某咨詢中國(guó)callcener外包投資項(xiàng)目咨詢報(bào)告

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TRANS-COSMOSINC.CHINAENTRYSTRATEGYPRESENTATIONFebruary8,2001AGENDAExecutiveSummaryCallCenterBusinessMarketOverviewCCCustomerSegmentationIn-houseusersOutsourcersDemandCustomerEconomicsCompetitionRecommendationsSuccessbusinessmodelPartneringstrategyE-CommerceMarketOverviewTCITianjinCurrentSituationAnalysisRecommendationsAGENDAExecutiveSummaryCallCenterBusinessMarketOverviewCCCustomerSegmentationIn-houseusersOutsourcersDemandCustomerEconomicsCompetitionRecommendationsSuccessbusinessmodelPartneringstrategyE-CommerceMarketOverviewTCITianjinCurrentSituationAnalysisRecommendationsCHINAISBECOMINGAHIGHLYDYNAMICCCMARKETChina’scallcentermarkettookoffsince1998withanannualgrowthrateover100%Non-pagingmarketsizereached54,000seatsin2000HoweverpastgrowthwaslargelydrivenbydemandsfromadministrativedrivensectorOver60%ofthenewCCdemandcomesfromfourpillarindustries:Banking,PostServices,Fixed-lineTelecom,andInsuranceDistinctivepurchasingbehavioridentifiedforthesepurchasesFuturegrowthwillbepropelledbyserviceorientedandoutsourcingsegmentsServiceorientedsegmentexpectedtobe50%oftotalCCmarketOutsourcingmarketwillgrowatleast50%ayearforthenextfewyearsHoweverlargevarianceexistsforoutsourcingsegmentgrowthOverall,ChinaCCmarketisexpectedtoreachover130,000seatsin2004and340,000seatsin2010CCOURSOURCERSAREEMERGINGBUTSTILLEXPLORING(I)Currently,CCoutsourcingbusinessisbrandnewinChinaNomorethan30companiesprovidingmerelyabout3,200seatsinserviceOver70-80%supplyconcentratedin4majorcitiesFutureoutsourcingdevelopmentishighlydependentoncurrentplayer’sperformanceandstrategiesPotentialcustomersconcernedaboutquality,confidentiality,informationprocessingability,HR,andpriceGrowthwillfluctuatewidelyaccordingtotheindustry’sabilitytosatisfycustomerconcernsandrequirementsnowInshortterm,competitionwillbeminimumduetohighlydifferentiatedpositionsandlargenumberofunexploitedpotentialoutsourcingcustomersInmediumterm,pagingcompaniescanbepowerfulanddesperatecompetitorsinthelow-endoutsourcingmarketThatmightdistorttheindustryprofitabilityandtriggerviciouscompetitionHoweverhigh-endoutsourcingmarketmightbeintactCurrently,onlylow-price/standardservicevendorsareprofitableUtilization,andtherefore,long-termcustomers,isthekeyforprofitabilityHowever,high-pricedoutsourcingsolutionsnotwidelyacceptedbythemarketButinthelong-run,webelievehigh-endserviceswillbevaluedbycustomersWeareencouragedbyrecentpositivenewsonclients’long-termcommitmentstohigh-endoutsourcersWithChina’spendingWTOEntryandcontinuedeconomicgrowth,webelieveit’sthedirectionHigh-endoutsourcerscanwinthegamebyaggressivelyestablishinglong-termclientbase,andtargetingvariousoutsourcingopportunitiesalongthevaluechainFivesuccessfulstrategiesidentifiedfornewcustomerdevelopmentTelemarketingandvalue-addedinformationservicemostlikelytobeoutsourcedCCOURSOURCERSAREEMERGINGBUTSTILLEXPLORING(II)TCISHOULDPARTNERWITHRIGHTLOCALCCOUTSOURCERSApartneringstrategyisessentialforTCItocapturethegreatopportunitiesinChinaTCIlacksabunchoflocalcapabilities,whiletimeiscontingentTCIshouldtargetbothmoneymaking,andmoneylosingtechadvancedoutsourcersduringnegotiationprocess,basedontwoplausiblepartnershipstrategiesMoneymakingones:shareprofitsandleveragelocalstrengthMoneylosingones:controlandnegotiateforabargaindealConsideringthelimitednumberofcandidatesinChinaandTCI’stightschedule,abroadersearchcanstrengthenTCI’snegotiationpositionFivepromisingoutsourcersidentifiedduringtheinterviewprocessMoneymakingones:ChinaMotion,800Teleservices,andCompaq-StarMoneylosingones:TCY,ITSShanghaiEC:ONLYSOFTWAREFIRMSANDSIsWORTHPURSUINGAlthoughunderbooming,ChinaE-CommercemarketareexperiencingbottlenecksOnlinepopulationandrevenuesgrew10timesinthepast3yearsHowever,macro-environmentandinfrastructureareproblematic……andonlyfewICP/ISPsaremakingmoneyICP,ISPandtechnologycompanies,asasector,arenotworthTCI’spursuitICP:MarketisdownwhilemostChinaICPsarestillattheirearlystagedevelopmentISP:Highlyfragmentedandregulated,whichsuffocatebothforeignparticipationandprofitabilityTechcompanies:SuperioronescanhardlysurviveinChinaHowever,severaltopventuresintheabovesectorsarequiteinteresting,whichareidentifiedandillustratedindetailforTCI’sfurtherinterestICP:51;S;A;DISP:263Net;EastnetTCI-TJ:RSTRUCTURINGANDBUILDINGSTRATEGICALLIANCESTCI-TJexperienceddifficultiesduetobothpromotionandmanagementissuesThoughimproving,thefirmisintrinsicallyuncompetitiveinChinamarketItshouldrestructureforbetterperformance…RedefinecorporatemissionsandstrategiesRestructureprojectarrangement,reporting,measurementandincentivesystemsRefocusitssalesonJapanesecompaniesinChinaandinJapan…andfindstrategicallianceforTCI’sChinaexpansionTCIshouldonlypartnerwithprestigiouslocalsoftwarecompanyorsystemintegratorsWisewayscreenedallthepotentialcandidateslistsandfunneleddown5mostpromisingcompaniesforTCI’sfurthercontactLongshine;GlobaleForce;eBIS;ModernComputer;HuatengSoftwareAGENDAExecutiveSummaryCallCenterBusinessMarketOverviewCCCustomerSegmentationIn-houseusersOutsourcersDemandCustomerEconomicsCompetitionRecommendationsSuccessbusinessmodelPartneringstrategyE-CommerceMarketOverviewTCITianjinCurrentSituationAnalysisRecommendationsCCMERELYABUSINESSPRACTICEBEFORE1997HightelecomchargeLowphonepenetrationWeakserviceattitudeWidespreadindustrymonopolyCommercialCClessthan10,000seatsin1997(2)Phonecallcharge(centsperminute)ChinaUSPhonepenetration(%)#ofphones(1)(million)1997825399229AutomotiveExample:ExpertSurvey1997PriceCompetitionfocus(%)(1)Fixedline+mobile(2)Excludingabout50,000seatsinpagingcompanySource:WorldDevelopmentReport1999/2000;ChinaAutoMarket1997;JardingFlemingResearch;interviewsQualityServiceStyleNationalmonopolyBankingTelecomInsuranceUtilitityRegionalprotectedSteelAutoPetrochemicalTobacco...Monopolizedindustryestimated55%ofindustrialoutputHighertelecompenetrationCOMMERCIALCCTOOKOFFSINCE1998

