財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表盈利預(yù)測(cè)與估值表

1、,代碼,公司名稱,分析日期,600439.SH,瑞貝卡,2009-10-12,歷史數(shù)據(jù),明確預(yù)測(cè)期,長(zhǎng)期預(yù)測(cè)期,1、經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)假設(shè),2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009E,2010E,2011E,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,2016E,2017E,2018E,營(yíng)業(yè)收入增長(zhǎng)率（YOY),50.19%,8.12%,40.76%,15.00%,0.47%,17.48%,22.66%,15.09%,8.52%,10.40%,10.16%,5.95%,11.41%,6.11%,7.72%,營(yíng)業(yè)成本 /營(yíng)業(yè)收入,80.15%,78.22%,79.83%,73.78%

2、,70.64%,73.28%,68.67%,66.86%,64.90%,63.33%,62.21%,61.21%,60.54%,59.33%,58.67%,營(yíng)業(yè)稅率,0.01%,0.39%,0.41%,0.61%,0.42%,0.40%,0.40%,0.40%,0.40%,0.40%,0.40%,0.40%,0.40%,0.40%,0.40%,銷售費(fèi)用 /營(yíng)業(yè)收入,2.36%,2.50%,1.09%,1.39%,3.02%,3.50%,3.50%,3.40%,3.40%,3.40%,3.40%,3.40%,3.40%,3.40%,3.40%,管理費(fèi)用 /營(yíng)業(yè)收入,2.39%,3.60%,3.4

3、2%,2.93%,3.84%,5.00%,4.60%,4.40%,4.30%,4.20%,4.20%,4.20%,4.20%,4.20%,4.20%,實(shí)際稅率,29.34%,29.86%,30.32%,27.39%,10.86%,20.00%,20.00%,20.00%,25.00%,25.00%,25.00%,25.00%,25.00%,25.00%,25.00%,少數(shù)股東損益/稅前利潤(rùn),0.03%,0.00%,0.02%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,股利分配比例,55.11%

4、,59.13%,49.02%,26.12%,17.57%,30.00%,35.00%,40.00%,42.00%,44.00%,46.00%,48.00%,50.00%,52.00%,54.00%,2、營(yíng)運(yùn)資金假設(shè),2004,2005,2006,2007E,2008,2009E,2010E,2011E,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,2016E,2017E,2018E,貨幣資金 /營(yíng)業(yè)收入,15.50%,42.85%,33.89%,27.50%,30.00%,30.00%,30.00%,30.00%,30.00%,30.00%,30.00%,30.00%,30.00%,30.0

5、0%,應(yīng)收帳款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)(相對(duì)于營(yíng)業(yè)收入),50.92,42.56,46.56,24.75,30.00,30.00,30.00,30.00,30.00,30.00,30.00,30.00,30.00,30.00,其他應(yīng)收款/營(yíng)業(yè)收入,0.89%,0.74%,0.75%,1.27%,1.10%,1.10%,1.10%,1.10%,1.10%,1.10%,1.10%,1.10%,1.10%,1.10%,應(yīng)收票據(jù)周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)(相對(duì)于營(yíng)業(yè)收入),0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,存貨周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)(相對(duì)于營(yíng)業(yè)

6、成本),256.29,134.69,176.74,360.75,300.00,300.00,300.00,300.00,300.00,300.00,300.00,300.00,300.00,300.00,應(yīng)付票據(jù)周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)(相對(duì)于營(yíng)業(yè)成本),0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,應(yīng)付帳款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)(相對(duì)于營(yíng)業(yè)成本),43.15,8.82,18.45,27.30,22.00,22.00,22.00,22.00,22.00,22.00,22.00,22.00,22.00,22.00,預(yù)付帳款增加 /營(yíng)

7、業(yè)成本,1.38%,2.46%,5.18%,-4.59%,-0.50%,3.00%,3.00%,3.00%,3.00%,3.00%,3.00%,3.00%,3.00%,3.00%,預(yù)收帳款(負(fù)債)增加 /營(yíng)業(yè)收入,0.10%,0.26%,-0.13%,0.51%,0.50%,0.50%,0.50%,0.50%,0.50%,0.50%,0.50%,0.50%,0.50%,0.50%,預(yù)提費(fèi)用增加 /營(yíng)業(yè)收入,-0.01%,-0.05%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,其他流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)增加

