資產(chǎn)管理報(bào)告etf將引領(lǐng)下一步增長(zhǎng)中英2019.7

1、2019中國(guó)資產(chǎn)管理ETF將引領(lǐng)下一波增長(zhǎng)作者周之行, 董事葉琮, 副董事獲取報(bào)告1、2、3、每周群內(nèi)7+報(bào)告；當(dāng)日華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)、學(xué)人4、行研報(bào)告均為公開(kāi)利歸原作者所有，起點(diǎn)財(cái)經(jīng)僅分發(fā)做內(nèi)部學(xué)習(xí)。掃一掃關(guān)注 回復(fù)：加入“起點(diǎn)財(cái)經(jīng)”群目錄背景: 2018年成為轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)25914ETF需求上升給ETF管理公司的建議結(jié)語(yǔ)Copyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman1執(zhí)行摘要中國(guó)的資產(chǎn)管理市場(chǎng)正進(jìn)入一個(gè)全新的階段：市場(chǎng)進(jìn)一步向企業(yè)開(kāi)放；同時(shí)，基金管理公司開(kāi)始著手取替基于“資產(chǎn)”的管理。我們觀察到一個(gè)有趣的趨勢(shì)：投資在中國(guó)日益受追捧。如今，越來(lái)越多的基金管理公司正在關(guān)注的型開(kāi)放式指數(shù)

2、基金（“ETF”），將它們視作下一個(gè)增長(zhǎng)引擎。旨在探討中國(guó)ETF市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展軌跡與增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力，幫助資產(chǎn)管理公司了解未來(lái)的機(jī)遇，把握不斷增長(zhǎng)的需求，從而駕馭中國(guó)這個(gè)獨(dú)特又充滿的市場(chǎng)。在第一節(jié)里，我們指出2018年是ETF市場(chǎng)的拐點(diǎn)。2018年，ETF市場(chǎng)的資產(chǎn)管理規(guī)模迅在第二節(jié)里，我們?cè)u(píng)估在第三節(jié)里，我們指出基金管理公司需要擺脫“以為中心”的思維模式，認(rèn)真地研究不同投資者的需求，制定周全而明智的策略，以贏得投資者。具體而言，投資者可能會(huì)有不同的目標(biāo)，有些需要進(jìn)行戰(zhàn)術(shù)型建倉(cāng)，另一些則需要建立長(zhǎng)期投資組合，這將轉(zhuǎn)化為不同的買(mǎi)入標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。對(duì)前者來(lái)說(shuō)，指數(shù)的獨(dú)特 性更為重要；而后者則看重成 本效率。了ETF增長(zhǎng)

3、的驅(qū)動(dòng)所在。首先，個(gè)人投資者日漸成 熟，并認(rèn)識(shí)到ETF作為低成本投資工具的長(zhǎng)處；同時(shí)，機(jī)構(gòu)投資者也在不斷地深化與拓寬投資領(lǐng)域。其次，隨著分析能力的提 升，基金管理公司能夠開(kāi)發(fā)更廣速增長(zhǎng)至560億3,810億元（約合），并在年內(nèi)推出了近40支新基金。然而，與其他市場(chǎng)相比，中國(guó)的ETF市場(chǎng)仍處于起步階段。泛的“聰明，包括窄基指數(shù)基金及”（smart-beta）指數(shù)基金。此外，隨著基金管公司者開(kāi)始降低管理與托管費(fèi)用，中國(guó)的ETF為“低成本工具”，這將有望提升投資者的接納度。除了這些驅(qū)動(dòng)因素外，監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)與所也在積極地倡導(dǎo)發(fā)展ETF市場(chǎng)。2018年無(wú)疑是中國(guó)ETF市場(chǎng)的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。我們預(yù)計(jì)市場(chǎng)將會(huì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，

