全球EV市場手冊

ElectrifyingtheFuture:

AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket

TableofContents

E-MOBILITY:ELECTRIFYINGTHEWAYWEMOVE 4

BASICBREAKDOWNOFELECTRICVEHICLES 4

HOWMUCHCLEANERISE-MOBILITYCOMPAREDTOCONVENTIONALTRANSPORTMODE? 5

BARRIERSTOEVS,ADOPTION 6

BATTERIESANDCHARGERS:IMPORTANTCOMPONENTSOFE-MOBILITY 8

THEMOVETOWARDSMOBILITYASASERVICE(MAAS) 8

AUTONOMOUSVEHICLES 9

GLOBALE-MOBILITYMARKET 11

BATTERYANDVOLTAGESEGMENTATION 12

ASIAISLEADINGTHEE-MOBILITYMARKET 12

GLOBALELECTRICBUSMARKET 14

CHINADOMINATESTHEGLOBALELECTRICBUSMARKET 15

ELECTRICBUSMARKETSEGMENTATION 16

GLOBALELECTRICSCOOTERMARKET 18

ASIAPACIFICLEADSTHEGLOBALMARKET,BUTEUROPESHOWSTHESTRONGESTGROWTHPOTENTIAL 19

SEALEDLEADACIDISSTILLTHEMOSTPREFERREDOPTIONFORBATTERIES 20

GLOBALBATTERYMARKET 21

THEMARKETFORPRIMARYANDSECONDARYBATTERIES 22

LITHIUM-IONANDLEAD-ACIDBATTERIESARETHEMOSTPOPULAR 22

ACLOSERLOOKATTHELITHIUM-IONBATTERYMARKET 23

LITHIUM-IONBATTERYUSAGEINE-MOBILITY 24

LITHIUM-IONBATTERYSEGMENTATIONS 25

KEYPLAYERSINTHEGLOBALBATTERYMARKET 27

GLOBALAUTONOMOUSVEHICLEMARKET 28

AUTONOMOUSVEHICLEMARKETSEGMENTATIONS 29

Bylevelofautonomousdriving 29

Bytypeofmobility 29

Bypropulsiontype 29

USANDCHINARACINGTOTOPPOSITION 31

E-MOBILITYEUROPE:ANOVERVIEWOFEUROPE’SLATESTELECTRICVEHICLESDATA 32

EUROPEEVSALES2021 33

PUBLICCHARGINGSTATIONSAVAILABILITY 34

WHICHCOUNTRIESINEUROPEHAVETHEMOSTELECTRICCARS? 35

ELECTRICBUSMARKETSHAREINEUROPE 36

EUROPE'SCO2EMISSIONSFROMNEWPASSENGERCARS 37

ABOUTSTATZON 38

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AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023

Author

RikaMelissa,DataJournalist,E-mobility

RikacametoStatzonwithabackgroundinmarketresearch,bothinqualitativeandquantitativestudies.Shehasastronginterestindatacollectionandanalysisandhowtocommunicatethosedatainasimpleyetinterestingfashion.

Thisbookexplorestheelectricmobilityrevolutionanditsanticipatedeffectsonthecitiesinwhichweresideandplanfor.Theriseofe-mobilityisverymuchrelatedtotherisingawarenessofenvironmentalproblems.Thetransportsectoraccountedfor37%ofthetotalglobalCO2emissions.TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)recordedemissionsasbigas7.7GtCO2wasproducedbythetransportsectorin2021.Around77%ofthatnumbercamefromtheroadtransportcategoryinwhichpassengercarsproducedmoreemissionscomparedtoanyothermodeofroadtransport.

