世界油氣行業(yè)就業(yè)的未來

?TMFWOGI/2022

Thefutureofworkin

theoil

andgasindustryOpportunitiesandchallenges

fora

justtransitionto

afutureofworkthatcontributesto

sustainabledevelopmentTechnicalmeetingon

thefuture

ofworkinthe

oilandgasindustry(Geneva,

28

November–2December2022)SectoralPoliciesDepartmentGeneva,2022Copyright?InternationalLabourOrganization

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rightsorganizationinyourcountry.Thefutureof

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InternationalLabourOffice,SectoralPoliciesDepartment,Geneva,ILO,

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L’avenir

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Perspectives

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TMFWOGI/20223

ContentsPage5BackgroundChapter1.

Theoilandgasindustry

1.1.

Definitionandstructure

1.2.

Globaloilandgasreserves1.3.

Globaloilandgasproduction

1.4.

Oilandgasconsumption

1.5.

ContributiontoGDPandworldtrade

1.6.

GlobalemploymentChapter2.

Megatrendsanddriversofchange2.1.

Climatechange2.1.1.

Thecontributionoftheindustrytoclimatechange2.1.2.

Theenergytransition2.1.3.

Theproductiongap

persists2.1.4.

Rebalancingenergyinvestmentsforajusttransition2.2.

Technologicaladvances

2.2.1.

Roboticsandautomation

2.2.2.

Digitalization2.2.3.

Technologiesto

reduce

industryemissions2.2.4.

Thesearchfornewsourcesofproductsandenergy

2.3.

Demographics2.4.

Globalization

Chapter3.

Challenges

andopportunitiesfordecentandsustainablework

3.1.

Employment3.1.1.

Macroeconomicandgrowthpolicies

3.1.2.

Industrialandsectoralpolicies3.1.3.

Jobcreation,

transformationandlosses3.1.4.

Skillsneeds,mismatchesnowandinthefuture

3.1.5.

Otheractive

labourmarketpolicies

3.2.

Enterprises3.2.1.

Multinationalenterprises

3.2.2.

Smallandmedium-sized

enterprises

6710121315181919202124252727282931323335353536384144454549

TMFWOGI/20224Page513.3.

Conditionsofwork

3.3.1.

Wages3.3.2.

Organizationandhoursofwork

3.4.

Socialprotection5154543.5.

FundamentalPrinciplesandRightsatWorkandotherinternationallabourstandards

56563.5.1.

Freedomofassociationandtherightto

collectivebargaining3.5.2.Theeliminationofforced

orcompulsory

labourand

theabolitionofchildlabour583.5.3.Theeliminationofdiscriminationinrespectofemploymentandoccupation586063656566673.5.4.

OccupationalSafetyand

Health3.5.5.

Otherinternationallabourstandards

3.6.

Socialdialogueandlabourmarketinstitutions3.6.1.

Employerandbusinessmembershiporganizations3.6.2.

Workers’organizations3.6.3.

Labouradministrationandinspection

TMFWOGI/20225

BackgroundAt

its

341st

Session

(March

2021),

the

Governing

Body

of

the

ILO

decided

to

convene

a

technicalmeetingonthefutureofworkintheoil

andgasindustry.

1At

its

343rd

Session

(November

2021),

the

Governing

Body

in

turn

decided

that

the

technicalmeetingshouldtakeplaceinGenevafrom28Novemberto2December2022.

2In

the

context

of

the

ILO

Centenary

Declaration

for

the

Future

of

Work

(2019),3

the

meeting

willdiscuss

opportunities

and

challenges

for

a

just

transition

to

a

future

of

work

that

contributes

tosustainabledevelopmentinitseconomic,socialand

environmentaldimensions.Thisreporthasbeen

preparedby

theInternational

Labour

Officeasabasisfor

discussionsat

themeeting.

Chapter

1

contains

a

brief

overviewof

the

oil

andgas

industry

today

in

terms

of

its

structure;reservesand

production;consumption;international

tradeandcontributionto

grossdomesticproduct(GDP);

and

employment.

