新概念英語1 L133 134課件

新概念英語1-L133-134課件新概念英語1-L133-134課件1Let’share!What’sthemostsensationalnewsyouhaveeverheard?Video:thelatestnewsLet’share!What’sthemostsen2Newwordsandexpressionsreporter[ri'p?:t?]n．記者

sensational[sen'sei??n?l]adj．爆炸性的，聳人聽聞的

minkcoat['mi?k-k?ut]貂皮大衣

Newwordsandexpressionsrepor3新概念英語1L133134課件4新概念英語1L133134課件5新概念英語1L133134課件6Newwordsandexpressionsn．記者reporter[ri'p?:t?]

adj．爆炸性的，聳人聽聞的sensational[sen'sei??n?l]

貂皮大衣minkcoat['mi?k-k?ut]Newwordsandexpressionsn．記者7直接引語變間接引語直接引語Hesaid,”IlikeEnglishverymuch.”間接引語HesaidthathelikedEnglishverymuch.直接轉(zhuǎn)述別人的話，用引號。用自己的話轉(zhuǎn)述別人的話。一般情況下是賓語從句直接引語變間接引語直接引語Hesaid,”Ilik8(1)人稱的變化Shesays,“Iamabusdriver.”→Shesays(that)sheisabusdriver.Hesays,“Mymotherwillcomebacktomorrow.”→

Hesays(that)hismotherwillcomebacktomorrow.Tomsays,“Youareagoodstudent.”→TomsaysIamagoodstudent.(1)人稱的變化9時態(tài)變化時態(tài)變化10指示代詞，時間狀語，地點狀語的指示代詞，時間狀語，地點狀語的11TextDoyoustillrememberKarenMarsh?Whatisshe?Howoldisshe?TextDoyoustillrememberKare12Watchthevideoandanswerthequestion:WhatreasonsdidKarenMarshgiveforwantingtoretire?Becauseshesaidshefeltverytired.Watchthevideoandanswerthe13FurtherQuestions:Whoisthereporter?

AlanJones2.Hasshejustmadeanewfilm?Yes,shehas.3.Isshegoingtomakeanotherfilm?No,sheisn’t.4.Whatisshegoingtodo?

Sheisgoingtoretire.5.Howdoesshefeel?Shefeelstired.6.Doesshewanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime?

No,shedoesn’t.FurtherQuestions:14REPORTER:Haveyoujustmadeanewfilm,MissMarsh?MISSMARSH:Yes,Ihave.REPORTER:Areyougoingtomakeanother?MISSMARSH:No,I'mnot.I'mgoingtoretire.Ifeelverytired.Idon’twanttoforalongtime.makeafilm拍電影時態(tài)：現(xiàn)在完成時另一another(film)Why?for+時間段表時間持續(xù)長短makeanotherfilmREPORTER:Haveyoujustmadea15Shesays,“Ihavejustmadeanewfilm.”Shesaysthatshehasjustmadeanewfilm.Shesays,“I'mnotgoingtomakeanother.”Shesaysthatsheisnotgoingtomakeanother.Shesays,“I'mgoingtoretire.”Shesaysthatsheisgoingtoretire.”Shesays,“Ifeelverytired.”Shesaysthatshefeelsverytired.Shesays,“Idon'twanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime.Shesaysshedoesn’twanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime.Shesays,“Ihavejustmadea16Shesaid,“Ihavejustmadeanewfilm.”Shesaidthatshehadjustmadeanewfilm.Shesaid,“I'mnotgoingtomakeanother.”Shesaidthatshewasnotgoingtomakeanother.Shesaid,“I'mgoingtoretire.”Shesaidthatshewasgoingtoretire.”Shesaid,“Ifeelverytired.”ShesaidthatshefeltverytiredShesaid,“Idon'twanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime.Shesaidshedidn’twanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime.Shesaid,“Ihavejustmadea17KATE:Let's

buyanewspaper,Liz.