Itisclearthate-mobilityandsustainabilityarecloselylinked:themoree-mobilitysolutionsweadopt,thelargerthedecreaseinCO2andothergreenhousegasemissions.Transitiontoe-

mobilityandrenewableenergygenerationholdsthekeytoacleaner,healthierfuture.Someimportantpointsthatwillbecoveredinthisbookare:

?Globale-mobilitymarket

?Globalelectricbusmarket

?Globalelectricscootermarket

?Globalautonomousvehiclemarket

?Globalbatterymarket

?EuropeEVmarket

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AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023

E-mobility:ElectrifyingtheWayWeMove

Howdowedefinee-mobility?Gartnerdefineselectromobility,ore-mobilityforshort,astheuseofelectricpowertraintechnologies,ITtechnologies,andconnectedinfrastructurestomoveavehicle.Powertraintechnologiesincludefullyelectricvehicles,plug-inhybrids,aswellashydrogenfuelcellvehiclesthatconverthydrogenintoelectricity.

Theimageofanelectricvehicle,orEV,probablycomestomindwhenwetalkaboute-mobility.Theriseofelectricvehicleshasbeentalkedaboutinrecentyears.EuromonitorreportedtheregistrationofEVshasgrownmorethantriplebetweentheyears2017to2021from3.7millionunitsto11.8millionunits.Itisclearlyafast-growingmarket.

However,itisimportanttorememberthate-mobilityismuchmorethanjustpassengercars.Thedevelopmentofe-mobilityshouldalsobeaccompaniedbythedevelopmentoftransportationinallforms:e-buses,carsharing,e-scooters,e-bikes,bikepaths,pedestrianareas,andothersbecausereworkingthemobilitynetworkmeansrevolutionizingtheculturethatinfluenceshowpeoplechoosetheirmodeoftransportation.

Basicbreakdownofelectricvehicles

Electricvehiclescomeindifferenttypes.Someelectricvehiclescanrelyonfuelcellsorgasolinegeneratorstoprovideelectricityinsteadofpowerfulbatterybanks.Theunifyingfactoristhateveryelectricvehicleincludesanelectricmotortodrivethevehicle,eitheraloneorincombinationwitha

gasoline-reliantinternalcombustionengine(ICE).

OneverybasicofEVsbreakdownisthefollowing:

EV/BEV:Electricvehicles/BatteryElectricvehicles.Thesearepureelectricvehiclesrelyingonarechargeablebatteryasthepowersourcetorunthevehicle.Theycanbechargedatapowerstationeitherathomeoratachargingstation.

HEV:Hybridelectricvehiclesthatusebothelectricpowerandthetraditionalinternalcombustionengine(ICE)thatrunsongas.Theelectricbatteriesarechargedautonomouslythroughenergyfromthegasengine.Italsousesregenerativebraking,meaningthevehiclecapturesenergyeverytimedriverhitsthebrakeandsavesitforlateruse.

PHEV:Plug-inhybridvehiclesareavarietyofhybridelectricsthatcanbepluggedintochargewithalargerbatterythannormalhybrids(HEVs).ThevehiclecanbechargedathomeoratpublicstationsjustlikeanEV.Forsomepeople,thisisanicecompromiseasitgivesyouatasteofEVwiththesecurityofagastankwhendoinglongtrips.

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AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023

FCEV:Fuelcellelectricvehiclesthatrunoncompressedhydrogenthatiscombinedwithoxygeninsideafuelcellstacktogenerateelectricity.Noelectricbatteriesareusedinthistypeofvehicle

Howmuchcleanerise-mobilitycomparedtoconventionaltransport

mode?

Whenvehiclesarerunningonelectricity,theyproducezerotailpipeemissions,butemissionsmaybeproducedbythesourceofelectricalpowersuchasapowerplant.Inareasthatuserelativelycleansourcesforelectricitythentheelectricvehicleswillhavelowerwell-to-wheelemissionsincomparisontoconventionalvehiclesrunningongasolineordiesel.Inregionsheavilydependentoncoalforelectricity,thewell-to-wheelemissionswillincreaseevenwhenthevehicleisrunningfullyonelectricity.

Transport&EnvironmentOrganizationfoundoutthatintheworst-casescenario,anelectriccarwithabatteryproducedinChinaanddriveninPolandstillemits37%lessCO2thancarsrunningongasoline.Andinthebest-casescenario,anelectriccarwithabatteryproducedinSwedenanddriveninSweden,theemissionis83%less.

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AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023

AnotherstudybyInternationalCouncilandCleanTransportation(ICCT)waslookingattheamountofgreenhousegasemissionscreatedbyEVsindifferentcountries.Fullyelectricvehiclesbyfarproducedthelowestemissionscomparedtoothercarswithdifferenttypesofpowertrains.Medium-sizeEVs'greenhouseemissionsarelowerthancomparablegasolinecarsby66%–69%inEurope,60%–68%intheUnitedStates,37%–45%inChina,and19%–34%inIndia.

BarrierstoEVs’adoption

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AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023

Asoftoday,electriccarsarenotyetridingthemainstreamwave.AstudybyAppinioshowsthatonlyoneoutoftendriversintheUSdrivesafullyelectricorplug-inhybrid.Infact,mostnon-ownershaveneverevensatinsideanelectriccaralthoughthedesiretotryitoutisgreat.

RangeanxietyremainsabarriertothewidespreadadoptionofEVs.BatterycapacitiesofcurrentEVsrangefrom17.6kWhintheSmartEQ,whichtranslatestoamaximumof58milesdrive,to100kWhintheTeslaModelSwhichoffersamaximumrangeof351miles.Morerecently,LucidAirbecametheworld’slongest-rangeEVoffering520milesofdrivingrange.

Whenitcomestotheactofpurchase,nothingisasimportantastheprice.Electricvehiclesareperceivedasexpensive,especiallywhenpeoplekeepassociatingEVswithTeslawhichpositionsitselfasaluxurybrand.

EVshaveahigherup-frontcostthangasolinecarsbutarelessexpensiveoverthecourseoftheirlifetime,mainlybecauseelectricityisrelativelyaffordable.TheaveragepriceofanEVintheUSin2022isaboutUSD66,000.Bycomparison,mid-sizedcarsareaboutUSD32,000andfull-sizedcarsareUSD44,000.EVstickerpriceismorealignedwiththepriceofaluxurycarthanmainstream.

DespitemanyforecastssayingthepriceofEVswillgodownovertheyears,thepandemicactuallyincreasedthepriceofEVsevenmoreduetoshortagesofbatteries,lithium,andcomponentslikesemiconductors.DemandforEVsisstillstrong,however,especiallyfromaffluentbuyers,makingmanufacturersmoreinclinedtoproduceluxuryEVs.

ChargingissuesisanotherbarriertoEVadoption.Theissuesincludeproblemssuchaschargingspeeds,chargerinaccessibility,costofchargers,andchargingvariancebyvehicles.

Chargingpointsarerelativelyeasytofindinurbansettings.Theyareavailableonpopularroadways,motorways,andserviceareas.Thesamecannotbesaidwhenadriverfindsthemselvesinruralarea.Locatingachargingstationinsuchareacanbecumbersomeandonceuserfindsastation,theymayfaceanotherproblemwithchargertypeorconnectorfit.CurrentOEMsoftencreateachargingsystemexclusiveonlytospecificEVswhichcanbeconfusingandintimidatingforpotentialEVconsumers.

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AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023

Batteriesandchargers:importantcomponentsofe-mobility

Aselectricvehiclesgainpopularitysodoeseveryotherinfrastructureandsupportsolutionthatenablesthevehicletofunction.Battery,forinstance,isafundamentalpartofe-mobility.Thecostofthebatteryaccountsfor35%-45%oftheEV’sstickerprice.MarketsandMarketsforecastedthemarketsizeforEVbatterieswillgrowtremendouslyfromUSD27.2billionin2021toUSD84.2in2026.Today'skeyfocusforOEMsisachievingtheoptimumbatterylife,reducedcost,fastercharging,andbiggerpower.

Chargingstationsareanimportantinfrastructurefore-mobility.Itsavailabilitycanactuallyinfluencecustomers’purchasedecisions.Althoughthenumberofstationshasspurtedovertheyears,theyarenotequallydispersed.TakingEuropeasanexample,70%ofallchargingstationsintheregionarelocatedinTheNetherlands,Germany,andFrance.Thisisanopportunityforthemarkettokeepgrowing.WecanexpectthemarketforEV’schargingstationstogrowfromUSD7.9billionin2022toUSD32.2billionin2032,basedondataprovidedbyApolloResearchReport'sdata.

Chargingcables,anotheressentialcomponentforelectriccars,areusedtoconnectthecar'schargertothechargingstationbeitathomeorinpublic.Theycomeinseveraltypesthatcandeterminethetimeyouneedtochargeyourvehicle.EVchargingcablemarketsizereachedUSD400millionin2021,accordingtoMarketsandMarkets.ThisnumberisexpectedtorisetoUSD2.2billionby2026.

ThemovetowardsMobilityasaService(MaaS)

Neweconomicmodelshavebeguntoconsidersharingconceptsasawaytogainprofit.Inasharingeconomy,assetsthatarecurrentlynotbeingusedsuchasparkedcarsandextrabedroomscanberentedout.Withthegrowingsuccessofrenteditemsandservices,newtransportationoptionshavecometothemarket.

TheideaofMaaSistoreplacetheneedtoownavehiclebyintegratingvariousformsoftransportservicesintoasinglemobilityserviceaccessibleonan"as-needed"basis.AMaaSoperatorfacilitatesadiversemodeoftransport,betheypublictransport,carsharing,bikerental,oracombinationthereof.Fortheuser,MaaSprovidesasingleapplicationtoaccessmobilitywithasinglepaymentchannelinsteadofmultipleticketingandpaymentoperations.

NextMoveStrategyConsultingestimatedthemarketvalueofMaaswhichtheydividedintofourdifferentsegmentsofproducttypes:carrental,car-sharing,ride-hailing,andtwo-wheelersharing.ItisexpectedthatthetotalmarketforMaaSwillexpandalmost20timeswithintheforecastperiodof2021-2030,fromUSD3.3billiontoUSD65.8billion,registeringa39.5%CAGR.

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AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023

AutonomousVehicles

GartnerdefinesanAutonomousVehicle(AV)asonethatcandriveitselffromastartingpointtoapredetermineddestinationin“autopilot”modeusingvariousin-vehicletechnologiesandsensors,includingadaptivecruisecontrol,activesteering(steerbywire),anti-lockbrakingsystems(brakebywire),GPSnavigationtechnology,lasers,andradar.

Thetransitiontoanautopilot,self-drivingcarwillnotoccursosuddenly.Asoftoday,mostautonomouscarsontheroadfallinto“semi-autonomous”categorywithonlylimitedamountof“fullyautonomous”vehiclesstillintestingphase.

TheSocietyofAutomotiveEngineers(SAE)defines6levelsofdrivingautomationrangingfrom0(fullymanual)to5(fullyautonomous).MostcarsproducedinrecentyearshavetheoptionofLevel1automationwithafewreachingLevel2.SomecompanieshavealreadyannouncedtheirproductionofLevel3personalautonomouscars,butthesewillonlyhitthemarketafewyearsfromnow.Level4andLevel5developmentsaredesignedmostlyforride-sharingorpublictransportusesinmind.

ThetopicsofEVsandAutonomousVehicles(AVs)areinevitablyintertwined.Theshifttoelectricpoweredvehicleshappensalmostsimultaneouslywiththedevelopmentofprogressivelyautomatedcars.Bothconceptsaimatamoresustainablemeansoftransportandarebeingimplementedgreatlyintheshared-mobilityscheme.Thetrendofautomation,electrification,andridesharingarereinforcingoneanotherandareintegralpartsofmobilityofthefuture.

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AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023

Level

DriverInvolvement

Features

Level0

Noautomation.Driver

performsalldrivingtasks.

Warningortemporaryassistancefeaturessuchasemergencybraking,blindspotwarning,lanechangingwarning.

Level1

DriverAssistance.Drivercontrolsvehiclewithsomedrivingassistfeaturesincludedinthevehicledesign.

LanesteeringORadaptivecruisecontrol.

Level2

PartialAutomation.Driverremainsengagedwithdrivingtasksbutenjoysvehicle’scombinedautomaticfunctions

LanesteeringANDadaptivecruisecontrolthatcanbeutilizedatthesametime.

Level3

ConditionalAutomation.

Driverdoesnothavetodrivebutneedstomonitortheenvironmentallthetimeandtakecontrolofthecarshortlyafterbeingalerted.

Trafficjamchauffeurfunction.

Level4

HighAutomation.Drivermayhavetheoptiontotakecontrol,butvehiclecanperformalldrivingtasksundercertainconditions.

Robotaxiordriverlesstaxi.Vehiclemayormaynothavepedalsandsteeringwheel.

Level5

FullAutomation.Drivermayhavetheoptiontotakecontrol,butvehicleiscapableofperformingalldrivingtasksunderallconditions.

SimilartoLevel4butfeaturesarenotlimitedtocertainconditionsonly.

Sources:

Statzon,

ADB,

BloombergNEF,

AFDC,

Lifewire,

Transport&Environment,

IEA

,

Appinio

,

Exro

,

DigitalTrends,

USDOE

,

iDatereportonFutureofMobility

,

Virta

,

InteractAnalysis,

McKinsey

,

IEA

,

Worldbankblog,

Gartner,

SAE,

IEA

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AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023

GlobalE-mobilityMarket

Intheirlatestreport,NextMoveStrategyConsultingforecastedthe

globale-mobilitymarket

willreachUSD2.3trillionby2030.

Thefirmincludedelectriccars,electricmotorcycles,electricscooters,electricskateboards,andelectricwheelchairsintothetermofe-mobility.

The2021marketwasvaluedatUSD279.5billion,meaningthemarketwillseeanannualgrowthrateof26.4%toreachthe2030forecastedvalue.

Theelectriccarsegmentaccountedforover65%shareofthee-mobilitymarketin2021andisestimatedtoretainitsdominanceovertheforecastperiodwithmoreorlessthesamesizeofmarketshare.Intermsofmarketvalue,thissegmentwasworth

USD180.5billionin2021

andwillreachaforecastedmarketvalueworthUSD1.5trillionby2030.

TheelectricscootersegmentisthesecondbiggestinthemarketwitharevenueofUSD51billionin2021,takingup18%ofthemarketshare.Theotherthreesegmentsareelectricmotorcyclewith13%marketshare,electricskateboard(2%),andelectricwheelchair(2%).

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AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023

theyhavenotbeenexportingtoEuropeortheUS,Chinesebrandsareontheriseduringthelast

Batteryandvoltagesegmentation

Basedontheuseofbattery,E-mobilitymarketissegmentedintosealedleadacid,NickelMetalHydride(NiMH),andlithium-ion(Li-ion).TheLi-ionsegmentisdominatingthemarketin2021andaccountedfor

52%

ofthemarket.ThesegmentisexpectedtoregisterapromisingCAGRof26.3%overtheforecastperiod.Afteradipinthemarketduringtheyear2020causedbyglobalindustrialshutdowns,thee-mobilityworldisstillfacingacrisisofbatterysupply.Thissituationispredictedtolastuntil2023,accordingtoInteractAnalysis.SupplyissotightthatEVmanufacturersmustfirstreservethebatteryinadvancebeforetheytheirEVproductionplans.Despitethecrisis,productioncapacityforlithium-ionbatteriessurpassed1TWhforthefirsttimein202,andproductionrateissettoincreasetofollowtherisingdemandsforelectricvehicles.

Intermsofvoltage,thee-mobilitymarketcanbecategorizedinto5segmentswhichare:lessthan24V,24V,36V,48V,andgreaterthan48V.The

24Vsegmentaccountedfor27%ofthetotalmarket

sharein2021oraroundUSD75.5billioninmarketvalue.

24Vbatteriesarecommonlyusedforelectricskateboardsandbikesandtheyareoftenpreferredforbeinglightweight,easytoinstall,andpowerful.Demandforthissegmentwillrisesteadily,anditwillcontinuetoaccountforanotablemarketshareuntiltheendoftheforecastperiod.

