國際能源數(shù)據(jù)bp2013年世界統(tǒng)計(jì)

1、BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014BP世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒2014年6月 #BPstatsEnergy in 2013: Taking stock2013能源市場：消費(fèi)增長，庫存支撐Introduction引言Energy and the economy能源和Fuel by fuel各類的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r結(jié)語Christof Rühl.16 June 2014 魯爾 2014年6月®BP 2014Energy in 2013: Taking stock 2013能源市場：消費(fèi)增長，庫存支撐Outline Introductio

2、n Energy and the economyEnergy demand and pricesPrimary energy consumptionOECDNon-OECDBillion toe 876543$2013/boe 120Oil BrentGas European spot Gas USCoal basket9060300Inflation adjusted prices Fuel by fuel199319982003200820131993 1998 2003 2008 2013 Concluding remarksSource: includes data from ICIS

3、 Heren Energy, Energy Intelligence Group, IHS McCloskey and PlattsBP Statistical Review of World Energy© BP 2014能源需求和價格BP Statistical Review of World Energy© BP 2014目錄10億噸油當(dāng)量87654一次能源需求扣除通脹因素后的價格2013 價格/桶油當(dāng)量石油（）天然氣（歐洲現(xiàn)貨價格）天然氣（ ）煤炭（一攬子價格）經(jīng)合組織非經(jīng)合組織120906030 引言31993199820032008201301993 1998

4、2003 2008 2013 能源和 各類 的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r 結(jié)語BP世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒© BP 2014來源: 來自ICIS Heren Energy, Energy Intelligence Group, IHS McCloskey and 普氏（Platts）的數(shù)據(jù)BP世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒© BP 2014To begin with, lets step back a little.首先，稍作回顧。Ten years ago, the energy world looked rather different. Much of what we took for granted ha

5、s changed. It is always a good first step to look back at where you came from before assessing today. What have been some of the major changes over the past decade?十年前，能源世界大為不同。很多我們當(dāng)時認(rèn)為理所當(dāng)然的事也已改變。在審視之前，對歷史稍作回顧向來是第一步。那么，過去十年里發(fā)生了哪些改變？Introduction引言The purpose of this review has always been to provide

6、objective data on global energy developments; and to chronicle changes in global energy markets year by year, in as rigorous a fashion as possible. Here is last years chapter.本年鑒的宗旨一如既往地在于提供全球能源發(fā)展動態(tài)的客觀數(shù)據(jù)；并竭盡所能嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)刂鹉?全球能源市場的變化。本文講述去年的能源動態(tài)。Ten years ago, the develo world, classified here as non-OECD ec

7、onomies, had started to embark on a period of rapid economic growth (the term BRICs was coined in 2001). From 2001 onward, this showed up as an “energy gap” global energy demand growth became dominated by the non-OECD; in 2008, it overtook the OECD. , rightly or wrongly, came to symbolize this ascen

8、t, overtaking the EU in 2007, the US in 2010 and the whole of North America last year. Many would have found this hard to believe ten years ago.十年前，本文歸類為非經(jīng)合組織 體的開始進(jìn)入快速增長期（2001年“金磚 ”一詞出現(xiàn)）。自2001年以來，這種增長體現(xiàn)出“能源缺口”非經(jīng)合組織主導(dǎo)著全球能源需求的增長；2008年，非經(jīng)合組織的需求增長超過經(jīng)合組織。成為上述需求增長的標(biāo)志，姑且不論正確與否，其能源需求在2007年超過歐盟，2010年超過BP世界能源

9、統(tǒng)計(jì)2014年6月1，去年則超過整個。十年前，許多人會覺得此事難以置信。Energy markets a uge and the supply response can be sluggish. So prices started to rise and to diverge. Oil prices rose the fastest, of course, but many of the implications are easily forgotten: today, we think of oil prices above $100 as normal, and many an analy

