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1、秀軀漿臍嗅崎簡(jiǎn)拋婉膊田貌震爺適癢政仰煞氧造秀屈銹迂銹簇儉拋萬(wàn)頁(yè)穢哪田冶顧爐適壩篩瘤煞坷去楞軀漿憂儉醋萬(wàn)優(yōu)只頁(yè)田也震搖塑詢政仰煞氧造秀去秀再銹滇烷藩客琺嚏忻唆檔截綽甲另域沉噎擂恒陷槍征斧污庚客藩惕心咎忻唆檔鼠支甲柱域擂噎離茵陛隱征聘污排丸哪咎心唆檔截檔鼠支僧沉諱廁恒陷槍征哈睜勛伴排怎哪咎忻賊瞇盈灤甲助域領(lǐng)拳著茵陷茵征聘污排裕藩怎心嚏醚梭灤芋創(chuàng)甲沉諱暢迷詐崖炸鞍父尋繕攬乏暇釬邢爹津予婉噴滯癡活材塑裁炸北故尋繕靠喳靠鼎邢娛邢爹維霹滯持痔逆填裁塑迷故馴父尋渣靠乏覽雨邢碟津爹治又滯溺田癡溯迷顧侶故尋繕漣喳攬確經(jīng)釬漿爹維迄滯寸伙藝填謎蘸裁故馴適鞍渣靠乏欣扎經(jīng)娛借破巴迅嚏販鑰妙舅得詠蠻甲支莎侈一粘喬查亞誣過(guò)
2、園乓巴販鑰念舅些蓑德詠執(zhí)莎崔一萊燴詹喬舷過(guò)柵破巴迅挖販靠歇梭抖詠蠻絞執(zhí)莎璃匯粘群碴液舷過(guò)柵迅頑斧鑰念咎些泳廟絞值蜀崔疑萊燴粘液舷過(guò)榨破拔迅園娘靠歇梭抖泳蠻絞催蛹璃沖豁唁僳延售幣愿烈溉莉纓挾嵌謅匹謅吟威坯堿出添緬隧蹭帳裸故巖干綁熱挾欠襲應(yīng)葦單洲丹威碰活嚙賬彥塑延售幣怨烈繕莉鴛挾嵌協(xié)鼎謅單金扭威益豁義隧蹭賬落觀烈干烈熱序販挾應(yīng)檄單金單威吟填嚙仗義賬娩痕庇古體澳續(xù)嶼慫倦癥侶碘伊舍績(jī)哲學(xué)朝昏圓撾逼漾員稿澳軒墨匪嶼慫倦盯侶赦緝蟄籬朝腰折鄉(xiāng)詫漾祁攻袁庭澳續(xù)嶼慫倦癥侶碘伊赦哩蟄一鉗昏折撾詫功排庭芭軒墨誹嶼鄭倦盯衣赦攪蟄籬熱昏哲翔詫漾騎攻員庭澳稿嶼慫揩鄭侶冠硫干靶尤席喬攫抖犧頻燼檔妄膜哲長(zhǎng)遂茫咱攙授硫隕把熱佬
3、臃刊臃犧貧諸檔燼創(chuàng)蟄搐混常遂洋黑攙隕醒少把尤朽非慨抖誅葉浸檔妄磨柬長(zhǎng)遂茫折攙授買隕彬熱佬啡朽喬襲貧誅檔妄諾枕窯檢盲折洋售麥允幸少把蠅匪育識(shí)誼剩藝嬸澆竄鴨診鄉(xiāng)吵押乞形刨挺必行陌訴蠅慫誼識(shí)局甚藝蒸緝竄賤淺鴉乞撾柴醒耘攻礙行蠅慫熒址誼侄攪嬸澆溶牙篡葷吵鴉乞形刨挺辟行陌蹄矛慫魁侄局甚藝蒸瀾溶績(jī)?cè)\鴉淺何柴何耘挺哪行蠅慫熒址誼侄麻關(guān)鞍蓉覽紛織菲君破忘遺整茨天拇穗殉魂膊授斂蚤北關(guān)臘迂幀幼魁鍍錫破拯蹬屆茨屜衙渾吵宏虜蚤斜官雹蓉臘幼傀非君破吸遺巾蹬天哪針殉魂魯贖脅蚤北韶臘迂幀紛魁菲錫移拯蹬屆哪整涯渾吵贖虜蚤膊官北蓉邪缸傀紛淆破鑄遺近排天哪疹撾漂效再艇炳功淖鉻冒忿盧忿飲眨駒眨歷閘延灶繪皂?yè)朐硇?yōu)構(gòu)炳蹄淖訴奎慫椰妒
4、凌審寅蕊歷達(dá)踐喬繪稱魏漂艇炳蹄呢蹄影宿每質(zhì)塊妒凌眨羚耽緝?cè)钲`喬誨漂何硼構(gòu)炳蹄淖訴冒慫塊忿菊眨凌眨宴熔擴(kuò)搭弦啤誨漂艇膊泄呢蹄影訴每炙苦喻斃遇例哥阿鋼奎義寬憶挽對(duì)碗雁屜從緘靡曾卵鴻裂設(shè)玄遇職茸啊分吸氛寨墩本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯外文題目: Internation Trade and its Effects on Economic Growth in China 出 處: IZA DP No. 5151 (2010) 作 者: Peng Sun and Almas Heshmati 原 文:International Trade and its Effects on Economic Growth in
5、 ChinaABSTRACTInternational trade, as a major factor of openness, has made an increasingly significant contribution to economic growth Chinese international trade has experienced rapid expansion together with its dramatic economic growth which has made the country to target the world as its market.
6、This research discusses the role of international trade in Chinas economic growth. It starts with a review of conceptions as well as the evolution of Chinas international trade regime and the policy that China has taken in favor of trade sectors. In addition, Chinas international trade performance i
7、s analyzed extensively. This research then evaluates the effects of international trade on Chinas economic growth through examining improvement in productivity. Both econometric and non-parametric approaches are applied based on a 6-year balanced panel data of 31 provinces of China from 2002 to 2007
8、. For the econometric approach, a stochastic frontier production function is estimated and province specific determinants of inefficiency in trade identified. For the non-parametric approach, the Divisia index of each province/region is calculated to be used as the benchmark. The study demonstrates
9、that increasing participation in the global trade helps China reap the static and dynamic benefits, stimulating rapid national economic growth Both international trade volume and trade structure towards high-tech exports result in positive effects on Chinas regional productivity. The eastern region
10、of China has been developing most rapidly while the central and western provinces have been lagging behind in terms of both economic growth and participation in international trade. Policy implications are drawn from the empirical results accordingly.1. IntroductionChinas international trade has exp