Chapter

2

sets

out

the

megatrends

and

drivers

of

change

that

will

transformthe

industry

in

the

future,

with

a

focus

on

climate

change,

technological

advances,

demographics

andglobalization.

Chapter

3

describes

the

decent

work

opportunities

and

challenges

that

the

industry

faceswithin

theframework

ofthefour

strategicobjectivesthatare

at

theheartof

the

DecentWork

Agenda,4and

with

special

attention

to

the

nine

key

policy

areas

of

the

ILO

Guidelines

for

a

just

transition

towardsenvironmentallysustainableeconomiesandsocieties

forall.

51

GB.341/POL/3(Rev.1).2

GB.343/POL/2(Rev.2).3

ILO,ILOCentenaryDeclaration

fortheFuture

of

Work,InternationalLabourConference,108thSession,2019.4

ILO,ILODeclarationon

SocialJusticeforaFairGlobalization

(2008)asamendedin2022.5

ILO,GuidelinesforaJustTransitionTowardsEnvironmentallySustainableEconomiesandSocietiesfor

All,2015.

TMFWOGI/20226

Chapter1.

Theoilandgasindustry1.While

the

earliest

known

oil

wells

were

drilled

in

China

in

the

year

347,

the

first

modern

oil

wellswere

created

in

the

1850s.

Since

then,

the

oil

and

gas

industry

has

provided

the

energy

to

catapultthe

industrial

revolution,

it

has

transformed

mobility,

transport,

electricity

provision,

heating,cooling,

and

cooking.

In

addition

to

powering

our

economies,

oil

and

gas

is

the

base

ingredientinthousandsofmanufacturedproductsthatbusinessesandconsumersuseeveryday.2.Theoil

andgasindustrymakesa

significantcontribution

to

theglobal

economy

andto

itsgrowthand

development

worldwide.

The

oil

industry

alone

accounts

for

almost

3

per

cent

of

globaldomestic

product.

The

trade

in

crude

oil

reached

US$640

billion

in

2020,

making

it

one

of

theworld’smosttradedcommodities.

63.4.The

industry

is

highly

capital-intensive.

Investments

in

oil

and

gas

supply

reached

more

thanUS$511

billion

in

2020.7

According

to

theInternational

Energy

Agency’s

(IEA)

recent

report,

WorldEnergyEmployment,oilandgas

supplyemployedcloseto11.9millionpeople

in2019.

8Being

the

world’s

most

valuable

commodities,

oiland

gas

have

greatlycontributed

to

the

wealthandpowerofgovernmentsandcorporationsthatareendowedwiththesenaturalresourcesandthatcontroltheir

productionand

distribution.Forthisreason,thedesireand

abilityto

controloiland

gas

have

played

a

significant

role

in

geopolitics,

wars

and

conflicts

across

the

globe,

andcontinuetodosotoday.5.6.In

recent

decades,

the

industry

has

come

under

additional

scrutiny

because

of

concerns

aboutthe

changing

climate.

According

to

the

Intergovernmental

Panel

on

Climate

Change

(IPCC),

in2019

approximately

34

per

cent

of

total

net

anthropogenic

greenhouse

gas

(GHG)

emissions

camefrom

the

energy

supply

sector.

9

During

a

speech

in

March

2022,

the

Secretary-General

of

theUnitedNations

(UN)warnedthatour“addictiontofossil

fuelsis

mutuallyassureddestruction”.

10As

highlighted

by

the

International

Petroleum

Industry

Environmental

Conservation

Association(IPIECA),

the

oil

and

gas

industry

will

need

to

align

its

business

strategies

with

the

nationalstrategiescalledfor

in

theParisAgreementto

significantly

reduceGHG

emissionsandto

supportthe

global

energy

transition.

According

to

the

IEA,

no

oil

and

gas

company

will

be

unaffected

bythe

transition

to

clean

energy,

and

every

segment

ofthe

industry

will

need

to

consider

the

natureoftheiroperationsandbusinessmodels.

