管理者不太可能將某些事情作為問題課件

Chapter06DECISIONMAKING:THEESSENCEOFTHEMANAGER’SJOB6-116-Chapter06DECISIONMAKING:6-11LearningObjectivesYoushouldlearnto:1,Outlinethestepsinthedecision-makingprocess2,Explainwhydecisionmakingissopervasiveinorganizations3,Describetherationaldecisionmaker4,Contrasttheperfectlyrationalandboundedrationalapproachestodecisionmaking5,Explaintherolethatintuitionplaysinthedecision-makingprocess6-226-LearningObjectivesYoushouldLearningObjectives(cont.)Youshouldlearnto:6,Identifythetwotypesofdecisionproblemsandthetwotypesofdecisionsthatareusedtosolvethem7,Differentiatethedecisionconditionsofcertainty,risk,anduncertainty8,Describethedifferentdecision-makingstyles6-336-LearningObjectives(cont.)YouDecisionschoicesfromtwoormorealternativesallorganizationalmembersmakedecisionsDecision-MakingProcessacomprehensive,8-stepprocessStep1-IdentifyingaProblemproblem-discrepancybetweenanexistingandadesiredstateofaffairsmustbesuchthatitexertspressuretoactmanagerisunlikelytocharacterizeasituationasaproblemunlesss/hehasnecessaryresourcestoact管理者不太可能將某些事情作為問題，如果他們不具有采取行動的必要資源1,Outlinethestepsinthedecision-makingprocess6-446-Decisions1,OutlinethestepsiTheDecision-MakingProcessProblemIdentification“Mysalespeopleneednewcomputers”IdentificationofDecisionCriteriaPriceWeightWarrantyScreentypeReliabilityScreensizeAllocationofWeightstoCriteriaReliability10Screensize8Warranty5Weight5Price4Screentype3DevelopmentofAlternativesAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshibaImplementationofanAlternativeGatewayEvaluationofDecisionEffectivenessAnalysisofAlternativesAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshibaSelectionofanAlternativeAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshiba6-5?PrenticeHall,200256-TheDecision-MakingProcessProDecision-MakingProcess(cont.)Step2-IdentifyingDecisionCriteriadecisioncriteria-what’srelevantinmakingadecisionStep3-AllocatingWeightstotheCriteriamustweightthecriteriatogivethemappropriatepriorityinthedecisionStep4-DevelopingAlternativeslisttheviable可行的alternativesthatcouldresolvetheproblemwithoutevaluatingthemStep5-AnalyzingAlternativeseachalternativeisevaluatedagainstthecriteriaDecisionMaking(cont.)6-666-Decision-MakingProcess(cont.

AssessedValuesofNotebookComputerAlternativesAgainstDecisionCriteria

6-776-AssessedValuesofNotebookCEvaluationofLaptopComputerAlternativesAgainstCriteriaandWeights6-886-EvaluationofLaptopComputerDecisionMaking(cont.)Decision-MakingProcess(cont.)Step6-SelectinganAlternativechoosingthebestalternativefromamongthoseconsideredStep7-ImplementingtheAlternativeimplementation-conveyingthedecisiontothoseaffectedbyitandgettingtheircommitmenttoitparticipationindecision-makingprocessinclinespeopletosupportthedecisiondecisionmayfailifitisnotimplementedproperlyStep8-EvaluatingDecisionEffectivenessdeterminewhethertheproblemisresolved6-996-DecisionMaking(cont.)Decisio2,Explainwhydecisionmakingissopervasiveinorganizations6-10106-2,Explainwhydecisionmaking3,Describetherationaldecisionmakingl

Rational

DecisionMakingdecisionsareconsistent前后一致的,value-maximizingchoiceswithinspecifiedconstraintsmanagersassumedtomakerationaldecisionsAssumptionsofRationality-decisionmakerwould:beobjectiveandlogicalcarefullydefineaproblemhaveaclearandspecificgoalselectthealternativethatmaximizesthelikelihoodofachievingthegoalmakedecisioninthefirm’sbesteconomic

interestsmanagerialdecisionmakingseldommeetsallthetests6-11116-3,DescribetherationaldecisiAssumptionsOfRationalityRationalDecisionMakingProblemisclearandunambiguousSingle,well-definedgoalistobeachievedAllalternativesandconsequencesareknownPreferencesareclearPreferences偏好areconstantandstableNotimeorcostconstraintsexistFinalchoicewillmaximizepayoff6-12126-AssumptionsOfRationalityRati4,ContrasttheperfectlyrationalandboundedlyrationalapproachestodecisionmakingBoundedRationalitybehaverationallywithintheparameters參數(shù)ofasimplifieddecision-makingprocessthatislimitedbyanindividual’sabilitytoprocessinformationsatisfice滿意