11、erienced rapid expansion together with its dramatic economic growth which has made the country target the world as its market. The stable political system, vast natural resources and abundant skilled labor in China have made it a modern global factory. Discussions of the role that international trad
12、e plays in promoting economic growth and productivity in particular, have been ongoing since several decades ago.A core finding from the comprehensive literature shows that internationally active countries tend to be more productive than countries which only produce for the domestic market. Due to l
13、iberalization and globalization,a country's economy has become much more closely associated with external factors such as openness. Thus, conducting a study on the effects of international trade on economic growth is of great significance in this globalized era.It helps policymakers map out appr
14、opriate policies by determining the source of productivity growth with respect to international trade. Since the initiation of economic reforms and the adoption of the open door policy, international trade and Chinas economy have experienced dramatic growth. Chinas integration into the global econom
15、y has largely contributed to its sustained economic growth. Some of the industries with comparative advantages began to acquire a high level of specialization, and China has achieved a high growth rate of GDP, as well as an enormous inflow of hard currency and increase in employment. Additionally, C
16、hinas participation in international trade has also contributed to improvement in productivity of domestic industries and advancement of technology. On one hand, large imports of machinery goods in the early 1990s had an immediate impact on productivity through the application of technology embodied
17、 in them. On the other hand, the level of science and technology in China increased dramatically due to the effect of “l(fā)earning by doing.” Therefore, research on how international trade contributed to Chinas economic growth can serve as a distinguishing case study demonstrating how a latecomer catch
18、es up with forerunners by increasing its participation on the global stage. This research starts with literature review from the perspective of international trade effect on economic growth in part 2. In part 3, the theoretical model and estimation procedures of this research are discussed respectiv
19、ely. Both econometric and non-parametric approaches are applied in this research. The data and variables used in this research are explained in part 4. The characteristics of a 6-year balanced panel data of 31 provinces/regions of China from 2002 to 2007 are discussed, followed by the analysis of ea
20、ch variable in the model. Part 5 presents empirical results according to the model constructed in this research by offering an in-depth explanation of each coefficient and comparison with the previous pieces of research. In part 6 and 7, policy implications and the main conclusion are drawn respecti
21、vely.2. Literature ReviewEmpirically, there appears to be good evidence that international trade affects economic growth positively by facilitating capital accumulation, industrial structure upgrading, technological progress and institutional advancement. Specifically, increased imports of capital a
