銀行業(yè)：香港本地銀行價(jià)值在提升

aimer31Jan2023價(jià)值在提升gFAhtiseccom熱點(diǎn)速評(píng)FlashAnalysis(PleaseseeAPPENDIX1forEnglishsummary)投資建議：H股香港本地銀行的股價(jià)上升幅度落后于其他子板塊，我們認(rèn)為股價(jià)尚未反映與內(nèi)地通關(guān)及復(fù)常等積極因素，同時(shí)地產(chǎn)融資仍在邊際改善中，我們認(rèn)為香港本地銀行在信貸增長(zhǎng)及資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量改善方面有望持續(xù)發(fā)力。建議關(guān)注恒生銀行、中銀香港。H股中的招商銀行估值已經(jīng)在FY23PB1.2x左右，建議回調(diào)時(shí)再低吸。行情回顧：2023.1.9-1.29，覆蓋的H股銀行算術(shù)平均+5.0%，恒生指數(shù)+6.1%，跑輸1.1pct。漲幅前三包括招商銀行、匯豐銀行、中信銀行。覆蓋的34家A股銀行算術(shù)平均+1.1%，滬深300+5.0%，上證綜指+3.4%，分別跑輸3.9pc和2.3pct。漲幅前三名為招商銀行、無(wú)錫銀行和江陰銀行，跌幅前三名為成都銀行、常熟銀行和杭州銀行。其中股份行(+2.0%)和農(nóng)商行(2.4%)平均漲幅超過(guò)行業(yè)平均漲幅，國(guó)有大行(+0.2%)和城商行(+0.7%)，不及行業(yè)平均漲幅。南北向資金監(jiān)測(cè)：2023.1.9-1.29南向H股持股增加最多的是工商銀行、農(nóng)業(yè)銀行、中國(guó)銀行，持股減少最多的是建設(shè)銀行、中信銀行、郵儲(chǔ)銀行。上周北向A股持股增加最多的是農(nóng)業(yè)銀行、郵儲(chǔ)銀行、中國(guó)銀行，持股減少最多的是北京銀行、長(zhǎng)沙銀行和寧波銀行。信貸展望：我們重申1/9周報(bào)中的信貸展望，預(yù)計(jì)1月信貸投放量偏弱，1季度有望超預(yù)期。預(yù)計(jì)1月信貸偏弱。原因包括感染率對(duì)勞動(dòng)力供給進(jìn)而影響工程施工開工和企業(yè)融資提款，基數(shù)原因，春節(jié)提早，以及存在項(xiàng)目預(yù)支情況。這一點(diǎn)在對(duì)國(guó)有大行的調(diào)研中也得到了確認(rèn)。預(yù)計(jì)1季度信貸投放有望超預(yù)期。主要考慮到房地產(chǎn)融資利好以及刺激需求的政策不斷加碼出臺(tái)，以及感染恢復(fù)后的消費(fèi)復(fù)蘇疊加銀行機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)消費(fèi)貸的優(yōu)惠推廣。調(diào)研中我們獲悉，銀行對(duì)地產(chǎn)的融資總量確有改善，但依然聚焦優(yōu)質(zhì)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)融資和并購(gòu)項(xiàng)目，考察項(xiàng)目所處地理位置、銷售情況和建設(shè)情況。內(nèi)地宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況：消費(fèi)復(fù)蘇各線城市同比回暖，但難言修復(fù)至疫情前水平。商品房成交面積同比跌幅擴(kuò)大，土地成交面積和溢價(jià)率均繼續(xù)下降?；ㄏ嚓P(guān)指標(biāo)在節(jié)前也較弱，節(jié)后或有所回暖。量的方面而言，出口疲弱，進(jìn)口相對(duì)平穩(wěn)，進(jìn)出口運(yùn)價(jià)也都再度回落。香港宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況：香港與內(nèi)地通關(guān)，彭博調(diào)查顯示，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家上調(diào)對(duì)香港2023年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)至3.3%，去年11月份預(yù)測(cè)為2.7%。李家超稱目標(biāo)在2023年內(nèi)取消所有防疫限制，帶領(lǐng)香港邁向全面復(fù)常。香港2022年10-12月失業(yè)率回落0.2pct至3.5%，連續(xù)8個(gè)月下跌。財(cái)政司長(zhǎng)陳茂波指出有信心見到香港經(jīng)濟(jì)于Q2強(qiáng)勁反彈，訪港內(nèi)旅客會(huì)持續(xù)上升。資金面緊平衡：但市場(chǎng)利率依然小幅上行。央行的公開市場(chǎng)操作，以及稅期漸近尾聲，共同緩解了資金偏緊的局面。1.28-29節(jié)后凈回籠3480億。WIND數(shù)據(jù)顯示2月3日逆回購(gòu)到期量2.3萬(wàn)億。因此央行市場(chǎng)操作量的方面來(lái)看，預(yù)計(jì)處于緊平衡的狀態(tài)。價(jià)：1.9-29，1年期國(guó)債收益率上升5bp至2.15%，10年期國(guó)債收益率上升8bp至2.92%，10Y-1Y期限利差小幅擴(kuò)大。1月9日至今，銀行間質(zhì)押式回購(gòu)利率，7天期限下行9bp，其余期限(1天、14天、21天、1個(gè)月、3個(gè)月)均有上行。