-acceptsolutionsthatare“goodenough”IsacommonerrorcommittedintheDMprocess?escalationofcommitment-increasedcommitmenttoapreviousdecisiondespiteevidencethatitmayhavebeenwrongrefusaltoadmitthattheinitialdecisionmayhavebeenflawed6-13136-4,Contrasttheperfectlyratio5,Explaintherolethatintuitionplaysinthedecision-makingprocessRoleofIntuitionintuitivedecisionmaking-subconsciousprocessofmakingdecisionsonthebasisofexperienceandaccumulatedjudgmentdoesnotrelyonasystematicorthoroughanalysisoftheproblemgenerallycomplementsarationalanalysis6-14146-5,ExplaintherolethatintuitWhatIsIntuition?DecisionsbasedonexperienceDecisionsbasedonfeelingsandemotionsDecisionsbasedonethicalvaluesorcultureDecisionsbasedonsubconsciousdataDecisionsbasedonskills,knowledge,ortrainingIntuitionAffect-initiateddecisionsExperienced-baseddecisionsValuesorethics-baseddecisionsSubconsciousmentalprocessingCognitive認知的-baseddecisions6-15156-WhatIsIntuition?Decisionsba6,IdentifythetwotypesofdecisionproblemsandthetwotypesofdecisionsthatareusedtosolvethemTypesofProblemsandDecisionsWell-StructuredProblems-straightforward,familiar,andeasilydefinedProgrammedDecisions-usedtoaddressstructuredproblemsminimizetheneedformanagerstousediscretionfacilitateorganizationalefficiencyprocedure-seriesofinterrelatedsequentialsteps順序的步驟usedtorespondtoastructuredproblemrule-explicit清楚的statementofwhattodoornottodopolicy-guidelinesorparametersfordecisionmaking6-16166-6,Identifythetwotypesofde6,IdentifythetwotypesofdecisionproblemsandthetwotypesofdecisionsthatareusedtosolvethemTypesofProblemsandDecisions(cont.)Poorly-StructuredProblems-new,unusualproblemsforwhichinformationisambiguousorincompleteNonprogrammedDecisions-usedtoaddresspoorly-structuredproblemsproduceacustom-maderesponsemorefrequentamonghigher-levelmanagersfewdecisionsintherealworldareeitherfullyprogrammedornonprogrammed6-17176-6,IdentifythetwotypesofdeTypesOfProblems,TypesOfDecisions,AndLevelInTheOrganizationProgrammedDecisionsNonprogrammedDecisionsLevelinOrganizationTopLowerWell-structuredIll-structuredTypeofProblem6-18186-TypesOfProblems,TypesOfDe7,Differentiatethedecisionconditionsofcertainty,risk,anduncertaintyDecision-MakingConditionsCertainty-outcomeofeveryalternativeisknownidealisticratherthanrealisticRisk-abletoestimatetheprobabilityofoutcomesstemmingfromeachalternativeexpectedvalue-theconditionalreturnfromeachpossibleoutcomemultiplyexpectedrevenuefromeachoutcomebytheprobabilityofeachoutcome6-19196-7,DifferentiatethedecisioncExpectedValueforRevenuesfromtheAdditionofOneSkiLift6-20206-ExpectedValueforRevenuesfrDecisionTreesDecisionpoint

