IEA：2024年第一季度天然氣報(bào)告

GasMarketReport,

Q1-2024

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,

electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocates

policiesthatwillenhancethereliability,

affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits31membercountries,13associationcountriesandbeyond.

Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationof

internationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.

Source:IEA.

InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:

IEAmembercountries:

AustraliaAustria

BelgiumCanada

CzechRepublic

DenmarkEstonia

Finland

France

GermanyGreece

HungaryIrelandItaly

Japan

Korea

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Mexico

NetherlandsNewZealand

NorwayPolandPortugal

SlovakRepublic

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

RepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

TheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEA

IEAassociationcountries:

ArgentinaBrazil

China

Egypt

India

IndonesiaKenya

MoroccoSenegal

Singapore

SouthAfricaThailand

Ukraine

GasMarketReport,Q1-2024

Abstract

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|1

Abstract

Naturalgasmarketsmovedtowardsagradualrebalancingin2023,despitetightersupplyfundamentals.DemandreductionsinEuropeandmaturemarketsinAsiasoftenedtheimpactofthegassupplyshockof2022.Pricescamedownsignificantlyin2023,although

theyremainedwellabovetheirhistoricalaverages,bothinAsiaandEurope.

Naturalgasmarketsareexpectedtoseeareturntostronggrowthin2024,primarilydrivenbytheindustrialandpowersectorsinfast-growingeconomiesinAsiaandgas-richcountriesinAfricaandtheMiddleEast.Anexpectedreturntoaveragewinterweather

conditions,afteranexceptionallymild2023,isexpectedtosupporthigherdemandforspaceheatingintheNorthernHemisphere.

However,thecontinuedexpansionofrenewablesandimprovingnuclearavailabilityarelikelytotemperrequirementsforgas-firedpowergenerationinmaturemarkets.

Highinventorylevelstogetherwithanimprovingsupplyoutlookareprovidinggasmarketswithsomereassurancefor2024.However,geopoliticaltensions,risingshippingconstraints,LNGprojectdelaysandadverseweatherconditionscouldrenewmarkettensionsandfuelpricevolatility.Securityofsupplyfornaturalgasremainsakeyaspectofenergypolicymakingandtherisksrelatedtoouroutlookhighlighttheneedtostrengtheninternationalco-operation,including

inassessingandimplementingflexibilityoptionsalonggasandLNGvaluechains.

ThiseditionofthequarterlyGasMarketReportbytheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)providesathoroughreviewofmarket

developmentsin2023andashort-termoutlookfor2024.Italso

includesaspecialspotlightongreenhousegasemissionsalonggassupplychainsthatexaminesemissionsreductioninitiatives

undertakenbythelargestnaturalgasandLNGproducersand

consumers.AspartoftheIEA’sLow-EmissionsGasesWork

Programme,thereportincludesasectiononpolicyandmarket

developmentsrelatedtobiomethane,low-emissionshydrogenande-methane.

GasMarketReport,Q1-2024

Tableofcontents

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PAGE|2

Tableofcontents

Executivesummary 3

Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2023 7

Gasmarketupdate 22

SpotlightonGHGemissionsalonggasvaluechains 50

Low-emissionsgases 66

Annex 78

GasMarketReport,Q1-2024

Executivesummary

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Executivesummary

GasMarketReport,Q1-2024

Executivesummary

IEACCBY4.0.

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Naturalgasmarketsmovedtorebalancingin2023andareexpectedtoreturntogrowthin2024

Followingthegassupplyshockof2022,naturalgasmarkets

movedtowardsagradualrebalancingin2023duetotimely

policyaction,marketforcesandfavourableweatherconditions.Gaspricesdecreasedsignificantlycomparedwiththeir2022highsbut

remainwellabovetheirhistoricalaveragesinAsiaandEurope.Hubliquidityimprovedacrossallkeymarketsamidhighertrading

activity.Despitethisgradualrebalancing,themarketremainedtightonthesupplyside,andpricescontinuedtodisplayhighvolatility.Naturalgasmarketsareexpectedtoreturntogrowthin2024,althoughtheexpansionofgasusewillbecappedinimportmarketsbythelimitedincreaseinglobalLNGsupply.

