德國(guó)三大零售趨勢(shì)值得關(guān)注

ECONOMIC

ANDSPENDINGINSIGHTSREPORTOCTOBER

2023Three

retail

trends

towatch

in

GermanyTHREE

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GERMANY1Propelling

Germany’sretail

industry

forwardINTRODUCTIONAs

Germanygrappleswithanuncertaineconomicenvironment,consumerspendinghascontinuedtoshowresilience,eveninthefaceofinflationthathasimpactedhouseholdbudgets.Consumersarereturningtothestorestofindinspirationandenjoytheexperienceofshoppingtogetherwithfriendsandfamily.

Someconveniencesbornefromthepandemic,suchascurbsideservices,areheretostay.

Theshiftingeconomicenvironmenthascreatednewdynamics,butGermany’sretailindustryismovingforward.Today,

retailersareadoptingnewtacticstoanticipatethechangingneedsoftheircustomers,including:?

rethinkingtheirbrick-and-mortarstrategies,?

experimentingwithnewstorelayouts,?

adjustingproductassortments,and?

enablingnewtechnologiesthatencouragecustomerinteraction.Onethingisclear—Germany’sretailindustrywillcontinuetoevolveasconsumersmakechoicesabouthowtospendin2023.To

helpretailersnavigatethischangingenvironment,Mastercard,alongwithRetailCapitalPartners(RCP),aleadingretailstrategyconsultingfirm,haveco-authoredthisreporttoproviderelevantinsightsbasedonMastercard’saggregatedandanonymizedproprietarydataandRCP’sspecificknowledgeoftheGermanretailmarket.Inthisreport,youcanlearn:?

howtheeconomyandconsumersareshapingGermany’sretailindustryin2023.?

theleadingtrendstowatch,fromcostpressuresandconsumerrestrainttothereturntoin-personshopping.?

howretailersareusingallthetoolsattheirdisposaltomakethebestdecisionsinanuncertaineconomicenvironment.THREE

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GERMANY2TREND#1InflationcausescostpressuresandconsumerrestraintIncreasingly,retailersarelookingtorespondtoconsumers’higherpricesensitivity.At

thesametime,retailersareexperiencingincreasedcostpressurefromsuppliersandserviceproviders,aswellasinadvertisingexpensesandcostofcapital.There’saneedtooptimizecorebusinessactivities,frominventorymanagementtomarketingcampaigns.MastercardSpendingPulse?,whichmeasuresin-storeandonlineretailsalesacrossallformsofpayment,revealsthattheretailspendingtrendinGermanyisholdingsteady,butisnotaspositiveasinsomeotherEuropeancountries,whenlookingatthefirsthalfof2023comparedto

2022.RetailspendinginGermanyMastercard

SpendingPulse?Total

retail

sales

growth

ratesH12023vs.

H12022(advancedestimates,subjected

tochange)TotalOnlineIn-store+8.2%Electronics

GroceryFurniture

ApparelHomeJewelry+4.7%retail*improvementsPoland+9.6%+0.8%+4.4%+25.7%-9.5%-6.6%-0.5%+18.8%+4.6%+9.9%-5.4%-9.8%+6.5%+8.8%-9.9%+5.4%-3.1%+1.9%-2.0%GermanyNetherlands-11.7%+14.4%+3.9%+3.0%-6.7%+7.4%*ExcludingautomotivesectorSource:MastercardSpendingPulse.whichmeasuresin-storeandonlineretailsalesacrossallformsofpayment.Note:

ThisisnotanexhaustivelistofSpendingPulse?sectors.Forinformationonthefulllistofsectors,pleasecontactaMastercardrepresentative.WhileGermany’sgrowthrateinthefirsthalfof2023was+0.8%yearoveryear(YoY),

PolandandtheNetherlandsshowedsolidYoY

growthwith+9.6%

and+4.4%

respectively.AlthoughthereisanoverallincreaseinretailspendinginGermany,therearenuancesamongthesectors.AglobaltrendofconsumersshiftingfrombuyingdurablegoodstoinvestinginexperiencesisalsoseeninGermany,withrestaurantandlodgingsalesshowingsignificantdouble-digitgrowth.Electronicssalesdeclinedby

6.6%

YoY,

furnituresalesby

9.8%

YoY

andapparelby

9.9%

YoY.

On

theotherhand,homeimprovementandgroceryshowedpositiveYoY

growth,reaching+1.9%

and+4.6%,respectively,partiallyduetoinflation.THREE

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GERMANY3TREND#1Productspotlight:MastercardSpendingPulse?MastercardSpendingPulse?isamacroeconomic

indicator

of

retail

salesacross

all

payment

types

thathelpsrevealkey

businessopportunitiesbyaccessingmarketintelligence.SpendingPulsederivestotalandsector-levelretailsalesby

aggregatinganonymizedsalesactivity

intheMastercardpaymentsnetworkandsurvey-basedestimatesforotherpaymenttypes(includingcash).

