拉美鋰礦及工業(yè)化-Lithium extraction and industrialization Opportunities and challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean

Lithiumextractionandindustrialization

OpportunitiesandchallengesforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

UNTEDNATIONS

aproductive,inclusive

andsustainablefuture

W。rkgfr

June2023

Introduction1

.Lithiumisoneofthekeyelementsintheenergytransition.Untilnowithasbeenanessentialinputintheproductionoflithium-ionbatteries—akeytechnologyforthedecarbonizationoftransportandthestorageofenergygeneratedfromrenewablesources.Lithiumisalsoconsideredastrategicresourcebycountriesthathaveabundantlithiumdeposits.InLatinAmerica,Argentina,ChileandthePlurinationalStateofBoliviastandoutfortheirdeposits,formingthe“l(fā)ithiumtriangle”,whileBrazil,MexicoandPeru,withsmallerdeposits,alsohavethepotentialtoproducesignificantamounts.

.Thestrategicnatureoflithiumstemsfromitspotentialtocontributetothecountries’economicdevelopment.Thisresourcecanhaveapositiveimpactbasedonnewvaluecreation,intheformofincreasedoutput,exports,employmentandtaxrevenues.However,variousactorsintheaforementionedcountrieshaveconsideredthatitsgreatestpotentialliesinopportunitiestodevelopproductiveandtechnologicalcapacitiesassociatedwithlithium,thuscontributingtotheprocessofstructuralchangeinresource-richeconomies.Fromtheperspectiveofgovernments,thisrequirespoliciesandregulationsthatareconducivetothecreationofpublicgoods,thedevelopmentofsoftandhardcapacitiesandinfrastructures,andthemobilizationandsteeringofthenecessaryresources.

1Thecut-offdatefortheinformationusedtopreparethisreportis20April2023,unlessotherwiseindicated.

Contents

Introduction 1

I.Theglobalmarketforlithiumbatteries

isexpandingrapidly 2

II.LatinAmericaisamajorglobalplayer

inthelithiumsector,withahighdegree

ofspecializationintheextraction

oftheresourceandtheproduction

oflithiumcompounds 13

III.Governancemodels 25

IV.Concludingremarks:guidelinesfor

aproductivedevelopmentagenda

aroundlithium 38

Bibliography 39

Annex1

42

Annex2

44

1

EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC)

Thisraisestheneedforaproductivedevelopmentagenda2centredonlithium,topromoteitsextractionforuseineconomicactivitiesthatareeitherdirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtoit.

.Nonetheless,theseopportunitiesalsoposechallengesforthelithiumminingactivityitself,owingtotherisksinvolvedindemandprojectionsandthelaunchofprojectsforitssupply,andpotentialsubstitutesforthemineralorthetechnologiesthatuseitintheircomponents.Theyalsoraiseproblemsforindustrialactivity,becauseofgapsincapacitiesforexplorationand(upstream)productionor(downstream)consumptiontointegrateintolithiumvaluechains.Governmentsalsofacechallengesrelatedtothescopeforimprovement,bothinthecaptureofeconomicrentsfrommineralexploitationandinthedistributionanduseofthesefiniterentsforinvestmentinotherformsofcapital.Aboveall,however,theyfacechallengesinthesupervision,monitoringandcontrolofextractiveactivities,owingtotheirpotentialimpactsontheenvironmentandcommunities.Asisthecasewithanyextractiveactivity,lithiumminingalsoexertsenvironmentalandsocialpressureontheterritoriesofextraction,affectingthesustainabilityoftheecosystemsthatexistthere.Inthecaseoflithiumbrine,thisismanifestedmainlyintermsofwaterstressandtheeffectsonbiodiversityandtraditionaleconomicactivitiescarriedoutbysocialgroupslivingnearthesaltflats.

