《世界銀行2050年展望：戰(zhàn)略方向說(shuō)明》正式版

SupportingCountriestoMeetLong-TermGoalsofDecarbonization+0.77+2.35+1.76+11.20+0.28+4.41+6.27+1.37

CO21WorldBankOutlook2050:StrategicDirectionsNote?2020InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW,WashingtonDC20433Telephone:202-473-1000Internet:ThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.RightsandPermissionsThematerialinthisworkissubjecttocopyright.BecauseTheWorldBankencouragesdisseminationofitsknowledge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwholeorinpart,fornoncommercialpurposesaslongasfullattributiontothisworkisgivenAttribution—Pleasecitetheworkasfollows:Mukhi,Neha;Rana,Suneira;Mills-Knapp,Sara;Gessesse,Eskedar.2020.WorldBankOutlook2050:StrategicDirectionsNote.SupportingCountriestoMeetLong-termGoalsofDecarbonization.WorldBank,Washington,DC.Anyqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;e-mail:pubrights@CoverillustrationandDesign:BradAmburn.PhotosbyCurtCarnemark/WorldBankandGerardoPesantez/WorldBankTableofContents4.ClimateRisksandOpportunitiesinDecarbonizationforFinancialInstitutions??????????????????305.TheWorldBankOutlook2050Initiative:ApproachandMethodology??????????????????????????????????對(duì)???326.WorldBankPrioritiestoSupportCountriesonLong-TermDecarbonizationGoals7.1StrategicDirection1:EmbedLong-TermClimatePrioritiesinCountryMacroeconomicFrameworks?????????????????????357.2StrategicDirection2:EmbedLong-TermClimatePlanninginNationalBudgetsandExpenditureFrameworks?????377.3StrategicDirection3:EmbedLong-TermClimateObjectivesinFinancialSectorRegulationsandIncentives???????403WorldBankOutlook2050:StrategicDirectionsNote7.4StrategicDirection4:EmbedLong-TermClimateObjectivesintoSystemsPlanning447.4.1WorldBankengagementtodate??????????????????????????????????對(duì)????????????????????????447.4.2Newfrontiersforlendingandtechnicalassistance??????????????????????????????????對(duì)????????????????????????????????????對(duì)???????????????????????????????458.AdvancingCross-CuttingSolutions??????????????????????????????????對(duì)???488.1PriorityArea1:TransformingFoodSystems??????????????????????????????????對(duì)????????????????????????????????????對(duì)????????????????518.1.1WorldBankengagementtodate??????????????????????????????????528.1.2Newfrontiersforlendingandtechnicalassistance??????????????????????????????????538.2PriorityArea2:ProtectingLand-BasedEcosystemsandEnhancingCarbonSinks??????????????????????????????????對(duì)????????????????????548.2.1WorldBankengagementtodate??????????????????????????????????對(duì)??????????????????????558.2.2Newfrontiersforlendingandtechnicalassistance??????????????????????????????????568.3PriorityArea3:TransformingEnergySystems??????????????????????????????????對(duì)??????????????????????????????????對(duì)??????????????588.3.1WorldBankengagementtodate??????????????????????????????????對(duì)??????????????????????598.3.2Newfrontiersforlendingandtechnicalassistance??????????????????????????????????608.4PriorityArea4:TransformingMobility??????????????????????????????????628.4.1WorldBankengagementtodate??????????????????????????????????對(duì)??????????????????????638.4.2Newfrontiersforlendingandtechnicalassistance??????????????????????????????????648.5PriorityArea5:BuildingLow-Carbon,MoreResilientUrbanAreas????????????????????????????????????對(duì)?????????????668.5.1WorldBankengagementtodate??????????????????????????????????