Listen

tothis!

‘KarenMarsh:SensationalNews!

Byourreporter,AlanJones.

KarenMarsharrivedatLondonAirporttoday.

Shewaswearingabluedressandaminkcoat.

letsb.dosth.hadbetterdosth.后面接不定式的動詞：asksb.todosth.tellsb.todosth.wantsb.todosth.wouldlikesb.todosth.listen為不及物動詞listen+prep.+賓語e.g.look/arrive引出作者名wear狀態(tài)=bedressedinputon穿上KATE:Let'sbuyanewspaper,L18Shetoldmeshehadjustmadeanewfilm.

Shesaidshewasnotgoingtomakeanother.

Shesaidshewasgoingtoretire.

Shetoldreportersshefeltverytired

anddidn'twanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime.Shetoldmeshehadjustmade19Iwonderwhy!wonder“不知道，想知道”我想知道你為什么不想回家Iwonderwhyyoudidn’twanttogohome.我想知道她是誰。(賓語從句要用陳述語序)Iwonderwhosheis.Let’smakesentence:Iwonder…Iwonderwhy!wonder20Pairwork:頭腦風(fēng)暴！A:(Makesentences!)B:Asaid(that)…Pairwork:頭腦風(fēng)暴！21語法歸納：性質(zhì)：賓語從句人稱:一隨主,二隨賓,三不變時態(tài)：主句為一般過去時態(tài)，從句相應(yīng)的變化引導(dǎo)詞:陳述句用that一般疑問句用if或whether特殊疑問句用特殊疑問詞祈使句：tellsb.todos.thasksb.todos.thordersb.todos.th語法歸納：陳述句用that一般疑問句用if或whether特22Practice:1)Hesaid,“My

brotherfailedintheexam.”Hesaid____brotherhadfailedintheexam.2)HesaidtoMary,“Howisyourmothernow?”heaskedMaryhow_____motherwasthen.3)Myteachersaid,‘‘sheisagoodstudent.’’Myteachersaid____wasagoodstudent4)Hesaidtome,“I’veleftherbookinyourroom”Hetoldmethat___hadleft___bookin___room.hishershehehermyPractice:hishershehehermy23練習(xí)：1.“Inevereatmeat.”

hesaid.

Hesaidthat

never

meat.2.“Imetheryesterday.”

hetoldme.He

methathe

heryesterday.3.Hesaid,“Youcansithere,Jim.”He

Jimthathe

sitthere.heatetoldhadmettoldcould練習(xí)：heatetoldhadmettoldcould245.“Doyouknowwhereshelives?”

heasked.Heasked

knewwhereshe

.6.“Stopmakingsomuchnoise,children.”

hesaid.

He

thechildren

makingsomuchnoise.7.“Don’ttellhimthenews.”

shesaid.Shetoldme

himthenews.8.“Areyouinterestedinthis?”

hesaid.He

Iwasinterestedin

.if/whetherIlivedtoldtostopnottotellaskedif/whetherthatif/whetherIlivedtoldtostopnot251.Jacksaidtome,“Youlookworriedtoday.”Jacktoldmethat___worried___.A.helooks…todayB.youlook…todayC.welooked…thatdayD.Ilooked…thatdayExerciseII1.Jacksaidtome,“Youlook262.Wesaidtoher,“They’rewalkingthroughthestreet.”Wetoldherthat___throughthestreet.