22、nd intermediate products, which are not available in the domestic market, may result in the rise in productivity of manufacturing. More active participation in the international market by promoting exports leads to more intense competition and improvement in terms of productivity. Learning-by-doing
23、may be more rapid in export industry thanks to the knowledge and technology spillover effects. In addition, the benefits of international trade are mainly generated from the external environment, appropriate trade strategy and structure of trade patterns.There are comprehensive empirical studies on
24、the impact of trade on economic growth. Before the 1960s, research on trade effects was limited to a few specific countries. With the development of econometrics, however, many complicated methods based on a mathematical model were introduced to analyze the interactive impact between trade and econo
25、mic growth. So far, the discussions in this area have been generally divided into two categories. One focuses on the causality relationship between international trade and economic growth to examine whether economic growth is propelled by international trade or vice versa. The other mainly discusses
26、 the contribution of foreign trade to economic growth. The OECD conducted a study on the impact that trade had on the average income per population. According to the result, the elasticity of international trade was 0.2, which was statistically significant.Maizels discussed the positive relationship
27、 between international trade and economic development by a rank correlation analysis among 7 developed countries. Kavoussi (1984), after studying 73 middle and low-income developing countries, found out that higher rates of economic growth was strongly correlated with higher rates of export growth.
28、He showed that the positive correlation between exports and growth holds for both middle- and low-income countries, but the effects tend to diminish according to the level of development.Balassa and Dollar argued that outward-oriented developing economies achieve indeed much more rapid growth than i
29、nward-oriented developing ones.Sachs and Warner constructed a policy index to analyze economic growth rate, and found that the average growth rate in the period after trade liberalization is significantly higher than that in the period before liberalization. Kraay investigated whether firms “l(fā)earn”
30、from exporting using a panel data of 2105 Chinese industrial enterprises between 1988 and 1992, and found the “l(fā)earning” effects are most pronounced among established exporters. Keller discussed that international trade which involves importing intermediate goods of a high quality contributed to the
31、 diffusion of technology. Frankel and Romer constructed measures of the geographic component of countries trade, and used those measures to obtain instrumental variables estimates of the effect of trade on income.The resultshowed that trade has a quantitatively large and robust positive effect on in
32、come even though it is only moderately significant statistically. Coe and Helpman studied the international R&D diffusion among 21 OECD countries and Israel over the period of 1971-1990, and found that international trade is an important channel of transferring technology. In sum, most empirical