OutcomepointBranchofsolutionprobabilityValueoflossandprofitExpectedValue=Valueoflossandprofit*probability216-DecisionTreesDecisionOutcomeexampleP125Rent20,000sq.ftRent12,000sq.ftstrong0·70weak0·30strong0·70weak0·30$320,000$50,000$240,000$130,000Expectedvalue320*0·70+50*0·30=239Expectedvalue240*0·70+130*0·30=207226-exampleRent20,000sq.ftRent12例:某公司計劃開發(fā)一種新產(chǎn)品,設(shè)計了豪華型和普及型兩個型號:個型號:豪華型:成功盈利800萬元，成功的概率為60%,失敗虧損300萬元.失敗的概率為40%;普及型:成功盈利600萬元.成功的概率為70%.失敗虧損30萬元.失敗的概率為30%。236-例:某公司計劃開發(fā)一種新產(chǎn)品,設(shè)計了豪華型和普及型兩個型號:決策方案自然狀態(tài)及概率支付值期望值豪華型普及型成功0·60失敗0·40成功0·70失敗0·30800-300600-30800*0·60+（-300）*0·40=360600*0·70+（-30）*0·30=411246-決策方案自然狀態(tài)及概率支付值期望值豪華型普及型成功0Decision-MakingConditions(cont.)Uncertainty

-notcertainaboutoutcomesandunabletoestimateprobabilitiespsychologicalorientationofdecisionmakermaximaxchoice-optimisticmaximizingthemaximumpossiblepayoff最大最大選擇maximinchoice-pessimisticmaximizingtheminimumpossiblepayoff最大最小選擇minimax-minimizethemaximum“regret”最小化其最大遺憾6-25256-Decision-MakingConditions(coPayoffMatrix收益矩陣6-26266-PayoffMatrix收益矩陣6-26266-RegretMatrix(遺憾矩陣)6-27276-RegretMatrix(遺憾矩陣)6-27276-8,Describethedifferentdecision-makingstylesDecision-MakingStyles決策風(fēng)格twodimensionsdefinetheapproachtodecisionmakingwayofthinking-differsfromrationaltointuitivetoleranceforambiguity模糊承受力-ahighneedforconsistencyandorderinmakingdecisionsothatambiguityisminimized.definefourdecision-makingstylesDirective-fast,efficient,andlogicalAnalytic-carefulandabletoadaptorcopewithnewsituationsConceptual-abletofindcreativesolutionsBehavioral

-seekacceptanceofdecisions6-28286-8,DescribethedifferentdecisDecision-MakingStylesAnalyticDirectiveBehavioralRationalIntuitiveWayofThinkingConceptualHighLowToleranceforAmbiguity6-29296-Decision-MakingStylesAnalyticWhatareAdvantages&DisadvantagesinGroupDecisionMaking?Advantages-diverseemployees:providefreshperspectivesofferdifferinginterpretationsofproblemdefinitionincreasethelikelihoodofcreativeanduniquesolutionsDisadvantages-diverseemployees:requiremoretimetoreachadecisionmayhaveproblemsofcommunicationmaycreateamorecomplex,confusing,andambiguousdecision-makingprocessmayhavedifficultyinreachingagreement6-30306-WhatareAdvantages&DisadvantOverviewOfManagerialDecisionMakingDecision-MakingProcessTypesofProblemsandDecisionsWell-structured -programmedPoorlystructured -nonprogrammedDecision-MakingConditionsCertaintyRiskUncertaintyDecisionMakerStyleDirectiveAnalyticConceptualBehavioralDecision-MakingApproachRationalityBoundedRationalityIntuition

DecisionChoosebestalternative-maximizing-satisficingImplementingEvaluating6-31316-OverviewOfManagerialDecisio演講完畢，謝謝觀看！演講完畢，謝謝觀看！Chapter06DECISIONMAKING:THEESSENCEOFTHEMANAGER’SJOB6-33336-Chapter06DECISIONMAKING:6-11LearningObjectivesYoushouldlearnto:1,Outlinethestepsinthedecision-makingprocess2,Explainwhydecisionmakingissopervasiveinorganizations3,Describetherationaldecisionmaker4,Contrasttheperfectlyrationalandboundedrationalapproachestodecisionmaking5,Explaintherolethatintuitionplaysinthedecision-makingprocess6-34346-LearningObjectivesYoushouldLearningObjectives(cont.)Youshouldlearnto:6,Identifythetwotypesofdecisionproblemsandthetwotypesofdecisionsthatareusedtosolvethem7,Differentiatethedecisionconditionsofcertainty,risk,anduncertainty8,Describethedifferentdecision-makingstyles6-35356-LearningObjectives(cont.)YouDecisionschoicesfromtwoormorealternativesallorganizationalmembersmakedecisionsDecision-MakingProcessacomprehensive,8-stepprocessStep1-IdentifyingaProblemproblem-discrepancybetweenanexistingandadesiredstateofaffairsmustbesuchthatitexertspressuretoactmanagerisunlikelytocharacterizeasituationasaproblemunlesss/hehasnecessaryresourcestoact管理者不太可能將某些事情作為問題，如果他們不具有采取行動的必要資源1,Outlinethestepsinthedecision-makingprocess6-36366-Decisions1,OutlinethestepsiTheDecision-MakingProcessProblemIdentification“Mysalespeopleneednewcomputers”IdentificationofDecisionCriteriaPriceWeightWarrantyScreentypeReliabilityScreensizeAllocationofWeightstoCriteriaReliability10Screensize8Warranty5Weight5Price4Screentype3DevelopmentofAlternativesAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshibaImplementationofanAlternativeGatewayEvaluationofDecisionEffectivenessAnalysisofAlternativesAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshibaSelectionofanAlternativeAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshiba6-37?PrenticeHall,2002376-TheDecision-MakingProcessProDecision-MakingProcess(cont.)Step2-IdentifyingDecisionCriteriadecisioncriteria-what’srelevantinmakingadecisionStep3-AllocatingWeightstotheCriteriamustweightthecriteriatogivethemappropriatepriorityinthedecisionStep4-DevelopingAlternativeslisttheviable可行的alternativesthatcouldresolvetheproblemwithoutevaluatingthemStep5-AnalyzingAlternativeseachalternativeisevaluatedagainstthecriteriaDecisionMaking(cont.)6-38386-Decision-MakingProcess(cont.

AssessedValuesofNotebookComputerAlternativesAgainstDecisionCriteria

6-39396-AssessedValuesofNotebookCEvaluationofLaptopComputerAlternativesAgainstCriteriaandWeights6-40406-EvaluationofLaptopComputerDecisionMaking(cont.)Decision-MakingProcess(cont.)Step6-SelectinganAlternativechoosingthebestalternativefromamongthoseconsideredStep7-ImplementingtheAlternativeimplementation-conveyingthedecisiontothoseaffectedbyitandgettingtheircommitmenttoitparticipationindecision-makingprocessinclinespeopletosupportthedecisiondecisionmayfailifitisnotimplementedproperlyStep8-EvaluatingDecisionEffectivenessdeterminewhethertheproblemisresolved6-41416-DecisionMaking(cont.)Decisio2,Explainwhydecisionmakingissopervasiveinorganizations6-42426-2,Explainwhydecisionmaking3,Describetherationaldecisionmakingl

Rational

DecisionMakingdecisionsareconsistent前后一致的,value-maximizingchoiceswithinspecifiedconstraintsmanagersassumedtomakerationaldecisionsAssumptionsofRationality-decisionmakerwould:beobjectiveandlogicalcarefullydefineaproblemhaveaclearandspecificgoalselectthealternativethatmaximizesthelikelihoodofachievingthegoalmakedecisioninthefirm’sbesteconomic

interestsmanagerialdecisionmakingseldommeetsallthetests6-43436-3,DescribetherationaldecisiAssumptionsOfRationalityRationalDecisionMakingProblemisclearandunambiguousSingle,well-definedgoalistobeachievedAllalternativesandconsequencesareknownPreferencesareclearPreferences偏好areconstantandstableNotimeorcostconstraintsexistFinalchoicewillmaximizepayoff6-44446-AssumptionsOfRationalityRati4,ContrasttheperfectlyrationalandboundedlyrationalapproachestodecisionmakingBoundedRationalitybehaverationallywithintheparameters參數(shù)ofasimplifieddecision-makingprocessthatislimitedbyanindividual’sabilitytoprocessinformationsatisfice滿意

