麥肯錫-2024年9月經(jīng)濟狀況展望-2024-10-宏觀大勢

Mcsey

&company

Strategy&CorporateFinancePractice

Economicconditions

outlook,September2024

Executivesarelessupbeatoncurrentconditionsthantheywereearlierthisyear,thoughcautiouslyoptimisticaboutthemonthsahead.Politicaltransitionsareanincreasingconcernforcountries’economies.

by

SvenSmit

withJeffreyCondonandKrzysztofKwiatkowski

September2024

ForthefirsttimesinceMarch2020,surveyed

executivesprimarilyseetheglobaleconomyas

stableratherthanimproving.ThelatestMcKinsey

GlobalSurveyoneconomicconditionsrevealsmorecautioussentimentsfromrespondentsonboth

currentglobalconditionsanddomesticeconomiesthanseenintheprevioustwoquarters—thougha

pluralityofrespondentsexpecteachtoimprovein

thenextsixmonths.1Whilegeopoliticalinstability

continuestoloomasthetopperceivedrisktoglobalanddomesticgrowth,inayearwhenalmosthalfof

theworld’spopulationwillvoteinnationalelections,2respondentsnowcitepoliticaltransitionssecond-

mostoftenasathreatbothgloballyandathome.

Lookingatlonger-termriskstogrowth,respondentsinallregionsseegeopoliticalinstabilityasthechiefglobalthreatinthenexttenyears.Otherareasof

greatestconcernvarybyregion,withrespondents

inGreaterChina3pointingtoenergy-related

topicsandthoseinNorthAmericafocusingongovernment-relatedissues.

Atthecompanylevel,respondentsconsideritlessandlesslikelythattheircompanieswillincrease

theirworkforcesize,whileexpectationsforprofitsandcustomerdemandremainrelativelypositive

andstable.

Respondentsreportlessimprovementineconomicconditionsbut

remainprimarilyoptimistic

Respondents’assessmentsoftheglobaleconomyandtheirhomeeconomiesarelessupbeatthan

theywereinMarchandJune,withsmallersharesreportingimprovement(Exhibit1).However,

thesharereportingworseconditionsinthe

globaleconomyhasn’tgrowndramaticallysince

theprevioussurvey—rather,alargershareof

respondentssaytherehasbeennochange.For

thefirsttimesinceearlyMarch2020,respondentsaremorelikelytoreportthatconditionsstayedthesamethanreportthattheyimproved.

Geopoliticalinstabilitycontinuestoloomasthetopperceived

risktoglobalanddomesticgrowth.

1TheonlinesurveywasinthefieldfromAugust28toSeptember6,2024,andgarneredresponsesfrom1,203participantsrepresentingthefullrangeofregions,industries,companysizes,functionalspecialties,andtenures.Toadjustfordifferencesinresponserates,thedataareweightedbythecontributionofeachrespondent’snationtoglobalGDP.

2MarkJohnandSumantaSen,“Howthisyearofelectionsissettoreshapeglobalpolitics,”Reuters,July9,2024.

3IncludesHongKongSARandTaiwanChina.

Economicconditionsoutlook,September20242

Exhibit1

SinceMarch,respondentshavebecomelessupbeatabouttheconditionsintheglobaleconomyandintheirowneconomies.

Currentglobalanddomesticeconomicconditions,comparedwith6monthsago,%ofrespondents1GlobaleconomyEconomiesinrespondents’countries

Better

Same

Worse

45

32

22

Mar2024

43

29

28

June2024

34

36

29

Sept2024

Better

Same

Worse

48

30

22

Mar2024

44

29

27

June2024

38

31

31

Sept2024

Note:Figuresmaynotsumto100%,becauseofrounding.

1Mar4–8,2024,n=957;June3–7,2024,n=927;Aug28–Sept6,2024,n=1,203.

Source:McKinseyGlobalSurveysoneconomicconditions,2024

McKinsey&Company

Whenreportingexpectationsforthenextsix

months,respondentspaintasomewhatcheerier

pictureforboththeglobaleconomyandtheirown

countries’economiescomparedwiththecurrent

state.ExpectationsareconsistentwithMarchand

June’sfindings,withthelargestshare—42percentofrespondents—expectingtheglobaleconomy

toimproveandsmallergroupsexpectingstableor

decliningconditions.Respondents’expectationsfortheircountries’economiesoverthenextsixmonthsarealsolargelyalignedwiththetwoprevious

quarters,with47percentexpectingimprovement—nearlydoublethesharewhosaytheireconomies

willworsen.Ineveryregion,alargershareof

respondentsexpectsconditionstoimprovethantheshareexpectingthemtodecline.Respondentsin

IndiaandGreaterChinaarethemostpositiveaboutconditionsintheireconomiesoverthenextsix

months—andhavebeenallyear—whilerespondentsintherestofAsia–Pacifichavebecomeincreasinglypessimistic.Just37percentofrespondentsthere

expectimprovementintheireconomy,comparedwith62percentwhosaidsoinMarch.

