PARADIGMSHIFTSANDIMPACTONINDUSTRYAND范式的轉(zhuǎn)變和對(duì)行業(yè)的影響和.ppt

1、PARADIGM SHIFTS AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY AND TECHNOLOGY,Marcus O. Durham THEWAY Corp / U of Tulsa Robert A. Durham Central & Southwest Srvcs, WTU,PARADIGMSIntroduction,A set of rules that define boundaries of a system Provide description of operation within boundaries In 4 words or lessA WAY OF THINKI

2、NG,HISTORYAdvances in Technology - Tools,Nomad Independence Hunt-Herd-Gather, Basic Shelter Agrarian Economy Farm, Store, Permanent Shelter Industrial Revolution Systems, Controlled by Owner,Information, Desirable Shelter Information Explosion Technology if willing to risk and learn, Choice of Shelt

3、er,HISTORYBusiness Life Cycle,Technology Birth and Growth ManagementStability and Expansion by Acquisition LegalRisk Avoidance and Demise,TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE,Dream or Concept Beginning Plan Focus GrowthCritical Mass MaturityBandwidth Roll-offStale SatiationStagnant DemisePull Plug,Last Century -Cy

4、cle Generation Next Century - Cycle 5 years,Figure 1 - Technology Cycle,Effort to Recapture Dream New Organization to Salvage Management Reduce Costs of People Employ Technology to Some Extent Focus on Core Business,EXTENDING LIFE CYCLE Resurrection - Entity,Concentrate on Investors Flat Organizatio

5、ns Support Services - Computer and Phone Outsource,EXTENDING LIFE CYCLE Resurrection - People,EXTENDING LIFE CYCLE Network,Managers of Outside Technology Coordinate Suppliers, Marketers, Transporters Independent Entities Costs concentrated at Source Technologists at Each Corner Best in Information S

6、ociety,PRODUCT - MARKETER - CLIENT,Figure 2 - Network for Technologists,EXTENDING LIFE CYCLE Wealth - Last 2 Decades,Old Thinking No Opportunity 90% Purchases Did Not Exist New Ways Use Old Things New ThingsUse Unvaluable Major Wealth Technology to Distribution Directing Information Moving Products

7、Supplying Transportation,THEORY OF TECHNOLOGY Zero - Sum,Conservation of Energy Closed System Stable - No Growth Desirable for Control Limited Resources Gain at Expense of Others,Continually Changing Source of Energy Open System Building = Growth Unregulated New Resources / Applications New Wealth /

8、 Value,THEORY OF TECHNOLOGY Find More,THEORY OF TECHNOLOGY Society,Physical ResourcesBasis of Closed System Society Arch Type of Open System Technology The Outside Influence Value to Previous Worthless NOT ZERO SUM,THEORY OF ECONOMICS Continuously Changing,Adam Smith1776Wealth of NationsWhats Good f

9、or _ is Good for Country John Maynard Keynes1930General Theory of Employment Interest & MoneySatisfied Customer Quits, so Progressively Tax Paul Samuelson1950 - 1990EconomicsUtilization of Scarce Resources,THEORY OF ECONOMICS More Changes,John Kenneth Galbraith1958Affluent SocietyNo Difference in Lu

10、xuries & Necessities Paul Zane Pilzer1990Unlimited WealthQuantity Becomes Quality,Consumer Quits Buying, So Tax - US Policy or Consumer Never Satisfied 60 Years Shows Latter US Tax Structure is Penalizing,THEORY OF ECONOMICSReality,Search for Gold Laid Foundation for Investigative Sciences Pharmacis

11、ts, Chemists, Metallurgists, Engineers Successful, but 500 Years Later,THEORY OF ECONOMICSAlchemists,1.Technology Defines Wealth and Determines Desirous Resources. 2.Advance of Technology Determined by Abilityto Process Information. 3. Technology Gap Is the Predictor of Growth,THEORY OF ALCHEMYTechn

12、ology Determinant,THEORY OF ALCHEMYTechnology,W = P * T n W = Wealth (dollars) P = Physical Resources T = Technology n = Power of Growth (Positive Feedback,THEORY OF ALCHEMYEngineer,W = P * e +T t W =Wealth (dollars) P = Physical Resources T = Technology(Positive Feedback) t = Time,TECHNOLOGY GROWTH

