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1、The Big Bull MarketThe Big Bull Market by Frederick Lewis Allenby Frederick Lewis AllenAuthor1A Bull Market and Bear Market2The Big Bull Market3OutlineOutline:Born:Born: July 5, 1890, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.Died:Died: Feb. 13, 1954 (aged 64), New York City, USA.Studied:Studied: Harvard Universit
2、y.Occupation:Occupation: Social historian and editor (the Atlantic Monthly, the Century, Harpers Magazine). Representative works: Only Yesterday (1931), Since Yesterday (1940), The Big Change (1952), Great Pierpont Morgan (1949). He is best remembered for his journalistic but nonetheless penetrating
3、 works of social history.Background KnowledgeBackground Knowledge Why Bull and Bear?Why Bull and Bear?lThe precise origin of the phrases bull market and bear market is obscure. The Oxford English Dictionary cites an 1891 use of the term bull market. Bull (buyer): It refers to a person who buys busin
4、ess shares in the hope of reselling them at a higher price. A Bull Market: It indicates a period of time when stock prices are rising. It is a rising market and a period of optimism. It tends to be associated with increasing investor confidence, motivating investors to buy in anticipation of future
5、capital gains. A bull market is also described as a bull run. Background Knowledge A Bull Market and Bear Market Bear (seller): It refers to a person who keeps selling stocks so as to lower the price, and at last buys back at a lower price a larger amount than that sold. A Bear Market: It indicates
6、a period of time when stock prices (values) are falling. It is a falling market and a period of pessimism. Investors anticipating further losses are motivated to sell, with negative sentiment feeding on itself in a vicious circle. Background Knowledge A Bull Market and Bear Market It refers to the r
7、ising stock market in the USA in 1920s (known as “Roaring Twenties”), especially during the period from March 3, 1928 to October 24, 1929.Background Knowledge The Big Bull Market Throughout the 1920s a long boom took stock prices to peaks never before seen. From 1920 to 1929 stocks more than quadrup
8、led in value. Many investors became convinced that stocks were a sure thing and borrowed heavily to invest more money in the market. Background Knowledge The Big Bull MarketBackground Knowledge The Big Bull Market By August 1929, brokers were routinely lending small investors more than 2/3 of the fa
9、ce value of the stocks they were buying. Over $8.5 billion was out on loan, more than the entire amount of currency circulating in the USA. Background Knowledge The Big Bull Market The rising share prices encouraged more people to invest; people hoped the share prices would rise further. Speculation
10、 thus fueled further rises and created an economic bubble. The average P/E (price to earnings) ratio of Composite stocks was 32.6 in September 1929, clearly above historical norms. After an amazing five-year run when the world saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) increase in value fivefold, prices peaked at 381.17 on September 3, 1929. Background Knowledge The Big Bull Market Many believed that the market could sustain high price levels. Irving Fisher famously proclaim
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