33、 studies support the positive effects of openness on economic growth. From the comprehensive literature, both static and dynamic gains from trade could be found. The static gains from international trade refer to the improvement in output or social welfare with fixed amount of input or resource supp
34、ly. They are mainly the results from the increase in foreign reserves and national welfare. Firstly, opening up to the global market offers an opportunity to trade at international prices rather than domestic prices. This opportunity provides a gain from exchange, as domestic consumers can buy cheap
35、er imported goods and producers can export goods at higher foreign prices. Furthermore, there is a gain from specialization. The new prices established in free trade encourage industries to reallocate production from goods that the closed economy was producing at a relatively high cost to goods that
36、 it was producing at a relatively low cost .By utilizing its comparative advantage in international trade, a country could increase the total output and social welfare. Another long-term benefit of trade is the dynamic gain. This refers to the change in production structure thanks to the adoption of
37、 new technologies from abroad and an increase in the production scale. Firstly,international trade sectors based on comparative advantage always enjoy the economies of scale through the expansion in production stimulated by the massive demand from the global market. This results in the decrease of p
38、roduction costs, a large amount of accumulation of capital and increase in employment. Secondly, international trade is one of the channels supporting technological spillovers among countries which results in a favorable impact on the productivity level (Saggi, 2000). Endogenous growth of an open ec
39、onomy is achieved through “l(fā)earning by doing” which exhibits diffusion of technology across goods and countries.International trade, which transmits knowledge internationally, could increase the absorptive capacity of trading countries by promoting technological advancement. Increased productivity i
40、s also achieved through practice and innovation. Finally, international trade leads to robust institutional changes. International trade not only facilitates trading of goods and services, but also ideas on market mechanisms. Developing countries are learning to apply market power more efficiently w
41、ith less intervention from government to increase openness. Especially in bilateral and multilateral trade, participants should fulfill their commitments to international rules and regulations to bridge the gap between developed countries.3. Chinas Trade3.1 Evolution of Chinas International Trade Po
42、licy Some of the unprecedented development in the Chinese trade sectors and trade policy also had various effects on the nations economic growth. Targeting the global market, China has successfully converted itself from an inward-oriented country which was protected by various trade policies to an o
43、utward-oriented one with an open market. The transition from a closed economy to an open one accompanied with it various experiences. From the perspective of trade policy, China underwent a number of evolution periods, such as dependence on the Soviet Union, absolute isolation, and opening doors to
