Q2北美大中型電力公用事業(yè)企業(yè)業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)覽

1、Utilities & Power2Q19 Large & Mid-Cap Earnings PreviewKey 2Q themes include regulatory activity (SO, ED, AGR, XEL, CNP), lingeringlegislative activity (DUK, FE, EXC), financing clarity (NI, FTS and possibly ATO), the Atlantic Coast and Mountain Valley pipeline projects, the late August PJM RPM aucti

2、on and potential FERC-related action here, and post-legislation CA wildfire company updates. This quarter is generally the least impactful of the year for utilities, and we expect little chance of annual guidance changes other than potentially AGR or FE. We see several companies falling near the bot

3、tom end of 2019 guidance and/or consensus being too high in the absence of a warm 3Q, including DUK, SO, D, NI, FTS and AGR. Nonetheless we see both DUK and NI as being well positioned near- term and into the quarter, and also favor CNP here. Despite YTD and 2Q underperformance, we still see reason

4、to sell AGR, and see risk near-term for PEG and FTS shares, and note we expect a poor quarter result for EVRG. See our HYPERLINK /#research.analyst_page%26analystId%3DE615429 7/11 Sector HYPERLINK /#research.analyst_page%26analystId%3DE615429 Strategy piece for our latest thoughts on utility valuati

5、on. Included are detailed comments and revised 2Q19 forecasts for our large and mid-cap coverage: AEP, AES, AGR, ATO, CNP, D, DUK, ED, EIX, ETR, EVRG, EXC, FE, FTS, NEE, NI, PEG, SO, SRE, XEL.Favor DUK, NI, CNP: We still see risks to the DUK story and see most of the YTD underperformance as justifie

6、d, but the 11% 2020 P/E discount to peers and 4.3% yield are noteable in a utility peer group perceived as expensive. We see little priced into shares for potential ACP construction resumption post biological opinion next month, ACP Supreme Court case acceptance or legislative success in North Carol

7、ina. Investors may view NI as less risky post a near-term NTSB report release, conclusion of the class action lawsuit and more clarity on equity and preferred stock financing needs this quarter. Additionally, any near-term asset sale traction could be a catalyst. For CNP we see a low bar for success

8、 with the quarterly result, and highlight that at 16.0 x 2020E the stock is the cheapest US, non-California stock in our coverage other than EXC. We expect management to focus on non-regulated business performance and settlement or other related progress in the ongoing HE rate case.Avoiding AGR, FTS

9、, PEG and see weak EVRG result: AGRs weak 2019 share performance does not lower our UW conviction, and at a 10% premium to peers on 2020E with downside to outer year consensus likely we still see heightened risk. We expect a strong chance of lowered 2019 guidance at 2Q results, with only a larger as

10、set sale gain assumption potentially buying time here, and await the annual dividend increase declaration as soon as this week. North of the border, we see risk to the print for FTS despite favorable yoy FX, and remain well below 2019 consensus. We note upcoming rating agency commentary may drive hi

11、gher equity commentary at the September analyst day, and that forthcoming IRS anti-hybrid rule finalization appears to be a material risk to earnings. We also are hesitant on PEG near-term driven in-part by our expectation of a disappointing 2Q result. Post-2Q, we see uphill battles in both the FERC

12、/PJM RPM reform conversation in NJ and the decoupling negotiations tied to CEF spending. We remain OW on EVRG shares but note our well below consensus 2Q forecast, driven by weather and O&M timing.Utilities and Power Christopher Turnure AC (1-212) 622-5696 HYPERLINK mailto:christopher.turnure christ

13、opher.turnureBloomberg JPMA TURNURE Richard W Sunderland(1-212) 622-2869 HYPERLINK mailto:richard.w.sunderlandiii richard.w.sunderlandiiiPeter Giannuzzi Jr.(1-212) 622-4214 HYPERLINK mailto:peter.giannuzzijr peter.giannuzzijrJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCSee page 66 for analyst certification and importa