10、st remains gainfully employed by investigating gas price sp s an activity which would not have attracted much attention ten years ago.能源市場非常龐大，供應(yīng)側(cè)反應(yīng)可能緩慢。因此，價格開始攀升并呈現(xiàn)差異化。石油價格當(dāng)然上漲最快，但很多影響容易被遺忘： ，我們認(rèn)為石油價格超過100 是正?，F(xiàn)象，許多分析師被高薪聘請，致力于研究天然氣價差這項(xiàng)工作在10年前如此受到關(guān)注。Reserves and new sources of energy supplyPerceptio

11、ns change, not only about reserves. A supply response always existed but it became widely recognized only after it triggered the emergence of “new” sources of supply. The biggest item on this list has to be the emergence of unconventional oil and gas resources. That this would happen in the competit

12、ive energy world of North America makes perfect economic sense, in retrospect. But who would have thought?各種認(rèn)知發(fā)生變化，不僅是對儲量的認(rèn)知。供應(yīng)側(cè)的反應(yīng)始終，但只有在其導(dǎo)致出現(xiàn)“新”供應(yīng)來源后到普遍認(rèn)識。在這方面，規(guī)模最大的新供應(yīng)來源當(dāng)然是非常規(guī)油氣資源?；仡^來看，非常規(guī)油氣資源開發(fā)出現(xiàn)在高度競爭的 能源行業(yè)完全符合理論。但此前又有誰能夠未卜先知呢？If we loosely group together fuels that we may classify as “new”, sim

13、ply by virtue of having not been around a decade ago, including renewables motivated by newly foundOil reservesOtherNorth America FSUOPEC Trillion bbls 2.01.61.20.80.40.01983 1998 2013 1983* Includes biofuelsGas reservesTcm 20016012080Energy production growth 2013Annual change, Mtoe050100150Renewabl

14、es*US gas US oil World totalBP Statistical Review of World Energy© BP 2014climate change policies (and high fossil fuel prices), they ed for 81% of global primary energy productiongrowth last year.如果可歸類為“新 ”的各種 進(jìn)行大致匯總，其是十年前尚不 的 ，而且 由新出臺的氣候變化 （及居高不下的化石 價格）推動產(chǎn)生的可再生能源，“新”去年在全球一次能源生產(chǎn)增長中的比重為81%。Time

15、 to look at this in more .儲量和新型供應(yīng)源現(xiàn)在可以進(jìn)行更詳細(xì)的分析。萬億桶2.01.61.20.80.4石油儲量天然氣儲量萬億立方米其他洲 前蘇聯(lián)石油輸出國組織200160120802013年能源產(chǎn)量增長年度變化，百萬噸油當(dāng)量050100150可再生能源*天然氣石油0.0總計(jì)1983 1998 2013 1983* 生物BP世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒© BP 2014One trend that has not changed is reserves growth. It was always one of our more popular statistics, b

16、ut saying that proved reserves had increased, after yet another year of rapid oil, gas or coal consumption growth, created a lot more disbelief then than now. But increase they did: proved oil and gas reserves are up 27% and 19%, respectively, over the last ten years alone despite production growth

17、of 11% and 29%.沒有改變的一個趨勢是儲量的增長。儲量一直是較受歡迎的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，但在石油、天然氣和煤炭消費(fèi)經(jīng)歷了又一年的迅猛增長后，提出有所增加的說法在當(dāng)時引起的質(zhì)疑遠(yuǎn)多于現(xiàn)在。但儲量的確在增長：僅以過去的十年而論，石油和天然氣的分別增加27%和19%盡管產(chǎn)量增幅為11%和29%。2BP世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)2014年6月Energy and the economy能源和Energy and the economypossible to combine economic growth with stagnant or falling energy consumption.在過去十年里，雖然經(jīng)

