現(xiàn)金流量折現(xiàn)（dcf）

1、現(xiàn)金流量折現(xiàn)（dcf）Value assessment refers to the value judgments made by buyers and sellers on the subject. In the M & A activities, the valuation of the target enterprise is the value basis for deciding whether the transaction will be completed or not. The target enterprise valuation mainly depends on the

2、 size and time expectation of the acquisition enterprise. In essence, it is a subjective judgment, but it can not be evaluated at will. It is based on a certain scientific method. Companies can generally use multiple methods to target enterprise valuations. The discounted cash flow method is a metho

3、d of strong theoretical, it is predicted based on cash flow, full consideration of the target enterprise to create the future cash flow impact on the value, in advocating cash is king in the modern financial environment, the enterprise merger and acquisition is of practical significance in guiding d

4、ecisions. In the discounted cash flow method, the Voston (Weston) model valuation method is the most representative method of valuation. It has been widely used in mergers and acquisitions in European and American countries.With the method of cash flow discount evaluation value of the target enterpr

5、ise, with the general capital budget analysis: after the merger of similar estimated cash flow increased and used to calculate these discounted cash flow discount rate, and then calculate the present value of the increase in cash flow, this is the highest price of the merger parties can pay. If the

6、actual transaction price is higher than the price, the merger will not only bring benefits to the merger, but cause losses.I. net cash flowNCF=X (1-T) -IOf which: NCF - net cash flow;X - net operating income (NOI) or pre tax ex dividend (EBIT);T - income tax rate;I - investment.Two, discount rateIn

7、the discounted cash flow model, the discount rate is the minimum rate of return required by the investors after the investment risk is considered, that is, the capital cost of the investment. But the cost of capital here is the marginal cost of the capital invested by the annexation enterprise, not

8、the cost of the enterprise capital of the acquirers. The capital used by the target enterprise is partly derived from the proprietary capital of the annex and the annexed enterprise, while the other is the annexation of the enterprise and the annexation of the enterprise to the outside borrowing. Th

9、e cost of its own capital can be obtained by the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), while the debt cost can be derived from the effective interest rate after the tax interest is adjusted by the tax. Finally, the capital cost of the investment is the weighted average of the 2, that is, the average c

10、ost of capital (WACC), that is, the average cost of capital:WACC = K=Ks (S/V) +Kb (1-T) (B/V)Of which: B - enterprises borrowing outward;S - enterprises use their own funds;V - total market value of an enterprise;Ks - the rate of return of the companys shareholders on the investment requirements;Kb

11、- interest rates on debt;T - marginal tax rate of enterprises after mergers.Three,Value evaluation of target enterprise - Voston (Weston) modelThe value of a target enterprise can generally be expressed by the present value of future earnings:Of which: FV - the value of the target enterprise at the

12、end of n;Vo - enterprise value;NCFt - net cash flow for the period t;K - marginal cost of capital;N - years, that is, the term of investment.In real life, almost every enterprise with the life cycle of ups and downs and experienced different stages of development: the early growth rate is higher tha

13、n that of the whole enterprise economy growth rate; the term growth rate equal to the economy growth rate; and the enterprise in the late growth rate is obviously lower than the growth rate of the entire economic system. On the basis of zero growth in the period of experience that the establishment

14、of the Voston model, the model is simple, but after the change is to adapt the enterprise to the various forms of growth needs, which is the most commonly used 3 basic models.The 3 basic models are zero growth model, fixed rate growth model, and supernormal growth model.(1) zero growth model:(two) f

15、ixed rate growth model:(three) model of supernormal growth after zero growth:Format: X - net operating income (NOI) or EBIT (EBIT);Gs net operating profit or earnings growth before and after tax;K - weighted cost of capitalBS - after tax investment demand or investment opportunities;N - growth durat

16、ion;T - income tax rate.Four, cash flow discount method for exampleA enterprise is a manufacturing equipment manufacturer based on crane. Because of the low profit rate and the lack of investment opportunities, the company decided to acquire a company to achieve favorable investment opportunities an

17、d profitable growth. Among the many enterprises, A enterprises have chosen B, C two enterprises,The B is a manufacturer of communications equipment production enterprise, in a market development and product research strength, has a very high profit rate and a large number of investment opportunities

18、; C Corporation is a software manufacturer, its profit margin is higher than that of B enterprises. The relevant information is shown in table 1.Table 1 basic informationSupplementary information includes: risk-free rate of return (Risk-free Rate) is 6% (RF), expect market return rate of 11% (RM), t