14、nt disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single facto

15、r in making their investment decision. HYPERLINK / Equity Ratings and Price TargetsCompanyTickerMkt Cap ($ mn)Price CCYPrice Rat Curing PrevCur Price TaEnd Daterget Prev EndDateAES Corp.AES US11,392.36USD17.08OWn/c20.00Dec-1919.00n/cAmerican Electric PowerAEP US44,627.19USD90.25OWn/c93.00Dec-1990.00

16、n/cAtmos EnergyATO US12,118.55USD106.46OWn/c115.00Dec-19109.00n/cAvangrid, IncAGR US15,463.94USD49.93UWn/c46.00Dec-1945.00n/cCenterPoint Energy, Inc.CNP US14,550.48USD28.87OWn/c33.00Dec-1932.00n/cConsolidated Edison Inc.ED US28,734.08USD88.96UWn/c88.00Dec-1986.00n/cDominion Energy IncD US61,457.50US

17、D77.50Nn/c77.00Dec-1975.00n/cDuke Energy Corp.DUK US64,484.90USD88.70Nn/c91.00Dec-1988.00n/cEdison InternationalEIX US23,099.28USD70.64Nn/c73.00Dec-19n/cn/cEntergy Corp.ETR US19,963.81USD103.87Nn/c104.00Dec-1997.00n/cEvergy IncEVRG US14,969.44USD61.14OWn/c63.00Dec-1961.00n/cExelon Corp.EXC US47,686.

18、32USD49.06Nn/c51.00Dec-19n/cn/cFirstEnergyFE US23,354.58USD43.41Nn/c44.00Dec-1942.00n/cFortis Inc.FTS CN17,226.11CAD52.07Nn/c52.00Dec-1950.00n/cNextEra Energy Inc.NEE US100,607.90USD208.73OWn/c212.00Dec-19201.00n/cNiSource Inc.NI US10,943.82USD29.34OWn/c30.00Dec-1929.00n/cPG&E Corp.PCG US10,223.80US

19、D19.40Nn/c14.00Dec-19n/cn/cPublic Service Enterprise GroupPEG US30,698.85USD60.55Nn/c62.00Dec-1961.00n/cSempra EnergySRE US38,749.53USD139.89Nn/c136.00Dec-19133.00n/cThe Southern CompanySO US58,175.15USD55.67UWn/c53.00Dec-1951.00n/cXcel EnergyXEL US31,372.80USD60.80OWn/c63.00Dec-1961.00n/cSource: Co

20、mpany data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 12 Jul 19.Table 1: JPM Utilities Coverage Estimates vs. Consensus, Y/Y Growth, and Guidance SummaryTickerQ218 EPSActualConsQ219 EPSJPMeGuidanceQ219 vs. Q218Annual GrowthConsJPMe2018 EPSActualCons2019 EPSJPMeGuidance19 vs

21、. 18 GrowthConsJPMeAEP1.011.000.94n/a-1.3%-6.5%3.90-4.204.5%5.4%AES0.250.290.26n/a14.8%4.9%1.241.331.341.28-1.407.3%8.0%AGR0.410.400.35n/a-2.5%-14.7%2.212.262.152.25-2.402.1%-2.5%ATO1.570.721.82n/a-53.9%16.4%4.004.334.304.25-4.358.3%7.5%CNP0.300.330.30n/a8.3%-1.5%1.541.651.631.60-1.706.6

22、%5.4%D0.860.810.790.70-0.80-5.1%-7.3%4.05-4.403.7%1.5%DUK0.930.980.93n/a5.2%0.2%4.724.934.844.80-5.204.4%2.6%ED0.610.610.58n/a1.0%-5.3%4.334.364.324.25-4.450.6%-0.2%EIX0.851.091.06n/a28.1%24.2%4.154.674.834.72-4.9212.5%16.4%ETR1.421.341.47n/a-5.8%3.4%5.295.305.345.10-5.500.1%0.9%EVRG0.56

