如何促進(jìn)國際支付體系的現(xiàn)代化

如何促進(jìn)國際支付體系的現(xiàn)代化國際貨幣體系的規(guī)則、機(jī)制和制度體系已經(jīng)發(fā)展了幾十年。為了繼續(xù)促進(jìn)世界各地的金融穩(wěn)定和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，它必須在一個快速變化的世界中繼續(xù)發(fā)展和適應(yīng)。國際貨幣體系的基礎(chǔ)是國際支付體系。這些是金融的“公路、鐵路、橋梁和隧道”，允許貨幣交換，資本在國家之間流動。該系統(tǒng)包括代理行之間的聯(lián)系；SWIFT等信息系統(tǒng)；轉(zhuǎn)賬業(yè)務(wù)和信用卡網(wǎng)絡(luò)；以及外匯市場，以及央行之間的安排。顯然，這種國際支付體系并不完美?？缇持Ц栋嘿F、緩慢、不透明，最需要的人無法獲得。還有一個更大的挑戰(zhàn)：國際支付系統(tǒng)也面臨著日益嚴(yán)重的割裂風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。各國需要共同努力，建設(shè)新的國際支付體系——使用公共數(shù)字平臺來連接支付系統(tǒng)。這將使國際支付更高效、更安全、更具包容性。至關(guān)重要的是，它將減少割裂的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。我們必須從三個方面來思考：首先，必須使用最先進(jìn)的設(shè)備，特別是新技術(shù)建設(shè)公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，以促進(jìn)通信、監(jiān)管合規(guī)、支付提供商之間的競爭，以及最終的跨境交易結(jié)算。第二，隨著支付效率的提高，資本流動也將繼續(xù)演變。資金流量整體增長，同時(shí)，效率的提高可能會帶來風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：從更高的金融市場蔓延和估值效應(yīng)，到突然的資本流動逆轉(zhuǎn)，貨幣替代的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)上升。我們呼吁在這一領(lǐng)域進(jìn)行全面和協(xié)調(diào)的全球監(jiān)管，還需要更好的數(shù)據(jù)和技術(shù)來自動檢測資本流動中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和違規(guī)行為。第三，依靠團(tuán)隊(duì)和精心排練的反應(yīng)來處理不可預(yù)見的情況，對于使國際支付系統(tǒng)現(xiàn)代化和減輕割裂化至關(guān)重要。在治理方面，各國最終將做出決定，國際組織，如國際貨幣基金組織、國際清算銀行和金融穩(wěn)定委員會，可以發(fā)揮重要作用。作者

|KristalinaGeorgieva，IMF總裁英文原文如下：Confronting

Fragmentation:HowtoModernizetheInternationalPaymentSystemByKristalinaGeorgieva,IMFManagingDirectorAsPreparedforDeliveryMay10,2022IntroductionGoodafternoon.IwouldliketothankGovernorJordanandtheSwissNationalBankforco-hostingourHigh-LevelConferencehereinZurich.Ourdiscussionstoday—atthe10th

editionofthisconference—haverightlyfocusedonakeyquestion:howtosecureastable,efficient,andinclusive

internationalmonetarysystem

thatisfitforthedigitalage.Thissystemofrules,mechanisms,andinstitutionsthatgovernmonetaryarrangementsandcapitalflowsbetweencountrieshasdevelopedoverdecades.Andtocontinuepromotingfinancialstabilityandeconomicdevelopment

everywhere,itmustcontinuetoevolveandadaptinarapidlychangingworld.JustlookattheimpressivenetworkofSwissroadsandrailways,withbridgesandtunnels,engineeredtocopewiththediverse,andoftenchallengingterrain.So,too,mustweensurethattheinternationalmonetarysystemisengineeredtocopewiththechangingglobaleconomiclandscape.Aswelooktoadigitalfuture,thesystemalsoneedstowithstandthe

growingforcesoffragmentation.TheseforceshavebecomestrongerasaconsequenceofRussia’sinvasionofUkraine.Ithascausednotonlytremendoushumansuffering,butalsoaglobaleconomicshockandasharpincreaseintheriskofa‘newColdWar.’Aworldthatcouldfragmentinto‘economicblocs’,creatingobstaclestothecross-borderflowofcapital,goods,services,ideas,andtechnologies.Thesearetheverydriversof

integration

thathaveboostedproductivityandlivingstandards,triplingtheworldeconomyandlifting

1.3billion

peopleoutofextremepovertyoverthepastthreedecades.So,thecostof

disintegration

wouldbeenormous—andthemostvulnerablepeopleandcountrieswouldbemostaffected.Facedwiththeserisks,wecaneithersurrendertotrendsthatwillmaketheworldpoorerandlessstable.Orwecanworkevenhardertoseekpathwaysto

