英國氣候及能源智庫機(jī)構(gòu)恩伯（Ember）：2024年歐洲電力評論

European

ElectricityReview

2024

Europe’selectricitytransition

takescrucialstridesforward

2

About

TheEuropeanElectricityReviewanalysesfull-yearelectricitygenerationanddemand

datafor2023inallEU-27countriestounderstandtheregion’sprogressintransitioning

fromfossilfuelstocleanelectricity.ItistheeighthannualreportontheEUpowersector

publishedbyEmber(previouslyasSandbag).Ourdataisfreeandeasilydownloadable,andisavailableatannualandmonthlygranularity.Wehopeothersalsofindthedatausefulfor

theirownanalysis.

Leadauthors

SarahBrownandDaveJones.

Othercontributors

NicolasFulghum,ChelseaBruce-Lockhart,AlisonCandlin,MattEwen,Pawe?Czy?ak,KostantsaRangelova,LeoHeberer,ChrisRosslowe,ReynaldoDizon,JosieMurdoch,HannahBroadbent,PhilMacDonald,SamHawkins,RichardBlack,AdityaLolla,HarryBenham.

Disclaimer

Theinformationinthisreportiscompleteandcorrecttothebestofourknowledge,butifyouspotanerror,pleaseemailinfo@.

CreativeCommons

ThisreportispublishedunderaCreativeCommonsShareAlikeAttributionLicence(CC

BY-SA4.0).Youareactivelyencouragedtoshareandadaptthereport,butyoumustcredittheauthorsandtitle,andyoumustshareanymaterialyoucreateunderthesamelicence.

Copyright?Ember,2024

3

Contents

05Executivesummary

09Chapter1:Pathwaytocleanpower

09Encouragingprogressindifficulttimes

11Chapter2:TheBigPicture

12Insight1:Recordfossilcollapseshowstheshifttocleanpowerinaction

20Insight2:WindandsolararedrivingrenewablesgrowthtowardsREPowerEU

targets

30Insight3:Afterdisruptiontodemand,anincreaseisonthehorizon

36Insight4:TheEUmovestowardsanewmodeofsystemflexibility

45Chapter3:EUElectricityTrends

46ElectricityGeneration:EUElectricityTrends2023

49ElectricityDemand:EUElectricityTrends2023

53PowerSectorCO2Emissions:EUElectricityTrends2023

57Chapter4:EUElectricitySourceTrends

58Solar

62Wind

66Coal

70Gas

74Hydro

78Nuclear

82Bioenergy

4

Contents

86Conclusion

87Supportingmaterials

87Methodology

94Acknowledgements

Highlights

-19%

44%

55TWh

Recordfallgeneration

inbothfossil

andCO2emissions

RecordshareofrenewablesintheEUelectricitymix,over40%forthefirsttime

Recordannualgrowthinwindgenerationpushesitabove

gasforthefirsttime

ExecutiveSummary

Europe'selectricity

transitiontakescrucial

stridesforward

Arecordfallincoal,gasandCO2emissionsin2023lefttheEUwithacleanerelectricitymixthanever,asrenewablestookmajorstepsforward.TheEU'selectricitytransitionisinfullswing.

2023:RecordfallsinEUcoalandgaselectricitygenerationpushpowersectoremissionsdown19%

Annualchange(%)

Coalgeneration

Source:Annualelectricitydata,Ember

Gasgeneration

Powersectoremissions

EMB=R

6

everannualcapacityadditions.Furthermore,windgenerationreachedamajormilestone,

TheEUaccelerateditsshiftawayfromfossilfuelsin2023,withrecordfallsincoal,gasand

emissions.Fossilfuelsdroppedbyarecord19%totheirlowesteverlevelatlessthanone

thirdoftheEU'selectricitygeneration.Renewablesrosetoarecord44%share,surpassing

growth,producingarecord27%ofEUelectricityin2023andachievingtheirlargest

40%forthefirsttime.Windandsolarcontinuedtobethedriversofthisrenewables

surpassinggasforthefirsttime.

