項(xiàng)目融資及信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理

1、Project Finance and Credit Risk Management項(xiàng)目融資及信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理Project Finance Overview項(xiàng)目融資簡介Credit Risks in Project Finance項(xiàng)目融資中的信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Credit Risk Management (Financial Risks)信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理 (財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn))Cash Flow Analysis現(xiàn)金流分析 I (NPV and IRR凈現(xiàn)值和內(nèi)部收益率)Cash Flow Analysis現(xiàn)金流分析 II (Individual Cash Flows單個(gè)現(xiàn)金流)Stress Testing/Simul

2、ation壓力測試/仿真模擬Credit Risk Management (Political Risks)信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理 (政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn))Table of Contents目錄Project Finance Overview項(xiàng)目融資概況Basels Definition of PF (in short)項(xiàng)目融資的Basel定義A simple cash-flow stream簡單的現(xiàn)金流量The value of PF relies on a simple cash-flow stream generated by a single project and the collateral value

3、 of the project assets: the source of the cash-flow may be a single buyer or consumers.項(xiàng)目融資的價(jià)值在于簡單的現(xiàn)金流量產(chǎn)生于單一的項(xiàng)目，以及項(xiàng)目資產(chǎn)的抵押價(jià)值：現(xiàn)金流的來源可能是一個(gè)買家或者客戶。Non- or limited-recourse沒有資源或資源有限An independent SPE is created to hold the project assets and to integrate all legal contracts in an effective and efficient m

4、anner for funding, building and operating a single purpose project. SPE is owned by one or a few sponsors and it is highly leveraged.一個(gè)獨(dú)立的項(xiàng)目公司建立的目的就是為了持有項(xiàng)目資產(chǎn)，集中所有法律合同進(jìn)行有效和有效率的融資，建立和經(jīng)營一個(gè)單一目的的項(xiàng)目。項(xiàng)目公司是被一個(gè)或者一些發(fā)起人擁有的，而且他的負(fù)債對資產(chǎn)比率很高。Risk allocation風(fēng)險(xiǎn)配置PF is used for large, complex, and expensive industrial

5、 facilities such as natural resources and infrastructure sectors, which involve a series of legal contracts in a vertical chain from input supplier to output purchaser.項(xiàng)目融資被用于大型，復(fù)雜及昂貴的工業(yè)設(shè)備上，例如自然資源和基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)部分，涉及到從原料提供商到產(chǎn)成品采購方的垂直鏈上的一系列法律合同Based on: International Convergence of Capital Management and Capit

6、al Standards, BIS, 2006, para 221,222Why PF Structure? Sponsors Motivation為什么使用項(xiàng)目融資結(jié)構(gòu)？發(fā)起人的動機(jī)Risk mitigation/Debt capacity風(fēng)險(xiǎn)緩解/負(fù)債能力By isolating the asset in a standalone project company, project finance reduces the possibility of risk contamination, the phenomenon whereby a failing asset drags an oth

7、erwise healthy sponsoring firm into distress.發(fā)起人可以把資產(chǎn)放在一個(gè)獨(dú)立的項(xiàng)目公司中，項(xiàng)目融資降低了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的可能性，否則其他不良資產(chǎn)可能會導(dǎo)致整個(gè)公司都進(jìn)入困境。The sponsor can preserve corporate debt capacity.發(fā)起人可以保障公司的借債能力To create asset specific governance structure可以建立明確的資產(chǎn)管理結(jié)構(gòu)Separate legal incorporation, which assumes a specific project and few growt

8、h options, reduces both the cost of monitoring managerial actions and assessing performance, and wasteful expenditures and sub-optimal reinvestment.單獨(dú)設(shè)立法人企業(yè)，各自承擔(dān)一個(gè)項(xiàng)目，降低了各自的監(jiān)管，評價(jià)成本，節(jié)約了浪費(fèi)的費(fèi)用，和次優(yōu)再投資。Deterrent against strategic behavior by the third parties可以威懾第三方的戰(zhàn)略行動Sponsor can involve the critical pa