19、he debt interest rate is 10%, the income tax rate is 50%, the supernormal growth period is 10 years.According to the above information, a simple balance sheet of 3 enterprises can be drawn up (see Table 2)Table 2 balance sheet before acquisition (unit: million)A B CLiabilities 151212Owners equity 50

20、4040Total assets 655252Divided by the internal interest rate (1- income tax rate), then multiplied by the total assets, we can draw the net operating income, then calculate the market price per share and the total market price of assets. The calculation process is shown in table 3.Table 3 market pri

21、ce per shareA B C1. total assets 655252The profit rate of 2. R / (1-T) 0.08 0.24 0.283. operating income of 5.2, 12.48, 14.564. liabilities interest 1.5, 1.2, 1.25. pre tax profits 3.7, 11.28, 13.366. income tax 1.85, 5.64, 6.687. net profit after tax 1.85, 5.64, 6.688. ordinary shares 5119. common

22、stock a surplus of 0.37, 5.64, 6.6810., earnings are 5.4, 11.7, 9.8811. x 26666 market price per share, 3012. x 106666, total assets, market priceTable 4 reflects the impact of post acquisition on earnings per share of A companies. The data in the table show that both the AB merger and the AC merger

23、 lead to a decrease in the EPS per share of A enterprises.Table 4 impact of acquisition on earnings per share of A companiesMerge A with B, merge A with C1. new increase in equity 33332. common equity 553. total common equity 38384. net profit after tax 5.64, 6.685. plus: A enterprise net profit aft

24、er tax 1.85, 1.856. net profit after tax 7.49, 8.537. / 0.197, 0.224 earnings per share.8. minus: A enterprises original earnings per share of 0.37, 0.379. influence degree (0.173) (0.146);10. / 47% ratio, diluted, 39%NOI and GS and B can be determined by natural logarithm regression, and the result

25、s are shown in table 5.Table 5 analysis results of natural logarithm regression methodNOI B GSA acquisition of B 180.9 0.14A acquisition of C 160.9 0.13The following is the use of valuation formula for analysis:(1) calculating the cost of funds after the acquisition;For each scheme, prior to the acq

26、uisition of each enterprise assets total market accounted for two of total market proportion of enterprises as the weights of each enterprise beta risk weighted coefficient, comprehensive risk coefficient calculation He Bei (beta), the beta coefficient can be obtained after the acquisition cost of c

27、apital.(two) seek the weighted average capital cost (WACC) after the acquisition with the cost of debt and the cost of capitalTable 6 balance sheet after acquisitionAB ACLiabilities (B) 2727Owners equity (S) 7676Total assets (V) 103103WACC=K=Ks (S/V) +Kb (1-T) (B/V)According to the valuation formula

28、, the known variables are substituted into each other, and the post acquisition value is obtained.(three) compare the two scenarios with computational results (see Table 7)Table 7 comparison table of the two schemesAB ACPost acquisition value 13798Less: total liabilities of 2727Owners equity 11071Le

29、ss: A enterprise acquisitions worth 1010After the acquisition, the owners equity increased by 10061Reduce the purchase price by 6666Acquisition gains (loss) 34 (5)Comparative results show that the acquisition of B enterprises brings 34 million yuan of revenue, while the merger of A and C enterprises

30、 has 5 million yuan of acquisition losses. Although there are some errors in the calculation process, it can at least prove that A enterprises are more rational and scientific to acquire B enterprises than to acquire C enterprises.The method for the enterprise decision-making provides a more concise

31、 evaluation method, the acquisition of an enterprise to achieve the rational acquisition, investment returns and risk estimation must be reasonable; binding effect were compared by the test of the market strategy and different environmental factors on the acquisition of the different scenarios of en

32、terprise value.Five, the advantages and disadvantages of discounted cash flow methodThe discounted cash flow method is the basic model of capital investment and capital budget, is regarded as the most effective enterprise valuation model in theory, because the economic activities of enterprises on t

33、he performance of cash inflows and outflows. Because of a firm foundation, the results obtained by the discounted cash flow approach are often the basic criterion for testing the results of other models when used in conjunction with other alternatives.The principle of discounted cash flow method is

34、relatively simple, it is the amount of cash balance and investment for the acquisition of the investment amount of all net cash can produce in the future and time (after deducting depreciation, the operation needs to calculate etc.). This calculation shows that the internal rate of return (IRR), that is,