銀行股投資策略重繪價(jià)值坐標(biāo)

中國(guó)國(guó)際金融有限公司 范艷瑾2004年3月重繪價(jià)值坐標(biāo)

----2004年銀行股投資策略1目錄經(jīng)營(yíng)模式從“規(guī)模擴(kuò)張”到“盈利質(zhì)量”的轉(zhuǎn)變關(guān)于A股銀行估值的討論影響銀行股的近期因素投資建議2經(jīng)營(yíng)模式從“規(guī)模擴(kuò)張”到“盈利質(zhì)量”的轉(zhuǎn)變3經(jīng)停濟(jì)厘對(duì)忠銀覽行羅的嘆高窩度焦依捏賴搬造株就碌銀響行防粗構(gòu)放皂型汗規(guī)逝模蘭擴(kuò)崇張雄模配式數(shù)唯據(jù)族來乖源甲：旋C蓋E存I云C4資矛產(chǎn)預(yù)負(fù)棉債騰擴(kuò)剝張藏模鹿式立影奧響燈銀狗行非的縮慧安臺(tái)全氣性類和非盈賊利告性艱：銀臺(tái)行愉經(jīng)光營(yíng)麗抵童御頃經(jīng)折濟(jì)賠波句動(dòng)央風(fēng)揭險(xiǎn)壯的煙能窄力免較諷差盈泳利端能琴力程落握后戶于媽規(guī)耀模探的乖增剖長(zhǎng)抖，關(guān)資津產(chǎn)日收牙益盒率棚低規(guī)軍模表擴(kuò)霧張華大口量系消尺耗橋資精本說金班，疫再后融山資戰(zhàn)需物求紋旺住盛傳密統(tǒng)躬經(jīng)賞營(yíng)援模再式群的腸缺抓陷5變桂革洞：敵順鋒應(yīng)屋監(jiān)升管勿意姐圖經(jīng)醋濟(jì)掉增東長(zhǎng)喇過栗度殊依距賴斬銀懶行殲體蜂系粘的河局醒面風(fēng)引惡起能了帳央秒行降的曠擔(dān)疫憂銀垂監(jiān)扯會(huì)挑著斃重印銀灘行奏均職衡姐發(fā)豬展簽，蔑注侵重碗釋鴿放佛銀挽行椒的萬潛態(tài)在她風(fēng)從險(xiǎn)股險(xiǎn)份斜制羅商訂業(yè)水銀狼行抵風(fēng)誦險(xiǎn)丟評(píng)墾級(jí)凡體粘系商扮業(yè)姿銀郵行櫻資梯本爹充徐足驕率辱管身理添辦雄法政后府旗鼓友勵(lì)綢發(fā)廈展種直錦接枯融聽資浩，易銀念行膝需閉適國(guó)應(yīng)啄資術(shù)本悼市蟲場(chǎng)周發(fā)濱展靜尋膚找敵新活的順盈然利鋤機(jī)越會(huì)立過法造方凝面求也絞為粥銀誓行換經(jīng)辯營(yíng)辜模臟式倍的披調(diào)教整弄預(yù)以留紀(jì)了巾操邪作廁空倒間6變制革奮：沈迫閱于趨競(jìng)木爭(zhēng)幕的圾壓穴力7短奧期悠利纖益桿與銹長(zhǎng)燦期東利總益甜的岔平嘉衡注伯重響盈盾利宏質(zhì)鏟量砍的額經(jīng)值營(yíng)零模春式估特局征掌（殼長(zhǎng)近期英趨他勢(shì)擔(dān)）不倒以怪資廣產(chǎn)驗(yàn)規(guī)營(yíng)模管擴(kuò)焦張艦和抗利強(qiáng)潤(rùn)湊總燒量飛增征長(zhǎng)剃速質(zhì)度飄作循為肌評(píng)刮判疏標(biāo)話準(zhǔn)控看制湊貸判款譜組辟合越風(fēng)戲險(xiǎn)馬，賊講研究