Cleangenerationreachedmorethantwo-thirdsofEUelectricity,doublefossil'sshare,ashydroreboundedandnuclearpartiallyrecoveredfromlastyear'slowsalongsidetheincreaseinwindandsolar.

Coalwasalreadyinlong-termdecline,andthattrendresumedin2023.Thetemporary

slowdownincoalplantclosuresduringtheenergycrisisdidnotpreventahugefallincoalgenerationthisyear,withawaveofplantclosuresimminentin2024.Gasgenerationfellforthefourthconsecutiveyear,andascoalnearsphase-outinmanycountries,gaswillbenexttoenterterminaldecline.

Source:Annual'Otherincludes

electricitydata,Ember

bioenergy,otherfossiland

otherrenewables

EMB=R

Inadditiontocleangrowth,fallingelectricitydemandalsocontributedtothedropinfossilfuelgeneration.Demandfellby3.4%(-94TWh)in2023comparedto2022,andwas6.4%(-186TWh)lowerthan2021levelswhentheenergycrisisbegan.Thistrajectoryisunlikelytocontinue.Withincreasedelectrification,thisrateofdemandfallisnotexpectedtobe

repeatedinthecomingyears.ToreducefossilfuelsatthespeedrequiredtohitEUclimategoals,renewableswillneedtokeeppaceasdemandincreases.

7

TheEUisfirmlyonitswaytotransitionfromafossil-basedsystemtoonewherewindandsolararethebackbone.In2023,24%ofhourssawlessthanaquarterofelectricitycomingfromfossilfuels,amajorstepupfromjust4%ofhoursin2022.Asthisshiftbecomesevenmoreevident,sodoestheimportanceofenablersofacleanpowersystem.Alongside

windandsolargrowth,grids,storageanddemandsideresponsewilldeterminethepowersystemofthefuture.

01

02

03

Unprecedentedcollapseincoalandgasgeneration

Fossilgenerationplummetedbyarecord19%(-209TWh)in2023,toaccountforlessthanathirdoftheEU’selectricitymixforthefirsttime.Coalgenerationfell

by26%(-116TWh)toitslowestlevelever(333TWh),makingupjust12%ofthe

EUelectricitymixin2023.Coalgenerationhalvedfrom2016to2023(-327TWh)duetoasimilarriseinwindandsolargeneration(+354TWh).Coalplantclosuresslowedduringtheenergycrisis,butcoal’sstructuraldeclinecontinuesasafifth

oftheEU’scoalfleetwillshutdownin2024and2025.Thecollapseincoaldidnotresultinariseingas.Gasgenerationfellby15%(-82TWh)to452TWh,thelargestannualreductionsinceatleast1990.Thiswasthefourthconsecutiveyearofgasgenerationdecline,withgasaccountingfor17%oftotalEUgenerationin2023.

RecordfallinEUpowersectoremissions

EUpowersectoremissionsfellarecord19%(-157milliontonnesofcarbondioxideequivalent)in2023.Thiseclipsedtheprevioushighestannualdropof13%in

2020,whentheCovid-19pandemicstruck.Powersectoremissionshavenow

almostbeencutinhalf(-46%)sincetheirpeakin2007.Elevencountriesachievedtheirlargestemissionsfallsever.Windandsolargrowthwasresponsibleformuchofthedecline,withelectricitydemandalsoplayingasignificantrole.Electricity

demanddroppedby3.4%in2023.Thismeantdemandwas6.4%lowerin2023

thanitwasin2021whentheenergycrisisbegan–justoverathird(38%)ofthefallinthatperiodcanbeattributedtoareductioninindustrialelectricityconsumption

Windpowerexceedsgasforthefirsttime

Windpowersawrecordannualgenerationgrowthin2023of55TWh(+13%).