117.Combined

with

concerns

about

working

conditions

and

violations

of

fundamental

principles

andrights

at

work

in

oil

and

gas

production

in

some

countries,

the

industry

is

faced

with

increasingpressure

to

address

the

significant

opportunities

and

challenges

for

a

just

transition

to

a

futureof

work

that

contributes

to

sustainable

development

in

its

economic,

social

and

environmentaldimensions.6

TheObservatoryofEconomicComplexity(OEC),“CrudePetroleum”.7

Intergovernmental

Panel

on

Climate

Change

(IPCC),

Climate

Change

2022:

Mitigation

of

Climate

Change.

Summary

forPolicymakers,2022.8

IEA,WorldEnergyEmployment,2022.9

AnilPandey,JamesThomasandAditya

Harneja,“How

the

Oil

andGasIndustrycanTurn

Climate-change

Ambitioninto

Action”,Strategy&,2021.10

UN,“Secretary-General’sRemarkstoEconomistSustainabilitySummit”,21March2022.11

IEA,The

OilandGasIndustryinEnergyTransitions:InsightsfromIEAAnalysis,2020.

TMFWOGI/202271.1.

Definitionandstructure8.For

the

purposes

of

this

report,

the

oil

and

gas

industry

is

defined

in

accordance

with

theInternationalStandardIndustrialClassificationofAllEconomicActivities(ISIC),Revision4.129.The

supply

chains

of

the

oil

and

gas

industry

span

the

globe

and

can

be

separated

into

threesegments(figure1):?

The

upstream

segment

of

the

oil

and

gas

industry

encompasses

activities

linked

toexploration,

including

thesearch

for

hydrocarbons,identification

of

high-potential

areas

for

oiland

gas

extraction,

test

drilling,

the

construction

of

wells,

and

initial

extraction.

Drilling

for

oiland

gas

are

typically

contracted

to

specialized

drilling

firms.

Drilling

facilities

can

either

beonshore,

frequently

in

the

form

of

oil

wells

that

are

grouped

together

in

a

field,

or

offshorefrom

single

platforms

that

hold

all

the

drilling

equipment,

storage

areas

and

housing

for

crews.Another

method

used

to

extract

oil

and

gas

is

hydraulic

fracturing,

which

is

used

to

extracthydrocarbons

from

inaccessible

parts

of

existing

wells

or

coalbed

wells,

tight

sand

formationsandshaleformations.

13?

The

midstream

segment

of

the

industry

refers

to

the

transportation

and

storage

of

oil

andgas.

This

includes

the

operation

of

pipelines

and

other

modes

of

transportation

to

move

oil

andgas

long

distances,

such

as

tank

trucks,

rail

tank

cars,

barges

and

oil

and

liquefied

natural

gas(LNG)

tankers.

Another

important

midstream

activity

is

the

storage

of

oil

and

natural

gas,largelyforthepurposesofsofteningsupplyanddemandshocks.?

Companies

in

the

downstream

segment

refine

crude

oil

and

natural

gas

into

thousands

offinished

products,

including

petrol,

diesel,

kerosene,

jet

fuels,

heating

oils

and

asphalt

forbuildingroads.

Long-chain

hydrocarbonsarealsofound

inproductssuch

asfertilizers,

rubber,plastics,

chemicals,

pharmaceuticals,

paints

and

fabrics.

The

downstream

segment

also

coversthe

marketing

and

distribution

of

refined

petroleum

products

to

business,

industry,government,andpublicconsumers.

Figure1.

Theoilandgassupplychainil

eldTrans

ortationde

elo

menteolo

icalsur

eysrilline

arationom

ressionehydrationPrimary

se

arationy

distillationecondaryand

ri

htseelo

mentofinfrastructurePi

elines

a

o

enshore

o

shoredrillinround,

elow

round,con

ersionon

thesea

edrac

ineaoadlorationProductione

ninstreamidstreamownstreamSource:AdaptedfromLibraryof

Congress,“Oiland

GasIndustry:AResearchGuide”.12

UN,InternationalStandardIndustrialClassificationof

AllEconomicActivities

(ISIC),Rev.4,2008.13

Libraryof

Congress,“OilandGasIndustry:AResearchGuide”.