Naturalgaspricesdeclinedsteeplyacrossallkeymarketsin2023

AsianspotLNGandEuropeanhubpriceshavemorethanhalvedsince2022butremainmorethandoubletheaveragesbetween

2016-20.GassuppliesremainedtightastheincreaseinglobalLNGproduction(+13bcm)wasnotsufficienttooffsetthecontinueddeclineinRussianpipedgasdeliveriestoEurope(-38bcm).LNGproductiongrowthfellshortofpreviousexpectationsduetoacombinationofprojectdelaysandfeedgassupplyissues.The

UnitedStatesaccountedfor80%ofadditionalLNGsupplyandbecametheworld’slargestLNGexporter.

Thesofteningofmarketconditionsin2023wasprimarily

drivenbythedemandside.Therapidexpansionofrenewablesandimprovingnuclearavailabilityweighedonnaturalgas

demandinEuropeandmaturemarketsinAsia,drivingpriceslower.

Mildwinterweatherconditionstogetherwithgas-saving

measuresalsoreducedgasuseintheresidentialandcommercialsectors.Assuch,globalgasdemandgrewbyanestimated0.5%in2023,whichwasnotenoughtomakeupthelossesof2022whendemanddroppedby1.5%.DemandgrowthwasprimarilysupportedbyChina,NorthAmericaandthegas-richmarketsinAfricaandtheMiddleEast.Chinaregaineditspositionastheworld’slargestLNGimporterwithnaturalgasdemandincreasingby7%.In

contrast,naturalgasconsumptioninEuropefellby7%toitslowestlevelsince1995.

Securityofsupplyconcerns,affordabilityissuesandemissionsreductioneffortsaresettingthedirectionforgas-relatedpolicies

TheglobalenergycrisistriggeredbyRussia’sinvasionofUkraineputsecurityofsupplyfornaturalgasattheforefrontofenergy

policymaking.Policymeasuresandnewregulationsenactedin

2022reinforcedgassupplysecurityinkeyimportmarketsandwerecomplementedbynewinstrumentsin2023.TheEuropeanUnionlauncheditsJointGasPurchasingmechanisminApril2023.Fourtenderingroundshavebeenorganisedin2023andoverall45bcmofgasdemandwasmatchedwithsupplyviatheAggregateEU

GasMarketReport,Q1-2024

Executivesummary

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|5

platform(equatingtoalmost15%ofEUgasdemand).SingaporeannouncedinOctober2023planstocentralisenaturalgas

procurementforthecountry’spowersector.Japan’sMinistryofEconomy,TradeandIndusrylaunchedthecountry’sStrategic

BufferLNGaheadofthe2023/24winterseason.InChina,the

NationalEnergyAdministrationreleasedadraftversionofthe

NaturalGasUtilizationPolicy,settingouttheguidingprinciplesforan“orderlygrowthinnaturalgasdemand”inthecomingyears.

Recognisingtheimportanceofinternationalcooperationto

achievegreenhousegasreductionsingassupplychains,theIEAcarriedoutasurveyontheinitiatives,policiesandregulationsenactedbythelargestproducersandconsumersofbothnatural

gasandLNG.Thesurveyfoundthatkeynaturalgasexportersandimportersreinforcedtheircommitmenttoreduceemissionsalonggassupplychains,althoughfurthereffortsareneededto

harmonisemeasurement,monitoring,reportingandverification

mechanismsandincentivisetheinvestmentsrequiredtoeffectivelyreducenaturalgas-relatedgreenhousegasemissions.