Thisresultedingenerationfromwindsurpassinggasforthefirsttime.Electricityproducedfromwindwas475TWh,equivalenttoFrance’stotalelectricitydemand,comparedto452TWhfromgas.Thiswastheonlyyearthatwindgeneration

exceededthatofcoal(333TWh)asidefrom2020amidCovid-19impacts.17

GWofwindpowerwasinstalledin2023comparedto16GWin2022,marginallyachievingthehighesteverannualcapacityincrease.However,thisdeploymentrateneedstoalmostdoubletoover30GWperyearto2030iftheEUisto

achieveitstargets.

8

〇4

Windandsolardriverecordshareofrenewables

Forthefirsttime,morethanaquarterofEUelectricity(27%)wasprovidedby

windandsolarin2023,upfrom23%in2022.Thisdroverenewableelectricityto

arecordhighof44%,passingthe40%markforthefirstyearintheEU'shistory.

Combinedwindandsolargenerationincreasedbyarecord90TWhandinstalledcapacityby73GW.Solarcontinueditsstronggrowthwith56GWofadditional

capacityin2023,comparedto41GWin2022(+37%).Butsolarfailedtomatchits2022year-on-yeargenerationgrowth(+36TWhin2023versus+48TWhin2022).TheEU'selectricitysystemcontinueditsshifttowardsonepoweredbywindandsolaras24%ofhourssawlessthanaquarterofelectricitycomingfromfossilfuels,upfromjust4%ofhoursin2022.Grids,storageandotherenablersofsystem

flexibilitywillbeincreasinglycriticalaswindandsolar'ssharecontinuestogrow.

TheEU'spowersectorisinthemiddleofamonumentalshift.Fossilfuelsareplayingasmallerrolethaneverasasystemwithwindandsolaras

itsbackbonecomesintoview.TheenergycrisisandRussia'sinvasion

ofUkrainedidnotleadtocoalandgasresurgence-farfromit.Coalisnearingphase-out,andaswindandsolargrow,gaswillbenexttoenterterminaldecline.Howeveritisnottimetogetcomplacent.TheEUneedsalaserfocusonrapidlydeployingwind,solarandflexibilitytocreatea

systemfreeoffossilfuels.

SarahBrown

EuropeProgrammeDirector,Ember

Chapter1?Pathwaytocleanpower

Encouragingprogressindifficulttimes

Europe’spowersectortransitionmadecrucialprogressin2023astheenergysystememergedfromaperiodcharacterisedbyhighprices

andpoliticalintervention.WhiletheEUstrengthenedrenewables

ambitioninresponse,MemberStatesarenotyetaiminghighenoughforcommonEUgoals,anddeliveryremainstooslow.

Thegascrisisof2022exposedthemanycostsoffossilfueldependency.Itcost

governmentsbillionsofeurosinenergysubsidies,plungedmillionsofEuropeansintoenergypoverty,putglobalenergysecurityatriskanddroveinflationtothehighest

levelsindecades.

Whileconsumersandbusinessesstillstrugglewiththeeconomicfallout,theclimatecrisiscontinuestointensify,with2023thesecondhottestyearonrecordinEurope.Againstthisbackdrop,itisclearthatthetransitiontoaffordablerenewablepower

willhelponmultiplefronts.ThereareencouragingsignsthatEuropeisbolsteringitsambitionandpickingupthepace,butdeliveryisstillnotfastenoughfortheEU’senergygoalsorinternationalclimateobligations.

AswindandsolarpowerreachnewhighsacrossEurope,targetssetbytheEUanditsMemberStateshavebeguntoshifttoreflectafutureenergysystemdominatedby

renewablepower.TheREPowerEUplanforesees72%ofpowergenerationcomingfromrenewablesby2030,upfrom44%in2023.Thisisdrivenbywindandsolar,

whichwilldoublefrom27%in2023to55%in2030.

EUMemberStateshavestartedtorealigntheirNationalEnergyandClimatePlans

(NECPs)withthisfuture,increasingtheir2030windandsolartargetsby45%and

70%respectively,comparedtojustfouryearsago.WhilenotyetsufficienttodeliveronEUgoals,thelatestplansputwindandsolarontracktoproducethemajorityofEUpowerby2030,withwindasthesinglelargestsource.