TMFWOGI/2022810.

The

oil

and

gas

industry

is

dominated

by

a

limited

number

of

large

multinational

enterprises(MNEs),

both

private,

public

and

state-owned.

In

2019,

petroleum

and

energy

companiesaccounted

for

seven

of

the

top

ten

Fortune

Global

companies,

and

in

2022

the

trailing

12

monthrevenues

(TTM)

of

the

tenbiggest

oil

companies

ranged

from

US$111.5

billion

to

US$1.3trillion.14These

MNEs

coexist

with

prospectors,

drillers,

exploration

juniors

and

small

producers,

and

withnumeroussmall

andmedium-sized

enterprises(SMEs)intheir

supply

chains,both

globally

andinlocalcommunities.11.

Oil

and

gas

companies

can

be

generally

divided

in

two

categories,

international

oil

companies(IOCs)andnationaloilcompanies(NOCs):15?

IOCs:

The

se

en

“

ajors”

–

that

is,

BP,

Chevron,

ExxonMobil,

Shell,

Total,

ConocoPhillips

and

Eni–

are

examples

of

integrated

IOCs

that

are

involved

in

each

segment

of

the

oil

and

gas

supplychain

and

have

a

market

capitalization

of

US$10

billion

or

more.

IOCs

also

include

the

smallerrou

of

“Inde

endents”,

who

focus

on

frontier

areas

or

assets

of

less

interest

to

the

ajors,and

who

operate

across

the

supply

chain

or

in

a

specific

segment

of

it.

Examples

include

Repsol,Marathon,

Apache,

Hess

or

Mitsubishi

Corp.

In

addition

to

the

fully

or

partially

integrated

IOCs,the

oil

and

gas

industry

also

includes

companies

that

either

specialize

in

a

segment

of

thesupply

chain,

such

as

pure

downstream

companies

(for

example,

Marathon

Petroleum

andPhillips66),

service

companies

(for

example,

Schlumberger

and

Baker

Hughes)

and

tradingcompanies(forexample,

GlencoreandVitol).?

NOCs:

Since

Mexico

nationalized

its

oil

production

in

1938,

countries

have

been

creating

privatestate-owned

companies

or

purchasing

significant

shares

in

publicly

traded

oil

companies.

Therise

of

oil

nationalization

was

not

only

a

response

to

historical

exploitation

by

IOCs,

but

also

apolitical

strategy

to

control

access

to

national

oil

andgas

reserves.

16

Examples

of

NOCs

includeSaudi

Aramco,

National

Iranian

Oil

Company,

Basra

Oil

Company,

Qatar

Petroleum,

Rosneft,Uzbekneftegaz,SOCAR,KazMunayGaz,Petrobras,PEMEX,PetróleosdeVenezuela,SA

(PDVSA),NigeriaNational

Petroleum

Corporation(NNPC),

Sonatrach,

and

Sonangol.International

NOCs–

also

called

INOCs

–

are

NOCs

that

have

large

upstream

investments,

usually

in

partnershipwith

large

private

companies

or

national

oil

companies

of

other

countries.

They

includeEquinor,

the

China

National

Petroleum

Corporation

(CNPC),

Gazprom,

Sinopec,

the

ChinaNational

Offshore

Oil

Corporation

(CNOOC),

Petronas,

India’s

Oil

and

Natural

Gas

Corporation(ONGC)andThailand’sPTTEP.12.

