未來(lái)10年持續(xù)看漲香港房地產(chǎn)（港股）

1、GlobalResearch17 April 2019Initiation of CoverageEquitiesHong Kong PropertyEquitiesReal EstateHong KongOnly half-way through the property price upcycleReal EstateHong KongProperty price upcycle for another decade; 5% upside for CCL by end-2019E After the decade-long upcycle in 2008-18, we expect the

2、 Hong Kong property price upcycle to continue for the next 10 years, driven by limited supply, rising population inflow due to HYPERLINK /shared/d25nk3irGRhnDz Greater Bay Area integration, and Chinas adoption of the common reportingstandard(CRS).Ouranalysisofhousingdemand,basedondemographicsand non

3、-local demand, suggests annual housing demand would stand at 60,000 units pa, mainly supported by non-local demand, compared with the governments long-term supplytargetof45,000units.AsHongKongdevelopersaretradingatanaverage40% NAV discount, compared with the 10-year (2008-18) average of 35%, we beli

4、eve investors remain sceptical and have not priced in the sustainability of high property prices. We like residential and retail, and are neutral onoffice.Greater Bay Area (GBA) + China adoption of CRS = More people flow into HK GBA integration should enhance integration among the 11 cities in the a

5、rea through improving software and hardware, lowering transaction costs and boosting economic activity. We believe this will benefit Hong Kong property. Hong Kong property also offersuniquevalueinoffshoreassetallocation(HongKongpropertyisaUSdollarasset andfreeofcapitalcontrols)forChinesehouseholds.C

6、hinasadoptionofCRSandthe January2019personalincometaxlawcouldattractmorepeopletoliveinHongKong toavoidstayingonthemainlandforover183daysandbecomingtaxresidentsthere.We prefer retail to office; further ramp-up of infrastructureWe like retail as we expect the opening of the two new infrastructure proj

7、ects and the new Liantang border crossing (opening in late-2019) to continue to boost visitor numbers to Hong Kong and retail sales. We are neutral on office as the tightening of outbound M&A by the Chinese government and the impact from US-Sino trade uncertaintiesmightslowdemandfromChinesecorporate

8、sexpansion.Butweremain long-termpositiveduetoincreasingeconomicactivityfromGBAintegration.Stock views: NWD and SHKP our are top picksWeinitiatecoverageof12propertycompanies.WehaveBuyratingsonSunHungKai Properties and Henderson Land Development for their abundant land reserves, and New World Developm

9、ent and CK Asset for their active capital management. On landlords, we are more positive than consensus on retail property as we think the market is underestimating visitor growth from new infrastructure ramp-up, and rate WharfRealEstateInvestmentBuy.WedowngradeLinkREITfromBuytoNeutral.Figure 1: Hon

10、g Kong property sector coverage universe and preferencesJohn Lam,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:john-za.lam +852-29716358MarkLeung HYPERLINK mailto:mark.leung +852-29718636Michael Associate Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:michael-a.xu +852-29715573Cindy ChenAssociateAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:cindy-zb.chen +852-297183

11、96Most preferredMost preferredLeast preferredMost preferredLeast preferredDeveloperTickerNWD0017.HKSHKP0016.HKCK Asset 1113.HKenderson0012.HKWharf0004.HKKerry Prop0683.HKSino-Land0083.HKLandlordWharfREICTicker1997.HKCREIT2778.HKHLP0101.HKSwireProp1972.HKLINK0823.HKHKLandHKLD.SI0014.HKShare price13.3

12、4134.7067.9049.5522.7034.5514.22Shareprice58.206.6118.7832.6091.107.1142.45RatingBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyNeutralSellRatingBuyBuyBuyNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralPT17.20185.7090.6058.1028.8035.0013.00PT65.008.0025.0033.3099.007.6043.00% upside29%38%33%17%27%1%-9%upside12%21%33%2%9%7%1%Old PT17.20185.7090.6058.1