10

Europe’sdirectionoftraveltowardscleanpowerwasentrenchedfurtherbykeypoliticalstatementsin2023.SeveninterconnectedMemberStatespledgedtodecarbonisetheirpowersystemsby2035,meaning10MemberStateshavenowformallyalignedwiththiscriticalmilestonefornetzero.

Furthermore,Czechia,Europe’sthirdlargestcoalpowerproducer,joinedthePowering

PastCoalAlliance.TheyearconcludedwiththecallfromCOP28totransitionawayfromfossilfuels,includingtheEUadvocatingforthetriplingofrenewablesanddoublingoftherateofenergyefficiencyimprovementsgloballyby2030.Thiscanbeseenasaglobal

recognitionofthesekeytoolsforclimateaction,andplacesevenmoreemphasisontheEUtodeliver.

Heightenedambitionsmeannothingwithoutdelivery.Despitebreakingrecordsin2023,windpowercontinuedtostruggleagainsteconomicheadwinds.Deploymentmust

beacceleratedifEUgoalsaretobeachieved.Theroll-outofsolarpowerisamore

positivestory,withstrongcapacitygrowthmaintainedin2023,butnowisnotthetime

forcomplacency.Thechallengesfacingthepowersectortransitionarecomplexbut

increasinglywellunderstood:fromslowpermittingtooutdatedgridinfrastructureand

vulnerabilitytoglobalsupplychains.Thesecomplexchallengesrequirededicatedaction,guidedbyaclearandunitedvisionforacleanpowersystem.

Thepowersectortransitionmustremainapoliticalfocusin2024inordertoconsolidateandbuildontheprogressmadelastyear.Ahighlyelectrifiedenergysystembased

oncheap,domesticrenewablescanpowerEurope’seconomywhileslashingcarbon

emissions.Rapidprogressisessentialinordertoseizethecommercialadvantages,upholdinternationalclimatecommitments,andexpeditethebenefitsofcheaprenewablesacrossEurope.

Chapter2?Insights

TheBigPicture

Thebiggeststoriesof2023:Fossilpowercollapsedaswindandsolarhitnewrecordsanddemandslumped.Flexibilityemergedaskeyto

steppingupthispowersystemshift.

Chaptercontents

12Insight1:Recordfossilcollapseshowstheshifttocleanpowerinaction

20Insight2:Windandsolararedrivingrenewablesgrowthtowards

REPowerEUtargets

30Insight3:Afterdisruptiontodemand,anincreaseisonthehorizon

36Insight4:TheEUmovestowardsanewmodeofsystemflexibility

12

Insight1:

Recordfossilcollapse

showstheshifttoclean

powerinaction

2023followedanextremelyturbulentyearforEUelectricity.In2022,

hydrogenerationhitarecordlowduetoextremedroughts,andnuclear

generationdroppedtothelowestoutputin30yearsduetounexpectedoutagesatFrenchnuclearplants.Combined,theseleftagapof7%oftheEU'soverallgeneration,pushingfossilgenerationupby2%in2022.Goinginto2023,theexpectationwasthatfossilfuelgenerationwouldrapidlyfalltocorrectforthese.2023didnotdisappoint.

Arecordfallincoal,gasandCO2emissionsin2023lefttheEUwitha

cleanerelectricitymixthanever,amidaprogressingenergytransitionandasustainedresponsetoturbulentconditions.Thetemporaryslowdownincoalplantclosuresduringtheenergycrisisdidnotpreventahugefallin

coalgenerationthisyear,andgasgenerationfellforthefourthconsecutiveyear.

13

RecordfallsincoalandgasasfossilfuelsdropbelowathirdofEUpower

Bothcoalandgasgenerationhadarecordpercentagefallin2023,leadingtoarecord

dropinpowersectorCO2emissionsaswell.FossilgenerationfelltolessthanathirdoftheEU'selectricity(33%)forthefirsttimeever.

2023:RecordfallsinEUcoalandgaselectricitygenerationpushpower

sectoremissionsdown19%

Annualchange(%)

CoalgenerationGasgenerationPowersectoremissions

20

10-

-20

-30

Coalpower

generationfellby

arecord26%in2023、

20102015

2020

20012005

20012005

Gaspowerfell

byarecord15%…

201020152020

20012005

….causingemissions

tofallbyarecord19%

2010

Source:Annualelectricitydata,EmberEMB=R

Coalgenerationfellby26%(-116TWh)to333TWh,thelargestannualpercentage

reductionsinceatleast1990.Asaresult,coaldroppedtothelowestlevelever,belowthepreviousrecordlowin2020(352TWh),morethanerasingtheupticksduringthelasttwoyears(+96TWh).Coalmadeupjust12%oftheEU'selectricityin2023.

Gasgenerationfellby15%to452TWh.Thisisthebiggestannualreductionsinceatleast1990andthefourthyearinarowthatithasdeclined.In2023,gasgenerationwas20%belowthepre-Covidlevelin2019(569TWh),butitwasstillabovethelowestyearon

record.At17%oftheEU'selectricitymix,gasgeneratedmorepowerthancoal(12%)in2023.

Recordfallinpowersectoremissions

Powersectoremissionsfellby19%(-157milliontonnesCO2(MtCO2)),alsoarecordannualdeclineandthelargestdropsinceatleast1990.Itisunusualthatlargereductionsincoalandgasgenerationhappensimultaneously,sincefallsoftenoccurduetoswitchingfromonefueltoanother.Asaresult,2023'semissionsfalleclipsedthepreviousrecord13%

dropin2020amidimpactsfromCovid-19.Powersectoremissionsin2023arenowalmosthalf(-46%)theirpeak,whichoccurredin2007.

14

ElevenEUcountriessetrecordsfortheirbiggestannualpercentagefallsinpowersectorCO2emissions.Ofthese,Bulgariarecordedthelargestfallin2023at44%,primarily

becauseitexportedlesscoalpower.Spain'semissionsfellby25%,dueequallytoariseinsolarandafallinelectricitydemand.Germany'semissionsfellby21%,muchofwhichwasduetoariseinwindandsolarreplacingcoalgeneration(whilstincreasedelectricityimportsmetthefallinnucleargenerationasGermanycloseditsfinalreactors).The

Netherlands'emissionsfellby16%aswindsignificantlyincreased.Czechia'semissionsfellby16%asitwasunabletoexportasmuchcostlycoalgeneration.Poland'sfellby15%ascoalgenerationwasreplacedbyacombinationofmorewind,solarandgas,more

electricityimportsandlowerdemand.

Fossilfellduetoamixoffactors

Fossilfuelgenerationfellbyarecord209TWh(-19%)in2023.Risingwindandsolargenerationcontributedto43%(90TWh)ofthefallinfossilfuelgeneration.Declinesinelectricitydemandaccountedfor45%ofthedrop.

Inaddition,hydrogenerationreboundedsignificantlyin2023(+15%)aftera1-in-500yeardroughthitmainlandEuropein2022.Frenchnucleargenerationalsorecoveredafterhugefallsin2022duetoextendedplantoutages,whichmeantEUnucleargenerationwasup1.5%.

Thesubstantialfallinfossilgenerationwasanticipated.Lastyear,Emberpredicteda20%

(211TWh)dropinfossilgenerationfor2023,comparedtoanactual19%(209TWh)decline

15

Abigfallinfossilgenerationwaspredictedfor2023

Year-on-yearchangeinelectricitygeneration,TWh

■HydroWindandsolarFossilNuclear

2023projectionmadebyEmberinJanuary2023

90

86

100

50

4041

2022demand=

2,809TWh

-50

9

-209

-21100-85

-94

-100

electricitydata,Ember;Embercalculations

bioenergy,otherrenewables,otherfossilfuels

Demand

Actual(2023)

Source:Annual

*Otherincludes

EMB=R

andnetimports

Other*

-25

0

16

WhatEmber'sanalysisdidnotanticipatewasthatthemajorityofthefallinfossilfuelusewouldbefromcoalgeneration.Outofthe209TWhdrop,overhalf(56%,116TWh)wascoal.Gasgenerationwasfarmoreexpensivethancoalthroughout2022,butthisdidnotpersistforlonginto2023,asgasgenerationcostsreturnedtosimilarlevelsascoal.