A.wewerewalking…thenB.youarewalking…nowC.theywerewalking…thenD.theywalking…now2.Wesaidtoher,“They’rewa278.Jacksaidtoher,“Wheredoyouspendyourholidays?”Jackaskedherwhere____holidays.shespentherB.youspendyourC.shespendherD.youspentyour8.Jacksaidtoher,“Wheredo289.Blackaskedme,“Whyhaven’tyoulefthereyet?”Blackaskedmewhy____yet.Ihadn’tleftthereB.Ihaven’tlefthereC.hadn’tIleftthereD.haven’tIlefthere9.Blackaskedme,“Whyhaven29Homework1.課文背誦2.單詞抄寫5+3.趣配音Homework1.課文背誦30第六章信用風(fēng)險度量模型

——期權(quán)推理分析法第六章信用風(fēng)險度量模型

31期權(quán)應(yīng)用舉例：信用風(fēng)險度量期權(quán)推理分析法（Option-theoreticApproach）：KMV模型（一）原理

1、貸款與期權(quán)的關(guān)系假設(shè)企業(yè)借款額為OB,貸款到期時該企業(yè)的資產(chǎn)市值為OA2，如圖3所示。在這種情況下，企業(yè)將歸還這筆貸款，并且企業(yè)的股東還會得到資產(chǎn)增值部分。貸款到期時，企業(yè)資產(chǎn)的市值越大，企業(yè)留給股東的資產(chǎn)增值就越大。反之，如果企業(yè)資產(chǎn)市值低于OB(如OA1

),則借款者資不抵債破產(chǎn)，只能把企業(yè)資產(chǎn)交給銀行來處置。從圖4中可以看出，如果企業(yè)資產(chǎn)市值降到借款總額B以下的某一點（如L，OL相當(dāng)于企業(yè)的資產(chǎn)市值），因為借款人的責(zé)任以其自身財產(chǎn)為限，所以借款人一旦破產(chǎn)，其最大的損失就是自身的資產(chǎn)OL，這時他會選擇破產(chǎn)而不是償還貸款。因此，可以將借款企業(yè)股東的股權(quán)市值頭寸看成持有一份以企業(yè)資產(chǎn)市值為標(biāo)的的看漲期權(quán)。期權(quán)應(yīng)用舉例：信用風(fēng)險度量期權(quán)推理分析法（Opti32期權(quán)應(yīng)用舉例：信用風(fēng)險度量股權(quán)價值E0-LA1BA2資產(chǎn)價值期權(quán)應(yīng)用舉例：信用風(fēng)險度量股權(quán)價值E0-LA1BA2資產(chǎn)價值33期權(quán)應(yīng)用舉例：信用風(fēng)險度量

2、企業(yè)股權(quán)市值與其資產(chǎn)市值之間的關(guān)系根據(jù)布萊克-斯科爾斯-默頓模型中股票看漲期權(quán)定價原理，企業(yè)股權(quán)市值可由下式來估價：（9）

式（9）中，A是資產(chǎn)市值，B是貸款總額，r是短期利率，是企業(yè)資產(chǎn)市值的波動性,是股票看跌期權(quán)的到期日或在貸款情形下指貸款期限（或違約期限）。在所有變量中，符號上方加一橫線是可以從市場上觀察到的。上式表示企業(yè)股權(quán)市值與它的資產(chǎn)市值之間的關(guān)系。如果能得到企業(yè)資產(chǎn)市值的波動性，就可以算出企業(yè)資產(chǎn)的市值，從而結(jié)合二者得到借款企業(yè)的理論預(yù)期違約概率，對貸款的信用風(fēng)險作出評價。期權(quán)應(yīng)用舉例：信用風(fēng)險度量2、企業(yè)股權(quán)市值與其資產(chǎn)市值之間34期權(quán)應(yīng)用舉例：信用風(fēng)險度量由于企業(yè)股權(quán)市值的波動性（）與它資產(chǎn)市值波動性之間存在理論關(guān)系式：（10）而股權(quán)市值的波動性是可以在市場上觀察到的，因此，將式（9）與（10）聯(lián)立，通過連續(xù)的迭代，便可最終求出A值和值。在式（9）中，B也為違約執(zhí)行點，它的數(shù)量是企業(yè)所有短期負(fù)債（一年或一年以下）和50%的長期債務(wù)賬面值。為債務(wù)到期日，通常設(shè)定為一年。一旦A值和值計算出來，B值和值確定后，便可計算出理論預(yù)期違約頻率的值了。假設(shè)某一借款企業(yè)資產(chǎn)市值A(chǔ)為1億美元，其資產(chǎn)市值年標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差為1000萬美元，違約執(zhí)行價格B為8000萬美元，為一年期，r為無風(fēng)險利率。那么該企業(yè)在一年內(nèi)倒閉的概率，在理論上是該企業(yè)在一年內(nèi)從目前的資產(chǎn)市值1億美元降到違約價格8000萬美元以下的概率。期權(quán)應(yīng)用舉例：信用風(fēng)險度量由于企業(yè)股35期權(quán)應(yīng)用舉例：信用風(fēng)險度量與此同時，當(dāng)假定該企業(yè)未來一年內(nèi)資產(chǎn)市值是圍繞著目前資產(chǎn)市值水平呈正態(tài)分布狀，由此便可計算出當(dāng)T=0（今天），該企業(yè)在一年期限中到達(dá)違約點的距離：

