全球能源轉(zhuǎn)型系列：公用事業(yè)規(guī)模的太陽能開發(fā)

1、Global Research31 March 2020EquitiesGlobal Energy Transition Call Series Expert Call: Utility scale solar development; Slide deck & transcriptWe hosted a call with Intersect PowerWe hosted a call with Sheldon Kimber, CEO and Founder of Intersect Power. On the call we discussed key trends in U.S. uti

2、lity-scale renewables development. The call was part of our ongoing UBS Energy Transition Call Series which aims to deepen clients understanding of the on-going energy transition. To schedule a call with Jon Windham click here.Key takeaways from the presentationThe views expressed below are those of

3、 the speaker and do not necessarily reflect those of UBS.Intersect Power operates a small 20 person team focused on developing a small number of large utility scale projects. Intersect currently has a 3GW project pipeline of which 1.5-2GW are expected to be constructed. Safe harboring transformers i

4、n order to qualify for 30% ITC on 1.8GW of projects (60% of pipeline). Projects focused in TX and CA markets with adequate land, deep & liquid power markets, good solar resource, and demand for power offtake.CAISO market outlook: Duck curve now at its worst but not causing solar deployments to scale

5、 back. Arbitrage opportunity for 2-4hr storage is very large. Benefits of regionalization across western interconnect to integrate CA solar w/ southwest solar and northwest wind and hydro have been undersold. Expect duck curve can be improved dramatically providing more solar runway.ERCOT market out

6、look: Solar is coming. Lots of room for solar growth, not anywhere near setting a price point in TX. Good market committed to underlying economic principals. Solar produces during peak price hours (hot day, peak cooling demand) favoring the solar generation profile. Wont see negative bidding for sol

7、ar due to no PTC. ITC step down in 2023 will protect early entrants.Module supply: Module market is tight & import tariffs drive contract uncertainty. Relying on reputable quality companies (FSLR). Bifacial will become more competitive but not enough volume in market currently.Intersect believes lon

8、g-term power offtake agreements provide inferior risk adjusted returns. Shorter tenor contracts more robust to merchant downside risk due to relatively better near-term visibility to merchant market. Intersect prefers a higher upfront (short duration) PPA w/ near-term merchant risk vs. a materially

9、lower long- term PPA w/ greater merchant uncertainty at end of term.Slide deck & transcript enclosedIn this note we republish the slide deck from the call, courtesy of Intersect Power. A transcript from our call follows the slide deck.EnergyGlobalJon Windham, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:jon.windham

10、jon.windham+1-617-478-4711Daniel Ford, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:dan.ford dan.ford+1-212-713-2224Sam Arie Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:sam.arie sam.arie+44-20-7567 1107William Grippin, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:william.grippin william.grippin+1-617-478 4740 HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentr

11、esearchThis report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 57. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that cou

12、ld affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.April Call ScheduleRegistration links below, all calls held at 11am Eastern Time, except as notedEnergy Transition Series call scheduleApr 1: The Tax Equity Mar

13、ket w/ Akin Gump: https:/bit.ly/2JpJFBUApr 2: Cloud based EV charge networks w/ Blink: https:/bit.ly/3asSjviApr 7: Energy storage & energy resiliency w/ OutBack: https:/bit.ly/2UgUnRtApr 14: Leveraging EVs for fleet sustainability w/ Motiv Power:https:/bit.ly/2WJNf1KApr 16: Integrating EVs and the g

14、rid w/ Mobility House: https:/bit.ly/2UhT4SmApr 28: Energy storage business outlook w/ esVolta: https:/bit.ly/39nvsQhManagement Series call scheduleApr 6: PFAS impacts on waste industry w/ US Ecology: https:/bit.ly/3dqvsCuApril Call DetailsEnergy Expert: The tax equity market w/ Akin Gump. Wednesday

15、, April 1, 2020 11:00am ET. We will discuss the ABCs of the tax equity market and current market conditions in light of the COVID-19 outbreak. Pre-register here for access code and calendar reminder.Energy Leaders: Cloud based EV charge networks w/ Blink. Thursday, April 2, 2020 11:00am ET. Blink is

16、 one of the largest owner/operators of EV charging stations in the U.S. On the call we will discuss how Blinks cloud connected EV charge network can enable easier charge station access and help accelerate the pace of EV adoption. Pre-register here for access code and calendar reminder.Management: PF

17、AS impacts on the waste industry w/ US Ecology. Monday, April 6, 2020 11:00am ET. Join us for a call with ECOL senior leadership to discuss the industry impacts and outlook in light of the evolving PFAS regulatory environment. Pre-register here for access code and calendar reminder.Energy Leaders: E

18、nergy storage & energy resiliency w/ OutBack Power. Tuesday, April 7, 2020 11:00am ET. OutBack Power designs and manufactures power conversion equipment to enable renewable energy, backup storage, and mobile power applications. On the call we will discuss the factors driving businesses and homeowner