Europe'scoalphase-outgatherspace

Coalgenerationfellbyarecord26%in2023.However,amidsttheenergycrisis,only4%oftheEU'scoalfleet(4GW)closedfrom2021to2023.Theclosuresofsomecoalpowerplantswerepostponedandasmallproportionofunitscamebackintooperationaspartofemergencyreserves.

Thisisabouttochange.Afifth(21GW)oftheEU'scoalfleetwillclosein2024and2025.

Thisincludes10GWofcoalpowerplantsinGermany,mostofwhicharescheduledto

shutdowninApril2024.In2025,alargenumberofcoalplantswillcloseinltaly,PolandandGreece.Spainwillcloseitsremainingcoalpowerplantsin2025.

17

AfifthoftheEU'scoalplantfleetwillcloseinthenexttwoyears

EUcoalcapacity(GW)

20%oftheEU'scoalplantfleetwillcloseoverthenexttwoyears

4%fallincoalcapacity

inthe2yearsto2023

150

EUcoalcapacityclosures(GW)

2022■202312024■2025

Germany

Italy

Poland

Spain

100

50

Pri

23

ons

0

2010

2015

2021

25

Source:BeyondFossilFuels:EuropeanCoalPlantDatabase,Ember

Greece

Denmark

Romania

Finland

Slovakia

Austria

Slovenia

calculations

2468

EMB=R

TheseclosurescontinueapatternofstructuraldeclineforcoalintheEU,alongsideashifttorenewables.EUcoalgenerationhashalvedsince2016(-49.5%).Coalgenerationfellby327TWhfrom2016to2023,comparedtoariseinwindandsolargenerationof354TWh.Thehalvingofcoalcanbecompletelyattributedtotheriseinwindandsolargeneration.Coalsdeclinedidnotleadtohighergasgeneration:evenascoalgenerationhalved,gasgenerationshowedaslightfall(-3%)since2016.

AscoalnearsitsenddateacrosstheEU,thenextbigshiftwillbeawayfromgas.In

manycountries,coalhasbeenalmostphasedout,soasthebuild-outofwindandsolar

acceleratesgasgenerationwillalsobegintofall.Thisisespeciallytrueinthekeygas

burningcountriesofltaly,SpainandtheNetherlands,whichaccountedforhalf(51%)oftheEU'sgasgenerationin2023.Across2023,theshareofcoalinthesecountrieshadfallento5%,1.5%and7%respectively;inmultiplehourstherewasnocoalgenerationrunning.

18

WindandsolarhavepushedoutcoalinItaly,SpainandtheNetherlands.Gaswillbenext

TWh

GasCoalWindandsolarOther

ItalySpainNetherlands

300

200

100

0

20162023201620232016

EMB=R

Source:Annualelectricitydata,Ember

2023

19

TheEUhasmadehugestridesinitselectricitytransitionin2023,withfossilfuelsnow

makinguplessthanathirdoftheEU’selectricity.Theslowdownofcoalplantclosures

duringtheenergycrisisdidnotpreventasubstantialfallincoalgenerationthisyearandthecoalphase-outcontinues.Gasgenerationhasfallenforthelastfourconsecutive

yearsanditsdeclinelookssettogatherpace.Asfossilfuelsgetpushedfurtheroutoftheelectricitymix,emissionswillfallatafasterpacetowardstheEU’s2030reductiontargets.

20

Insight2:

WindandsolararedrivingrenewablesgrowthtowardsREPowerEUtargets

Forthefirsttime,morethanaquarterofEUelectricity(27%)camefrom

windandsolarin2023,with10countriesabovethislevel.Windandsolar

droverenewableelectricitypastthe40%markforthefirstyearinEU's

historyaswell,reaching44%ofEUelectricitygenerationin2023.

