節(jié)能減排與十一五規(guī)劃目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)電子教案

節(jié)能減排與十一五規(guī)劃目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)PopulationGrowth

1950-2006populationincrease

>Last4millionyearspopulationincrease

EconomicGrowth

GDPoftheyear2000

>GDPoftheentire19thcentury人類紀(jì)時(shí)代

Anthropocene——人類正在改變地球(PaulCrutzen)U.S.BureauoftheCensusVitousek(1994)GLOBALCHANGESPopulation

NitrogenFixation

TemperatureBiodiversity

………..1.全球范圍的影響地球系統(tǒng)功能的變化2.不僅僅只是氣候變化3.自然和人類的變化同時(shí)作用4.社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和生物物理的變化同時(shí)作用例如:Reid&Miller(1989)Chinahas22%oftheworld’spopulationwithlimitednaturalresourcesCultivatedland:1/3ofworldaveragelevelWater:1/4ofworldaveragelevelForestry:1/5ofworldaveragelevelOil:1/10ofworldaveragelevelNaturalGas:1/22ofworldaveragelevelResourcesofChinaConsumption8%Oil-oftheworld40%Cement-oftheworld31%Coal-oftheworld25%Aluminum-oftheworld31%CrudesteeloftheworldProductionGDP4%-oftheworldConsumptioninChinaIfChinahasthesamepaperconsumptionpercapitalasUS，weneedfourearth’sforest.Automobileconsumption:threeearth’sleadforthebatteryRapidUrbanizationGeneratesSevereEnvironmentalProblemsEconomicCostofAirandWaterPollutionGDP5-7%(3–5%)QualityofLife&EnvironmentalHealthof460millions

(500millions)populationinUrbanEnvironmentEnvironmentalProblemsInterconnectThroughInterfaceMatterExchange

bottommudNutrientSalt

CarbonSourceOrganicMatterHeavyMetalorganicpollutant

TerrestrialEcosystemAtmosphere–BiosphereExchangeSO2,

NOx,NH3,VOCNH4+,NO3-,SO42-Oxidant(PAN,O3)，particulate

PAH，PCB，organicpesticideWaterHydrophyticEcosystemHealth

EffectsofAirPollutioninChina(UNDP2002)Eachyear:1.5millioncasesofbronchitis,and23,000and13,000deathsfromrespiratoryandheartdiseases.In2000:600,000prematuredeaths,5.5millioncasesofchronicbronchitis,and20millioncasesofrespiratoryillnessChildren’sblood-leadlevels:upto80percentabovecriticallevels7.4millionworkingdayslosttohealthproblemsrelatedtoairpollutionHealthEffectsofWaterPollutioninChina(UNDP2002)Only19percentofthetotalpopulationhasaccesstotapwaterinChina.Thedrinkingwaterof6ofChina’s27largestcitiesdoesnotmeetChina’snationalstandards.Groundwaterdoesnotmeetstandardsin23ofthesecities.In1993approximately8percentofagriculturalareasusedunfitwaterforagriculturalpurposes,whichresultedinanestimatedlossofgrainproductionof1milliontons.TheWorldBank(Johnsonetal.,1997)hasestimatedthatifwastewatertreatmentwereincreasedfromthecurrent20%to50%coverage,totalgrainproductioncouldincreaseby24milliontonsby2020.InZhejiangProvince:fivetoeighttimesmorbidityfromintestinalcancercausedbymicrocystintoxinsinwater,thanamongpeoplewhohaveaccesstocleanerdrinkingwaterChinanowhashighestlivercancerdeathrateintheworld.InsouthernChina,aninvestigationof560,000peoplein23villagesandtownsshowedthatbetween1987and1989,cancermortalitywas172per100,000Thereweretwiceasmanycancerpatientsinthesewage-irrigatedarea(Wuetal.,1999).PossibleImpactsofClimateChangesonChina與1961年到1990年的平均氣溫相比，到2020年，全國年平均將升溫1.3℃到2.1℃；2030年，年平均升溫為1.5℃到2.8℃；到2050年，年平均升溫將達(dá)到2.3℃到3.3℃。2020,averagetemperaturewillraise1.3to2.1℃,2050,2.3-3.3℃.到2020年，全國年平均降水量將增加2％到3％，到2050年可能增加5％到7％。北方降水天數(shù)增加，但受到氣溫上升的影響，水資源短缺狀況還會(huì)加劇。2020,averageprecipitationwillraise2%-3%,2050,5%-7%.Watershortage在未來20年到50年中，氣候變化將嚴(yán)重影響中國長期的糧食安全。FoodSecurity未來50年，青藏高原80％到90％的島狀凍土?xí)l(fā)生退化，表層凍土面積會(huì)減少10％到15％。Glacialretreatandfrozenearthdegradation…——《氣候變化國家評(píng)估報(bào)告》“ClimateChangeNationalAssessmentReport”GlobalClassroom