13、028.8035.0013.00OldPT65.008.0025.0033.3099.007.6043% change0%0%0%0%0%0%0%change0%0%0%0%0%0%0%19E P/E14.812.48.919.119EP/E14.021.816.420.229.513.814.019E P/BV0.600.690.730.750.490.490.6819EP/BV0.519E yield3.8%3.8%3.2%3.8%3.1%4.2%3.9%19Eyield4.5%4.2%4.7%3.1%3.5%3.1%4.3%Cons. % of Buy93%72%79%53%40%31%

14、63%Cons. %ofBuy69%56%73%69%47%64%33%Cons.%ofNeutral7%17%21%33%47%69%25%Cons.%ofNeutral31%44%13%23%47%14%53%Cons. % of Sell0%11%0%13%13%0%13%Cons. %ofSell0%0%13%8%6%21%13%Source: Datastream, UBS estimates HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesAsiaLim

15、ited. ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURESBEGIN ONPAGE161. UBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisContent

16、sOURTHESISINPICTURES4PIVOTALQUESTIONS10 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250017 Q:ArehighresidentialpropertypricesinHongKongsustainable?10 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250016 Q:Willgrade-AofficerentinHongKonghaveanotherupcyclein2019? HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 Q:Retail:AreChinesevisitorswillingtospendmoreinHongKong?WHATSPRICEDIN?

17、 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 Developer41 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 SunHungKaiProperties HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 CKAssetHoldings HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 HendersonLand Development HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 NewWorldDevelopment HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 SinoLand HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 WharfHoldings HYPERLINK l _

18、TOC_250007 KerryProperties HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Landlord102 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 Link Real EstateInvestmentTrust HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 SwireProperties110 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 WharfRealEstateInvestment118 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 HKLand HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 HangLungProperties HYPERLINK l

19、 _TOC_250000 HysanDevelopmentChampion Real EstateInvestmentTrustJohn Lam,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:john-za.lam +852-29716358MarkLeung HYPERLINK mailto:mark.leung +852-29718636Michael Associate Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:michael-a.xu +852-29715573Cindy ChenAssociateAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:cindy-zb.chen +85

20、2-29718396Hong Kong PropertyUBS THESIS MAP a guide to our thinking and whats where in this report HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 OURTHESISINPICTURESMOSTFAVOUREDLEAST FAVOUREDNWD, SHKP, CKA, HLD, and WREICSinoLandPIVOTALQUESTIONSQ: Are high residential property prices in Hong Kongsustainable?Yes. Although ho

21、using demand from locals is likely going to decline due to an aging population overthe next 10 years, we believe demand from non-locals will be more than enough to outweigh it. GivenlimitedhousingsupplyandGreaterBayAreaintegration,weforecastthehousingshortageto persistandwiden,supportinglong-termpro

22、pertyprices. HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 moreQ: Will grade-A office rent in Hong Kong have another upcycle in 2019?No. of a rental we grade-A to be flat in due to a Chinese weaker about of China-US duetorisingsupplyandoutsideHongKong.alowrateandsupplyarelikelytokeeprentsfromfalling. HYPERLINK l _bookmark

23、3 moreQ: Retail: Are Chinese visitors willing to spend more in Hong Kong?Yes. We expect retail sales growth in Hong Kong to reach to 7% in 2019, due to: 1) robust growth in visitor numbers; 2) the recovery of property and the stock market; and 3) an improving Chinese economy in H219, a result of pol

24、icy easing. We continue to favour consumer staples and daily necessitiesoverluxurygoods. HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 moreUBSVIEWWeexpectthedecade-longHongKongpropertypriceupcycletolastforthenext10years,drivenby limitedsupply,morepopulationinflowduetoGBAintegrationandChinasadoptionofCRS.Thereis high visib

25、ility for retail sales growth due to further ramp-up of traffic from the two newly opened infrastructure projects (high-speed railway HSR and Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge). However, we expect office rentals to face short-term headwinds from tightened onshore capital controls and uncertainties about