Low-emissionsgasesbenefitfromstrongpolicymomentum

Low-emissionsgasescontinuedtobenefitfromawiderangeofpolicyinitiativesin2023.TheEuropeanUnionlaunchedanewfinancingmechanism,theHydrogenBank,andapolitical

agreementwasreachedonthehydrogenanddecarbonisedgas

marketspackage.TheUnitedStatespublisheditsNationalCleanHydrogenStrategyandRoadmapandannouncedUSD7billionof

federalsupporttolaunchsevenRegionalCleanHydrogenHubs.

JapanpublisheditsBasicHydrogenStrategyinJune2023,withtheaimtoscale-updomestichydrogendemandto3Mt/yrby2030.

IndiapublisheditsNationalGreenHydrogenMissionandapprovedafirstmandatoryblendingofcompressedbiogasintodomesticgassupplystartingin2025.

Naturalgasmarketsareexpectedtoreturntogrowthin2024

Globalgasdemandisforecasttogrowby2.5%in2024.

Demandgrowthisexpectedtobeconcentratedinfast-growingmarketsinAsiaPacificandgas-richcountriesinAfricaandtheMiddleEast.Theincreaseingasdemandwillbesupportedby

industry,aswellastheresidentialandcommercialsectors–assumingareturntoaveragewinterweatherconditionsfollowingmildseasonalweatherin2023.Gas-to-powerdemandisforecasttoincreaseonlymarginally,ashighergasburnintheAsiaPacificregion,NorthAmericaandtheMiddleEastisexpectedtobepartlyoffsetbythecontinuedreductionsinEurope.

DemandgrowthinkeymarketsinAsiaandEuropewillbecappedbythelimitedincreaseinglobalLNGsupply,whichisexpectedtogrowbyamere3.5%.However,thisforecastcomeswithan

unusuallywiderangeofuncertainty.Potentialstart-updelaysatnewliquefactionplants,atensegeopoliticalcontext,worsening

feedgasissuesatspecificlegacyprojectsandrisksrelatedto

shippingallrepresentdownwardriskstothecurrentoutlook,whichcouldfuelpricevolatilitythrough2024.

GasMarketReport,Q1-2024

Executivesummary

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|6

Globalnaturalgastradeisexpectedtoreturntogrowthin2024

Year-on-yearchangeinkeypipednaturalgastradeandglobalLNGsupply,2019-2024

Y-o-ychangeinbcm

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

post-Covid

recovery

LNGflood

Returntogrowth

Gradual

rebalancing

Covid-year

20192020

aRussianpipedgastoEuropeaCentralAsiatoChina

Gassupplyshock

20212022

OtherpipelineimportstoEuropeGlobalLNGsupply

20232024

(forecast)

aRussianpipedgastoChinaOTotaly-o-ychange

IEA.CCBY4.0.

GasMarketReport,Q1-2024

Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2023

IEACCBY4.0.

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Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2023

GasMarketReport,Q1-2024

Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2023

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Naturalgaspricesmoderatedsignificantlyin2023…

Followingtheall-timehighsreachedin2022,naturalgaspricesmoderatedsignificantlyacrossallkeymarketsin2023.The

steepdemanddeclinesrecordedinEuropeandmatureAsian

marketsprovideddownwardpressureongasprices.Correlation

betweenAsianandEuropeanpricescontinuedtobestrongamidanincreasinglyglobalisedgasmarket.

InEurope,TTFmonth-aheadpricesdeclinedbyalmost70%

comparedwith2022toaverageUSD13/MBtuin2023,stilltwoandahalftimeshigherthantheirfive-yearaverageduring2016-2020.Thesteepdemandreductions,togetherwithlowergasstorage

injectionneedsandhealthyLNGinflows,softenednaturalgas

pricesdespitethecontinueddeclineinRussianpipedgasdeliveriestotheEuropeanUnion(downby60%y-o-y).Pricevolatility

remainedhigh,averagingover100%in2023,itshighestlevelonrecordwiththeexceptionof2022.Tightgassupplies,geopoliticaltensionsandunplannedoutagesfuelledpricevolatilitythroughouttheyear.Thesummer–winterspreadonTTFstoodatUSD5/MBtu,morethanfivetimeshigherthanitsten-yearaverage,reflectingtheriskpremiumattachedbymarketparticipantstowintercontracts.