13、History,Traditional Slow Agrarian Physical Resource Control Industrial Technology Control Information Control Broken Paradigm Shift Information to Anyone,T = I Transaction Cost = Inefficiency Transaction Cost Lower From Computers Major firms - Inefficient - Reorganize endlessly Small Business - Low

14、Cost Minimal Size Entity Wins,NATURE OF FIRMS”Ron Coase,Figure 4 - Control System Model,Limiters,Proportional To Sum: Acceleration of Information Speed of Application Changes from History,THEORY OF INFORMATIONTechnology,T = d2 /d t2 (Info) + d /d t (Application) + d (history,THEORY OF INFORMATIONFee

15、dback,Negative - Control & Stability Positive - Growth & Expansion Filters Affect Outcome Width - Chops Noise, Time Response Height - Attenuation, Gain Rate of Change - Velocity or summation,TECHNOLOGY GROWTHLimiters,Application Not Implemented Incorrect History Interpretation Regulate To Protect,LI

16、MITS ON TECHNOLOGYCost = Perceived Value,PV = FV - d(MC + BC + DC) * N PVPerceived Value FV Functional Value MCManufacturing Cost BCBusiness Cost DCDistribution Cost NNumber of Units,TECHNOLOGY GAPFeedback Loop,TC = PV + TG If FV then PV then TG TCTechnology Cost FV Quality, education, reliability P

17、V Perceived Value TG Technology Gap,SHIFT OF COSTSWhere,Manufacturing Insignificant Today Distribution is the Major Cost Technology for Distribution Retailer - Minimize Handlers, Computer Links, Control Package Express - New Airline, Central Sorting, Send Back Direct Market - Computer / Satellite, E

18、xpress, JIT Customer Major Wealth in Last 20 Years ? Technological Distribution,PEOPLE PLACEMENT Cope Vs Options,Unskilled LaborGrowing GapMotivation & Moral Responsible Skilled “Blue Collar” New JobNew Enterprise ManagerNo Need ConventionalTransition to Technology Mgr Technologists OutsourceOpportu

19、nity Vs Stable,PEOPLE PLACEMENTCyberspace,Not About Computers Release of Information to More People Technology not Domain of Managers,Internet Connections,PEOPLE PLACEMENTSociety Good,Technology Replace Person More Money to Owner More to Spend on Non-Necessities New Enterprises from New Lifestyle,FU

20、TURE FOR EDUCATIONAnalysis of Technology,Reams of Data Little Knowledge Cant Review & Validate Cant Ascertain Problems Technical Expert vs. Artificial Expert Need Basic Principles Emphasis,2 * 2 = ,FUTURE FOR EDUCATIONRefocus,OldNew Technical Theory Skills Change Fast Deal With Things Deal With Peop

21、le Info Age - Vacuum HavenNeed People Skills Continuing Education Seminar Short Courses Professional Society,FUTURE OF ORGANIZATIONSIndependent Interdependence,Technology Change & Creativity ManufacturingEfficient Joint Ventures MarketingEntrepreneurs, Niche Clientele Distribution Technology Manager

22、 Products / Info Support NetworkEducation and Encouragement Major Companies,FUTURE FOR TECHNOLOGISTSWay to Go,20 Years Ago Concept to market, 5 years TodayLife Cycle of Technology 5 Years Need Less Advanced Skills, More Application Multiple Separate Businesses One Flourishes, Others Incubate Develop

23、 Where You Want With Information System,FUTURE FOR TECHNOLOGISTSNew Criteria,Network Others Must Know Exchange Skills Niche MarketerUnconventional People SkillsMandatory Change Uncomfortable, but Future is Bright,FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGISTSInformation Revolution,Major CorporationDeterioration of Empire Life Time Employment w/ Co.HA Life Time Doing Same ThingHA HA THATS GOOD NEWSOpportunitie,Business Reality: We are not a family - this is business. The Company and the Employees have formed a partnershipwhich should be mutually beneficial. Either party can termina