9、rties for the project, including the public sector, as shareholders to prevent future conflict.發(fā)起人可以把重要的合作方，例如公共部門納入項(xiàng)目中，例如作為項(xiàng)目的股東，這樣可以防止將來的沖突By involving international banks and multilateral agencies whose interest is solely in cash-flow maximization by the project, the sponsor may prevent harmful a

10、ction by the host government.發(fā)起人可以把國際銀行，國際代理納入項(xiàng)目公司，他們的利益會由項(xiàng)目而達(dá)到最大化，這樣發(fā)起人就有可能防止當(dāng)?shù)卣挠泻π袨锽ased on: The Economic Motivations for Using Project Finance, Benjamin C. Esty, 2003PF vs. Corporate Finance項(xiàng)目融資 vs. 公司金融Project Finance項(xiàng)目融資Limited or non-recourse資源有限或者沒有資源Simple cash-flow structure produced from

11、 one independent waste asset由單一資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生的單一現(xiàn)金流結(jié)構(gòu)High-leverage at beginning, but getting lower toward the end of the debt repayment初期較高的財(cái)務(wù)杠桿， 但在債務(wù)償付之后逐降低Relatively a few layers of debt and equity structure (simple ownership)相對較少的債務(wù)和權(quán)益結(jié)構(gòu)（單一所有權(quán)）Applied to projects attaining a scale of economy適用于達(dá)到規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)的項(xiàng)目Cor

12、porate Finance公司金融Full recourse充足資源Complicated cash-flow structure produced from a set of various, replaceable profit making projects由一系列可替代的盈利項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)生的復(fù)雜的現(xiàn)金流結(jié)構(gòu)Leverage depends on a companys target capital structure財(cái)務(wù)杠桿取決于公司的目標(biāo)資本結(jié)構(gòu)Various layers of debt and equity structure (complicated ownership)較多層次的債

13、券和權(quán)益結(jié)構(gòu)（復(fù)雜的所有權(quán)）Applied to all profit making business types適用于所有盈利企業(yè)類型Typical Structure of Conventional PF典型的傳統(tǒng)項(xiàng)目融資結(jié)構(gòu)Off-take purchaser包銷商Input supplier投入供應(yīng)商Operator運(yùn)營商Project company項(xiàng)目公司 (SPE)Contractors承包商Lenders借款人Sponsors發(fā)起人Central/localGovernment中央/地方政府ConcessionAuthority特許權(quán)許可Insurers保險(xiǎn)公司Sharehol

14、ders Agreement股東協(xié)議Equity所有者權(quán)益Loan Agreement借款合同Debt借款Construction Agreement建造合同License/permit專利權(quán)/許可權(quán)Concession Agreement特許權(quán)合同Insurance保險(xiǎn)Off-take agreement包銷協(xié)議Supply agreement供應(yīng)合同Operation/maintenance Agreement運(yùn)營/維護(hù)合同Power/utility電力/動力Multilateral/bilateral agencies多方/雙方代理Equipment suppliers設(shè)備供應(yīng)商2. C

15、redit Risks in Project Finance項(xiàng)目融資中的信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn) Fire Flooding Earthquake Volcano Disease Strike Insurrection Terrorism WarForce Majeure EventsPoliticalRisks Corruption Legal/regulatory -irregularities License/Permit Concession Taxes Equity-holding Currency -inconvertibility Expatriation Preemption/priority

16、 Breach of contract Foreign worker limitation Law enforcement Construction Facility site Equipment Technology Off-take Input Operation Utility Collateral Mineral reserves Reporting accuracyContractual RisksCommercialRisksCreepingExpropriationOutrightExpropriationNaturalDisaster Expropriation Confisc

17、ation NationalizationWar & Civil DisturbancesFinancialRisksMarketRisksCivilMovements Environment Human rights CSR Religion Nationalism Globalization Interest rate Exchange rate Inflation rate Labor cost Product market Input market Salvage costProject Finance Credit Risks Overview 火災(zāi) 水災(zāi) 地震 火山 疾病 罷工 暴

