特斯拉可持續(xù)性能源發(fā)展“宏圖計劃”第三篇章 Tesla-Master-Plan-Part-3-41正式版

MasterPlanPart3SustainableEnergyforAllofEarthMasterPlanPart3–SustainableEnergyforAllofEarth每日免費獲取報告1、每日微信群內(nèi)分享7+最新重磅報告；2、每日分享當日華爾街日報、金融時報；3、每周分享經(jīng)濟學人4、行研報告均為公開版，權(quán)利歸原作者所有，起點財經(jīng)僅分發(fā)做內(nèi)部學習。掃一掃二維碼關(guān)注公號回復：研究報告加入“起點財經(jīng)”微信群。。TableofContentsExecutiveSummary0304TheCurrentEnergyEconomyisWastefulThePlantoEliminateFossilFuels0505050709121.RepowertheExistingGridwithRenewables2.SwitchtoElectricVehicles3.SwitchtoHeatPumpsinResidential,Business&Industry4.ElectrifyHighTemperatureHeatDeliveryandHydrogen5.SustainablyFuelPlanes&Boats6.ManufacturetheSustainableEnergyEconomy12ModelingTheFullySustainableEnergyEconomy131819??EnergyStorageTechnologiesEvaluatedGenerationTechnologiesEvaluatedModelResults202021???USOnlyModelResults–MeetingNewElectri?cationDemandWorldModelResults–MeetingNewElectri?cationDemandBatteriesforTransportation22222324??VehiclesShipsandPlanes?WorldModelResults–Electri?cation&BatteriesforTransportationInvestmentRequiredLandAreaRequiredMaterialsRequiredConclusion26303137Appendix383839??Appendix:Generationandstorageallocationtoend-usesAppendix:BuildtheSustainableEnergyEconomy–EnergyIntensityPublishedonApril5,2023AcknowledgementsTeslaContributorsFelixMaireMatthewFoxMarkSimonsTurnerCaldwellAlexYooTeslaAdvisorsDrewBaglinoRohanMaWeappreciatethemanypriorstudiesthathavepushedthetopicofasustainableenergyeconomyforward,theworkoftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),U.S.DepartmentofEnergyNationalLaboratories,andtheinputfromvariousnon-Teslaa?liatedadvisors.VineetMehtaEliahGilfenbaumAndrewUlvestad02MasterPlanPart3–SustainableEnergyforAllofEarthExecutiveSummaryOnMarch1,2023,TeslapresentedMasterPlanPart3–aproposedpathtoreachasustainableglobalenergyeconomythroughend-useelectri?cationandsustainableelectricitygenerationandstorage.Thispaperoutlinestheassumptions,sourcesandcalculationsbehindthatproposal.Inputandconversationarewelcome.Theanalysishasthreemaincomponents:ElectricityDemandElectricitySupplyMaterialFeasibility&InvestmentDeterminethefeasibilityofmaterialneedsfortheelectriceconomyandmanufacturinginvestmentnecessarytoenableit.Forecasttheelectricitydemandofafullyelectri?edeconomythatmeetsglobalenergyneedswithoutfossilfuels.Constructaleast-costportfolioofelectricitygenerationandstorageresourcesthatsatis?eshourlyelectricitydemand.Figure1:ProcessoverviewThispaper?ndsasustainableenergyeconomyistechnicallyfeasibleandrequireslessinvestmentandlessmaterialextractionthancontinuingtoday’sunsustainableenergyeconomy.Whilemanypriorstudieshavecometoasimilarconclusion,thisstudyseekstopushthethinkingforwardrelatedtomaterialintensity,manufacturingcapacity,andmanufacturinginvestmentrequiredforatransitionacrossallenergysectorsworldwide.240TWh30TW$10T1/2StorageRenewablePowerManufacturingInvestmentTheEnergyRequired0.21%10%ZEROLandAreaRequired2022WorldGDPInsurmountableResourceChallengesFigure2:EstimatedResources&InvestmentsRequiredforMasterPlan303MasterPlanPart3–SustainableEnergyforAllofEarthTheCurrentEnergyEconomyisWastefulAccordingtotheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)2019WorldEnergyBalances,theglobalprimaryenergysupplyis165PWh/year,andtotalfossilfuelsupplyis134PWh/year1ab.37%(61PWh)isconsumedbeforemakingittotheendconsumer