preventthefragmentation

oftheinternationalmonetarysystem—justaswemustworktogethertoconfrontglobalthreatssuchasclimatechange.Wemustdesignand

build

theinfrastructurethatfacilitatesfurtherintegration.Thatincludes

steppingup

ourworkon

cross-borderpayments.Specifically,todayIwouldliketofocuson

developinganew

publicinfrastructure

toconnectandregulatevariouspaymentsystems,tocounterfragmentationoftheinternationalmonetarysystem.Itwouldbeanewwayofconnectingpeople,markets,andeconomiesinthedigitalworld.TheInternationalPaymentSystemWhatdoImeanbythat?Wemustlookunderneaththeinternationalmonetarysystem—toitsfoundations—whatIwouldcallthe

international

payment

system.Thesearethefinancial‘roads,railways,bridges,andtunnels’thatallowcurrenciestobeexchangedandcapitaltoflowbetweencountries.Thatsystemincludeslinksbetweencorrespondentbanks;messagingsystemssuchasSwift;moneytransferbusinessesandcreditcardnetworks;aswellasforeignexchangemarkets,andarrangementsbetweencentralbanks.Clearly,thisinternationalpaymentsystemisnotperfect.Cross-borderpaymentsareexpensive,slow,opaque,andnotavailabletomanyofthosewhoneedthemmost.Why?Becausemanyofthe‘roads’leadtonowhere,the‘railways’workondifferentgauges,andthe‘tunnels’arenotwelllit.Wherethesenetworksarenot

interoperable,intermediarieswillbuildconnectionsandtaketheircut.Agoodexampleisremittances.Theaveragecostofatransferis

6.3percent.Whichmeansthatsome

$45billion

peryear

aredivertedintothehandsofintermediariesandawayfromultimatebeneficiaries—includingmillionsoflower-incomehouseholds.[i]Butthereisanevengreaterchallenge:

theinternationalpaymentsystemalsofacesthegrowingriskof

fragmentation

thatImentionedearlier.Someare

structural

risks:privatedigitalmoneyprovidersarepromisingcheapcross-borderpayments,butoftenwithintheirclosednetworkofusers.Andthereare

geopolitical

risks:somecountriesmayconsiderdevelopingparallel,disjointedpaymentsystemstomitigatetheriskofpotentialeconomicsanctions.These

‘paymentblocs’

wouldonlyworsentheimpactofbroader‘economicblocs’—creatingnewinefficienciesandimposingnewcosts.Thiswouldharmproductivityandlivingstandardsin

all

countries.Wecandobetter.Wemustdobetter—andfast.So,mymainmessagetodayisthis:countriesneedtoworktogethertobuildnew‘roads,railways,bridges,andtunnels’—using

publicdigitalplatforms

toconnectpaymentsystems.Thiswouldmakeinternationalpaymentsmoreefficient,safer,andmoreinclusive.Crucially,itwouldreducetheriskoffragmentation.Thatisatallorder,butnotaninsurmountableone.Scalingthismountainiswellworthit.Andforthat,ourSwissfriendsagaincanbeourguides—withtheirhistoryofcooperationand,quiteliterally,theirmountaineeringexpertise.Indeed,

wemustthinklikeamountaineer

inthreeways:usestate-of-the-artequipment,adapttotheexistingterrain,andrelyonourteam.ModernizingtheInternationalPaymentSystem(a)UseState-of-the-artEquipmentFirst,wemustusestate-of-the-artequipment,especiallynewtechnologies.Inourdiscussionstoday,weheardthatsendingmoneyacrossborderscanbenearlyinstantaneousandcostless.That’sakeytakeawayfromseveralpilotsrunbythe

BISInnovationHub

inpartnershipwithmanycentralbanksrepresentedheretoday,includingtheSwissNationalBank.Acentralcomponentofthepilotsis

publicinfrastructure.Thisinvolves

digitalplatforms

thatfacilitatecommunication,regulatorycompliance,competitionamongpaymentproviders,and—eventually—settlementoftransactionsacrossborders.Letmegiveyouanexample:mybankinWashingtonmightexchangemytendollarsforadigitaltoken—whichisthentransferredviaaplatformtoaSwisspaymentproviderwhocreditsthewalletofmyfriendinZurich.Thisistheequivalentofsendingaten-dollarbillviamail—butatmaximumspeedandsafety,andminimalcost.Clearlythese

newpublicplatformswillcontinuetoevolve.We’veheardfromemerginganddevelopingcountriesthatthereisakeeninterestinextendingservicesbeyondjustpayments.Couldtheexchangeofonecurrencyintoanotherbeavailableontheplatform?Couldlessliquidcurrencypairsfindmorewillingcounterparts?Inshort,paymentplatformscouldbecomemuchmoreusefultoawiderrangeofusers.Thispotentialevolutionwillbedrivenbytheabilityto

programtheplatform.Forinstance,asmallbusinessmighthedgeforeignexchangeriskrelatedtoafuturepayment.Orafinancialfirmmightautomateitsbidsinaforeignexchangeauctionrunontheplatform.Thisopensthedoortoprivate-sectorinnovation,competition,andenhancedfunctionalityontheplatform.Anditextendsthenotionofthepublicgood:fromensuringsettlementfinality,toofferingastandardprogramminginterface—asharedlanguagetoaccessandautomateservicesontheplatform.