EspeciallyinNon-PagingServiceSectorPenetration(%)YearCAGRFixedlineMobile37%83%Non-pagingCCseats(’000)YearCAGR=129%IntensifiedcompetitionMostindustriescapacityoverproductionDecliningretailpricesYearGDPindexRetailpriceindexIndexGrowingawarenessoftechnologyInternetusers(mio)E-Commercerevenue(US$M)GraduallyreducedtelecomfeeSource:JardingFlemingResearch;ChinaStatisticsYearbook;interviews;OECD;ChinaTelecomLongdistance(RMB/min)(1.2)(0.8)(1.0)(0.7)

>800km<800kmCCINDUSTRYWILLREACH330-370KSEATSIN2010IllustrationIdentifymajordrivingfactorstoCCadoption- marketcompetitionandserviceawareness- telecomchargesandphonepenetrationQuantifyrelationshipsbetweendriversandCCadoptionhereweusedUSbenchmarkProjectCCdevelopmentbyforecastingdevelopmentofdriversProjectCCpenetrationinmajoruser’sindustries- banking,telecom,insurance…AddupnumbersofeachindustrytogiveaCCmarketoverviewInterviewindustryexpertsorknowledgeableindustrypractitionersfortheiropinionofCCmarketgrowth- systemintegratorsandexperts2004projection(1)(’000seats)1581321452010projection(1)(’000seats)368337N.A.DrivingfactoranalysisBottom-upanalysisExpertsopinions(1)WithoutpagingcompanyTOP-DOWNAPPROACHREVEALSAPROMISINGENDGAMEPhonelineper1000peopleCCagentsper1000peopleUSbenchmarkY=0.00146X+4.79DeflatedtelecomfeeindexPhonelineper1000peopleChinaphonelineYearNon-pagingCCseats(‘000)Source:USTelephoneStatistics;Datamonitor;MIIdata;ChinaStatisticsYearbook1998992000010410REDUCINGTELECOMCHARGESWILLBOOSTFIXED-LINEADOPTIONBackupCompetitionpushesfurthertelecomreductionMostalternativesatleast50%cheaperIP,internetphonecall,“callback”services…Ministrydeterminedtofurtherreducetelecomcharges“Currenttelecomchargestilldoesnotreachitsoptimumstageyet”- MinisterofMIITelecomreductionprojectionPhonepenetrationper1000Deflatedpriceindex(1)Phonelineper1000peopleYear(1)PricedeflatedbyGDPindexSource:ChinaTelecomChargesPolicyBook;BCGanalysisTELECOMISTHEMOSTSIGNIFICANTCCUSERNOW

Bottom-upAnalysisIndustryTelecomMobileBankingInsurancePostserviceManufacturingComputerAirlineSecurityCourierHomeapplianceTVsellingOthersOverallProjectedseatsCAGR200025,0007,6674,5452,0001,6001,5018005942572402403006,67551,419200435,71422,85711,1003,7606,0007,5195,2504,1004,1581,0002,4601,00026,669131,588201041,66750,00047,0009,85020,83325,18414,0009,60032,6003,3338,8002,00071,965336,8322000-049%31%25%17%39%50%60%62%101%43%79%35%41%26%2004-103%14%27%17%23%22%18%15%41%22%24%12%18%17%Source:interviews;onlineresearch;expertsopinions;BCGanalysisEXPERTOPINIONSREVEALAMARKETOF145,000IN2004“Fastdevelopmentisexpectedtocontinueinthenextfiveyears.Ibelievethatcallcentersseatswillgrowat30%ayearforthenextfiveyears(whichmeans145,000in2004)”Director,CTIForum“Comparedto1999,in2000callcenterseatsincreasedby142%,or16,000seats”ChinaComputerNews“Inthenextthreeyears,weprojectthatcallcenterseatswilldouble.It’sourconservativeestimate.”ManagerofBusinessDevelopmentDept,HuaweiSource:BCGinterviewsAGENDAExecutiveSummaryCallCenterBusinessMarketOverviewCCCustomerSegmentationIn-houseusersOutsourcersDemandCustomerEconomicsCompetitionRecommendationsSuccessbusinessmodelPartneringstrategyE-CommerceMarketOverviewTCITianjinCurrentSituationAnalysisRecommendationsCHINACCUSERBASEVERYDIFFERENTFROMU.S.SelectedindustryexplanationTelecomChinatelecomcallcenterinvestmentisstillquitegovernmentdriven.Topromote“189”serviceline,MIIdemandcallcenterateachcity/countylevelManufacturingManufacturingCCusagestillnotwidelyadoptedyet.Moststate-ownedcompaniesareunwillingandunabletoinvestinserviceRemoteshoppingAlthoughremoteshoppingisthebiggestCCuserintheUS,it’smerelythecaseherebecauseofinconvenientpayment,creditanddeliverysystem.Also,shoppingconvenienceinmetropolitanareaandgeneralpoorconsumptionpowermakeremoteshoppingeconomicallyunsoundOthersOutsourcingSecurityTVsellingNews&mediaAirlineComputer/TechManufacturingPostserviceInsuranceBankingMobileFixed-lineTelecomChinaUSOthersOutsourcingTransportHealthcareUtilitiesRemoteshoppingSecuritiesAirlineTechnologyManufacturingInsuranceBankingTelecomOur1.5monthsinterviewshavewellcoveredtheaboveindustriesSource:Datamonitor;Interviews;onlineresearch;expertopinions;BCGanalysisCC賊MAR頸KET枯RO徐UGH喇LY棗SEG旨MEN感TED潮IN意TO角FOU訊RC奇ATE航GOR稿IESAcc載ord帽ing你to躲Ar機(jī)ea干of反CC恢Usa都ge,墻an映dW酬ill湯ing煎nes民st屬oO旅uts粒our杠ceSele目cted皺ind匆ustr貸yex幸ampl碎esWil魚lin神gne尿ss斤to賢out您sou尿rceHig以hLowSer篩vic至e-o肝rie京nte輕dOuts架ourc盞ingGene謙ric名serv改iceAdmi杯n-dr猜ivenSecu疊riti棵esHome暈app徑lian若ceCom竊put碎er/節(jié)tec鮮hno負(fù)log經(jīng)yCour遺ier濕serv擔(dān)icePubl蜘icat怨ionTV帆sel智lin乎gMess嫌agin灶gTra腫velSim芽ple老or禍der昏ta躍kin陶gPagi景ngTel辰eco遣mIns繼ura觀nceBankPos奧ts妄erv如iceCom欄mun貢ity沙se誕rvi嘆ceUtil揉ityCore沫are甲aNon中-co咳re跡are煎aArea惹of跳CCu昂sageTHR泄EE目CRI古TER震IA越TO祖DIS糞TIN憂GUI年SH分COR林EA嬸ND丹NON停-CO熄RE赴ARE可AIndu展stryCor鞠eA咐reaSec喬uri僚tie拒sCou搞rie融rs物erv艷iceComp寨uter扶/tec崇hnol層ogy“Gre青yA厭rea墳”Home邀app儀lian券ceBank暫ingInsu躲ranc傳ePubl認(rèn)icat罵ionTel邊eco嶺mTra掛vel某ingNon尸-co辰re染Are她a(擦gen念eri桃c)Pag召ing傳se坑rvi蠢ceMess敢agin擴(kuò)gTV重sel怪lin雀gUtil聞itie叔sFunc蟲tion中alit熔yTech抽nica則las進(jìn)sist污anceAfte陶rsal手ess施ervi牽ceCus僚tom稼er鐵com犧pla南int裳se對(duì)ttl溝eme池ntSou璃rci俱ng/崇sup疫pli版er色coo聾rdi項(xiàng)nat據(jù)ionCus僵tom頓er閥inq撈uir棒ys企ett票lem智entTele南mark礙etin拖gMess愁age登deli潮veri滲ngSim間ple傷or象der耳ta隨kin趣gCal收l(shuí)C橋ent慮er’唐si怨mpa恩ct鵲to齊ove域ral概lb植usi斑nes哄s- 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