4、但只有做好充分的準(zhǔn)備，資產(chǎn)管理公司才能趁勢(shì)在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中脫穎而出成為贏家。因此，資產(chǎn)管理公司應(yīng)密切關(guān)注市場(chǎng)動(dòng)態(tài)，把握每一個(gè)令人振奮的機(jī)會(huì)。Copyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman1 1 背景: 2018年成為轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)直到2004年，才出現(xiàn)了第一支ETF。中國(guó)ETF市場(chǎng)的歷史較短，與其他市場(chǎng)相比，它仍處于初始階段。就資產(chǎn)管理規(guī)模而言，ETF目前僅國(guó)公募基金市場(chǎng)總額的7.5%左右，這個(gè)比例明顯低于美國(guó)。與其他投資工具（如股票和期貨）相比，上海（上交所）的ETF投資者數(shù)量有限（見(jiàn)圖1）。交圖 1: 中國(guó)ETF市場(chǎng)規(guī)模ETF市場(chǎng)規(guī)模1, 中國(guó) vs 美國(guó)占公募基金資產(chǎn)管理規(guī)模的%1

5、ETFs 數(shù)量20182 ,：10億元3817.5%22.8%1731,97724,783上交所ETF和其他2018年上半年,的投資者數(shù)量：千股票期貨100,000+800300ETF6001. 不包括基金； 2. 中國(guó)數(shù)據(jù)截至2018年年底，美國(guó)數(shù)據(jù)截至2018年11月數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源: Wind, ICI, 上交所,咨詢分析Copyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman2在過(guò)去十年中，ETF市場(chǎng)持續(xù)緩慢增長(zhǎng)。雖然ETF基金的數(shù)量已從2012年的45支穩(wěn)步攀升至2017年的135支，然而相應(yīng)的資產(chǎn)管理規(guī)模僅從1,630億元），增幅為40%。（約合240億（見(jiàn)圖2）增加至2,32

6、0億元（約合340億圖 2: 中國(guó)新及現(xiàn)有ETF基金的數(shù)量與資產(chǎn)管理規(guī)模5047新ETF：10億元資產(chǎn)管理規(guī)模, 2004-2018403022202015121099677106000050新20ETF數(shù)量403020100208400現(xiàn)3002001004024790現(xiàn)有ETF2004-2018數(shù)量1031127187453620102004 2005200620072008200920102011 2012201320142015 20162017 2018數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源: Wind,咨詢分析Copyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman3有趣的是，我們看到在2018年E

7、TF市場(chǎng)的資產(chǎn)管理規(guī)模突然激增，達(dá)到3,810億元（約合560億），并在年內(nèi)推出了近40支新基金。研究表明，機(jī)構(gòu)投資者正在加大對(duì)ETF的建倉(cāng)力度。他們看中的是主要股票指數(shù)處于較低位且估值深具潛力。此前，中國(guó)大幅下挫，為三年以來(lái)的表現(xiàn)。同時(shí)，中國(guó)主要股票指數(shù)的市盈率也接近歷史低位，低于全球市場(chǎng)的主要指數(shù)。對(duì)投資者來(lái)說(shuō)，這樣的估值極具吸引力（見(jiàn)圖3）。得益于市場(chǎng)環(huán)境，中國(guó)ETF的發(fā)展開(kāi)始進(jìn)入快車道。圖 3: 中國(guó)主要股指的表現(xiàn)主要股指的市盈率 (上證50指數(shù)、滬深300指數(shù)、中證500指數(shù)) vs. 市場(chǎng)額 (上海，)倍數(shù) (市盈率), 10億元(額), 2016 2018主要股指的市盈率市場(chǎng)額5

8、014,0004512,0004010,00035308,000256,00020154,000102,000500Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42016Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42017Q12018Q2Q320182018Q42018上證50 滬深300 中證500上海數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源: Wind,咨詢分析Copyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman4 2 ETF需求上升鑒于中國(guó)ETF市場(chǎng)的歷史較短，市場(chǎng)欠發(fā)達(dá)，投資者、基及其他相關(guān)市場(chǎng)參與者受到各種牽制，包括（見(jiàn)圖4）。知識(shí)缺乏、范圍狹窄和分銷有限等圖 4: 各類消費(fèi)者及價(jià)值鏈參與者的掣肘個(gè)人投資者機(jī)

