趨向在美國(guó)食品供應(yīng)鏈子

TrendsintheU.S.FoodSupplyChain

Dr.KennethC.Clayton

USDAAgriculturalMarketingServiceWorldUnionofWholesaleMarkets

September19,2005

第一頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。TrendsintheU.S.FoodSupplyChain

Introduction

OverviewofTraditional“Competitive”SupplyChainStructureTheSupplyChainofYesteryear

OverviewofEmerging“Partnership”SupplyChainStructureTheSupplyChainofToday

ReasonsforChange:ChannelBlurringChangingConsumerPreferencesRetailDifferentiationRetailConcentration

GrowingImportanceofFoodserviceTechnologicalCapabilitiesChangingStructureofProductionAgriculture第二頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。

TheSupplyChainofYesteryearSources:BrianSilbermann,PMA,March2005

Dr.DonBowersox,MichiganStateUniversity“Competitive”StructureTraditionalsupermarketsdominatedretailmarketplace

Manyshipperssoldtomanybuyersinwholesaleandretailmarkets;nolargebuyersdrovethemarket

Buyerstendedtobemoretransactionandprice-oriented;notopentocooperativepartnershipswithsuppliers

Dailysalestransactionsweretypical

“Newtechnology”equaledafaxmachineandPLUstickers

“Anticipatory”supplychainsysteminplacewheresuppliersForecastproductsalesBuythecomponentsandmanufacturetheproductsWarehousetheproductsSelltheproductsproducedDelivertheproductstotheconsumer第三頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。

TheSupplyChainofToday“Partnership”Structure

Buyersseekingmorelong-termrelationshipswithsupplierstoensuresteadierpricing,supplyavailability,greaterqualitycontrol

Traditional“cultural”dividebetweenprocurementandmarketing/merchandisingdepartmentsdisappearingaslong-termsupplyrelationshipstakeprecedenceovershort-termpricenegotiationsTechnologicalcapabilitiesallowsuperiorexchangeofdatabetweenfoodsuppliersandbuyers,whichpermitsmoreprecisemonitoringandcalculationsofsalestransactionsanddemandrequirements

第四頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。

TheSupplyChainofToday“Real-time”informationexchangepermitsmovementtowardso-called“responsive”businessmodel,wherebysuppliersFirstselltheirproductsBuythecomponentsandmaterialsnecessarytoproducetheproductsManufacturetheproductsanddelivertocustomer

Underthefullyresponsivebusinessmodel,thereisnoinventory.Thesystemworkssoquicklythatretailerscansellproductstoconsumersthattheretailerhasnotevenhadtopayforyet.Forfoodproducts,growingverticalintegrationofU.S.productionagriculture—includingcommoditiessuchasproduce—increaseopportunitiesforstrategicalliancesacrossthesupplychainOccurringagainstbackdropofgrowingdiversityofretailvenueswherefoodproductsaremarketedtoconsumers,includingawayfromhome第五頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

ChannelBlurring第六頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

ChannelBlurringConsumersarerejectingtraditionalsupermarketsinfavorofalternativefoodretailoutlets:

Traditionalgrocerychannelhasexperienceddeclineseveryyearsince1995In2004,theaverageU.S.householdmade69tripstotraditionalsupermarketsorgrocerystores,comparedto92tripsin1995

2004markedthefirstyearthattraditionalsupermarketsorgrocerystoresexperiencedlessthan100%householdpenetrationTraditionalgrocerystoresrepresented52%ofthenation’sgroceryandconsumablesalesin2004,downfrom81%in1994Shareisforecasttoslipto46%by2009第七頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

ChannelBlurringSupercenters,dollarstoresbiggainersinpastfewyears:

Supercentershavegainedthemostintermsofnumberofaverageannualshoppingtrips(27persurveyedhouseholdin2004,comparedto15in1999)