.Thisreportprovidesasyntheticanalysisofsomeofthekeydimensionsinvolvedinanalysingtheopportunitiesandchallengesposedfortheregion’slithium-richcountries.ChapterI,whichfollowsthisintroduction,analysesthedynamicsoftheelectromobilityandlithium-ionbatteryindustries.Itdescribessomeoftheinitiativesadoptedbycountries,inwhichlithiumhasbecomeacriticalinput;anditshowshowresource-richcountriesintheregionhaverespondedbydeclaringlithiumastrategicresource.ChapterIIanalysestheroleoflithium-richLatinAmericanandCaribbeancountriesinthelithium-ionbatteryvaluechain.ChapterIIIexaminesseveralkeydimensionsofthelithiumgovernanceregimesinArgentina,ChileandthePlurinationalStateofBolivia:thelegalregimesthatregulatelithium-relatedactivity,thepublicagendasorpoliciesforproductivedevelopmenttopromotevalue-added,theregulationsaimedatpromotingenvironmentalandsocialsustainability,andthetaxsystemsapplicabletominingactivity.Lastly,chapterIVsetsforthpublicpolicyguidelinestocontributetostructuralchangebasedontheindustrializationofstrategicminerals(fortheenergytransitionandelectromobility),takingtheanalysisoflithiumintoaccount.

I.Theglobalmarketforlithiumbatteriesisexpandingrapidly

A.Energytransitionandclimatechangecommitments

.Theexponentialgrowthintheglobaldemandforlithiumisexplainedmainlybythetransformationstriggeredbytheenergytransitionthatiscurrentlyunfoldingacrosstheworld.Thecommitmentsundertakentolimitglobalwarmingincludesubstantiallyreducingtheuseoffossilfuels,expandingelectrification,improvingenergyefficiencyandusingalternativefuels(IPCC,2022).

.Aspartofthisprocess,theelectrificationoftransportation,incombinationwithincreaseduseoflow-emissionenergysources,impliesatransitiontoamineral-intensiveparadigm(IEA,2021).Manyofthemineralsconcerned,includinglithium,copper,nickel,cobaltandrareearths,havebecomecriticallyimportant(IEA,2021).FigureI.1comparesthemineraldemandforvarioustraditionaltechnologiesandforsomeofthoseintroducedaspartofthedecarbonizationprocess.Forexample,anelectricautomobileneedssixtimesmoremineralsthanaconventionalcar,whileanoffshorewindplantneedsninetimesmoremineralsthanagas-firedplantofthesamecapacity.

Furthermore,notonlyalargerquantitybutalsoawiderdiversityofmineralsisrequired.

2Theproductivedevelopmentagenda,alsocalled“industrialpolicy”,referstopublic-sectorsupportforproductivedevelopment,inotherwordsthedimensionofeconomicdevelopmentthatfocusesontheprocessofexpandingproduction-relatedcapabilities(Correa,DiniandLetelier,2022).TheEconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC)proposesthatthisagendaorpolicyshouldseekastructural,sustainableandinclusivetransformation.

2

Lithiumextractionandindustrialization:opportunitiesandchallengesforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

FigureI.1Quantityofmineralsusedinselectedclean-energytechnologies

A.Transport

(Kg/vehicle)

Conventionalvehicle

Electricvehicle

050100150200250

Copper

Lithium

Nickel

Manganese

Cobalt

Graphite

Rareearths

Zinc

Other

B.Electricpowergeneration

(Thousandkg/MWh)

Naturalgas

Coal

Nuclear

SolarphotovoltaicOnshorewind

Offshorewind

024681012141618

Copper

Nickel

Cobalt

Manganese

Chromium

Molybdenum

Zinc

Rareearths

Silica

Other

Source:EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC),onthebasisofInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions,Paris,2021.

.TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)envisagestotalglobaldemandformineralspotentiallydoublinginthestatedpolicyscenario(STEPS)andevenquadruplinginthesustainabledevelopmentscenario(SDS)between2020and2040(seefigureI.2).3Thisprojectionseeslithiumasthemetalwiththestrongestgrowthindemand,withincreasesof13andupto42times,

dependingonthescenario.4

3Thestatedpolicyscenario(STEPS)indicatesthefuturecourseoftheenergysystem,basedonasector-by-sectoranalysisofcurrentpoliciesandpolicyannouncements.Thesustainabledevelopmentscenario(SDS)indicateswhatwouldberequiredonapathconsistentwithmeetingtheGoalsoftheParisAgreement.