19、s to seek resilient, flexible and independent energy alternatives and how energy storage solutions coupled with sophisticated power conversion electronics work together to provide the foundations of uninterrupted connectivity and true energy resiliency. Pre- register here for access code and calenda

20、r reminder.Energy Leaders: Leveraging EVs to meet fleet sustainability objectives w/ Motiv Power. Tuesday, April 14, 2020 11:00am ET. Motiv Power designs and builds medium duty electric vehicle chassis. On the call we will discuss the market outlook for EV fleet conversion and how electric medium- d

21、uty trucks and busses can help meet fleet sustainability and business objectives. Pre-register here for access code and calendar reminder.Energy Leaders: Integrating EVs for grid storage w/ The Mobility House. Thursday, April 16, 2020 11:00am ET. Mobility House integrates EV batteries into the power

22、 grid enabling new opportunities for the energy transition. On the call we will discuss the market outlook and latest developments in EV vehicle-to-grid technology. Pre-register here for access code and calendar reminder.Energy Leaders: Energy storage business outlook w/ esVolta. Tuesday April 28, 2

23、020 11:00am ET. esVolta developes, designs, constructs, and finances energy storage projects for electric utilities and large energy users. On the call we will discuss the outlook for grid-tied battery storage. Pre-register here for access code and calendar reminder.Video replays from previous calls

24、Engaging corporates on climate change w/ UBS Asset Management: linkU.S. renewable cost, performance, and value w/ LBNL: linkClimate change impacts w/ EPA: linkEV fleet charging as a service w/ AMPLY: linkCasella Waste (CWST) Future of recycling: linkThe trillion dollar EV opportunity w/ Chanje: link

25、Transcripts & slide decks from previous callsEnergy StoragePotential for batteries to provide peaking capacity w/ NREL: linkRate design impact on behind the meter storage w/ LBNL: linkThe economics of grid storage w/ Ascend Analytics: linkThe US storage market w/ SEPA: linkIron flow batteries w/ ESS

26、: linkVanadium flow batteries w/ UET: linkLiquid air energy storage w/ Highview Power: linkPotentially disruptive battery tech w/ Ionic Materials: linkScalable, safe, long-duration energy storage w/ Eos: linkFlywheel energy storage w/ Teraloop: linkResidential energy storage w/ Cinnamon Energy: link

27、Grid connected batteries w/ NantEnergy: linkScalable plug & play battery storage w/ SolPad: linkWind, solar and other renewable generationGlobal renewables outlook w/ IEA: linkWind & solar growth, cost, & value w/ LBNL: linkEvolution of renewable PPAs w/ RES Group: linkDigitally enabled PPAs w/ WePo

28、wer: linkU.S. distributed solar trends w/ Lawrence Berkeley Labs: link1Q19 U.S. wind market update w/ AWEA: linkCost competitiveness of US wind & solar w/ Lawrence Berkeley Labs: linkU.S. solar outlook w/ NREL: link1Q19 solar market update w/ NREL: linkOff-shore wind w/ BOEM: linkUsing data to drive

29、 down wind costs w/ NREL: linkDistributed wind generation w/ American Wind: linkThe outlook for US wind demand w/ AWEA: linkOutlook for UK waste-to-energy w/ Tolvik: linkCommunity solar w/ Ecogy Energy: linkThermal solar & storage w/ SolarReserve: linkRenewable cost decline trends & outlook w/ NREL:

30、 linkAssessing solar project risk w/ kWh Analytics: linkAirborne wind energy w/ Ampyx Power: linkHigh altitude kite wind power w/ SkySails: linkTethered aircraft wind energy w/ Twing Tec: linkFlexible CIGS solar modules w/ Sunflare Solar: linkNuclear trends and outlook w/ World Nuclear Association:

31、linkSolar system modeling & design w/ Aurora Solar: linkThe Energy TransitionEvolving US energy system w/ NREL: linkLong-term forecast for energy transition w/ DNVGL: link2019 Annual Energy Outlook w/ EIA: linkThe geopolitics of the energy transition w/ IRENA: linkCorporate renewable demand w/ RMI:

32、linkAviation industry climate change strategy w/ IATA: linkFuture of alternative fuel in the aviation industry: linkTransactive energy systems w/ SEPA: linkClean energy portfolio economics w/ RMI: linkClean energy portfolios and stranded asset risk w/ RMI: linkCommunity choice aggregation w/ NREL: l

33、inkCarbon capture and storage w/ Global CCS Institute: linkNatural gas powered vehicles w/ NGVAmerica: linkBlockchain systems for the energy sector w/ Electron: linkElectric Vehicle ChargingEV fleet charging as a service w/ AMPLY Power: linkThe trillion dollar EV opportunity w/ Chanje: linkThe bull