21

Theshareofrenewableelectricityincreasedby14percentagepointsinthelastseven

years,butthispaceneedstoalmostdoubleoverthenextseventoreachthe72%of

generationtargetproposedinREPowerEU.Therenewablesgrowthsince2017hascomefromincreasedwindandsolargeneration,withbioenergystagnantandhydrodecliningoverthesameperiod.

Windandsolararegrowing,butpacemustincrease

In2023,windgenerationgrewby55TWh(+13%)andsolarby36TWh(+17%)comparedto2022.Combined,windandsolarachievedtheirhighestyear-on-yearincreaseonrecord.Andwindexceededitspreviouspeakannualgrowthof45TWh(+17%)in2017by8TWh.

However,afteranexceptionalyearin2022,solargenerationgrowthwaslowerin2023

by25%,droppingfrom48TWhto36TWh.Andwhilewindgenerationgrowthwasstrongin2023,ithasbeeninconsistentoverthepastdecade.Thisisconcerning,becauseto

reachtheEUs2030climatetargetsandstayontrackfor1.5C,thepaceofwindandsolardeploymentneedstobeaccelerating.

22

Source:Annualelectricitydata,Ember,EuropeanCommissionREPowerEUmodelling.

EMB=R

Afixedpercentagegrowthpathwayforwindandsolarisassumed,startingfrom2022andreaching2030generationvaluesfromEuropeanCommissionmodelling

WindandsolargrowthneedstoacceleratetoreachEUrenewablestargets

EUelectricitygenerationfromwindandsolaragainsttargets(TWh)

TotalgenerationAnnualchange(actual)Annualchange(neededtoreachtargets)

SolarWind

Pathwayto

REPowerEU

1000

500

0

20152020202520302015202020252030

PathwaytoREPowerEU

Wind'sstrongperformancein2023ledtoanimportantmilestone:windalonesurpassed

EUgaspowerforthefirsttime,reaching18%ofelectricitygeneration(475TWhcomparedto452TWhforgas).2023wasalsothefirstyear(otherthanCovid-19-impacted2020)

whenwindelectricityexceededcoal(333TWh).TheEU'stotalinstalledwindcapacitygrewby17GW(+8%)in2023upto219GW.

Source:AnnualOtherincludes

electricitydata,Ember

bioenergy,otherfossiland

otherrenewables

EMB=R

23

Still,evenwind’s13%rateofgenerationgrowthisnotenoughtomeettheREPowerEUtargetsthatwouldrequireatleast15%yearlyincreasesinwindelectricitygeneration,consistentlyuntil2030.

Wind’sfutureisstilltobedetermined

Severalriskfactorshavehistoricallynegativelyimpactedwindpowerdeployment,and

couldagain.Thefactormentionedmostoftenislongpermittingtimesexceedingfour

yearsinalmostallEUcountriesforonshorewind,andtwicethatormoreforoffshorewind.Meanwhile,theindustryhasbeenflaggingariseincostsacrossthesupplychainandtherehavealsobeenreportedtechnicalissueswithsomewindturbines.

However,thereweresomepositiveindicationsforwindin2023.Thefirstoffshorewind

auctionwasresolvedinLithuania,LatviaannouncedapotentialincreaseinitsfirstoffshorewindfarmcapacityELWINDandGermanauctionsawarded7GWofoffshorewind

projects.Alsopositively,inalong-awaitedmove,thePolishgovernmentchangedthe

veryrestrictiveonshorewinddistancinglawandtheHungariangovernmentissendingpositivesignalsaboutasimilarlegislativechangeaswell.

2024willbeadefiningyearforoffshorewind,witharecord50GWofoffshorewindduetobeauctioned.Theresultsoftheseauctionswillindicatejusthowimportant,ornot,offshorewindwillbetoEurope’senergyfuture.

Despitefears,solarisgoingstrong

Recentconcernsforsolardeploymenthaveinc