國(guó)九條催化高股息／市值管理／并購(gòu)重組／股權(quán)激勵(lì)等央國(guó)企機(jī)會(huì)

表1：重點(diǎn)建筑公司盈利預(yù)測(cè)表(收盤(pán)價(jià)日期為4月15日)細(xì)分主題證券簡(jiǎn)稱股息率近12個(gè)月收盤(pán)價(jià)（元）EPS（元/股）凈利增速（%）PEPB(LF)市值億元)評(píng)級(jí)2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E(2014)2025E中國(guó)中鐵2.7%7.341.351.551.74714125.44.725%4.20.641665增持銅礦有色中國(guó)中冶2.4%3.470.420.450.48-16878.37.728%7.20.73660增持等上海建工2.1%2.390.280.320.368015138.77.562%6.70.73212增持四川路橋8.4%7.751.391.671.97820185.64.63%3.91.52675增持中國(guó)交建2.3%9.381.461.621.782411106.45.818%5.30.571279增持央企市值中國(guó)鐵建3.2%8.711.922.022.12-2554.54.322%4.10.471096增持國(guó)改中國(guó)建筑4.9%5.231.351.471.6010983.93.520%3.30.542177增持中國(guó)化學(xué)2.5%7.040.961.101.25815147.46.46%5.60.77430增持低空經(jīng)濟(jì)/設(shè)計(jì)總院4.6%9.560.871.011.1310171211.09.420%8.41.5754增持智能駕駛?cè)A設(shè)集團(tuán)3.2%7.991.021.161.2521387.86.94%6.41.1155增持機(jī)器人鴻路鋼構(gòu)1.4%18.661.711.922.151131210.99.712%8.71.45129增持AI數(shù)字化隧道股份5.4%6.820.981.071.1510987.06.420%5.90.79214增持華陽(yáng)國(guó)際2.7%11.030.821.001.1744211813.411.01%9.41.4722增持新能源氫/BIPV等中國(guó)電建中國(guó)能建華電重工江河集團(tuán)安科瑞2.3%5.160.740.820.911211107.06.314%5.70.70889增持1.1%2.210.190.210.241121411.510.31%9.00.91779增持1.8%5.690.320.390.4421191617.714.813%12.81.5966增持0.3%5.770.590.670.753713129.78.610%7.70.9265增持1.1%18.430.991.361.8325383418.613.64%10.13.0340增持出海國(guó)際工程中材國(guó)際北方國(guó)際中鋼國(guó)際中工國(guó)際上海港灣2.4%12.441.101.271.4415151311.39.840%8.61.72329增持0.5%11.840.921.091.3044201812.910.841%9.11.42119增持3.3%6.640.520.600.6818161412.814.516%9.71.2295增持1.6%7.700.290.340.388151426.423.074%20.10.8595增持0.4%16.380.891.181.5440333018.413.826%10.62.3540增持消費(fèi)設(shè)備更新中國(guó)海誠(chéng)1.6%10.480.440.660.8029502023.615.839%13.22.2449增持地方基建安徽建工5.0%4.970.901.041.181315145.54.84%4.20.8685增持新疆交建0.9%11.350.640.770.9118201817.614.82%12.52.2873增持地產(chǎn)裝飾金螳螂3.1%3.230.440.490.54-912107.46.612%6.00.6586增持?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，注：加粗部分公司2023年數(shù)據(jù)為實(shí)際年報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)目錄股權(quán)激勵(lì)、上市公司/大股東利潤(rùn)占比 5重點(diǎn)公司推薦 62024年3月29日《中國(guó)中鐵凈利增7.1%符合預(yù)期，銅等礦產(chǎn)資源有望重估》 62024年3月29日《中國(guó)交建年凈利增超預(yù)期，經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流大幅增加》 92024年4月7日《中國(guó)鐵建分紅比例顯著提升，PB0.47倍建筑央企最低》 102024年2月22日《中國(guó)建筑月新簽增同環(huán)比加速，受益地產(chǎn)政策密集催化》 122024年4月日《中國(guó)中冶凈利下降15.6%受累減值，礦產(chǎn)資源業(yè)務(wù)未來(lái)可期》 152023年10月29日《中國(guó)化學(xué)前三季度凈利增0.1%，海外新簽增》 172024年3月27日《中材國(guó)際凈利增15%符合預(yù)期，經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流顯著改善》 182024年4月1日《北方國(guó)際凈利增44.3%超預(yù)期，蒙古焦煤板塊業(yè)績(jī)高增》 20風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示 22股權(quán)激勵(lì)、上市公司表2：部分央國(guó)企首次股權(quán)激勵(lì)計(jì)劃對(duì)應(yīng)考核目標(biāo)股票代碼股票簡(jiǎn)稱公告日股票代碼股票簡(jiǎn)稱公告日期 業(yè)績(jī)復(fù)合增速目標(biāo) ROE目標(biāo)601390.SH中國(guó)中鐵2022-2024年扣非凈利復(fù)合增速(以2020 2022-2024年扣非加權(quán)ROE不低于2021.11.23年為基數(shù))不低于12% 10.5/11.0/11.5%601800.SH中國(guó)交建2023-2025年歸母凈利復(fù)合增速(以2021 2023-2025年加權(quán)平均ROE不低于2022.12.16年為基數(shù))不低于8.0/8.5/9.0% 7.7/7.9/8.2%601668.SH中國(guó)建筑解鎖的上一年度公司凈利潤(rùn)較授予的上 解鎖的上一年度ROE不低于2020.9.18一年度復(fù)合增長(zhǎng)率不低于7% 12.0/12.2/12.5%601117.SH中國(guó)化學(xué)2023-2025年扣非凈利復(fù)合增速(以2021 2023-2025年扣非加權(quán)ROE不低于2022.8.16年為基數(shù))不低于15% 9.05/9.15/9.25%600970.SH中材國(guó)際2022-2024年歸母凈利潤(rùn)復(fù)合增長(zhǎng)率(以 