9、構(gòu)投資者銷售做市商 缺乏對(duì)管理型 ETF的性 投資者偏好絕對(duì)回報(bào)， 缺乏提升ETF投資的了解相對(duì)較低不了解資產(chǎn)配置的概念市場(chǎng)性的動(dòng)力 不了解ETF 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和回報(bào)的 缺乏有效的對(duì)沖策略與工具 選擇有限，指數(shù)表現(xiàn)不佳，很難被用于實(shí)現(xiàn)長(zhǎng)期回報(bào)及分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 投資ETF 過(guò)完成 ETF 銷售有限，例如必須通所賬戶 ETF的性相對(duì)較低傭金較低缺乏培訓(xùn)基金管理公司/ ETF管理公司所指數(shù)提供商技術(shù)提供商 由于市場(chǎng)需求有限， 所與OTC 之間存在隔閡 市場(chǎng)需求集中于股票指數(shù)，而非債券/ 大宗商品指數(shù) 缺乏市場(chǎng)規(guī)模缺乏 的動(dòng)力ETF所的ETF 性較低，缺乏優(yōu)化ETF 動(dòng)性的機(jī)制 指數(shù)品質(zhì)不佳所流盡管眾多，我們觀察到

10、市場(chǎng)正在經(jīng)歷快速演變，投資者行為不斷變化，市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入良性發(fā)展階段1。這些都為ETF市場(chǎng)的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)與蓬勃發(fā)展奠定了堅(jiān)實(shí)的基礎(chǔ)。2.1 日益成個(gè)人投資者與規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大的機(jī)構(gòu)客戶群中國(guó)ETF市場(chǎng)的一大是投資者類型有限。在其他成熟市場(chǎng)中，ETF作為投資工具，長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直為機(jī)構(gòu)投資者所主導(dǎo)，被用于進(jìn)行資產(chǎn)配置。然而，則以個(gè)人投資者為主，而這些投資者通常追求短期。盡管如此，我們看到自2018年以來(lái)投資者行為一直在變化。個(gè)人投資者的投資行為日趨成熟，這為公募基金市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展鋪平了道路。尤為值得一提的是，投資者開(kāi)始逐漸認(rèn)識(shí)到ETF作為低成本投資工具的優(yōu)勢(shì)。為了推動(dòng)ETF并提沒(méi)有開(kāi)高滲透率，上交所已計(jì)劃建立一個(gè)的“

11、場(chǎng)外?！保∣TC）平臺(tái)，立股票1. 摘自上海賬戶的用戶參與ETF所創(chuàng)新中心總經(jīng)理劉逖于2018年4月19日的Copyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman52019CHINA ASSET MANAGEMENTETF AS NEXT WAVE OF GROWTHAUTHORSRay Chou, Partner Jasper Yip, Principal獲取報(bào)告1、2、3、每周群內(nèi)7+報(bào)告；當(dāng)日華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)、4、行研報(bào)告均為公開(kāi)利歸原作者所有，起點(diǎn)財(cái)經(jīng)僅分發(fā)做內(nèi)部學(xué)習(xí)。掃一掃關(guān)注 回復(fù)：加入“起點(diǎn)財(cái)經(jīng)”群。ContentsExecutive SummaryBackdrop: 2

12、018 as an inflection point Rising demand for ETF products Propositions for ETF providers125914Copyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman1Executive SummaryChinas asset management market is now entering a new stage as the market opens up for foreign players and as fund management begins to substitute shadow b

13、anking asset based wealth management products.One interesting trend we have observed is the growing popularity of passive investment in China. More players are now eyeing the emergence of exchange traded fund (ETF) productsas the next engine of growth. This report aims to discuss how the ETF market

