Ch-2-Balance-of-Payments-Adjustments英語教學(xué)課件

Ch2Balance-of-PaymentsAdjustmentsIntroduction本章主要內(nèi)容Exchange-RatechangesandBOPAdjustment浮動匯率制下國際收支調(diào)節(jié)ElasticityapproachAbsorptionapproachMonetaryapproachAutomaticadjustmentmechanismsunderfixedexchange-ratesystem固定匯率制下的自動調(diào)節(jié)機(jī)制PriceAdjustmentsInterest-RateAdjustmentsIncomeAdjustmentsMonetaryApproachGovernmentPolicies國際收支的政府政策調(diào)節(jié)Exchange-Ratechanges

andBOPAdjustmentImpactofexchange-ratechangesonthebalanceofpayments浮動匯率制下匯率變動對國際收支的影響conditionsunderwhichcurrencydepreciationandappreciationwillimprove/worsenanation’spaymentsposition貶值改善收支的條件？RequirementsforaSuccessfulDepreciation

對貶值改善國際收支的分析Approachestocurrencydepreciation:貨幣貶值對國際收支影響的三種分析方法ElasticityapproachAbsorptionapproachMonetaryapproachElasticityApproach匯率調(diào)節(jié)之彈性分析EmphasizestherelativepriceeffectsofdepreciationSuggeststhatdepreciationworksbestwhendemandelasticitiesarehigh需求價格彈性高時，貶值較有效Elasticityistheratioofthepercentagechangeinthequantitydemandedtothepercentagechangeinprice需求價格彈性的定義Elasticity=(ΔQ*P)/(Q*ΔP)ElasticityApproachMarshall-Lernercondition馬歇爾勒納條件（p35）Depreciationwillimprovethetradebalanceifthecurrency-depreciatingnation’sdemandelasticityforimportsplustheforeigndemandelasticityforthenation’sexportsexceeds1.Ifthesumofthedemandelasticitiesislessthan1,depreciationwillworsenthetradebalanceThetradebalancewillbeneitherhelpednorhurtifthesumofthedemandelasticitiesequals1ContinuedEffectofdepreciationofthepoundontheBritishtradebalance英鎊貶值對貿(mào)易收支的影響？？？？ImportExporttradebalance1.1*0.75－1=－0.1751*1.15－1=0.150.15－(－0.175)=0.3251.1*0.98－1=0.0781*1.01－1=0.010.01－(0.078)=-0.068DepreciationFlowchart本幣貶值影響價格進(jìn)而影響需求從而影響進(jìn)出口的過程J-CurveEffect:

TimePathofDepreciation（p36）CurrencydepreciationaffectstradebalanceAdjustmentofbothpricesandquantitiesNetimpactonexportreceiptsandimportexpendituresJ曲線效應(yīng)J-curveeffectInitialeffectisanincreaseinimportexpendituresHome-currencypriceofimportshasrisen,butthevolumeisunchangedowingtopriorcommitmentsAstimepasses,thequantityadjustmenteffectbecomesrelevantDomesticcompaniesneedtimeandspareresourcetomeetincreasedforeigndemandExample:U.S.balanceoftrade(1980sand1990s)

Between1980and1987,theU.S.merchandisetradedeficitexpandedatarapidrate.Thetradedeficitdecreasedsubstantiallybetween1988and1991.Therapidincreaseinthetradedeficitthattookplaceduringtheearly1980soccurredmainlybecauseoftheappreciationofthedollaratthetime,whichresultedinasteadyincreaseinimportsandadropinU.S.exports.Thedepreciationofthedollarthatbeganin1985ledtoaboominexportsin1988andadropinthetradedeficitthrough1991.TimepathofU.S.balanceoftrade(inbillionsofdollars)inresponsetodollarappreciationanddepreciationJ-CurveEffect:

TimePathofDepreciationAdjustmentlagsMaybefouryearsormoreMajorportiontakesplaceinabouttwoyearsTypesoflagsRecognitionlagsDecisionlagsReplacementlags(replacinginventories)Productionlags(adjustingtheproductionprocess)ContinuedTheAbsorptionApproach

匯率調(diào)節(jié)之吸收分析Dealswiththeincomeeffectsofdepreciation討論本幣貶值通過收入支出對貿(mào)易收支的影響B(tài)alanceoftrade(CAB)equalsthedifferencebetweenGrossnationaldisposableincome(GNDY)

andlevelofabsorption(A)Currencydepreciationwillimprovetradebalanceonlyifnationaloutputrisesrelativetoabsorption本幣貶值如能使得收入相對于支出增加，則能改善貿(mào)易收支。Acountrymustincreaseitstotaloutput,reduceitsabsorption,ordosomecombinationofthetwoExpression:CAB=GNDY