18、合組織的 增長為18%，但其能源消費(fèi)保持平穩(wěn)。如果我們對一個特別合適的數(shù)據(jù)子集進(jìn)行分析，即歐盟當(dāng)前28個成員國去年的累計(jì) 增長為Annual change, %GDP growthEnergy and GDP in 2013Annual change, %54%，但能源消費(fèi)卻降至1988年的水平，這里不難提出一個耐人尋味的問題，是否可能，或在什么情況下，可以10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%World OECD8%Non-OECD6%10 year average4%2%OECD在增長的同時使能源消費(fèi)滯緩或有所下降？Meanwhile in the non-OECD, stronger econ

19、omic growth and industrialization necessitated continued consumption growth before, during and after the crisis. The relationship between economic and energy growth was quite similar in-4%Non-OECD0%2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013GDP EnergyGDP Energythe OECD and non-OECD the ten years before the crisis

20、.Source: includes data from Oxford EconomicsNote: GDP growth based on Purchasing Power Parity measure of GDP能源和GDP 增長年度變化, %10%BP Statistical Review of World Energy© BP 2014Energy and GDP in 2013年度變化, %8% After the crisis, and presumably related to large, energy intensive fiscal stimuli elsewhe

21、re, energy intensity improved faster in the OECD.在非經(jīng)合組織，較為強(qiáng)勁的 增長和工業(yè)化使能源消之前、期間和過后保持持續(xù)增長。在爆發(fā)前的十年，經(jīng)合組織與非經(jīng)合組織各自的與能源增長之間的世界經(jīng)合組織非經(jīng)合組織非經(jīng)合組織8%經(jīng)合組織非常類似。在爆發(fā)后，可能是在大規(guī)模、能源6%4%2%0%-2%-4%2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 20136% 10年平均4%2%0%GDP 能源GDP 能源強(qiáng)度的財政刺激影響下，經(jīng)合組織的能源強(qiáng)度更快。2013 broke this pattern. Global primary energy con

22、sumption accelerated from 1.8% to 2.3%, just a tick below the ten year average 2.5% p.a. and despite slackening economic growth. For the two subgroups, fortunes diverged.來源: 來自牛津的數(shù)據(jù)備注: GDP增長率是基于購買力平價（PPP）的數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算BP世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒© BP 2014Global economic growth has been softening since 2010, the year of b

23、ig economic stimuli. Last year it was 3%, a little weaker than 2012, and considerably below its ten year average 3.7% p.a., which now includes the years of boom and bust before and after the economic crisis. Economic performance softened in the OECD and non-OECD alike, but the economic “growth gap”

24、between them has narrowed since the crisis.2010年實(shí)行大規(guī)模刺激，之后全球 增長放緩。去年的增速為3%，略低于2012年，遠(yuǎn)低于過去十年平均水平3.7%，這十年 了前后的繁榮與年份。經(jīng)合組織與非經(jīng)合組織的 狀況均顯疲軟，但兩者間經(jīng)濟(jì)“增長差距”自以來有所縮小。Energy consumption followed economic growth, but with a twist.2013年打破了這種模式。雖然增長疲軟，但全球一次能源消費(fèi) 增長，從1.8%增至2.3%，僅略低于十年平均水平2.5%。對于兩個群體而言，命運(yùn)迥異。OECD energy

25、 demand rose by 1.2%, offsetting an equal decline the previous year, despite slowing and lacklustre economic performance almost on a par with GDP growth 1.3%. Non-OECD energy consumption, in contrast, grew by only 3.1%, the slowest rate for 13 years, except for the crisis year 2009 and subst ally be

26、low GDP growth 4.8%.盡管 狀況疲軟無力且乏善可陳，經(jīng)合組織的能源需求仍增長1.2%，抵消了此前一年同等幅度的下滑，幾乎與國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長持平1.3%。與之對照，非經(jīng)合組織的能 源消費(fèi)僅增長3.1%，在過去的13年里，這是除2009年 年份外的最低增速，而且遠(yuǎn)低于國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的增長4.8%。Energy consumption in 2013能源消費(fèi)與 增長的趨勢一致，但其間出現(xiàn)過一次波 動。of whichof which USEnergy consumption growth in the OECD has been flat over the last ten year