23、0.710.55n/a26.6%-1.5%n/a2.922.892.80-3.00EXC0.710.620.620.55-0.65-12.0%-12.9%23.00-3.300.9%-0.1%FE0.620.610.620.55-0.65-2.4%0.3%2.592.542.452.45-2.75-1.9%-5.1%FTS0.570.610.58n/a6.8%3.1%2.512.632.51n/a4.6%-0.2%NEE2.112.282.21n/a8.2%4.5%7.708.398.378.00-8.509.0%8.7%NI0.070.070.04n/a-6.1%-41

24、.9%1.301.301.271.27-1.330.3%-1.9%PCG1.160.991.01n/a-14.7%-13.0%4.003.853.74n/a-3.8%-6.4%PEG0.640.660.62n/a2.8%-3.5%3.123.263.283.15-3.354.5%5.1%SO0.800.710.740.71-11.3%-7.8%3.073.032.982.98-3.10-1.2%-2.9%SRE1.351.291.15n/a-4.3%-15.0%5.576.046.075.70-6.308.5%8.9%XEL0.520.540.53n/a4.5%2.8%2.472.612.61

25、2.55-2.655.8%5.6%Source: Bloomberg, JPM EstimatesUS Q2 CDDs above normal, down YOYQ219 US cooling degree days were +12% versus normal and -11% YOY, with significant variation regionally from E N Central and W N Central (-17%, -10% versus normal) to South Atlantic and E S Central (+36%, +29% versus n

26、ormal). CDDs were broadly lower YOY with the exception of South Atlantic (+4%), and we note substantial declines across E N Central and W N Central (-43%, -44%).We note that following hotter than normal May weather (CDDs +26%), more impactful June CDDs were +3% versus normal and -17% YOY, as well as

27、 down YOY across all regions.Table 2: 2018-2019 US Cooling Degree Day & Heating Degree Day SummaryQ219 CDDQ219ActualQ218ActualNormY/Yvs. NormQ418 HDDQ418ActualQ417ActualNormY/Yvs. NormUS380428340-11%12%US1,5971,5001,6386%-3%New England769369-18%10%New England2,2902,1522,2726%1%Middle Atlantic1551891

28、40-18%11%Middle Atlantic2,0151,9532,0643%-2%E N Central164289197-43%-17%E N Central2,3142,2292,3164%0%W N Central236425263-44%-10%W N Central2,5722,3752,5128%2%South Atlantic7697385664%36%South Atlantic1,0239831,0584%-3%E S Central589626458-6%29%E S Central1,3481,2931,3774%-2%W S Central851899777-5%

29、10%W S Central92578689618%3%Mountain316412360-23%-12%Mountain1,9011,6241,96417%-3%Pacific111123150-10%-26%Pacific9528951,1456%-17%Q119 HDDQ119ActualQ118ActualNormY/Yvs. NormQ318 CDDQ318 ActualQ317ActualNormY/Yvs. NormUS2,2352,1322,2425%0%US96584276615%26%New England3,1962,9943,2197%-1%New England636

30、41634853%83%Middle Atlantic2,9342,8682,9682%-1%Middle Atlantic77255351140%51%E N Central3,2753,0693,2277%1%E N Central68650150237%37%W N Central3,6023,3383,3268%8%W N Central73764865014%13%South Atlantic1,3431,4211,523-5%-12%South Atlantic1,2661,1711,0778%18%E S Central1,6681,7491,895-5%-12%E S Cent

31、ral1,1981,02199717%20%W S Central1,1901,1531,2703%-6%W S Central1,5501,4421,4177%9%Mountain2,3912,1932,3219%3%Mountain9999408106%23%Pacific1,5781,3611,41916%11%Pacific7507465061%48%Source: NOAAFigure 1: 2020 Forward ATC Power Prices$49$47$45$43$41$39$37$35$33$31$29$27$25Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18 Apr-18Jul-