－ATheMonetaryApproach

匯率調(diào)節(jié)之貨幣分析匯率變動的彈性分析和吸收分析僅僅關(guān)注貿(mào)易收支，忽略了資本流動的影響。對貶值效果的貨幣分析彌補(bǔ)了這個缺陷。Adepreciationofthehomecurrencywouldincreasethepricelevel(thatis,thedomestic-currencypriceofpotentialimportsandexports).Thisincreasewouldincreasethedemandformoney,becauselargeamountofmoneyareneededfortransactions.IFthatdemandisnotfulfilledfromdomesticsources,aninflowofmoneyfromoverseasoccurs.ThisinflowresultsinaBOPsurplusandariseininternationalreserves.Butthesurplusdoesnotlastlong.Increasedmoneysupplyleadstoanincreaseinspending(absorption),whichreducesthesurplus.Effectsofdepreciation:貶值短期內(nèi)可能改善國際收支，從長期看只會提高國內(nèi)物價。Temporaryimprovementinbalance-of-paymentspositionRaisesthedomesticpricelevelinthelong-run國際收支自動調(diào)節(jié)機(jī)制Automaticadjustmentofthebalance-of-paymentsunderfixedexchange-ratesystemPriceAdjustmentsInterest-RateAdjustmentsIncomeAdjustmentsMonetaryAdjustmentsPriceAdjustments回顧金本位和貨幣數(shù)量說GoldStandard:Existedfromthelate1800stotheearly1900sCharacterizedbythreeconditions金本位制三個特征Eachmembernation’smoneysupplyconsistedofgoldorpapermoneybackedbygoldEachmembernationdefinedtheofficialpriceofgoldintermsofitsnationalcurrencyandwaspreparedtobuyandsellgoldatthatpriceFreeimportandexportofgoldwaspermittedQuantityTheoryofMoney

貨幣數(shù)量說Equationofexchange：AmountspentonfinalgoodsequalstheamountreceivedfromsellingthemClassicaleconomists:additionalassumptionsQfixedatthefullemploymentlevelinthelongrunVwasconstantAchangeinmoneysupply(M)mustinduceadirectandproportionatechangeinPBOPAdjustmentUndertheclassicalGoldStandard,thebalanceofpaymentsislinkedtoanation’smoneysupply,whichislinkedtoitsdomesticpricelevel.Originaltheoryofbalance-of-paymentsadjustment:DavidHume(1711–1776)：Anation’sbalanceofpaymentstendstomovetowardequilibriumautomaticallyDeficitnationGoldoutflow,reductioninmoneysupplyandthusitspricelevel,competitivenessenhanced,importsfallandexportsrise,tillbalance-of-paymentsequilibriumisrestoredSurplusnationGoldinflowsandanincreaseinitsmoneysupply,……tillequilibriumisrestoredBOP—MONEYSUPPLY—PRICELEVEL—BOP

Debateoverprice-adjustmentmechanism

價格調(diào)整機(jī)制之爭議Linkagebetweenchangesinanation’sgoldsupplyandchangesinitsmoneysupplyNoLongerHolds.黃金儲備與貨幣供應(yīng)之間的關(guān)系？FullemploymentassumptionChallenged.充分就業(yè)的假設(shè)？Pricesandwagesinflexibleinadownwarddirection價格與工資的粘性？Deficitcountry’sfallingmoneysupplywillcauseafallinoutputandemploymentratherthanafallinprice.StabilityandpredictabilityofVQuestioned.貨幣流通速度為常數(shù)的假設(shè)？Interest-RateAdjustments利率調(diào)節(jié)機(jī)制討論國際收支狀況對短期利率的影響進(jìn)而對短期私人資本流動的影響ImpactofsurplusordeficitonShort-terminterestratesandhenceonshort-termprivatecapitalflowsInterestratemovementsinresponsetomoneysupply,promptingcapitalflowsCapitalmovementsareshort-term,stabilisingAutomaticrestorationofpaymentsequilibriumRulesofthegameDuringactualprocess,centralbanksagreetoreinforceandspeeduptheadjustmentprocessbyexpandingcreditwhileinsurplusandtighteningcreditwhileindeficit.央行為促進(jìn)國際收支調(diào)整，主動采取信貸收縮（或擴(kuò)張）政策以減少逆差（順差）。BOP—MONEYSUPPLY—INTERESTRATE—CAPITALFLOW—BOP