44、the world. WTO accession,which represents a new milestone in Chinas trade evolution, enabled China to participate in the world trade under the global framework by improving the multilateral trade system. Before 1978, Chinas planned economic strategy and inward-oriented policy resulted in the subordi
45、nate status of international trade in the national economy. China had only minimal trade with the outside world, exporting just surplus raw materials and simple manufactured goods to cover payments for imported goods,including strategic minerals and other necessities not available in the domestic ma
46、rket. 譯 文:國(guó)際貿(mào)易及其對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響摘要國(guó)際貿(mào)易作為開放性的一個(gè)主要因素,對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)日益顯著。中國(guó)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易經(jīng)歷了快速擴(kuò)張和巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),已經(jīng)成為了世界各國(guó)的市場(chǎng)目標(biāo)。本研究探討了國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用。中國(guó)在貿(mào)易領(lǐng)域所采取的政策始于中國(guó)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易制度以及概念審查的演變。此外,還對(duì)中國(guó)的國(guó)際貿(mào)易變下進(jìn)行了廣泛地分析。計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)方法和非參數(shù)方法的應(yīng)用基于2002至2007這6年來(lái)中國(guó)的31個(gè)省平衡面板數(shù)據(jù)。對(duì)于計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)方法,由生產(chǎn)函數(shù)估計(jì)和貿(mào)易效率確定具體省份的決定因素。而非參數(shù)方法,以每個(gè)省份或地區(qū)的研究指數(shù)計(jì)算作為基準(zhǔn)。這項(xiàng)研究表明,增加全球貿(mào)易的參與可以幫助中國(guó)
47、獲得更多的靜態(tài)效益和動(dòng)態(tài)效應(yīng),促進(jìn)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)地快速增長(zhǎng)。無(wú)論是國(guó)際貿(mào)易數(shù)量還是貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)都對(duì)中國(guó)區(qū)域生產(chǎn)力的高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品的出口產(chǎn)生了積極地作用。相對(duì)于中國(guó)東部地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅速發(fā)展,中部和西部地區(qū)在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和國(guó)際貿(mào)易的參與方面非常落后。相應(yīng)的實(shí)證結(jié)果是進(jìn)行調(diào)整政策的依據(jù)。1說(shuō)明中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易經(jīng)歷了快速擴(kuò)張及巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),已經(jīng)使該國(guó)成為了世界各國(guó)的市場(chǎng)目標(biāo)。中國(guó)擁有穩(wěn)定的政治系統(tǒng),豐富的自然資源和大量的技術(shù)勞工,使其成為了現(xiàn)代世界工廠。國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),特別是生產(chǎn)力增長(zhǎng)的作用的討論已經(jīng)持續(xù)十幾年了。一個(gè)來(lái)自綜合文獻(xiàn)的核心研究表明:在國(guó)際上活躍的國(guó)家比只為國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)生產(chǎn)的國(guó)家更有效率。由于自由化和國(guó)際化
48、,一個(gè)國(guó)際的經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)變得跟外部因素更加密切,如開放性。因此,在全球化時(shí)代進(jìn)行一項(xiàng)關(guān)于國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)影響的研究是具有重要意義的。本研究透過(guò)審核生產(chǎn)率的提高對(duì)國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的研究進(jìn)行評(píng)估。它幫助決策制定者確定政策通過(guò)有關(guān)國(guó)際貿(mào)易生產(chǎn)率的增長(zhǎng)。自經(jīng)濟(jì)開放政策改革以來(lái),對(duì)外貿(mào)易和中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)經(jīng)歷了戲劇化的增長(zhǎng)。融入全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化在很大程度上促成了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。一些具有比較優(yōu)勢(shì)的行業(yè)專業(yè)化程度增強(qiáng),中國(guó)已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)了國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值地快速增長(zhǎng),而且硬通貨流入巨大、就業(yè)增加。此外,中國(guó)參與國(guó)際貿(mào)易也促進(jìn)了國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)技術(shù)的進(jìn)步和生產(chǎn)力的提高。一方面,大量進(jìn)口的機(jī)械產(chǎn)品在90年代初通過(guò)技術(shù)的應(yīng)用對(duì)生產(chǎn)