4Nonetheless,therelativeincreaseindemandforlithiumisduelargelytoamuchsmallerbasisofcomparisonthanforotherminerals,becausethecurrentsizeofitsmarketissmaller.Lithiumdemandin2020wasroughly300,000tonsoflithiumcarbonateequivalent(LCE)),whereasthedemandforrefinedcopperwas75timesgreaterat22,550,000tons,accordingtotheUnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey(USGS).

3

EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC)

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

FigureI.2Relativegrowthofdemandforselectedmineralsusedincleanenergy,projectionsto2040

(Multiplesofestimated2020demand)

42

25

21

19

13

88

667

332.92.7

2.3

21.71.8

Statedpolicy

scenario

Sustainable

development

scenario

Statedpolicy

scenario

Sustainable

development

scenario

Graphite

Statedpolicy

scenario

Sustainable

development

scenario

Cobalt

Statedpolicy

scenario

Sustainable

development

scenario

Nickel

Statedpolicy

scenario

Sustainable

development

scenario

Statedpolicy

scenario

Sustainable

development

scenario

Statedpolicy

scenario

Sustainable

development

scenario

Molybdenum

Statedpolicy

scenario

Sustainable

development

scenario

Copper

Statedpolicy

scenario

Sustainable

development

scenario

Lithium

Manganese

Rareearthelements

Silica

Materialsforbatteries

Materialsfornetworksandrenewableenergies

Source:EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC),onthebasisofInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions,Paris,2021.

BoxI.1Thecurrentenergysituationcouldhastenthetransitionprocess

.TheconflictbetweentheRussianFederationandUkrainehasdisruptedglobalgeopoliticsandtradeflows,resultinginaconsiderableincreaseininternationalfossilfuelprices.Thishasbeenpassedontotheenergysectors,otherproductivesectorsandconsumers,affectinghouseholds,firms,industriesandentireeconomies.AlthoughtheconflictanditsimpactonenergypricesaremoredirectandseriousontheEuropeancontinent,wheremostcountriesimportfuelsfromtheRussianFederation,ithasalsoaffectedtherestoftheworldand,inparticular,developingcountries,whichareunabletorespondwiththeirownresources.SomeoftheimmediateshortfallsinfuelimportsfromtheRussianFederation,particularlynaturalgas,needtobefilledbyproductionfromelsewhere;andnewliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)infrastructurewillbeneededtofacilitatethediversificationofsupply,drawingonothermarketsoutsidetheRussianFederation.Whileoilandgasinvestmentincreasedby10%relativeto2021,itremainswellbelow2019levels.Highfossilfuelpricescauseproblemsformanyeconomies,butalsoproduceunprecedentedwindfallprofitsforoilandgasproducers.IncomeintheglobaloilandgassectorisexpectedtorisetoUS$4trillionby2022,morethandoublethefive-yearaverage,withmostoftheserevenuesgoingtomajoroil-andgas-exportingcountries(IEA,2022a).

.TheExecutiveDirectoroftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)hasarguedthattheenergycrisisandtheclimatecrisisarenotmutuallyconflicting;butthereiscurrentlyanopportunitytoaddressbothproblemsatonce.InJuly2022,henotedthata“massivesurgeininvestmenttoacceleratecleanenergytransitionsistheonlylastingsolution.Thiskindofinvestmentisrising,butweneedamuchfasterincreasetoeasethepressureonconsumersfromhighfossilfuelprices,makeourenergysystemsmoresecureandgettheworldontracktoreachourclimategoals”.

.Ingeneral,theconflictslowsdownglobalizationascurrentlyconceived,byaccentuatingthetrendstowardsregionalizationandtherelocationofproductionchainsandtradethatwerealreadyoccurringwiththetradedisputebetweentheUnitedStatesandEurope,ontheonehand,andChina,ontheother(ECLAC,2022).Inthisfragmentedscenario,geopoliticalconsiderationswilllikelygaingreaterweightineconomicpolicydecisionsinthenearfuture.Regionalintegrationwillbecomemoreimportantandvariouseffortswillbemadetosecuresupplychains,mainlybetweenalliedcountries(anumberofexamplesrelatedtolithiumarediscussedinsectionI.E).