32、18Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19 PJM WestNew EnglandPJM EastERCOT-HoustonFigure 2: 2021 Forward ATC Power Prices$49$47$45$43$41$39$37$35$33$31$29$27$25Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19 PJM-WestNew EnglandPJM-EastERCOT-HoustonSource: SNL; ATC = around the clockSource: SNL; ATC = around

33、 the clockFigure 3: 2020 Forward Natural Gas Prices$5Nat Gas Price ($/MMBtu)$5$4$4$3$3$2Jul-17Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19Jul-19 TCO Pool (PJM-West)Algonquin Citygate (New England)TranscoZ6 NonNY (PJM-East)Henry Hub (ERCOT-Houston)Figure 4: 2021 Forward Natural Gas Prices$5Nat Gas

34、Price ($/MMBtu)$5$4$4$3$3$2Jul-17Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19Jul-19 TCO Pool (PJM-West)Algonquin Citygate (New England)TranscoZ6 NonNY (PJM-East)Henry Hub (ERCOT-Houston)Source: SNLSource: SNLFigure 5: 2020 Forward Implied Peak Heat Rates19,00018,00017,000Heat Rate (Btu)16,00015,00

35、014,00013,00012,00011,00010,0009,000Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19Figure 6: 2021 Forward Implied Peak Heat Rates19,00018,00017,000Heat Rate (Btu)16,00015,00014,00013,00012,00011,00010,0009,000Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19Source: SNLPJM

36、-WestNew EnglandPJM-EastTexasSource: SNLPJM-WestNew EnglandPJM-EastTexasFigure 7: JP Morgan North American Utilities & Power Comparables TableRegulated Electric & Gas UtilitiesPTPriceCapEVDebt to Yield Payout EPS ForecastP/E MultipleEPS GrowthRating Ticker Company$bn$bnCap2019E 2019E 2019E 2020E 202

37、1E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021EOWAEPAmerican Electric Power Co Inc9390.2544.571.857%3.0%65%4.164.394.7021.720.519.25.4%5.5%6.9%OWXELXcel Energy Inc6360.8031.350.359%2.7%62%2.612.792.9723.321.820.45.6%6.9%6.7%OWEVRGEvergy Inc6361.1414.923.946%3.2%67%2.893.193.3515.6%10.2%5.0%OWATOA

38、tmos Energy Corp115106.4612.516.043%2.0%49%4.304.645.0024.722.921.37.5%7.9%7.7%OWNINisource Inc3029.3410.921.061%2.7%63%1.271.331.4623.022.120.0-1.9%4.4%10.1%OWSJISouth Jersey Industries Inc3233.393.15.971%3.5%107%1.081.551.7530.921.619.1-21.4%43.1%12.9%NDUKDuke Energy Corp9188.7064.6126.257%4.2%77%

39、4.845.155.3918.3%6.5%4.5%NFEFirstenergy Corp4443.4123.143.474%3.5%62%2.452.352.4717.718.517.6-5.1%-4.3%5.2%NEIXEdison International7370.6423.042.555%3.5%51%4.834.534.7214.615.615.016.4%-6.2%4.2%NFTSFortis Inc5252.0622.550.457%3.5%73%2.512.592.7220.820.119.1-0.2%3.3%5.2%NETREntergy Corp104

40、103.8719.738.567%3.5%69%5.345.495.8219.518.917.913.3%2.9%6.0%NEMAEmera Inc4953.9512.728.767%4.4%87%2.742.742.8919.719.718.7-4.9%0.1%5.3%NPCGPG&E Corp1419.4010.332.963%0.0%0%3.744.164.3-6.4%11.1%4.9%NPORPortland General Electric Co5354.524.97.350%2.8%62%2.462.572.673.6%4.5%4.1%N

41、ACIAltaGas Canada Inc1925.040.81.451%3.8%68%1.401.461.5117.9%4.0%3.7%UWSOSouthern Company5355.6757.9107.161%4.4%82%2.983.113.2218.717.917.3-2.9%4.5%3.5%UWEDConsolidated Edison8888.9629.650.555%3.3%69%4.324.564.7220.619.518.8-0.2%5.5%3.6%UWALEAllete Inc8086.864.55.741%2.7%65%3.623.814.0824

42、.022.821.37.2%5.2%6.9%UWSRSpire Inc7754%2.8%64%3.713.763.9222.922.621.7-0.1%1.3%4.2%Mostly Regulated Electric Peers20.456%3.2%65%20.920.018.91.9%4.7%5.5%S&P 500%10.9%0.0%Hybrid Utilities, Power & DiversifiedsPTPriceCapEVDebt toYieldPayoutEPS ForecastP/E MultipleEV/EBITDARating

43、Ticker Company$bn$bnCap2019E2019E2019E 2020E2021E2019E 2020E2021E2019E 2020E2021EOWNEENextera Energy212208.73100.0142.950%2.4%60%8.378.969.8124.923.321.313.812.411.4OWCNPCenterpoint Energy3328.8714.529.653%4.0%71%1.631.811.9217.816.08.2OWAESAES Corp2017.0811.332.875%3.2%41%1.341.421.4912.7

44、12.07.4NDDominion Energy7777.5062.2105.361%4.7%89%4.114.384.6618.917.716.612.311.510.9NEXCExelon Corp5149.0647.687.652%3.0%47%3.123.073.0315.716.09.5NSRESempra Energy136139.8938.467.557%2.8%64%6.076.557.4223.121.418.916.313.912.8NPEGPublic Service Enterprise6260.5530.646.152%3.1%

45、57%3.283.503.6218.517.316.711.010.810.5NAQNAlgonquin Power & Utilities1012.466.110.745%4.3%95%0.570.590.6221.921.320.014.813.712.5NALAAltaGas Ltd1819.935.515.557%4.8%103%0.931.181.1921.416.816.88.012.111.6NHEHawaiian Electric Industries3744.584.95.548%2.9%66%1.942.122.2323.021.020.09.69.08.6NBKHBlac

46、k Hills Corp7779.974.88.058%2.6%58%3.543.703.8922.621.620.612.811.911.4UWAGRAvangrid Inc4649.9315.422.429%3.6%83%2.152.362.49YieldCosPTPriceCapEVDebt toDividend ForecastYieldDividend GrowthPrice/CAFDRating TickerCompany$bn$bnCap2019E 2020E2021E2019E2020E2021E2019E 2020E 2021E 2

47、019E 2020ENNEPNextera Energy Partners LP4750.107.811.938%2.032.332.654.1%4.6%5.3%14.6% 14.6% 14.0%22.117.2NPEGIPattern Energy Group Inc2223.092.03.551%1.691.691.697.3%7.3%7.3%0.0% 0.0% 0.0%11.79.6Source: Bloomberg: Price, Cap, EV, Debt to Cap; JPMorgan estimates: PT, Dividend, EPS, CAFD, and multipl

48、e derivations thereof JPM Indicies exclude companies being acquired; JPM SMID Index includes $10Bn mkt cap electric, gas & diversified utilities Price Targets all Dec 2019, all forecasts for company fiscal year.ACI CN, ALA CN, EMA CN and FTS CN metrics are denominated in $CAD. Priced 7/12/2019AES Co

49、rp.OverweightAES Corporation (AES;AESUS)Company DataYear-end Dec ($)FY18AFY19EFY19EFY20EFY20EFY21EFY21EShares O/S (mn)667(Prev)(Curr)(Prev)(Curr)(Prev)(Curr)52-week range ($)18.52-12.71Revenue ($ mn)10,73610,96910,97311,21511,20311,56311,537Market cap ($ mn)11,392.36Adj. EBITDA ($ mn)3,7673,4913,489

