工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理文獻(xiàn)翻譯.docx

1.1Change is inherent in construction work. For years, industry has had avery poor reputation for coping with the adverse effects of change, withmany projects failing to meet deadlines and cost and quality targets. Thisis not too surprising considering that there are no known perfect engineers,anymore than there are perfect designs or that the forces of nature behavein a perfectly predictableway. Change cannot be eliminated, but by apply-ing the principles of risk management, engineers are able to improve theeffective management of this change.變化是固有的建設(shè)工作。多年來，行業(yè)已經(jīng)有很差的聲譽(yù)，為應(yīng)對(duì)變化的不利影響，許多項(xiàng)目未能按時(shí)完成，成本和質(zhì)量目標(biāo)。這是不是太令人驚訝的考慮，有沒有已知的完美工程師，再比有完美的設(shè)計(jì)，或自然的力量的表現(xiàn)在完全predictableway。改變不能被淘汰，而是通過申請(qǐng)，ING風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的原則，工程師能夠提高這一變化的有效管理。變化存在在建設(shè)工作中。多年來，行業(yè)內(nèi)許多項(xiàng)目因沒有沒有按時(shí)完成或超出預(yù)算或沒有達(dá)到質(zhì)量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，行業(yè)在應(yīng)對(duì)變化所帶來的負(fù)面影響上有很差的聲譽(yù)。變化不能被完全消除，但是通過風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理，工程師能夠更有效地管理變化。Change is normally regarded in terms of its adverse effects on projectcost estimates and programmes. In extreme cases, the risk of these timeand cost overruns can invalidate the economic case for a project, turning a potentially protable investment into a loss-making venture. A riskevent implies that there is a range of outcomes for that event which couldbe both more and less favourable than the most likely outcome, andthat each outcome within the range has a probability of occurrence. Theaccumulation, or combinations of risks can be termed project risk. Thiswill usually be calculated using a simulation model (see Chapter 7). It isimportant to try to capture all the potential risks to the project even ifthey are not strictly events or a calculation of project risk.變化通常被視為其對(duì)項(xiàng)目的不利影響成本估算和方案。在極端情況下，這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)項(xiàng)目成本超支無效的經(jīng)濟(jì)情況下，虧損的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)變成一個(gè)潛在的有利可圖的投資。一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件意味著該事件是有成果的范圍可既比最可能的結(jié)果不太有利，每個(gè)結(jié)果的范圍內(nèi)有一個(gè)發(fā)生的概率。 “可以稱為項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的積累，或風(fēng)險(xiǎn)組合。這通常會(huì)使用仿真模型（見第七章）計(jì)算。這是重要嘗試捕獲所有潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的項(xiàng)目，即使它們不是嚴(yán)格的事件或項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)算。人們常認(rèn)為變化會(huì)給項(xiàng)目成本預(yù)算帶來負(fù)面影響。在極端情況下，這些超時(shí)完成、成本超支的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)使一向原本有利潤(rùn)的項(xiàng)目變成一項(xiàng)帶來?yè)p失的投資。一件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件意味著它有可能引起各種極有可能發(fā)生的后果，且比原先最有可能發(fā)生的后果更有利或不利。這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度能通過某種仿真模型來計(jì)算。抓住項(xiàng)目所有的潛在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，這很重要。In construction projects each of the three primary targets of cost, timeand quality will be likely to be subject to risk and uncertainty. It followsthat a realistic estimate is one which makes appropriate allowances forall those risks and uncertainties which can be anticipated fromexperienceand foresight. Project managers should undertake or propose actionswhich eliminate the risks before they occur, or reduce the effects of risk oruncertainty and make provision for them if they occur when this is possibleand cost effective. It is vital to recognise the root causes of risks, and not toconsider risks as events that occur almost at random. Risks can frequentlybe avoided if their root causes are identied and managed before theadverse consequence the risk event occurs. They should also ensurethat the remaining risks are allocated to the parties in a manner which islikely to optimise project performance.在每一個(gè)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的成本，時(shí)間的三個(gè)主要目標(biāo)和質(zhì)量將有可能受到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和不確定性。它遵循一個(gè)現(xiàn)實(shí)的估計(jì)是一個(gè)適當(dāng)?shù)慕蛸N所有這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和可預(yù)期的fromexperience的不確定性和遠(yuǎn)見。