Source:EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC),RepercussionsinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanofthewarinUkraine:howshouldtheregionfacethisnewcrisis?,Santiago,6June2022[online]

/bitstream/handle/11362/47913/

S2200418_en.pdf.;InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),WorldInvestmentEnergy2022,Paris,2022;J.Myers,“Thisisthetechnologydrivingtheworld’srenewablesrevolution”,Geneva,WorldEconomicForum(WEF),12July[online]

/agenda/2022/07/renewable

-energy-technology-iea-investment/.

4

Lithiumextractionandindustrialization:opportunitiesandchallengesforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

B.Investmentincleanenergyandthegrowthofelectromobility

andlithium-ionbatteries

Onthesupplyside,thespreadofelectromobilityhasfuelledasubstantialincreaseininvestmentintheautomotiveandlithium-ionbatteryproductionindustries.Onthedemandside,electricvehiclepenetrationratesareincreasinginthehigher-incomeeconomies,supportedbyspecificregulationsandtaxbenefits.ThisprocessisatanincipientstageinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,whereelectricvehiclepenetrationisincreasing,albeitatverylowlevels.

Theenergytransitionrequiresahighlevelofinvestment.InthefiveyearsfollowingthesigningoftheParisAgreementin2015,cleanenergyinvestmentgrewbyanaverageofjustover2%peryear;butsince2020,theratehasrisento12%.Nonetheless,itisstillbelowwhatisneededtomeetinternationalclimatetargets(IEA,2022a).In2021,thehighestlevelsofcleanenergyinvestmentwererecordedinChina(US$380billion),followedbytheEuropeanUnion(US$260billion)andtheUnitedStates(US$215billion).InvestmentinelectricvehiclesamountedtoUS$93billion,representing6.5%oftotalinvestment(seefigureI.3).

FigureI.3Globalinvestmentincleanenergy,2017–2022

(Billionsofdollars)

1500

1000

500

0

1440

1077

1107

1308

11431148

201720182019202020212022a

Electricvehicles

Lowemissionfuels

andcarboncapture

Storageand

networks

Energyef?ciency

andother

Nuclear

Renewableenergies

Source:EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC),onthebasisofInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),WorldInvestmentEnergy2022,Paris,2022.

aThefiguresfor2022areestimates.

.In2021,electricvehiclesalesweremorethandoublethepreviousyear’stotal,andtheirstronggrowthcontinuedin2022.Electricvehiclepenetrationintheautomotivemarketincreasedby650%between2014and2019(seefigureI.4)andisestimatedtoaccountfor4.6%oftotalvehiclesalesin2020and9%in2021,nearlyquadruplingthe2019figure(IEA,2022b).Therobustgrowthofelectromobilityexplainstheexpansionofdemandforlithium-ionbatteriesoverthepastfewyears,whichisforecasttoremainaround25%peryearuntil2030(WorldEconomicForum,2019).Thisrateofgrowthraisesquestionsabouttheabilityofautomakerstokeeppacewithproductionanddeliveries.Themainconstraintsstemfromtherawmaterialsupplychainandtheglobalshortageofsemiconductors.

5

EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC)

FigureI.4Electricvehiclepenetrationrate,2014–2021

(Percentagesoftotalvehiclesales)

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

9.0

4.6

2.6

2.2

0.9

1.4

0.4

0.6

20142015201620172018201920202021

Source:EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC),onthebasisofM.ObayaandM.Céspedes,“Análisisdelasredesglobalesdeproduccióndebateríasdeiondelitio:implicacionesparalospaísesdeltriángulodellitio”,ProjectDocuments(LC/TS.2021/58),Santiago,EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC),2021;InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),GlobalEVOutlook2022,Paris,2022;andMcKinsey&Companydata.

Note:The2020and2021lightpassengerelectricvehiclepenetrationratesareestimatesprovidedbytheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA,2022b).

