奧迪市場部9月市場形勢分析與2013年全年預(yù)測

9月份豪華車市場分析及2013年預(yù)測

MarketsituationAnalysisinSepandFCfor2013奧迪市場部產(chǎn)品營銷部ProductMarketingAudiMarketingDepartment2013.10.159月份豪華車市場分析MarketsituationAnalysisinSep.2013年預(yù)測FCfor2013奧迪潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Audirisksfacing*EstimateddatafromDec,2011-Sep,2013forMB**9月份豪華車市場增速為25%，高于整體市場增速；累計(jì)增長16%，仍低于整體市場TheG.R.ofPMis25%inSephigherthanthatofTM.TheYTDgrowthrateofPMis16%,stilllowerthanthatofTM*EstimateddatafromDec,2011-Sep,2013forMBTotalmarket,Oct2012-Sep2013vs.YoY[in1,000units]PremiumMarket,Oct2012-Sep2013vs.YoY[in1,000units]AugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan,13DecNovOctSep17%Jan-Sep,1311,297Jan-Sep,129,669AugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan,13DecNovOctSep16%Jan-Sep,131,007Jan-Sep,1220%27%30%12%12%6%-16%25%13%17%15%25%VolumeGrowthRateVolume15%15%14%15%16%13%-1%38%15%14%12%24%GrowthRate*

剔除低基數(shù)影響：車型換代和釣魚島事件影響銷量偏低7kExceptbaseinfluence:volumelost7kduetomodelrunoutanddiaoyuislandsaffects剔除去年低基數(shù)因素，實(shí)際增速預(yù)計(jì)17%Exceptlowerbaseinlastyear,theG.R.ofPMshouldbe17%+17%+25%Sep,12ReasonableFCSep,13Sep,129月份豪華車市場實(shí)際增速測算_剔除去年低基數(shù)G.RFCofPMinSep_RemovinglowbaseJunMayAprNovOctDecSepAugJulFebMarJan_12Runoutmodelsin2012:3Sr/BClass:3000Diaoyuislandsaffects:LexusandInfiniti:40009月份豪華車市場增量主要來自B-Lim/B-SUV兩個(gè)細(xì)分市場

TheincreasewasprimarilyfromB-Lim/B-SUV1-9月份，豪華車市場增量主要來自C-Lim/B-SUV/A-SUV/B-Lim四個(gè)細(xì)分市場，減量主要來自D-Lim以及其他小的FBU細(xì)分市場/TheincreasewasprimarilyfromC-Lim/B-SUV/A-SUV/B-Lim,whilethelostwasmainlyfromD-LimandothersmallFBUsegment

*EstimateddatafromDec,2011-Sep,2013forMB9月份奧迪銷量和增速均領(lǐng)先競爭對手InSepAudiisleadingthemarketbothinvolumeandgrowthrate*20122013Deliveriestocustomers:Audi,BMW,Mercedes,2012-Sep2013[inunits]*EstimateddatafromDec,2011–Sep,2013forMBDecFebJan,13NovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJanAugJulJunMayAprMarSepTotal:265,394Total:151,000+60,592(+21%)+45,594(+21%)+11,093(+8%)Total:355,5449月份，各品牌銷量季節(jié)性回升。相比較寶馬、奔馳，奧迪銷量依然處于領(lǐng)先地位/

SalesroseasexpectedduetoseasonalityinSep,andAudiisstillleadinginpremiumbrandcomparedtoBMWandMBSupplyincreaseProduction

capacity

increaseX3salesvolume(2012-)Aug2,496Jul1,961JunMayApr2,472MarFebJanDecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayApr1,216MarFeb1,387Jan1,035SepX3銷量(2012.1-2013.9)寶馬9月3系和5系銷量穩(wěn)定，X3銷量達(dá)新高，進(jìn)口車進(jìn)一步恢復(fù)GoodperformanceforBMW3Sr.&5Sr.,topsalesforX3andfurtherrecoveryforFBUmodelsinSepSupplyincreaseSep,13Sep,12ChangeJan-Sep,13Jan-Sep,12ChangeBMW11,6932,163-22%11,73615,290-23%BMWX13,5385,235-32%26,22427,204-4%BMW36,3522,062208%50,48129,47571%BMW3C/C243295-18%2,2073,686-40%BMW3GT2840n/a1,0260n/aBMWX33,1141,449115%22,26811,052101%BMWZ472185-61%1,2071,815-33%BMW5Touring766615%539710-24%BMW5GT71262015%6,4177,067-9%BMW510,60410,0705%96,25377,82524%BMWX52,6091,59464%18,53215,14722%BMWX61,04587519%7,4938,827-15%BMW614210535%1,2421,01422%BMW72,5802,28113%19,76920,688-4%Total33,06427,00022%265,394219,80021%Y2013PAMYProduction

