泰國工業(yè)展望

2023-2025THAILANDINDUSTRYOUTLOOKJanuary

2023Krungsri

Research2023-2025

THAILAND

INDUSTRY

OUTLOOKThe

Thailand

Industry

Outlook

over

the

next

3

years

(2023-2025)

covers

a

range

of

factors

that

will

haveimpacts

on

industries.

Those

factors

include

challenges

and

opportunities

to

represent

the

attractiveness

ofeachindustry

that

reliesonthe

macroeconomic

environment

andsector-specific

factors.The

Macroeconomic

environments

The

world

economy,

2023-2025:

The

major

economies

will

slow,

while

trends

towardsdeglobalization

are

likely

to

gather

strength.

Economic

growth

is

expected

to

slow

over

the

next

three

years,

dropping

from

2022’s

forecast

of3.2%

to

2.7%

in

2023

and

then

rebounding

to

around

3.0%

in

each

of

2024

and

2025.

Although

thedrag

placed

on

global

growth

by

the

COVID-19

pandemic

is

now

lifting,

this

has

been

replaced

by

ahost

of

other

factors,

most

notably

the

war

in

Ukraine

and

the

subsequent

imposition

of

sanctions

onRussia

and

the

accompanying

energy

crunch.

The

world

economy

is

also

battling

against

headwindsgenerated

by

the

economic

slowdown

in

China

and

the

deepening

and

widening

gulf

separatingChina

from

the

US.

The

polarization

of

global

trade

that

the

latter

is

driving

is

then

havingconsequences

for

supply

chains

worldwide,

and

this

may

well

accelerate

trends

towardsdeglobalization.

Beyond

this,

this

year’s

spike

in

energy

costs

and

the

surge

in

inflation

that

the

exitfrom

the

pandemic

helped

to

usher

in

has

pushed

central

banks

into

a

dramatically

more

hawkishstance

through

2022.

In

the

absence

of

a

central

bank

pivot,

this

will

likely

continue

into

2023

andthe

extended

pressure

resulting

from

rapid

rate

hikes

will

multiply

stresses

in

financial

markets

andadd

dramatically

to

the

cost

of

borrowing,

which

will

then

feed

through

into

a

negative

outlook

forboth

private-

and

public-sector

debt.

Overall,

the

global

economy

is

thus

at

risk

of

a

severeslowdown

in

2023,

though

the

softening

of

demand

would

also

help

to

dampen

what

are

currentlyintense

inflationary

fires.

This

might

then

force

policy

makers

to

shift

their

stance

as

they

look

tohead

off

a

protracted

slump,

and

thus

a

slowdown

may

help

to

open

the

way

to

a

relaxation

ofmonetary

tightening

inthe

majoreconomies.Figure

1:

GDPGrowth

(%)1050ChinaWorldUSJapan-5Eurozone-102016201720182019202020212022E

2023F

2024F

2025FSource:

IMFWorld

Economic

Outlook

(Oct

2022)2Krungsri

Research

The

US

economy

is

expected

to

remain

sluggish

over

2023-2025,

with

growth

slowing

from

1.6%

in2022

to

just

1.0%

in

2023

and

then

clawing

its

way

back

to

1.2%

and

1.8%

in

2024

and

2025,respectively.

Alongside

this,

inflation

has

run

north

of

8.0%

over

the

second

and

third

quarters

of2022

and

although

it

will

soften,

inflation

will

remain

above

the

2.0%

target

for

the

next

2

years.

Assuch,

the

Fed

will

likely

continue

with

its

current

aggressive

rate

rises.

From

a

start

of

just

0-0.25%

atthe

beginning

of

2022,

federal

funds

rate

hit

4.25-4.5%

range

by

the

end

of

the

2022

and

willcontinue

on

their

upward

track

to

5.0-5.25%

range

by

the

end

of

2023.

This

will

necessarily

havesignificant

consequences

forconsumption

and

investment

and,

over

2023

and

2024,

the

employmentfigures.

Through

2025,

growth

will

remain

somewhat

underwhelming.

