2022年12月信用債市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行報(bào)告：一級(jí)市場(chǎng)凈融資銳減二級(jí)市場(chǎng)利差整體走闊

免責(zé)聲明摘要摘要融資最多，凈融資額為億元和-453.61億元；國(guó)有企業(yè)和非國(guó)有企業(yè)凈融資分別為-5,326.10億元和-壓力均環(huán)比下降。到期收益率方面，12月份中短期票據(jù)和城投債二級(jí)市場(chǎng)到期收益率均上的中短期票企信用風(fēng)推高等級(jí)產(chǎn)業(yè)債信用利差有望率先企穩(wěn)。：5.《2022年9月利率債市場(chǎng)6.《2022年9月信用債市場(chǎng)一級(jí)市場(chǎng)凈融資銳一級(jí)市場(chǎng)凈融資銳減，二級(jí)市場(chǎng)利差整體走闊告esearchfecrcomcn責(zé)聲明Jan13th,2022TheThenetfinancingintheprimarymarketdeclinedsharply,andthesinthesecondarymarketgenerallywidened——December2022China'scorporatebondsmarketoperationreportAuthorCaoXiaojing,JianJiangpingIntermsoftheissuanceofChina’scorporatebonds,atotalof702.997billionyuanofcorporatebondswereissuedinDecember,andtheissuancescaledecreasedmonth-on-month.Amongthem,theshort-termfinancingbills,corporatebondsyuanrespectively.Therewere194corporatebondscancelledorpostponedinthismonth,involvinganamountof120.098billionyuan.rwasbillionyuanwhichshranktoitslowestlevelsince2015.Amongthe10keyindustries,theutilitiesindustryhasachievedthemostnetfinancing,withanetfinancingamountof48.264billionyuan.ThenetfinancingofAAA,AA+andAAlevelentitieswas-488.236billionnrespectivelyThenetfinancingofstateownedenterprisesandnonstateownedenterpriseswas-532.610billionyuanand-79.890billionyuanrespectively.ThenetfinancingofLocalGovernmentnancingVehicleLGFVbondsandnonLGFVbondswasbillionyuanandbillionyuanrespectivelyIntermsofmaturitypressure,asoftheendofDecember,4,297.596billionyuanofChina’scorporatebondswillmatureinthenextsixmonths,andthematuritypressuremigrationcoefficientwas0.79,down0.11fromtheendofpreviousmonth.Fromtheperspectiveofindustries,thematuritypressureofmostkeyindustriesdecreasedmonth-on-month.Fromtheandnonstateownedcompaniesbondsbothdecreasedmonth-on-month.FromtheperspectiveofLGFVbondsandnon-LGFVbonds,thematuritypressureofLGFVbondsandnon-LGFVbondsbothdecreasedmonth-on-month.bothincreasedinDecember.Amongthem,theyieldtomaturityof3-yearshort-termbillshasrisensignificantlymorethanthatof5-yearshort-termbills.cemberCreditspreadsofLGFVbondswithdifferentratingswidened,andthecreditspreadsofAAA,AA+andAALGFVbondsincreasedby43.89BP,70.42BPand102.96BPrespectively,thecreditspreadofAALGFVbondshasrisenmore,whichmayindicatethatthecreditriskdifferentiationoflow-andmedium-qualifiedLGFVbondshasincreased.ThepercentilesofthecreditspreadsofLGFVaveallincreasedsignificantlyAAAAAandAALGFVbondspreadsareathistoriclevelsof92%,98%and84%since2015respectively.Jan13th,2022InDecember,theepidemicpreventionandcontrolpolicyunderwentafundamentalchange,andthemarket'sexpectationforfutureeconomicrecoveryhasincreased.Intermsofrealestatebonds,althoughthe"threearrows"policyhasbeenlementedoneafteranothertheliquidityofsomehighqualityrealestateenterpriseshasbeensubstantiallyeasedbutthetotalsaleofcommercializedbuildingshasnotyetstabilized,thecreditrisksofweaklyqualifiedrealestateenterprisesneedtocontinuetopayattentionto.IntermsofLGFVbonds,ZunyiBridgeandRoad’sdebtrestructuringandreplacementonDecember30hasattractedwidespreadattentioninthemarket.Underthepolicytoneof“reducingthestockandcontrollingtheincrease”oflocalgovernmentdebt,itisnecessarytocontinuetopayattentiontotheriskofthetailLGFVs.Lookingforward,asthemarketstabilizes,thescaleofissuanceintheprimarymarketisexpectedtoincreaserapidlyduetothecollectivecancellationorpostponementofissuanceofpreviousbonds,andthecreditspreadsofhigh-gradeindustrialbondsareexpectedtotaketheleadinstabilizing. (一)一級(jí)市場(chǎng) 2 (二)二級(jí)市場(chǎng) 9 (三)信用債市場(chǎng)特別關(guān)注 14 /1701040104071001040710010407100104071001040710010407100104071001040710場(chǎng)運(yùn)行(一)一級(jí)市場(chǎng)平。00000000,000億元(見(jiàn)表1)。(億元)(億元)(億元)(億元)前兌付量(億元)(億元)量(億元)50司債6567.87期融資券720533059700.0745.2017003.479.7001.00000500-160.48-144.20-261.50003.479.7001.00000500-160.48-144.20-261.50,102.572.AAA級(jí)主體凈融資大幅回落，國(guó)有企業(yè)融資大幅凈流出(1)多數(shù)行業(yè)凈融資額為負(fù)且規(guī)模環(huán)比下降分行業(yè)來(lái)看，本文從申萬(wàn)行業(yè)中選取10個(gè)重點(diǎn)行業(yè)統(tǒng)計(jì)信用債凈融資情況(見(jiàn)圖2)。12月份僅公用事業(yè)行82.64,269.72建筑裝飾公用事業(yè)交通運(yùn)輸商貿(mào)零售鋼鐵355.00石化醫(yī)藥生物食品飲料續(xù)產(chǎn)公用事業(yè)炭石化食品飲料75518300//17產(chǎn)公用事業(yè)炭石化食品飲料008900075.89769.72402.5748205055.007000(2)AAA級(jí)主體凈融資大幅回落3,815.34億元；AA+級(jí)主體凈融資為-728.74億元，較上月減少656.68億元；AA級(jí)主體信用債凈融資為-453.61億元，較上月減少253.42億元；AA-級(jí)主體信用債凈融資持續(xù)為負(fù)。AAAA計(jì)6.73.439758.92831.645.697.69102.793282.367461510.3707080910111201020304050607080910111202030405060708091011120708091011120102030405060708091011120203040506070809101112A0000000000000000000000(3)國(guó)有企業(yè)融資大幅凈流出降。000000000000000000000000070708091011120102030405060708091011120203040506070708091011120102030405060708091011120203040506070809101112(4)城投債凈融資環(huán)比下降，非城投債融資大幅凈流出凈融資為-5,053.85億元，較上00000000000000000000000000000000000000000017000,000000,000003.信用債總體到期壓力環(huán)比下降元信60,00054,507.397,237.8742,975.96過(guò)去6個(gè)月ATAE未來(lái)6個(gè)月到期總量上月末未來(lái)6個(gè)月到期總量來(lái)6個(gè)月信用債到期總量較上月末水平下降4,261.91億元，到期壓力遷移(1)大部分重點(diǎn)行業(yè)信用債到期壓力環(huán)比下降平。交通運(yùn)輸、商貿(mào)零售、煤炭、石油石化、醫(yī)藥生物、食品飲料等行業(yè)到期壓E49,797.3240,125.4649,797.3240,125.4600000ATAE參考線(遷移系數(shù)=1)個(gè)月到期總量到期壓力遷移系數(shù)(右軸)上月末到期壓力遷移系數(shù)(右軸)房地產(chǎn)建筑裝飾公用事業(yè)交通運(yùn)輸商貿(mào)零售鋼鐵煤炭石油石化醫(yī)藥生物食品飲料Wind，遠(yuǎn)東資信整理(2)國(guó)有企業(yè)與非國(guó)有企業(yè)信用債到期壓力均環(huán)比下降000,00000ATAE參考線(遷移系數(shù)=1)上月末到期壓力遷移系數(shù)(右軸)個(gè)月到期總量到期壓力遷移系數(shù)(右軸),710.070.5017(3)城投債與非城投債到期壓力均環(huán)比下降,000000000TAE參考線(遷移系數(shù)=1)上月末到期壓力遷移系數(shù)(右軸)個(gè)月到期總量到期壓力遷移系數(shù)(右軸)8.0816.06(二)二級(jí)市場(chǎng)0102030405060708091011120102030405060701020304050607080910111201020304050607080910111201020304050607080910111201020304-05060708091011120102030405060708-09101112企業(yè)債(億元)公司債(億元)中期票據(jù)(億元)短期融資券(億元)定向工具(億元)000,000002.中短期票據(jù)和城投債到期收益率均上行BPBPAAAA8AAA7654320102010203040506070809101112010203-04-0506070809101112010203040506070809101112不同期限與評(píng)級(jí)的城投債到期收益率均上行，走勢(shì)先升后降(見(jiàn)圖13)。具體A3.重點(diǎn)行業(yè)債券信用利差整體走闊，不同評(píng)級(jí)城投債信用利差均上行(1)重點(diǎn)行業(yè)債券信用利差整體走闊，AA+地產(chǎn)債上行超100BP興業(yè)研究提供的10個(gè)重點(diǎn)行業(yè)不同信用級(jí)別產(chǎn)業(yè)債信用利差顯示，12月份重點(diǎn)行業(yè)債券信用利差整體走闊。P藥生物行業(yè)AAA級(jí)債項(xiàng)外，12月末各行業(yè)評(píng)級(jí)債券信用利差均在歷史較高水平(見(jiàn)圖15)。房地產(chǎn)建筑裝飾電力交通運(yùn)輸商業(yè)貿(mào)易鋼鐵煤炭化工醫(yī)藥生物食品飲料PAAAAAAA%%%房地產(chǎn)建筑裝飾電力交通運(yùn)輸商業(yè)貿(mào)易鋼鐵煤炭化工醫(yī)藥生物食品飲料。(2)不同評(píng)級(jí)城投債信用利差均上行，AA+城投債接近歷史峰值A(chǔ)度最大(見(jiàn)圖16)。.89全體城投債