50、3,7813,7694,1614,135Exchange rate1.00EBITDA margin35.1%31.8%31.8%33.7%33.6%36.0%35.8%Free float(%)99.0%Adj. net income ($ mn)8258788959509509999923M - Avg daily vol (mn)5.79Adj. EPS ($)1.241.321.341.421.421.501.493M - Avg daily val ($96.9BBG EPS ($)1.21-1.33-1.44-1.55mn)Reported EPS ($)1.480.840.840

51、.940.941.091.08Volatility (90 Day)19DPS ($)0.530.550.550.580.580.610.61IndexS&P 500Dividend yield3.1%3.2%3.2%3.4%3.4%3.6%3.6%BBG BUY|HOLD|SELL5|6|0Adj. P/E13.813.012.712.012.011.411.5Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.Q219 Expectations:We will monitor additions to the renewable b

52、acklog and any announcements regarding future LNG opportunities. AES has continued to emphasize their LNG strategy, which now includes opportunities in Vietnam where the government has approached management to build a 450 TBTU facility with 2 GWs of combined cycle gas plants attached. AES has receiv

53、ed a MOU to build the storage facility and is currently waiting for a MOU for the CCGT facilities. The project represents another opportunity to grow their LNG footprint following the 1Q disclosure of a new contract to sell LNG in the Caribbean.For the quarter, AES is likely to provide the usual upd

54、ates on Alto Maipo (72% complete vs total project 78% complete as of 1Q earnings), Southland Repowering (90% complete as of 1Q earnings), and the OPGC 2 plant in India. At the time of the 1Q call, the OGPC 2 plant was in final testing stages and was likely placed in service during 2Q. AES has reiter

55、ated their long-term 7-9% EPS and cash flow growth guidance and continues to target an investment grade credit rating by 2020.We model $0.26 EPS in 2Q19, up 4.9% yoy, and $1.34 for 2019, up 8.0%, versus$1.28-$1.40 company guidance. Positive yoy drivers include DPL and IPL rate relief, cost cuts and

56、lower interest expenses. Longer term, our 2021 estimates do not include the impact of the Ohio DMR extension (12c negative), but are partly offset by ongoing cost cutting initiatives that includes the incremental $100 million of run rate cost savings announced during 1Q. We continue to include DMR r

57、evenues through their current scheduled expiration in late 2020.OverweightAmerican Electric PowerAmerican Electric Power (AEP;AEP US)Company DataShares O/S (mn)494Year-end Dec ($)FY17AFY18AFY19E(Prev)FY19E(Curr)FY20E(Prev)FY20E(Curr)FY21E(Prev)FY21E(Curr)52-week range ($)91.99-68.13Revenue ($ mn)15,

58、43616,19717,29917,30618,08318,08518,44518,442Market cap ($ mn)44,627.19Adj. EBITDA ($ mn)5,5685,3185,9485,9556,4276,4296,7946,790Exchange rate1.00EBITDA margin36.1%32.8%34.4%34.4%35.5%35.6%36.8%36.8%Free float(%)99.9%Adj. net income ($ mn)1,8081,9452,0492,0612,1772,1802,3392,3373M - Avg daily vol (m

59、n)2.20Adj. EPS ($)3.673.994.394.704.703M - Avg daily val ($191.4BBG EPS ($)3.623.93-4.13-4.40-4.68mn)Reported EPS ($)3.673.994.394.704.70Volatility (90 Day)14DPS ($)2.392.532.722.722.882.883.063.06IndexS&P 500Dividend yield2.6%2.8%3.0%3.0%3.2%3.2%3.4%3.4%BBG BUY|HOLD|SELL10|1

60、0|1Adj. P/E24.622.921.821.720.620.519.219.2Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: Bloomberg above denotes Bloomberg consensus estimates.Q219 Expectations:AEP continues to evaluate PSO and SWEPCO wind RFPs and will likely select winning bids in July. Once projects have been cho