17%ofsurveyedcustomersnowreportthatsupercentersaretheirprimaryfoodshoppingvenue

Dollarstoreshavegainedthemostintermsofhouseholdpenetration67%ofsurveyedhouseholdsvisitedadollarstorein2004,comparedto52%in1999Nontraditionalfoodsellers,includingsupercenters,dollarstores,andwholesaleclubs,represented32%ofgroceryandconsumablesalesin2004,upfrom9%in1994–expectedtoriseto39%by2009Sources:ProgressiveGrocer,April2004

FMI,May2004第八頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

ChannelBlurringDirect-to-consumermarketingoutletsgainingtraction

Valueofdirect-to-consumersalesgrew37%between1997and2002

2%ofsurveyedfoodshoppersnowindicatethatfarmersmarketsaretheirprimaryfoodshoppingvenueFarmersmarketsreportedtohavenearlya4%marketshareoftheorganicfoodmarketSources:OrganicTradeAssociation2004ManufacturersSurvey

2002CensusofAgriculture第九頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

ChangingConsumerPreferencesTheaverageshoppershopsat2.2storeseachweektoobtainalltheiritems,andthefactthattheyarewillingtogotodifferentstorestopurchasevariousitemssuggeststhatsupermarketsaremissinganopportunitytocapturemoreconsumerdollarsbydeliveringandcommunicatingagreaterselectionandvaluetotheirshoppers. ─PhilLempert,SupermarketGuru(2002)

第十頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

ChangingConsumerPreferences

Growingpopularityofspecialtyandvalue-addedfoods

Organicfoods

U.S.salesoforganicfoodgrewfrom$3.5billionin1997toreachmorethan$10billionby2003$4.3billionor42%oftotalorganicsalesin2003consistedofproduceitems

Averagegrowthrateof18%projectedbetween2004-2008,comparedwithgrowthof2%to3%fortheconventionalfoodindustrySource:OrganicTradeAssociation第十一頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

ChangingConsumerPreferences

Growingpopularityofspecialtyandvalue-addedfoods(continued)

Locally-grownfoods

Largeincreasesindemandforlocalfoodsacrossallrestaurantcategories.

73%ofAmericanssayitisimportanttoknowwhetherfoodisgrownorproducedlocallyorregionally

Morethan75%ofconsumerssurveyedin2003insevenMidwesternstatesandthemetropolitanBostonandSeattleareaschose“grownlocallybyfamilyfarmers”astheir#1choiceforproduceorproductsSources:RoperPublicAffairs,IowaStateUniversity

TheNationalRestaurantAssociation第十二頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

ChangingConsumerPreferencesSource:TrendsinU.S.ProduceMarketing,Dr.RobertaCook,Univ.ofCADavis,April2005,basedonACNielsenfigures

Growingpopularityofspecialtyandvalue-addedfoods(continued)

Convenience-orientedfoods

Salesoffreshcutsaladsatsupermarketsincreasedfrom$197millionin1993to$2.5billionin2003第十三頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

ChangingConsumerPreferencesGrowingpopularityofspecialtyandvalue-addedfoods

(continued)

Ready-to-eat/takeoutfoods

Manyconsumers,whennoteatingout,arebringingpreparedmealshome.Almostone-third(31%)saythat,atleastonceaweek,theyeatmealsathomethatwerenotpreparedathome

Closeto10%saytheybringhometakeoutfoodthreeormoretimeseachweekMoretake-outfoodbeingpurchasedatsupermarkets27%oftakeoutfoodpurchasedatsupermarketsin2004,comparedto19%in2003Source:FMI2004Trendsreport第十四頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

RetailDifferentiationConsumersarebecomingmorepolarizedandfragmentedasagroup.Thedifferencesinproductandshoppingpreferencesbetweenyoungandold,richandpoor,marriedandsingle,Caucasianandethnic,urbanandexurban,arebecominggreater.Theseconsumersarelookingforproductsandservicesthatareauthenticanduniquetotheircommunities.