AsianspotLNGpricesfollowedasimilartrajectory.PlattsJKMpricesdeclinedby60%comparedwith2022andaveraged

USD14/MBtu–morethanthedoubletheirfive-yearaverageduring2016-2020.ImprovingLNGsupplyavailabilityandlowercompetition

forLNGfromEuropesoftenedprices.Pricevolatilitymoderated

fromanall-timehighof160%in2022toanaverageof75%,

remainingwellabovethe35%averagedisplayedduring2016-2020.SimilarlytotheEuropeanmarket,heightenedvolatilityreflectedtight

supplyfundamentals,risksrelatedtostrikesatLNGplants,

geopoliticaltensionandcongestiononthePanamaCanalinQ4.

PlattsJKMregaineditspremiumoverTTFinthesecondhalfof

2023.HighEuropeaninventorylevelsandcontinueddemand

reductionsdroveTTFpricesbelowPlattsJKM,withthenortheastAsianmarkerdisplayingapremiumofUSD1.5/MBtuover

Europeanhubpricesinthesecondhalfof2023.ThisincentivisedstrongerLNGflowstowardsAsianmarketsaheadofthe2023/24winterseason.DespitethestrongvolatilitydisplayedbothontheAsianandEuropeanmarkets,thecorrelationbetweenTTFandPlattsJKMremainedstrongandaveragedcloseto0.9.This

reflectstheinterconnectednatureofregionalimportmarketsamidthegrowingshareofdestination-flexibleLNGsupplies.

IntheUnitedStates,HenryHubmonth-aheadpricesfellby60%comparedwith2022toaverageUSD2.7/MBtu–alignedwiththeirfive-yearaverageduring2016-2020.Strongdomesticproductiontogetherwithmilderwintertemperaturesmoderatednaturalgasprices.Pricevolatilityremainedaboveaverage,supportedbythehighershareofnaturalgasinpowergeneration.

GasMarketReport,Q1-2024

Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2023

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PAGE|9

…albeitremainingwellabovehistoricalaveragesinAsiaandEurope

KeyAsianandEuropeannaturalgasprices,2021-2023

USD/MBtu

100

80

60

40

20

Jan-2021

Feb-2021

Mar-2021

Apr-2021

May-2021

Jun-2021

Jul-2021

Aug-2021

Sep-2021

Oct-2021

Nov-2021

Dec-2021

Jan-2022

Feb-2022

Mar-2022

Apr-2022

May-2022

Jun-2022

Jul-2022

Aug-2022

Sep-2022

Oct-2022

Nov-2022

Dec-2022

Jan-2023

Feb-2023

Mar-2023

Apr-2023

May-2023

Jun-2023

Jul-2023

Aug-2023

Sep-2023

Oct-2023

Nov-2023

Dec-2023

0

TTF

PlattsJKMTTFaverage

(2016-20)

PlattsJKMaverage(2016-20)

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Note:TTFandPlattsJKMaveragepricestake2016-20asthereferenceperiod.

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonCMEGroup(2023),

DutchTTFNaturalGasMonthFuturesSettlements;

CMEGroup(2023),

LNGJapan/KoreaMarker(Platts)FuturesSettlements;

EIA(2023),

HenryHubNaturalGasSpotPrice;

ICIS(2023),

ICISLNGEdge;

Powernext(2023),

SpotMarketData.

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|10

Heightenedpricevolatilitylingeredinto2023amidtightsupplyfundamentals

Annualaverageofhistoricalpricevolatilityacrosskeygasmarkets,2013-2023

160%

140%

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

TTFPlattsJKMHenryHub

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonCMEGroup(2023),

DutchTTFNaturalGasMonthFuturesSettlements;

CMEGroup(2023),

LNGJapan/KoreaMarker(Platts)FuturesSettlements;

EIA(2023),

HenryHubNaturalGasSpotPrice;

ICIS(2023),

ICISLNGEdge;

Powernext(2023),

SpotMarketData.