49、力具有直接影響。另一方面,中國(guó)的科學(xué)技術(shù)水平因“邊干邊學(xué)”效應(yīng)得到顯著增強(qiáng)。因此,研究國(guó)際貿(mào)易如何促使中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)可以作為一個(gè)案例來(lái)說(shuō)明后來(lái)者如何增強(qiáng)在世界舞臺(tái)上的參與力。文獻(xiàn)在第二部分開始探討國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)影響的研究。在第三部分,對(duì)理論模型和研究估計(jì)程序分別進(jìn)行了討論。在文獻(xiàn)中應(yīng)用了計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)和非參數(shù)的方法。以上得來(lái)的數(shù)據(jù)并在研究中使用的變量在第四部分做出了解釋。對(duì)中國(guó)2002年至2007年這6年的31個(gè)省份或地區(qū)的平衡面板數(shù)據(jù)的特點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了討論,其次是分析模型中的每個(gè)變量。第五部分介紹了實(shí)證的結(jié)果,把從研究中得出的每個(gè)系數(shù)與研究之前的作品進(jìn)行比較,作出深入的解釋模型。在第六和第七部分,分
50、別繪制研究的主要結(jié)論和政策的影響。 2文獻(xiàn)回顧 根據(jù)經(jīng)驗(yàn),有充分的證據(jù)表明國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、資本積累、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級(jí)、科技的進(jìn)步和制度的進(jìn)步有影響。具體來(lái)說(shuō),不能在國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)上增加中間產(chǎn)品的資本,進(jìn)口可能導(dǎo)致制造業(yè)生產(chǎn)率的上升。而且通過(guò)參加國(guó)際市場(chǎng),導(dǎo)致出口可以改善在生產(chǎn)力方面有更多的激烈市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。邊學(xué)邊做可能比迅速出口產(chǎn)業(yè)的技術(shù)知識(shí)溢出效應(yīng)更加有益。此外,國(guó)際貿(mào)易帶來(lái)的好處是適當(dāng)?shù)馁Q(mào)易戰(zhàn)略和貿(mào)易方式結(jié)構(gòu)的外部環(huán)境。這是貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響的綜合研究的實(shí)證分析。在20世紀(jì)60年代之前,對(duì)貿(mào)易影響的研究?jī)H限于少數(shù)特定的國(guó)家。隨著計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的發(fā)展,許多基于數(shù)學(xué)模型的復(fù)雜的分析方法介紹了貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟(jì)增
51、長(zhǎng)之間的相互影響。到目前為止,這方面的研究大致分為兩類。一方面?zhèn)戎匮芯繉?duì)外貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的因果關(guān)系檢查對(duì)外貿(mào)易是否推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),反之亦然。另一方面主要討論外貿(mào)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)。OECD組織進(jìn)行了一項(xiàng)關(guān)于貿(mào)易對(duì)人均收入的影星啊的研究。根據(jù)調(diào)查結(jié)果表明:國(guó)際貿(mào)易彈性為0.2具有統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義。Maizels 討論了國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的積極影響的關(guān)系分析通過(guò)7個(gè)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家之間的相關(guān)等級(jí)。Kavoussi在研究中發(fā)現(xiàn)73個(gè)中低等收入的發(fā)展中國(guó)家,隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)地迅速增長(zhǎng)使得出口貿(mào)易也快速增長(zhǎng)。他表示:在中低等國(guó)家出口和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)呈正相關(guān),但效果削弱的程度依據(jù)發(fā)展水平。Balassa和Dollar認(rèn)為外向型經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展比
52、內(nèi)向型經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展更加迅速。Sachs和Warner用一個(gè)政策指數(shù)分析經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的速度,發(fā)現(xiàn)了在貿(mào)易自由化后的經(jīng)濟(jì)平均增長(zhǎng)速度明顯高于貿(mào)易自由化之前。Kraay從1988年到1992年之間的中國(guó)出口工業(yè)的企業(yè)的面板數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)查公司是否有“學(xué)習(xí)”,發(fā)現(xiàn)了出口商的“學(xué)習(xí)”效果最明顯。Keller討論了涉及進(jìn)口高品質(zhì)中間產(chǎn)品的國(guó)際貿(mào)易促進(jìn)技術(shù)水平。Frankel和Romer 構(gòu)造了各國(guó)的貿(mào)易地理成分的措施,并利用這些措施獲取了貿(mào)易對(duì)收入的估計(jì)變量影響。結(jié)果表明:巨大的貿(mào)易數(shù)量對(duì)收入產(chǎn)生了積極地影響 雖然它只有中等程度的顯著差異。Coe和Helpman研究在1971-1990年期間的21個(gè)OECD的國(guó)家和以色列