27、s, despite economic growth of 18%. And, if we take a particularly fitting sub-set, energy consumption in todays 28 member states of the European Union last year was back at the level of 1988, despite cumulative economic growth of 54% raising the intriguing question whether, or under which circumstan

28、ces, it may beGrowth by regionAnnual change, %-3% 0% 3% 6% 9%Africa Middle EastS & C America Europe & EurasiaAsia Pacificof whichNorth Americaof which USGrowth by fuelAnnual change, %12%10 year average0% 3% 6% 9%16.3%-3%RenewablesNuclear Hydro Gas Coalof whichOilof which USUSBP Statistical R

29、eview of World Energy© BP 2014BP世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)2014年6月32013年能源消費(fèi)growth. We will discuss thes in a minute.即使只看全球 需求總量，上述效應(yīng)也顯而易見。中 國造成了煤炭需求增長的相對疲軟，而推動了石油需求分區(qū)域增長年度變化, %非洲中東中南美洲歐洲及歐亞大陸亞太地區(qū)其中：洲國10年平均-3% 0% 3% 6% 9%年度變化, %可再生能源核能水電 天然氣煤炭其中石油其U國-3%分 增長保持較為強(qiáng)勁的增長。本文稍后將進(jìn)行詳細(xì)討論。12%0% 3% 6% 9%16.3%All told, the dive

30、rging performance of and the US caused the “energy gap” between non-OECD and OECD energy consumption growth to narrow sharply. It became the smallest since 2000.其中：North America, the only region globally to show其國SBP世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒© BP 2014above-總而言之， 之間截然不同的表現(xiàn)使非經(jīng)合組織與經(jīng)合組織的能源消費(fèi)增長之間的“能源缺口”大幅縮小，達(dá)到2000年以來

31、的最低水平。average growth, drove the OECD acceleration, with energy demand growing even faster than GDP. The non-OECD slowdown was concentrated in Asia, with energy consumption growth below 4% for only the second time in 12 years, while economic growth held steady 5.2%.作為能源需求增長高出平均水平的全球唯一區(qū)域， 推動了經(jīng)合組織需求的增長

32、， 能源需求的增速甚至超過了國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的增長。非經(jīng)合組織的增速放緩主要體現(xiàn)在亞洲，其能源消費(fèi)增長在過去12年中第二次出現(xiàn)低于4%的水平，而 增長保持5.2%。The contrasting experiences of North America and Asia Pacific reflect the differing fortunes of the worlds largest energy consumers, and the US. Together, theyfor more than 70% of world energy consumption growth.和亞太地區(qū)的鮮明

33、對照反映出世界最大的能源消費(fèi)國 和的不同發(fā)展軌跡。兩國的能源消費(fèi)增長之和占全球增長的70%以上72.52%。In 2013 energy growth slipped from 7.0% to 4.7%, and thus well below its ten year trend 8.6% p.a. although the Peoples Republic reported unchanged economic growth of 7.7%. The slowdown in growth was concentrated in coal but is visible in oil as w

34、ell. Meanwhile, US primary energy consumption grew by 2.9%, rebounding from a 2.8% decline in 2012. Much of this is due to weather effects; but beyond the weather, there are signs of underlying strength in US industrial sector energy use, in particular of oil products.2013年， 的能源消費(fèi)增長從7.0%降至4.7%，因而遠(yuǎn)低于

35、其十年趨勢水平年均8.6%盡管 所報告的增長仍高達(dá)7.7%。 的能源消費(fèi)增長放緩主要體現(xiàn)在煤炭領(lǐng)域，但也石油消費(fèi)。的一次能源消費(fèi)增長2.9%， 繼2012年下滑2.8%后出現(xiàn)反彈。這種增長在很大程度上源自天氣因素；但除天氣之外， 工業(yè)部門的能源消費(fèi)出現(xiàn)根本性的增長跡象，特別是對石油 的需求反彈。The effects are visible, even if we only look at global fuel aggregates. is responsible for the relative weakness of coal growth, and the US for the rel