Thatmountaintopmaybedistant,butit’sworthexploring.So,too,istheideaofaplatformthatconnects

variousformsofmoneycountrieswilluseandlegallysupport.Thatincludescommercialbankdeposits,butpotentiallyalsocentralbankdigitalcurrencies,andevensomestablecoinarrangements—iftheyarewell-designedandregulated.Suchaplatformisespeciallyimportantforeconomieswithlessadvancedpaymentsystems.Byembracingdiverseformsofmoney,wecanmakepaymentsworkfor

all

people,in

all

countries.Butweneedmorethanjustgreatequipment.(b)AdapttotheTerrainWhichbringsmetomysecondpoint:justlikegoodmountaineers,wemustadapttotheterrain.

Thismeansbuildingplatformsthatallowcountriestocontinuepursuingtheirpolicyobjectives—especiallywhenitcomestocapitalflows.AsIsaidatthebeginning,theinternationalpaymentsystemhasadirectbearingontheinternationalmonetarysystem.So,aspaymentsbecomemoreefficient,capitalflowswillalsocontinuetoevolve.Wemayseeanoverallincreaseinflows.Thiscouldboostproductiveinvestmentandintegratemarkets—andwemaysee

more

flowstolow-incomecountries,orsectorsthathavebenefitedlessinthepast.Atthesametime,greaterefficiency

couldbringrisks:fromhigherfinancialmarketcontagionandvaluationeffects,tosuddencapitalflowreversals.Theseareespeciallyharmfulfordevelopingcountrieswithhighexternalfinancingneeds.Tomitigatethesevulnerabilities,countriesarestrivingtotaketherightfiscal,monetary,structural,andlegalmeasures.Andinsomecases,theyuse

capitalflowmanagementmeasures

toslowdowncapitalflows.HelpingcountriesrespondwithagilityisakeyreasonwhywerecentlyupdatedtheIMF’s

institutionalview

onthistopic.Currencysubstitutionisanotherrisk—that’sincountrieswherehouseholdsandfirmsprefertouseaforeigncurrencyfortransactionsandsavings.Whenthedesiredcurrencybecomesdigital—andthereforeeasiertostoreonaphonethanunderamattress—theriskofcurrencysubstitutionjumps.So,aspaymentsbecomemoreefficient,somecountriesmayhavetothrowsandinthegears—intheformofcapitalflowmanagementmeasures—toprotectthemselvesagainstcurrencysubstitutionandtocreatebreathingspacetostrengthentheirmonetaryframeworksandotherpolicies.Here,too,thereisarisk:thinkofhow

cryptoassets

mightbeusedtocircumventcapitalflowmanagementmeasures,underminingthestabilityofdomesticeconomiesandtheglobalsystem.NewIMFresearch—publishedtoday—clearlyshowsthatrisk.Andthatiswhywearecallingforcomprehensiveandcoordinatedglobalregulationinthisarea.Wealsoneedbetterdataandtechnologies—suchas‘regtech’and‘suptech’—toautomaticallydetectrisksandirregularitiesincapitalflows.Ibelievethata

newpublicinfrastructure

ofdigitalpaymentplatformscouldenablecountriestoimplementtheseandothermeasuresmoreefficiently.Fromtheoutset,theseplatformscanbecalibratedtocountry-specificneedsandpolicyobjectives—andtheymustincludeappropriateriskmitigationmeasures.Thisishowwecannavigatetheevolvingpolicyterraininnewandbetterways.(c)RelyonYourTeamMythirdpointisthatmountaineersneverclimbalone.

Theyrelyontheirteamsandthewell-rehearsedreactionsandsignalstodealwithunforeseensituations.Thisapproachisessentialtomodernizetheinternationalpaymentsystemandmitigatefragmentation.Itmeans,aboveall,

gettinggovernanceright.Whowillbeabletoaccessthesecross-borderpaymentplatforms?Underwhatconditions?Whowillrun,manage,andoverseetheseplatforms?Whatistheroleoftheprivatesector?Wewillneedtotacklethesequestionsandagreeonasetofclearrulesforthefuture.Onethingisclear:predictabilitywillfacilitate

integration,whereasexcessivediscretionwilllikelyincreasetheriskof

fragmentation.Thismaywellbethe

steepestpartofourclimb.Whenitcomestogovernance,countries