JPMorgan Econ FI-US Core CPI trend continues to moderate-此為英文文檔

NorthAmericaEconomicResearch

10August2023

US:CoreCPItrendcontinuesto

moderate

ThemaindetailsoftheJulyconsumerpriceindex(CPI)cameoutveryclosetoexpectations.TheheadlineCPIincreased0.2%inthatmonth,withfoodpricesrising0.2%,energypricesedgingup0.1%,andthecoreindexincreasing0.2%(0.16%totwodecimals).Therehavenowbeenback-to-backfairlysoftmonthsforcoreinflation,withthisindexupatanannualizedrateofonly1.9%acrossJuneandJuly.Twomonthsisprobablytoosmallofawindowtodeclareanewtrend,butmorebroadlyitappearsthattheunderlyingtrendincoreinflationhasmoderated.Intermsofyear-agoinflationrates,thecoreCPIpeakedat6.6%oyalastSeptemberandthenslowedto4.8%inJuneandnow4.7%inJuly.ThiscoolingininflationprobablykeepstheFedonholdatitsSeptembermeeting,althoughthereisstillmoredatatocomebetweennowandthen.

ManyofthedetailscameoutclosetowhatwewereexpectingwithinthecoreCPIforJuly.Therentmeasurescontinuedtopostsolidmonthlygains(althoughthepaceofrentalinflationhascooledlatelyrelativetoevenstrongerreadings),withtenants’rentrising0.42%inJulyandowners’equilaventrentincreasing0.49%.ButmanyothercategorieswithintheCPIlookedmuchsofter,includingpricedeclinesreportedforusedvehicles(-1.3%),newvehicles(-0.1%),publictransportation(-6.3%),lodging(-0.3%),andmedicalcare(-0.2%).Intermsofsomeofthebroadsubgroupingswithinthecoremeasure,coregoodspricesdeclined0.3%inJulywhilecoreservicespricesrose0.3%.Theso-called“supercore”(meaningcoreservicesex.rent)rose0.2%inJuly.

Whiletomorrow'sPPIreleasealsowillhaveimportantrelatedinformation,followingtoday’sCPIrelease,wethinkJulycorePCEinflationistracking0.12%(4.1%oya).

EconomicResearch

DanielSilver

(1-212)622-6039

daniel.a.silver@

JPMorganChaseBankNA

HeadlineCPI

%oya

15

10

5

0

-5

7075808590950005101520

Source:BLS,J.P.Morgan

Seepage5foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.

2

DanielSilver(1-212)622-6039

daniel.a.silver@

JPMorganChaseBankNA

NorthAmericaEconomicResearch

US:CoreCPItrendcontinuesto

moderate

10August2023

CoreCPI

%oya

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

7075808590950005101520

Source:BLS,J.P.Morgan

CoreCPI

%m/m,sa

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

20172018201920202021202220232024

Source:BLS,J.P.Morgan

CoregoodsandcoreservicesCPI

%m/m,sa

2.4

1.6

0.8

0.0

-0.8

Coregoods

Coreservices

2015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Source:BLS,J.P.Morgan

3

DanielSilver(1-212)622-6039

daniel.a.silver@

JPMorganChaseBankNA

NorthAmericaEconomicResearch

10August2023

CPIrentmeasures

%m/m,sa

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

Tenants'rent

Owners'

equivalentrent

838893980308131823

Source:BLS,J.P.Morgan

CPI:newandusedmotorvehicles

Index,sa

140

130

120

110

100

90

05070911131517192123

Source:BLS,J.P.Morgan

CPI:airfares

Index,sa

350

300

250

200

150

100

89949904091419

Source:BLS,J.P.Morgan

4

DanielSilver(1-212)622-6039

daniel.a.silver@

JPMorganChaseBankNA

NorthAmericaEconomicResearch

US:CoreCPItrendcontinuesto

moderate

10August2023

CPI:airfares

Index,sa

350

300

250

200

150

100

89949904091419

Source:BLS,J.P.Morgan

Consumerprices

%m/m,sa

%oya,nsa

Mar23Apr23May23Jun23Jul23Mar23Apr23May23Jun23Jul23

CPI,Allitems

0.05

0.37

0.12

0.18

0.17

5.0

4.9

4.0

3.0

3.2

Core(79)

0.38

0.41

0.44

0.16

0.16

5.6

5.5

5.3

4.8

4.7

Food(13)

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.2

8.5

7.7

6.7

5.7

4.9

Energy(7)

-3.5

0.6

-3.6

0.6

0.1

-6.4

-5.1

-11.7

-16.7

-12.5

Housing(42)

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.4

7.8

7.5

6.8

6.3

6.2

Owners'eq.rent(23)

0.48

0.54

0.52

0.45

0.49

8.0

8.1

8.0

7.8

7.7

Lodgingawayfromhome(1)

2.7

-3.0

1.8

-2.0

-0.3

7.3

3.3

3.4

4.5

6.0

Rent(7)

0.49

0.56

0.49

0.46

0.42

8.8

8.8

8.7

8.3

8.0

Apparel(2)

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.0

3.3

3.6

3.5

3.1

3.2

Newvehicles(4)

0.4

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

-0.1

6.1

5.4

4.7

4.1

3.5

Usedvehicles(4)