Thegreaterthan48Vsegmentisforecastedtowitnesssignificantgrowthuntil2030,growingataCAGRof27%.Customers’demandforlongerrangehascontributedtoconstantresearchanddevelopmentofvehicleswithlargervoltage.Thissegmentaccountedfor24%ofthemarketsharein2021withamarketvalueofUSD67.5billion.By2030itwillcontinuetoretainitsshareofthemarketwithaforecastedmarketvalueofUSD587billion.

Asiaisleadingthee-mobilitymarket

AsiaPacificisattheforefrontofe-mobilitymovement.Thisregionisleadingthemarketbygainingamarketvalueof

USD137.5billion

in2021,inotherwords,itcontrolsaround49%ofthetotalmarketshare.Therapiddevelopmentofe-mobilitymarketsinAsiaissupportedbystrongpolicyactionsonfourfronts:officialEVtargets,restrictionsonICEproductionandsales,consumerincentives,andsupportforEVcharginginfrastructure(EVCI).GovernmentsinmaturemarketssuchasChina,Japan,andSouthKoreahaveestablishedcomprehensivepolicyframeworkstosupporttheadoptionofelectriccars.EmergingmarketssuchasIndia,Thailand,andIndonesia,arecurrentlythelargestmicroe-mobilitymarketswithhighestnumbersof2-wheelerelectricvehiclessales.India,forinstance,surpassedChinain2017tobecomethelargestmarketforelectrictwo-wheelers.

Chinastill,however,holdstheleadershippositionintheoveralle-mobilitymarket,notonlyintheregionbutalsoglobally.Asacountry,ChinaaccountedforUSD93.2billioninrevenueoraround33%ofthetotalmarketshare.Amarketmuchbiggerthananyothercountry.MoreelectriccarsweresoldinChinain2021(3.3million)thanintheentireworldin2020.Granted,Chinatakesbenefitsfromitshugepopulationwhichcreatesahighdomesticdemandforitslocalelectricvehiclebrands.Although

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AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023

coupleofyearsandtheyhaveestablishedsolidpositionsbothlocallyandregionally.In2021,China’sBYDrose5percentinmarketshare,andWuling’saffordableelectriccar,HongguangMiniEV,soldmorethan400,000unitswithinayearofitsdebut.

AsiaPacificwillfacecompetitionfromtheEuropeanmarketthatissettogrowat29%CAGR.ThehighestCAGRamongotherregions.InEurope,traditionalcarmakersareincreasinglyelectrifyingtheirproductranges.Since2015,thegovernmentexertedagradualtighteningofCO2emissionsthrough2030asamovetowardseliminationofICE.ThisrulingwillmakeitalmostimpossibleformanufacturerstomakemoneyfromsellingICEcarstheyareforcedtofocusonproducingandsellingelectricvehicles.

Europee-mobilitymarketwasvaluedatUSD80billionin2021

oraround28.5%intermsofmarketshare.Themarketwillexpandtogain34%shareby2030withforecastedmarketvalueofUSD790billion.GermanyistheleadingmarketinEuropewithamarketsizeworthUSD24billionin2021.HometobigautomotivemanufacturerssuchasVolkswagen,Mercedes,andBMW,Germanywantstotakealeadingroleintheproductionanduseofelectricvehiclesinthise-mobilityera.RapidgrowthofelectriccarregistrationsinEuropecanbeattributedtogovernmentstimulusmeasuresforthosebuyingelectriccarsinsteadoftraditionalICTs.SalesgrowthhasalsobeenboostedbytaxbenefitsandsubsidiesappliedinmanyEuropeancountries.

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AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023

GlobalElectricBusMarket

Citiesareincreasinglyadoptingmoreelectricbuseswithadeadlinetophaseoutfossilfuelbusesinthefuture.Nearly25%ofregisteredbusesin2021werezero-emission,accordingtonewdatafromTransport&Environment.CountrieslikeDenmark,NewZealand,andTheNetherlandshavealreadysetfor100%zero-emissionbusprocurementsby2025,whileCostaRicahasalong-termgoaltoreach100%busfleetelectrificationby2050.