14、hasevolved and gained momentum, and to help asset managers to understand theopportunities that lie ahead in order to capitalize on the growing demand for such products while smoothly navigating through Chinas unique yet challenging market.Section 1identifies the year of 2018 as the inflection point

15、for the ETF market, where assets under management(AUM) rapidly grew to RMB 381 BN (or USD 56 BN) with close to 40 new funds launched during the year. However, Chinas ETF market is still at a nascent stage compared to other markets.Section 3 argues that fund management companies (FMCs) need to move a

16、way from a product-centric mindset.Instead, they should carefully examine the needs of different investors and develop a thoughtful and informed strategy to win the hearts of investors. Specifically, investors could have different objectives ranging from tactical position taking to long-term portfol

17、io construction this would translate into different key purchasing criteria, where uniqueness of the indices would be more important for the former and cost efficiency would be more important for the latter.Section 2 evaluates the driving forces for future growth in the ETF market. First and foremos

18、t, retail investors aregradually maturing and recognizing the benefits of ETF products as low-cost investment vehicles, while institutionalwallets are also deepening and broadening. Secondly, the advancement of analytical capabilities is now equipping fund managers with the ability to develop a broa

19、der rangeof products, including narrow-based and smart-beta index funds. In addition, players are showing initial signs of bringing down management and custody fees, whichmay drive more product adoption, as ETF2018 is undoubtedly an inflection point forthe ETF market. Continued growthis expected, bu

20、t the readiness of different asset managers to ride on the trend will differentiate the winners. Asset managers should therefore keep a close watch as the market evolves and stay prepared for any exciting ductse genuine low costtools. These drivers are coupled with active market dev

21、elopment advocacy by both the regulators and exchanges.Copyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman1 1 BACKDROP: 2018 AS AN INFLECTION POINTWother markets.ith the first ETF product only introducedin 2004, the ETF market inChina has a relatively short history and is still at a nascent stage compared toETF prod

22、ucts make up only 7.5% of Chinas mutual fund market today in terms of AUM, which is still notably smaller than that of the US. Currently, there are only limited investors trading ETF products on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) compared to other investment instruments, such as equities and futures

23、(See Exhibit 1).Exhibit 1: Size of the ETF marketSize of the ETF market1, China vs US220182 , BN RMB% of MF AUM1# of ETFs3817.5%22.8%1731,97724,783Number of investors trading ETFs and others on the SSE2018 H1, thousandsEquities100,000+Futures800Options300ETFs6001. Excluding Money Market Funds; 2. Ch

24、ina data is by 2018YE, US data is by 2018 NovSource: Wind, ICI, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Oliver Wyman analysisCopyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman2Over the past decade, the ETF markethas been experiencing slow growth. Whilethe number of ETFs steadily increased from 45 funds in 2012 to 135 funds in 201

25、7, AUM only grew 40% over the course of those 5 years from RMB 163 BN (or, USD 24 BN) to RMB 232 BN (or, USD 34 BN) (See Exhibit 2).Interestingly, we observed a sudden surge in AUM in the ETF market in 2018, reaching RMB 381 BN (or, USD 56 BN) with close to 40 new funds launched during the year.Exhi

26、bit 2: Number and AUM of newly issued ETFs and outstanding ETFs5047AUM of newly issued ETFsBN RMB, 2004-2018403022202015121099677106000050ber of newly issued ETFs403020100208400AB3002001004024790Number of outstanding ETFs2004-20181031127187453620102004 20052006 2007 2008 200920102011 201220132014201

27、5 20162017 2018Source: Wind, Oliver Wyman analysisCopyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman3Num20Research suggests that institutional investors are beginning to take positions in ETFs in order to take advantage of the low-and-attractive valuation of Chinas major indices.Thestock market slumped in 2018, hav

28、ing its weakest performance over the pastthr years; the P/E of Chinas major indices were also close to their historical low and below those of the major indices of the global market, thus making the valuation appealing to investors (See Exhibit 3).Benefitting from the market environment, ETFs have s