2022-2024年ROE不低于2021.12.212020年為基數(shù))不低于15.5% 14.9/15.4/15.5%000928.SZ中鋼國(guó)際2023-2025年歸母凈利復(fù)合增速(以2021 2023-2025年加權(quán)ROE不低于2022.12.15年為基數(shù))不低于12.5% 12.0/12.3/12.6%600039.SH四川路橋2022-2024年扣非凈利不低于70/80/90億2021.10.21 -數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，表3：大股東/上市公司利潤(rùn)對(duì)比情況證券簡(jiǎn)稱大股東持股比例大股東上市公司歸母凈利(億元)同比(%)(%)利潤(rùn)對(duì)比情況2021 20222023Q1-3 20212022 2023Q1-3北方國(guó)際中國(guó)北方工業(yè)有限43.11上市公司大股東6.2 6.452.7 48.76.9 -17.038.6 -6.02.0 38.5-7.5 5.5公司大股東/上市公司844.4% 766.2%558.0% 35.1%-382.2% /中國(guó)交建中國(guó)交通建設(shè)集團(tuán)57.64上市公司大股東179.9 191.090.1 84.4162.5 11.082.8 12.16.2 2.6-6.3 12.9有限公司大股東/上市公司50.1% 44.2%51.0% 109.9%-102.9% /四川路橋蜀道投資集團(tuán)有限56.05上市公司大股東67.0 112.155.2 57.177.5 122.640.4 346.267.3 5.157.2 37.8責(zé)任公司大股東/上市公司82.3% 51.0%52.1% 282.3%85.0% /證券簡(jiǎn)稱大股東持股比例大股東上市公司歸母凈利(億元)同比(%)(%)利潤(rùn)對(duì)比情況2021 20222023H1 20212022 2023H1中國(guó)中鋼股份有限上市公司6.5 6.33.43 7.8-2.7 29.39中鋼國(guó)際公司31.46大股東/ // // /大股東/上市公司/ // // /中國(guó)機(jī)械工業(yè)集團(tuán)上市公司2.8 3.32.71 436.918.3 9.14中工國(guó)際有限公司62.86大股東29.6 -27.519.7 -24.8-200.4 60.2大股東/上市公司1048.2% -823.4%726.9% -5.7%-1097.3% 658.6%中國(guó)能源建設(shè)集團(tuán)上市公司65.0 78.126.58 39.320.1 -4.87中國(guó)能建有限公司44.82大股東/ // // /大股東/上市公司/ // // /數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，表4：中國(guó)中鐵/中國(guó)鐵建/中國(guó)中冶/中國(guó)電建2023Q4新簽訂單反轉(zhuǎn)加速公司季度(%)年度(%)2023Q4 Q3 Q2 Q12022Q4 Q3 Q2 Q12022 2021中國(guó)電建38.08.9-14.730.2-9.141.6118.3729.315.9中國(guó)建筑5.422.83.716.49.612.915.912.612.712.2中國(guó)中鐵23.7-31.50.0310.2-16.9134.2-258411.14.7中國(guó)交建14.023.815.56.395.3-28.435.24.921.618.9中國(guó)鐵建7.6-16.7-5.315.811.80.145.31.515.110.4中國(guó)化學(xué)-30.235.437.30.7-3780.7-24.290.110.17.4中國(guó)中冶7.9-10.021.02.124.510.0-2.013.711.518.2中國(guó)能建-3.582.620.62226.548.320.60.120.251中材國(guó)際-51.030.040.0103.032.0-36.016.0-17.00.518.0北方國(guó)際-21.9-99.3141.8-39.214.01063230441496190.0-60.4數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：公司公告，表5：中國(guó)建筑/中國(guó)化學(xué)2024年2月單月訂單增速環(huán)比顯著提升公司累計(jì)(%)單月(%)202420232024202320221-2月1-2月1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月中國(guó)電建343-101518-4245-192132-6-51851231312184129-1425103141-2-52中國(guó)建筑9304134-71053010286562035316129105314-9中國(guó)化學(xué)28-8753250891-47-26147-55-30-209829-10-491197365-63-534中國(guó)中冶0-75-4191027242-19-10-12-327127-121-12301331736數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：公司公告，重點(diǎn)公司推薦2024年3月29日《中國(guó)中鐵凈利增符合預(yù)期，銅等礦產(chǎn)資源有望重估》維持增持。維持預(yù)測(cè)2024-2025年EPS1.55/1.74元增14/12%，預(yù)測(cè)2026年EPS1.90元增10%。維持目標(biāo)價(jià)11.5元，對(duì)應(yīng)2024年7.4倍PE。2023年歸母凈利潤(rùn)增符合預(yù)期，Q4單季增。(1)2023年?duì)I收1.269.51-42.1/.4/1./24.5.091%，地產(chǎn)509億元降5%。歸母335億元增7.1%(Q1-Q4增3.8/11.1/-1.5/14.6%)，其中中鐵資源46.9億元下降7.7%?？鄯菤w母凈利309億元增9.3%。(2)2023年毛利率10.15%(+0.14pct)，費(fèi)用率5.48%(+0.07pct)，歸母凈利率2.66%(-0.06pct)，加權(quán)ROE11.81%(-0.32pct)，資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率74.86%(+1.08pct)。2023年經(jīng)營(yíng)(1)2023384(20246億元)1-4-380/81/-38/721億元(2022年為-494/117/89/723億元)。202399%(2022全年105%)94%(202299%)。經(jīng)營(yíng)+投資現(xiàn)金流合計(jì)-363億元(2022全年億元)156982億34%。202413萬(wàn)億元增2.%.36.%。(1)20232%(202211%)19986%Q1-Q410/0/-31/24%。(2)股權(quán)激20202022-20241.3萬(wàn)億元6.4%(4)16%。表6：中國(guó)中鐵礦產(chǎn)資源項(xiàng)目情況表（截至2023年12月末）項(xiàng)目名稱