The

globalmarketforelectricbusesreachesUSD19.2billionin

2022,basedonanestimationbyApolloResearchReports.Thisnumberwillgrowatanannualrateof13.3%,themarketsizewillhitUSD66.5billionbytheendoftheforecastperiodin2032.AnothermarketevaluationfromTheInsightPartnersgivesamorepromisingforecast.Accordingtotheirresearch,theglobalmarketforelectricbusesisgrowingat20.2%CAGRduringtheforecastperiodof2021to2028.ThemarketwasvaluedatUSD29billionin2021andisgrowingtoreachUSD105billionby2028.

Otherthantheincreasinggovernmentinitiativetodecarbonizepublictransportationfleets,thefallingpriceofbatterieshasacceleratedtheadoptionrateofelectricbusesbycitiesandcountries.Batteriesmakeup40%ofthecostofelectricbuses.Withthecostoflithium-ionbatterypacksexpectedtogodownby52%between2018-2030,thehighinitialcosttodevelopanelectrifiedtransportfleetcanbereduced,andthegrowthoftheelectricbusmarketwillbeencouraged.

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AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023

billionby2028.Newregistrationsofzero-emissionbusesoutnumberedgasinalmosteverypartof

Chinadominatestheglobalelectricbusmarket

AsiaPacificistheleadingregionintheglobalelectricbusmarket.ThisregiongainedUSD26billioninmarketvalueduringtheyear2021andthisnumberwillgrowtoUSD96billionby2028,registeringan18.9%CAGR.

ChinaalonecontributedUSD24milliontotheregion'soverallmarketvaluein2021.Intermsofmarketshare,Chinaisdominatingthemarketbothregionallyandglobally,controllingover80%oftheglobalmarketshare,whichwillbemaintainedbythecountrythroughouttheforecastperiod.

Chinahasmaderemarkableprogressinrollingoutnewenergybuses(NEB),mostlyconsistingofbatteryelectricbuses.Bytheendof2020,54%ofthecountry'sbusfleetwillbeelectrified,andseveralcitieslikeShenzhen,Tianjin,andZhengzhou,tonameafew,haveachieved100%ofbusfleetelectrification.

Theshiftfromconventionalfossilfuel-basedvehiclestoelectricbuseshasmadeapositivedifferenceinChina.Onceknownasoneofthemostpollutedcities,Beijing’sairandwaterqualityhavesignificantlyimproved.ThenumberofdayswithheavypollutionintheChinesecapitalwasdownto10in2020from43in2015,adropofnearly80%inpollution.

InEurope,themarketisacceleratingslightlyfaster.Growingata21.6%CAGR,thehighestamongotherregions,EuropemarketvalueisexpectedtoincreasefromUSD1,5billionin2021toUSD5,8

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AComprehensiveHandbookontheEVMarket–Statzon-2023

likeDenmark,NewZealand,andTheNetherlandshavealreadysetfor100%zero-emissionbus

Europein2021.TheEUCleanVehicleDirectivesetsminimumquotasforpurchasingnewzero-emissionpublicbusesforitsmembers,althoughthequotasaredifferentfromcountrytocountry.InmostWesternEuropeancountries,atleast22.5%ofthetotalbusfleetshouldbezeroemissionby

2025,risingto32.5%by2030,formostcountrieswithintheEU,accordingtoa2021reportpublished

byINGwiththetitle

“AllAboardEurope’sElectricBusRevolution”.

NorthAmericaislaggingbehindAPACandEuropeinthetransitiontoelectricbuses.TheregioncontributedUSD756milliontotheglobalmarketinrevenue,seizingaround2.6%ofthetotalmarketshare.TheUS,inparticular,remainsalongwayfromacompletetransitiontoanelectricfleet.Thelonglifespanofdieselbusesispartoftheproblem.Mostdieselbuseslastapproximately12years,meaningitwilltakesometimebeforetheyareupforreplacement.Federalregulationalsocapsthenumberofbusesthatatransitagencymayhave,makingitmoredifficultforthemtoaddelectricbusestotheircurrentfleets.

Theregioniscatchingup,f