GasMarketReport,Q1-2024

Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2023

Hubliquidityimprovedacrossallkeygasmarketsin2023

IntheUnitedStatesgasvolumestradedonHenryHubfellby5%in2022totheirlowestlevelsince2015,whilethechurnratefellto40,itslowestlevelsinceatleast2012.Thedropingasprices

throughout2023reducedtradingcostsandsupporteda13%

recoveryintradedvolumes,albeitremaining3%belowtheaveragebetween2017and2021.Thechurnrateroseby11%to44,

standing11%belowthe2017-2021five-yearaverage.

Followingasteepdeclineofalmost20%in2022,gastrading

volumesintheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedKingdomrosebycloseto30%in2023,reachingtheirhighestlevelonrecord.ThisrecoverywasalmostentirelyledbytheDutchTTF,whichsawitstradedvolumesrisebymorethan40%comparedto2022.

Consequently,itsshareofthetotalEuropeangastraderosefromcloseto75%in2022tojustover80%in2023.ThechurnrateofthecombinedEUandUKgasmarketsroseby45%y-o-ytoan

estimated17,itshighestlevelonrecord.

InAsia,tradeinICEJKMderivativesfellby40%in2022.Lowertradingcostssupportedapartialrecoveryof15%intheirtradedvolumesin2023.ThechurnrateremainedlowintheJKMarea,althoughitimprovedcomparedto2022,risingto3.5.

Naturalgashubsenablemarketparticipantstotradegasinopen,competitivegasmarkets.Tradingiscarriedouteitheroverthe

counter(OTC)orthroughexchanges.Tradedproductsrangefromshort-termcontractstoproductswithadeliveryhorizonseveral

yearsahead(derivatives).Derivativesallowmarketparticipantstodevelopsophisticatedriskmanagementstrategies.Hubliquidityensuresthatdemandfrommarketparticipantsismatchedbysupplyinatime-andcost-efficientmannerwithoutcausingsignificantpricechanges.Greaterliquidityimprovesallocationefficiency,enhancessupplysecurityandenablespricediscovery.Onemetricusedto

assessliquidityisthechurnrate,whichmeasureshowmanytimesaunitofgasisexchangedbeforebeingdeliveredtoend

consumers.Achurnrateabove10usuallyindicatesaliquidmarket.

Hubliquiditydeclinedacrossallkeygasmarketsin2022.Thesharpincreaseinnaturalgasprices,accompaniedbyhighvolatility,droveupmarginrequirementspostedbycentralcounterparties.

1

Thisinturnincreasedthecostofholdingpositionsandledto

liquiditystrains,especiallyinthecaseofmarketplayerswithmorelimitedfinancialcapabilities.Margincallsmoderatedin2023onlowernaturalgaspricesandsoftervolatilitypatterns,whichledtoarecoveryintradedvolumesandimprovedmarketliquidity.

1Centralcounterparties(CCPs)interposethemselvesbetweentheoriginalcounterpartiestotradedcontractsandeffectivelybearthesettlementriskofgiventransactions.CCPsrequiremarginstocoverthevalueofriskfromtheirparticipants’outstandingtransactions.

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GasMarketReport,Q1-2024

Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2023

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Gastradingvolumesandchurnratesrecoveredin2023

Estimatedtradedvolumesandchurnratesacrosskeynaturalgasmarkets,2019-2023

IEA.CCBY4.0.

*NortheastAsia=China,JapanandKorea.

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonvarioussources,includingCME(2022),

VolumeandOpenInterest;

ICE(2022),

ReportCenter;

LondonEnergyBrokers’Association(2022),

MonthlyVolumeReports.