PossibleImpactsofChinaonGlobalClimateChangesandRegionalTrans-boundaryAirQuality

EnvironmentalChallenges:1.Global:willbetheNo.1emitterbytheendofthisdecade2.RegionalAirQuality3.RegionalWeatherModification4.WaterResourcesandQualityTIPoftheICEBERG

SARS“EnvironmentalHealth”Time200320202050PrimaryEnergyTotalEnergyConsumption(108tce)16.829~50Coal%67.1~55~40Oil%22.7~22.0~23.0Gas%2.8~8.0~12.0Hydropower+NuclearEnergy%7.4~8.0~10.0Renewable%/~7.0~15.0OilConsumption（108t/%）2.6/1004.5/100~8.0/100Import（108t/%）0.9/352.7/60~6.2/78Transportation（108t%）~0.7/272.56/57~5.0/62PowerTotalInstallation（108kw/%）3.9/1009.5/10024/100CoalPower（108kw/%）2.9/745.9/629.6/40GasPower（108kw/%）/0.55/61.2/5HydroPower（108kw/%）0.95/242.45/263.6/15NuclearPower（108kw/%）0.06/1.60.36/3.72.4/10Renewable（108kw/%）/0.22/2.37.2/30PredictionforChinaEnergyDevelopment

SharpincreaseofDemand:-energyconsumptionpercapitain2003was1.2tonsStandardCoal-2020willbe2.0tons.-2050willreach3.0tons.CoalasmostimportantPrimaryEnergy:-200367%oftotalenergyconsumption-205040%oftotalenergyconsumption*Annualproductionwillbecomestableataround3billiontafter2020.EnsuringoilsupplyisthekeytoenergysecurityofChina:-2003importedoil35%oftotaloilconsumption.*domesticoilproductionstableataround0.18billiontonsperyear-2050importedoilwillreachaheightof78%oftotaloilconsumption.LargescaledevelopmentofRenewableenergy:2020renewableenergyisexpectedtoamountto15%2050renewableenergyisexpectedtoamountto30%MainfeaturesofEnergyDevelopmentofChinainthefirsthalfof21century:

High-efficiencylow-pollutioncoal-firedPowerGenerationBio-fuel&otherliquidfuelsforoilreplacementEnergysaving-alternativefuelandelectronicautomobileElectrificationrailtransportationLargescalerenewableenergygenerationFast-growingplantsforbio-fuel&H-generationfromsolarenergy

SixStrategicAreasofDevelopment:ENERGYEFFICIENCYinChina1/3ofUS1/9ofJapanChina’s11th5-YearPlan2010EnergyConsumptionperGDPreduce20%MainPollutantreduce10%2020RenewableEnergyriseto16%OPPORTUNITIESBuilding&ConstructionEnergyEfficiencyMaterialsIntelligentDesignsManagement

RenewableEnergySolarEnergyWindEnergyBio-fuel

TransportationSystemPublictransportationElectricalrailElectricalBicyclesHybridFuels

IntegratedWaterResourceManagement

PublicHealthSystemsKnowledgeBasedEconomicDevelopmentInnovationTransparencyIntellectualPropertyRuledbyLaw

“EnergyEfficiency”EnergyAuditOff-setTechnologyInnovationJapan;NorthAmerica;EuropeIndia;ChinaTrade–environmentalBalanceBeyond2020Vision50YearsEnergyPlan50YearsWaterPlan50YearsHumanResourcesDevelopmentPlan50YearsInternationalStrategy(non-traditional)

1stIndustrialRevolutionI=PxAxT1I = EnvironmentalImpactP = PopulationA = AffluenceT1 = CurrentTechnology = Extractive Linear FossilFuelDriven Abusive Wasteful FocusedonLaborProductivity

PxA

T2T2 = FutureTechnology = reusable,cyclicSolarEnergyHydrogenEconomyBiomimeticTechnologyEfficientTechnologyetc2ndIndustrialRevolutionI=SystematicChanges–SystemReformSmallandMediumEnterpriseEnvironmentalandIntellectualPropertyProtectionInnovativeCultureExtensionServicetoLocal&ProvinciallevelsLeadershipDevelopmentforChangingworldCHALLENGES

TakeHomeMessage:

OpportunitiesEnvironmentalCrisisHotTopicsCDM(CleanDevelopmentMechanisms)Climate“Exchange”中國特色、世界影響

ChinaClimateExchange

-policyrecommendationCCX–ChicagoClimateExchangeInternationalStandardValidation,Audition,MonitoringcapacitybuildingConsultingandtrainingsystemTechnologyimportandInnovationFourEModeEcono