The

Fed

currently

sees

ratesdropping

to

4.1%

in

2024

and

3.1%

in

2025

and

this

should

help

to

breathe

life

back

into

theeconomy.

Nevertheless,

the

policy

rate

will

remain

elevated

relative

to

long-term

rates

of

2.5%

andthe

maintenance

of

tight

monetary

policy

will

drag

on

growth.

The

US

is

thus

now

exposed

toelevated

levels

of

risk

as

a

result

of

the

scale

and

pace

of

these

rate

hikes,

a

situation

that

is

thenbeing

worsenedby

intense

geopolitical

tensions

andthe

polarization

of

the

globaleconomy.

The

Eurozone

is

entering

a

difficult

and

protracted

energy

crisis,

and

over

2023

to

2025,

this

willplay

a

part

in

restraining

average

annual

growth

to

just

1.4%,

which

would

be

a

sharp

turnaround

on2022’sexpansionof3.1%.Thisisadirectconsequenceof

theRussia-Ukrainewar,

andinparticularthecriticalshortfall

in

energy

supplies

and

theneed

tohikeratestocombat

inflation.This

is

then

holdingback

business

investment

and,

as

the

cost

of

living

has

exploded

and

the

burden

of

meeting

debtrepayments

has

worsened,

household

consumption

has

softened.

Over

the

longer

term,

there

is

alsoa

real

risk

that

the

energy

crisis

may

significantly

erode

the

competitiveness

of

Eurozone

industries.TheEuropean

CentralBank

(ECB)is

also

expected

tocontinue

with

its

policy

of

rate

hikes,with

theselikely

reaching

2.25%

by

theend

of

2023.

Unfortunately,

tightening

monetary

policy

into

the

onset

ofan

economic

slowdown

will

pile

on

risk

for

the

more

fragile

members

of

the

Eurozone,

most

notablyGreece,

Italy,

and

Spain,

although

more

positively,

the

existence

of

the

Transmission

ProtectionInstrument

(TPI)

will

allow

the

ECB

to

support

bond

markets

and

this

should

help

the

continent

avoidarerunofthe

2010Eurozone

crisis.StructuralproblemswillcontinuetoholdbacktheJapaneseeconomyandfollowing

a1.7%expansionin

2022,

growth

rates

will

slip

to

an

average

of

just

1.3%

over

2023-2025.

Now

that

the

country

has(asofOctober2022)fullyreopened

to

overseasarrivals,amajordriverofgrowthoverthe

immediatefuture

will

be

recovery

in

the

tourism

sector.

However,

overall

exports

will

struggle

in

the

face

of

theglobal

slowdown,

although

the

easing

of

supply

bottlenecks

in

the

automobile

sector

will

help

boostexportsthere.The

recentslumpin

the

valueofthe

yenwillalsoactasastimulusinoverseasmarkets.While

the

labor

market

has

strengthened

and

a

decision

has

recently

been

made

that

by

the

end

ofthis

year,

the

minimum

wage

will

be

hiked

by

3.3%,

the

highest

rate

in

history,

the

prevalence

of

adeflationarymindset

meansthatconsumersremainwaryabouttheirspendingandassuch,householdconsumption

is

depressed.

Against

this

backdrop,

officials

continue

to

believe

that

recovery

willremain

weak

and

inflation

will

undershoot

the

central

bank’s

target.

Given

this,

the

Bank

of

Japan

isexpected

to

keep

monetary

policy

loose.

Thus,

interest

rates

will

remain

negative

and

bond

yieldcurve

controls

willstayin

place

until

inflationis

brought

upto

the

long-termtarget

of2.0%.A

broad

constellation

of

factors

will

keep

China’s

rate

of

growth

below

its

pre-COVID-19

level,

andso

although

growth

will

accelerate

from

2022’s

3.2%

to

an

annual

average

of

4.5%

over

2023-2025,this

will

still

be

significantly

below

the

pre-pandemic

average

of

6-7%.