抵達(dá)違約點的距離=

進(jìn)入違約區(qū)域的借款企業(yè)只有它的資產(chǎn)價值在一年內(nèi)減少2000萬美元，或者進(jìn)入2個標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差的水平甚至更多才會違約。如果企業(yè)資產(chǎn)市值的確呈現(xiàn)正態(tài)分布的話，這時有95%的概率，其資產(chǎn)市值圍繞著它們的均值在正負(fù)1.96個標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差之間波動。同時，該企業(yè)資產(chǎn)市值變動量超過±1.96的概率分別為2.5%。換言之，該借款企業(yè)具有2.5%的預(yù)期違約概率（EDF）。期權(quán)應(yīng)用舉例：信用風(fēng)險度量與此同時，36期權(quán)應(yīng)用舉例：信用風(fēng)險度量以上是借款企業(yè)理論預(yù)期違約概率，它與現(xiàn)實中實際發(fā)生的預(yù)期違約概率存在很大差異。因此，KMV公司建立一個全球范圍內(nèi)企業(yè)和企業(yè)違約信息數(shù)據(jù)庫，計算出了各類信用等級企業(yè)經(jīng)驗預(yù)期違約概率，從而產(chǎn)生以這種經(jīng)驗預(yù)期違約頻率為基礎(chǔ)的信用分值。KMV模型的優(yōu)點——①充分利用資本市場信息來進(jìn)行信用風(fēng)險的量化分析。②所獲取的數(shù)據(jù)來自股市資料，而非企業(yè)的歷史賬面資料，因此，更能反映企業(yè)當(dāng)前信用狀況，預(yù)測能力更強。③建立在理財理論和期權(quán)理論基礎(chǔ)上，得出的預(yù)期違約概率具有較強的說服力。KMV模型的缺陷——①適用于對上市公司的信用風(fēng)險評估，對非上市公司評估時，需借助某些會計資料信息，因而計算出來的EDF值未必準(zhǔn)確。②假定企業(yè)資產(chǎn)價值呈正態(tài)分布，但現(xiàn)實中并非所有企業(yè)都符合這一假設(shè)。③不能對長期債務(wù)的不同類型進(jìn)行分辨。期權(quán)應(yīng)用舉例：信用風(fēng)險度量以上是借37新概念英語1-L133-134課件新概念英語1-L133-134課件38Let’share!What’sthemostsensationalnewsyouhaveeverheard?Video:thelatestnewsLet’share!What’sthemostsen39Newwordsandexpressionsreporter[ri'p?:t?]n．記者

sensational[sen'sei??n?l]adj．爆炸性的，聳人聽聞的

minkcoat['mi?k-k?ut]貂皮大衣

Newwordsandexpressionsrepor40新概念英語1L133134課件41新概念英語1L133134課件42新概念英語1L133134課件43Newwordsandexpressionsn．記者reporter[ri'p?:t?]