品 保有資源/品位種 儲(chǔ)量(萬(wàn)噸

權(quán)益比()

計(jì)劃總投資(億元)

已完成總投資(億元)

報(bào)告期產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量(萬(wàn)噸)

項(xiàng)目進(jìn)展黑龍江伊春鹿鳴鉬礦

鉬 0.09% 62.16

83% 60.17

1.52 正常生銅 / / 0.14 產(chǎn)華剛公司SICOMINES

銅 3.53% 691.51

41.72% 45.86

23.55 正常生銅鈷礦

鈷 0.15% 54.75 0.39 產(chǎn)綠紗公司銅鈷礦

銅 2.57% 45.50

72% 21.38

3.01 正常生鈷 0.06% 1.13 0.05 產(chǎn)MKM公司銅鈷礦

銅 1.87% 3.10

80.2% 11.95

正常生鈷 0.24% 0.32 0.02 產(chǎn)新鑫公司烏蘭鉛鋅礦

鉛 1.15% 14.86鋅 2.91% 37.48

100% 15.4 15.4

0.852.66

正常生產(chǎn)新鑫公司木哈爾鉛鋅

銀 0.07 0.0044鉛 0.63% 4.11礦新鑫公司烏日勒敖包

鋅 2.37% 15.47銀 0.08

100% 未開(kāi)發(fā)及張蓋陶勒蓋金礦祥隆公司查夫銀鉛鋅多金屬礦

金 0.0003 100% 未開(kāi)發(fā)鉛 7.00% 8.97 100% 3.3 停產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：公司公告，表7：中國(guó)中鐵分業(yè)務(wù)營(yíng)業(yè)總收入業(yè)務(wù)類型Q4業(yè)務(wù)類型Q4單季度(億元)Q4單季度(億元)Q4同比變化Q1-Q4(億元)Q1-Q4(億元)Q1-Q4同比變化基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)2495.123152.0426.33%9835.3310875.8510.58%設(shè)計(jì)咨詢58.0548.60-16.28%186.16182.56-1.94%裝備制造77.0073.22-4.91%258.38273.775.95%房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)192.50256.6933.34%534.59509.14-4.76%其他220.39258.9917.51%729.12793.438.82%合計(jì)3043.063789.5524.53%11543.5812634.759.45%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：公司公告，表8：中國(guó)中鐵分業(yè)務(wù)毛利率2022 2023 2023 2022 2023 2023Q4單季度Q4單季度Q4單季度Q4同比變化Q1-Q4Q1-Q4Q1-Q4同比變化基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)10.10%11.04%增加0.94個(gè)百分點(diǎn)8.42%8.86%增加0.44個(gè)百分點(diǎn)設(shè)計(jì)咨詢30.42%31.56%增加1.14個(gè)百分點(diǎn)28.30%28.36%增加0.06個(gè)百分點(diǎn)裝備制造21.69%20.47%減少1.22個(gè)百分點(diǎn)20.56%21.26%增加0.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)24.55%15.98%減少8.58個(gè)百分點(diǎn)17.07%14.51%減少2.56個(gè)百分點(diǎn)其他25.27%18.31%減少6.96個(gè)百分點(diǎn)17.95%16.97%減少0.98個(gè)百分點(diǎn)合計(jì)12.78%12.32%減少0.45個(gè)百分點(diǎn)10.01%10.15%增加0.14個(gè)百分點(diǎn)數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：公司公告，表9：中國(guó)中鐵歷史估值與財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)表指標(biāo)20112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024E凈利潤(rùn)(億)677494104123125161172237252276313335383增速-10%10%27%11%18%2%28%7%38%6%10%13%7%14%EPS(元/股)0.310.350.440.490.540.540.700.750.961.031.121.261.351.55平均PE11.07.06.06.321.613.111.59.35.94.84.64.64.93.8最高PE14.48.26.918.137.918.012.410.86.85.25.55.36.74.2最低PE7.66.45.14.513.610.911.08.75.14.44.23.93.93.6資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率83%84%85%84%80%80%80%76%77%74%74%74%75%ROE9.6%9.8%11.4%11.3%10.9%9.6%11.3%10.8%12.8%11.9%11.6%12.1%11.8%凈利率1.5%1.5%1.7%1.7%2.0%1.9%2.3%2.3%2.8%2.6%2.6%2.7%2.7%經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流-135-4280194306545332120222310131436384經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流/-2.01-0.570.851.882.494.362.060.700.941.230.471.391.15凈利潤(rùn)應(yīng)收賬款963101012311458131714051578105910371079122112221569增速18%5%22%18%-10%7%12%-33%-2%4%13%0%28%應(yīng)收賬款/營(yíng)21%業(yè)收入21%22%24%21%22%23%14%12%11%11%11%12%減值損失號(hào)為損 6.85.96.925.734.738.892.482.0-60.3-80.5-79.7-61.3-81.7失)當(dāng)年股息率 1.90%1.71%2.46%0.84%0.79%0.99%1.35%1.83%2.85%3.42%3.39%3.60%3.70%年度現(xiàn)金分15.3%紅比例15.1%15.0%16.0%16.0%16.1%16.1%17.0%17.5%17.6%17.6%15.8%15.5%訂單億) 570873109297934695701235015569169222164926057272933032431006增速 -22%28.1%27.2%0.5%2.4%29.0%26.1%8.7%27.9%20.4%4.7%11.1%2.2%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：wind，時(shí)間新簽合同新簽合計(jì)累計(jì)增速單季增速新簽合同時(shí)間新簽合同新簽合計(jì)累計(jì)增速單季增速新簽合同境內(nèi)新簽累計(jì)增速單季增速新簽合同境外新簽累計(jì)增速單季增速2023Q4310062.2%23.7%290081.8%25.5%19988.7%-0.1%2023Q318023-9.1%-31.5%16750-10.5%-34.4%127314.4%36.6%2023Q2127385.1%0.0%118945.1%-0.7%8445.7%10.2%2023Q1667410.2%10.2%627410.8%10.8%4001.1%1.1%2022Q43032411.1%-16.9%2848610.5%-18.1%183821.1%2.1%2022Q31983135.2%78.2%1871935.1%87.8%111237.9%-19.0%2022Q21211917.2%-14.0%1132114.0%-17.0%79891.0%66.5%2022Q1605784.0%84.0%566281.7%81.7%396123.6%123.6%2021Q4272934.7%0.9%257764.4%1.2%151711.3%-3.1%2021Q3146648.3%-10.6%138577.3%-15.4%80723.1%113.5%2021Q21033718.8%32.2%991820.1%34.2%41923.1%-6.8%2021Q13292-2.5%-2.5%3115-2.3%-2.3%177-6.0%-6.1%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：公司公告，注：新簽合同額為億元2.2. 2024329:2023年凈利增超預(yù)期，經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流大幅增加》維持增持。