capacity

increase銷量Salesvolume*EstimateddataforMBToachievesalestarget2013Averagevolume2012*DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan奔馳9月份銷量回升，但完成全年目標(biāo)仍面臨較大壓力MBvolumeincreasedinSep,butfacingpressuretofinishwholeyeartarget*+21%+21%+8%奧迪1-9月市場表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于競爭對手AudiPerformancebetterthancompetitorsfromJantoSep26%15%增長率G.R-17%5%2013年度目標(biāo)Target（’000）481360(ambi.400）210(ambi.220)NA累計(jì)完成率Achievingrate74%74%(66%)72%(69%)-35%市場份額MS競爭形勢/CompetitiveSituation–中國1-9月份/ChinaJan-Sep*EstimateddatafromDec,2011-Sep,2013forMB*Q5A4LA6LCKDMix(83%)CLim.BLim.BSUVNO.1NO.1NO.142%43%49%Jan-Sep2013-4.0+0.54%ofpremiumsegmentA8LQ7A5Cou/CabA5SBTTQ3FBUMix(17%)DLim.CSUVBCou/CabBSportbackBSportASUVNO.3NO.5NO.1NO.1NO.1NO.220%12%47%30%39%83%+2.2-3.5+0.2+10.8Othersub-seg.NoProductR8D-Cou/RoadsterNO.187%A1A0HBNO.239%A7CSportbackNO.324%+37.2(AboveRMB2,000,000)A3AHBNO.412%-3.7A4allroadBKombiNO.316%+11+24.8-4.3-3.9+2.6-17.3

Jan-Sep,13Jan-Sep,12Diff.A-HB

AudiA3

12%16%-3.7BMW1sr

27%36%-8.2MBA-Class

9%7%1.2MBB-Class

28%9%18.8B-Lim.

Jan-Sep,13Jan-Sep,12Diff.AudiA4L

49%54%-4.3BMW3Lim

28%21%7.0MBC-Class

15%16%-1.7VolvoS60

6%5%1.2B-SUVJan-Sep,13Jan-Sep,12Diff.AUDIQ543%47%-4.0BMWX312%8%4.6MBGLK15%14%1.8VolvoXC6010%8%2.0C-SUV

Jan-Sep,13Jan-Sep,12Diff.AudiQ7

12%16%-3.5BMWX5

18%15%2.5MBML

16%12%4.2VolvoXC90

2%3%-0.8奧迪份額主要損失在B-Lim/B-SUV/C-SUVAudilostmarketsharemainlyinB-Lim/B-SUV/C-SUV較大折扣仍是驅(qū)動(dòng)豪華車市場增長的主要因素，奧迪折扣進(jìn)一步加大Growthinpremiummarketisdrivenbyheavydiscounts,discountlargerofAudiDiscountratedevelopment,Oct2012-Sep2013[in%]TotalmarketpremiummarketTotalvs.premiummarketSource:ASDtransactionpricereportAudi,BMW,MercedesJan_13Jan_139月份豪華車市場分析MarketsituationAnalysisinSep.2013年預(yù)測FCfor2013奧迪潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Audirisksfacing20112010200920089.62007200620132012200520042003200220012013Target7.5Lowestgrowthinyears2013年下半年，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)存在很多不確定因素TherearemanyuncertaintiesforChineseeconomyinthesecondhalfof2013Aug2013Jan,2012Jul,2011Jan,2011Jan2013GDP,2000-2013[in%]CPI,Jan2011-Aug2013[in%]ConsumerConfidenceIndex,Mar2011-Aug2013[in%]ShanghaiStockIndexSource:NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina,BankofChinaJul2013Jul2012Jan2012Jul2011Jan2013GDPGrowthRateFC(%)_SICAgencyforecaston2013GDPofChina2013年全年GDP增速預(yù)計(jì)7.5%，但個(gè)別機(jī)構(gòu)較上一版調(diào)高預(yù)測/2013GDPGRforecastswillbe7.5%,butmanyinstitutionsriseuptheirforecastversuslastversion2013AgencyFCTime2013FCFCTime2013FCChangeCITICSecurities2013.047.82013.097.5CICC2013.067.42013.097.6Citigroup2013.077.42013.107.6CASS2012.128.22013.048.0HSBC2013.067.42013.107.7TheWorldBank2013.048.02013.068.0