26、 US-Sino trade relations.EVIDENCEResidential: Our analysis of housing demand, based on demographics, suggests annual housing demand of 60,000 units per annum, supported mainly by demand from non-locals compared with the governments long-term supply target of 45,000 units.Office:TheHongKonggovernment

27、sBusinessTendencySurveysuggestsbusinessconfidencein Q119 fell to an eight-year low.Retail:AveragepassengerarrivalsonthenewlyopenedHSRandHongKong-Zhuhai-MacauBridge were 850,000-900,000 persons from November 2018 to February 2019. History shows that it could take about nine years for a new border con

28、trol point to fully ramp-up.WHATSPRICEDIN?Residential: We believe investors are sceptical about the sustainability of high property prices in Hong Kong, and also developers capability to replenish landbank at reasonable cost. For theNAV discounttonarrow,webelieveinvestorswouldhavetobelieveinapropert

29、ypriceupcycle(we believe), and/or in developers with active capitalmanagement.Office:The current valuation of office landlords suggests investors have already priced in: 1) weak short-term office demand from local and Chinese corporates; 2) resilient Central office rentals; and3) substantial supply

30、risk in Kowloon East.Retail: We believe the market has already priced in potential lower tourist spending per capita. However,investorsmightbeunderestimatingthegrowthinvisitornumbersduringtherampingupof newlyopenedinfrastructure. HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 moreGovt target supply pa (2019-28):45,000 unit

31、sGovt target supply pa (2019-28):45,000 units0(10,000)Incremental housing demand in Hong Kong (units)19971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019E2020E2021E2022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028ENetBirthMarriageNon-localtalents &graduatesOne-waypermit Sour

32、ce:CEIC,19971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019E2020E2021E2022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028EHong Kong PropertyUBS ResearchOURTHESISINPICTURES HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 return012.0010.00Long-term housing demand breakdown (2019-28 pa)UBS est, housing

33、demand per annum(2019-28):62,000Govt target supply per annum (2019-28): 45,000 unitsNetBirthMarriageNon-local talents One-waypermit& graduatesLandbank and farmland exposure by developersHenderson SHKPSinoNWDCKAKerryOur analysis of housing demand, based on demographics, suggests annual housing demand

34、 of 60,000units,mainlysupportedbynon-locals,compared with the governments long-term supply target of 45,000unitsOf the major developers, we believe Henderson, SHKP, and NWD would benefit the most from the property priceupcycle,giventheir:1)longlandbanklifespan;and2) large farmland reservesLandbankli

35、fespan(years)Attri framland site area/ landbank GFA- RHSOverall grade-A office rent QoQ vs overall HK Business Tendency Survey (BTS)20%15%10%5%0%-5%1Q1Q20083Q20081Q20093Q20091Q20103Q20101Q20113Q20111Q20123Q20121Q20133Q20131Q20143Q20141Q20153Q20151Q20163Q20161Q20173Q20171Q20183Q20181Q20193020100(10)(

36、20)The bearish local and Chinese corporate outlook could put pressure on office rental in 2019OverallGradeArentQoQOverall (BTS) - RHSForecast FY19 retail salesto grow +7%Forecast FY19 retail salesto grow +7%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan

37、-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19We forecast HK retail sales to increase 7% YoY in 2019, due to further ramp-up of traffic from the two newly opened infrastructure projects and the new Liantang bor

38、der crossing (to open in late-2019E)HK retail sales YoYWest Kowloon Express Rail Link monthly passenger arrivals (person)Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19Feb-192018 govt targetSep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19Feb-192018 govt target2018 maxcap2021 govt target2021 maxcap2031 govt target2031 maxcapWe

39、 believe there is substantial ramp-up potential for HSR, HK-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge, and Liantang border control point since it could take nine years for newly opened infrastructure to fully ramp up2101901701501301109070Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10

40、Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Nov-13 Jun-14 Jan-15 Aug-15 Mar-16 Oct-16 May-17 Dec-17 Jul-18 Feb-190%+1 SD: -30%Avg: -36%+1 SD: -30%Avg: -36%-1 SD: -43%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%We believe investors have not yet priced in the sustainably high residential property price in Hong KongCCLIndexHK developers NAV