.Aspartofeffortstocombatclimatechangeworldwide,anincreasingnumberofgovernmentshaveintroducedincentivesfortheproductionandconsumptionofelectricvehicles,whichhavecontributedtotheadoptionofthisformofmobility(IEA,2020;LaRocca,2020).Publicexpenditureonsubsidiesandincentivesforelectricvehiclesnearlydoubledin2021toaroundUS$30billion.Moreover,agrowingnumberofcountrieshavecommittedtophasingoutinternalcombustionenginesinthecomingdecadesandhavesetambitiousvehicleelectrificationtargets.5IntheframeworkoftheCleanEnergyMinisterialForum,16countries,includingChile,createdtheElectricVehicleInitiative,amulti-governmentalpolicyforumdedicatedtospeedinguptheintroductionandadoptionofelectricvehiclesworldwide.Inaddition,manymanufacturershavealreadyrespondedtothesecommitmentsandincentivesbyannouncingdecisionstoelectrifytheirvehiclefleets.6

.Intheregion,Brazilhasthelargestmarket,followedbyMexicoandColombia.ForecastsindicatestronggrowthincountriessuchasColombia,CostaRicaandUruguay(seefigureI.5).However,averagepenetrationratesintheregionremainbelow1%.7

6

5

6

7

In2021,thetwenty-sixthsessionoftheConferenceofthePartiestotheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(COP26)setanunofficialtargetforallnewcarssoldgloballytobezero-emissionvehiclesby2040.Foralistofelectricvehiclefleetcommitmentsbycountry,seeIEA(2022c).Norwayhasmadeacommitment(unofficialtarget)that100%ofnewlight-dutypassengervehiclessoldshouldbezero-emissionvehiclesby2025.InFebruary2023,theEuropeanUnionpassedalawbanningthesaleofnewgasolineanddieselcarsasfrom2035.

Forexample,Mercedes-Benzannouncedthatallnewvehicleslaunchedwillbefullyelectricasfrom2025;andVolvomadeacommitmenttobecomeanall-electriccarmanufacturerby2030.Meanwhile,inChina,DongfengMotorCorporationplanstoelectrify100%ofitsnewmodelsofmajorpassengercarbrandsby2024,andBYDannouncedthatitwouldonlyproduceelectricvehiclesasfromApril2022(IEA,2022b).

Therehavealsobeencommitmentsintheregiononelectricvehiclefleets.Chile,theDominicanRepublic,ElSalvador,MexicoandParaguayaresignatoriestotheunofficialtargetofthetwenty-sixthsessionoftheConferenceofthePartiestotheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(COP26)thatallnewcarsaleswillbezeroemissionvehiclesby2040.OutsideofthisunofficialCOP26target,Brazil,Chile,CostaRica,Ecuador,PanamaandUruguayhavesetdifferentcommitments(mostlyunofficialtargets)forelectricvehiclesalesandfleetsforspecificyears(seeIEA(2022c)foracompletelist).

Lithiumextractionandindustrialization:opportunitiesandchallengesforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

4

3

2

1

0

Windgeneration

FigureI.5LatinAmericanelectricvehiclemarket,2021

(Thousandsofunitsandpercentages)

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Brazil

Mexico

Colombia

CostaRica

Chile

Uruguay

Dominican

Rep.

Ecuador

Peru

Panama

Argentina

Electricvehiclesales

(leftaxis)

◆Shareoftotalsales

(rightaxis)

1257512058236222512593927859

MediumMediumStrongStrongMediumStrongMediumWeakWeakWeakWeak

Source:EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC),onthebasisofBloombergNEF.

Growthrate

2020/2021

Forecast

penetration2025

C.Thegeographyofmineralresources

.Thelocationofboththereservesandtheproductionofmanymineralsthatarecriticaltotheenergytransitionisgeographicallymoreconcentratedthaninthecaseoffossilfuels(seediagramI

.1).

Forexample,inthecaseoflithium,whichisessentialfortheproductionoflithium-ionbatteries,thethreeleadingproducercountriesaccountformorethanthreequartersofglobalproduction.In

thecaseofotherminerals,suchascobalt,asinglecountryproducesabouthalfoftheworldtotal.