同業(yè)存單3個(gè)月和6個(gè)月期限利率變化不大。1年期利率上行5bp，其中農(nóng)商行上行10bp，股份行上行7bp，國(guó)有銀行上行6bp。231Jan202321.442.02.42.03.47.0-1.92.02.75.03.43.042.02.42.03.47.0-1.92.02.75.03.43.00.60.3周度行情回顧2023/1/92023/1/2922023/1/92023/1/292023/1/22023/1/6.72022/12/232022/12/32022/12/232022/12/30NameIndustrialandCommercialBankofChinaAgriculturalBankofChinaBankofChinaChinaConstructionBankBankofCommunicationsPostalSavingsBankofChinaChinaMerchantsBankChinaEverbrightBankCompanyChinaCiticBankCorporationHSBCHoldingsPLCStandardCharteredPLCBOCHongKong(Holdings)HangSengBankTheBankofEastAsia5.44.00.7 0.8 0.7 -0.6-0.2-0.6 - 0.9 0.8 2.52.09.53.71288.HK3988.HK0939.HK3328.HK1658.HK3968.HK6818.HK0998.HK0005.HK2888.HK2388.HK0011.HK0023.HK6.1HSI6.1HSI.HIHSIreturn2022/12/192022/12/262023/1/22023/1/9TickerName2022/12/232022/12/302023/1/62023/1/296013986012886019889IndustrialandCommercialBankofChinaLimitedAgriculturalBankofChinaLimitedBankofChinaLimitedChinaConstructionBankCorporation0.7601328BankofCommunications0.76013288000300.SH000001.SHPostalSavingsBankofChina8000300.SH000001.SHSOBsaverageCSI300SHComposite3.02.9601166SHComposite3.02.9601166IndustrialBankCo.,Ltd. -1.9-3.2-3.9 -3.2-3.2-3.9 4.7-3.7-3.2-3.9-4.000ChinaCiticBankCorporationLimited006018180.3ChinaEverbrightBank06018180.311.1-0.72.4Ping11.1-0.72.4601916000300.SH000001.SHChinaZheshang601916000300.SH000001.SHJSBsaverageCSI300SH1.02.71.01.80.6002141.5600919 9601833.20.90029488601187BankofNingboCo.,Ltd.BankofNanjingCo.,Ltd.BankofJiangsuCo.,Ltd.BankofShanghaiCo.,Ltd.BankofHangzhouCo.,Ltd.BankofChengduCo.,Ltd.BankofChangshaCo.,Ltd.BankofQingdaoCo.,Ltd.BankofXi'anCo.,Ltd.BankofSuzhouCo.,Ltd.XiamenBankCo.,LtdBankofChongqingCo.,Ltd2.2601665000300.2.2601665000300.SH000001.SH3.2CSI300SHCompositeWuxiRuralCommercialBankCo.,LtdJiangsuCSI300SHCompositeWuxiRuralCommercialBankCo.,LtdJiangsuJiangyinRuralCommercialBankCo.,Ltd.JiangsuChangshuRuralCommercialBankCo.,Ltd.JiangsuSuzhouRuralCommercialBankCo.,LtdJiangsuZhangjiagangRuralCommercialBankCo.,Lt6.1-2.600280780028392.00.31.01.56018252.4ShanghaiRuralCommercialBankCo.,Ltd.Ruralcommercialbanks331Jan20233南向資金er398HK288HK3988HK3328HK6818HKK3HK2888HK2388HK3968HK658HK998HK939HK北向資金ker601288CH601658CH601988CH601818CH600036CH601398CH000001CH600000CH601328CH601998CH601916CH600919CH601009CH601166CH601665CH002839CH601229CH002958CH601825CH601838CH601577CH601187CH002807CH600926CH601963CH600928CH002948CH002966CH601939CH002142CH601128CH601169CHICBC-HABC-HBANKOFCHINA-HBANKCOMM-HCEBBANK-HHOLDINGSPLHANGSENGBANKBANKEASTASIASTANDARDCHARTERBOCHONGKONGHOCMBANK-HPOSTALSAVINGS-HCITICBANK-HCCB-HAGRICULTURAL-ALSAVINGSABANKOFCHINA-ACHINAEVERBRIG-ACHINAMERCHBK-AINDCOMMBK-APINGANBANK-ASHANGPUDONG-ABANKOFCOMMUN-ACHINACITICBK-ACHINAZHESHANG-ABANKOFJIANGS-ABANKOFNANJIN-AINDUSTRIALBANK-AQILUBANKCOL-AJIANGSUZHANGJ-ABANKOFSHANGH-AQINGDAORURAL-ASHANGHAIRURAL-ABANKOFCHENGD-ABANKOFCHANGS-AXIAMENBANKCO-AJIANGSUJIANGY-ABANKOFHANGZH-ABANKOFCHONGQ-ABANKOFXI'AN-ABANKOFQINGDA-ABANKOFSUZHOU-ACHINACONSTBA-ABANKOFNINGBO-AJIANGSUCHANGS-ABANKOFBEIJING-AAmountofHKDmn)90,5146,5352,6803,2823,059107,820462018,4715,8340,318111,915Amountof(Rmbmn)7,7693,8914,8672,43964,3048,78419,9805,2165,5600681005,5443,12114,47907902,7309413,6058874222,04409222,22613,8419062,977ingin21,247,421,8125,842,589,0634,283,897,688671,226,2081,223,767,3541,898,238,1853,612,7233,026,21595,47066,961,786173,948,1441,084,385,1772,758,706,78021,987,248,489oldingin2,665,108,549798,101,3171,513,106,254788,080,3191,570,199,8312,031,684,5921,321,511,473709,666,5281,141,204,886210,838,998367,314,854738,032,258293,331,230807,340,47771,422,92580,966,965452,332,83755,448,863157,952,671252,156,057114,110,15148,894,02399,776,006153,917,46515,668,25261,75220,816,026117,080,387395,590,287416,917,122122,260,273697,891,683ofIssued24.47%9.00%5.12% 1%9.65%9.34%0.18%0.10%0.00%0.62%3.78%5.45%8.52%%ofIssued0.89%7.07%0.71%1.90%7.61%0.75%6.80%2.41%2.90%0.61%5.02%3.32%3.88%3.07%3.73%3.26%0.99%3.41%6.76%5.51%4.59%3.03%2.26%0.00%0.58%6.31%4.62%3.30%HKDmn)801900171322-1,965(Rmbmn)288892474264340-1-192gnge191,318,00085,552,00046,175,00017,376,0001,321,2861,154,355213,40020,400-2,100-6,227,000-6,801,032-8,161,845-12,303,137-388,646,201haregge112,117,27480,280,17654,228,45148,951,60648,171,14045,458,22339,427,39635,728,62633,414,24125,523,69723,163,64722,600,31814,670,15014,121,64911,931,31511,553,3899,991,5889,906,6357,254,3194,553,1944,418,9013,871,5873,686,4732,782,485565,7440-417,486-2,718,748-3,241,366-5,301,460-10,735,855-13,025,884infissued0.22%0.28%0.06%0.05%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%-0.06%-0.04%-0.08%einofissued0.04%0.11%0.03%0.12%0.23%0.02%0.20%0.12%0.09%0.07%0.14%0.15%0.14%0.07%0.26%0.53%0.07%0.18%0.08%0.12%0.11%0.15%0.17%0.05%0.03%0.00%-0.01%-0.07%-0.03%-0.08%-0.39%-0.06%(1/18/2023)4.26 .83 .964.89 56.8 9.9767.55 6.948.7 