中國(guó)CDM能力建設(shè)項(xiàng)目培訓(xùn)講義(1)ppt課件

1、基準(zhǔn)和額外性Baselines and additionality中國(guó)CDM才干建立工程培訓(xùn)講義Training Material Building Capacity for the CDM in China基準(zhǔn)線情景 ：The baseline scenario基準(zhǔn)線基準(zhǔn)線情景：Baseline baseline scenario ) 對(duì)沒有CDM工程活動(dòng)的情況下，對(duì)GHG排放趨勢(shì)情況的預(yù)測(cè)Scenario forecasted to show the trend of anthropogenic GHG emissionsthat would occur in the absence of

2、 the proposed CDM project. 工程情景：Project scenario對(duì)有CDM工程活動(dòng)的情況下，對(duì)GHG排放趨勢(shì)情景的預(yù)測(cè)Scenario forecast to show the trend of anthropogenic GHG emissionsthat would occur with the proposed CDM project intervention. 基準(zhǔn)線：BaselineCDM工程活動(dòng)的基準(zhǔn)線是一種假設(shè)情況合理代表在不開展擬議工程活動(dòng)的情況下的溫室氣體人為源排放量?；鶞?zhǔn)線應(yīng)涵蓋工程內(nèi)附件A 所列一切氣體部門和源類別的排放量The basel

3、ine for a CDM project activity is the scenario that reasonably represents the anthropogenic emissions by sources of greenhouse gases that would occur in the absence of the proposed project activity. A baseline shall cover emissions from all gases, sectors and source categories listed in Annex A with

4、in the project boundary.基準(zhǔn)線可包含一種假設(shè)情況。這種假設(shè)情況估計(jì)未來人為源排放量因工程?hào)|道國(guó)的詳細(xì)情況將超越目前程度The baseline may include a scenario where future anthropogenic emissions by sources are projected to rise above current levels, due to the specific circumstances of the host Party.CDM modalities & procedures, paragraph 44 & 46基準(zhǔn)線

5、方法：Baseline approaches (MA48)現(xiàn)有實(shí)踐排放量或歷史排放量如運(yùn)用時(shí)在思索到投資妨礙的情況下，一種代表有經(jīng)濟(jì)吸引力的技術(shù)方案所產(chǎn)生的排放量在過去五年同等社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境和技術(shù)情況下，類似工程活動(dòng)的平均排放量在同一類別位居前20%Existing actual or historical emissions, as applicable; Emissions from a technology that represents an economically attractive course of action, taking into account barriers to

6、 investment; The average emissions of similar project activities undertaken in the previous five years, in similar social, economic, environmental and technological circumstances, and whose performance is among the top 20 per cent of their category.基準(zhǔn)線方法的選擇應(yīng)從以下各項(xiàng)中選擇最適宜該工程活動(dòng)的方法并就其選擇闡明理由Select from am

7、ong the following approaches the one deemed most appropriate for the project activity and justify the appropriateness of your choice:建立基準(zhǔn)線：Establishing a baseline以一個(gè)詳細(xì)工程為根底按照所運(yùn)用的已同意的或新的方法學(xué)之要求以透明的和保守的方式選擇進(jìn)展方法、假設(shè)條件、方法學(xué)、數(shù)據(jù)源、關(guān)鍵要素及額外性，并思索不確定性思索與工程業(yè)別有關(guān)的國(guó)家或產(chǎn)亞政策和詳細(xì)情況，如產(chǎn)亞改革行動(dòng)、當(dāng)?shù)厝剂瞎?yīng)、動(dòng)力部門擴(kuò)展方案以及其他經(jīng)濟(jì)條件假設(shè)小型CDM工程

8、活動(dòng)，應(yīng)依簡(jiǎn)化的程序建立活動(dòng)，以符合簡(jiǎn)化的準(zhǔn)擇要求On a project-specific basis;In accordance with provisions for the use of approved and new methodologies In a transparent and conservative manner manner regarding the choice of approaches, assumptions, methodologies, parameters, data sources, key factors and additionality, an

9、d taking into account uncertainty;Taking into account relevant national and/or sector policies and circumstances, such as sector reform initiatives, local fuel availability, power sector expansion plans, and the economic situation in the project sector.In the case of small-scale CDM project activiti

10、es which meet the criteria specified in accordance with simplified procedures developed for such activities;基準(zhǔn)線與額外性：Baseline and additionalityYearGHG emissions t CO2-eq排放基準(zhǔn)線 Baseline emissions存在工程情況下的排放With project emissions減排量Emission reductions工程改善 Abatement project闡明不是常態(tài)工程下的減排Explain why the emis