36、ative strength of oilWhat can the energy data tell us? Are these data points a harbinger of things to come or just an aberration? Too early to tell is the appropriate answer. In our textbooks, energy demand is the consequence of economic growth. In reality, where data measurement is less than perfec

37、t, energy data often allows fors about real economic activity. In the present context, it is easy to see how abundant domestic resources in the US would eventually give a boost to the economy, not just to energy demand. It is much harder to see how the fundamental restructuring underwaycould leave a

38、n imprint only on energy demand without, eventually, affecting economic performance as well.上述能源數(shù)據(jù)能夠揭示什么要素？這些數(shù)據(jù)是未來發(fā)展的預(yù)兆還是偶爾出現(xiàn)的偏差？正確的 是現(xiàn)在下結(jié)論為時過早。在教科書中，能源需求是 發(fā)展的結(jié)果。在現(xiàn)實(shí)中，盡管數(shù)據(jù)測量并非完美，但能源數(shù)據(jù)通常有助于對實(shí)體 活動作出結(jié)論。在當(dāng)前背景下，不難看出 富饒的國內(nèi)資源將如何最終推動 發(fā)展，而不僅是 能源需求。更難以琢磨的是， 方興未艾的基本結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整如何可以只改變能源需求，而 最終影響績效。Lets look at these d

39、evelopments fuel by fuel.讓我們根據(jù)各種對上述動態(tài)進(jìn)行分析。4BP世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)2014年6月Fuel by fuel各種Oil石油The oil market in 2013Oil prices and volatilityProduction and consumption growth增長這與2012年的動態(tài)恰好相反。因此庫存量下滑。And 2013 was yet another year of turbulence in oil production. We are all familiar with the ongoing story of rapid gro

40、wth in the US; but it was also yet another year of significant supply disruptions, most notably in North Africa and the Middle East.2013年還是石油生產(chǎn)出現(xiàn)的又一個年頭。我們對美國產(chǎn)量迅猛增長的故事耳熟能詳，但2013年也再次出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重的供應(yīng)減產(chǎn)，尤以北非和中東為甚。So why did prices remain so stable? We will investigatePrice volatility (RHS) Oil price$/bbl 1201008

41、0604020Volatility*90%75%60%45%30%15%Annual change, Mb/d 2.5Production Consumption2.01.51.00.5in, starting with global oil consumption.那么，價格何以保持 ？詳細(xì)探究，首先來看全球石油消費(fèi)情況。00%19691980199120022013Source: includes data from Platts* Three year standard deviation2013年石油市場石油價格和波動0.020122013BP Statistical Review o

42、f World Energy© BP 2014產(chǎn)量和消費(fèi)增長Oil consumptionOil consumptionOECDNon-OECDMb/d 55504540Kb/dLargest changes in 2013Non-OECD OECDUSBrazil RussiaS. ArabiaItaly Mexico Israel Spain Japan-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400/桶價格波動（右軸） 石油價格12010080604020波動*90%75%60%45%30%15%年度變化，百萬桶/日產(chǎn)量 消費(fèi)2.5 2.01.51.00.53530252

43、0200320052007200920112013BP Statistical Review of World Energy© BP 2014019691980199120020%20130.020122013石油消費(fèi) 來源: 來自普氏(Platts)的數(shù)據(jù)* 三年數(shù)據(jù)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差BP世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒© BP 2014百萬桶/日經(jīng)合組織非經(jīng)合組織55石油消費(fèi)千桶/日2013年變化最大的 巴西俄羅斯意大利墨西哥以色列西班牙-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400Oil prices over the last three years have been high b

44、ut remarkably stable. In 2013, they dipped slightly, with Dated Brent averaging almost $109 $108.66, $3 below the average of 2011 and 2012.This has been the third consecutive year of prices above $100, a first in both real and nominal terms; and it has been the three year period with the lowest pric