18、動 恐怖活動 戰(zhàn)爭不可抗力政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 腐敗 法律/法規(guī) -不合法 專利權(quán)/許可權(quán) 特許權(quán) 稅賦 持股經(jīng)營 貨幣-不可轉(zhuǎn)換 派遣 優(yōu)先購買權(quán)/優(yōu)先權(quán) 合同違約 外籍員工限制 執(zhí)法 建造 場地 設(shè)備 技術(shù) 生產(chǎn)包銷協(xié)議 投入 運(yùn)營 動力 抵押 礦產(chǎn)儲量 報(bào)告的正確性合同風(fēng)險(xiǎn)商業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)間接征用征用自然災(zāi)害 征用 沒收 國有化戰(zhàn)爭及民間干擾金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 利率 匯率 通貨膨脹率 人工成本 產(chǎn)品市場 產(chǎn)出市場 回收成本項(xiàng)目融資的信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)-概況民間運(yùn)動 環(huán)境 人權(quán) 企業(yè)社會責(zé)任 宗教 民族主義 全球化3. Credit Risk Management信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理(Financial Risks金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn))3.

19、1 Cash Flow Analysis I現(xiàn)金流分析I(NPV and IRR)（凈現(xiàn)值法及內(nèi)部收益率）(1 + r ) (1 + r ) Net Present Value凈現(xiàn)值 (NPV) I Year年Freecash flowCashout flow付出現(xiàn)金流Financial Agreement (Closing)融資合同SankCosts沉沒成本t = 0t = 1t = 2t = 5t = 10t = 20t = 30t = 40Present Value現(xiàn)值Present value of cash out flow at t=2第2年付出現(xiàn)金的現(xiàn)值Present value

20、 of cash in flow at t=10第10年收到現(xiàn)金的現(xiàn)值PV =- CF2 2PV =CF10 10Example例Sank cost does not affectcash flow analysis becauseit is an existing fact regardlessof the investment decision(it is not incremental costs).沉沒成本不影響現(xiàn)金流分析，無論投資決策是否變化，它都不會變動（它不是增量成本）SalvageValue殘值(1 + r) CF10 (1 + r ) (1 + r ) - CF2 = - C

21、F0 + + + + + + - CF1 (1 + r ) (1 + r) (1 + r) CF42 (1 + r ) Net Present Value凈現(xiàn)值 (NPV) II 1210= 42t = 0CFt tPresent value of cash out flow at t=2第2年現(xiàn)金支出的現(xiàn)值Present value of cash in flow at t=10第10年現(xiàn)金流入的現(xiàn)值PV2 =- CF2 2PV10 =CF10 10PV0 = - CF0Present value of cash out flow at t=00年支出現(xiàn)金的現(xiàn)值Negative value

22、because theyare cash out flow負(fù)數(shù)，因?yàn)樗麄兪乾F(xiàn)金流出Positive value because theyare cash in flow正數(shù)，因?yàn)樗麄兪乾F(xiàn)金流入Net of all present value of cash out flow andall present value of cash in flow is: 所有現(xiàn)金流入的現(xiàn)值減去所有現(xiàn)金流出的現(xiàn)值 NPV = PV0 + PV1 + PV2 + PV3 + + PV4242As long as this value is positive, the project will producemor

23、e cash than necessary to repay debt and dividend.只要凈現(xiàn)值是正數(shù)，這個(gè)項(xiàng)目帶來的現(xiàn)金收入就能超過償還的借款和股利所需要的現(xiàn)金Net Present Value 凈現(xiàn)值(NPV) IIIImplication 含義Positive NPV凈現(xiàn)值為正數(shù): the project will generate more cash than the necessary amount to repay debt to banks and deliver dividend to shareholders, the excess cash solely to

24、the projects shareholders.該項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金將超過用于償還銀行債務(wù)及向股東支付股利的現(xiàn)金，超過部分的現(xiàn)金僅僅屬于該項(xiàng)目的股東。Zero NPV凈現(xiàn)值為零: the project will generate exactly the necessarily amount of cash to repay debt to the banks and deliver dividend to shareholders. 該項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金正好可以用于償還銀行債務(wù)及向股東支付股利。Negative NPV凈現(xiàn)值為負(fù)數(shù): the project cannot generate cas