29、tarted to take off.Exhibit 3: Performance of major indicesPE of major indices (SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500) vs. Market Transaction Value (SH, SZ)Multiples (for PE), BN RMB (for transaction value), 2016 2018PE of major indicesMarket Transaction Value5014,0004512,0004010,00035308,000256,00020154,000102,0

30、00500Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42016Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42017Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42018SSE 50CSI 300CSI 500Shanghai A Shares Shenzhen A SharesSource: Wind, Oliver Wyman analysisCopyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman4 2 RISING DEMAND FOR ETF PRODUCTSGiven the short history of the ETF market, investors, fund manage

31、rs and otherassociated market participants have, so far, suffered from the various pain points of an underdeveloped market, including insufficient product knowledge, a narrow product range and limited distribution channels (See Exhibit 4).Exhibit 4: Pain points for segmented consumer base and value

32、chain playersRetail investorsInstitutional investorsSales channelsMarket makers Lack of understanding Relatively low liquidity of passive investmentfor ETFs Investors favor absolute returns and dont understand conceptof asslocation Limited investment channels, e.g. ETF transaction must be done throu

33、gh stock exchange accounts Low ETF commissions Lack of sales training Lack of incentives to improve ETF market liquidity Lack of e ective hedging strategies and toolsproducts Lack of understanding of ETF risks versus returns Relatively low liquidity for ETFs Limited product choices, poor index perfo

34、rmance, di cult to be used for long-term return and risk diversificationFMC/ETF issuersTechnology supplierExchangeIndex supplier Lack of incentives to Barriers between Market demand focuses on equity index, but not Lack of market scaleissue ETFs due toexchanges andlimited market demandOTC transactio

35、nson indexmodity Poor index quality Low liquidity for ETFs transacted on the exchange, exchange lacks mechanism to optimize ETF liquidityDespite the myriad challenges, we have observed that the market has been undergoing a rapid evolution, with both shifting investor behavior and favorable market de

36、velopments1 , which have laid a solid foundation for ETFs to grow and flourish continuously.2.1 Maturing retail investors and the broadening of the institutional client groupOne impediment to the ETF markethas been the limited investor mix. As a toolfor passive investment, ETFs have long been invest

37、ed by institutional investors for assetallocation in other mature markets. However, the retail investors who typically look for short-term gains.market is predominated by1 For example, the speech by Di Liu, Director of SSE Product Innovation Center, 19 April 2018Copyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman5Ne

38、vertheless, we have observed changing investor behavior since 2018. The gradually maturing investment behavior of retail investors has paved the way for mutual fund market growth. In particular, investors have begun to learn more about the advantages of ETF investment as a low-cost investment vehicl

39、e. To facilitate the ease of ETF trading and improve penetration, the SSE has proposed setting up an online “Over-The-Counter (OTC)” trading platform to allow users without stock trading accounts to participate in ETF transactions.In addition, we have observed increasing investment in ETFs by a broa

40、d range of institutional investors, including insurers, pension funds and trusts (See Exhibit 5).In order to further improve the appeal of ETFs for institutional clients, the SSE has called for better incentives and policies for ETF market makers to improve market liquidity.As a result, ETFs are gai

41、ning popularity among both retail and institutional investors with increasing adoption. As an example, the E Fund ChiNext ETF, the biggest ETF that tracks thestart-up board, has seen jumps in its number of holding shares by both institutionaland retail investors, with more than 480% and 340% growth

42、from 2017 to 2018, respectively.Exhibit 5: Investor structure of the Top 10 ETFsTop 10 investors of Top 10 ETFs, as of 2018 Q4. % of shares by top 10 shareholders China AMC China 50 ETF 81.6% 7.1% . 61% China Southern CSI 500 Index ETF 75.2% 21.6% . 74% Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF 66.2% 19.9% . 58