Theseaggregatesarethenadjustedtoaccountformacroeconomicfactors,sotheyarerepresentativeofconsumerretailspend.SpendingPulsereflectsnominalspendingandisnotadjustedforinflation.SpendingPulseprovidesaccesstoauserinterfacetoenabledynamicvisualizationsoflocalperformancebenchmarks,includingsalesperformanceby

daysince2018andwithweeklyupdateswithadelayof9-13

days.Salesmetricsincludedailysalesby

purchasechannel(in-store,online)anddailyforecastsforthenext

18months.There’snotechnicalintegrationrequired;onlynamesandemailaddressesarerequiredforuseraccountsetup.You

canexportanyplatformdataorvisualstoExcel.InEurope,SpendingPulseisavailableintheU.K.,France,Italy,

Hungary,Czechia,Germany,Netherlands,PolandandSpain.Sectorsavailableincludetotalretail(excludingtheautomotivesector)andnineotherindustrysectors.Find

more

informationonourwebsite:/spendingpulseTHREE

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GERMANY4USECASEGermanomnichannelretailerunlockssupplychainEspeciallyintimeswithhighpricesensitivitybothonthesupplyanddemandside,retailersaimtooptimizeandautomatetheirbusinessprocessestomakethembetter,fasterandmoreeconomical.Followingthisnotion,RetailCapitalPartners(RCP)supportedaGermanomnichannelretailerinredesigningandautomatingits

planning,allocationandreplenishmentprocesses,whichunlockednetpotentialsofmorethan€5

millionperyear.GoalStrategyResultThe

company

showeda

high

out-of-stock

rateand

high

markdowns

duetoa

manual

and

error-proneallocation

ofgoods

ina

seasonalmarket.The

goal

was

to

improvethe

distributionofgoods

byTheprojectinitiallyincludedtheselectionofanimplementationpartnerandthedevelopmentofaminimumviableproducttotestthefitofthepartner.Inthefollowingblueprintphase,therequirementsTogetherwiththeclearalignmentbetweenforecastandautomatedsupplychaindecisions,theprojectapproachenabledproductseasonalitytoco-controlactionsforallocationandreplenishmentovertimewhileconsideringcustomizedparameterchanges.As

adirectresult,thetotalstockcouldbereducedby

overtwopercentfromallocationimprovementsalone.Furthermore,thedevelopedimplementing

a

solution

forallocation

andprocessesoftheproductwereand

replenishment

with

a

highdefinedindetail.Usinga‘forecastfirst’

approach,themodelwasdevelopedwithregardtoquality,data,processesandalgorithms.Finally,theallocationreplenishmentautomation

degree

and

maximumpostponementability.The

efficiencygains

in

the

supply

chain,

in

turn,positively

impact

revenue

by

reducingthe

shareof

discountedproducts

andwrite-offs.

Depending

on

industrydecisionswerebasedontheresulting

mechanismincorporatesminimumforecast.Theprojectscopewasstockinglevelsandsizeprogressions,aswellasmatchingandstorageofand

retailer,

transforming

profitability

about€1billionturnoverandaboutimprovements

into

topline

effectscansignificantly

multiply

the

supplychain

potentialin

this

‘intelligentrestructuring’

approach.8millionSKU/locationcombinations.

partialstockquantities.

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GGEERRMMAANNYY5TREND#2In-personshoppingreturnsConsumersaregravitatingtowardexperiences,andthelatestSpendingPulseinsightsshowthattheyarewillingandabletoexperiencein-personshoppingagain.OnlineversusofflinespendinginGermanyMastercard

SpendingPulse?ChannelgrowthratesandpercentageofretailsalesbysectorGermany:

H1

2023

vs.