adj．爆炸性的，聳人聽聞的sensational[sen'sei??n?l]

貂皮大衣minkcoat['mi?k-k?ut]Newwordsandexpressionsn．記者44直接引語變間接引語直接引語Hesaid,”IlikeEnglishverymuch.”間接引語HesaidthathelikedEnglishverymuch.直接轉(zhuǎn)述別人的話，用引號。用自己的話轉(zhuǎn)述別人的話。一般情況下是賓語從句直接引語變間接引語直接引語Hesaid,”Ilik45(1)人稱的變化Shesays,“Iamabusdriver.”→Shesays(that)sheisabusdriver.Hesays,“Mymotherwillcomebacktomorrow.”→

Hesays(that)hismotherwillcomebacktomorrow.Tomsays,“Youareagoodstudent.”→TomsaysIamagoodstudent.(1)人稱的變化46時態(tài)變化時態(tài)變化47指示代詞，時間狀語，地點狀語的指示代詞，時間狀語，地點狀語的48TextDoyoustillrememberKarenMarsh?Whatisshe?Howoldisshe?TextDoyoustillrememberKare49Watchthevideoandanswerthequestion:WhatreasonsdidKarenMarshgiveforwantingtoretire?Becauseshesaidshefeltverytired.Watchthevideoandanswerthe50FurtherQuestions:Whoisthereporter?

AlanJones2.Hasshejustmadeanewfilm?Yes,shehas.3.Isshegoingtomakeanotherfilm?No,sheisn’t.4.Whatisshegoingtodo?

Sheisgoingtoretire.5.Howdoesshefeel?Shefeelstired.6.Doesshewanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime?

No,shedoesn’t.FurtherQuestions:51REPORTER:Haveyoujustmadeanewfilm,MissMarsh?MISSMARSH:Yes,Ihave.REPORTER:Areyougoingtomakeanother?MISSMARSH:No,I'mnot.I'mgoingtoretire.Ifeelverytired.Idon’twanttoforalongtime.makeafilm拍電影時態(tài)：現(xiàn)在完成時另一another(film)Why?for+時間段表時間持續(xù)長短makeanotherfilmREPORTER:Haveyoujustmadea52Shesays,“Ihavejustmadeanewfilm.”Shesaysthatshehasjustmadeanewfilm.Shesays,“I'mnotgoingtomakeanother.”Shesaysthatsheisnotgoingtomakeanother.Shesays,“I'mgoingtoretire.”Shesaysthatsheisgoingtoretire.”Shesays,“Ifeelverytired.”Shesaysthatshefeelsverytired.Shesays,“Idon'twanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime.Shesaysshedoesn’twanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime.Shesays,“Ihavejustmadea53Shesaid,“Ihavejustmadeanewfilm.”Shesaidthatshehadjustmadeanewfilm.Shesaid,“I'mnotgoingtomakeanother.”Shesaidthatshewasnotgoingtomakeanother.Shesaid,“I'mgoingtoretire.”Shesaidthatshewasgoingtoretire.”Shesaid,“Ifeelverytired.”ShesaidthatshefeltverytiredShesaid,“Idon'twanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime.Shesaidshedidn’twanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime.Shesaid,“Ihavejustmadea54KATE:Let's

buyanewspaper,Liz.

Listen

tothis!

‘KarenMarsh:SensationalNews!

Byourreporter,AlanJones.

KarenMarsharrivedatLondonAirporttoday.

Shewaswearingabluedressandaminkcoat.

letsb.dosth.hadbetterdosth.后面接不定式的動詞：asksb.todosth.tellsb.todosth.wantsb.todosth.wouldlikesb.todosth.listen為不及物動詞listen+prep.+賓語e.g.look/arrive引出作者名wear狀態(tài)=bedressedinputon穿上KATE:Let'sbuyanewspaper,L55Shetoldmeshehadjustmadeanewfilm.