都風(fēng)篩險(xiǎn)雪調(diào)社整奸后截收押益斥率進(jìn)惕行豎利跟率煉和影流誘動(dòng)選性殃管離理琴，勁防氏范疫利纏率宇風(fēng)扛險(xiǎn)資設(shè)產(chǎn)擋規(guī)損模捏擴(kuò)快張纖要繞受餃到遣資翻本恨充浩足危率仗的舞約想束采灰取伍審餐慎得的機(jī)會(huì)堤計(jì)縱政鏟策蜓和族會(huì)爭(zhēng)計(jì)磁估挨計(jì)閱，枕真春實(shí)瓶反俘映紐奉利逼潤(rùn)提躁供沉增巖值導(dǎo)性鴉、累差錘異以性抹的辣銀鴨行孟服回務(wù)號(hào)，雖提糧高隙資卡產(chǎn)盾收增益柏率8短岸期辯利叔益餓與爛長(zhǎng)科期蒜利睡益堅(jiān)的局平獨(dú)衡炸（毒續(xù)扛）短漸期虧經(jīng)洞營(yíng)榨層惱面勸面怕臨遺的衰壓胃力緊舞縮勾性麻貨殃幣浪政蘿策扛導(dǎo)肆致案貸購(gòu)款攝擴(kuò)膠張霸速瞞度章放果緩銀用監(jiān)鄰會(huì)何嚴(yán)店格邀監(jiān)釘管時(shí)增顏加陽外增部國(guó)約潑束纏，暢凈晴利簡(jiǎn)潤(rùn)卸難鏟以韻超背長(zhǎng)霞增吵長(zhǎng)再政融許資扮補(bǔ)筐充蹤蝶資畜本屢，濃高才杠過桿享率腐降自低擋，圍凈蛾資永產(chǎn)主收湯益極率圓下君降培犯育薪中碼間爭(zhēng)業(yè)彈務(wù)簽將吐提嬌高推固梅定湖資項(xiàng)產(chǎn)健投朝入猴和妙營(yíng)朵銷賊費(fèi)恐用暢，咬但廳回通報(bào)漁相必對(duì)霉滯橡后9上執(zhí)市射銀艇行托競(jìng)貝爭(zhēng)跨力怪比言較1配0關(guān)丙于嘩A驚股畢銀黨行順估級(jí)值腳的趕討天論1謹(jǐn)1市若凈短率解法皺：焰反秘映責(zé)銀再行侄為既股將東采創(chuàng)近造誓價(jià)專值性的陜能鮮力美糧國(guó)價(jià)銀全行香獄港之銀嶺行1葛2市凡凈結(jié)率以法伸：呈反啊映辣銀隸行葵為丸股廢東月創(chuàng)余造訪價(jià)拌值學(xué)的究能犬力溪（燙續(xù)端）價(jià)戴值針評(píng)器價(jià)戶標(biāo)過準(zhǔn)輪的偏調(diào)貢整泛：市凱盈似率內(nèi)/極每桶股呢盈擺利岔增虧長(zhǎng)辱率撫市較凈名率曾/咬凈女資暈產(chǎn)唇收吃益做率理組論杰基朝礎(chǔ)繩：P根/困B凈=R破O蜻E*叨d赤/發(fā)(羊r蒙-用g生)市犧盈窯率略估腦值韻法繪的旬局舞限幟性再站融駛資瞎攤廚薄溫利仗潤(rùn)每廁股劣盈括利苗受模撥贊備伐影閱響助難痛以浪預(yù)脂測(cè)虧轎損堵銀正行體如偵何鉤定莖價(jià)鴉？1怨3討破論例A睜股忽銀腔行音估梢值賠必幣須鉆考燒慮什的渡因雞素正遼面融因生素：國(guó)來內(nèi)陣外夕股今權(quán)圈要脂求奸回駝報(bào)裙率秧不惱同航:孩A扛股承9決-麗9用.欲5杯%容v駕s派.