業(yè)績(jī)超預(yù)期，上調(diào)2024-2025年EPS至1.62/1.78(原1.43/1.56)元增11/10%，預(yù)測(cè)2026年EPS為1.95元增9%。維持目標(biāo)價(jià)14.6元。2023年歸母凈利增24%超預(yù)期，在高質(zhì)量發(fā)展目標(biāo)指引下經(jīng)營(yíng)效益提升。(1)2023年?duì)I收7587億元增5.1%(Q1-Q4增基建設(shè)計(jì)/疏浚業(yè)務(wù)分別6659/473/534億元增5.2/-6.0/4.9%；歸母凈利23824%(1-4增10/-3/2/12%)217億元增58%(2)2023年毛利率12.59%(+0.88pct6.26%(+0.18pct，歸母凈利率3.14%(+0.47pct)，ROE8.87%(+1.30pct)，資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率72.74%(+0.93pct)。2023年經(jīng)營(yíng)凈現(xiàn)金流大幅增加，長(zhǎng)周期基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資支出逐年減少。2023年經(jīng)營(yíng)凈現(xiàn)金流121億元(上年億元2023年收現(xiàn)比94%(上年95%)，付現(xiàn)比92%(上年96%)(2)經(jīng)營(yíng)+投資現(xiàn)金流合計(jì)-438(上年-458億元)。(3)應(yīng)收賬款億元(+9%)，減值損失86億元(上年101億元)。2023年新簽增14%其中境外增48%，年計(jì)劃新簽增速≥13.5%。(1)2023年新簽1.75萬(wàn)億元增14%(Q1-Q4增/基建設(shè)計(jì)/疏浚業(yè)務(wù)15585/560/1192億元增14/2/12%，區(qū)域上境內(nèi)/境外14335/3197億元增8/48%(2)20248.2%。股權(quán)激勵(lì)考核2023-2025年以2021年為基數(shù)凈利增速≥指標(biāo)2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024E凈利潤(rùn)120121139157167206197201162180191238263增速3%1%14%13%7%23%-4%2%-19%11%6%24%11%指標(biāo)2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024E凈利潤(rùn)120121139157167206197201162180191238263增速3%1%14%13%7%23%-4%2%-19%11%6%24%11%EPS(元/股)0.730.750.850.971.031.271.211.241.001.111.171.461.62平均PE5.14.74.613.39.910.99.17.97.46.27.26.64.8最高PE6.65.614.019.213.312.910.510.28.68.48.98.65.3最低PE4.33.93.49.88.58.88.06.26.85.45.75.04.1資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率78%80%79%77%77%76%75%74%73%72%72%73%/ROE14.7%13.3%13.4%11.9%11.7%13.0%11.2%10.2%7.1%7.6%7.5%8.9%/凈利率4.0%3.7%3.8%3.9%3.9%4.3%4.0%3.6%2.6%2.6%2.7%3.1%/經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流13370443192974279159139-1264121/經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流/1.120.570.322.031.782.080.460.290.85-0.700.020.51/凈利潤(rùn)應(yīng)收賬款523587600638834680835959102497510391164/增速3%12%2%6%31%-18%23%15%7%-5%7%12%/應(yīng)收賬款/營(yíng)18%18%16%16%19%14%17%17%16%14%14%15%/業(yè)收入減值損失("-"13.518.713.043.144.556.927.9-44.4-56.5-71.4-99.8-86.0/號(hào)為損失)當(dāng)年股息率4.1%5.4%1.6%1.6%1.4%1.7%1.9%2.4%3.0%2.5%2.7%3.6%/年度現(xiàn)金分25.0%25.0%20.0%19.6%18.8%19.0%19.0%18.7%18.0%18.3%18.4%//紅比例訂單//60846503730890008909962710668126791542317532/增速///6.9%12.4%23.2%-1.0%8.1%10.8%18.9%21.6%13.7%/數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，注：凈利潤(rùn)、經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流、應(yīng)收賬款、減值損失、訂單的單位均為“億元”時(shí)間新簽合同新簽合計(jì)累計(jì)增速單季增速新簽合同境內(nèi)新簽累計(jì)增速單季增速時(shí)間新簽合同新簽合計(jì)累計(jì)增速單季增速新簽合同境內(nèi)新簽累計(jì)增速單季增速新簽合同境外新簽累計(jì)增速單季增速2023Q41753213.7%14.0%143358.1%7.9%319747.5%55.3%2023Q31171713.5%23.8%95908.5%7.5%212743.8%120.9%2023Q2886710.6%15.5%74558.6%16.9%141222.2%7.2%2023Q145786.3%6.3%37441.4%1.5%83435.3%35.4%2022Q41542321.6%95.3%1325526.0%173.5%21680.4%-23.4%2022Q3103222.5%-28.4%88430.4%-69.1%147917.3%-5.5%2022Q2801917.0%35.2%686415.7%31.6%115525.8%61.0%2022Q143074.9%4.9%36904.8%4.7%6165.7%5.6%2021Q41267918.9%-20.8%1051922.1%60.4%21605.4%23.9%2021Q31006736.6%57.6%880745.6%240.4%1261-4.8%113.0%2021Q2685128.5%-10.2%593442.4%-0.1%918-21.1%-47.9%2021Q1410680.5%80.5%3523100.9%100.9%58311.9%11.9%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：公司公告，注：新簽合同額為億元2024年4月7日《中國(guó)鐵建分紅比例顯著提升，PB0.47倍建筑央企最低》維持增持。受PPP等投資類項(xiàng)目招標(biāo)總量下降影響，下調(diào)預(yù)測(cè)2024-2025年EPS2.02/2.12(原2.27/2.44)元增5%/5%，預(yù)測(cè)2026年EPS2.23元增5%。13元，對(duì)應(yīng)2024年6。2023年歸母凈利下降2.2%低于預(yù)期，Q4單季下降15.6%。(1)2023年?duì)I收1.14萬(wàn)億元增3.8%(Q1-Q4增3.4/-3.1/2.9/11.3%)，分業(yè)務(wù)看工程9873億增2.3%，地產(chǎn)833億增33.8%，物流及其他959億增0.4%。歸母凈利261億增-2.2%(Q1-Q4增5.1/-1.6/9.3/-15.6%)，扣非歸母凈利246億增1.9。5.47%(+0.26pct)，歸母凈利率2.29%(-0.14c)9.80%(-.25pc)7.92%(+.25ct)2023(1)2023年經(jīng)營(yíng)凈現(xiàn)金流204億元(22年為561億元)，Q1-Q4為-392/199/-238/636億(22年為-411/215/184/573億元。年收現(xiàn)比101%(22年為105，付現(xiàn)比101%(22年為101%)。(2)經(jīng)營(yíng)+投資現(xiàn)金流合計(jì)-355億元(22年為5億元)。(3)應(yīng)收賬款1558億元增10.3%，減值損失合計(jì)99億元(22年為79億元)。2023年新簽訂單增2%，擬分紅比例大幅提升。(1)2023年新簽3.3萬(wàn)億增2%(22年同期增2528億增-17%占8%Q1-Q4新簽訂單增16/-5/-17/8%擬分紅47.520.18%(2022年報(bào)為15.91%)。(3)中國(guó)鐵建2024PE4.3倍歷史分位21%，PB0.47倍歷史分位5%。