-acceptsolutionsthatare“goodenough”IsacommonerrorcommittedintheDMprocess?escalationofcommitment-increasedcommitmenttoapreviousdecisiondespiteevidencethatitmayhavebeenwrongrefusaltoadmitthattheinitialdecisionmayhavebeenflawed6-45456-4,Contrasttheperfectlyratio5,Explaintherolethatintuitionplaysinthedecision-makingprocessRoleofIntuitionintuitivedecisionmaking-subconsciousprocessofmakingdecisionsonthebasisofexperienceandaccumulatedjudgmentdoesnotrelyonasystematicorthoroughanalysisoftheproblemgenerallycomplementsarationalanalysis6-46466-5,ExplaintherolethatintuitWhatIsIntuition?DecisionsbasedonexperienceDecisionsbasedonfeelingsandemotionsDecisionsbasedonethicalvaluesorcultureDecisionsbasedonsubconsciousdataDecisionsbasedonskills,knowledge,ortrainingIntuitionAffect-initiateddecisionsExperienced-baseddecisionsValuesorethics-baseddecisionsSubconsciousmentalprocessingCognitive認知的-baseddecisions6-47476-WhatIsIntuition?Decisionsba6,IdentifythetwotypesofdecisionproblemsandthetwotypesofdecisionsthatareusedtosolvethemTypesofProblemsandDecisionsWell-StructuredProblems-straightforward,familiar,andeasilydefinedProgrammedDecisions-usedtoaddressstructuredproblemsminimizetheneedformanagerstousediscretionfacilitateorganizationalefficiencyprocedure-seriesofinterrelatedsequentialsteps順序的步驟usedtorespondtoastructuredproblemrule-explicit清楚的statementofwhattodoornottodopolicy-guidelinesorparametersfordecisionmaking6-48486-6,Identifythetwotypesofde6,IdentifythetwotypesofdecisionproblemsandthetwotypesofdecisionsthatareusedtosolvethemTypesofProblemsandDecisions(cont.)Poorly-StructuredProblems-new,unusualproblemsforwhichinformationisambiguousorincompleteNonprogrammedDecisions-usedtoaddresspoorly-structuredproblemsproduceacustom-maderesponsemorefrequentamonghigher-levelmanagersfewdecisionsintherealworldareeitherfullyprogrammedornonprogrammed6-49496-6,IdentifythetwotypesofdeTypesOfProblems,TypesOfDecisions,AndLevelInTheOrganizationProgrammedDecisionsNonprogrammedDecisionsLevelinOrganizationTopLowerWell-structuredIll-structuredTypeofProblem6-50506-TypesOfProblems,TypesOfDe7,Differentiatethedecisionconditionsofcertainty,risk,anduncertaintyDecision-MakingConditionsCertainty-outcomeofeveryalternativeisknownidealisticratherthanrealisticRisk-abletoestimatetheprobabilityofoutcomesstemmingfromeachalternativeexpectedvalue-theconditionalreturnfromeachpossibleoutcomemultiplyexpectedrevenuefromeachoutcomebytheprobabilityofeachoutcome6-51516-7,DifferentiatethedecisioncExpectedValueforRevenuesfromtheAdditionofOneSkiLift6-52526-ExpectedValueforRevenuesfrDecisionTreesDecisionpoint

OutcomepointBranchofsolutionprobabilityValueoflossandprofitExpectedValue=Valueoflossandprofit*probability536-DecisionTreesDecisionOutcomeexampleP125Rent20,000sq.ftRent12,000sq.ftstrong0·70weak0·30strong0·70weak0·30$320,000$50,000$240,000$130,000Expectedvalue320*0·70+50*0·30=239Expectedvalue240*0·70+130*0·30=207546-exampleRent20,000sq.ftRent12例:某公司計劃開發(fā)一種新產(chǎn)品,設(shè)計了豪華型和普及型兩個型號:個型號:豪華型:成功盈利800萬元，成功的概率為60%,失敗虧損300萬元.失敗的概率為40%;普及型:成功盈利600萬元.成功的概率為70%.失敗虧損30萬元.失敗的概率為30%。556-例:某公司計劃開發(fā)一種新產(chǎn)品,設(shè)計了豪華型和普及型兩個型號:決策方案自然狀態(tài)及概率支付值期望值豪華型普及型成功0·60失敗0·40成功0·70失敗0·30800-300600-30800*0·60+（-300）*0·40=360600*0·70+（-30）*0·30=411566-決策方案自然狀態(tài)及概率支付值期望值豪華型普及型成功0Decision-MakingConditions(cont.)Uncertainty

-notcertainaboutoutcomesandunabletoestimateprobabilitiespsychologicalorientationofdecisionmakermaximax