5.38 3.74.09(1/20/2023).92 4.9 3.22 41.05 4.3315.13 7.36 4.87 5.07 3.01 7.5210.6617.96 4.29 4.82 6.05 .97 5.9714.36 6.94 5.87 4.2313.28 7.08 3.51 3.48 7.87 5.6333.217.434.27(1/4/2023)4.13 .72 .91 4.68 .45 131.6 9.79 27.2546.15 5.13 3.565(1/6/2023).924.73 3.21 3.0838.384.3414.62 7.344.81 5.04 .92 7.5710.76 4.234.68 5.96 5.9415.13 6.86 5.834.0513.55 6.86 3.49 3.39 7.98 5.6732.637.634.284.04% 2%4.49%2.04%3.60%-2.74% 4%2.58%-1.28%5.53%4.87%5.06%0%0.00%3.59%0.31%0.65%6.96%-0.23%3.49%0.27%1.25%0.60%3.08%-0.66%-0.93%-0.77%1.42%2.99%1.51%2.41%0.51%-5.09%1.17%0.69%4.44%-1.99%3.21%0.57%2.65%-1.38%-0.71%1.78%-2.62%-0.23%431Jan20234APPENDIX1SummaryInvestmentadvice:TheriseinthesharepriceofH-shareHongKonglocalbankslaggedbehindothersub-sectors,webelievethatthesharepricehasnotyetreflectedthepositivefactorssuchasthereturntonormalcyinHongKongandthecustomsclearancewiththeMainland,whilepropertyfinancingisstillinmarginalimprovement,webelievethatHongKonglocalbanksareexpectedtocontinuetomakeeffortsincreditgrowthandassetqualityimprovement.WerecommendfocusingonHSB,BOCHK.ChinaMerchantsBankvaluationinH-shareisalreadyaroundFY23PB1.2x,wesuggesttobuyatlowpricewhenthepullback.MacroandIndustryReview:CreditOutlook:Wereiterateourcreditoutlookfromour1/9weeklyreport,expectingweakJanuaryloanissuance,with1Qtobeatexpectations.Mainlandmacroeconomicconditions:consumptionrecoveryinalltiercitiesreboundedYoY,butitishardtosaythatitisrepairedtopre-epidemiclevels.TheareaofcommercialhousingtransactionsfellatanexpandedrateYoY,andboththeareaoflandtransactionsandpremiumratecontinuedtodecline.Infrastructure-relatedindicatorswerealsoweakerbeforetheholidaysandmaypickupaftertheholidays.Intermsofvolume,exportsdatawereweak,importsdatawererelativelystable,andbothimportandexportfreightratesfellagain.HongKongmacroeconomicconditions:HongKongclearedcustomswiththeMainland,andeconomistsraisedtheirforecastforHongKong'seconomicgrowthto3.3%in2023,comparedwith2.7%forecastinNovemberlastyear,accordingtoBloombergsurvey.LeeKa-chiusaidthegoalistoremoveallanti-epidemicrestrictionswithin2023,leadingHongKongtomovetowardfullrestorationofnormalcy.HongKong'sunemploymentratefellback0.2pctto3.5%inOctober-December2022,downfor8consecutivemonths.FinancialSecretaryPaulChanpointsoutheisconfidenttoseeHongKongeconomyreboundingstronglyinQ2andinboundvisitorstoHongKongwillcontinuetorise.Fundingisintightbalance.Risk:Theeffectofthepolicyislessthanexpected.56下下m789