43、% Bosera SOE Struct Reform ETF 16.4% 4.5% 79.1% . 87% China AMC CSI 300 Index ETF 39.5% 57.9% . 98% Harvest CSI 300 Index ETF 94.6% . 91% E Fund ChiNext Price Index ETF 31.8% 60.8% . 30% Huaan Shanghai SSE180 Index Fund ETF 97.1% . 95% ChinaAMC SOE Struct Reform ETF 100% . 95% ICBC Credit Suisse SSE

44、 50 ETF 99.8% . 98% Investment companyRetailInsuranceQFIITrustFMCsSecurities companyOthers Source: Wind, Oliver Wyman analysis1. Includes banks ETF Feeder Funds, corporate pension plans, SOEs(oil & gas, energy, manufacturing, etc.)Copyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman62.2 Gradual proliferation of p

45、roduct developmentThere are limited product offerings for ETFs, with over 90% of products being equityETFs and dominated by broad-based indices, which make up about 70% of total equity ETF AUM. On the contrary, the development of bond ETFs and commodity ETFs has been rather limited. Narrow-based pro

46、ducts are also at an infancy stage, where the development of sector / thematic ETFs, cross-border ETFs and smart-beta ETFs began just a few years ago and with a limited variety (See Exhibit 6).Exhibit 6: ETF product development and product range in the US and ChinaETF product development in the US a

47、nd ChinaDate of issueDate of issueBy category, ETF first issued in the USETF first issuedfor each category1993Broad-based ETF1996Cross-border ETF1988Industry/Thematic ETF2000Smart Beta ETF2002Bond ETF2004Commodity ETF2006Leveraged ETF2008Active ETF2017AI ETFPing An Fund2019 May51293071. China AMC SS

48、E 50 ETF (華夏上證50ETF); 2. China AMC Hang Seng ETF (華夏恒生ETF) / E-Fund Hang SengH-Share ETF (恒生H股ETF); 3. CMF SSE Consumer 80 ETF (招商上證消費(fèi)80ETF); 4. Bosera SZSE Fundamenta200 ETF (博時(shí)深證基本面200ETF); 5. Harvest CSI Mid-term Treasury Bond ETF (嘉實(shí)中證中期國(guó)債ETF); 6. GuotaiGold ETF (國(guó)泰黃金ETF) / Huaan Gold ETF (華安黃金E

49、TF); 7. Ping An AI ETF (平安人工智能ETF)ETF product development in the US and China, 2018Overall 94% China ETFs 81% US ETFsEquity ETF deep-dive 71% China Equity ETFs 61% US Equity ETFsEquity ETFs Bond ETFs Commodity ETFsBroad-based Industry/Thematic Cross-borderSource: SWS Research, Wind, Oliver Wyman ana

50、lysisCopyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman7China Asset Management51005012004 DecemberChina Asset Management; E Fund Management159920/51009022012 AugustChina Merchants Fund51015032010 DecemberBosera Asset ManagemenJuneHarvest Fund ManagemenMayGuotai Asset Management; HuaAn Fund

51、s518800/51888062013 JulyHowever, this trend is expected to shift as asset managers start to build more capabilities around alternative data and analytics, which present new opportunities for fund managers and index providers to issue more and different types of ETFs. In 2018, we observed an increasi

52、ng number of FMCs competing in the ETF space. For instance, 20 FMCs have together issued 38 ETFs in 2018, compared to only 6 FMCs issued 9 ETF products in 2016. Different from the previous focus where most new issuances were equity ETFs, there was a greater variety of product offerings among the new

53、ly issued ETFs in 2018, including several bond ETFs, smart-beta ETFs and SOE reform themed ETFs.To support continuous innovation, the SSE has highlighted a few areas for potential expansion, including cross-market bond ETFs, green finance themed ETFs, SOE reform themed ETFs, fintech ETFs and active ETFs. The increasing number of players and the enablement of favorable policies are expected to stimulate product development ameliorating product quality, performance and variety.