41、discount - RHS-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%-35%-40%-45%12/1/20077/1/200812/1/20077/1/20082/1/20099/1/20094/1/201011/1/20106/1/20111/1/20128/1/20123/1/201310/1/20135/1/201412/1/20147/1/20152/1/20169/1/20164/1/201711/1/20176/1/20181/1/201910%+1 SD: -25%Avg: -31%+1 SD: -25%Avg: -31%-1 SD: -36%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%-

42、8%-10%The current office landlord valuation suggests investors have probably priced in a recovery in Central office rentsOverallgradeA-officerentQoQ-RHS HK office landlords NAVdiscount-10%-20%+1 SD: -30%40%30%Avg: -30%-40% -50%0%We think the stock market may have priced in a retail sales recovery, b

43、ut probably not further growth from-60%-70%-80% -1 SD: -10%-20%1/25/20088/25/20083/25/20091/25/20088/25/20083/25/200910/25/20095/25/201012/25/20107/25/20112/25/20129/25/20124/25/201311/25/20136/25/20141/25/20158/25/20153/25/201610/25/20165/25/201712/25/20177/25/20182/25/2019the ramping up of newly o

44、pened infrastructure, and the opening of the new Liantang border control point by late-2019HKretaillandlordsNAVdiscount(excl.Link)RetailsalesYoY-Sourcesfortheexhibitsabove:CEIC,companydata,Datastream,UBSestimatesSub-sectorRatingUBSviewMostandleastpreferredstockResidential Most preferred - We expect

45、the decade-long property upcycle to continue for the next 10 years, due to short supply, strong demand from non-locals (eg, mainland students and professionals)Forecastresidentialpricetoincrease5%byend2019vstheFeb2019levelGBAintegration:HKpropertyshouldbenefitfromstrongereconomicactivityinthe GBA.It

46、providesuniquevaluesfromanoffshoreassetallocationperspective(aUS$ asset)ChinasadoptionofCRSandthenewIndividualIncomeTaxLawin 1Jan 2019are positiveforHKpropertyintermsofbasicandinvestmentdemandPersistent supply shortage over the nextdecade: based on our analysis of demographicsandnon-localdemand,weex

47、pectannualhousingdemandof60kunits, vsgovernmentlong-termsupplytargetof45kunits,whichissubjecttodownsiderisk.Morepreferred:-NWD(0017.HK)- SHKP - (0016.HK)CK Asset(1113.HK)Henderson(0012.HK)Wharf (0004.HK)Less preferred:Sino Land(0083.HK)Kerry Prop(0683.HK)Less preferred:Less preferred:- Hysan (0014.H

48、K)- LINK (0823.HK)More preferred:Wharf REIC(1997.HK)HangLungProp(0101.HK)-WeforecastHKretailsalestorise7%andoverallprimeshoppingmallrents5%in 2019FurtherrampupofthetwoinfrastructureprojectsplustheopeningofLiantangborder controlpointbylate2019.FromtheexperienceofLokMaChouandShenzhenBay bordercontrolp

49、ointsinthefirstfiveyears(2007-11),weexpectfurtherincreasein visitornumbersfromthetwonewprojects,asthetargetvisitorsarefromareas differentfromthosefortheexistingcontrolpoints.Recoveryoflocalproperty&equitiesmarkets,aswellasRmbappreciation,should further support local and tourist spending.Favourableto

50、non-luxurylandlords.Weexpecttherobustgrowthinsame-dayvisitors willcontinuetodrivenon-luxuryretailsales.However,luxurysaleswilllikelycontinue tounderperformsincethesame-dayvisitorsspendingpercapitaismuchlowerthanovernight visitors (60%-70%).PreferredRetailOfficeNeutral-Weexpectoverallgrade-Aofficeren