表13：中國(guó)鐵建歷史估值與財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)表指標(biāo)20112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024E凈利潤(rùn)(億)7986103113126140161179202224247266261275增速85%10%20%10%8%11%15%12%13%11%10%8%-2%5%EPS(元/股)0.580.640.760.840.931.031.181.321.491.651.821.961.922.02平均PE7.75.65.35.314.68.58.96.86.04.93.93.84.63.9最高PE10.57.26.614.822.411.510.17.97.25.84.74.46.44.3最低PE5.34.54.23.710.57.28.15.35.44.43.73.53.93.6資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率84%85%85%83%81%80%78%77%76%75%74%75%75%ROE13.0%12.5%13.6%13.2%12.4%11.6%12.2%12.0%12.0%11.5%11.1%11.1%9.8%凈利率1.7%1.8%1.8%1.9%2.1%2.2%2.4%2.5%2.4%2.5%2.4%2.4%2.3%經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流-12655-936650437125454400401-73561204經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流/-1.600.64-0.900.583.982.651.580.301.981.79-0.302.110.78凈利潤(rùn)應(yīng)收賬款629717878115412801334146599411211257155714121558增速12%14%22%31%11%4%10%-32%13%12%24%-9%10%應(yīng)收賬款/營(yíng)14%業(yè)收入15%15%19%21%21%22%14%14%14%15%13%14%減值損失號(hào)為損 6.23.314.315.835.66.044.744.7-50.1-37.3-98.7-79.4-99.4失)當(dāng)年股息率 7.4%4.8%6.0%1.8%2.1%2.3%2.5%2.6%2.8%3.5%3.6%3.6%4.6%年度現(xiàn)金分15.7%15.7%15.5%16.3%16.1%15.5%15.2%15.9%14.1%13.9%13.5%14.3%18%/紅比例訂單億) 681278938535827794881219115083158452006925543281973245032939增速 -8.8%15.9%8.1%-3.0%14.6%28.5%23.7%5.0%26.7%27.3%10.4%15.1%1.5%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：wind，表14：中國(guó)鐵建2021-2023Q4新簽訂單一覽時(shí)間新簽合同新簽合計(jì)累計(jì)增速單季增速新簽合同境內(nèi)新簽累計(jì)增速單季增速新簽合同境外新簽累計(jì)增速單季增速2023Q4329391.5%7.6%304103.5%10.2%2528-17.4%-13.0%2023Q317862-3.1%-16.7%16691-1.4%-16.4%1171-22.0%-19.5%2023Q2135912.1%-5.3%127644.3%-2.9%827-23.0%-30.6%2023Q1539615.8%15.8%509317.3%17.3%304-4.8%-4.8%2022Q43245015.1%11.8%2939014.7%12.3%306119%8.2%2022Q31843617.7%0.1%1693517%-2%150233%28%2022Q21331226.2%45.3%1223925.6%43.0%107334.4%74.4%2022Q146591.5%1.5%43402.8%2.8%319-12.8%-12.8%2021Q42819710.4%7.7%2562410.4%6.5%257310.5%17.9%2021Q31566312.6%-0.6%1453113.5%-0.5%11322.4%-2.3%2021Q21054620.4%11.2%974721.9%9.2%7984.5%46.1%2021Q1458934.9%34.9%422343.9%43.9%366-21.8%-21.8%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：公司公告，注：新簽合同額為“億元”2024222月新簽增同環(huán)比加速，受益地產(chǎn)政策密集催化》2024年1月新簽增13%環(huán)比提升8pct，地產(chǎn)新開(kāi)工增速環(huán)比改善。(1)2023-2025EPS1.34/1.46/1.5910/9/8%8.1620245.6倍(2)1377813%8pct，3626億元(+14%)280514%(占建筑80817%(22%)(3)1月境內(nèi)新358838147%(4)1151/1579/1290m27/7%環(huán)比變動(dòng)9/-10pct。2023年全年新簽增。(1)中國(guó)20234.32較上年增速基本持平，分行業(yè)3.87(+1%).69%(69%)，1.1715%(30%)。(2)2023年境內(nèi)新簽3.7015%(3)2023年地產(chǎn)合約銷售額4514億元增12%/竣工面積分別為37725/26015萬(wàn)m2增1.5/2.3%。2023(1)22029214個(gè)城市已建立房地產(chǎn)融資協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制，提出可給予融資支持的房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目“白名單”共涉及5349(2)2205年期3.95%(4.2%)，1年期LPR報(bào)3.45%(3)2月21日住建部召開(kāi)開(kāi)年工作動(dòng)員會(huì)，要求扎實(shí)做好老舊小區(qū)改造、城中村改造、保障房建設(shè)、打造“四好”(4)年全年中國(guó)建筑旗下中海地產(chǎn)202262名，權(quán)益拿地金額維持第2名。20243.7倍萬(wàn)保招金平均6.3倍。(1)(2)/穆迪/(3)129日國(guó)資20231020日公告擬6個(gè)月內(nèi)增持5-10億元，截至1月20日已增持5億元。(4)2024PE3.7倍(萬(wàn)保招金平均PE6.3倍)、PB0.55倍低于萬(wàn)保招金平均PB0.57倍，股息率4.73%。表15：中國(guó)建筑歷史估值與財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)表指標(biāo) 20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023E2024E凈利潤(rùn) 92.4135.4157.4204.0225.7260.6298.7329.4382.4418.8449.4514.1509.5561.8613.7增速 52%47%15%30%11%15%15%10%16%10%7%14%-1%10%9%EPS(元/股) 0.220.320.380.490.540.620.710.790.911.001.071.231.221.341.46平均PE 8.15.24.13.53.26.24.86.85.24.84.23.64.14.13.3最高PE 9.96.05.04.16.79.28.17.86.75.44.73.94.75.13.7最低PE 7.34.33.63.22.64.73.96.14.64.23.93.33.73.53.2指標(biāo) 201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202222Q1-323Q1-3資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率 74%77%79%79%79%78%79%78%77%75%74%73%74%74%75%ROE 12.1%16.3%16.5%18.6%17.7%16.0%15.9%15.8%16.0%15.6%15.5%15.9%13.9%12.1%10.8%凈利率 2.5%2.8%2.8%3.0%2.8%3.0%3.1%3.1%3.2%2.9%2.8%2.7%2.5%2.8%2.6%經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流 -16-7724262495461070-435103-34220314438-525-164經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流/-0.18-0.570.150.131.102.103.58-1.320.27-0.820.450.280.08-1.21-0.37凈利潤(rùn)應(yīng)收賬款 48166081283611841156138613771676154016041807210422282495增速 