對(duì)??????????????????????678.5.2Newfrontiersforlendingandtechnicalassistance??????????????????????????????????678.6PriorityArea6:TransformingWaterSystems??????????????????????????????????對(duì)????????????????????????????????????對(duì)????????????????688.6.1WorldBankengagementtodate??????????????????????????????????對(duì)??????????????????????698.6.2Newfrontiersforlendingandtechnicalassistance??????????????????????????????????708.7PriorityArea7:TransformingtheBlueEconomy??????????????????????????????????對(duì)??????????728.7.1WorldBankengagementtodate??????????????????????????????????738.7.2Newfrontiersforlendingandtechnicalassistance??????????????????????????????????748.8PriorityArea8:DigitalTransformation??????????????????????????????????對(duì)?????????????????......758.8.1WorldBankengagementtodate??????????????????????????????????對(duì)??????????????????????778.8.2Newfrontiersforlendingandtechnicalassistance??????????????????????????????????779.ResourcesandCapacitytoDeliveronLong-TermClimatePriorities??????????????????????????????????對(duì)???799.1DevelopNewFrameworkToolsandApproaches對(duì)????????799.2TailoredApproachesforRegionalandCountryImplementation????????????????????????????????????對(duì)???????????????????809.3FinancingforOutlook2050Priorities??????????????????????????????????對(duì)?????????????????.......809.4AligningShort-andMedium-TermCrisisResponsewithLong-TermPriorities??????????????????????????????????819.5IncentivizeInternalEffortstoSupportLong-TermCross-SectoralClimateAction??????????????????????????????????對(duì)??????????????????????829.6BuildInternalSkillsandCapacitytoRespondtoCountryDemand????????????????????????????????????對(duì)?????????????829.7GlobalStrategicPartnerships????????????????????????????????????對(duì)???????82AppendixAOutlook2050:ApproachandMethodology??????????????????????????????????對(duì)????????????????????????????????????對(duì)??924WorldBankOutlook2050:StrategicDirectionsNoteForewordClimatechangeremainsanacutethreattoglobaldevelopmentandsharedprosperity.ItsimpactsareexpectedtointensifyevenastheworldgrappleswiththeCOVID-19crisisthatishittinghealth,livelihoodsandeconomies.Allcountries—butparticularlythepoorestandmostvulnerable—couldnowfacethecompoundimpactsofthetwinchallengesofclimateandCOVID,aswesawduringCycloneAmphan,whereauthoritiesinBangladeshandIndiahadtohandlecompetinggoalsofevacuationandlockdowntokeepcommunitiessafe.Aswesupportourclientsinrespondingtoandbuildingbackfromthecurrenteconomicchallenges,wehaveaonce-in-a-generationopportunitytohelpthemaligndevelopmentpathwayswiththedecarbonizationoftheireconomies.Doingsobymid-century,willbeoursurestwaytosecureasaferclimateforall.Andthebestpart:acrossmostsectorsandcountries,theselonger-termgoalscanalsobemetbytacklingshortertermneeds,includingcreatingnewjobsandmarketsandboostingeconomicgrowth.TheWorldBankOutlook2050:StrategicDirectionsNoteisespeciallytimelyasitlaysouteconomy-wideactionsandcross-cuttingsolutionsthatcanhelpeconomiesdecarbonizeanddevelopsustainably.Atthemacro-economiclevel,thisnoteidentifiesfourpillarsthatcandrivea‘wholeofeconomy’approachtointegratinglong-termclimateobjectives:namely,macroeconomicframeworks,nationalbudgets,financialsectorregulationsandincentives,andsystemsplanning.Italsoexamineseightcross-sectoralsolutionsthatwilldrivethisforward:foodsystems,landuse,energy,mobility,urbanareas,oceans,water,anddigitaltransformation.Acrosseachoftheseareas,thereportdetailsourapproachwithanoverviewofWorldBankengagementtodateandidentifiespotentialnewfrontiersforcountryengagements,technicalassistance,andlending.Implementingtheseactionsisinlinewithoureffortstointegrateclimateconsiderationsintonationalpolicyplanning,investmentdesign,budgeting,publicprocurementandimplementationandevaluation;andincreaseengagementwithMinistriesofFinanceandPlanninginthedesignandimplementationoftransformativelow-carbonandclimate-resilientpolicies.Cross-sectoralsolutions,likethoseidentifiedinthisNote,willbekeytosupportingcountriesdevelopintegratedmid-centurylowcarbonandclimateresilientstrategies.Lookingaheadfromthismomentin2020,itclearthatsupportingcountriesbuildingbackbettermeansnotonlyhelpingthemreducethemultipleimpactsofthiscrisis,butalsolayingthefoundationsfordealingwiththenextone.Theclimatechallengeaheadcannotbeunderestimated.Thatiswhyundertakinglong-termclimateactiontodaycanhelpstrengthendevelopmentprogressalreadymadeandsecureasafer,moreprosperousfutureforbillions.JuergenVoegeleVicePresidentforSustainableDevelopmentWorldBank5WorldBankOutlook2050:StrategicDirectionsNoteAcknowledgmentsTheWorldBankOutlook2050:StrategicDirectionsNotewaspreparedbyateamledbyNehaMukhi.ThecoreteamcomprisedSuneiraRana,SaraMills-Knapp,andEskedarBahruGessesse.ThisStrategicDirectionsNotebenefittedfromthehardworkofAnaBucher,RissaCamins,VivianeClement,DominikEnglert,S.TambiMatambo,AfuaOguah,AlexandrinaPlatonova-Oquab,andSuphacholSuphachalasai.TheteamisgratefulfortheguidancefromNeerajPrasad,PracticeManager,andthestrategicvisionanddirectionofBerniceK.VanBronkhorst,GlobalDirectorofClimateChangeGroupundertheleadershipofJuergenVoegele,VicePresidentofSustainableDevelopmentGroup,WorldBank.ThisworkwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithouttheinnovativethinkingandfuturevisionofJohnRoomeandStephenHammerwhowereinstrumentalintheinceptionanddesignofthework.TheextendedteamwascomposedofKaziFatehaAhmed,AnamBasnet,NikunjPrakashBeria,VaaruniEashwar,OluwafemiFaleye,RonaldHalim,AndreaV.PradaHernandez,SilkeHeuser,ShibaniPandey,AngelaSorianoQuevedo,NuwanSuriyagoda,andMichaelVaislic.TheteamisextremelythankfulforthevaluabletechnicalguidancefromthefocalpointsacrossvariousGlobalPracticesandRegionalVice-PresidentialUnitsoftheWorldBank.ThisincludedGregBrowder,RaffaelloCervigni,ChristopheCrepin,AshrafEl-Arini,PeterD.Ellis,NathanEngle,ErickFernandes,EduardoFerreira,DirkHeine,NielsB.Holm-Nielsen,ShafickHoossein,AshokKumar,KantaKumari,StephenLing,LuisaMasutti,HelenaNaber,AmbarNarayan,TrangVanNguyen,GrzegorzPeszko,ChristianPeter,MatherPfeiffenberger,KlasSander,LiaSieghart,ChandraShekharSinha,NatalyaStankevich,andJaneTreadwell.Theteamwouldliketoacknowledgethefollowingcolleagues,whokindlyagreedtoserveaspeerreviewers,fortheirinvaluablefeedback:AdemolaBraimoh,KaranCapoor,ChristianEigen-Zucchi,PeterD.Ellis,OnurErdem,ErickFernandes,AdrianFozzard,ChandrasekarGovindarajalu,NagarajaRaoHarshadeep,AstridHerdisJacobsen,SeanNelson,KulwinderSinghRao,MartijnGertJanRegelink,DiegoJuanRodriguez,CarloMariaRossotto,andFionaElizabethStewart.OthervaluableguidancewasprovidedbySimonBlack,DebabrataChattopadhyay,StephaneHallegatte,ChristopherHead,MuthukumaraMani,ShagunMehrotra,MarceloMena,GrzegorzPeszko,MarcSadler,andLiaSieghart.TheforesightworkshopsweredesignedandconductedbyGlobalKnowledgeInitiative(GKI).Theteamalsogreatlybenefitedfromdiscussionswithexternalexperts,namelythe2050PathwaysPlatform,theNewClimateEconomy,theNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL),whosharedinsightsfromtheirexperienceonlong-termstrategiesforcountries.VisibilityandlaunchofthereportweresupportedbyFerzinaBanaji,withCatherineSear,IsabelSaldarriagaArango,andJoanaFranciscadasNevesLopes.TheteamthanksChandniDinakaranforhersupportinthepublicationprocess.ThisworkwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithouttheguidanceandunwaveringsupportfromBarbaraMachado,PaulaGarcia,LibertyRamirezEspiritu,BeaulahNoble,andVidyaMahesh.Editor:MarionDavisDesign:BradAmburn6WorldBankOutlook2050:StrategicDirectionsNoteAbbreviationsandAcronymsBAPPENASMinistryofNationalDevelopmentPlanning(Indonesia)BAUBusinessasUsualBECCSBioenergywithCarbonCaptureandStorageBRTBusRapidTransitCCPERClimateChangePublicExpenditureReviewCCUSCarbonCapture,Utilization,andStorageCGIARConsultativeGrouponInternationalAgriculturalResearchCORSIACarbonOffsettingandReductionSchemeforInternationalAviationCPFCountryPartnershipFrameworkCSAClimate-smartAgricultureCSAIPClimate-smartAgriculturalInvestmentPlanCSPConcentratedSolarPowerDDPLACDeepDecarbonizationPathwaysforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanDE4ADigitalEconomyforAfricaMoonshotDRFIPDisasterRiskFinancingInsuranceProgramEAPPEasternAfricaPowerPoolERCEnergyResearchCenterESCOEnergyServiceCompanyESGEnvironmental,SocialandGovernanceETCEnergyTransitionsCommissionEVElectricVehicleFAOFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNationsFCPFForestCarbonPartnershipFacilityFCVFragility,ConflictandViolenceFIPForestInvestmentProgramFSAPFinancialSectorAssessmentProgramFSBFinancialStabilityBoardGDPGrossDomesticProductGFDRRGlobalFacilityforDisasterRiskReductionGHGGreenhouseGasGPGlobalPracticeGPSGlobalProgramonSustainabilityGtCO2eGigatonsofCarbonDioxideequivalentIAISInternationalAssociationofInsuranceSupervisorsIBRDInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopmentICAOInternationalCivilAviationOrganizationICTInformationandCommunicationTechnologyIDAInternationalDevelopmentAssociationIDCOLInfrastructureDevelopmentCompanyLimited(Bangladesh)IEAInternationalEnergyAgencyIFCInternationalFinanceCorporationIHAInternationalHydropowerAssociationIMFInternationalMonetaryFundIMOInternationalMaritimeOrganizationIOPSInternationalOrganizationofPensionSupervisorsIoTInternetofThingsIOSCOInternationalOrganizationofSecuritiesCommissionsIPCCInternationalPanelonClimateChangeIRENAInternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyITFInternationalTransportForumIUWMIntegratedUrbanWaterManagementLCDILowCarbonDevelopmentInitiative(Indonesia)LDCLeastDevelopedCountryLTSLong-termStrategyMDBMultilateralDevelopmentBankMIGAMultilateralInvestmentGuaranteeAgencyMRVMonitoring,Reporting,andVerificationMtCO2MetricTonsofCarbonDioxideMTEFMedium-termExpenditureFrameworkNGFSNetworkforGreeningtheFinancialSystemNDCNationallyDeterminedContributionNGONon-governmentalOrganizationOECDOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentPBLNetherlandsEnvironmentalAssessmentAgencyPFMPublicFinancialManagementPMEHPollutionManagementandEnvironmentalHealthPPPPublic-PrivatePartnershipPROFORTheProgramonForestsPVPhotovoltaicREDD+ReducingEmissionsfromDeforestationandForestDegradation(plussupportingroles)REIPPPRenewableEnergyIndependentPowerProcurementProgram(SouthAfrica)SCDStrategicCountryDiagnosticsSDGSustainableDevelopmentGoalSEDAPALLimaWaterService(Peru)SIDSSmallIslandDevelopingStateSOEState-ownedEnterpriseSUVSportsUtilityVehicleTCFDTaskForceonClimate-relatedFinancialDisclosuresTWhTerawatthourUNCTADTheUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopmentUNDESAUnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairsUNEPUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammeUNFCCCUNFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeVATValueAddedTaxWAVESWealthAccountingandtheValuationofEcosystemServices7WorldBankOutlook2050:StrategicDirectionsNoteExecutiveSummaryClimatechangeposeshugeriskstocountries’long-termdevelopment,economicgrowthandstability.Already,droughts,heatwaves,floodsandotherextremeeventsarecausingenormousdamage,oftenreversinghard-wondevelopmentgains.Inthemediumandlongterm,ithascriticalimplicationsforpoverty,foodsecurity,health,productivity,andqualityoflife.Aboldeconomictransformationisneededtoensureasafeandprosperousfuture.TheParisAgreementlaidthefoundation,invitingcountriestopledgeimmediateactiontoreduceemissions,thenkeepratchetingupambitiontoreachnet-zeroemissionsbythesecondhalfofthecentury.TheWorldBankiscommittedtohelpingcountriesrealizethevisionoftheParisAgreement,toreduceclimateriskwhilealleviatingpoverty,buildingsharedprosperity,andpromotingsustainabledevelopment.Italsorecognizesitscrucialroleinaligningfinanceflowswithapathwaytowardlowgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsandclimate-resilientdevelopment.DecarbonizingtheglobaleconomyrequiresgoingwellbeyondtheambitionofthefirstroundofNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs),whichwouldonlylimitwarmingto2.7–3.7°C.Indeed,acontinuedfocusonshort-andmedium-termtargets(suchas2020or2030)couldkeepcountriesfrommakingthefundamentalchangestheyneed,andmakedecarbonizationcostlierandmoredifficultoverthelongerterm.Thatiswhylong-termstrategiesarecrucialtoensuringthatcountries’near-termactionsareconsistentwiththeirultimategoals.Theycanhelpgovernmentstorecognizeclimate-relatedrisks—bothfromdirectimpacts,andfromthelow-carbontransitionitself,whichcouldsharplydevaluehigh-carbonassets.Thesestrategiescanhelpcountriestounlockneweconomicopportunities,innovate,andcreatethejobsofthefuture.TheWorldBankhasasignificantroletoplayinpilotingandscalinguplow-carbonsolutionsthroughappropriateprogrammingofdevelopmentfinanceandclimatefinanceandtheuseofinstrumentsthatbuildenablingconditions,de-risknewtechnologies,andstrengthenmarketsaroundthesesolutions.ThisOutlook2050examineshowtheWorldBankcanhelpcountriesplanforandachievelong-termdecarbonization:throughcountryprograms,technicalassistance,lending,andknowledgeproducts.Itidentifieskeytrendsintechnology,markets,financinginstruments,andconsumerpriorities,andexaminestheirimplicationsforclimateaction,economicgrowthstrategiesanddevelopment.ThiswillfurtherhelptheWorldBankdeliveronitsexistingcommitmentstoincreasesystemicimpactincountriestoaddressclimatechange.AsofMay2020,16countriesandtheEuropeanUnionhadsubmittedlong-termstrategiesundertheParisAgreement.Therearemanywaystoachievenet-zeroemissionsbythesecondhalfofthecentury;themostsuccessfulstrategieswillbetailoredtothenationalcontextandfullyembeddedinbroaderdevelopmentandfiscalpoliciesandinstitutions.Uncertaintyisunavoidable,butwithexperthelpandappropriatetools,policymakerscanweightrade-offsandrisks.8WorldBankOutlook2050:StrategicDirectionsNoteFortheWorldBank,supportingcountriesinatransitiontolong-termdecarbonizationrequiresustonotonlylook3–5yearsahead,roughlyequivalenttotypicalelectioncycles,butlookdecadesahead,andthenworkwithourclientstodeterminethenear-andmid-termimplications.Itwillalsomeansupportingtheimplementationofeconomy-widestrategiesaswellascross-sectoralinitiatives,notonlyfocusingonsingle-sectorinitiatives,suchasindividualenergyortransportationprojects.Coincidingwithaneedforamajor,globaleconomicrecovery—triggeredbytheCOVID-19pandemic—this‘wholeofeconomy’approachtodeliverbettergrowthandabetterclimatecouldprovidethesustainableandresilientfoundationforcountriesastheybuild—orrebuild—theireconomies.TheOutlook2050approachprioritizesfoureconomy-widestrategicdirections:Embedlong-termclimateprioritiesincountrymacroeconomicframeworks,toensurethatthoseframeworks,whichguidefiscalpolicyandmajornationalinvestments,properlyaccountforclimaterisksandthebenefitsofambitiousclimateaction.Embedlong-termclimateplanninginnationalbudgetsandexpenditureframeworks,toprovideadequatebudgetarysupportforclimateaction,optimizetheoverallallocationofpublicresources,andunlockprivatefinancialflows.Embedlong-termclimateobjectivesinfinancialsectorregulationsandincentives,toensurethatthesectorisresilientbothtoclimatechangeimpactsandtolow-carbontransitionrisks,andtomobilizefinanceforclimateaction.Embedlong-termclimateobjectivesinsystemsplanning,tointegrateclimatewitheconomic,socialinclusion,andotherobjectives;assesscross-sectorallinksandregionalimpacts;andidentifytrade-offsandsynergies.Thereareanumberofsectorswhereclimateimpactsareat—orcloseto—tippingpoints.Tacklingthesewithalong-termplanninghorizonoffersbothmitigationandadaptationbenefits.Investinginthesecross-sectoralopportunitiescanalsobepartofstimuluspackagesthatshapeasustainablerecovery.Opportunitiestoadvancedevelopmentandclimateconsiderationstogetherinclude:Transformingfoodsystems,recognizingthatfoodproductionandsupplysystemsneedtoscaleupdramaticallyinthecomingdecades,butthatthesearealsoamajorsourceofemissionsandhighlyvulnerabletoclimatechange.Protectingland-basedecosystemsandcarbonsinks,includingforests,whicharecrucialtosustaininghumanlife,butaregrowingsourcesofGHGemissionsduetoland-usechangeandlanddegradation.Transformingenergysystems,withafocusondecarbonizinganddecentralizingthepowersector,ensuringaplentifulsupplyoflow-carbonelectricitytomeetgrowingdemand,enhancingresourceefficiencyofenergyproductionanduse,andaligningpowersectorinvestmentswithclimategoals.Transformingmobility,byreducingtheneedtotravelthroughbetterlanduseplanningandotherstrategies;shiftingthemodesbywhichpeopletravel,especiallyawayfromprivatevehicleuse;andreducingemissionsfromalltransportmodesthroughtechnologicalinnovation.9WorldBankOutlook2050:StrategicDirectionsNoteBuildinglow-carbon,moreresilienturbanareasthatincreaselivability,recognizingthatby2050,morethantwo-thirdsoftheglobalpopulationwillliveincities,whicharemajorsourcesofemissionsandhighlyvulnerabletoclimateimpacts.Transformingwatersystems,whicharealreadyundergrowingpressurefromclimatechange,playacentralroleinmanysectors,andareagrowingsourceofemissions.Transformingtheoceaneconomy,recognizingthattheoceansdirectlysupportmillionsoflivelihoods,providevitalecosystemsservices,andabsorbalargeshareofGHGemissions.Digitaltransformation,tounleashthetransformativepowerofdigitaltechnologiesforbothemissionreductionandresilienceacrossallsectors,andtoreducethedigitalsector’slargeandgrowingemissions.Theworkoutlinedinthisreportwilltaketime,butthereareimmediateopportunitiestohelpcountriesshapeasustainablerecovery.Todate,theWorldBankGroup’sassistancetofightCOVID-19hasnowreached100developingcountriesinMay2020,thelargestandfastestcrisisresponseintheGroup’shistory.Byhelpingcountriesbuildbackbetter,focusingonlonger-termpathways,wearenotonlysupportingourclients’effortstoreducethemultipleimpactsofthiscrisis:wearealsohelpingtolaysolidfoundationsforfacingthenextone.Outlook2050:StrategicDirectionsandCross-CuttingAreasStrategicDirections:IntegrateLong-TermClimateObjectivesinMacroEconomicNationalBudgetFinancialSectorSystemsFrameworksandExpenditureRegulationsandPlanningFrameworksIncentivesCross-CuttingSolutions

FoodSystemsTransformationEnhancingCarbonSinksandManagingLandUseTransitionEnergySystemsTransformationSustainableMobilityTransformationUrbanSystemsTransformationWaterSystemsTransformationBlueEconomyTransformationDigitalTransformation10WorldBankOutlook2050:StrategicDirectionsNoteIntroductionClimatechangeisa‘wholeofeconomy’challenge,posingriskstoeconomicgrowthandmacroeconomicstability.Thecurrentpaceandscaleofclimateactionareinsufficienttolimittheworsteffectsandensureasafeandsustainablefuture.Thechallengeforcountriesisnotjusttostaythecourseongreenhousegas(GHG)emissionreductionefforts,buttoembarkonalong-termpathtodecarbonizetheworldeconomyandbuildcommunities’resiliencetofutureclimatechange.TheseactionswillalmostcertainlybeaffectedbythehealthandeconomicimpactsofCOVID-19.Climatechangeisalsoaglobaldevelopmentchallenge.Droughts,heatwaves,floodsandotherextremeeventsarewreakingevermorehavoc.Between1999and2018,thereweremorethan12,000extremeweathereventsworldwide,killingabout495,000peopleandcausingeconomiclossesequivalenttoaboutUS$3.54trillion(Ecksteinetal.2019).Formanycountries,asingledisastercanwipeoutadecadeofhard-wondevelopmentgains.TheCOVID-19crisishasshownhowalargeenoughshockcanrapidlypullmillionsofpeoplebackintopoverty;inthemediumandlongterm,climatechangecouldcausefarworsehardship.Itisclearthatmajorinvestmentsinbothmitigationandadaptationaresorelyneeded.ClimateactioninlinewiththeParisAgreementrepresentsanenormousopportunitytoadvancetheWorldBankGroup’smissiontoreducepoverty,buildsharedprosperity,andpromotesustainabledevelopment.TheAgreementaimsto“strengthentheglobalresponsetothethreatofclimatechange,inthecontextofsustainabledevelopmentandeffortstoeradicatepoverty”(UNFCCC2015).Achievingthatvisionposessignificantchallenges,however,asitrequiresnationstofundamentallyrethinktheireconomicgrowthstrategiesanddevelopmentplans.ForthistheywillneedbothfinanceandtechnicalsupportfromdevelopmentpartnerssuchastheWorldBank.TheWorldBankGroupiscommittedtohelpingitsclientssetandachieveambitiousclimategoals.TheClimateChangeActionPlan2016–2020increasedtheshareoffinanceforclimateactionandprovidedsupportforcountriestolayoutlow-carbon,climateresilientdevelopmentpathways(WorldBank,IFC,andMIGA2016).The2025TargetstoStepupClimateAction(WorldBank2019a)deepenthatcommitment,withincreasedsupportforadaptationthroughanActionPlanonClimateChangeAdaptationandResilience(WorldBank2019b),thefirstplanofitskind.TheWorldBankhasthusmadeimportantstridesinintegratingclimateinitscountryengagements,butthefocussofarhasbeenmainly