FinancialFlowsandInterest-RateDifferentials

資本流動與利差Mostimportantfactorthatcausesfinancialassetstomoveacrossnationalbordersisinterest-ratedifferential最重要的因素：各國利差Otherfactorsimportanttoo:investmentprofitability,nationaltaxpolicies,politicalstability…其他影響因素：投資回報率、各國稅收政策、國內(nèi)政治穩(wěn)定等等。Discouragingfinancialflows阻礙資本流動的因素Interestequalizationtax:利息平衡稅1964-1974,taxingU.S.investorsondividendandinterestincomefromforeignsecurities.Foreign-credit-restraintprogram:對外信貸限制措施placingdirectrestrictionsonforeignlendingbyU.S.banksandfinancialinstitutionsandlateronforeignlendingofnon-financialcorporations,resultinginanupwardshiftfromCFA0toCFA1.Example:HypotheticalcapitalandfinancialaccountschedulesfortheUnitedStates美國資本和金融項目收支狀況（假設(shè)情形）Assumesthatinterest-ratedifferentialsarethebasicdeterminantoffinancialflowsRelativelyhigh(low)U.S.interestratestriggernetfinancialinflows(outflows)andanupward(downward)movementalongtheCFAline.Thelineshiftsupward/downwardinresponsetochangesinnon-interest-ratedeterminantssuchasinvestmentprofitability,taxpolicies,andpoliticalstability.HypotheticalU.S.capitalandfinancialaccountschedule美國資本和金融項目收支狀況（假設(shè)情形）IncomeAdjustmentsCriticismofclassicaltheory:almostcompletelyneglectedtheeffectofincomeadjustment(purchasingpowerofsurplusnationwouldriserelativetothatofthedeficitnation…).梅納德凱恩斯Theoryofincomedetermination–JohnMaynardKeynes(1930s)UnderfixedexchangeratesInfluenceofincomechangesinsurplusanddeficitnationswouldhelprestorepaymentsequilibriumautomatically:givenapersistentpaymentsimbalance,asurplusnationwillexperiencingrisingincomehencerisingimports.BOP—NATIONALINCOME—IMPORT—BOP

DisadvantagesofautomaticAdjustmentMechanisms

國際收支自動調(diào)節(jié)機(jī)制的缺陷MajorshortcomingRequirescentralbankerstoforgotheiruseofmonetarypolicytopromotethegoaloffullemploymentwithoutinflation;eachnationmustbewillingtoacceptinflationorrecessionwhenbalance-of-paymentsadjustmentrequiresit.Today,unemploymenteliminationisoftengivenpriorityoverbalance-of-paymentequilibrium.Modernnationsarereluctanttomakesignificantinternalsacrificesforthesakeofexternalequilibrium.Politicalunacceptable.MonetaryAdjustments

國際收支調(diào)整之貨幣分析法（p38）Monetaryapproachtothebalanceofpayments(1960sand1970s),UniversityofChicago,RobertMundell,HarryJohnson.通過貨幣渠道的傳遞，國際收支經(jīng)自我調(diào)整趨向平衡。Anexternalimbalanceaffectstheeconomyindirectlythroughthemonetaryrouteinamannerthattendstoreducetheimbalance.AsintheclassicalandKeynesianapproaches,adjustmentinthebalanceofpaymentsisviewedasanautomaticprocess.Assumption:Demandformoneyisastablefunctionofrealincome,prices,andinterestratesoverthelongrun.貨幣論對貨幣需求函數(shù)的假設(shè)QuantityofnominalmoneydemandDirectlyrelatedtoincomeandpricesInverselyrelatedtotheinterestrateNation’smoneysupplyisamultipleofthemonetarybasethatincludestwocomponents:貨幣供給由國內(nèi)和國外兩部分組成Domesticcomponent:creditcreatedbydomesticmonetaryauthorities.Internationalcomponent:anation’sforeignexchangereserve自我調(diào)整的過程：Acountryindeficit(surplus)experiencesamultipleshrinkage(expansion)initsmoneysupply.Sincemuchspendingintheeconomy,andthereforeoutput,employmentandincome,dependsontheavailabilityofbankloans.“Tight”moneyandhigherinterestratewillcurtailinvestment,homeconstructionandothereconomicactivitiesthatdependonborrowedfunds.Assuchreductionspreadsthroughtheeconomy,peoplearelessabletoaffordimportedgoods,andtheeconomyneedslessimportedmaterialsandenergy.Tightermoneysupplyalsocurtailstherateofpriceincreases,therebymakingthecountrymorecompetitive.

逆差國貨幣供應(yīng)減少，貨幣緊縮可能帶來消費和投資的下降，因而減少進(jìn)口；貨幣緊縮使得物價上升得到抑制，因而增強(qiáng)了本國產(chǎn)品及服務(wù)的價格優(yōu)勢。Monetaryapproachmaintainsthat貨幣論認(rèn)為Disequilibriuminthebalanceofpaymentsisprimarilyamonetaryphenomenon.國際收支的不平衡是一個貨幣現(xiàn)象。Allpaymentsdeficitsaretheresultofanexcesssupplyofmoneyinthehomecountry.逆差源于國內(nèi)超額貨幣供應(yīng)。國內(nèi)的超額貨幣需求引致國際收支順差。Anexcessdemandformoneyinthehomecountryleadstoapaymentssurplusandanexcesssupplyofmoney……Balanceinanation’spaymentpositionisrestoredwhenexcesssupplyofmoney,orexcessdemandformoney,hasfallenenoughtorestoretheequilibriumcondition:Moneysupplyequalsmoneysupply.貨幣供給與需求平衡時，國際收支恢復(fù)平衡。InternationalEconomics(10thedition)RobertJ.CarbaughChangeinthesupplyofmoneyanddemandformoneyunderfixedexchangerates:ImpactontheBOPaccordingtotheMonetaryApproach固定匯率制下貨幣供給與貨幣需求的變動對國際收支的影響（國際收支調(diào)整的貨幣主義分析法）：假設(shè)國際收支一開始處于平衡狀態(tài)，且該國貨幣需求等于貨幣供給。根據(jù)貨幣分析法，貨幣供給的增加會引起國際收支的逆差。Moneyactsasbothadisturbanceandanadjustmenttothebalanceofpayments.Whatdoyouthink?TheStructuralApproach

國際收支調(diào)整之結(jié)構(gòu)論（p40）ThisapproachtotheBalanceofPaymentsarosefromaconsiderationofdevelopingcountries,buthasalsobeenappliedtodevelopedcountries結(jié)構(gòu)論源于從發(fā)展中國家的情況出發(fā)考慮國際收支的不平衡及其調(diào)整問題1.Balanceofpaymentsimbalancesoftenarisefromstructuralimbalanceswithintheeconomywhicharisebecausegrowthanddevelopmentinvolvecontinuousprocessesofstructuralchange.Thesemayleadto:(a)differentregionsgrowingatdifferentspeeds,heUK,theSoutheastgrowingfasterthantheNortheast.HighincomeintheSoutheastleadstoincreaseddemandforimports,whichcannotbeproducedintheNortheast.Thelackofmobilityoflabourensuresthattheimbalanceremains.(b)differentsectorsgrowingatdifferentspeeds,causingsupplybottleneckse.g.indevelopingeconomies,urbansectorsmaygrowrapidly,butagriculturalsectorsmaybeunabletoadjustrapidly,leadingtotheincreasedimportoffood.(c)changingpatternsofdemand.Countriesmaybeunabletoshiftresourcesawayfromproductsthatarenolongercompetitiveinternationallyintonewproductsforwhichprospectsappearbrighter.2.Particularproblemswillarisewhere:(a)acountry'sexportsareincome-inelastic:asworldincomerises,thedemandforexportsdoesnotkeeppace(oldheavyindustries:shipbuildingetc);(b)itsimportsareincome-elastic:growthleadsdirectlytobalanceofpaymentsdeficits(essentialrawmaterials,foreign-producedconsumergoods,energysources).3.Theelasticitiesandotherapproachesaregenerallyconcernedwithprice-competitiveness.Here,rather,thefocusisonquality,deliverydates,after-salesserviceetc.Depreciationoftheexchangerate,thusimprovingprice-competitiveness,willonlybeoftemporaryassistance.Thelong-rundeclinecontinuesbecauseofnon-pricecompetitiveness.Thisisoftenduetoinadequateinvestmentand/orinadequatetrainingofthework-force.adevelopingcountrycaseWorseningagriculturaltermsoftradeleadstoabalanceofpaymentsdeficit,whichinturnleadstoashortageofforeignexchange.Thismeansthelackofabilitytobuyimportedcapitalequipmentnecessarytodiversifyintootherindustriesortoincreasetheproductivityofalreadyexistingindustries.Allthismeansthatgrowthmayinducebalanceofpaymentsproblemsandthatsuchproblemsmayactasaconstraintonfurthergrowth.Withindevelopedcountries,balance-of-payments-constrainedgrowthmayleadtodeindustrializationandtheshrinkingofthecountry'smanufacturingbase.StructuralApproach—PolicyimplicationIncaseofastructuralchangeinexternalbalance,itrequires:(a)governmentintervention:governmentinvestmentinordertoimprovenon-pricecompetitivenessandtofosteraswitchfromexportswithlowincome-elasticitiestoindustrieswithhighincome-elasticities;(b)selectedimportcontrolstoprotectindustrieswhiletheyimprovenon-pricecompetitiveness;(c)possiblyexchangecontrolstohelprationscarceforeignexchange.StructuralApproach—Criticisms(a)itadoptstoopessimisticaviewoftheabilityofadevelopingcountrytoswitchresourcestotheexportsectorinlinewithchangesincomparativeadvantage;(b)itunderestimatestheextenttowhichresourcescanbetransferredthroughthepricemechanism;(c)assumptionsaboutthepossibilitiesofsubstitutionbetweendomesticandforeigninputsmaybetoorigid.BOPadjustment—GovernmentPolicies