25、h to repay debt to banks and deliver dividend to shareholders. 該項(xiàng)目不能產(chǎn)生足夠的現(xiàn)金償還銀行債務(wù)并向股東支付股利。Weak point of NPV is that it produces only absolute values. 凈現(xiàn)值方法的缺點(diǎn)在于，它只能得出絕對數(shù) $1 million investment and $1 thousand investment could, theoretically, produce the same NPV values. 一百萬美金和一千美金的投資，理論上可以得出同樣的凈減值。Ba

26、sed on: Financial Management, Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2008(1 + r) Internal Rate of Return內(nèi)部收益率 (IRR)Method方法IRR is defined as the discount rate that assumes NPV is equal to zero. 內(nèi)部收益率是能使項(xiàng)目的凈現(xiàn)值等于零時(shí)的折現(xiàn)率。Implication含義IRR is useful when investors assess the project against their hurd

27、le rate, which is a cost of capital. IRR適用于當(dāng)投資者衡量項(xiàng)目是否能達(dá)到他們的最低預(yù)期回報(bào)率。IRR Hurdle Rate: the project will produce more cash than the necessary amount to repay debt and deliver dividend to shareholders.項(xiàng)目可以產(chǎn)生足夠的現(xiàn)金來償還債務(wù)并向股東支付股利。IRR = Hurdle Rate: the project will produce the exact amount of cash to comprom

28、ise investors cost of capital.項(xiàng)目正好可以產(chǎn)生足夠的現(xiàn)金來償還債務(wù)并向股東支付股利。Weak points of IRR內(nèi)部收益率方法的缺點(diǎn)It applies the projects IRR to the reinvestment of cash in flows它把項(xiàng)目的內(nèi)部收益率應(yīng)用到了現(xiàn)金流入的在投資上When there are more than one change from cash out-flow to cash-in flow, or from cash-in flow to cash out-flow in the projection,

29、 the value of IRR are more than one: calculator would simply indicate “error”如果現(xiàn)金支出和現(xiàn)金收入上有不止一個(gè)變化，IRR也會不知有一個(gè)：計(jì)算結(jié)果將會顯示：錯(cuò)誤IRR = = 0Nt = 0CFt tBased on: Financial Management, Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2008Future value of all cash in flows 所有現(xiàn)金流入的終值 Present value of all cash out flows 所有

30、現(xiàn)金流出的現(xiàn)值 Modified Internal Rate of Return 修正內(nèi)部收益率(MIRR) I Year年Freecash flow自由現(xiàn)金流Cashout flow現(xiàn)金流出Financial Agreement (Closing)融資合同SankCosts沉沒成本Present Value現(xiàn)值Future Value終值(1 + MIRR) = 42 Cost of capital資金成本Cost of capital資金成本 (1 + r ) t1 (1 + r ) N-tMethod方法MIRR is defined as the discount rate that

31、forces the present value of cash in flows (CIF) to equal the present value of cash out flows (COF).修正內(nèi)部收益率是能使項(xiàng)目的現(xiàn)金流入現(xiàn)值等于現(xiàn)金流出現(xiàn)值時(shí)的折現(xiàn)率Implication含義MIRR is better than IRR because it reinvest the cash-in flow by using the cost of capital which is more realistic. Thus, MIRR tells more accurate profitabil

32、ity of the project.修正內(nèi)部收益率方法優(yōu)于內(nèi)部收益率方法，因?yàn)樵摲椒ㄊ褂酶F(xiàn)實(shí)的資金成本把現(xiàn)金收入進(jìn)行再投資MIRR Hurdle Rate: the project will produce more cash than the necessary amount to repay debt and deliver dividend to shareholders.該項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金足以償還債務(wù)并向股東分紅MIRR is better than IRR because it allows more than one changes in plus and minus signs

33、 in cash flow projection. MIRR允許在加減的計(jì)算中存在一個(gè)以上的變化 = (1 + r ) NCIFt (1 + r ) Modified Internal Rate of Return修正內(nèi)部收益率(MIRR) II(1 + MIRR) FV of cash in flowst = 0NCOFt tt = 0N(1 + MIRR) N - tPV of cash out flows = NBased on: Financial Management, Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2008(1 + r) tP

