國際期貨市場運作10TechnicalAnalysisChartPa.ppt

Technical Analysis: Chart Patterns,Chapter 10,The Wave Theories,R.N. Elliott pointed out that the stock market unfolds(展開) according to a basic rhythm or pattern of five waves up and three waves down to form a complete cycle of eight waves.,The pattern of five waves up followed by three waves down,The Wave Theories,The Bar Chart,A price bar might represent a period as short as five minutes or as long as a month. The most common is the daily bar chart.,Bar Chart,Open. The first price traded that day. High. The highest price traded that day. Low. The lowest price traded that day. Close. The last, or closing price, traded that day. Also called the settle.,Bar Chart,Daily Dow Jones I. A. Futures Price,Daily Dow Jones I. A. Futures Price,Week price bar down,“A” shows “up”, “B” shows “down.”,Candlesticks,Red real body and black real body,Red Hammer and Black Hammer,Red body with an up-shadow line and black body with an up-shadow line,Big red body and big black body candle,Small red body and small black body candle,Proportional relationship between real body and up and down shadow lines,a,b,c,Japanese Candlestick Chartings,Bullish Engulfing Pattern,Three Crows,Japanese Candlestick Chartings,Three White Soldiers,Japanese Candlestick Chartings,Doji,Japanese Candlestick Chartings,Tower Bottom,Japanese Candlestick Chartings,Evening Star,Japanese Candlestick Chartings,Monthly Wheat Futures Price,Support and Resistance Trend Lines,Weekly Chart: U.S. T-Notes,Weekly Chart: Canadian Dollar,Reversal Patterns,In a price top, the number of available buyers declines and sellers begin to dominate the market, causing prices, which had been rising, to begin falling. In a price bottom, conversely, buyers begin to dominate the market, reversing the recent downtrend in prices.,Reversal Patterns,Reversal Patterns,High + Low 2 = 50% target The result is the likely target objective. The 50% level is a good indicator of how far prices may go. It is wise to close out your position once the 50% objective is reached. Dont be greedy!,How to Calculate a 50% Retracement Objective,Is the potential profit of trade worth the risk? The greater the ratio of profit to risk, the better the trade.,How to Calculate (and quantify) Risk vs. Reward,Use the following ratios as a guide: ratio evaluation 2.0 or less use an option 2.0 - 2.9 Poor opportunity 3.0 - 4.9 Good opportunity 5.0 - up Great opportunity,Divide profit by risk amount. The result is the ratio.,Channels and Gaps,Gaps that remain unfilled become future chart objectives.,Gaps,There are 4 t