34、case for EV penetration w/ ReThinkX: linkWireless EV charging w/ Momentum Dynamics: linkWireless EV charging update w/ Momentum Dynamics: linkWireless EV charging w/ HEVO: linkEV fast charging w/ EVgo: linkEV infrastructure w/ eCarUp: linkOS for EV charge networks w/ GreenFlux: linkWireless EV charg

35、ing w/ WiTricity. linkOperating systems for EV charge networks w/ GreenFlux: linkSmart EV charging w/ eMotorWerks: linkSmart HomeSmart home energy w/ Sense: linkClimate ChangeClimate change w/ UN: linkClimate assessment w/ EPA: linkClimate change public opinion w/ Yale: linkEngaging corporates on cl

36、imate change w/ UBS Asset Management: linkManagement callsSolaredge (SEDG) Diversification strategy: linkEnphase (ENPH) Future of inverter technology: linkGenerac (GNRC) Solar + storage: linkWaste Connections (WCN) People & culture: linkWaste Connections (WCN) Pricing strategy: linkWaste Management

37、(WM) Volume outlook: linkWaste Management (WM) People First foccus: linkRepublic Services (RSG) Talent retention: linkAdvanced Disposal (ADSW) Market selection: linkCasella Waste (CWST) Future of recycling: linkCasella Waste (CWST) Northeast waste market: linkHannon Armstrong (HASI) Behind the meter

38、 opportunity: linkDateGuest speakersTopic26-Mar-20UBS Analyst Dan Ford & Jon WindhamThe U.S. grid to 203025-Mar-20Commonwealth Fusion SystemsPath to commercial fusion energy20-Mar-20ApparentOptimizing renewables integration18-Mar-20Agora EnergiewendeEuropean energy transition13-Mar-20AWEAU.S. wind m

39、arket update12-Mar-20Azure PowerUtility scale solar development in India11-Mar-20NuvveEV vehicle to grid technology10-Mar-20ITERCommercial scale fusion energy28-Feb-20EV ConnectCloud based EV charge management27-Feb-20Global CCS InstituteStatus of carbon capture & storage26-Feb-20Absaroka EnergyPump

40、ed hydro energy storage25-Feb-20Intersect PowerUtility scale renewables development24-Feb-20TerraPowerAdvanced nuclear energy systems14-Jan-20GreenFluxOS for EV charge networks17-Dec-19IEAGlobal renewables outlook12-Dec-19Waste ConnectionsPeople & culture10-Dec-19SolpadResidential battery storage9-D

41、ec-19World Nuclear AssociationGlobal nuclear power trends5-Dec-19Aurora SolarDistributed solar planning & design4-Dec-19Waste ManagementPeople First focus4-Dec-19Sunflare SolarFlexible CIGS solar module technology3-Dec-19Casella WasteDeep dive on recycling21-Nov-19LBNLWind & solar growth, cost, and

42、value19-Nov-19GeneracResidential solar & storage18-Nov-19ChanjeEV opportunity for proactive utilities14-Nov-19LBNLGrid connected PV trends13-Nov-19NGVAmericaNatural gas vehicles15-Oct-19SkysailsHigh altitude kite wind power14-Oct-19ElectronBlockchain systems for the energy system11-Oct-19Lawrence Be

43、rkeley National LaboratoryRate design for behind the meter storage7-Oct-19RMIClean energy portfolios and stranded assets4-Oct-19WePowerDigitally enabled PPAs3-Oct-19NRELBatteries to provide peaking capacity2-Oct-19AMPLY PowerEV fleet charging20-Sep-19EnphaseFuture of solar inverter technology17-Sep-

44、19RES GroupThe evolution of renewable PPAs12-Sep-19Momentum DynamicsWireless EV charging11-Sep-19NRELU.S. solar market update23-Jul-19UBS AnalystPower, Utilities, and Alt Energy 2Q preview23-Jul-19NRELUsing data to drive down wind cost18-Jul-19Twing TecAirborne wind energy16-Jul-19UBS Asset Manageme

45、ntEngaging with corporates on climate change11-Jul-19Key Capture EnergyBuilding large scale energy storage projectsPrevious conference callsDateGuest speakersTopic10-Jul-19Ampyx PowerTethered wind energy systems8-Jul-19kWh AnalyticsAssessing solar project risk25-Jun-19NantEnergyZinc air energy stora

46、ge19-Jun-19Cinnamon EnergyResidential battery storage14-Jun-19Global CCS InstituteGlobal carbon capture and storage trends13-Jun-19IRENARenewable cost decline potential7-Jun-19AWEAU.S. wind market update21-May-19IEAGlobal energy and emissions trends10-May-19NRELCommunity choice aggregation30-Apr-19N