DiagramI.1Countrysharesinselectednaturalresourcevaluechainactivities

FossilfuelsExplorationandproductiontraritingDemand

OilUnitedSaudiRussianFed.UnitedChinaRusiaFed.UnitedChinaIndia

StatesArabiaStatesStates

NaturalgasUnitedRussianFed.IranRussianFed.QatarAustraliaUnitedRussianFed.China

StatesStates

CleantechnologiesExploitationProcessingBatterymaterialsCells/PacksElectricvehicles

Copper

Lithium

Nickel

Cobalt

Rareearths

ChilePeruChinaChile

AustraliaChileChinaChile

IndonesiaPhilippinesChinaIndonesia

China

China

DemocraticRep.

oftheCongo

China

Rep.ofKorea

Japan

UnitedStates

Rep.ofKorea

China

China

China

UnitedStates

European

Union

Polysilicon

Solarpanels

Solargeneration

Rep.ofKorea

Rep.ofKorea

China

Canada

China

EuropeanUnion

UnitedStates

AlemaniaChina

Windgereration

ChinaIndiaUnitedSpainGermanyChinaEuropeanUnited

States

UnionStates

Source:EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC),onthebasisofInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions,Paris,2021.

7

EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC)

.Therearealsohighlevelsofconcentrationinthemineralprocessingandrefiningchain,inwhichChinaisadominantplayer.Inrefiningactivities,Chinaaccountsforapproximately35%inthecaseofnickel,between50%and70%inthecasesoflithiumandcobalt,andnearly90%inthecaseofrareearths(seefigureI.6).ChinesefirmshavealsoinvestedheavilyinassetslocatedincountriessuchasArgentina,Australia,Chile,theDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo,IndonesiaandMexico,enablingthemtoachieveahighdegreeofverticalintegration.

FigureI.6

(Percentages)

Shareofprocessing,selectedminerals,2019

Copper

Lithium

Nickel

Cobalt

Rareearthelements

0102030405060708090100

Argentina

Chile

China

Indonesia

Belgium

Finland

Japan

Malaysia

Restoftheworld

Source:EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC),onthebasisofInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions,Paris,2021.

Note:Thedatashownforcopperrefertorefiningcapacity.

D.Thepriceoflithiumcontinuestorisesteadilyinthewake

oftheenergytransition

.Thepricesofmanyminerals(bothmetalsandrareearths)thatareessentialfortheenergytransitionhaverisensteeplyowingtoacombinationoffactors,suchasasharpincreaseindemand,thedisruptionofsupplychains,andexpectationsofshortagesandsupplybottlenecks(IEA,2022b).Inthiscontext,lithiumhaspostedthesteepestpriceincreaseofallmetals,evenresistingthedeclineexperiencedsinceApril2022.Thishasaconsiderableimpactonthecostofproducingthelithium-ionbatterycellsneededtoexpandelectromobility.

.BetweenJuly2020andSeptember2022,copper,nickel,cobaltandaluminiumpricesrosebybetween20%and80%(seefigureI.7).HavingpeakedinMarchandApril2022,theythenstartedtofallbackascountriesemergedfromtheworstofthecoronavirusdisease(COVID-19)pandemicandtheoutbreakoftheconflictbetweentheRussianFederationandUkraine.Whiletherearespecificfactorsthatexplainthesituationofeachmetal,allhavebeenaffectedbynegativeexpectationsfortrendsintheindustrializedeconomiesandChina,againstthebackdropofaglobaleconomysubjecttotightmonetarypoliciesandinflation.

.Inthecaseoflithium,notonlyhasthepricerisenalmostninefold,but,unlikeotherminerals,therehasbeennosignificantreduction.Thisisexplainedbythesubstantialgrowthofelectricvehiclesalesin2021andearly2022,8combinedwithexpectationsforsupply,whichinthepasthasprovenunabletorespondwithcapacityincreasesonatimelybasis.Inthelongerterm,theprospectofafurtherfracturingoftheglobaleconomy,withpotentialformajordisruptioninsupplychains,couldputadditionalpressureonprices.

8Varioussourcesindicateafurtherincreaseinelectricvehiclesalesin2022comparedto2021.

8

Lithiumextractionandindustrialization:opportunitiesandchallengesforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

0

FigureI.7Pricevariationamongselectedminerals

(Index:31January2018=100)

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2018

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov