大學(xué)英語聽力教程第三冊聽力原文(第二版)

大學(xué)英語聽力教程第三冊（第二版）聽力原文UNIT1IstheEarthBeingSqueezedDryPart1GettingreadyBTheAmazonforestsaredisappearingbecauseofincreasedburningandtreeremoval.InSeptember,satellitepicturesshowedmorethan20000firesburningintheAmazon.Expertssaymostofthesefiresweresetbyfarmers.Thefarmerswereattemptingtoclearlandtogrowcrops.TheWorldWildlifeFundsaysanotherseriousproblemisthattoomanytreesintheAmazonrainforestarebeingcutdown.TheWorldWildlifeFundsaysthefiresshowtheneedforurgentinternationalactiontoprotecttheworld'srainforests.Thegroupwarnsthatwithoutsuchactionsomeforestscouldbelostforever.2.EnvironmentalissuesswelltothefullinBerlinthisweek,fortheUNspongsoredconferenceonglobalwarmingandclimatechangeisthefirstsuchmeetingsincetheRiosummitthreeyearsago.WithscientistsandgovernmentsnowgenerallyreadytoacceptthattheearthclimateisbeingaffectedbyemissionsofCO2andothergreenhousegases,overahundredcountriesaresendingdelegations.ButhowmuchprogresshasbeenmadeimplementingthegreenhousegasreductiontargetagreedonatRio?SimonDaryreports...Part2TheearthatriskI:BrianCowlesistheproducerofanewseriesofdocumentariescalled"TheEarthatRisk"whichcanbeseenonChannel4laterthismonth.Eachprogramdealswithadifferentcontinent,doesn'tit,Brian?B:That'sright.WewenttoAmerica,bothNorthandSouthandthenwewentovertoAfricaandSouth-EastAsia.I:Andwhatdidyoufindineachofthesecontinents?B:StartingwithAfrica,ourfilmshowstheimpactofthepopulationontheenvironment.Generallyspeaking,thishascausedtheSaharaDeserttoexpand.It'sabitofaviciouscirclewefind.Peoplecutdowntreesforfirewoodandtheirdomesticanimalseatalltheavailableplants—andsoconsequentlytheyhavetomovesouthastheSaharaDesertexpandsfurthersouth.Imean,soonthewholeofMaliwillbecomeadesert.AndinEastAfrica:herethegrasslandsaresupportingtoomanyanimalsandtheresultis,ofcourse,there'snograss—nothingfortheanimalstoeat.I:Isee.AndthenextfilmdealswithNorthAmerica?B:That'sright.IntheUSA,asyouknow,intensiveagriculturerequiresaplentifulsupplyofrainforthesecropstogrow,Imeanifthereisn'tenoughrainthecropsdon'tgrow.Andgrowingcropsstabilizesoil,withoutthemthetopsoiljustblowsaway.Thisisalsotrueforanyregionthatisintenselyfarmed—mostofEurope,forexample.I:AndwhatdidyoufindinSouthAmerica?B:InSouthAmerica(asinCentralAfricaandSouthernAsia)tropicalforestsarebeingcutdownatanalarmingrate.ThisisdonesothatpeoplecansupportthemselvesbygrowingfoodortocreaterancheswherecattlecanberaisedtobeexportedtoEuropeorAmericaastinnedmeat.Theproblemisthatthesoilissopoorthatonlyacoupleofharvestsarepossiblebeforethisverythinsoilbecomesexhausted.Anditcan'tbefedwithfertilizerslikeagriculturallandinEurope.Forexample,inBrazilin1982anareaofjunglethesizeofBritainandFrancecombinedwasdestroyedtomakewayforanironoremine.HugenumbersoftreesarebeingcutdownforexportsashardwoodtoJapan,Europe,USAtomakethingslikeluxuryfurniture.Theseforestscan'tbereplaced—theforestsoilisthinandunproductiveandinjustafewyears,ajunglehasbecomeawasteland.Tropicalforestscontainrareplants(whichwecanuseformedicines,forexample)andanimals—oneanimalorplantspeciesbecomesextincteveryhalfhour.Theseforesttreesalsohaveworldwideeffects.Youknow,theyconvertcarbondioxideintooxygen.Theconsequenceofdestroyingforestsisnotonlythattheclimateofthatregionchanges(becausethereislessrainfall)butthischangeaffectsthewholeworld.Imean,overhalftheworld'srainforesthasbeencutdownthiscentury.Part3sectionAI-InterviewerB-BrianCowlesI:So,Brian,wouldyouagreethatwhatwegenerallythinkofasnaturaldisastersareinfactman-made?B:Yes,byandlarge.Imean,obviouslynothurricanesorearthquakes,buttakeflooding,forexample.Practicallyeveryyear,thewholeofBangladeshisfloodedandthisisgettingworse.Youknow,thecauseisthatforestshavebeencutdownupinNepalandIndia,Imeanhigherup-riverintheHimalayas.Treeswouldholdrainfallintheirroots,butifthey'vebeencutdownalltherainthatfallsinthemonsoonseasonflowssraightintotheriverGangesandfloodsthewholecountry.ThereasonforfloodinginSudanisthesame—theforestshigheruptheBlueNileinEthiopiahavebeendestroyedtoo.I:Well,thisallsoundsterriblydepressing.Um...Whatistobedone?Imean,cananythingbedone,infact?B:Yes,ofcourseitcan.First,thenationalgovernmentshavetobeforward-lookingandconsidertheresultsoftheirpoliciesintenortwentyyears,notjustthinkasfaraheadasthenextelection.Somehow,allthecountriesintheworldhavetoworktogetheronaninternationalbasis.Secondly,thepopulationhastobecontrolledinsomeway:therearetoomanypeopletryingtoliveofftoolittleland.Thirdly,wedon'tneedtropicalhardwoodtomakeourfurniture—it'saluxurypeopleintheWestmustdowithout.Softwoodsarejustasgood,lessexpensiveandcanbeproducedonenvironment-friendly"treefarms",wheretreesarereplacedatthesameratethattheyarecutdown.I:And,presumably,educationisimportantaswell.Peoplemustbeeducatedtorealizetheconsequencesoftheiractions?B:Yes,ofcourse.I:Well,thankyou,Brian.sectionBI-InterviewerB-BrianCowlesI:So,Brian,wouldyouagreethatwhatwegenerallythinkofas...er...aser...naturaldisastersareinfactman-made?B:Yes,byandlarge...er...Imean,obviouslynothurricanesorearthquakes,buttakeflooding,forexample.Imean,practicallyeveryyear,thewholeofBangladeshisfloodedandthisisgettingworse.Youknow,thecauseisthatforestshavebeencutdownupinNepalandIndia...Imean...higherup-riverintheHimalayas.Trees...er...wouldholdrainfallintheirroots,butifthey'vebeencutdownalltherainthatfallsinthemonsoonseasonflowsstraightintotheriverGangesandfloodsthewholecountry.ThereasonforfloodinginSudanisthesame—theforestshigheruptheBlueNileinEthiopiahavebeendestroyedtoo.Part4Theworldiswarmingup.Weknowthisbecauseaveragetemperaturesarethehighestsincescientistsstartedmeasuringthem600yearsago.Theincreaseisabout0.2℃everyyear.Thismayseemveryslight,butweknowthatslightchangesintemperaturecanhaveabigeffectonotherthings.Mostscientistsnowbelievethisglobalwarmingisduetohumanactivity.JeffJenkinsisheadofBritain'sClimatePredictionCenter.Heexplainshowglobalwarmingcanhappen."Sunlightstrikestheearthandwarmsitup.Atthesametimeheatleavestheearth,butpartofthatistrappedbycarbondioxideandothergasesintheearth'satmosphere.Thathasbeenhappeningeversincetheearthwasformed.Butthefearisthatincreasingamountsofcarbondioxideproducedbyindustrialprocessesandtransportandsoonwillleadtoagreaterwarmingoftheearth'ssurface.Sothat'sthegolbalwarmingthatpeopleareconcernedabout."Peoplearemostconcernedabouttheuseoffossilfuels.Fossilfuelsareoil,coal,woodandsoon.Whentheseburn,theyproducethegascarbondioxide.Manyscientistsagreethatanincreaseintheamountofcarbondioxideandsomeofthegasesintheatmospherewillincreasetheamountofwarming.Computersarebeingusedtopredictwhatthismaymean.Theyshowedthattherecouldbegreatchangesinrainfallandtheriseinthesealevelasicecapsinthenorthandsouthpolesmelt.ThiscouldhaveaseriouseffectonagricultureaccordingtoProf.MartinPerryofUniversityCollegeinLondon.Hesaysitcouldbecomemoredifficulttogrowfoodinthetropicsatlowerlatitudesnearertotheequator."Themostclearpatternemergingisthepossibilityofreducedpotentialproductioninlowerlatituderegions,andmostgenerallyspeaking,increasedpotentialinhigherlatituderegions.Lowerlatituderegionsarealreadywarm,toputitextremelysimply,andplantstherearequiteneartheirlimitsofheatanddroughtstress.Anincreaseintemperatureorreductioninmoisturewouldplacelimitsoncropgrowth."Woman:Globalwarmingcouldreducefoodproductioninlowerlatituderegions.Lowerlatituderegionsarealreadywarm.Globalwarmingcouldputmorestressonplansandplacelimitsoncropgrowth.Foodproductionisonlyoneareathatcouldbeaffected.Therecouldalsobehealthandsocialproblems.Prof.AntonyMacMichaeloftheLondonSchoolofHygieneandTropicalMedicinebelievesthatsomeruralareasarealreadysuffering.Andtheinsectsandbacteriacouldspreaddiseasemoreeasily."Alreadyanumberofruralpopulationsaroundtheworldaresufferingfromthedeclineofagriculturalsystems.Climatechangewouldaddtothis.Andwewouldexpectthatitwouldacceleratethefloodofenvironmentalrefugeesaroundtheworld.Butitincludesnotjustthefoodproductionsystems,butthepatternsofdistributionofinsectsandinfectiveagentsaroundtheworld.Itincludeslikelyeffectsonpatternsofhear-relatedfoodpoisoning,watercontaminationanddiarrheadiseases,lotsofthingslikethisthatwouldrespondsensitivelytochangesinclimate."Woman:Globalwarmingcouldaffectthedistributionofinsects.Globalwarmingcouldchangepatternsofheat-relatedfoodpoisoning.Manycountriesnowagreethatsomethingmustbedonetoreducethedangerofglobalwarming.Butaworldwideagreementonloweringtheproductionofcarbondioxidehasbeendifficulttoreach.Thisisbecausemanyeconomiesdependonfossilfuelslikeoil.Scientistsbelieveit'snowthepoliticiansineveryregionoftheworldwhoneedtotakeaction.Part5EnvironmenthastakenratherabackseatpoliticallysincetheEarthsummitinRiodeJaneironearly5yearsago.Buttheproblemsthatmeetinghighlightedhadnotgoneaway.Oneenvironmentalthinktank—theInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute—hasbeenlookingatthefutureofwateranditsreportreflectsgrowingconcernatthehugeleapinusageoverthepastfewyears.Insomepartsoftheworld,waterconsumptionhasincreasedfivefold.Andtheinstitute,knownbyitsinitialsIFPRI,saysshortagescouldsoonbecomethetriggerforconflictandamajorbarriertofeedingtheworld'sgrowingpopulation.Here'sRichardBlackofourScienceUnit."It'softenbeensaidthatwaterratherthanoilwillbethecauseofwarfareinthenextcentury.AccordingtotheIFPRIreport,thetimewhenthathappensmightnotbefaraway.Thenumberofpeopleaffectedbywatershortagewillincreasetenfoldoverthenext30years,itsays,whichcouldwellleadtolargescaleconflicts.Themainreasonwhywaterisbecomingascarceresourceisagriculture,whichnowaccountsfor70%ofwaterconsumptionworldwide,90%insomedevelopingcountries.Countlessfarmershaveswitchedfromgrowingindigenouscropsforthehomemarkettohighyieldexportvarieties,whichinevitablyneedfarmorewater.ButtheIFPRIreportsaysthatinsomeregionswatershortageisnowthesinglebiggestimpedimenttofeedingthepopulation.Waterscarcityalsoleadstowaterpollution.IntheIndianStateofWestBengal,forexample,overextractionofwaterfromboreholeshasledtoarsenicpoisoningwhichisestimatedtohaveaffectedtwomillionpeoplesofar.ButtheIFPRIreportcallsforbetterwatermanagementworldwideincludingfinancialincentivestoencourageconservation."Unit2Unit2Part1A:Hello,I'mcallingonbehalfoftheWorldWildlifeFund.B:Thewhat?A:TheWorldWildlifeFund.Ifyou'vegotafewminutesI'dliketotellyouwhatthatmeans.B:Oh,allright.A:Weworktoconservenaturalareasthatcontainendangeredwildlife.Theseas,forexample,havebecomepollutedbytheindustrializedworld;whalesarebeinghuntedtoextinction;turtlesarerolledofftheireggswhentheycomeashoretobreedorareslaughteredfortheirmeatandoil…B:Oh.A:Crocodilesarekilledtomakehandbagsandshoes;walrusesarehuntedfortheirivory.B:Isee.A:Sealsarebludgeonedtodeathtoprovidefurcoatsandthethreatofextinctionhangsoverseveralspeciesofwhale,dolphinandporpoise.B:Really.A:Wearenowcampaigningtoprovideseasanctuariesforsomeoftheseendangeredspecies.B:Veryinteresting.A:Aidedbyourcampaign,protectednestingsitesforturtleshavealreadybeensetup.Asyoucansee,thisisveryvaluableworkandIwonderthereforeifyou'dliketomakeadonation?Part2JohnJamesAudubonwasanAmericanartistintheearly1800s,whoillustratedbirdsintheirnaturalhabitats.TheSocietynamedafterhimwasfoundedinthelate1800sbyconservationistsconcernedwiththedeclineofbirds,whichwerebeingkilledsotheirfeatherscouldbeusedinthemanufactureofwomen'shats.SponsoredbytheNationalAudubonSociety,morethan40000volunteerswillbeoutsidecountingbirdsfromtodayuntilJanuary3rd.Volunteersfromall50statesoftheUnitedStates,everyCanadianprovince,partsofCentralandSouthAmerica,Bermuda,theWestIndiesandPacificislandshavebeguntocountandrecordeveryindividualbirdandbirdspeciesobservedduringthetwoandonehalfweekperiodofthecount.JeffreyLeBaronistheNationalAudubonSociety'sChristmasBirdCounteditor.Hesaysthecountisthelongest-runningbirdcensusinornithology.Thisyear,accordingtoMr.LeBaron,morethan1600separatebirdcountshavebeenscheduled.Somewouldhaveasfewas10peopletakingpart,otherswithhundreds.ThelogisticsoftheChristmasbirdcount,headds,aresimple."Eachindividualcountisinacircle.It'sa15milediametercircle,um,aroundtheexactcenterpoint.Andit'salwaystheexactlysameareathat'sdoneeveryyear,usually,evenonthesameweekendduringthecountperiod.Andwhattheidealwouldbe,whichisvirtuallyimpossible,isthiscensus:everysingleindividualbirdwithinthatcircleonthecountday."Mr.LeBaronsaysexperiencedbirdcounterscangetagoodideaofthetotalbirdpopulationswithinthecountcirclebasedonthenumberofbirdstheyactuallysee.Theeditorpointsout,however,thatthecountsarenotonlyforexperiencedbirdwatchers."Anybodythatisinterestedorconcernedcanbecomeinvolved.Beginnerswillgooutinapartywithexperiencedindividualswhoknowboththeareaandthebirdsinthearea,inthefieldwheremoreeyesandearsarebetter.Andthenanybodycanpointoutabird,andsomeoneinthefieldwillalwaysbeabletoidentifythebird."Part3A—AlanTuR—RickTroudD—DeborahDuffieldP—PeterJonesJ—JeanMichelCousteau[AlanTuisanannouncerforColoradoPublicRadio;PeterJonesisareporterforColoradoPublicRadio.Theotherspeakersareidentifiedinthereport.]A:AplannedaquaticparkinDenverisraisingtheireofanimalrightsactivistswhoobjecttoaproposaltoincludeacaptivedolphindisplay.AlthoughofficialsforColorado'sOceanJourneyssaytheyhaveyettomakeafinaldecisionontheissue,localandnationalactivistshavealreadyinstigateda"NoDolphinsinDenver'campaign.AsColoradoPublicRadio'sPeterJonesreports,thebattlelineshavebeenclearlydrawn.P:RickTroud,aformernavydolphintrainerbasedinFlorida,istakinganactiveroleinthe"NoDolphins"campaign.R:Averageageinthewildrangesanywhereinsomeofthestudiesbetween30and40yearsofage.Incaptivity,youcanexpectadolphintolivemaybe5.13years,andevery7yearsincaptivity,thedolphinpopulationisdead.P:AccordingtoTroud,therearemanyreasonswhydolphinscan'tlivefulllivesincaptivity.R:Ifyoutakealookatwheretherealdolphinisintherealocean,youfindthedolphinwhoswims40milesaday,isveryfamily-oriented.Theseanimalsareseparatedfromtheirmothers;that'sastress.Youputtheminaconcretetankwheretheirsonarbouncesoffofwalls,theycan'tswiminthesameamountoftimeanddirectionthattheycaninthewild.P:Environmentalistandoceanexplorer,JeanMichelCousteau:J:Therearesomeanimalswhichrejectcaptivityrightaway,andthey'reverysuicidal.I'vehadoneofthoseinmyownarmsformanydays.ThenextmorningwhenIcametotakecareofhim,hewasdead.Andwhathe'ddonewastoswimasfastashecouldfromoneendofthepoolon...totheothersideanddestroyedhisheadbyhittingthewall.Theyhaveaverysophisticatedbrain.Idon'tthinkwehaveanyrightstoplaywiththelivesoftheseanimals.P:Cousteau'santi-captivitypositionischallengedbyDr.DeborahDuffield,abiologyprofessoratPortlandStateCollegeinOregon.Her1990studycomparedcaptivedolphinstothewildpopulationofSarasotaBay,Florida.Amongotherfindings,thestudyshowedlittleifanydifferenceintheaverageageofdeath.AndDuffieldsayslifeisgenerallygettingbetterforcaptivedolphins.D:ThecensusdatasaythateverytimeIdoacensus,I'vegotolderandolderanimalsinitaswellasthisnormalagedistributionthatwe'vebeenlookingat.Somyfeelingisthatthetrendincaptivityhasbeenthatthegroupofanimalsthatwe'refollowingaregettingolder,andiftheycontinuetodothatoverthenextfiveyears,theywillthenindeedbeolderthanthewildpopulation.P:Thereisalsoadebateovertheeducationalbenefitsofkeepingmarinemammalsincaptivity.AccordingtoDuffield,captivedolphinsplayanimportantroleinourbasicunderstandingoftheanimals.D:Ifirmlybelievethatwecannotlearnanythingaboutorganismsthatwesharethisworldwithifwedonotunderstandhowtheyliveinanenvironment,andwhattheydo,andthatwatchingthemgobyinthewildwillnotdoit.Icannottellwhatananimalneeds,unlessIknowhowitoperates,howitbreeds,whatitneedsmetabolically,andIcan'tlearnthatfromanimalsinthewild.P:ButTroudsaysthedolphindisplaysareanti-educationalbecausetheanimals'naturalbehaviorpatternsarealteredbycaptivity.R:Inthewild,youdon'thavedolphinswhobeateachothertodeath.TherearenodolphinsthatI'veeverseenstrandedonthebeach,whoaresufferingfromfracturedskulls,fracturedribsorfracturedjaws,asisthecaseincaptivity.P:TheOceanJourneyboardwilltakeallfactorsintoconsiderationbeforemakingafinaldecisiononwhethertoincludedolphinsinthepark.ForColoradoPublicRadio,I'mPeterJones.Part4Mr.LeBaronsaysthereareabout9300differentknownspeciesofbirds.Largernumbersofthemliveinthewarmerclimates.Forexample,morethan300differentspecieshavebeencountedinPanama,whilefarfewerspeciesarenativetocolderclimates.Asidefromtheirestheticvalue,Mr.LeBaronsaysbirdsareimportanttotheenvironmentbecausetheycansignalchangesinit."Birdsareoneofthebestindicatorsthatwehaveofthequalityoftheenvironmentwithinthegivenarea.Whetheritisarelativelylocalarea,orevenprimarilyontheworldwidebases,theyareoneofthefirstthingstobealtered.Theyarequitesensitivetoahabitatalterationortootherthreats.Andoftentimeswhenbirdsaredisappearingoutofthearea,itjustmeansthereisadegradationofthequalityofthehabitatwithinthatareawhichwilladverselyaffecteverythinginthereincludinghumans."NationalAudubonSocietyeditorJeffreyLeBaroncallstheworld'sbirdpopulationsasourceofwealththathumansmustprotect."Peoplegetsomuchpleasureoutoflookingatbirdsandlisteningtobirds.Andiftheystartdisappearingjusttheer,thequalityoflife,um,maybenotphysically,butthementalqualityoflifecanbedegradedquickly."JeffreyLeBaronsaysthatwhiletheNationalAudubonSociety'sannualChristmasbirdcountsshowadeclineinsomespecies,manytypesofbirdsareactuallyincreasingtheirpopulations.Part5Scientistshavecatalogedmorethanoneandone-halfmillionofthespeciesthatexistonEarthtoday.Bysomerecentestimates,atleast20timesthatmanyspeciesinhabittheplanet..Upto100speciesbecomeextincteveryday.Scientistsestimatethatthetotalnumberofspecieslosteachyearmayclimbto40000bytheyear2000,aratefarexceedinganyinthelast65millionyears..Aroundtheworldmorethan3500protectedareasexistintheformofparks,wildliferefugesandotherreserves.Theseareascoveratotalofabout2millionsquaremiles(5millionsquarekm,or3%ofourtotallandarea)..Today,morethan200animalspeciesintheUnitedStatesareclassifiedasendangered.Morethan1000animalspeciesareendangeredworldwide..Little-noticedaquaticanimalsareinbigtrouble.InNorthAmerica,athirdofourfishspecies,two-thirdsofourcrayfishspeciesandnearlythree-quartersofthemusselspeciesareintrouble.Unit3Unit3part1LookinghereatWednesday'sweatherforecastforEurope.It'scertainlyclearthatwinterisstartingtotakeitsgriponthecontinent.BerlinonWednesday,mostlycloudyandverycold,and-2degreesforyourhigh.Brussels,Belgium,alittlewarmeratonedegree,partlysunny.London,5degreesforyourhigh,mostlycloudythroughouttheday.InParis,yourhightemperatureis0degreesonWednesday,partlycloudyaswell.Rome,8degreesforyourhigh,withperiodsofcloudsandsunshine.AndVienna,Austria,-2degreesonWednesday,cloudyandofcoursecold.Athens,Greece,alittlewarmerat10degrees,periodsofcloudsandsunshineonWednesday.Belgrade,Yugoslavia,1degreeforyourhigh,mostlycloudy.Istanbul,5degrees,andpartlysunny.AndKiev,Ukraine,-7degrees,andyoucanexpectsnow.Moscow,-9degreesonWednesday,alsosnowy.AndinPrague,theCzechRepublic,-4degreeswithsnowflurries,sosoundsliketypicalofweatherforthatareaoftheworld.Let'slookatwhatwehavehereinWashingtonD.C.,nosnowyet,butitwillbecoming.As1998endsandpeoplelookforwardtothelastyearofthecentury,theWorldAlmanacspokewithexpertsaboutwhatcomesnext.Almanaceditorialdirectorsaystheexpertsbelievethenextcenturywillbringlotsofchanges."Warm,ofcourse,thatourclimateisgoingtocontinuegettingwarmer.That'sthesubject,bytheway,ofanothernewarticleonthe1999WorldAlmanac.Thegreenhouseeffect,exactlywhatcausesit,andwhatstepstobetakento,um,perhaps,toalleviateglobalwarmings.I'veseenrecentlythat1998isgoingtogodownasthewarmestyeareveronrecord.Andsothat'sgoingtobeamajorissueofthenextcentury,andpossibletremendousconsequencesoftheglobalwarmings,whetheritisrisingsealevelsaffectingthecoastalareas;changesinclimatezonesaffectingwhatcropscanbegrown,andinwhatregions.Thisispotentiallyaverysignificanttrendtobewatched."Majoroceanstormsinthenorthernpartoftheworldusuallydevelopinlatesummerorautumnoverwatersneartheequator.Theyareknownbyseveraldifferentnames.ScientistscallthesestormscycloneswhentheyhappenjustnorthorsouthoftheequatorintheIndianOcean.InthewesternPacificOceanortheChinaSea,thesestormsarecalledtyphoons.IntheeasternPacificandAtlanticOcean,theyarecalledhurricanes.Part2SatellitereadingsconfirmthatconditionsarerightforanotherElNino,acyclicweatherpatternthataffectstheglobalclimate."ElNino'snormallyshowupabouttwiceadecadeanditlastsabout12to18months,bringingwarmerweathertopartsoftheearth.Someregionsbecomewetterthanusual,othersdrier.TheElNino,whichbeganin1991haslingeredthroughthisyear.Althoughseveralyearsmighthavebeenexpectedtopassbeforethenextone,anAmerican-FrenchsatelliteobservingtheoceanshasfoundasignthatElNinomaycomebackquickerthanexpected."'Thesekindsofthingsstillhappen.'ThisisBrigJacker,anoceanographeroftheUSNavalResearchLaboratoryinMississippi."'Everyyearisunpredictable.OneyearmightbeElNinoyear,oneyearmightnot.GenerallyElNino'scomeinfouryearcycles.Butthere'snothingtosaythatyoucan'thavetwoElNinoyearsinarow.'"ElNino'sbeginwiththedeclineofwindspullingcoldwaterawayfromSouthAmerica'swestcoasttoaroundtheequator.ThisallowswarmwaterinthewesternPacificOceantoexpandeastwardtowardtheAmerica's.Atthesametime,thecloudsandrainoverthewarmwatermoveeastwardtoo.RadaraboardtheAmerican-FrenchsatellitedetectedthehintthatsuchwatermovementbeganinearlyAugustandreachedSouthAmericatwomonthslater.Itsawaripplecalleda'Calvinwave'movingslowlyeastward.SuchpulsessometimesgiverisetoElNinoconditionsintheeasternequatorialPacific."ElNino'scanchangetheweatheraroundtheworld,buthowmuchdependsonitsstrength.Astrongonein1982and1983hasbeenlinkedtodroughtsinAustraliaandIndonesia,rainsandfloodinginSouthAmerica,andunseasonablywarmweatherinmuchoftheUnitedStates.ButeventhemildElNinothatbeganin1991hascausedtrouble.IthasbeenassociatedwithdevastatingfloodsintheUSsoutheastlastyearandintheUSmidwestthisyear.ElNino'sarehardontheSouthAmericanfishingindustry.Thewarmwaterspreventnutrientsrichcoldwaterfromrisingtothesurface,causingfishstockstobecomedepletive.Mr.JackersaidanewElNinoapparentlywouldbemildbutheisnotbettingonityet."TheUSNavaloceanographersayspredictionsaredifficultbecausethestrengthofElNinodependsonhowwindsaffectthe'Calvinwave'thathasmovedacrossthePacific."Part3It’saboutanhour’sdrivefromtheoutskirtsofSanJose,California,neartheuppersideofthestate’shigh-technologyregionknownas“SiliconValley”.Asavisitordrivesupthenarrowwindingroadpastredflowers,andeucalyptustrees,oneofthefirsttwoseismographicstationsintheworld,it’salmostasurprisetoglimpse