34、rofitability Index 盈利能力指數(shù)(PI)Method方法PI is another way of using NPV by dividing PV of future cash flow by initial investment.盈利能力指數(shù)是把將來的現(xiàn)金流的現(xiàn)值除以初始投資的方法ImplicationPI tells the relative profitability of the project by indicating the value of the future cash flows par dollar of initial investment. When

35、 PI 1, the project should be accepted. When PI = 1, this basically means NPV = 0 and MIRR = Hurdle Rate.盈利能力指數(shù)顯示出一個(gè)項(xiàng)目相對于每一塊錢的初始投資可以獲得多少盈利。當(dāng)PI1時(shí)，該項(xiàng)目應(yīng)該被批準(zhǔn)。當(dāng)PI=0時(shí)，意味著凈現(xiàn)值=0并且修正內(nèi)部收益率=最低預(yù)期回報(bào)率。PI = = Initial investment PV of future cash flows42t = 4CFt (1 + r ) tt = 0CFt (1 + r ) t3PI = = Initial investmen

36、t PV of future cash flowsNt = 1CFt CF0Generally一般公式:For the example cash flow projection例如現(xiàn)金流預(yù)算:Based on: Financial Management, Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2008$100$500Comparing two projects with NPV and IRR使用凈現(xiàn)值和內(nèi)部收益率方法來比較兩個(gè)項(xiàng)目-$1000$100$300$400-$1000$600$400$300Project AProject BNPV:

37、 $78.82 IRR: 14.5%MIRR: 12.1% PI: 1.08NPV: $49.18 IRR: 11.8%MIRR: 11.3% PI: 1.05Cost of capital: 10%Cost of capital: 10%tt$200$100$300$400-$100$0NPVr %5%10%15%7.2%11.8%14.5%$49.18$78.82A conflict between NPV and IRR when凈現(xiàn)值和內(nèi)部收益率方法在交叉率之下產(chǎn)生分歧的情況:Project size differences exist項(xiàng)目規(guī)模存在差異Timing difference

38、s exist時(shí)間存在差異below crossover rate.Take NPV rather than IRR. The logic isThat NPV selects the project that addsmost to shareholders wealth.應(yīng)該選擇使用凈現(xiàn)值方法，因?yàn)閮衄F(xiàn)值方法能夠挑選出使股東收益最大化的項(xiàng)目Project AProject BCrossover rateBased on: Financial Management, Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2008NPV of FCF for t

39、he entire project lifeNPV of FCF during the life of the debtAnnual debt service (principal and interest payments)年償債額（本金+利息）Other Important Indicators其他重要指標(biāo)Debt service coverage ratio債務(wù)償付比率Loan life coverage ratio債務(wù)期內(nèi)的債務(wù)償付比率Project life coverage ratio項(xiàng)目期內(nèi)的債務(wù)償付比率Debt-to-equity ratio權(quán)益負(fù)債率=Outstanding

40、debt 總負(fù)債Annual FCF （每年現(xiàn)金流）Outstanding debt 總負(fù)債Outstanding equity 所有者權(quán)益Outstanding debt 總負(fù)債 or NPVP2 = - CF0 + + + Decreasing Debt/Equity Ratio遞減的權(quán)益負(fù)債率For calculating NPV for a project within a company or for a companys valuation, generally WACC (weighted average cost of capital) is used. 當(dāng)計(jì)算一個(gè)公司的某個(gè)項(xiàng)

41、目的凈現(xiàn)值或者計(jì)算一個(gè)公司的價(jià)值時(shí)，通常是用加權(quán)平均資金成本In case of project finance the outstanding debt constantly declines and debt/equity ratio keeps changing throughout the project life. 在進(jìn)行項(xiàng)目融資時(shí)，負(fù)債總是不斷降低的，在整個(gè)項(xiàng)目期間，負(fù)債權(quán)益率也始終保持變化。NPVP1 = - CF0 + + + + 1 + (Rf + a x Rp) NOPAT2 + tKDD2 NOPAT1 + tKDD1 1 + (Rf + a x Rp) (1 + WAC