8、/營(yíng)業(yè)收入增加,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,其他流動(dòng)負(fù)債增加 /營(yíng)業(yè)收入增加,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,其他長(zhǎng)期資產(chǎn)增加 /營(yíng)業(yè)收入增加,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,其他長(zhǎng)期負(fù)債

9、增加 /營(yíng)業(yè)收入增加,0.00%,3.53%,0.46%,11.83%,5.00%,5.00%,5.00%,5.00%,5.00%,5.00%,5.00%,5.00%,5.00%,5.00%,壞帳準(zhǔn)備 /應(yīng)收帳款,短期投資跌價(jià)準(zhǔn)備,存貨跌價(jià)準(zhǔn)備(含工程虧損準(zhǔn)備),長(zhǎng)期投資減值準(zhǔn)備,固定資產(chǎn)減值準(zhǔn)備,在建工程減值準(zhǔn)備,3、投資活動(dòng)假設(shè),2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009E,2010E,2011E,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,2016E,2017E,2018E,I,資本開支,期末固定資產(chǎn)原值,22226.71 ,27363.13 ,31112.03 ,3

10、3986.48 ,35923.70 ,37892.32 ,39876.62 ,41868.77 ,43864.85 ,45862.89 ,47361.91 ,48611.42 ,期末累計(jì)折舊,3948.94 ,5134.80 ,7092.73 ,9223.13 ,11469.76 ,13834.51 ,16318.32 ,18921.66 ,21644.76 ,24487.74 ,27420.67 ,30428.56 ,期末固定資產(chǎn)減值準(zhǔn)備,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,1.00 ,固定資產(chǎn)投

11、資,3102.1 ,-678.7 ,619.90 ,6813.68 ,4000.00 ,2000.00 ,1000.00 ,2000.00 ,2000.00 ,2000.00 ,2000.00 ,2000.00 ,1000.00 ,1000.00 ,無形資產(chǎn)投資,1000.00 ,1000.00 ,1000.00 ,0.00 ,1000.00 ,1000.00 ,0.00 ,1000.00 ,0.00 ,1000.00 ,長(zhǎng)期待攤費(fèi)用增加,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,固定資產(chǎn)的折舊年限平均為

12、,15,年,殘值率為,5.00%,年折舊率=,6.33%,新增固定資產(chǎn)折舊率,6.00%,現(xiàn)有無形資產(chǎn)攤銷年限為,15 ,年,新增無形資產(chǎn)攤銷年限為,15 ,年,現(xiàn)有長(zhǎng)期待攤費(fèi)用攤銷年限為,10 ,年,新增長(zhǎng)期待攤費(fèi)用攤銷年限為,10 ,年,II,金融投資及股權(quán)投資,交易性金融資產(chǎn)投資,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,可供出售金融資產(chǎn)投資,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,持有至到期投資,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,長(zhǎng)期股權(quán)投資,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,投資性房地產(chǎn),0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,4、融資活動(dòng)假設(shè),2004

13、,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009E,2010E,2011E,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,2016E,2017E,2018E,貸款,銀行長(zhǎng)期貸款增加額,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,債券或短融,期初余額,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,債券發(fā)行數(shù)量,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,債

14、券償還,0.00 ,0.00 ,可轉(zhuǎn)債,期初余額,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,可轉(zhuǎn)換債當(dāng)期發(fā)行/(贖回）,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,可轉(zhuǎn)債當(dāng)期轉(zhuǎn)股,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,轉(zhuǎn)股價(jià)格,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.

15、00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,轉(zhuǎn)股股數(shù),0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,股票融資,發(fā)行股數(shù),0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,發(fā)行價(jià)格,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,發(fā)行費(fèi)用所占比例,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,0.00 ,利率假設(shè),a、最低貨幣資金為營(yíng)業(yè)收入的,15.00%,b、銀行長(zhǎng)期貸款利率為,5.94%,c、短期貸款利率為,5.30%,d、現(xiàn)金存款利率為,0.98%,f、債券利率,e、可轉(zhuǎn)債利率,5、估值參數(shù)相關(guān)假設(shè)