11、sion reduction are not business as usual額外性要求：Additionality requirementsCDM工程的溫室氣體減排應(yīng)與減緩氣候變化有關(guān)的真實(shí)的、可丈量的和長(zhǎng)期的效益GHG emission reductions of CDM projects shall be real, measurable, and assure long-term benefits related to the mitigation of climate changeCDM 工程溫室氣體的減排放應(yīng)是在沒有經(jīng)證明的工程活動(dòng)的情況下所產(chǎn)生的額外的一切排放量的減少GHG e

12、mission reductions of CDM projects shall be additional to any that would occur in the absence of the certified project activity. Kyoto Protocol, Article 12/ 5(c)清潔開展機(jī)制工程活動(dòng)應(yīng)具有額外性，即溫室氣體人為源排放量減少到低于不開展清潔開展機(jī)制工程活動(dòng)情況下會(huì)出現(xiàn)的程度A CDM project activity is additional if anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases

13、by sources are reduced below those that would have occurred in the absence of the registered CDM project activity.CDM modalities & procedures, paragraph 43 額外性評(píng)價(jià)：Additionality assessment經(jīng)過流程圖或一系列問題逐漸減少基準(zhǔn)情景選擇的范圍定性或定量的評(píng)價(jià)不同能夠的基準(zhǔn)情景，并闡明該基準(zhǔn)情景的工程不能夠?qū)嵤┒ㄐ曰蚨康卦u(píng)價(jià)所提議的工程實(shí)施妨礙展現(xiàn)闡明該工程不是通常慣例，例如發(fā)生的情況 全部能夠情況的X%A flow-

14、chart or series of questions that lead to a narrowing of potential baseline options;A qualitative or quantitative assessment of different potential options and an indication of why the non-project option is more likely;A qualitative or quantitative assessment of one or more barriers facing the propo

15、sed project activity; (An indication that the project type is not common practice (e.g. occurs in less than 0 ：由于資本所值大于其本錢，因此添加企業(yè)的價(jià)值；more economic attractive當(dāng)凈現(xiàn)值為負(fù)時(shí)， NPV 0：由于資本本錢大于其所值，因此減少企業(yè)價(jià)值, less economic attractive凈現(xiàn)值為零時(shí)， NPV = 0：意味著投資人曾經(jīng)賺到與投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相應(yīng)的適當(dāng)報(bào)答。Balance attractive 內(nèi)部收益率：IRR當(dāng)效益和本錢的現(xiàn)值相等時(shí)的投資

16、的報(bào)答率IRR is the discount rate r which makes the NPV of the investment exactly zero.步驟2總結(jié)：Step 2 summary假設(shè)NPV/IRR 太低，無論CERs的收入如何，工程將不會(huì)被思索if NPV/IRR is too low, the project will not go ahead anyway, regardless of the CERs revenue or not; 假設(shè)NPV/IRR太高，將難以解釋投資妨礙的問題。ifNPV/IRR is too high, the project will

17、have difficulties inexplaining the investment barrier,as it may be argued that it would be implemented anyway, regardless of the CERs revenue.工程投資分析中涉及許多假設(shè)情況，DOE在審定此一問題時(shí)非常困難it is very difficult for the DOE to check the IRR as we dont knowa project developers internal costing approach, the waybenefit

18、s are evaluated, etc. there are a lot of assumptions in such calculations, as were talking about future cash flows.指定運(yùn)營(yíng)實(shí)體普通采取向有關(guān)管理部門或利害相關(guān)方了解NPV/IRR能否合理DNV bases its judgement on experiences with similar projects in the respective sector and country context and will askauthorities or other stakeholde

19、rs whether theNPV/IRR analysis in the PDD is reasonable.在PDD文件中應(yīng)添加對(duì)投資妨礙的數(shù)量分析Add a qualitativediscussion about the NPV/IRR in your PDD to make the case of an investment barrier.額外性判別范例-步驟3 - Additionality testing example -Step 3壁壘評(píng)價(jià)Barrier assessment:投資壁壘Investment barriers技術(shù)壁壘Technological barriers因

20、流行實(shí)務(wù)呵斥的壁壘Barriers due to prevailing practice支持壁壘的充分證據(jù)Support barriers with sufficient evidence證明最終的情景無法防止此壁壘 那就是基線!)Show that at least one of the scenarios would not be prevented by the barriers (that will be the baseline!)額外性判別范例-步驟4 - Additionality testing example -Step 4慣用實(shí)務(wù)分析Common practice anal

21、ysis:其他活動(dòng)Other activities類似發(fā)生情況Similar options occurring討論闡明Discuss!步驟5 CDM 注冊(cè)的影響：Step 5. Impact of CDM registration解釋提出的工程被同意并注冊(cè)為CDM工程后，由實(shí)施該工程的獲益將減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)或財(cái)務(wù)的妨礙第二步所論述的或識(shí)別的其他妨礙第三步所論述的Explain how the approval and registration of the project activity as a CDM activity, and the attendant benefits and incentives derived from the project activity, wil