.Thisincludesthefossilfuelindustries’self-consumptionduringextraction/re?ning,andtransformationlossesduringelectricitygeneration.Another27%(44PWh)islostbyine?cientend-usessuchasinternalcombustionenginevehiclesandnaturalgasfurnaces.Intotal,only36%(59PWh)oftheprimaryenergysupplyproducesusefulworkorheatfortheeconomy.AnalysisfromLawrenceLivermoreNationalLabshowssimilarlevelsofine?ciencyfortheglobalandUSenergysupply2,3.Today’sEnergyEconomy(PWh/year)Figure3:GlobalEnergyFlowbySector,IEA&TeslaanalysisaThe2021and2022IEAWorldEnergyBalanceswerenotcompleteatthetimeofthiswork,andthe2020datasetshowedadecreaseinenergyconsumptionfrom2019,whichlikelywaspandemic-relatedandinconsistentwithenergyconsumptiontrends.bExcludedcertainfuelsuppliesusedfornon-energypurposes,suchasfossilfuelsusedinplasticsmanufacturing.04MasterPlanPart3–SustainableEnergyforAllofEarthThePlantoEliminateFossilFuelsInanelectri?edeconomywithsustainablygeneratedenergy,mostoftheupstreamlossesassociatedwithmining,re?ningandburningfuelstocreateelectricityareeliminated,asarethedownstreamlossesassociatedwithnon-electricend-uses.Someindustrialprocesseswillrequiremoreenergyinput(producinggreenhydrogenforexample),andsomeminingandre?ningactivityneedstoincrease(relatedtometalsforbatteries,solarpanels,windturbines,etc.)Thefollowing6stepsshowtheactionsneededtofullyelectrifytheeconomyandeliminatefossilfueluse.The6stepsdetailtheelectricitydemandassumptionsforthesustainableenergyeconomyandleadstotheelectricitydemandcurvethatismodeled.ModelingwasdoneontheUSenergyeconomyusinghigh-?delitydataavailablefromtheEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA)from2019-2022,andresultswerescaledtoestimateactionsneededfortheglobaleconomyusinga6xscalingfactorcbasedonthe2019energyconsumptionscalarbetweentheU.S.andtheworld,accordingtoIEAEnergyBalances.Thisisasigni?cantsimpli?cationandcouldbeanareaforimprovementinfutureanalyses,asglobalenergydemandsaredi?erentfromtheU.S.intheircompositionandexpectedtoincreaseovertime.ThisanalysiswasconductedontheU.S.duetoavailabilityofhigh-?delityhourlydata.Thisplanconsidersonshore/o?shorewind,solar,existingnuclearandhydroassustainableelectricitygenerationsources,andconsidersexistingbiomassassustainablealthoughitwilllikelybephasedoutovertime.Additionally,thisplandoesnotaddresssequesteringcarbondioxideemittedoverthepastcenturyoffossilfuelcombustion,beyondthedirectaircapturerequiredforsyntheticfuelgeneration;anyfutureimplementationofsuchtechnologieswouldlikelyincreaseglobalenergydemand.01RepowertheExistingGridwithRenewablesTheexistingUShourlyelectricitydemandismodeledasanin?exiblebaselinedemandtakenfromtheEIA.FourUSsub-regions4(Texas,Paci?c,Midwest,Eastern)aremodeledtoaccountforregionalvariationsindemand,renewableresourceavailability,weather,andgridtransmissionconstraints.Thisexistingelectricaldemandisthebaselineloadthatmustbesupportedbysustainablegenerationandstorage.Globally,65PWh/yearofprimaryenergyissuppliedtotheelectricitysector,including46PWh/yearoffossilfuels;howeveronly26PWh/yearofelectricityisproduced,duetoine?cienciestransformingfossilfuelsintoelectricityrenewablypowered,only26PWh/yearofsustainablegenerationwouldberequired.d.Ifthegridwereinstead02SwitchtoElectricVehiclesElectricvehiclesareapproximately4xmoree?cientthaninternalcombustionenginevehiclesduetohigherpowertraine?ciency,regenerativebrakingcapability,andoptimizedplatformdesign.Thisratioholdstrueacrosspassengervehicles,light-dutytrucks,andClass8semisasshownintheTable1.VehicleClassPassengerCarLightTruck/VanClass8TruckICEVehicleAvg24.2MPG5ElectricVehiclesE?ciencyRatio115MPGe(292Wh.mi)e4.8X4.3X4.2X17.5MPG75MPGe(450Wh.mi)22MPGe(1.7kWh.mi)f5.3MPG(diesel)fTable1:ElectricvsInternalCombustionVehicleE?ciencycdefUShourlytimeseriesdatausedasmodelinputsareavailableat/opendata/browser/fordownload.Embeddedinthe26PWh/yearis3.5PWh/yearofusefulheat,mostlyproducedinco-generationpowerstations,whichgenerateheatandpowerelectricity.Tesla’sglobal?eetaverageenergye?ciencyincludingModel3,Y,SandXTesla’sinternalestimatebasedonindustryknowledge05MasterPlanPart3–SustainableEnergyforAllofEarthThePlantoEliminateFossilFuelsAsaspeci?cexample,Tesla’sModel3energyconsumptionis131MPGevs.aToyotaCorollawith34MPG6,7,or3.9xlower,andtheratioincreaseswhenaccountingforupstreamlossessuchastheenergyconsumptionrelatedextractingandre?ningfuel(SeeFigure4).1200driveconsumptionupstreamlosses10008006004002000ToyotaCorollaModel3Figure4:ComparisonTeslaModel3vs.ToyotaCorollaToestablishtheelectricitydemandofanelectri?edtransportationsector,historicalmonthlyUStransportationpetroleumusage,excludingaviationandoceanshipping,foreachsub-regionisscaledbytheEVe?ciencyfactorabove(4x).Tesla’shourby8hourvehicle?eetchargingbehavior,splitbetweenin?exibleand?exibleportions,isassumedastheEVchargingloadcurveinthe100%electri?edtransportationsector.Supercharging,commercialvehiclecharging,andvehicleswith<50%stateofchargeareconsideredin?exibledemand.HomeandworkplaceACchargingare?exibledemandandmodeledwitha72-hourenergyconservationconstraint,modelingthefactthatmostdrivershave?exibilitytochargewhenrenewableresourcesareabundant.Onaverage,Tesladriverschargeonceevery1.7daysfrom60%SOCto90%SOC,soEVshavesu?cientrangerelativetotypicaldailymileagetooptimizetheirchargingaroundrenewablepoweravailabilityprovidedthereischarginginfrastructureatbothhomesandworkplaces.Globalelectri?cationofthetransportationsectoreliminates28PWh/yearoffossilfueluseand,applyingthe4xEVe?ciencyfactor,creates~7PWh/yearofadditionalelectricaldemand.06MasterPlanPart3–SustainableEnergyforAllofEarthThePlantoEliminateFossilFuels03SwitchtoHeatPumpsinResidential,Business&IndustryHeatpumpsmoveheatfromsourcetosinkviathecompression/expansionofanintermediaterefrigerant.Withtheappropriate9selectionofrefrigerants,heatpumptechnologyappliestospaceheating,waterheatingandlaundrydriersinresidentialandcommercialbuildings,inadditiontomanyindustrialprocesses.AirWaterGroundWasteHeatHeatSourceEvaporationExpansionCompressionCondensationHeatSinkAirWaterSteamHeatedMaterialFigure5:HowHeatPumpsWork10Airsourceheatpumpsarethemostsuitabletechnologyforretro?ttinggasfurnacesinexistinghomes,andcandeliver2.8unitsofheatperunitofenergyconsumedbasedonaheatingseasonalperformancefactor(HSPF)of9.5Btu/Wh,atypicale?ciencyratingforheat-pumpstoday11.Gasfurnacescreateheatbyburningnaturalgas.Theyhaveanannualfuelutilizatione?ciency(AFUE)of~90%12.Therefore,heatpumpsuse~3xlessenergythangasfurnaces(2.8/0.9).07MasterPlanPart3–SustainableEnergyforAllofEarthThePlantoEliminateFossilFuels1.4energyconsumptionupstreamlosses1.21.00.20.0GasFurnaceHeatPumpFigure6:E?ciencyimprovementofspaceheatingwithheatpumpvsgasfurnaceResidentialandCommercialSectorsTheEIAprovideshistoricalmonthlyUSnaturalgasusagefortheresidentialandcommercialsectorsineachsub-region.The3x8heat-pumpe?ciencyfactorreducestheenergydemandifallgasappliancesareelectri?ed.Thehourlyloadfactorofbaselineelectricitydemandwasappliedtoestimatethehourlyelectricitydemandvariationfromheatpumps,e?ectivelyascribingheatingdemandtothosehourswhenhomesareactivelybeingheatedorcooled.Insummer,theresidential/commercialdemandpeaksmid-afternoonwhencoolingloadsarehighest,inwinterdemandfollowsthewell-known“duck-curve”whichpeaksinmorning&evening.Globalelectri?cationofresidentialandcommercialapplianceswithheatpumpseliminates18PWh/yearoffossilfuelandcreates6PWh/yearofadditionalelectricaldemand.140SummerWinter13012011010090807005101520TimeofDay[hr]Figure7:Residential&commercialheating&coolingloadfactorvstimeofday08MasterPlanPart3–SustainableEnergyforAllofEarthThePlantoEliminateFossilFuelsIndustrialSectorIndustrialprocessesupto~200C,suchasfood,paper,textileandwoodindustriescanalsobene?tfromthee?ciencygainso?eredbyheatpumps13,althoughheatpumpe?ciencydecreaseswithhighertemperaturedi?erentials.Heatpumpintegrationisnuancedandexacte?cienciesdependheavilyonthetemperatureoftheheatsourcethesystemisdrawingfrom(temperatureriseiskeyindeterminingfactorforheatpumpe?ciency),assuchsimpli?edassumptionsforachievableCOPbytemperaturerangeareused:Temperature/Application0-60CHeatPumpCOP4.03.01.560-100CHeatPump100-200CHeatPumpTable2:AssumedHeatPumpE?ciencyImprovementsbyTemperatureBasedonthetemperaturemake-upofindustrialheataccordingtotheIEAandtheassumedheatpumpe?ciencybytemperatureinTable2,theweightedindustrialheatpumpe?ciencyfactormodeledis2.214,15,16.TheEIAprovideshistoricalmonthlyfossilfuelusagefortheindustrialsectorforeachsub-region8.Allindustrialfossilfueluse,excludingembeddedfossilfuelsinproducts(rubber,lubricants,others)isassumedtobeusedforprocessheat.AccordingtotheIEA,45%ofprocessheatisbelow200C,andwhenelectri?edwithheatpumpsrequires2.2xlessinputenergy16.Theaddedindustrialheat-pumpelectricaldemandwasmodeledasanin?exible,?athourlydemand.Globalelectri?cationofindustrialprocessheat<200Cwithheatpumpseliminates12PWh/yearoffossilfuelsandcreates5PWh/yearofadditionalelectricaldemand.04ElectrifyHighTemperatureHeatDeliveryandHydrogenProductionElectrifyHighHeatIndustrialProcessesIndustrialprocessesthatrequirehightemperatures(>200C),accountfortheremaining55%offossilfueluseandrequirespecialconsideration.Thisincludessteel,chemical,fertilizerandcementproduction,amongothers.Thesehigh-temperatureindustrialprocessescanbeserviceddirectlybyelectricresistanceheating,electricarcfurnacesorbu?eredthroughthermalstoragetotakeadvantageoflow-costrenewableenergywhenitisavailableinexcess.On-sitethermalstoragemaybevaluabletocoste?ectivelyaccelerateindustrialelectri?cation(e.g.,directlyusingthethermalstoragemediaandradiativeheatingelements)17,18.09MasterPlanPart3–SustainableEnergyforAllofEarthThePlantoEliminateFossilFuelsIdentifytheoptimalthermalstoragemediabytemperature/applicationCharging=ThermalBatteryEnergy=massthermal_battery*heatcapacity*?TDischarging=coolingthermalstoragemediabyheatingsomethingelseheatingthermalstoragemediawithelectricity,steam,hotair,etcFigure8:ThermalStorageOverviewDeliveringHeattoHighTemperatureProcessesHotFluidsforDeliveryProcessFluidstobeHeatedWaterMoltenSaltAirWaterEvaporatingMoltenSaltHeatingAirHeatingSteamMoltenSalt(upto550C)HotAir(upto2000+C)Figure9A:ThermalStorage-HeatDeliverytoProcessviaHeatTransferFluidsRadiantHeatDirectlytoProductFigure9B:ThermalStorage-HeatDeliverytoProcessviaDirectRadiantHeatingElectricresistanceheating,andelectricarcfurnaces,havesimilare?ciencytoblastfurnaceheating,thereforewillrequireasimilaramountofrenewableprimaryenergyinput.Thesehigh-temperatureprocessesaremodeledasanin?exible,?atdemand.Thermalstorageismodeledasanenergybu?erforhigh-temperatureprocessheatintheindustrialsector,witharoundtripthermale?ciencyof95%.Inregionswithhighsolarinstalledcapacity,thermalstoragewilltendtochargemiddayanddischargeduringthenightstomeetcontinuous24/7industrialthermalneeds.Figure9showspossibleheatcarriersandillustratesthatseveralmaterialsarecandidatesforprovidingprocessheat>1500C.Globalelectri?cationofindustrialprocessheat>200Celiminates9PWh/yearoffossilfuelfuelsandcreates9PWh/yearofadditionalelectricaldemand,asequalheatdeliverye?ciencyisassumed.10MasterPlanPart3–SustainableEnergyforAllofEarthThePlantoEliminateFossilFuels30002500200015001000500Graphite/CarbonAI203Si02MulliteSteelSandAluminumConcreteMoltenSaltThermalOilWater050010001500200025003000350040004500Speci?cHeat(J/kgK)Figure10:ThermalStorage-HeatStorageMediaNote:Bubblediametersrepresentspeci?cheatoverusablerange.SustainablyProduceHydrogenforSteelandFertilizerTodayhydrogenisproducedfromcoal,oilandnaturalgas,andisusedinthere?ningoffossilfuels(notablydiesel)andinvariousindustrialapplications(includingsteelandfertilizerproduction).Greenhydrogencanbeproducedviatheelectrolysisofwater(highenergyintensity,nocarboncontainingproductsconsumed/produced)orviamethanepyrolysis(lowerenergyintensity,producesasolidcarbon-blackbyproductthatcouldbeconvertedintousefulcarbon-basedproducts)g.Toconservativelyestimateelectricitydemandforgreenhydrogen,theassumptionis:??Nohydrogenwillbeneededforfossilfuelre?ninggoingforwardSteelproductionwillbeconvertedtotheDirectReducedIronprocess,requiringhydrogenasaninput.Hydrogendemandtoreduceironore(assumedtobeFeO)isbasedonthefollowingreductionreaction:34ReductionbyH2??FeO+H=3FeO+HO3422FeO+H=Fe+HO22?AllglobalhydrogenproductionwillcomefromelectrolysisgSustainablesteelproductionmayalsobeperformedthroughmoltenoxideelectrolysis,whichrequiresheatandelectricity,butdoesnotrequirehydrogenasareducingagent,andmaybelessenergyintensive,butthisbene?tisbeyondthescopeoftheanalysis19.11MasterPlanPart3–SustainableEnergyforAllofEarthThePlantoEliminateFossilFuelsThesesimpli?edassumptionsforindustrialdemand,resultinaglobaldemandof150Mt/yrofgreenhydrogen,andsourcingthisfromelectrolysisrequiresanestimated~7.2PWh/yearofsustainablygeneratedelectricityh,20,21.Theelectricaldemandforhydrogenproductionismodeledasa?exibleloadwithannualproductionconstraints,withhydrogenstoragepotentialmodeledintheformofundergroundgasstoragefacilities(likenaturalgasisstoredtoday)withmaximumresourceconstraints.Undergroundgasstoragefacilitiesusedtodayfornaturalgasstoragecanberetro?ttedforhydrogenstorage;themodeledU.S.hydrogenstoragerequires~30%ofexistingU.S.undergroundgasstoragefacilities22,23.Notethatsomestoragefacilities,suchassaltcaverns,arenotevenlygeographicallydispersedwhichmaypresentchallenges,andtheremaybebetteralternativestoragesolutions.Globalsustainablegreenhydrogeneliminates6PWh/yearoffossilfuelenergyuse,and2PWh/yearofnon-energyusei,24.Thefossilfuelsarereplacedby7PWh/yearofadditionalelectricaldemand.05SustainablyFuelPlanes&BoatsBothcontinentalandintercontinentaloceanshippingcanbeelectri?edbyoptimizingdesignspeedandroutestoenablesmallerbatterieswithmorefrequentchargestopsonlongroutes.AccordingtotheIEA,oceanshippingconsumes3.2PWh/yearglobally.Byapplyinganestimated1.5xelectri?catione?ciencyadvantage,afully-electri?edglobalshipping?eetwillconsume2.1PWh/yearofelectricity25.Shortdistance?ightscanalsobeelectri?edthroughoptimizedaircraftdesignand?ighttrajectoryattoday’sbatteryenergydensities26.Longerdistance?ights,estimatedas80%ofairtravelenergyconsumption(85Bgallons/yearofjetfuelglobally),canbepoweredbysyntheticfuelsgeneratedfromexcessrenewableelectricityleveragingtheFischer-Tropschprocess,whichusesamixtureofcarbonmonoxide(CO)andhydrogen(H2)tosynthesizeawidevarietyofliquidhydrocarbons,andhasbeendemonstratedasaviablepathwayforsyntheticjetfuelsynthesis27.Thisrequiresanadditional5PWh/yearofelectricity,with:-H2generatedfromelectrolysis21-CO2capturedviadirectaircapture28,29-COproducedviaelectrolysisofCO2Carbonandhydrogenforsyntheticfuelsmayalsobesourcedfrombiomass.Moree?cientandcost-e?ectivemethodsforsyntheticfuelgenerationmaybecomeavailableintime,andhigherenergydensitybatterieswillenablelonger-distanceaircrafttobeelectri?edthusdecreasingtheneedforsyntheticfuels.Theelectricaldemandforsyntheticfuelproductionwasmodeledasa?exibledemandwithanannualenergyconstraint.Storageofsyntheticfuelispossiblewithconventionalfuelstoragetechnologies,a1:1volumeratioisassumed.Theelectricaldemandforoceanshippingwasmodeledasaconstanthourlydemand.Globalsustainablesyntheticfuelandelectricityforboatsandplaneseliminates7PWh/yearoffossilfuels,andcreates7PWh/yearofadditionalglobalelectricaldemand.06ManufacturetheSustainableEnergyEconomyAdditionalelectricityisrequiredtobuildthegenerationandstorageportfolio-solarpanels,windturbinesandbatteries-requiredforthesustainableenergyeconomy.Thiselectricitydemandwasmodeledasanincremental,in?exible,?athourlydemandintheindustrialsector.MoredetailscanbefoundintheAppendix:BuildtheSustainableEnergyEconomy-EnergyIntensity.hiAdjustedcurrentdemandforhydrogen,removingdemandrelatedtooilre?ning,asthatwillnotberequired.Assumedallofthehydrogenproducedfromcoalandnaturalgastodayisreplaced.Then,theenergyrequiredtoproducethehydrogenfromcoalandnaturalgas,comparedtoelectrolysis,iscalculated.AccordingtotheIEA,85%ofnaturalgasnon-energyconsumptionisconsumedbyfertilizerandmethanolproduction12MasterPlanPart3–SustainableEnergyforAllofEarthModelingtheFullySustainableEnergyEconomyThese6stepscreateaU.S.electricaldemandtobeful?lledwithsustainablegenerationandstorage.Todoso,thegenerationandstorageportfolioisestablishedusinganhourlycost-optimalintegratedcapacityexpansionanddispatchmodelissplitbetweenfoursub-regionsoftheUSwithtransmissionconstraintsmodeledbetweenregionsandrunoverfourweather-years(2019-2022)tocapturearangeofweatherconditions.Interregionaltransmissionlimitsareestimatedbasedonthecurrentj.ThemodelklinecapacityratingsonmajortransmissionpathspublishedbyNorthAmericanElectricityReliabilityCouncil(NERC)RegionalEntities(SERC30,WECC31,ERCOT32).Figure11showsthefullyelectri?edeconomyenergydemandforthefullUS.ModeledRegionsandGridInterconnections24GW37GW28GWPaci?cEasternMidwestTexasMap1:USModeledRegionsandInterconnectionsjConvexoptimizationmodelsthatcandetermineoptimalcapacityexpansionandresourcedispatcharewidelyusedwithintheindustry.Forinstance,byutilitiesorsystemoperatorstoplantheirsystems(e.g.,generationandgridinvestmentsrequiredtomeettheirexpectedload),ortoassesstheimpactofspeci?cenergypoliciesontheenergysystem.Thismodelbuildstheleast-costgenerationandstorageportfoliotomeetdemandeveryhourofthefour-yearperiodanalyzedanddispatchesthatportfolioeveryhourtomeetdemand.Thecapacityexpansionanddispatchdecisionsareoptimizedinonestep,whichensurestheportfolioisoptimalovertheperiodanalyzed,storagevalueisfullyre?ectedandtheimpactofweathervariabilitymodeled.Otheranalysestypicallymodelcapacityexpansionandportfoliodispatchastwoseparatesteps.Thecapacityexpansiondecisionsaremade?rst(e.g.howmuchgenerationandstorageisestimatedtobetheleast-costportfoliooverthetimehorizon),followedbyseparatedispatchmodelingoftheportfoliomix(e.g.howmuchgenerationandstorageshouldbedispatchedineachhourtomeetdemandwithsu?cientoperatingreserves).Thetwo-stageapproachproducespseudo-optimalresults,butallowsmorecomputationallyintensivemodelsateachstage.Themodelisconstrainedtomeeta15%operatingreservemargineveryhourtoensurethisgenerationandstorageportfolioisrobusttoarangeofweatherandsystemconditionsbeyondthoseexplicitelymodeled.k13MasterPlanPart3–SustainableEnergyforAllofEarthModelingtheFullySustainableEnergyEconomyJan‘19Jul‘19Jan‘20Jul‘20Jan‘21Jul‘21Jan‘22Jul‘22Figure11:USFullyElectri?edHourlyDemandNewIndustryIndustrialHeatPumps(<200CSyntheticFuelsGreenHydrogenIndustrialHeat(>200C)Residential&CommercialHeatPumpsElectri?edTransportationExistingElectricalDemand(AllSectors)Windandsolarresourcesforeachregionaremodeledwiththeirrespectivehourlycapacityfactor(i.e.,howmuchelectricityisproducedhourlyperMWofinstalledcapacity),itsinterconnectioncostandthemaximumcapacityavailableforthemodeltobuild.Thewindandsolarhourlycapacityfactorsspeci?ctoeachregionwereestimatedusinghistoricalwind/solargenerationtakenfromEIAineachregion,thuscapturingdi?erencesinresourcepotentialduetoregionalweatherpatternsl,m.CapacityfactorswerescaledtorepresentforwardlookingtrendsbasedontherecentPrincetonNet-ZeroAmericastudy33.Figure11showsthehourlycapacityfactorforwind&solarversustimeforthefullUS.Table3showstheaveragecapacityfactoranddemandforeachregionoftheUS.lEIAdoesnotreporto?shorewindproductionfortheperiodanalyzedgiventhelimitedexistingo?shorewindinstalledcapacity.Theo?shorewindgenerationpro?lewasestimatedbyscalingthehistoricalonshorewindgenerationpro?letotheo?shorewindcapacityfactorestimatedbythePrincetonNet-ZeroAmericastudy.mEachregionismodeledwithtwoonshorewindandtwosolarresourceswithdi?erentcapacityfactor,interconnectioncostandmaximumpotential.Thisaccountsforthefactthatthemosteconomicsitesaretypicallybuilt?rstandsubsequentprojectstypicallyhavelowercapacityfactorsand/orhigherinterconnectioncostastheymaybefartherlocatedfromdemandcentersrequiringmoretransmissionorinlocationswithhighercostland.14MasterPlanPart3–SustainableEnergyforAllofEarthModelingtheFullySustainableEnergyEconomyJan‘19J