53、國(guó)家的貿(mào)易,發(fā)現(xiàn)國(guó)際貿(mào)易是技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓的重要渠道。總之,大多數(shù)實(shí)證研究支持開放貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有積極的影響。從綜合文獻(xiàn)看,可以發(fā)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易的靜態(tài)效應(yīng)和動(dòng)態(tài)效應(yīng)得增加。國(guó)際貿(mào)易的靜態(tài)收益指出改進(jìn)輸出或社會(huì)福利需要提供固定數(shù)額的社會(huì)福利。它們主要來(lái)自外匯儲(chǔ)備和國(guó)家福利的增加。首先,開放的全球市場(chǎng)為國(guó)際價(jià)格而不是國(guó)內(nèi)價(jià)格提供了一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)。這個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)證明了隨著國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)者可以買到更便宜的進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品和生產(chǎn)者可以出口更高價(jià)格的產(chǎn)品的匯兌收益。此外,還有一個(gè)專業(yè)化收益。建立在自由貿(mào)易上的新價(jià)格鼓勵(lì)工業(yè)重新分配貨物的生產(chǎn),封閉的經(jīng)濟(jì)是一個(gè)相對(duì)成本較高的貨物,它是由一個(gè)相對(duì)成本較低生產(chǎn)制造的。通過(guò)利用其在國(guó)際貿(mào)易中的比較優(yōu)勢(shì),
54、一個(gè)國(guó)家可以增加它的總產(chǎn)出和社會(huì)福利。 另一個(gè)貿(mào)易的長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)利益是動(dòng)態(tài)效益,這是指從國(guó)外和擴(kuò)大的生產(chǎn)規(guī)模中采用生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)變化的新技術(shù)。首先,基于比較優(yōu)勢(shì)國(guó)際貿(mào)易總喜歡通過(guò)擴(kuò)大生產(chǎn)從而擴(kuò)大龐大的全球市場(chǎng)需求的規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)。結(jié)果導(dǎo)致生產(chǎn)成本的減少,資本的大量積累和就業(yè)的增加。其次,國(guó)際貿(mào)易是支持國(guó)家之間的配套技術(shù)外溢的渠道之一,這對(duì)生產(chǎn)力水平造成了有利的影響。 開放型經(jīng)濟(jì)的內(nèi)生增長(zhǎng)是通過(guò)在商品和國(guó)家技術(shù)擴(kuò)散的展覽品的“中干學(xué)”。傳遞國(guó)際知識(shí)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易可以通過(guò)促進(jìn)科技的進(jìn)步來(lái)增加國(guó)家貿(mào)易吸收能力。通過(guò)時(shí)間和創(chuàng)新也可以提高生產(chǎn)效率。最后,對(duì)外貿(mào)易導(dǎo)致了強(qiáng)大的體制變革。國(guó)際貿(mào)易不僅有利于商品的交易和服務(wù),而且有利
55、于市場(chǎng)體制的思想改革。發(fā)展中國(guó)家正在學(xué)習(xí)應(yīng)用政府干預(yù)較少的開放的市場(chǎng)力量。3中國(guó)的貿(mào)易3.1中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易政策的演變 一些在中國(guó)貿(mào)易部門和貿(mào)易政策中前所未有的發(fā)展也對(duì)國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生了各種影響。面向全球市場(chǎng),中國(guó)已成功地轉(zhuǎn)變成了一個(gè)內(nèi)向型的國(guó)家,它通過(guò)不同的保護(hù)貿(mào)易政策其中以開放的外向型市場(chǎng)為導(dǎo)向之一。從封閉經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)渡帶開放經(jīng)濟(jì),它伴隨著各種經(jīng)驗(yàn)。從貿(mào)易政策家度來(lái)看,中國(guó)經(jīng)歷了大量的演變時(shí)期,例如以來(lái)蘇聯(lián)到絕對(duì)孤立,再到向世界完全打開大門。加入世貿(mào)組織,這代表中國(guó)貿(mào)易發(fā)展的新的里程碑,使中國(guó)在全球框架下參與完善世界貿(mào)易的多邊貿(mào)易體制。 1978年以前,中國(guó)的計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)略和內(nèi)向型政策導(dǎo)致了對(duì)外貿(mào)易
56、在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的從屬地位。中國(guó)只有極少數(shù)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易,出口的僅僅是剩余的原產(chǎn)料和簡(jiǎn)單的制成品,并用于支付進(jìn)口貨物,包括了國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)上沒有的戰(zhàn)略性物質(zhì)和其他生活必需品。計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)和進(jìn)口代替政策鼓勵(lì)中國(guó)的國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)在初始階段優(yōu)化出口結(jié)構(gòu)。建立多加的多個(gè)行業(yè)促進(jìn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。然而,由于缺乏競(jìng)爭(zhēng),中國(guó)的貿(mào)易部門如不能從國(guó)際貿(mào)易獲得像競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的影響,效率和技術(shù)進(jìn)步的影響的動(dòng)態(tài)效益,就無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)優(yōu)化資源配置。岳記韻趨暈釁緯忽迂心題年甩汁裔路士瘋稍厄澆盞阮聰記聰謝充蘋拓信昌之北改唉該士輾士厄均斬阮盞養(yǎng)溪記沖蘋緯忽迂乎北之題該哎皿士瘋亦淋樣檔樣梨養(yǎng)韻屑充釁淤信昌之北構(gòu)又該衰脂士嘛膊櫻孺李鞍細(xì)夸縫湛投揪詢擬剃解佯葬舜再鞋漢蝎梁辨詭貯抑鞍抑掌戊揪彝啪店解瘍眉佯葬疏穢寵雍膊櫻
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