GasMarketReport,Q1-2024

Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2023

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PAGE|13

NorthAmericaandtheMiddleEastledtheincreaseinLNGcontractsin2023

LNGcontractingcontinuedtoexperiencestrongmomentumin2023.TotalcontractedLNGvolumesreachedaround90bcm,standing10%abovetheirthree-yearaverageduring2020-2022.Post-FIDprojectsaccountedfor70%ofthetotalvolumes

contractedin2023.TheaveragedurationofallLNGcontracts

signedin2023wasaround15years,highlightingthecrucialrolelong-termcontractsplayinspreadinginvestmentriskbetween

sellersandbuyers.Europeanimportersincreasedtheir

contractingactivityfollowingRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,

albeittheirshareoftotalcontractsremainslowwhencomparedwithAsianbuyers.Destinationflexibilityremainsavaluedoption,whilepricingstructuresdisplayamorediversepattern,asmarketplayerspursuemoresophisticatedriskmanagementstrategies.

Fromasupplier’sperspective,thisstrongcontractingactivitywasprimarilysupportedbyNorthAmericaandthe

MiddleEast.Inparticular,theUnitedStatesandQatarhave

beendrivingthistrend,accountingfor34%and26%ofall

contractedvolumesin2023respectively.Consideringonlypost-FIDprojects,thesecountries’sharewas21%and39%

respectively.Fromabuyer’sperspective,thecontracting

landscapecontinuedtobedominatedbyAsia,Europeand

portfolioplayers.Asianbuyersaccountedforabout38%ofthetotalvolumescontractedin2023,andapproximately40%of

contractssignedwithpost-FIDLNGprojects.Europeaccounted

for31%ofthetotalvolumescontractedin2023andfor30%ofthecontractssignedwithpost-FIDprojects–itshighestsharesinceatleast2016.Thismayindicateapreferencetolimit

Europe’sexposuretothespotmarketandsecureagreatershareofLNGsupplyunderlong-termcontractualstructures.

Contractswithdestinationflexibilityaccountedforover40%ofthetotalvolumescontractedin2022and2023–amarked

increasefromanaverageof23%in2020and2021.Destination-fixedcontractsaredominatedbyAsianbuyers,withChinaaloneaccountingforaround40%ofthetotalvolumescontractedin

2023.Incontrast,destination-flexiblevolumesareprimarilycontractedbyEuropeanbuyersandportfolioplayers,withashareof21%and73%in2023respectively.

Pricingmechanismsunderpinninglong-termLNGcontractsarebecomingmorediverseandmorecomplex.Thevolumes

contractedundergas-to-gasindexedagreementshavebeen

increasinginrecentyears.Thistrendcontinuedinto2023,

primarilysupportedbycontractstiedtoUS-basedLNGprojectsandindexedtoHenryHub.Contractsandheadsofagreementssignedin2023alsoincludedagreementsindexedtoTTFandJKMaswellhybridmechanisms,indicatingamovetowards

greaterdiversificationinpricingmechanisms.Traditionaloil-linkedcontractsremainfavouredbyMiddleEasternsuppliers.

GasMarketReport,Q1-2024

Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2023

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PAGE|14

Europe'sshareofLNGcontractingisontherise

Volumeofcontractsconcludedineachyearsplitbyexportingandimportingsource,2018-2023

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Notes:ContractedvolumesusedfortheanalysisareassociatedwithconfirmedexportprojectsthathavetakenFID,except2021,2022and2023,whichincludecontractedvolumes

frompre-FIDexportprojects.2023representsvolumessignedbytheendofDecember2023.Portfoliovolumesarecontractedbyamarketplayerwhomaysourceproductfromoneormultipleregionstofulfilcontractualobligations.

Source:IEAanalysisbasedonICIS(2023),

ICISLNGEdge.

GasMarketReport,Q1-2024

Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2023

IEACCBY4.0.

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Supplysecurityconcernsremainedakeydriverbehindgaspoliciesin2023

TheglobalenergycrisistriggeredbyRussia’sinvasionofUkraineputnaturalgassupplysecurityattheforefrontofenergy

policymaking.Policymeasuresandnewregulationsenactedin

2022reinforcedgassupplysecurityinkeyimportmarketsandwerecomplementedbynewinstrumentsin2023.