蛋香嘴港薪1向2繩%估玻值紀(jì)應(yīng)強(qiáng)該膽反厘映瓣未椅來談幾土年騎盈感利幕快圍速結(jié)增勺長(zhǎng)明草確排的穗再蚊融儀資脂計(jì)栽劃麥對(duì)提每續(xù)股敏凈旱資版產(chǎn)瞇的墻提息升負(fù)甩面跑因膊素固：資樹產(chǎn)譜收弄益凡率減遠(yuǎn)掌低漠于濃國(guó)德外各同導(dǎo)業(yè)虎，廣銀先行吃真夢(mèng)實(shí)捆盈砍利采性崗差嚴(yán)威格礦的冰資約本止充泰足吊率康管雙理初使管銀圖行松的窩杠均桿猴比親率李將幕降汗低添，訴目傭前飾的洪高堆凈濁資汁產(chǎn)質(zhì)收抖益帖率吃存番在相下距降多趨悲勢(shì)銀這行川的茅高蹤蝶成陰長(zhǎng)唯階援段倦伴財(cái)隨棚銀客行瓜規(guī)個(gè)模待的蜻擴(kuò)胖大踐而昂結(jié)喬束叛，勾最唱終量步巧入市穩(wěn)同定會(huì)的脂成弄長(zhǎng)杠階部段1森4A冒股嗎銀扣行幸市烈凈京率控估顛值笛法工的符討禽論西框織架第獅一暑步崖：敲從坑銀陡行云經(jīng)析營(yíng)雜前僵景程確去定沃可故持欣續(xù)骨的四凈城資輪產(chǎn)團(tuán)收朱益懼率凈冒資籍產(chǎn)隆收求益晨率認(rèn)=拿資治產(chǎn)皺收蝦益陷率委*鴿杠潛桿租比焰率資炎產(chǎn)稀收鞏益率率計(jì)：們國(guó)棟際議水耽平啊1進(jìn)%湖左爺右籌，貨國(guó)咱內(nèi)特目掠前鳳0敬.確5倘%杠途桿忌比溫率哲：意國(guó)龍際棵水惑平趁8低-落1抗0秒%室，扣國(guó)育內(nèi)禁目數(shù)前陰2退.拋8營(yíng)1凍%1裹5A蒼股袖銀晃行箭市巨凈令率搬估層值瓣法隙的陪討歡論筐框恩架第起二鼠步賊：假確霉定兼穩(wěn)舉定給成映長(zhǎng)枝期龍的但市脾凈自率利水達(dá)平市宅凈以率苗=f(凈菠資哨產(chǎn)釀收舉益爆率害、然股漆權(quán)嚼要延求矮回楊報(bào)貌率在）1昨6A瀉股怒銀亡行附市剛凈盛率辟估連值攔法剝的渡討寄論礎(chǔ)框塌架第棍三袍步?。浩加?jì)乞算懂銀苗行畜目梁標(biāo)眼價(jià)隨格病區(qū)贏間1宅7幾矮點(diǎn)暑重頂要墨說批明估丸值羽結(jié)皇果昏對(duì)恐總鍬資摟產(chǎn)梅收鑒益塊率浙、妹杠寸桿亂比誼率境以虹及觸股該權(quán)祝要孔求蠢回罰報(bào)牛率懲高機(jī)度剛敏鑰感目沒標(biāo)案價(jià)傭格監(jiān)區(qū)者間蔑的接意蹤蝶義猛：拔將針當(dāng)庭前礙價(jià)珍格蹤蝶和眉區(qū)深間趴的慘上業(yè)限割和艱下各限饒進(jìn)蒙行醉比蟻較估，汪對(duì)聲價(jià)匠格燙潛舞在欺的禽上型漲字和此可時(shí)能舌的釣下虜?shù)Х诙戎嘤朽]直狡觀柴的閃認(rèn)研識(shí)我帖們窯充孝分宰考挖慮敢了蒸銀由行托的蜻增怠長(zhǎng)飯前緞景禿，長(zhǎng)并窯在什估嗚值料方熱面需給馳予岸了稠溢揉價(jià)程。間但岔從怪目稿前扎的煎價(jià)壺格悉水騰平狗來徐看愈，府銀扶行另股詠價(jià)判格蔬整伏體賓大蠻幅泰上勢(shì)漲侮的筆空雜間喪有大限1摟8影煙響慌銀吃行用股常的土近霧期喇因詠素1漫9I不、剃利頂率把走階勢(shì)獅：淘處垮于徐升憑息般周委期吳前往夜巡壽？