銀行業(yè)XXXX年度報(bào)告葉云燕

2010年12月凈息差上升保盈利增長，

抑制因素消除促估值回升葉云燕———銀行業(yè)2011年年度投資報(bào)告貨幣政策逐步收縮，資產(chǎn)增速趨降隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇基礎(chǔ)的穩(wěn)固和通脹壓力的上升，貨幣政策將作調(diào)整，由適度寬松轉(zhuǎn)向中性甚至偏緊。根據(jù)我們宏觀部的同事預(yù)計(jì)，明年新增信貸約6-7萬億，貸款余額增速12.6-14.7%，M2同比增長15-17%。若剔除2009-2010年的極端值，2011年的貸款趨勢值為5.5萬億。6-7萬億的目標(biāo)仍高于該水平。2011年貸款增速在12-15%之間2011年貸款增速在12-15%之間貨幣政策逐步收縮，資產(chǎn)增速趨降受整體新增信貸規(guī)模下降的影響，我們預(yù)計(jì)2011年，國有大銀行貸款增速降至11%，股份制約14%，城商行在17.5%左右貸款(YοY)2007200820092010E2011E工行11.99%12.09%25.86%20.86%10.79%建設(shè)13.85%15.72%27.40%16.84%11.22%農(nóng)行—11.29%33.05%18.58%12.13%中行17.84%15.80%50.41%17.07%11.32%交通19.10%19.95%38.71%19.72%11.54%大行平均15.70%14.97%35.09%18.61%11.40%華夏17.63%15.78%21.35%21.68%15.69%民生24.09%18.12%34.23%15.20%14.66%中信24.81%15.11%61.28%13.93%14.93%浦發(fā)19.54%27.18%33.65%18.50%14.87%招商19.11%30.31%36.24%20.17%14.03%深發(fā)展A35.29%34.58%23.90%19.36%14.43%興業(yè)23.50%24.67%41.22%22.01%14.85%光大18.21%14.03%40.32%16.03%15.03%股份制平均22.77%22.47%36.52%18.36%14.81%南京20.11%30.96%67.98%22.77%17.59%北京22.14%22.41%42.50%23.32%17.84%寧波29.79%34.50%66.65%22.84%17.79%城商行平均23.70%27.59%53.41%21.82%17.01%貨蓬幣妨政屠策姐逐弊步竊收究縮參，軟資雜產(chǎn)娛增儀速托趨芬降貸畢款熟增豈速斬的乏回構(gòu)落和，眉也飾將革帶屢動(dòng)騙生復(fù)息洽資各產(chǎn)歸規(guī)鐮模嬌增鋸速隸回兆落總，第預(yù)消計(jì)留上責(zé)市阿銀珍行謝平貍均貓生送息撐資結(jié)產(chǎn)澡規(guī)伶模畏增抖速豎在1趴1裝-調(diào)2綿0涼%之衡間生息資產(chǎn)(YοY)2007200820092010E2011E工行87.72%12.17%20.84%18.75%12.10%建設(shè)21.17%14.40%27.89%13.60%12.51%農(nóng)行-32.00%27.18%16.45%15.93%中行10.46%16.25%26.52%18.91%12.22%交通22.40%31.50%23.47%16.71%13.50%大行平均35.44%21.26%25.18%16.88%13.25%華夏33.43%23.56%15.72%24.22%14.83%民生32.60%14.63%33.93%25.27%12.90%中信42.99%17.46%49.53%9.30%15.83%浦發(fā)39.56%42.95%24.08%26.68%14.70%招商39.91%18.37%32.10%17.63%14.68%深發(fā)展A34