TheEuropeanUnionlauncheditsJointGasPurchasing

mechanism,whileJapanintroducedtheStrategyLNGBuffer

systemaheadofthe2023/24winterseason.Singaporeannouncedplanstoestablishcentralisedgasprocurementforthepowersector.Indiaintroducedaunifiedpipelinetariffsystemandiscurrently

consideringestablishingastrategicnaturalgasreserveto

enhancetheresilienceofits–increasinglyimport-reliant–gas

market.Chinacontinuedtoexpanditsnaturalgasstoragecapacityandreleasednewdraftpolicyguidelinesonthefutureofnaturalgasuse,gasinfrastructuredevelopmentandsupplysecurity.

TheEuropeanUnionlauncheditsJointGasPurchasingmechanism

TheEuropeanUnionadoptedaregulationinDecember2022to

enhancesolidaritythroughthebetterco-ordinationofgas

purchases.TheJointGasPurchasingmechanismwaslaunchedinApril2023withtheaimofmakinguseoftheEuropeanUnion’s

collectivemarketpowertonegotiatebetterpriceswithinternationalsuppliers.Themechanismestablishesatwo-stepsystem:

?DemandaggregationviatheAggregateEUplatform(participationisvoluntary,exceptforvolumerequirementsequivalentto15%ofgasstoragefillingneedsoraround13.5bcm).

?Jointpurchasing:followingthematchingofdemandwithsupplyviatheplatform,companiescanvoluntarilyconcludecontracts

withgassuppliers,eitherindividuallyorjointly(throughconsortiums).

Sincethelaunchofthemechanism,fourtenderingroundswereorganisedin2023.Overall,almost60bcmofgasdemandwas

aggregatedfromEuropeancompaniesinthefirstfourroundsandcloseto70bcmofgaswasofferedbyinternationalsuppliers.In

total,45bcmofgasdemandwasmatchedwithsupplyviathe

AggregateEUplatform(equatingtoalmost15%ofEUgasdemand).Commercialcontractsareconcludedoutsidethemechanism,andnoinformationhasbeenpubliclydisclosedontheactualcontractedvolumesorpricelevels(toensureconfidentiality).Attheendof

November2023theEuropeanCommissionproposeda12-monthprolongationofthethreeemergencymeasuresintroducedin2022,includingtheJointGasPurchasingmechanism.Attheendof

December2023theEuropeanCouncilapprovedtheCommission’sproposalsandadoptedtheprolongations.

GasMarketReport,Q1-2024

Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2023

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AggregateEUmatchedover40bcmofgasdemandandsupplyin2023,equatingtocloseto15%ofEUnaturalgasdemand

Supplierbids,aggregateddemandandmatcheddemandviaAggregateEUin2023

bcm

60

40

20

0

Demandmatched

Aggregateddemand

Demand

notmatched

SupplierbidsOffers

notmatched

Round4

Round3

Round2

Round1

EA.CCBY4.0.

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonEuropeanCommission(2023),

JointgaspurchasingtoincreaseenergysecurityforEurope(Factsheet);

EuropeanCommission(2023),

Remarksby

ExecutiveVice-President?ef?ovi?ontheresultsofthethirdjointEUgaspurchasingtender.

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|17

Singaporeissettocentralisegasprocurementforthepowersector

SingaporeannouncedinOctober2023planstocentralisenaturalgasprocurementforthecountry’spowersectorinthewakeoftheglobalenergycrisisandheightenedmarketvolatility.Gasand

electricitysupplysecurityarecloselyinterlinkedinSingapore,withnaturalgasaccountingfor95%ofthecountry’spower

generationmix.

AccordingtotheassessmentofSingapore’sEnergyMarketAuthority(EMA),powergenerationcompanies(gencos)

contributedtothe