項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理應(yīng)當(dāng)承擔(dān)或建議的行動(dòng)消除風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生之前，或減少風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響，或不確定性themif andmake的提供他們occurwhen這是可能的和成本效益。至關(guān)重要的是要認(rèn)識(shí)到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的根源，而不是幾乎在隨機(jī)發(fā)生的事件考慮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可以經(jīng)常可以避免的，如果確定其根源和前管理發(fā)生的不良后果 - 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件 - 。他們還應(yīng)當(dāng)確保剩余的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分配的方式，這是各方可能優(yōu)化項(xiàng)目性能。在建筑工程中，成本、時(shí)間和質(zhì)量這三大目標(biāo)都處于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和不確定性之下。我們可以通過以前的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和遠(yuǎn)見來預(yù)測(cè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和不確定性，并準(zhǔn)備適當(dāng)?shù)慕蛸N。項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理應(yīng)該在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生前采取措施來使之減少或降低它們的影響。當(dāng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生時(shí)，若在操作和成本上可行，項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理應(yīng)采取修正措施。辨識(shí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源，而不認(rèn)為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件是隨機(jī)發(fā)生的，這一點(diǎn)至關(guān)重要。如果風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件發(fā)生前被辨識(shí)出來且被掌控，很多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)通常都能避免。項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理同樣要確保，剩下的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)由相關(guān)方負(fù)責(zé)，使項(xiàng)目進(jìn)展最優(yōu)化。Toachievetheseaimsitissuggestedthatasystematicapproachisfollowed:toidentifytherisksources,toquantifytheireffects(riskassess-mentandanalysis),todevelopmanagementresponsestoriskandnallytoprovideforresidualriskintheprojectestimates.Thesefourstagescomprisethecoreoftheprocessofriskmanagement.Riskmanagementcanbeoneofthemostcreativetasksofprojectmanagement.為實(shí)現(xiàn)降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、優(yōu)化項(xiàng)目的目標(biāo)，應(yīng)采取系統(tǒng)性的方法辨別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源，量化其后果（即風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析），制定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)管理方案，并為項(xiàng)目中其他風(fēng)險(xiǎn)做準(zhǔn)備。這四個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的核心過程。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理師項(xiàng)目管理中最具有創(chuàng)意的任務(wù)之一。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的優(yōu)點(diǎn)總結(jié)如下：項(xiàng)目事宜從初始階段就被闡明、理解且考慮；任何決定都有足夠的分析來支撐；項(xiàng)目的定義和結(jié)構(gòu)獲連續(xù)性的掌控；對(duì)特定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)由更清晰的理解；能建立起歷史數(shù)據(jù)供將來的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理參考。1.2Risk management is a particular form of decision making within project management, which is itself the topic ofmany textbooks and papers. Risk management is not about predicting the future. It is about understanding your project andmaking a better decision with regard to themanagementof your project, tomorrow. Sometimes that decision may be to abandon the project. If that is the correct outcome which saves various parties from wasting time, money and skilled human resources, then the need for a rational, repeatable, justiable risk methodology and risk interpreta-tion is paramount. Nevertheless, the precise boundaries between decision making and the aspects of other problem-solving methodologies have always been difcult to establish.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是一個(gè)特別的決定，在項(xiàng)目管理，它本身的的主題ofmany教科書和文件的形式。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是不是預(yù)測(cè)未來。據(jù)有關(guān)了解你的項(xiàng)目andmaking更好的決策方面themanagement您的項(xiàng)目，明天。有時(shí)，這一決定可能會(huì)放棄該項(xiàng)目。如果這是正確的結(jié)果，從而節(jié)省了浪費(fèi)時(shí)間，金錢和熟練的人力資源，則需要一個(gè)理性的，可重復(fù)的，合理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的方法和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)釋義，各方TION是至關(guān)重要的。然而，之間的決策和其他解決問題的方法等方面的精確邊界一直難以確定。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是項(xiàng)目管理中做決定的一種特殊形式，也是許多教科書和論文的課題。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理不是預(yù)測(cè)未來，而是理解項(xiàng)目并在將來的項(xiàng)目管理上做出更好的決定。