All

of

these

types

of

company

play

a

key

role

in

oil

and

gas

production,

as

shown

in

the

breakdownoftheirownershipofreserves,productionandinvestmentinfigure2.14

NathanReiff,“10BiggestOilCompanies”,Investopedia,5August2022.15

IEA,The

OilandGasIndustryinEnergyTransitions.16

GavinBridge

andPhilippeLeBillon,Oil,2nded.,(Cambridge,UK:PolityPress,2017),47–49.

TMFWOGI/20229

Figure2.

Ownershipof

oilandgasprovenandprobablereserves,productionandupstreaminvestmentbycompanytype,2018

(percentage)100%80%60%40%20%0%ReservesProductionOilInvestmentReservesProductionGasInvestmentNOCsIndependentsINOCsMajorsSource:

IEA,

“Share

of

Oil

Reserves,

Oil

Production

and

Oil

Upstream

Investment

by

Company

Type”,

2018;

“Shares

of

Gas

Reserves,GasProductionandGas

UpstreamInvestmentbyCompanyType”,2018.13.

The

creationof

the

Organization

of

the

Petroleum

Exporting

Countries

(OPEC)

is

closelylinked

tothe

nationalization

of

oil

production.

With

a

membership

of

13

countries,

OPEC

aims

to

harmonizepetroleum

policies,

stabilize

oil

markets

for

the

benefit

of

consumers,

producers

and

investors,andallow

for

countriestohavesovereignty

over

their

natural

resources.

17

Similar

to

OPEC,

somecountries

have

come

together

to

form

the

Gas

Exporting

Countries

Forum

(GECF).

However,

unlikeOPEC,

which

has

been

criticized

for

its

monopolistic

power,

the

GECF

does

not

have

mandate

tocontrolproductionorprices.

1817

The

13

member

countries

are

Algeria,

Angola,

Congo,

Equatorial

Guinea,

Gabon,

Islamic

Republic

of

Iran,

Iraq,

Kuwait,

Libya,Nigeria,SaudiArabia,UnitedArabEmiratesandtheBolivarianRepublicofVenezuela.18

Libraryof

Congress,“OilandGasIndustry:AResearchGuide”.

TMFWOGI/2022101.2.

Globaloilandgasreserves14.

Oil

andgasare

finiteresources.Whiletheexactamountofoilor

gasavailablefor

extraction

frombelowtheearth’ssurfaceis

unclear,dataaboutprovenreservesis

available(figure3).

19

Figure3.

Totalprovenreserves

of

oil

byregion

(inbillionsofbarrels)2021200018003%7%16001400120010008003%8%3%7%48%47%54%8%1%9%1%6004009%2%7%19%20%20018%13%14%0200020102020NorthAmericaSouthernandCentralAmericaEuropeCISMiddleEastAfricaAsiaPacificSource:

BP,StatisticalReviewof

WorldEnergy2021,70thed.,2021.15.

Figure

3

shows

that

global

proven

reserves

of

oil

have

increased

by

33

per

cent

from

2000

to

2020.This

is

largely

driven

by

new

exploration

and

drilling

activities,

which

tend

to

pick

up

when

oilpricesrise,butalsobychangesin

extractionregulationsandtechnology,suchasfracking.16.

The

country

with

the

largest

increase

in

proven

oil

reserves

was

the

Bolivarian

Republic

ofVenezuela,

from

76.8

billion

barrels

at

the

end

of

2000

to303.8

billion

barrels

at

the

end

of2020.19

According

to

the

Society

of

Petroleum

Engineers

(SPE),

proven

reserves

can

be

defined

as

“those

quantities

of

etroleumanticipated

to

be

commercially

recoverable

by

application

of

development

projects

to

known

accumulations

from

a

given

dateforward

under

defined

conditions”.