─DeloitteResearch

(quotedinProgressiveGrocer,Feb.15,2005)第十五頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

RetailDifferentiationInresponsetochangingconsumerdemands,retailersarebecomingmorefocusedonspecificmarketsegments

Newstoreconstructionin2003wasprimarilydrivenbytarget-marketfocusedstores.Overall,12.6%ofcompaniesthatrespondedtoFMI’sstoredevelopmentsurveyoperatedatleastonetarget-marketfocusedstore.Ofthese:

44.4%offeredgourmetformatsandnearlyone-thirdofferedHispanic-orientedornatural/organicformats

Themajorityoperatedsmallerchainsof11to100stores

36.4%ofthetarget-marketfocusedstoresscheduledtoopeninthenextyearwereHispanic-orientedformats,45.5%werenatural/organicoutlets,and18.2%weregourmetoutlets第十六頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

RetailDifferentiationDemandforvarietydrivingexpansionofretailproducedepartmentsStronggrowthinretailproducestockkeepingunits(SKUs)providescompetitiveadvantagetosuppliers—suchasspecialtywholesalers—whocandeliverbroadvarietyofproduceitemstoretailbuyersSource:FreshTrack2001,CornellUniversity第十七頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

RetailConcentration第十八頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

RetailConcentrationDwindlingsupermarketloyaltyleadstosluggishprofitsTotalsalesatU.S.supermarketsin2004rose4.2%above2003.WhendeflatedbytheFMI’ssupermarketpriceindex,actualgrowthwasjust0.89%─belowtheaverage1%increaseinpopulation

In2003,althoughsalesgrowthatthetoptensupermarketchainsgrew2.7%,overallfoodsalesgrowthactuallyincreased5.8%duringthesametimeperiod,demonstratingtherelativeweaknessofthetraditionalsupermarketsector.Source:U.S.CensusBureau第十九頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

RetailConcentrationConsolidationofretailsupermarketscontinuestointensifyGrocerySalesMarketShare

TopU.S.FoodRetailers

1992-2004Sources:USDA/ERS,1992-2003,FMI2004

FMI(2004salesstatistics)

Top20foodretailersinU.S.responsiblefor68%ofretailgrocerysales,95%ofsupermarketsales

Top4foodretailersinU.S.responsiblefornearly39%ofgrocerysales,54%ofsupermarketsales

第二十頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

RetailConcentrationHighlycompetitiveleadingtoaggressivecostsavingandheightenedqualitycontrolthroughoutthesupplychainMorethan80%ofsurveyedretailersrevealedthattheydemandedmoreservicesfromtheirsuppliersthantheydidin1993

74%ofsurveyedproduceshippersreportedincreaseddemandfromtheirretailbuyers.Toppingthelistwere:

Theprovisionofprivatelabelproducts

Categorymanagementservices

Electronicdatainterchangecapability

Greateremphasisbeingplacedonpreciseinventorymanagementthroughcollaborativerelationships,dataexchangewithsuppliers

Sources:WillardBishopConsulting,June2000

NationalFoodandAgriculturalPolicyProjectPolicy(NFAPP)BriefingPaper,

ArizonaStateUniversity,March2001第二十一頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

GrowingImportanceofFoodservice第二十二頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

GrowingImportanceofFoodserviceAway-from-homefoodconsumptioncontinuestoincreaseIn2003,about$949billionworthoffoodwassuppliedbythefoodmarketingsystem.Foodservicefacilitiessuppliedabout$445billionofthistotalforon-premiseorimmediateconsumption,the2ndhighestlevelinrecenthistory.

70%ofshopperseattheireveningmealoutatleastonceaweek

Produceconsumptionhasbeensignificantlyboostedbytheaway-from-homemarket

Percapitaconsumptionofvegetablesincreasedbyabout25%between1980-82and2000-02.

Morethan30%offreshonions,freshmarkettomatoes,mushrooms,sweetpeppersandgarlicareusedinfoodserviceSource:USDAEconomicResearchService;FMI,June2004第二十三頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

GrowingImportanceofFoodserviceAway-from-homefoodconsumptioncontinuestoincrease(continued)第二十四頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

GrowingImportanceofFoodserviceImplicationsofaway-from-homeconsumptiontrendsRapidgrowthinimportanceoffoodservicesegmenttowholesaleindustry1987:8%ofwholesaleproducesalesgeneratedbyfoodservicecustomers(comparedto38%forretail)

1997:21%ofwholesaleproducesalesgeneratedbyfoodservicecustomers(comparedto35%forretail)

2002:Surveyedspecialtyfoodandproducedistributorsreportthatfoodservicecustomersaccountfor45%ofsales

2005:Foodserviceshareofspecialtydistributorsalesprojectedtoriseto48%

Sources:1987and1997datafromUSDA/ERS,2002and2005datafromCornellUniversity

CensusofWholesaleTrade

FreshTrack2003(Cornell,PMA)第二十五頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

GrowingImportanceofFoodserviceDemandsforservicebyfoodserviceoperatorstemperdesirefordirectprocurementfromgrowersTwo-thirdsoffoodserviceoperatorssurveyedbyCornellUniversityin2003—andmorethanthree-quartersofcasualdiningoperators—expecttoincrease“theirdirectcontactwithgrower/shippers”toplanproductionofspecificproduceitems/varietiesDespitesignsofinterestinestablishingmoredirectgrowercontact,foodserviceoperatorsexpressequalorgreaterpreferencetoreceivingthefollowingservicesfromdistributorsratherthangrower/shippers:PricequotesMarketreportsAvailabilityof“opportunisticbuys”P(pán)ackagecustomizationCost-basedanalysisFoodsafetyassuranceQualityinspectionsSources:CornellUniversity,FreshTrack2003第二十六頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

GrowingImportanceofFoodserviceSpecialtyproducedistributorshavethecompetitiveedgeinmeetingfoodservicedemandsforvariety,quality,flexibilityLargemajorityofsurveyedfoodserviceoperatorsexpecttoincreasenumberoffresh,pre-cut,and“healthy”produceitemstheypurchase,includingitemsfor“centeroftheplate”entreesSpecialtydistributorstypicallyhandlemoreproduceSKUsthanbroadlinedistributors(whosupplyfoodandnon-fooditems)—377SKUs,onaverage,comparedto310forbroadlinedistributors.Specialtydistributorsplacemoreemphasisonhandling“unique”producevarieties,“pre-ripened”fruits,andtoalesserdegree,organicproductsWhenselectingasupplierofpre-cutproduce,foodserviceoperatorsindicatedthat“frequent”and“flexible”deliveryschedulesmatteredmost—givingadistinctadvantagetofirmsthatcanprovidethesetailoredservicesSources:CornellUniversity,FreshTrack2003第二十七頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

TechnologicalCapabilities第二十八頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

TechnologicalCapabilities

Newtechnologies,suchastheGlobalDataSynchronizationNetwork(GDSN),allowelectroniccommunicationof“real-time”databetweenfirms,facilitatingcategorymanagementandefficientsupplyreplenishmentForproducttracking,RadioFrequencyIdentification(RFID)tagscanprovidemoredetailed,accurate,andfrequentdatamessagesthanbarcodes

第二十九頁(yè)，共三十五頁(yè)。ReasonsforChange

TechnologicalCapabilitiesCurrenttechnologicalprioritiesWhensupermarketbuyerswereaskedwhichareaswillyourcompanytestorlaunchaprogramin2005,theyresponded:DataSynchronization,28%in2005,comparedto18%in2004

RFID,21%in2005,comparedto3%in2004

Nearlyhalfoffoodserviceoperatorssurveyedin2003alreadyrankedelectronicdatainterchangecapabilitywithsuppliersasanimportantprioritySource:11thAnnualStateoftheIndustry/SupermarketTechnologyReport,SupermarketNews,1/31/05,andFreshTrack2003,Corne