H1

2022TotalApparel-9.9%Electronics-6.6%Furniture-9.8%HomeJewelry-6.7%retail*improvementsTotal

retail*Online+0.8%-11.7%+3.9%+1.9%-29.2%+4.0%-13.2%-9.1%-23.5%+1.9%-26.7%+3.4%-13.4%-5.8%In-store*ExcludingautomotivesectorSource:

MastercardSpendingPulse.whichmeasuresin-storeandonlineretailsalesacrossallformsofpayment.Totalretailsales(excludingautomotivesector)includemorethanthesumofthesub-sectorsmonitoredbySpendingPulse.Note:

ThisisnotanexhaustivelistofSpendingPulse?sectors.Forinformationonthefulllistofsectors,pleasecontactaMastercardrepresentative.Mastercard

SpendingPulse?OnlinesalessharegrowthbypercentagepointsbysectorGermany:

H1

2023vs.H1

2022vs.H1

2019TotalApparel+7.1Electronics+13.8Furniture+15.2HomeJewelry+2.8retail*improvementsH1

2022vs.H1

2019+5.9-2.5+3.4+2.9-1.9+1.0H1

2023vs.H1

2022-8.0+6.3-6.1+7.7-8.2+7.0-9.0+1.9H1

2023vs.H1

2019*ExcludingautomotivesectorSource:

MastercardSpendingPulse.whichmeasuresin-storeandonlineretailsalesacrossallformsofpayment.-Note:

ThisisnotanexhaustivelistofSpendingPulse?sectors.Forinformationonthefulllistofsectors,pleasecontactaMastercardrepresentative.THREE

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GERMANY6TREND#2Overallgrowthinin-storespendingwas+3.9%

YoY.

Whiletherewasadeclineof11.7%YoY

inonlinespending,thatfigurereflectsthereturnofconsumerstobrick-and-mortarshopsaftertheendoftheCOVID-19

restrictionsandaresultingshiftawayfromthelevelsofonlinepurchasingseenduringthoserestrictions.Inhomeimprovement,forexample,thegapbetweenbrick-and-mortargrowthof+4.0%YoY

andonlinedeclineof29.2%

YoY

isespeciallystriking,underscoringthevitalroleofphysicalstorescounteractingthepresentdeclineinonlinerevenue.Incontrasttohomeimprovement,apparelandjewelrystoresdidnotrecordhigherin-storesalesnumbersastheydeclinedby

9.1%

YoY

and5.8%YoY,

respectively.Retailersinthesesectorsareparticularlyimpactedby

thecurrentconsumerrestraint.However,comparedtothefirsthalfof2019,

theshareofonlinesalesgrewsignificantlyinmostsectors,showingonlineshoppingbecameahabitformoreconsumersaftertheCOVID-19

restrictions.Comparedtothefirsthalfof2019,

onlineshareofthetotalretailsalesincreasedby

3.4percentagepointsandby

7.7percentagepointsforelectronicsinthefirsthalfof2023.MunichmapCitydeepdive:

Retail

spending

in

MunichMunich+18.6%footfallgrowthH1

2023vs.

H12022CitycenterNote:Absolutenumbernotavailable(Mastercarddataonly)DataforservicespotentiallyimpactedbyCOVID-19restrictionsbackin2022THREE

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GERMANY7TREND#2MunichretailgrowthratesTotal

retailConsumer

electronicsDomestic14%International27%Overall18%DomesticInternationalTotal

spend162%36%50%19%Average

ticket-5%-6%-7%Dept.

and

general

merchandiseGrocery

and

food

storesTotal

apparelDomestic5%International19%DomesticInternational26%DomesticInternationalTotal

spend25%17%0%33%4%Average

ticket-2%-6%-10%-14%Total

servicesBars/taverns/nightclubsEating

placesDomestic32%International72%DomesticInternational8%Domestic39%International79%Total

spend105%-17%Average

ticket-1%7%-14%-1%8%The

analysisis

based

on

the

selected

area

of

the

citycenter

inMunich,

Germany.The

“spend”

metric

refers

to

the

amount

of

transaction

(inEuros)

made

with

Mastercard

cards.The

number

of

transactions

was

indexed

to

the

anchor

period

and

common

base

area

to

adjust

for

the

price

increase.The

term

“domestic”

refers

to

transactions

made

in

an

area

with

cards

issued

in

Germany.The

term

“international”

refers

to

transactions

made

with

cards

issued

in

countries

other

than

Germany.Within-personshoppingcelebratingarevivalandconsumersflockingtothecitycentersagain,localretailersareeagertobenefitfromtheincreasedtrafficintheshoppingdistricts.Munich,Germany’sthirdlargestcitybypopulation,isoneexample.Retailersintheinnercityexperiencedanincreaseof18%YoY

intotalretailspendinthefirsthalfof2023.Zoominginoninternationalshoppersonly,

thegrowthrateisevenhigher,standingat27%YoY.