Shesaidshewasnotgoingtomakeanother.

Shesaidshewasgoingtoretire.

Shetoldreportersshefeltverytired

anddidn'twanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime.Shetoldmeshehadjustmade56Iwonderwhy!wonder“不知道，想知道”我想知道你為什么不想回家Iwonderwhyyoudidn’twanttogohome.我想知道她是誰。(賓語從句要用陳述語序)Iwonderwhosheis.Let’smakesentence:Iwonder…Iwonderwhy!wonder57Pairwork:頭腦風(fēng)暴！A:(Makesentences!)B:Asaid(that)…Pairwork:頭腦風(fēng)暴！58語法歸納：性質(zhì)：賓語從句人稱:一隨主,二隨賓,三不變時態(tài)：主句為一般過去時態(tài)，從句相應(yīng)的變化引導(dǎo)詞:陳述句用that一般疑問句用if或whether特殊疑問句用特殊疑問詞祈使句：tellsb.todos.thasksb.todos.thordersb.todos.th語法歸納：陳述句用that一般疑問句用if或whether特59Practice:1)Hesaid,“My

brotherfailedintheexam.”Hesaid____brotherhadfailedintheexam.2)HesaidtoMary,“Howisyourmothernow?”heaskedMaryhow_____motherwasthen.3)Myteachersaid,‘‘sheisagoodstudent.’’Myteachersaid____wasagoodstudent4)Hesaidtome,“I’veleftherbookinyourroom”Hetoldmethat___hadleft___bookin___room.hishershehehermyPractice:hishershehehermy60練習(xí)：1.“Inevereatmeat.”

hesaid.

Hesaidthat

never

meat.2.“Imetheryesterday.”

hetoldme.He

methathe

heryesterday.3.Hesaid,“Youcansithere,Jim.”He

Jimthathe

sitthere.heatetoldhadmettoldcould練習(xí)：heatetoldhadmettoldcould615.“Doyouknowwhereshelives?”

heasked.Heasked

knewwhereshe

.6.“Stopmakingsomuchnoise,children.”

hesaid.

He

thechildren

makingsomuchnoise.7.“Don’ttellhimthenews.”

shesaid.Shetoldme

himthenews.8.“Areyouinterestedinthis?”

hesaid.He

Iwasinterestedin

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——期權(quán)推理分析法第六章信用風(fēng)險度量模型

68期權(quán)應(yīng)用舉例：信用風(fēng)險度量期權(quán)推理分析法（Option-theoreticApproach）：KMV模型（一）原理

1、貸款與期權(quán)的關(guān)系假設(shè)企業(yè)借款額為OB,貸款到期時該企業(yè)的資產(chǎn)市值為OA2，如圖3所示。在這種情況下，企業(yè)將歸還這筆貸款，并且企業(yè)的股東還會得到資產(chǎn)增值部分。貸款到期時，企業(yè)資產(chǎn)的市值越大，企業(yè)留給股東的資產(chǎn)增值就越大。反之，如果企業(yè)資產(chǎn)市值低于OB(如OA1

),則借款者資不抵債破產(chǎn)，只能把企業(yè)資產(chǎn)交給銀行來處置。從圖4中可以看出，如果企業(yè)資產(chǎn)市值降到借款總額B以下的某一點（如L，OL相當(dāng)于企業(yè)的資產(chǎn)市值），因為借款人的責(zé)任以其自身財產(chǎn)為限，所以借款人一旦破產(chǎn)，其最大的損失就是自身的資產(chǎn)OL，這時他會選擇破產(chǎn)而不是償還貸款。因此，可以將借款企業(yè)股東的股權(quán)市值頭寸看成持有一份以企業(yè)資產(chǎn)市值為標(biāo)的的看漲期權(quán)。期權(quán)應(yīng)用舉例：信用風(fēng)險度量期權(quán)推理