42、Cn) CFn (1 + WACC2) CF2 (1 + WACC1) CF1 Issues on Cost of Capital 資金成本I12nin which weight of debt is constantly adjusted如果負(fù)債比重不斷降低：WACC = (weight debt x cost debt)(1 T) + (weight capital x cost equity)加權(quán)平均資金成本=(負(fù)債比率*債務(wù)成本)(1-稅率)+(權(quán)益比率*權(quán)益成本)12NOPAT: Net Operating Profit After Tax稅后凈收益, t: tax rate稅率,

43、KD: debt cost債務(wù)成本, D: debt outstanding負(fù)債, Rf: risk free rate無風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利率, a: asset beta, Rp: risk premiumTax shieldAdjustment稅盾調(diào)整(1 + WACC) CFn (1 + WACC) CF2 (1 + WACC) CF1 NPVC = - CF0 + + + + 12nBased on: Capital Cash Flows: A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Cash Flows, Richard S. Ruback, 2000Issues on

44、 Cost of Capital資金成本 IIReliability of CAPM in Project Finance Situation資本資產(chǎn)計(jì)價(jià)模型在項(xiàng)目融資中的可靠性Both NPVP1 and NPVP2 in the previous slide involve the concept of CAPM (capital asset pricing model) to get debt, equity and asset beta, which would not work appropriately in case of project finance for several

45、reasons:在上例中應(yīng)用了資本資產(chǎn)訂價(jià)模型的凈現(xiàn)值計(jì)算可能不能在項(xiàng)目融資中準(zhǔn)確應(yīng)用，原因如下A country where project is located may not have integrated/efficient market項(xiàng)目所在的國家可能不是一個(gè)綜合/有效率的市場Data would be not available for market risk premium由于市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)而無法得到數(shù)據(jù)An ideal instrument represents the risk free rate would not be available無風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利率可能無法得到CAPM m

46、ay not able to incorporate all risks associated with the project資本資產(chǎn)定價(jià)模型可能無法將所有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都和模型關(guān)聯(lián)起來CAPM does not consider asymmetric down side risks模型沒有考慮不對稱的下跌風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Required return on debt may different between construction and operating periods負(fù)債的要求回報(bào)期間可能與建設(shè)和運(yùn)營期間不一致What if there is single purchaser located in o

47、ther country?如果僅有的采購方在另一個(gè)國家What to do?怎么辦Based on: Project Finance, Aditya Agarwal and Sandeep Kaul3.2 Cash Flow Analysis現(xiàn)金流分析 II(Individual Cash Flows單個(gè)現(xiàn)金流)Analysis of Individual Cash Flows單個(gè)現(xiàn)金流分析FreeCashFlow自由現(xiàn)金流(FCF)Year年SalesRevenue銷售收入Year年Input cost投入成本Operating cost運(yùn)營成本Taxes稅Net investment凈投資

48、(in maintenance)ConstrucitonCosts建造成本FCF used for NPV (IRR) analysis自由現(xiàn)金流用于凈現(xiàn)值（內(nèi)部收益率）分析Anatomy of FCFfor project finance項(xiàng)目融資中的自由現(xiàn)金流Construction施工 IConstruction contracts建造合同F(xiàn)ixed price contract固定價(jià)格合同 (high premium/low risk, payment based on progress高溢價(jià)/低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，按進(jìn)度付款)Turn-key contract整套承包合同The contractor

49、 accepts full responsibility for delivering a fully operational facility on a date-certain, fixed price basis.承建商以固定的價(jià)格，負(fù)責(zé)所有的建設(shè)施工EPC contract 合同能源管理(engineering, procurement, and construction contract設(shè)計(jì)，采購，施工合同)Cost plus fee contract成本加固定費(fèi)用合同 (low premium/high risk, frequent payments低溢價(jià)/高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，頻繁付款)Cos

50、t plus fee contract with maximum price and incentive fee成本加固定費(fèi)用最高價(jià)格加獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)費(fèi)用合同Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2001Construction施工 IIMajor risks主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn) IIncrease in construction cost增加施工成本 (cost over-run成本超支)Unavailability of sufficient funds to complete con