有時(shí)也許會(huì)決定放棄項(xiàng)目，如果這是防止各方浪費(fèi)時(shí)間、金錢和專業(yè)人力資源的正確做法，那么一個(gè)理性的、合理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方法論和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)闡述是很重要的。否則，很難清楚地界定此項(xiàng)決策和其他解決問題的方法。In essence, decisions are made against a predetermined set of objectives, rules and/or priorities based upon knowledge, data and information relevant to the issue although too often this is not the case. Frequently decisions are ill-founded, not based on a logical assessment of project-specic criteria and lead to difculties later. It is not always possible to have conditions of total certainty; indeed in risk management it is most likely that a considerable amount of uncertainty about the construction project exists at this stage.從本質(zhì)上講，對(duì)預(yù)定的目標(biāo)，規(guī)則和/或基于知識(shí)，雖然問題有關(guān)的數(shù)據(jù)和信息的優(yōu)先事項(xiàng)作出決定，往往并非如此。決定經(jīng)常是生病成立，而不是基于邏輯評(píng)估一個(gè)項(xiàng)目的具體標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，并導(dǎo)致困難。這并不總是可能有完全確定的情況下，確實(shí)在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理，它是最有可能的，在這個(gè)階段中存在大量的有關(guān)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的不確定性。實(shí)際上，在事先設(shè)定的目標(biāo)、規(guī)則或根據(jù)先前相關(guān)知識(shí)、數(shù)據(jù)和信息的基礎(chǔ)上，才能做出決策。但通常，決策的立足點(diǎn)不對(duì)不是建立在項(xiàng)目特點(diǎn)定的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)下的邏輯性評(píng)估之上。完全確定的情況很少發(fā)上，在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理中，很可能是建設(shè)項(xiàng)目中存在很多不確定。The terms risk and uncertainty can be used in different ways. The word risk originated from the French word risqu, and began to appear in England, in its anglicised form, around 1830, when it was used in insurance transactions. Risk can be, and has been, dened in many ways and assessed in terms of fatalities and injuries, in terms of probability of reliability, in terms of a sample of a population or in terms of the likely effects on a project. All these methodologies are valid and particular industries or sectors have chosen to adopt particular measures as their standard approach. As this book concentrates on engineering projects, risk is dened in the project context, and broadly follows the guidelines and terminology adopted by the British Standard on Project Management BS 6079, The Association for Project Management Body of Knowledge,The Association for Project Management Project Risk Analysis and Management Guide, the Institution of Civil Engineers and the Faculty of Actuaries Risk Analysis and Management for Projects Guide and the HM Treasury, Central Unit on Procurement Guide on Risk Assessment.可以用不同的方式的條款的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和不確定性。字風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源自其外法語單詞有傷風(fēng)化，并開始出現(xiàn)在英國(guó)，在英國(guó)化的形式，1830年左右，當(dāng)它被用在保險(xiǎn)交易。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可以，一直以來，在很多方面定義和評(píng)估中的死亡和受傷人數(shù)，在概率可靠性方面，在人口樣本的條款，或在一個(gè)項(xiàng)目可能產(chǎn)生的影響方面。所有這些方法是有效的和特定行業(yè)或部門選擇采用particularmeasures作為其標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的做法。因?yàn)檫@本書對(duì)工程項(xiàng)目集中，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是指在項(xiàng)目范圍內(nèi)，并廣泛遵循的指導(dǎo)方針和術(shù)語上ProjectManagement通過由英國(guó)人還不賴標(biāo)準(zhǔn)BS6079，該協(xié)會(huì)的項(xiàng)目管理知識(shí)體系，TheAssociation為ProjectManagement ProjectRiskAnalysis和管理指南，土木工程師學(xué)會(huì)和精算師風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析和管理項(xiàng)目指南的HMTreasury，中央單位采購(gòu)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估指南學(xué)院。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和不確定性，這兩個(gè)術(shù)語可以使用在不同情況下。risk這個(gè)詞起源于法語risqu，1830年左右出現(xiàn)在英語中，當(dāng)時(shí)這個(gè)詞使用在保險(xiǎn)交易中。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)這個(gè)詞被多重定義，它可以度量死傷程度、可靠度。所有這些方法都是有效的，個(gè)別行業(yè)在它們的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)方法里采取了特定的措施。這本書主要講工程項(xiàng)目，所以風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定義基于工程背景上，總體上遵循了英國(guó)工程管理標(biāo)準(zhǔn)（BS6079）的規(guī)則。A number of authors state that uncertainty should be considered as separate fromrisk because the two terms are distinctly different. Uncertainty can be regarded as the chance occurrence of some event where the probability distribution is genuine