A

reser

e

is

enerally

considereda

“proven”

reserve

if

its

viability

or

probability

of

profitableextractionisequaltoorover90percent.20

In

this

figure

as

well

as

the

following

figures,

the

CIS

region

refers

to

the

Commonwealth

of

Independent

States

and

includes12

countries:

Armenia,

Azerbaijan,

Belarus,

Georgia,

Kazakhstan,

Kyrgyzstan,

Republic

of

Moldova,

Russian

Federation,

Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,UkraineandUzbekistan.21

According

to

the

source

this

data

includes

crude

oil,

shale

oil,

oil

sands,

condensates

(lease

condensate

or

gas

condensatesthatrequire

further

refining)

and

NGLs

(natural

gas

liquids

–

ethane,

liquefied

petroleum

gas

(LPG)

and

naphtha

separated

from

theproduction

of

natural

gas).

It

excludes

liquid

fuels

from

other

sources

such

as

biofuels

and

synthetic

derivatives

of

coal

and

naturalgas.

This

also

excludes

liquid

fuel

adjustment

factors

such

as

refinery

processing

gain.

It

also

excludes

oil

shales/kerogenextractedinsolidform.Thisisapplicabletoalloilrelateddatafromthissourceinthischapter.

TMFWOGI/202211At

the

time,

the

region

with

the

largest

share

of

proven

oil

reserves

was

the

Middle

East,accountingfor48.3

percentoftheglobalshare.Over70percentofglobalprovenreserveswereinOPECmembercountries.17.

Similar

to

proven

oil

reserves,

figure

4

shows

that

proven

gas

reserves

have

increased

between2000

and

2020,

by

approximately

36

per

cent.

At

the

end

of

2020,

the

region

with

the

largest

shareofprovengasreserveswastheMiddleEast,accountingfor40.3percentoftheglobalshare.

Figure4.

Totalprovenreserves

of

gasbyregion

(intrillions

of

cubicmetres)22200180160140120100809%7%8%8%7%9%40%30%43%29%42%28%60402%4%203%5%6%4%5%5%8%0200020102020NorthAmericaSouthern

and

Central

AmericaEuropeCISMiddle

EastAfricaAsia

PacificSource:

BP,StatisticalReviewof

WorldEnergy2021.18.

The

IEA

estimates

that

unabated

combustion

of

the

proven

reserves

of

coal,

oil

and

natural

gaswould

result

inthree

times

more

carbon

dioxide

(CO

)

emissions

than

the

world’s

remaining

CO22budget.23

24

Even

if

unabated

coal

power

is

phased

down,

as

the

Parties

to

the

Glasgow

ClimatePact

have

agreed

to

do,

large

volumes

of

oil

and

gas

would

need

to

be

kept

in

the

ground

torestrict

global

warming

in

line

with

the

Paris

Agreement.

It

has

been

calculated

that

there

arecurrently

US$1.4

trillion

in

potentially

stranded

assets.

25

The

Secretary-General

of

the

UN

hasreferredtosuchin

estmentsinfossilfuelsinfrastructureas“moralandeconomicmadness”.

2622

According

to

the

source

this

data

excludes

natural

gas

converted

to

liquid

fuels

but

includes

derivatives

of

coal

as

well

as

naturalgasconsumedingas-to-liquidstransformation.Thisisapplicabletoallgasrelateddatafromthissourceinthischapter.23

Acarbon

budgetis

definedas

“thema

imumamountof

cumulati

enet

lo

al

anthro

o

enicemissionsthatwouldresult2inlimitingglobalwarmingtoa

given

levelwitha

givenprobability,takinginto

accountthe

effectofother

anthropogenicclimateforcers”.24

IEA,The

OilandGasIndustryinEnergyTransitions.25

Gregor

emieniu

et

al.,

“Stranded

Fossil-fuel

Assets

Translate

to

Major

Losses

for

Investors

in

Advanced

Economies”,

NatureClimateChange,12,(2022):532–538.26

N,

“Secretary-General

Warns

of

Climate

Emergency,

Calling

Intergovernmental

Panel’s

Report

‘A

File

of

Shame’,

while

SayingLeaders‘AreLying’,FuellingFlames”,

PressRelease,4April2022.

TMFWOGI/2022121.3.

Globaloilandgasproduction19.

Between

2009

and

2019,

the

annual

global

growth

rate

of