Geopoliticalinstabilityandpoliticaltransitionsareperceivedastop

threatsgloballyandathome

Rarelyinthisquarterlyresearchdowesee

alignmentbetweenthemost-citedriskstoglobal

growthandtodomesticeconomies.Yet,forthe

firsttimein2024,respondentsviewgeopolitical

instabilityorconflictsandtransitionsofpolitical

leadership,respectively,asthechiefconcernsbothgloballyandathomeintheyearahead,withothercitedthreatsalsorelatingtopolitics(Exhibit2).

Economicconditionsoutlook,September20243

Exhibit2

Manyofthemost-citedriskstoglobalanddomesticgrowthrelatetopolitics.

Biggestpotentialriskstoglobalgrowthanddomesticeconomicgrowthinnext12months,%ofrespondents(n=1,203)

Geopoliticalinstabilityand/orconlicts

Geopoliticalinstabilityand/orconlicts

36

Transitionsofpoliticalleadership

33

26

25

25

Inlation

Domesticpoliticalconlicts

24

24

policy

Changesintradeorrelationships

19

Inlation

Riskstoglobalgrowth1Riskstodomesticgrowth2

65

Transitionsofpoliticalleadership

SlowdowninChina’seconomicactivity

Changesintradepolicyorrelationships

19

1Outof15risksthatwereoferedasanswerchoices.2Outof17risksthatwereoferedasanswerchoices.

Source:McKinseyGlobalSurveyoneconomicconditions,Aug28–Sept6,2024

McKinsey&Company

Geopoliticalinstabilityorconflicts,themost-citedglobalrisksinceMarch2022,isthetopconcern

forglobalgrowthamongrespondentsineach

region,whiletransitionsofpoliticalleadershipis

thesecond-mostcitedforthethirdquarterinarow.Forriskstodomesticgrowth,geopoliticsremains

themost-citedrisktorespondents’economiesforthefourthquarter,andpoliticaltransitionsisnow

thesecond-most-citedrisk,upfromthirdinthe

previousquarter,asmanycountriesholdelectionsthisyear.RespondentsinNorthAmericaandAsia–Pacificmostoftenpointtopoliticaltransitionsasathreattodomesticgrowth(Exhibit3).

Viewsdivergeoninflation.Inflationhasdroppedfromthethird-most-citedglobalriskinJuneto

thefifth,withrespondentsmoreoftensharing

concernsaboutaslowdowninChina’seconomy

andchangesintradepolicyandrelationships.Atthesametime,inflationhasrisenfromthefourth-most-citeddomesticrisktothethird.Inflation

istheprimaryconcerncitedbyrespondentsin

developingmarkets,4whereasinJune,itwastheirfourth-most-citedrisk.Conversely,concerns

aboutinflationhavelessenedamongrespondentsinNorthAmerica,where,atthetimethesurvey

wasinthefield,morethanthree-quartersof

respondentsexpectedtoseeinterestrates

decreaseinthemonthsahead.5(TheUSFederalReservecutitskeyratebyhalfapercentagepointonSeptember18,2024.)

4IncludesCentralandSouthAmerica,theMiddleEast,NorthAfrica,SouthAsia,andsub-SaharanAfrica.5“Fed’sBosticwarnsagainstkeepingrestrictivepolicystancefortoolong,”Reuters,September4,2024.

Economicconditionsoutlook,September20244

Exhibit3

Whilegeopoliticalinstabilityisthemost-citedthreattodomesticgrowthoverall,concernsvarybygeography.

Biggestpotentialriskstoeconomicgrowthinrespondents’Graycirclesize=100%

countriesinnext12months,byo代celocation,%ofrespondents1Most-citedriskingivenregion

Geopoliticalinstabilityand/orconlicts

Transitionsofpoliticalleadership

Inlation

Domesticpoliticalconlicts

Changesintradepolicyorrelationships

Overall

36

26

25

24

19

Asia–Paci?c

32

35

31

25

13

Developingmarkets2

25

24

34

31

14

Europe

53

27

16

31

11

GreaterChina3

28

6

26

6

33

India

45

4

28

26

12

NorthAmerica

35

49

22

30

23

1Outof17risksthatwereoferedasanswerchoices.Total,n=1,203;Asia–Paci?c,n=127;developingmarkets,n=218;Europe,n=325;GreaterChina,n=122;India,n=74;NorthAmerica,n=336.

2IncludesCentralandSouthAmerica,MiddleEast,NorthAfrica,SouthAsia,andsub-SaharanAfrica.3IncludesHongKongSARandTaiwanChina.