國際收支失衡的政府政策調(diào)節(jié)DomesticpolicymeasuresandtheCurrentAccount對經(jīng)常項目的調(diào)節(jié)MonetaryPolicies貨幣政策FiscalPolicies財政政策EffectonDirectInvestmentCapital對直接投資的調(diào)節(jié)EffectonOtherCapitalMovements對其他資本流動的調(diào)節(jié)InternalandExternalPolicyTargets內(nèi)外均衡的協(xié)調(diào)expenditure-changingpolicies

支出增減政策Toreinforcetheautomaticmechanisms,acountryindeficitneedstopursuetightfiscalandmonetarypolicies.Thislowersincomeandhenceimportsandimprovesthecurrentaccount.Asurpluscountrydoesthereverse.Thesearecalledexpenditure-changingpolicies,becauseremedyadeficit(surplus)byreducing(increasing)aggregateexpenditures.Theyareapplicableunderbothafixedandaflexibleexchangerate;ifinthelattercasethegovernmentisconcernedwithachievingequilibriumonthecurrentaccount.逆差國采用緊縮的貨幣和財政政策，順差國相反。支出增減政策適用于固定匯率制也適用于浮動匯率制。逆差國—緊縮的貨幣財政政策TightMonetaryPoliciesRaiseinterestrateIncreasereserverequirementsofcommercialbanksSellgovernmentbondsintheopenmarkettherebywithdrawingmoneyfromtheeconomyTightFiscalPoliciesRaisetaxesLowergovernmentspending順差國—擴(kuò)張的貨幣財政政策略EffectonDirectInvestmentCapital

對直接投資的調(diào)節(jié)因為自動調(diào)節(jié)機(jī)制的作用以及政府的擴(kuò)張性政策，順差國的順差將減少，但國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)的擴(kuò)張可能吸引外國直接投資的進(jìn)入。因此，政府調(diào)節(jié)政策的效果可能部分地被國際資本流動抵消：Whenasurpluscountryexperiencesautomaticexpansionreinforcedbygovernmentpolicy,theeffectonthebalanceoftradeistoreducethesurplus.Buttheexpansionalsoattractsforeigninvestment(long-termcapital),aninpaymentitemthatincreasesthesurplus.Theconvertistruewithdeficitcountries.EffectonOtherCapitalMovements

對其他資本流動的調(diào)節(jié)Portfoliocapitalmovementreferstotheplacementoffundsinforeignbonds,stocks,andbankaccounts(notFDI).Thesefundsaresensitivetointerestratedifferentialsbetweencountries.Forexample,theBritishgovernmentcandealwithatemporaryBOPdeficitbyraisingtherateofinterestandattractingshortingshort-termcapital.Majorshortcoming:canbecostly,becauseitmeanshigherinterestpaymentsontheinternalpublicdebt.Empiricalstudiesshowmixedresults.Differentthinking:ThePortfolioApproach—theflowoffundsduetointerestdifferentialswillstopbeforeinterestequilibriumisreached.ThePortfolioApproach.Domesticandforeignassetsarenotperfectsubstitutes.國內(nèi)資產(chǎn)和國外資產(chǎn)并非完全可替代Peopledividetheirwealthbetweendomesticandforeignassetsinordertoprotectthemselvesagainstrisk.分散投資的目的是降低風(fēng)險Theextenttowhichtheydiversifytheirassetsdependsonmanyfactors,onefactorbeingrelativeinterestratesathomeandabroad.Evenifhomeinterestrate