—IMF2013.057.752013.077.7GovernmentTarget:7.5%考慮日系品牌和自主品牌的復(fù)蘇，結(jié)合目前市場發(fā)展?fàn)顩r，預(yù)測整體市場全年增長15%左右ConsideringtheslowlyrecoveryofJapaneseanddomesticbrands,andcurrentmarketdevelopment,thetotalmarketgrowthisexpectedtobe15%in2013季度增速Q(mào)uarterlygrowthrate17%15%18%10%15,500,+15%13,503(2012)

2013年整體市場月度趨勢預(yù)測_（9+3）

Totalmarketmonthlytrendin2013（9+3）Unit:1,000

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal20121,0879801,1481,0661,0801,0659941,0791,1691,1391,2841,41013,5032013FAWVWFC1,5039681,2991,2391,2461,2151,1471,2361,4441,2701,4101,52315,500Diff2013/201238%-1%13%16%15%14%15.4%15%24%11%10%8%15%Workingdays20132217212122192322211921222502013年豪華車市場預(yù)測/PremiumMarketforecast2013根據(jù)目前中國經(jīng)濟(jì)、政策及競爭環(huán)境因素，豪華車需求并未發(fā)生顯著變化/Baseoncurrenteconomy,policyandcompetitionsituation,thepremiumcardemandisnotobviouschangeFCmonthlygrowthratevs.2012[in%]1380(9+3)15500(9+3)G.R.FCPre.SegG.R.FCTotalMKT+17%2013FC1,38020121,1772013FC_totalMKTvs.pre.MKTTotalMarketPremiumMarket+15%2013FC*15,500201213,503*15500(9+3.2013)FAWVW*15400(9+3.2013)VGC1,380,000+17%1,176,858(2012)

季度增速2013年豪華車市場月度趨勢預(yù)測_（9+3）

Premiummarketmonthlytrendin2013（9+3）4%18%22%24%基于目前市場發(fā)展?fàn)顩r，考慮經(jīng)濟(jì)回升趨勢較預(yù)期弱，需求尚未發(fā)生顯著變化，2013年全年預(yù)計(jì)1,380k/Baseoncurrentmarketsituation,aswellasconsideringslowlyrecoveryeconomynotreachingourexpectation

andnoobviouschangeindemand,thevolumeof2013willbe1,380k.

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal201284,80296,092103,03396,103102,07496,02992,53898,420102,81293,737104,073107,1451,176,8582013_1,380,000106,09280,444109,116107,670114,725124,691117,547118,402128,631115,000127,000130,6821,380,000Diff.2013/201225%-16%6%12%12%30%27%20%25%23%22%22%17%Workingdays20132217212122192322211921222509月份豪華車市場分析MarketsituationAnalysisinSep.2013年預(yù)測FCfor2013奧迪潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)AudirisksfacingAug-13Sep-13A4L-13.8%-13.6%Q5-5.7%-5.6%A6L-13.5%-13.5%Q3-5.1%-5.9%CKDSubtotal-10.7%-10.8%A1-19.3%-18.5%A3SB-18.4%-18.6%

Q3-5.4%-6.1%TT-18.4%-17.4%A4AR-11.6%-13.7%

A5SB-13.4%-13.6%A5CP-13.4%-14.2%A5CA-13.9%-13.9%

Q5-7.9%-7.6%

A7-16.0%-15.4%

Q7-11.7%-12.1%

A8-17.4%-17.9%R8-10.5%-11.3%

FBUSubtotal-14.3%-15.0%AUDITOTAL-11.3%-11.5%Aug-13Sep-133series-11.2%-11.4%

5series-11.0%-10.3%X1-7.0%-8.1%CKDSubtotal-10.7%-10.4%

1series-13.5%-14.3%

1CP/CA-11.5%-11.6%X1-5.9%-7.3%Z4-7.2%-8.2%3seriestouring

-1.3%3series-9.9%-10.0%3seriesGT0.0%-1.3%3series

CP-18.7%-19.6%3series

CA-18.9%-19.7%M3CP/CA-19.5%-19.7%X3-0.9%-1.4%

5series-8.3%-8.9%5seriesGT-15.2%-7.1%5seriestouring-13.2%-14.7%

X5-14.5%-15.1%X6-14.7%-15.6%6CP/CA-13.8%-17.2%MX5/X6-21.5%-22.0%7series-20.7%-20.7%

FBUSubtotal-11.8%-11.5%BMWTOTAL-11.2%-10.9%Aug-13Sep-13CClass-22.6%-21.6%GLK-8.6%-9.0%EClass-18.2%-17.9%

CKDSubtotal-16.5%-15.5%

AClass-5.7%-6.8%BClass-16.9%-16.3%

SLK-15.2%-15.2%CAdvant-17.5%-18.1%

CCP-10.6