Source:McKinseyGlobalSurveyoneconomicconditions,Aug28–Sept6,2024

McKinsey&Company

Changesintradepolicy—acommonlycitedrisk

toglobalgrowthinthetwomostrecentsurveys—isnowalsoatopfivedomesticconcernforthe

firsttimesinceDecember2019.ThatincreaseinattentionisdrivenlargelybyresponsesinGreaterChina,wheretradeisnewlytopofmind.

Geopoliticalinstabilityisalsoa

longer-termconcernforrespondents

Respondentsseegeopoliticalinstabilityasa

topthreattotheglobaleconomynotonlyintheshorttermbutalsointhelongerterm.Justovertwo-thirdsofrespondentsseegeopoliticalrisks

asaglobalconcernoverthenexttenyears—the

sameshareseeninearlier2024surveys.Oneof

thenewestfindingsisthatrisinginequalityisof

increasingconcernforthelongerterm;itisnow

oneofthefivemost-citedrisksforthefirsttimein

2024.Thelatestdataalsoshowthattheprimary

long-termthreatsareviewedverydifferentlyacrossregions(Exhibit4).InequalityisofoutsizeconcerninAsia–PacificandIndia,andsoareextremeweatherevents.Ineffectivegovernmentpoliciesanddistrustofinstitutions,meanwhile,areconsideredlarger

risksbyrespondentsinNorthAmericaandEuropethantheyarebypeerselsewhere,andrespondentsinEuropealsocitemigrationofrefugeesandasylumseekersasariskmuchmoreoftenthanothersdo.

Economicconditionsoutlook,September20245

Geopoliticalinstabilityand/orconlicts

Extremeweatherevents

Inefectivegovernmentpolicies

Exhibit4

Ineveryregion,geopoliticalinstabilityisthemostcommonlycitedthreattolong-termgrowth,whileperceptionsofotherrisksvary.

Biggestpotentialriskstoglobaleconomicgrowthinnext10years,byo代celocation,%ofrespondents1

Asia–Paci?c

Overall

Developingmarkets2

73

77

68

48

31

34

24

13

25

34

18

Risinginequality

Technologicaldisruptions

Foodand/orwaterinsecurity

Migrationofrefugeesandasylumseekers

Decliningbirthrates

Energypricevolatility

Distrustofinstitutions

22

24

15

20

26

17

19

10

19

18

26

22

18

8

18

16

15

12

9

5

14

14

Transitiontolow-carbonenergysources

13

11

11

4

5

7

Publichealthcrises

Censorshipand/orsurveillance

Europe

76

31

32

21

13

14

32

11

14

17

15

6

6

GreaterChina3

51

26

16

14

23

18

6

25

32

16

27

13

13

Grayhalfcirclesize=100%Regionaboveoverallaverage

India

NorthAmerica

76

65

42

33

23

37

31

22

30

20

23

19

18

20

13

3

12

9

20

9

11

8

11

12

1

8

1Respondentswhosaid“other”or“don’tknow/notapplicable”arenotshown.Total,n=1,203;Asia–Paci?c,n=127;developingmarkets,n=218;Europe,n=325;GreaterChina,n=122;India,n=74;NorthAmerica,n=336.

2IncludesCentralandSouthAmerica,MiddleEast,NorthAfrica,SouthAsia,andsub-SaharanAfrica.3IncludesHongKongSARandTaiwanChina.

Source:McKinseyGlobalSurveyoneconomicconditions,Aug28–Sept6,2024

McKinsey&Company

Economicconditionsoutlook,September20246

sointhepastthreequarters.Yet,sincelast

September,respondentshavebecomelesslikelytoexpecttheircompaniestoexpandthesizeof

theirworkforce(Exhibit5).Whereasoneyear

ago,respondentsweretwiceaslikelytoexpect

anincreasethanadecreaseinthenumberof

employeesattheircompanies,nowtheyareaboutequallylikelytoexpectagrowingorshrinking

workforce.Lookingbyindustry,respondents

workinginconsumergoodsandretail,energyandmaterials,andhealthcareandpharmaceuticalsaremorelikelytoexpectadecreasethananincreaseinheadcount,whereasinJune,onlyrespondentsinenergyandmaterialsleanedtowardexpecting

adecrease.

Energypricevolatilityand

transitionstolow-

carbonenergysources

areoutsizeconcernsforrespondentsinGreaterChina.

Mutedexpectationsforcompany

performanceandworkforcegrowth

Privatesectorrespondents’expectationsfor

companies’performancehaveheldsteady

sincethepreviousquarter,remainingcautiouslyoptimistic.Abouthalfofrespondentscontinue

toexpectcustomerdemandfortheircompanies’productso