51、ttobeflattishin2019EWeakeningofficedemandfromlocalandChinesecorporates,duetoslowing economy, uncertainties over Sino-US trade negotiation, and Chinese governments tightening of outbound M&A.HK East office landlords could continue to benefit from decentralisation (2019 rent: flattish to +3%), due to

52、improving infrastructures. While, the substantial supply increasemayfurtherpressureontherentalsofKowloonEastofficelandlords(2019 rent: flattish to-5%).Limited downside for Central office rent, given the continuing low vacancy rate and limited supply.Long-term positive on office demand, as a result o

53、f GBA integration and robust overseasassetsallocationdemandfromChinesehouseholds.More preferred:CREIT(2778.HK)Less preferred:HK Land(HKLD.SI)Swire Prop(1972.HK)Source: Company data, UBS estimatesNWD0017.HKBuy8%4%8%2%13%56%4%5%SHKP0016.HKBuy42%8% 5%3%4%9%10%CK Asset1113.HKBuy22%6%6%1%4% 1%26%Henderso

54、n0012.HKBuy55%6% 4%0%6%15%-4%Wharf0004.HKBuy8%0%0%1%1%51%26%14%Kerry Prop0683.HKNeutral22%0%0%10%5%28%32%3%Sino Land0083.HKSell17%13% 10%0%23%2%-35%LandlordRIC codeRatingWharf REIC1997.HKBuy0%24%72%1%2%0%0%0%CREIT2778.HKBuy0%58%30%12%0%0%0%0%HangLungProp0101.HKBuy6%13%32%5%0%0%48%-4%Swire Prop1972.H

55、KNeutral0%22%59%7%0%0%19%-6%LINK0823.HKNeutral0%1%62% 0%0%14%4%HK LandHKLD.SINeutral0%51%14%0%2% 4%8%Hysan0014.HKNeutral0%44%53%8%0%0%0%-4%HK dev*HKHK dev*HKRetail2020E EBITexposureHotelOthers*CN devCN leasingOthersOfficeDevelopersRIC code Rating* HK development only includes HK residential property

56、 developed for sale. For other property development (office & retail), we classify them into their respective categories in HK leasing.Source: UBS estimatesHK dev*OfficeHK dev*OfficeHK LeasingRetailGAV exposureHotelsCNdevCNleasingOthers*Farm land Listed subs/assoOthersDevelopersRIC codeRatingNWD0017

57、.HKBuy11%9%20%7%5%19%8%3%0%17%SHKP0016.HKBuy21%19%28%8%3%2%10%2%3%4%CK Asset1113.HKBuy11%13%12%4%10%10%1%1%3%35%Henderson0012.HKBuy17%14%16%4%2%2%7%6%0%32%Wharf0004.HKBuy17%3%0%3%2%26%30%0%0%20%Kerry Prop0683.HKNeutral20%4%7% 4%7%35%0%8%3%Sino Land0083.HKSell28%13%46%5%2%0%3%0%1%1%LandlordRIC codeRa

58、tingWharf REIC1997.HKBuy0%26%70%1%3%0%0%0%0%0%CREIT2778.HKBuy0%73%25%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%HangLungProp0101.HKBuy2%14%35%7%0%0%42%0%0%0%Swire Prop1972.HKNeutral1%44%13%11%5%0%23%0%0%4%LINK0823.HKNeutral0%1%67%17%0%0%14%0%0%0%HK LandHKLD.SINeutral0%53%14%0%0%7%6%0%0%20%Hysan0014.HKNeutral3%38%42% 0%0% 0%0%0%

59、Note: *HK leasing includes completed and rental properties under development. Others in HK leasing include residential, industrial properties and carparks.*HKdevelopmentonlyincludesHongKongresidentialpropertydevelopedforsale.Forotherpropertydevelopment(office&retail),weclassifythembytheirrespective

60、categories in HK leasing.Source: UBS estimatesJuly 2018 due to Chinas adoption of CRS and recent stabilisation of the stock market, we believe CCL has bottomed out and should reach our end-2019 target of 190, 5% upside potential from the 180 currently. We believe the widening housing shortage and GB