2習(xí)0影盜響殃國(guó)廊債徑投選資影收森益咳率I際、而利興率憑走好勢(shì)膨：食處柱于撲升郵息溉周武期吳前贏夜萍？銀茅行誦在口動(dòng)窮態(tài)雕調(diào)庫整廳債肺券嚇投宮資仔組霸合響，悄加候大屢了卷短請(qǐng)期晶債語券稍的床配墾置拋，機(jī)犧霞牲附短禾期影的地收巧益巨能移力嬌以岸降煩低半利逝率煤風(fēng)噸險(xiǎn)長(zhǎng)瞞期憲債毫券鮮價(jià)妨格燒下責(zé)跌波，殿銀猶行躍可絹選蘿擇倦持丈有廈到檔期困而敬不瘡確韻認(rèn)歐損竭失另，榜但怎潛晝?cè)跐{的民投獎(jiǎng)資貢差恩價(jià)痕收倡入閥將姿減孩少壤。鐮流勢(shì)動(dòng)細(xì)性宜不鵲足冶的軍銀匹行暖變痛現(xiàn)豈國(guó)谷債解還蝕要盈承莊受逃一犧定賄虧煩損2肢1利細(xì)率鵝負(fù)賭缺稅口翼考儲(chǔ)驗(yàn)等生規(guī)息擋資撐產(chǎn)削凈仗利逼差I(lǐng)慘、宵利訓(xùn)率帝走嫩勢(shì)者：肥處股于佩升閱息藥周摔期奴前蔽夜霧？2姓2潛摘在棵融器資吐成鉤本獨(dú)和踏經(jīng)禾營(yíng)思費(fèi)薄用飄壓逼力墨加延大I鉆、督利拍率鐮走妨勢(shì)否：鈴處流于雜升啊息液周昨期解前響夜倉(cāng)？2沈3I腔I培、膏國(guó)稠有枝銀注行扒的壞再屑生紛：瞧不湊容歪忽置視模的葉競(jìng)謹(jǐn)爭(zhēng)辱力股倉(cāng)份仇制僅銀改行似的膝高寄速順成慨長(zhǎng)閑優(yōu)數(shù)勢(shì)版是葉否懼在畜弱勇化色？2落4I屆I河、寬國(guó)候有幟銀沫行桃的客再搜生振：本不顯容壩忽典視時(shí)的怒競(jìng)樹爭(zhēng)衛(wèi)力2扁5I更I蕩、鈴國(guó)啦有運(yùn)銀攝行求的升再卸生示：蝴不茂容切忽藏視嗎的勺競(jìng)詞爭(zhēng)賊力國(guó)請(qǐng)有這銀復(fù)行核在典零窄售彩銀彎行鬧和平中丘間鋼業(yè)磚務(wù)脫方隸面劍優(yōu)堆勢(shì)繡顯睜著2冒6I院I突、枕國(guó)你有肆銀窗行芝的夏再盯生繁：在不疊容挑忽暢視歸的毀競(jìng)方爭(zhēng)奮力對(duì)董A薯股煉上廁市港銀識(shí)行嚷潛黃在突沖抹擊經(jīng)榮營(yíng)顯方喘面股歸票亞供悔給改沃變君銀負(fù)行撥股屈供胳給吸的鳴稀廉缺疾性在遼銀優(yōu)行瘋業(yè)療中偷的剪高統(tǒng)市肚場(chǎng)搬占忙有逃率最對(duì)圖投持資芳者瓦吸惑引甜力控大基席本勒面穩(wěn)差鐘的習(xí)銀鐘行要面算臨凱估圍值奧壓匆力焰最辛大2寄7投秋資鑰建品議2騰8行浮業(yè)申中仁性對(duì)習(xí)經(jīng)糟濟(jì)識(shí)過粉熱統(tǒng)的擇擔(dān)祖心揭會(huì)泉導(dǎo)持致廢緊紅縮桐性脫貨霜幣地政芹策耀，唇對(duì)癢銀元行調(diào)股殲近曾期鬧形遷成賭壓諒力監(jiān)暗管獲政戚策饅的齡思誼路心是陽釋澆放犁銀凝行裝內(nèi)蒙在巴風(fēng)糊險(xiǎn)笨，建為哲長(zhǎng)閣期票健伯康似發(fā)痕