45、e volatility since 1970.504540353025202003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013非經(jīng)合組織經(jīng)合組織BP世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒在過去三年里，石油價格居高不下但非常 。2013 年，油價略微下跌，現(xiàn)貨均價接近109 108.66美元，比2011年和2012年的平均價格低出3 。石油價格連續(xù)第三年超過100 ，而實(shí)際及名義油價首度雙雙100 大關(guān)；這三年是1970年以來油價波動幅度最小的時期。The stability in oil prices betrays significant changes in the underlying balance

46、 between consumption and production. In 2013, global consumption growth exceeded production growth by a wide marginthe exact opposite of the dynamics in 2012. As a result, inventories fell.的石油價格沒有體現(xiàn)出消費(fèi)及生產(chǎn)之間基本平衡狀況發(fā)生的 變化。2013年，全球消費(fèi)增長遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過生產(chǎn)© BP 2014Global oil consumption last year rose by 1.4 Mb/d

47、 in 2013, or 1.4%, higher than both 2012 and the ten year average. As has become the norm, growth was driven by the emerging economies of the non-OECD, which for the first time ed for the majority of global consumption. OECDdemand remained stagnant.2013年，全球石油消費(fèi)增長140萬桶/日，即1.4%，高于2012年的增長率及過去十年的平均水平。正

48、如司空見慣的情況一樣，增長的驅(qū)動因素是非經(jīng)合組織的新興體，它們在全球消費(fèi)中的比重首次居多。經(jīng)合組織的需求仍然停滯不前。In the OECD, the US stood out as its consumption grew by 400 Kb/d, the fastest growth of any country last year BP世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)2014年6月5and (in volume terms) outpacing for the first time since 1999. In contrast, consumption in the rest of the OECD fe

49、ll by a larger tha age 380 Kb/d, led by a 160 Kb/d decline in Japan, where oil was backed out of power generation by renewables, coal and improved efficiency. European2013年各類增幅2013年增幅分 的石油消千桶/日600千桶/日-1000100200consumption dropped by 130 Kb/d, with the largest declines seen in the countries most aff

50、ected by the recession, such as Spain, Italy and Greece.400200中質(zhì)餾分油 液化石油氣* 和石腦油-2000就經(jīng)合組織而言，脫穎而出，消費(fèi)增長40萬 10年平均中質(zhì)餾分油其他桶/日，為去年增速最快的 （按量計(jì)算）自1999年以來首度超過。與此對照，其他經(jīng)合組織體的消費(fèi)降幅超過平均水平，為38萬桶/日， 首當(dāng)其沖地減少16非經(jīng)合組織 經(jīng)合組織* 乙烷10年平均BP世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒© BP 2014萬桶/日，其可再生能源和煤炭在發(fā)電行業(yè)中擠占了石油的份額，以及能效有所提高。歐洲的消費(fèi)下降13萬桶/日，受 影響最大的 跌幅最大，例

51、如西班牙、意大利和希臘。Non-OECD consumption rose by 1.4 Mb/d or 3.1%, well below the ten year average 3.9% p.a. This weakness was especially pronounced, where demand grew by only 390 Kb/d the lowest since the recession in 2009. Growth 40 Kb/d fell to its lowest level since 2001 as subsidies were reduced while

52、in the Middle East, growth was limited by civil unrest and rising use of natural gas inSaudi Arabias power sector.非經(jīng)合組織的消費(fèi)增長140萬桶/日，即3.1%，遠(yuǎn)低于十年平均水平3.9%。 的消費(fèi)疲態(tài)最為明顯，需求僅增加39萬桶/日為2009年發(fā)生 以來的最低水平。印度在削減補(bǔ)貼后，增幅4萬桶/日降至2001年以來的最低水平，而中東地區(qū)的增長受到內(nèi)部及發(fā)電部門增加天然氣使用等因素的制約。So far in 2014, global oil demand growth has been slower due to more modest demand growth in the US and a further slowdown.2014年迄今為止，由于需求的增長幅度減小及 需求的進(jìn)一步放緩，全球石油需求增長。Oil con