22%37%23%3%42%-2%20%-1%22%-8%4%13%16%17%12%應(yīng)收賬款/營(yíng)13%14%14%12%15%13%14%13%14%11%10%10%10%15%15%業(yè)收入減值損失("-"13.08.326.116.745.237.653.770.5105-35.4-36.7-126-136-77.0-61.2號(hào)為損失)當(dāng)年股息率 7.4%8.7%6.5%8.0%3.5%4.0%2.9%2.8%4.4%4.5%5.1%5.1%4.7%//年度現(xiàn)金分20.1%紅比例17.7%20.0%21.0%22.9%23.0%21.6%19.6%18.4%18.5%20.0%20.4%20.8%//訂單 741185149357127251411715129186122221623233286403199335295390312726731027增速 78.4%14.6%9.9%36.0%10.9%7.2%23.0%19.4%4.6%23.3%11.7%10.3%10.6%11.2%13.8%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，注：凈利潤(rùn)、經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流、應(yīng)收賬款、減值損失、訂單的單位均為“億元”時(shí)間新簽累計(jì)新簽合計(jì)累計(jì)增速單月增速新簽累計(jì)境內(nèi)新簽累計(jì)增速時(shí)間新簽累計(jì)新簽合計(jì)累計(jì)增速單月增速新簽累計(jì)境內(nèi)新簽累計(jì)增速單月增速新簽累計(jì)境外新簽累計(jì)增速單月增速2024-01377812.5%12.5%358813.7%13.7%38147.0%147.0%2023-124324110.8%4.1%3697310.4%-0.9%175515.4%74.3%2023-113828611.7%3.6%3315111.9%3.9%1110-3.5%30.7%2023-103423112.8%3.7%2959912.9%13.2%927-8.2%-66.8%2023-093102713.8%27.2%2685012.9%28.6%84211.7%16.9%2023-082679211.9%4.7%2320510.7%9.2%66210.3%82.6%2023-072446812.7%30.9%2115810.9%30.3%6207.5%0%2023-062253811.3%3.3%195279.5%4.6%5997.7%33.1%2023-051616314.8%7.2%1385511.7%8.3%398-1.7%123.1%2023-041321016.7%0.6%1132612.5%-6.2%340-10.4%-17.6%2023-031084320.9%10.4%955716.7%2.6%162-0.6%84.7%2023-02621130.2%60.0%562329.1%53.2%53-49.3%58.3%2023-01335812.4%12.4%315615.0%15.0%15-81.3%-81.3%2022-123903110.6%-9.3%3349513.3%-8.7%15200.2%-14.7%2022-113427114.1%13.6%2963717.0%10.9%11506.2%180.0%2022-103035614.1%48.8%2621717.9%48.7%1010-2.2%108.1%2022-092726711.2%11.0%2378915.4%11.8%754-17.1%-19.4%2022-082393811.2%27.5%2095415.9%29.5%600-16.6%9.5%2022-07217199.7%-3.3%1908014.7%3.3%577-17.3%-54.3%2022-062024510.8%15.1%1782815.6%20.5%556-14.7%-51.6%2022-05140739.1%4.1%1240713.6%3.6%40519.1%-31.6%2022-041131810.3%21.7%1007216.3%24.0%37925.5%575.0%2022-0389667.7%15.7%818714.6%26.3%163-39.6%-70.8%2022-0247711.5%-13.5%43545.9%-10.0%10452.9%0.0%2022-01298813.1%13.1%274418.2%18.2%8081.8%81.8%2021-123529510.3%36.0%2955714.3%51.3%1517-17.8%-8.4%2021-11300496.8%1.8%253309.8%6.9%1083-21.0%78.6%2021-10266047.5%-15.8%2224510.2%-11.1%1033-23.1%-31.3%2021-092452810.1%1.9%2061212.4%4.8%910-21.8%40.4%2021-082153011.3%-7.1%1807613.5%-5.0%719-30.1%-8.7%2021-071979013.3%-35.7%1662915.4%-42.1%698-30.6%100.0%2021-061826521.0%24.6%1541725.2%32.3%652-33.6%-0.6%2021-051290519.5%5.8%1091722.5%11.7%340-49.1%-77.7%2021-041025923.6%-6.4%866425.7%-8.1%302-39.4%-74.4%2021-03832733.6%22.8%714436.4%15.3%270-27.6%405.0%2021-02470243.4%128.5%411057.7%180.7%68-79.6%-82.5%2021-01264111.1%11.1%232217.9%17.9%44-77.6%-77.6%2020-123199311.7%2.7%2586112.1%-2.3%18454.8%0.4%2020-112813713.1%48.6%2306714.2%61.4%13716.4%-88.1%2020-10247539.5%11.1%201829.6%6.9%134327.5%203.4%2020-09222869.3%27.1%183469.9%20.6%116417.1%491.3%2020-08193437.0%26.0%159278.4%22.2%10285.9%-34.3%2020-07174715.3%6.4%144047.1%19.4%10057.4%-78.9%2020-06151015.2%9.6%123125.3%17.1%98218.7%-34.0%2020-05107983.5%12.9%89101.4%9.3%66890.3%107.3%2020-0482970.9%24.6%6892-0.7%26.4%49885.1%257.1%2020-036232-5.0%-5.7%5239-7.0%17.3%37359.4%-78.8%2020-023280-4.4%-40.1%2607-23.0%-56.9%333640.0%407.4%2020-01237823.4%23.4%19703.2%3.2%196988.9%988.9%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：公司公告，注：新簽合同額為億元2024年4月日《中國(guó)中冶凈利下降受累減值，礦產(chǎn)資源業(yè)務(wù)未來(lái)可期》4.1%，2024-2025EPS0.45/0.48(0.65/0.73)8%/7%，2026EPS0.516%5倍PE。2023年凈利下降15.6%低于預(yù)期，其中2023Q4下降86.3%。(1)202363397.0%(Q1-Q422.4/11.0/23.2/-14.9%)，其中工程承包58559%6823%3200.2%，綜合地產(chǎn)165億降27%86.7億降15.6%(Q1-Q4增25.8/20.6/15.0/-86.3%)。2023年經(jīng)營(yíng)凈現(xiàn)金流降(1)2023年經(jīng)營(yíng)凈58.9(22181.5億)，Q1-Q4-215.6/70.4/-79.6/283.7億(22年為-145.4/147.1/-17.4/197.2)。202377%(2288%)，付75%(2284%)。(2)+投資現(xiàn)金流合計(jì)-8.3(22115.9)(3)1303%895億(2496億)。2023(1)2023142486%(2212%)44%創(chuàng)歷史新高。(2)3360430721841.7萬(wàn)噸；巴基斯坦3369783841295噸。12.14億元。(3)巴基斯坦錫亞迪克銅礦探獲銅儲(chǔ)378表17：中國(guó)中冶礦產(chǎn)資源項(xiàng)目情況表（截至2023年12月末）項(xiàng)目名稱品種(萬(wàn)噸項(xiàng)目名稱品種(萬(wàn)噸) (萬(wàn)噸) (萬(wàn)噸) (億元) (億元)鎳1263.363.41巴布亞新幾內(nèi)亞瑞木鎳鈷礦鈷140.310.3138.7510.27巴基斯坦山達(dá)克銅金礦銅1841.701.7812.220.71鉛330.780.87巴基斯坦杜達(dá)鉛鋅礦鋅694.134.126.031.14巴基斯坦錫亞迪克銅礦銅378////阿富汗艾娜克銅礦銅1108////

