現(xiàn)代財(cái)務(wù)管理英文平臺(tái)

Topic8(Chapter5)part1

StocksandTheirValuationFeaturesofcommonstockDeterminingcommonstockvaluesEfficientmarketsPreferredstockProxy代理權(quán)Proxyfight代理權(quán)爭(zhēng)論Takeover接管Classifiedstock分類股票Founders’shares發(fā)起人股份Closelyheldcorporation非公開(kāi)持股公司Publiclyownedcorporation公開(kāi)持股公司Secondarymarket二級(jí)市場(chǎng)Primarymarket一級(jí)市場(chǎng)Goingpublic上市IntrinsicValue內(nèi)在價(jià)值Marketprice市場(chǎng)價(jià)格Requiredrateofreturn必要報(bào)酬率Expectedrateofreturn期望報(bào)酬率Actual,orrealizedrateofreturn實(shí)際報(bào)酬率Capitalgainsyield資本利得率Dividendyield股利率Expectedtotalreturn期望總收益

Zerogrowthstock零成長(zhǎng)股票Normal,orConstantgrowth正常增長(zhǎng)Supernormal,ornon-constantgrowth超正常增長(zhǎng)Equilibrium均衡Preferredstock優(yōu)先股Representsownership.Ownershipimpliescontrol.Stockholderselectdirectors.Directorshiremanagement.Management’sgoal:Maximizestockprice.FactsaboutCommonStockLegalRightsandPrivilegesofCommonStockholders1.ControloftheFirm

Itistherighttoelectafirm’sdirectors,who,inturn,electtheofficerswhomanagethebusiness.2.ThePreemptiveRight

Itistherighttopurchaseanyadditionalsharessoldbythefirm.Classifiedstockhasspecialprovisions.Couldclassifyexistingstockasfounders’shares,withvotingrightsbutdividendrestrictions.Newsharesmightbecalled“ClassA”shares,withvotingrestrictionsbutfulldividendrights.What’sclassifiedstock?Howmightclassifiedstockbeused?ClassBstockwasretainedbytheorganizersofthecompany,hadfullvotingrightsforfiveyears,butthedividendscouldnotbepaidontheClassBstockuntilthecompanyhadestablisheditsearningpowerbybuildingupretainedearningstoadesignatedlevel.Whenisastocksaleaninitialpublicoffering(IPO)?Afirm“goespublic”throughanIPOwhenthestockisfirstofferedtothepublic.PriortoanIPO,sharesaretypicallyownedbythefirm’smanagers,keyemployees,and,inmanysituations,venturecapitalproviders.AverageInitialReturnsonIPOsinVariousCountriesMalaysia100%75%50%25%BrazilPortugalJapanSwedenUnitedStatesCanadaDefinitionsofTerms1.=thedividendstockholderexpectstoreceiveattheendofyeart.2.=theactualmarketpriceofthestocktoday.3.=expectedpriceofthestockattheendofeachyeart.4.=expectedgrowthrateindividendsaspredictedbyamarginalinvestor.5.=requiredrateofreturnonthestock.6.=actual,orrealizedrateofreturnonthestock.or

=expectedrateofreturn

=expecteddividendyield+

expectedcapitalgainsyield.

orValueofStock

=PVofexpectedfuturedividendsStockpricesaredeterminedasthepresentvalueofastreamofcashflows.Theexpectedcashflowsconsistofexpecteddividendsplustheexpectedsalepriceofthestock.Thesalepricethecurrentinvestorreceiveswilldependonthedividendssomefutureinvestorexpects.So,expectedcashflowsmustbebasedonexpectedfuturedividends.Onewhosedividendsareexpectedtogrowforeverataconstantrate,g.StockValue=PVofDividendsWhatisaconstantgrowthstock?Foraconstantgrowthstock,Ifgisconstant,then:ConstantGrowthStocks$0.25Years(t)0Whathappensifg>ks?Ifks<g,getnegativestockprice,whichisnonsense.Wecan’tusemodelunless(1)g

ksand(2)gisexpectedtobeconstantforever.Becausegmustbealong-termgrowthrate,itcannotbeks.Assumebeta=1.2,kRF=7%,andkM=12%.Whatistherequiredrateofreturnonthefirm’sstock?ks =kRF+(kM-kRF)bFirm =7%+(12%-7%)(1.2) =13%.UsetheSMLtocalculateks:D0was$2.00andgisaconstant6%.Findtheexpecteddividendsforthenext3years,andtheirPVs.ks=13%.012.247222.38203g=6%41.87611.75991.6508D0=2.0013%2.12What’sthestock’smarketvalue?

D0=2.00,ks=13%,g=6%.Constantgrowthmodel:===$30.29.0.13-0.06$2.12$2.120.07Whatisthestock’smarketvalueoneyearfromnow,P1?D1willhavebeenpaid,soexpecteddividendsareD2,

D3,D4andsoon.Thus,

^$32.10.WhatwouldP0beifg=0?Thedividendstreamwouldbeaperpetuity.2.002.002.000123ks=13%P0===$15.38.PMTk$2.000.13^ExpectedRateofReturnonaConstantgrowthStockExpectedrateofreturn=Expecteddividendyield+Expectedgrowthrate,orcapitalgainsyieldExample:Foraconstantgrowthstock,theexpectedcapitalgainsyield=dividendgrowthrate=gdividendistogrowataconstantrateg=8%inthefuture.Question:Whatistheexpectedrateofreturn?1.Thedividendisexpectedtogrowforeverataconstantrate,g=8%.2.Thestockpriceisexpectedtogrowatthissamerate,g=8%