Furthermore,MastercardGeographicInsights?datashowsthatthevalueofeachtransactiondecreasedby

7%inthesameperiod,showingsomerestraintintheaveragepurchasevalue.However,

consumersincreasedtheiraverageticketsizeinthecategoriesofelectronicsandapparel.THREE

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GERMANY8TREND#2Retailerslooktoadd,expandservicesLookingbeyondretail,increasedtrafficinthecitysawconsumersreturningtorestaurantsandbars.Thegrowthof43%YoY

inservicesismainlydrivenby

spendincafés,barsandnightclubsby

localconsumers,furtheremphasizingtheelementsofexperienceandself-carewhenstrollingthroughthecity.Eventhoughthetotalspendinservicesincreasedsharply,consumersentimentisagainapparentastheaverageticketvalueremainedunchanged(+0%

YoY).

Forretailers,providingadditionalservices,be

itinfoodanddrinks,beautyorotherserviceareas,mayprovideopportunitiesforoverallgrowth,higherspendperconsumeraswellaslongerandmoreengagedstorevisits.ShiftingtheproductassortmentRetailersarealsomakingstrategicadjustmentsregardingtheproductassortmentitself.Forexample,ashifttoamoreupscaleorsustainableproductrangemayliftmargins,butoftentimesrequiresextensivestorerefurbishmenttomeetthehighstandardsofluxury

brands.Therefore,theupscalingmustbe

sufficienttocoverinvestmentcosts,whichiswhycarefulanalysisisessential.

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GGEERRMMAANNYY9TREND#3RethinkingstoresandcreatinganomnichannelexperienceRetailersinGermanyandaroundtheworldareinnovatingtheirbrick-and-mortarstrategiestowardsprofitability,customerengagementandotherobjectives.Thetimesofstaticstorelayoutswhichareleft

standingforyearshavepassed.Storeremodeling—andwiththat,data-drivenstoreoptimization—arebecomingacontinuoustaskforretailers.As

consumerrequirementsarechangingrapidly,storestrategiesneedtobe

adaptable,andthisflexibilitymustbe

reflectedintoday’sbusinesscasesandnvestmentdecisions.Whetherexistingstoresarebeingrefurbishedornewonesarebeingopened,rethinkingretailspacealsoincludesreconsideringhowcustomersmovearound,exploreandinteractinstores.Beingaccustomedtoaninterconnectedandfast-pacede-commerceexperienceenhancedby

theCOVID-19

pandemic,shoppersaretransferringtheirhighexpectationsfromtheonlineworldtophysicaloutlets.As

aresult,retailersarecreatingaseamlessshoppingintegrationbetweenallchannelswhilebuildingonthehumantouchpointembodiedby

thestaffandits

expertise.Indoingso,newtechnologiesbecomeakey

enablerforbothpersonnelandcustomersby

displayingfull-scaleproductandstockinformation,coordinatingomnichannelservicesandprovidingtailoredproductrecommendationsinstantlyandeffortlessly.At

Breuninger’s

newflagshipstoreinMunich,forinstance,thenumberofcustomerservicecounterswasheavilyincreasedtoproperlyaddressclick-and-collectcustomers,whotendtocompletetheirfashionlookswithadditionalitemsfromthestore.Furtherefforts

aremadein

personal

shopping

services,whichcouldbe

bookedonlineinmorethanadozenBreuningerstores.11.

“Traditionalbusiness

loses

its

name:

Konen

becomes

Breuninger,“AbendzeitungMünchen,

Nov.10,2022THREE

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GERMANY10USECASELeadingretailerusesMastercardTest

&LearntofocustheirremodelingplansAleadingretailerwith500

storeswas

remodelingstorestocatalyzesalesofits

newathleticapparelline.GoalincrementalimpactofaninitiativeanddeterminehowtotailorandtargetrollouttomaximizeROI.ResultBefore

investingtens

of

millionsofdollars,

the

retailer

wanted

toTheretailerwasabletotargettheirinvestmentstothestoresthatwouldrespondmostpositively,includingthoseinareaswherethedemographicsskewedyoungerandinmalls.TailoringandtargetingfutureremodelinvestmentsbasedonTest

&Learn’srecommendationsimprovedtheNPVoftheremodelsdoneinthefirstyearby

over$12

million.understand

the

incrementalimpact

of

Test

&Learnsoftwarematchedthethe

remodel

program,how

torefineremodeling

investments

to

improveretailer’salreadyremodeledstorestoacustomizedgroupofstoresreturnon

investment

(ROI)

and

which

thathaven‘tbeenremodeledyet.Itstorestoremodel

next

to

maximizenet

present

value(NPV).showedthatremodelinggenerateda4.9%

liftinin-storesales,butslightlycannibalizedonlinesales.Test

&Learnidentifiedopportunitiestorefinetheremodelingprogram,includingwhetherornottoinstalllightfixturesandwhichcategoriestoshrinktomakeroomforthenewline.StrategyEnterMastercar