51、struction沒有足夠資金完成施工Inability to the project company to pay increased debt service during operation, even if funded by debt公司在運(yùn)營期間，即使通過借新債也無法償還不斷增高的債務(wù)本息Risk mitigation風(fēng)險(xiǎn)緩解Turn-key contract整套承包合同Contractual undertakingsinfusion of additional equity, standby equity participants, contingency tranche in

52、construction loan, standby cost over-run funding agreements引入新的所有者權(quán)益，備用的權(quán)益投資者，建設(shè)貸款應(yīng)急部分，備用成本超支基金協(xié)議Escrow funds, contingency account代管基金，意外準(zhǔn)備金賬戶Delay in completion延期完工Increase in construction costs and in debt service costs增加施工成本和負(fù)債成本Delay in the scheduled flow of revenue to cover debt service and exp

53、enses延誤了收入進(jìn)度，而無法支付債務(wù)和費(fèi)用Breach of project contracts, such as fuel supply or off-take違反了項(xiàng)目合同，例如燃油供給或者生產(chǎn)包銷協(xié)議Risk mitigation風(fēng)險(xiǎn)緩解Turn-key contract整套承包合同Stated milestones tied to construction loan contract確立與在施工借款合同相符的里程碑Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 20

54、01Construction施工 IIIMajor risks主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn) IIProject performance at less guaranteed levels項(xiàng)目績效難以保證Breach of off-take contract/decrease in project revenue生產(chǎn)包銷協(xié)議的違約/項(xiàng)目收入的降低Increase in maintenance costs and input/utility costs增加了維護(hù)成本和購買/能源成本Inability to the project company to repay debt項(xiàng)目公司無法償付債務(wù)Risk mitigati

55、on風(fēng)險(xiǎn)緩解Performance liquidated damage to cover the loss用績效違約金來補(bǔ)償損失Third party guarantees such as letter of credit or performance bond (payment bond), when financially weak contractors當(dāng)施工方財(cái)務(wù)上困難時(shí)，可采取第三方保證例如信用證或履約保函（支付保函）Bid bond/warranty bond/retention bond投標(biāo)保函/質(zhì)量擔(dān)保/留置金保函Other risks其它風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Site acquisition

56、and construction related facilities項(xiàng)目調(diào)度和施工設(shè)備Equipment, building material, and utility supply設(shè)備，建造材料，電力供應(yīng)Labor/environmental issues 人工/環(huán)境問題Force majeure risks不可抗力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Risk mitigation風(fēng)險(xiǎn)緩解All risk contractors riks insurance承包商的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)保險(xiǎn)Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. H

57、offman, 2001Off-take Purchase 生產(chǎn)包銷采購IOff-take agreements生產(chǎn)包銷合同Take-or-pay contract 照付不議合同(a form of unconditional guarantee一種無條件擔(dān)保)the purchaser is required to pay for a certain amount (fixed cost), even the product is not delivered. The rest of the amount (variable cost) will be paid if the purchas

58、er wants to buy. 即便貨物還沒有發(fā)出，采購方也被要求支付一定金額（固定成本）。如果采購方需要購買，則需要支付剩下的金額（變動成本）Take-and-pay 提貨與付款合同(a form of conditional guarantee有條件擔(dān)保)the purchaser required to pay for a certain amount (fixed cost) for the product delivered, when the product meets the contract quality requirements.當(dāng)貨物達(dá)到了合同規(guī)定的質(zhì)量要求，采購方需要

59、支付一定金額（固定成本） Long-term sales agreements 長期銷售合同(obligation to purchase)typically one- to five-year agreement for the purchase and sale of specified quantities of the projects output. The purchaser has the obligation to purchase the contract quantity only if it is produced and delivered, and meet the

60、contract quality requirements.Off-take purchasers financial strength生產(chǎn)包銷采購方的財(cái)務(wù)優(yōu)勢Market for product or service (in the long run)產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)的市場（長期）Based on: The Law and Business of International Project Finance, Scott L. Hoffman, 2001Off-take Purchase生產(chǎn)包銷采購IIMerchant project 商業(yè)項(xiàng)目(Merchant facility)Merchant