-0.9

4.4

4.4

-0.5

-1.3

-11.2

-6.6

-4.2

-5.2

-5.6

Publictransportation(1)

3.2

-5.0

0.9

-6.8

-6.3

12.4

0.3

-8.9

-13.3

-13.2

Medicalcare(8)

-0.3

0.0

0.1

0.0

-0.2

1.5

1.1

0.7

0.1

-0.5

Education(3)

0.5

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.3

3.5

3.6

3.4

3.1

3.2

Communication(4)

0.0

-0.1

-0.3

-0.5

-0.1

-0.2

0.1

0.1

-0.3

-0.1

Corecommodities(22)

0.2

0.6

0.6

-0.1

-0.3

1.5

2.0

2.0

1.3

0.8

Coreservices(58)

0.45

0.36

0.40

0.25

0.35

7.1

6.8

6.6

6.2

6.1

CPI,Allitems(NSAindexlevel)

301.836

303.363

304.127

305.109

305.691

Source:BLS.Weightsinparentheses.

5

DanielSilver(1-212)622-6039

daniel.a.silver@

JPMorganChaseBankNA

NorthAmericaEconomicResearch

10August2023

Analysts'Compensation:Theresearchanalystsresponsibleforthepreparationofthisreportreceivecompensationbaseduponvariousfactors,includingthequalityandaccuracyofresearch,clientfeedback,competitivefactors,andoverallfirmrevenues.

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NorthAmericaEconomicResearch

US:CoreCPItrendcontinuesto

moderate

10August2023

regulatedbytheDubaiFinancialServicesAuthority(DFSA)anditsregisteredaddressisDubaiInternationalFinancialCentre-TheGate,WestWing,Level3and9POBox506551,Dubai,UAE.ThismaterialhasbeendistributedbyJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,DubaiBranchtopersonsregardedasprofessionalclientsormarketcounterpartiesasdefinedundertheDFSArules.EuropeanEconomicArea(EEA):Unlessspecifiedtothecontrary,researchisdistributedintheEEAbyJ.P.MorganSE(“JPMSE”),whichissubjecttoprudentialsupervisionbytheEuropeanCentralBank(“ECB”)incooperationwithBaFinandDeutscheBundesbankinGermany.JPMSEisacompanyheadquarteredinFrankfurtwithregisteredaddressatTaunusTurm,Taunustor1,FrankfurtamMain,60310,Germany.ThematerialhasbeendistributedintheEEAtopersonsregardedasprofessionalinvestors(orequivalent)pursuanttoArt.4para.1no.10andAnnexIIofMiFIDIIanditsrespectiveimplementationintheirhomejurisdictions(“EEAprofessionalinvestors”).ThismaterialmustnotbeactedonorreliedonbypersonswhoarenotEEAprofessionalinvestors.AnyinvestmentorinvestmentactivitytowhichthismaterialrelatesisonlyavailabletoEEArelevantpersonsandwillbeengagedinonlywithEEArelevantpersons.HongKong:J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited(CEnumberAAJ321)isregulatedbytheHongKongMonetaryAuthorityandtheSecuritiesandFuturesCommissioninHongKong,andJ.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited(CEnumberAAB027)isregulatedbytheSecuritiesandFuturesCommissioninHongKong.JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranch(CENumberAAL996)isregulatedbytheHongKongMonetaryAuthorityandtheSecuritiesandFuturesCommission,isorganizedunderthelawsoftheUnitedStateswithlimitedliability.WherethedistributionofthismaterialisaregulatedactivityinHongKong,thematerialisdistributedinHongKongbyorthroughJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limitedand/orJ.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited.India:J.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimited(CorporateIdentityNumber-U67120MH1992FTC068724),havingitsregisteredofficeatJ.P.MorganTower,Off.C.S.T.Road,Kalina,Santacruz-East,Mumbai–400098,isregisteredwiththeSecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia(SEBI)asa‘ResearchAnalyst’havingregistrationnumberINH000001873.J.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedisalsoregisteredwithSEBIasamemberoftheNationalStockExchangeofIndiaLimitedandtheBombayStockExchangeLimited(SEBIRegistrationNumber–INZ000239730)andasaMerchantBanker(SEBIRegistrationNumber-MB/INM000002970).Telephone:91-22-61573000,Facsimile:91-22-61573990andWebsite:.JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.-MumbaiBranchislicensedbytheReserveBankofIndia(RBI)(LicenceNo.53/LicenceNo.BY.4/94;SEBI-IN/CUS/014/CDSL:IN-DP-CDSL-444-2008/IN-DP-NSDL-285-2008/INBI00000984/INE231311239)asaScheduledCommercialBankinIndia,whichisitsprimarylicenseallowingittocarryonBankingbusinessinIndiaandotheractivities,whichaBankbranchinIndiaarepermittedtoundertake.Fornon-localresearchmaterial,thismaterialisnotdistributedinIndiabyJ.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimited.ComplianceOfficer:SpurthiGadamsetty;spurthi.gadamsetty@;+912261573225.GrievanceOfficer:RamprasadhK,jpmipl.research.feedback@;+912261573000.

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.SouthAfrica:J.P.MorganEquitiesSouthAfricaProprietaryLimitedandJPMorganChaseBank

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JPMorganChaseBankNA

NorthAmericaEconomicResearch

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