Among

these

factors

will

be:the

slowdown

in

global

trade;

earlier

moves

to

suppress

excessive

profit

taking

and

to

weakenmonopolies;

the

deep

troubles

that

continue

to

rock

the

real

estate

sector;

and

longer-termdemographic

problems

as

China

transitions

to

an

aging

society.

Over

the

next

3

years,

Chinesegrowth

will

largely

be

driven

by

the

relaxation

of

pandemic

controls,

recovery

in

the

labor

market,government

spending

on

infrastructure

construction,

government

policy

that

aims

to

make

Chinamore

self-sufficientbydeepeningandextending

domesticsupplychainsand

their

connectionsacrossChinese

industry,

and

fiscal

and

monetary

policythat

willbetargeted

atthegroups

most

affected

bythe

pandemic

and

those

singled

out

by

the

authorities

for

additional

growth-related

assistance.However,

risks

are

rising

rapidly

from

theworsening

of

China-Taiwan

and

China-US

tensions,

and

thismay

lead

to

a

much

more

clearly

defined

global

polarization

between

the

two

camps.

In

addition

toweakening

global

supply

chains,

especially

those

connected

to

technology,

this

would

also

addconsiderablyto

the

risksfacedboth

by

the

world

economy

andbyfinancialmarkets.Krungsri

Research3

Structural

changes

to

the

world

economy…

long-term

impacts

for

business

and

industry

The

world

economy

is

increasingly

dependent

on

the

service

sector,

and

this

now

has

a

major

roleto

play

globally

in

generating

income

and

securing

employment.

Beyond

this,

services

also

amplifythe

efficiency

of

manufacturing

industries,

for

example

through

those

connected

to

finance,distribution,

and

transport.

In

developed

economies

such

as

the

US

and

the

UK,

the

service

sectorcontributes

an

average

of

around

75%

of

gross

domestic

product

(GDP)

and

provides

over

70%

ofjobs.

In

these

countries,

modern

services

such

as

finance,

IT,

and

intellectual

property

are

majordrivers

heavily

dependent

on

access

to

a

highly

skilled

workforce

and

the

application

of

moderntechnology,

to

generate

considerable

added-value

to

the

overall

service

sector.

By

contrast

anddespite

steadily

increasing

in

importance,

as

of

2021,

the

service

sector

contributed

56.7%

of

ThaiGDP

(Figure

2)

and

provided

52%

of

jobs,

leaving

Thailand

some

distance

behind

the

advancedeconomies.Thisis

partlybecause

the

countryis

stilldependentontraditional

services

suchastourism(the

source

of

17.8%

of

GDP

in

2019),

wholesale

and

retail

trade,

and

hotels

and

restaurants.

Bycontrast,

high

value-added

modern

services

provide

just

14.0%

of

Thai

GDP

(source:

Bank

ofThailand),and

these

areconcentrated

infinance

andtelecommunications.Figure

2:Shareofservicesector

in

GDP%ofGDPWorld20206560202155Thailand504519972000

2003

2006

20092012201520182021Source:

World

Bank,Office

of

the

National

Economic

and

Social

Development

Council

(NESDC)The

COVID-19

pandemic

cast

a

harsh

and

revealing

light

on

the

fragility

of

Thailand’s

traditional

services,and

it

is

imperative

that

Thailand

now

makes

a

determined

effort

to

transition

to

a

greater

reliance

onmodern

services.

This

will

entail

a

much

more

extended

use

of

technology

to

invigorate

the

businessecosystem1/,

and

to

channel

growth

into

other

services,

such

as

medicine

and

healthcare,

logistics,

and

theprovision

of

digital

content.

In

addition

to

generating

greater

added-value,

this

will

also

help

to

pave

theway

to

the

servicification

of

(and

hence

greater

product

differentiation

within)

industrial

manufacturing(e.g.,

through

the

use

of

artificial

intelligence

and

big

data

in

design

and

consultancy),

in

the

processhelping

businesses

better

respond

to

global

demand.

The

necessity

of

moving

in

this

direction

isunderlined

by

data

from

2020

that

show

that

global

imports

of

services

are

concentrated

heavily

in

themodern

service

segment;

research

and

development,

professional

consultancy

and

management

services,and

technology

and

IT

services

accounted

for

28.2%

of

all

service

imports

globally.

This

was

followed

inimportance

by

transportation

(20.5%),

tourism

(11.6%),

intellectual

property

(9.6%),

telecommunications,computing,

and

information

services

(8.6%),

finance

(5.9%),

insurance

and

pensions

(4.1%),

and

personal,cultural

and

recreational

services

(1.7%).

Moreover,

broadening

the

range

of

service

exports

will

help

toreduce

the

economy’s

exposure

to

the

risk

of

over

reliance

on

any

one

industryHowever,

increasing

the

contribution

of

services

to

Thai

GDP

is

likely

to

be

a

slow

and

drawn-out

processbecause

at

present:

(i)

The

Thai

workforce

is

relatively

unskilled

with

regard

to

technology

and

so

there

isonly

limited

pressureto

innovate,

while

the

necessary

ecosystem

ofresearch

and

development,

incentives,qualitative

data,

and

regulatory,

technological,

and

financial

infrastructure

is

largely

absent;

and

(ii)

TheThai

regulatory

environment

is

relatively

restrictive

with

regard

to

foreign

investment

in

the

servicesector,

especially

in

comparison

to

the

developed

economies.

Indeed,

the

OECD’s

2021

Services

TradeRestrictiveness

Index

placed

Thailand

49

out

of

the

50

countries

assessed,

indicating

that

the

Thai

servicesector

is

operating

with

more

restrictions

relative

to

a

large

number

of

countries,

and

this

is

then

addingto

the

barriers

placed

in

the

way

of

inflows

of

investment

and

technology.

As

such,

domestic

innovationand

the

development

of

new

technology

is

restricted,

and

this

represents

a

challenge

for

thegovernment,

businesses

and

industries

to

move

forwards

a

service-based

economy,

an

outcome

thatwould

help

to

set

Thailand

on

the

path

to

long-term

sustainable

growth.1/

TradePolicy

andStrategyOffice4Krungsri

ResearchFigure

3:

The2021

STRIofThailandishigh

compared

toothercountries

in

theSTRIsampleSTRIAverage0.60.50.40.30.20.10Source:

OECD

The

global

economy

has

been

increasingly

affected

by

the

imposition

of

barriers

to

trade

asnational

governments

look

to

protect

domestic

markets.

This

process

has

been

accelerated

by

theCOVID-19

pandemic

and

at

the

start

of

the

year,

the

outbreak

of

war

in

Ukraine,

the

prolongation

ofwhich

is

adding

to

the

pressure

to

keep

these

barriers

in

place.

However,

trade

tensions

predatethese

more

recent

developments;

for

example,

the

worsening

trade

relations

between

the

US

andChina

that

was

seen

over

the

years

prior

to

the

pandemic.

The

World

Trade

Organization

(WTO)

hassaid

that

at

present,

member

states

have

in

place

148

COVID-19-related

barriers

to

trade.

82%

ofthese

restrict

exports,

and

one

result

of

this

was

a

slowdown

in

the

manufacture

and

globaldistribution

of

COVID

vaccines

and

othermedicalsupplies

and

equipment.In

addition,43members

ofthe

WTO

have

placed

a

total

of

71

sanctions

on

Russia,

and

27

countries,

including

China,

Hungary,Argentina,

and

Indonesia,

have

export

restrictions

in

place

that

are

targeted

at

maintaining

domesticfood

security.

Alongside

this,

environmental

regulations

are

increasingly

operating

as

barriers

totrade,

especially

those

that

aim

to

reduce

the

release

of

greenhouse

gases

(i.e.,

carbon

barriers

totrade).

One

example

of

this

is

the

EU’s

‘European

Green

Deal’.

As

part

of

this,

the

EU

has

introducedthe

Carbon

Border

Adjustment

Mechanism

(CBAM).

When

this

is

fully

enforced

in

2027,

a

carbon

taxwill

be

placed

on

specified

importstothe

EU,

and

this

will

affect

Thai

exports

of

steel,

aluminum,

andplastics.

Likewise,

the

US

Clean

Competition

Act

(CCA)

will

place

a

carbon

tax

on

carbon-intensiveproducts

such

as

fossil

fuels,

refined

oil

products,

petrochemicals,

fertilizers,

iron

and

steel

goods,and

coal.

The

Thai

public

and

private

sectors

will

thus

need

to

act

quickly

to

develop

technologicalsolutions

that

will

help

to

bring

the

carbon

intensity

of

exports

down

to

acceptable

levels.Stakeholders

should

also

use

the

BCG

model

to

put

the

economy

securely

on

the

path

to

net

zeroemissions,

which

would

then

help

to

ensure

that

Thai

industry

travels

in

the

same

direction

as

itsglobal

peers.

New

technology

is

taking

on

an

ever-more

central

place

in

the

structural

reform

of

industry

ascompanies

look

to

maintain

and

extend

their

competitiveness.

Within

the

‘new

normal’,

digitaltechnology

is

thus

becoming

a

core

driver

of

the

creation

of

added-value

in

the

manufacturing

andservicesectors.

This

isthenallowing

formoresustainablegrowththat

is

built

on

secure

global

supplychains

and

that

responds

to

growing

interest

in

environmental

protection,

especially

with

regard

tolowering

energy

consumption.

Within

this

context,

technology

that

will

assume

a

particularlyimportant

role

over

the

next

three

yearswillinclude

the

following.

The

Internet

of

Things

(IoT):

IoT

will

play

a

role

gathering

data

from

sensors

in

everything

fromeveryday

gadgets

to

smart

factory

machines,

though

this

will

be

especially

important

in

industriesinvolved

in

theproduction

of

electronics,

auto

parts,

electrical

appliances,

and

medicalequipment.In

the

service

sector,

IoT

applications

are

being

used

in

hotels,

hospitals,

and

logistics

operations.The

increasing

spread

of

5G

services

and

improved

data

transfer

speeds

is

also

helping

IoTapplications

find

a

growing

number

of

uses

involving

machine

learning

with

a

higher

processingspeed

through

sensor

system.Krungsri

Research5

Robotics:

Theuseofrobotsis

increasinglywidespreadin

themanufacturingandservicesectors,inparticular

in

the

auto

manufacturing,

healthcare,

and

logistics

industries,

where

robots’

ability

tocarry

out

precision

work

helps

to

increase

safety.

Fortune

Business

Insights

estimates

that

theglobal

market

for

robotic

systems

will

enjoy

annual

growth

of

10%

over

2020-2028,

although

atpresent,

the

use

of

fully

autonomous

manufacturing

robots

carries

a

high

price

tag

and

so

mostindustrial

applications

are

of

cobots

(collaborative

robots)

that

are

deployed

alongside

humanstaff.

Artificial

intelligence

(AI):

When

AIisused

in

industry,itis

oftencombinedwithothertechnologiessuch

as

cloud

computing

and

IoT

for

use

in

big

data

analytics

in,

for

example,

the

auto

andelectronicsindustries,

where

AIhelpsto

reduce

waste.AIisalsousedinmedicine

tohelptrackthespreadofinfections,in

therealestateindustryto

helpwith

thedesignofbuildings,andinmoderntrade

to

predict

trends

inconsumer

demand.

5G

technology:

Commercial

5G

use

cases

are

multiplying

rapidly,

especially

in

manufacturing,agricultural,

construction,

and

telemedicine

contexts,

where

5G

helps

with

the

remote

control

ofdrones

and

robots.

Next

Move

Strategy

Consulting

estimates

that

the

global

market

for

5Ginfrastructure

will

see

annual

growth

of

66.0%

over

2020-2030.

Locally,

the

Thai

government

haspushed

forward

with

the

development

of

5G

digital

infrastructure

that

will

support

cloud

AIsystems

and

metaverseplatforms.Thisis

part

ofthewider

plan

topromoteinvestment

in

the

new,high-tech

S-curve

manufacturing

andservice

industries.

Drone:

Drones

(remotely

controlled

pilotless

aircraft)

are

reducing

companies’

dependency

onlabor

and

cutting

the

time

taken

to

survey

land,

especially

in

agriculture

and

construction,

wherethey

can

beused

in

situations

that

would

bedangerous

forhumans.Electric

drones

are

alsobeingused

in

logistics,

where

their

ability

to

take

off

and

land

vertically

makes

deliveries

easier.Currently,

drone

technology

is

being

used

to

develop

unmanned

aerial

vehicles

in

Japan,

China,andEurope.Blockchain:

Blockchains

are

a

means

of

storing

data

on

distributed

ledgers

that

are

accessible

tothose

within

a

network

and

that

allow

for

the

secure

and

safe

confirmation

and

recording

oftransactions.

Blockchains

are

now

finding

uses

in

a

wide

range

of

industries

beyond

finance,especially

in

retail,

transport,

and

manufacturing.

National

Digital

Identity

therefore

predicts

thatthe

global

blockchain

industry

will

be

worth

USD

11.7

billion

in

2022,

increasing

to

USD

20.0

billionby2024.3D

printing:

Advances

in

3D

printing

technology

now

allow

for

the

rapid,

low-cost

design

andproduction

of

a

huge

range

of

products.

This

is

thus

adding

to

companies’

competitiveness

byproviding

them

with

the

means

for

mass

customization,

which

is

then

helping

them

to

respond

todiversifying

consumer

demand

for

attractively

priced

goods.

3D

printing

is

also

establishing

amore

central

role

in

manufacturing

supply

chains

in,

for

example,

the

production

of

auto

parts,electronics

equipment,

medical

devices,

and

construction

materials,

in

the

latter

case

for

theprinting

offloors,walls,

androofs.

Synthetic

biology:

The

most

common

application

of

synthetic

biology

is

in

the

production

of

newtypes

of

agricultural

products

that

are

designed

to

meet

demand

from

the

growing

number

ofhealth-conscious

consumers

and

elderly

consumers.

This

includes

cultured

meet

grown

from

stemcells

from

the

target

animal

(e.g.,

from

cows,

chickens,

pigs

and

tuna),

and

in

the

manufacture

ofplant-based

meat,

that

is,

plant

products

that

have

the

taste

and

texture

of

real

meat.

Theseproducts

reduce

exposure

to

some

of

the

health

risks

related

to

meat

consumption

and

provideanalternative

source

ofprotein

inthe

event

ofoutbreaksoflivestock

disease.6Krungsri

Research

Global

value

chains

are

shortening

as

countries

are

moving

to

increase

their

self-reliance

and

toboost

their

capacity

for

domestic

technological

innovation.

As

part

of

this,

participation

in

globalvalue

chains

is

dropping

off

as

many

developed

economies

try

to

increase

the

domestic

productionof

technology-intensive

intermediate

goods

at

theexpense

of

imports.

Likewise,

China

is

also

turningaway

from

global

trade

and

in

its

place,

the

country

is

stepping

up

investments

in

developing

muchmore

comprehensive

domestic

manufacturing

supply

chains.

These

trends

have

been

turbochargedby

the

COVID-19

pandemic

and

intensifying

geopolitical

tensions

that

include

both

the

Ukraine-Russiawar

and

the

worsening

relationship

between

the

US

and

China

over

the

fate

of

Taiwan.

As

a

result,competition

between

the

major

powers

over

the

development

of

new

technology

is

worsening,

withthis

particularly

intense

overthe

design

and

production

of

chips

since

in

the

digital

era,

these

are

anabsolutely

core

upstream

product.

Thus,

in

2022,

countries

have

been

rushing

to

support

thedevelopment

of

indigenous

chip

industries,

with

the

US,

German

and

Japanese

governmentsannouncing

that

they

would

make

available

funding

worth

respectively

USD

52

billion,

EUR

10

billionand

USD

6.8

billion

to

try

to

attract

major

chip

manufacturers

to

their

countries.

In

addition,

the

UShas

imposed

restrictions

on

the

export

to

China

of

electronic

design

automation

(EDA)

software

thatis

used

in

the

production

of

the

most

advance