報(bào)告期產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量

報(bào)告期產(chǎn)品銷量

實(shí)現(xiàn)營(yíng)收

歸屬中方凈利潤(rùn)數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：公司2023年報(bào)，表18：中國(guó)中冶歷史估值與財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)表指標(biāo) 2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024E凈利潤(rùn) -703040485461646679841038794增速 -264%-143%33%21%12%13%5%4%19%7%23%-16%8%EPS(元/股) -0.360.160.210.250.260.290.310.320.380.400.500.420.45平均PE -5.910.99.225.413.915.010.48.56.58.46.88.66.9最高PE -4.812.822.540.319.816.213.910.57.213.48.410.77.4最低PE -6.99.06.913.811.913.78.97.45.96.35.97.06.5資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率 84%83%82%79%78%77%77%75%72%72%72%75%ROE -16%7.0%8.6%9.5%9.3%8.4%8.3%8.0%8.9%9.1%10.5%7.2%凈利率 -3.1%1.5%1.8%2.2%2.4%2.5%2.2%1.9%2.0%1.7%1.7%1.4%經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流 4420015015418618414017628017618259經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流/-0.636.723.783.203.453.042.212.663.572.111.770.68凈利潤(rùn)應(yīng)收賬款 4695265586376957356706606948399341300增速 8%12%6%14%9%6%-9%-1%5%21%11%39%應(yīng)收賬款/營(yíng)21%26%26%29%32%30%23%19%17%17%16%15%業(yè)收入減值損失158233346403938-34-37-53-50-89號(hào)為損失)當(dāng)年股息率 3.7%3.5%1.0%0.9%1.3%1.4%2.3%2.6%2.8%2.0%2.6%2.4%年度現(xiàn)金分0.0%39.1%24.1%21.9%23.1%23.2%22.8%22.6%19.8%19.3%16.7%17.2%紅比例新簽訂單 2655255332984016502460286657787810197120481345614248增速 -7%-4%29%22%25%20%10%18%29%18%12%6%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，注：凈利潤(rùn)、經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流、應(yīng)收賬款、減值損失、新簽訂單的單位均為“億元人民幣”時(shí)間新簽累計(jì)新簽合計(jì)累計(jì)增速單月增速新簽累計(jì)境內(nèi)新簽累計(jì)增速時(shí)間新簽累計(jì)新簽合計(jì)累計(jì)增速單月增速新簽累計(jì)境內(nèi)新簽累計(jì)增速單月增速新簽累計(jì)境外新簽累計(jì)增速單月增速2024-0219540.4%5.5%19050.4%3.1%49.13.2%154.3%2024-011014-3.8%-3.8%1000-2.0%-2.0%13.9-58.8%-58.8%2023-12142485.9%27.3%136144.6%22.2%63443.7%91.9%2023-11119192.5%-2.7%115432.0%-4.8%37622.6%383.7%2023-10108183.1%-12.5%104712.7%-10.0%34715.4%-64.4%2023-0998195.0%-9.8%94914.2%-7.1%32832.6%-77.2%2023-0888886.8%-18.8%85695.6%31953.5%2023-07801610.6%-32.3%2023-06721918.9%69.2%2023-0553988.1%26.6%2023-0442133.8%10.3%2023-0332582.1%18.8%2023-021946-6.7%-9.5%1898482023-011054-4.3%-4.3%1021342022-121345611.7%36.5%130154412022-11116268.6%6.6%113193072022-10104948.8%30.6%101943012022-0993536.6%13.1%91052472022-0883205.9%30.3%81122082022-0772463.0%33.4%2022-0660697.0%-26.6%2022-0549936.6%-12.5%2022-04405712.2%6.8%2022-03319113.7%12.1%2022-02208614.6%25.5%2022-0111026.4%6.4%2021-121204818.1%6.8%2021-111070719.7%16.8%2021-10964520.1%-14.6%2021-09877125.1%-9.2%2021-08785730.9%-4.9%2021-07703336.9%81.8%2021-06615132.2%3.2%2021-05468545.0%18.3%2021-04361655.4%39.4%2021-03280660.7%15.7%2021-021820103.5%76.9%2021-011036129.6%129.6%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：公司公告，注：新簽合同額為億元人民幣2023年10月29前三季度凈利增外新簽增305%》2023-25年EPS0.96/1.10/1.25(1.08/1.26/1.46)。前三季度凈利增0.1%不及預(yù)期，Q3單季度收入利潤(rùn)均同比下降。(1)13109.2%Q1-Q320.7/22.4/-11.4%，Q3單季度營(yíng)收下降預(yù)計(jì)受國(guó)內(nèi)化工行業(yè)飽和度影響，且公司加強(qiáng)項(xiàng)目選擇，摒棄低毛利率項(xiàng)目。(2)37.2Q1-Q3增13.7/9.8/-27.5%，單季度歸母凈利潤(rùn)下降預(yù)計(jì)因海外經(jīng)營(yíng)規(guī)模擴(kuò)大造成單2.1億，且匯兌損失等造成財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用同比增加2.8億所致。(1)前三季度8.22%(+.47ct)4.690.62ct)2.8%(-.26ct)，ROE6.86%(-0.63pct)，資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率70.99%(+0.82pct)。(2)前三季度經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流-33.7億(22年同期-63.9億)，因公司加強(qiáng)現(xiàn)金流指標(biāo)管控。單季度Q1-Q3為-60.2/62.5/-35.9億(22年同期-68.8/24/-19.1億)。前三季度收現(xiàn)比84.1%(22年同期89.2%(22年同期94.2%)280億增0.1%。前三季度新簽訂單增(1)前三季度新簽2839億增21%(22年同期增37%)，其中境內(nèi)1988億降占70%，境外850億增305%占30%。單季度Q1-Q3新簽訂單增1/37/35%。(2)股權(quán)激勵(lì)考核2023-25不低于9.05/9.15/9.25%，扣非凈利復(fù)合增速(以2021年為基數(shù))不低于15%。(3)隨著海外訂單落地，公司后續(xù)業(yè)績(jī)有望持續(xù)發(fā)力。指標(biāo)201020112012指標(biāo)20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023E2024E凈利潤(rùn)(億)16.623.830.833.631.728.417.715.619.330.636.646.354.258.567.1增速69%41%30%9%-6%-10%-38%-12%24%58%20%27%17%8%15%EPS(元/股)0.270.390.500.550.520.470.290.250.320.500.600.760.890.961.10平均PE14.315.410.413.110.115.717.124.418.710.79.210.910.39.07.8最高PE18.319.013.217.516.323.720.230.722.512.111.117.613.010.89.4最低PE11.910.98.310.88.211.315.521.315.09.78.26.88.57.26.3指標(biāo)201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202222Q1-323Q1-3資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率61%66%67%68%69%66%65%65%64%68%70%70%70%70%71%ROE13.8%16.7%18.5%17.2%14.1%11.5%6.6%5.6%6.3%9.9%10.5%11.2%10.7%7.5%7%凈利率5.1%5.5%5.7%5.4%4.6%4.5%3.3%2.7%2.4%2.9%3.3%3.4%3.4%3.1%2.8%經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流29.041.230.020.714.819.028.328.949.147.283.322.415.0-63.8-33.7經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流/1.751.730.970.620.470.671.601.852.541.542.280.480.28-1.72-0.90凈利潤(rùn)應(yīng)收賬款28.240.549.967.984.0110.4140.7162.2173.5221.2175.6218.1250.4279.9280.2增速2%43%23%36%24%31%27%15%7%27%-21%24%15%31%0%應(yīng)收賬款/營(yíng)9%9%9%11%12%17%27%28%21%21%16%16%16%23%21%業(yè)收入減值損失0.00.30.11.21.33.711.315.612.6-15.2-9.2-4.4-1.50.9-1.1當(dāng)年股息率3.1%3.1%2.1%2.2%1.9%2.6%2.6%2.6%3.3%2.7%3.0%1.5%2.2%//年度現(xiàn)金分8.9%10.4%10.4%14.7%16.4%15.1%30.1%30.1%30.1%30.1%30.1%19.3%20.0%//紅比例訂單(億)10239798207296307059511450227225122698296923552839增速-4.3%-16%-11%-13%11.8%34.9%52.5%56.7%10.5%7.4%10.1%36.7%20.5%數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：，2024年3月27日《中材國(guó)際凈利增符合預(yù)期，經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流顯著改善》2024-2025EPS1.27/1.44(1.24/1.43)15/13%2026EPS1.60。維持目標(biāo)17.7202414倍。202314.7%34.5%(1)2023年?duì)I收458億增6.9%(1-4增0.6/-2./18.1/1.3267億增8%，7210614%29.214.7%(Q1-Q45.5/7.4/9.8/34.5%)26.826.8%(2)2023年毛利率19.29%(+.1pct)10.521.19c)6.3%(+.43ct)，ROE16.32%(+1.13pct)62.13%(-0.21pct)。2023年經(jīng)營(yíng)凈現(xiàn)金流增，應(yīng)收賬款、減值增加。(1)2023年經(jīng)營(yíng)35.4億(2211.4億)，Q1-Q4為-19.9/10.5/9.3/35.5億(22年為-21.8/20.9/-6.3/16.4)。202382%(2283%)，付現(xiàn)比75%(22年同期81%)(2)經(jīng)營(yíng)+投資現(xiàn)金流合計(jì)26.3億(22年同期-1185萬(wàn)元)(3)1014.91億2億)。2023(1)2023616億18%(220.5%)33355%54%。單季Q1-Q4103/40/30/-51%(2)2022-2024年凈利復(fù)合增速以2020年為基數(shù)不低于15.5%不低于14.9/15.4/16.2%(3)36%(3年承40%)。公司2010201120122013公司201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024E凈利潤(rùn)(億)14.2615.387.630.891.486.645.119.7713.6815.9211.3318.1021.9429.1633.67增速92%8%-50%-88%66%348%-23%91%40%16%-29%19%21%15%15%最新股本(億)262626262626262626262626262626EPS(元/股)1.881.690.700.080.140.570.290.560.790.920.650.820.961.101.27平均PE17212315678302920129141411108最高PE2629311941344735251813171913139最低PE11121612665212616981210987資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率80%76%78%81%82%76%74%73%71%68%67%67%65%62%ROE52.0%38.7%15.9%2.0%3.4%13.0%7.7%13.5%17.0%16.8%10.9%14.1%15.8%16.3%凈利率6.0%6.1%3.6%0.4%0.6%2.9%2.7%5.0%6.4%6.5%5.0%5.0%5.7%6.4%經(jīng)營(yíng)凈現(xiàn)金流15.0-28.711.4-1.814.019.724.0-19.6-16.22.517.522.19.235.4增速83%-291%139%-116%867%40%22%-182%17%115%597%1%-58%210%經(jīng)營(yíng)凈現(xiàn)金流1.05-1.871.50-2.049.432.964.69-2.01-1.180.161.541.220.421.21/凈利潤(rùn)應(yīng)收賬款/營(yíng)5.2%6.7%15.1%16.6%14.0%16.5%17.9%14.8%14.7%15.7%14.1%13.8%19.8%22.0%業(yè)收入當(dāng)年股息率0.7%1.9%2.4%3.6%2.2%2.5%4.2%3.0%5.5%4.3%4.4%2.6%3.5%4.3%年度現(xiàn)金分紅15.7%56.7%30.1%30.6%30.2%30.1%30.2%30.2%33.7%32.9%35.3%28.8%36.1%36.2%比例數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：wind，時(shí)間新簽合同新簽合計(jì)累計(jì)增速單季增速新簽合同境內(nèi)新簽時(shí)間新簽合同新簽合計(jì)累計(jì)增速單季增速新簽合同境內(nèi)新簽累計(jì)增速單季增速新簽合同境外新簽累計(jì)增速單季增速24Q461618%-51%283-8%-45%33355%-55%23Q352258%30%2385%-13%284169%96%23Q240668%40%19011%-50%216205%519%23Q1226103%103%133130%130%9473%73%22Q45150%32%273-1%-16%2422%108%22Q3313-13%-36%1946%-4%119-33%-56%