3.Theexpecteddividendyieldisaconstant=5.4%4.Theexpectedcapitalgainsyieldisalsoaconstant=g=8%5.Theexpectedtotalrateofreturn=expecteddividendyield+capitalgainsyield=expecteddividendyield+expectedgrowthrateValuingStockthatHaveaNon-constantGrowthRateIfwehavesupernormalgrowthof

30%for3years,thenalong-runconstantg=6%,whatisP0?kis

still13%.Cannolongeruseconstantgrowthmodel.However,growthesconstantafter3years.^Nonconstantgrowthfollowedbyconstantgrowth:02.30092.64703.045346.11351234ks=13%54.1067=P0g=30%g=30%g=30%g=6%D0=2.00 2.60 3.38 4.3944.6576^Whatistheexpecteddividendyieldandcapitalgainsyieldatt=0?Att=4?Dividendyield===4.8%.$2.60$54.11D1P0CGYield=13.0%-4.8%=8.2%.Att=0:(More…)Duringnonconstantgrowth,dividendyieldandcapitalgainsyieldarenotconstant.Ifcurrentgrowthisgreaterthang,currentcapitalgainsyieldisgreaterthang.Aftert=3,g=constant=6%,sothett=4capitalgainsgainsyield=6%.Becauseks=13%,thet=4dividendyield=13%-6%=7%.Thecurrentstockpriceis$54.11.ThePVofdividendsbeyondyear3is$46.11(P3discountedbacktot=0).Thepercentageofstockpricedueto“l(fā)ong-term”dividendsis:Isthestockpricebasedon

short-termgrowth?^=85.2%.$46.11$54.11Ifmostofastock’svalueisduetolong-termcashflows,whydosomanymanagersfocusonquarterlyearnings?Sometimeschangesinquarterlyearningsareasignaloffuturechangesincashflows.Thiswouldaffectthecurrentstockprice.Sometimesmanagershavebonusestiedtoquarterlyearnings.Supposeg=0fort=1to3,andthengisaconstant6%.WhatisP0?01.76991.56631.386120.98951234ks=13%25.7118g=0%g=0%g=0%g=6%2.00 2.00 2.00 2.122.12.

P300730.2857

^...Whatisdividendyieldandcapitalgainsyieldatt=0andatt=3?t=0:D1P0CGY=13.0%-7.8%=5.2%.

2.00$25.727.8%.

t=3:Nowhaveconstantgrowthwithg=capitalgainsyield=6%anddividendyield=7%.Ifg=-6%,wouldanyonebuythestock?Ifso,atwhatprice?Firmstillhasearningsandstillpaysdividends,soP0>0:^===$9.89.$2.00(0.94)0.13-(-0.06)$1.880.19Whataretheannualdividend

andcapitalgainsyield?Capitalgainsyield=g=-6.0%.Dividendyield =13.0%-(-6.0%) =19.0%.Bothyieldsareconstantovertime,withthehighdividendyield(19%)offsettingthenegativecapitalgainsyield.Analystsoftenusethefollowingmultiplestovaluestocks:P/EP/CForP/EBITDAP/SalesP/CustomerExample:Basedoncomparablefirms,estimatetheappropriateP/E.Multiplythisbyexpectedearningstobackoutanestimateofthestockprice.UsingtheMultiplesofComparableFirmstoEstimateStockPriceWhatismarketequilibrium?^Inequilibrium,stockpricesarestable.Thereisnogeneraltendencyforpeopletobuyversustosell.Theexpectedprice,P,mustequaltheactualprice,P.Inotherwords,thefundamentalvaluemustbethesameastheprice.(More…)Inequilibrium,expectedreturnsmustequalrequiredreturns:ks=D1/P0+g=ks=kRF+(kM-kRF)b.^Howisequilibriumestablished?Ifks=+g>ks,thenP0is“toolow.”Ifthepriceislowerthanthefundamentalvalue,thenthestockisa“bargain.”Buyorderswillexceedsellorders,thepricewillbebidup,andD1/P0fallsuntil D1/P0+g=ks=ks.^^D1P0^Whydostockpriceschange?

ki=kRF+(kM-kRF)bicouldchange.InflationexpectationsRiskaversionCompanyriskgcouldchange.^MarginalInvestor’schoiceTherequiredrateofreturnonstockI:Foraconstantgrowthstock,theexpectedrateofreturnonstockI:ThemarginalinvestorwillwanttobuystockIonlyifitsexpectedrateofreturnismorethanitsrequiredrateofreturn.Themarginalinvestorwillwanttosellitifitsexpectedrateofreturnislessthanitsrequiredrateofreturn.Themarginalinvestorwillbeindifferent,hencewillholdbutnotbuyorsell,ifitsexpectedrateofreturnequalsitsrequiredrateofreturn.Example:WillInvestorbuystockI?StockIhasabetaof2,therisk-freerateofreturnis8percent,therequiredrateofreturnonanaveragestockis12percent.Theearnings,dividendsandpriceareexpectedtogrowataconstantrateof5percentperyear.Thelastdividendwas$2.8571.Thepresentpriceofthestockis$30.TherequiredrateofreturnonstockI:TheexpectedrateofreturnonstockI:Becausetheexpectedrateofreturn15%islessthantherequiredrateofreturn16%,sothismarginalinvestorwouldwanttosellthestock.StockMarketEquilibrium1.Astock’sexpectedrateofreturnequalsitsrequiredrateofreturn:2.Theactualmarketpriceofthestockequalsitsintrinsicvalue:Example:ChangesinEquilibriumStockPriceOriginalrequiredrateofreturn:Originalstockprice:Attheoriginalprice,theexpectedrateofreturnequalstherequiredrateofreturn:

VariableValueOriginalNewRisk-freerate8%7%Marketriskpremium4%3%Betacoefficient2.01.0Expectedgrowthrate5%6%Currentdividend