47、RELU.S. solar market outlook26-Apr-19RMIClean energy portfolio economics25-Apr-19Yale Program on Climate ChangeClimate change public opinion16-Apr-19eMotorWerksEV grid management15-Apr-19WiTricityWireless EV charging11-Apr-19TeraloopKinetic energy storage29-Mar-19eCarUpEV charging28-Mar-19HASIBehind

48、 the meter opportunity22-Mar-19SEPATransactive energy systems21-Mar-19NEC Energy StorageLithium ion battery storage20-Mar-19EvgoEV fast charging15-Mar-19IATAAirline climate change impacts14-Mar-19SEDGDeep dive on diversification strategy8-Mar-19RMIEconomics of zero energy homes5-Mar-19EOS StorageLit

49、hium ion battery alternatives28-Feb-19American WindDistributed wind power27-Feb-19FabriqEnergy efficiency26-Feb-19EPA4th National Climate Assessment25-Feb-19EIA2019 Annual Energy Outlook20-Feb-19CorPower OceanWave energy12-Feb-19IRENAGeopolitics of the energy transition22-Jan-19NRELElectrifying the

50、US energy system22-Jan-19UBS Analyst4Q18 earnings preview9-Jan-19Rocky Mountain InstituteCorporate demand for renewables8-Jan-19AmpionCommunity solar4-Jan-19UBS Global AnalystChina Recycling restrictions19-Dec-18UN working group on climate changeGlobal warming mitigation & impacts13-Dec-18UBS Analys

51、tUS demand for new generation capacity13-Dec-18Ascend AnalyticsEconomics of grid battery storage7-Dec-18American Wind Energy Association2019 US wind outlook & trends6-Dec-18RSG managementTalent Management3-Dec-18WM managementVolume outlookDateGuest speakersTopic30-Nov-18DNVGLEnergy outlook to205029-

52、Nov-18Momentum DynamicsHigh powered wireless EV charging28-Nov-18FerroampSmart home energy devices20-Nov-18Smart Electric Power AllianceTrends in U.S. battery storage market16-Nov-18Ice EnergyIce storage for peak load reduction9-Nov-18PolyJouleInnovative mass market battery storage2-Nov-18Bureau of

53、Ocean Energy ManagementU.S. offshore wind market26-Oct-18SunnovaLargest private residential solar company22-Oct-18UBS Global AnalystGlobal renewable energy trends18-Oct-18Lawrence Berkeley Natl LabsTrends in the US wind & solar markets18-Oct-18UBS Analyst3Q18 earnings preview, Utility & Alt. Energy1

54、6-Oct-18Highview PowerLiquid air energy storage technology12-Oct-18American Wind Energy AssociationUS wind market Q&A11-Oct-18SolarReserveSolar & integrated storage developer10-Oct-18Ecogy SolarDistributed solar developer9-Oct-18ReThink XEV impacts on global energy systems5-Oct-18HEVOWireless EV cha

55、rging4-Oct-18UETGrid scale flow batteries25-Sep-18TolvikUK & Ireland Waste-to-Energy outlook19-Sep-18WCN managementFocus on MSW pricing strategy18-Sep-18CWST managementNew England waste market dynamics17-Sep-18ORA managementLong-term growth strategy13-Sep-18ESS Inc.Grid scale flow batteries12-Sep-18

56、NRELUS solar & storage markets10-Sep-18ADSW managementMarket selection strategy6-Sep-18SenseSmart home energy devices28-Aug-18Ionic MaterialsHigh performance battery materials22-Aug-18Halo EnergyDistributed wind generation OEM21-Aug-18UBS Global AnalystChina Recycling restrictions20-Aug-18Sistine So

57、larSolar module aesthetics16-Aug-18Trident WindsCA floating offshore wind developer13-Aug-18UBS Global AnalystEU wind OEMs sector launch19-Jul-18UBS Global AnalystTrade war implications11-Jul-18American Wind Energy AssociationUS wind market26-Jun-18Smart Electric Power AllianceUS solar market7-Jun-1

58、8UBS Global AnalystGlobal renewables outlook4-Jun-18UBS Global AnalystChina Recycling restrictions24-May-18UBS AnalystImplications of CA solar mandates7-May-18Smart Electric Power AllianceUtility integration of Electric Vehicles27-Apr-18UBS AnalystOffshore wind outlook28-Mar-18IRENAUS energy storage

59、 marketThis presentation was produced solely by Intersect Power. The opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of UBS. UBS accepts no responsibility for the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information and will not be liable either directly or indirectly

60、 for any loss or damage arising out of the use of this presentation or part thereof.Reproduced with permission.Figure 1: Slide 1Source: INTERSECT POWERFigure 2: Slide 2Source: INTERSECT POWERFigure 3: Slide 3Source: INTERSECT POWERFigure 4: Slide 4Source: INTERSECT POWERFigure 5: Slide 5Source: INTE