.22%32.84%23.89%19.52%14.63%興業(yè)37.91%19.42%30.69%36.48%10.95%光大24.13%12.87%40.47%23.87%16.06%股份制平均35.59%22.76%31.30%22.87%14.32%寧波34.35%31.79%66.84%45.10%11.55%南京29.95%22.18%62.61%37.78%19.15%北京28.54%18.81%28.34%27.50%13.90%城商行平均30.95%24.26%52.60%36.79%14.87%加切息贊背奪景帆下煌，逃凈嚴(yán)息遞差明將手提傲升1從0月噴份萄，胸央科行3年腎來托首嚇次綠加頌息夠。抽盡駛管示定關(guān)期懷存乖款五利匠率瞎上差調(diào)成幅易度鼻高博于拾貸揀款吉，訴但動(dòng)是烘由露于遮活堂期甜存糾款幫利錯(cuò)率古保莖持典不泰動(dòng)止，正該源次壯加酬息喘成晃為4季洗度忙銀識行偷凈盼息雨差灶提看升棄的懂新獸驅(qū)蠅動(dòng)帝力哈：活勸期霜存本款仇占針銀估行涂存齊款貍的4博0尚%多熄，貼部研分貸銀美行龜甚禍至混超鹿過5溫0籃%。軍活暢期想存優(yōu)款規(guī)利彼率曉保黑持拘穩(wěn)孟定朗，落意脆味梁著街銀擾行株近旱半貓數(shù)磁的朽存熊款屈成測本蔑保拿持疫不芽變真。貸缸款遵重哪定裝價(jià)腿速桑度蒼快饅于攀存饞款粒，鄭因沈此軌貸優(yōu)款輩收再益肅率宏的液提寧高倆要沾先明于章存工款猾成宴本撐率非的盤上壓升吃。笑一抽般君而何言稻，青貸除款財(cái)?shù)淖６☉B(tài)價(jià)聲周兄期筋一某般永為斯三恨個(gè)召月肝，載按翁揭考貸鐮款統(tǒng)一機(jī)般他于腥次騙年1月?lián)舴葜胫睾粲喸醿r(jià)駕，額而爐定啟期證存獵款肺重遮定罰價(jià)國時(shí)畝間爽則叼在盞到山期藏日宋。從2喝0丸1血0年箏中精報(bào)以情稈況冊看什，把銀催行養(yǎng)業(yè)蒙的詞貸筐款爭久孕期閃普啞遍易被逼壓馬縮畏，兇未歇來拘可養(yǎng)通嬌過花拉得長陶貸床款斧久東期剃來供獲點(diǎn)取覺更念高證的愚收誓益湊率粱。隨父著C宜P果I的絞持罩續(xù)刺攀懂升盟，謎我肝們蟲相滾信度未柏來漿中軋國乓央府行株有勇望放繼放續(xù)寒加贈(zèng)息撞以弦對刷抗道通督脹均。更銀蒙河微證序券暈宏飄觀杰部道認(rèn)析為墳，你未重來1年淚內(nèi)投還跳將張有3次玻加串息奸，波每澆次凍上包調(diào)2打5負(fù)b宗p。加壤息環(huán)背壤景探下暈，紅凈波息已差李將訂提放升非衛(wèi)對眉稱使加徒息財(cái)不康足晴慮合所理屆凈黨息擺差咳的尼與景下遮述肺四逃項(xiàng)冰成廟本耍正蒙相駛關(guān)吃：獵運(yùn)靜營瘡成梯本演；叔信蜂用刊成手本倍；隱機(jī)愁會(huì)加成惱本俯；儀資睬本滔成覆本買。在喂目的前談中教國種的控形純勢劍下計(jì)，剝?nèi)枕?xiàng)設(shè)成箱本悅的絲式變書化草都伏要嗎求恥銀守行設(shè)獲晃取謙更偵高盲的潮凈紐奉息米差毅。N倚I元M與末一強(qiáng)級帖資江本惕充土足牲率鬧正端相店關(guān)N建I跪M與滅運(yùn)紡營峰成押本允正管相含關(guān)N普I滲M與錯(cuò)貸最款財(cái)不姨良延率許正威相斥關(guān)加腦息柔背跌景悔下攪，趕凈客息澤差拘將唱提襖升中被國芳的思銀澡行監(jiān)還震需攝要?jiǎng)e獲來得榮高廉于膚必倍要模水捧平遷的麻凈衰息瓦差畜，瞞用北以霉消租化疲歷饅史卵形符成拜的遵壞瞇賬穿包蜜袱堆。結(jié)哈論光：即當(dāng)恢前右的涉宏羞觀茂政必策寬（鬼更皮高足的柱法謀定慘存汪款嘉準(zhǔn)衡備腫金閑率雷和知具新有含一列定鉗公娃共扇職亞能絡(luò)性繡質(zhì)緩貸煮款喚發(fā)分放皺）訂和觀監(jiān)貢管副環(huán)構(gòu)境逝下貴（你更優(yōu)高俊的新資控本江充逮足株率莖）俯，河銀秧行期的炎“狂必竭要分凈瓜息朗差糕”饑水番平伴有冒提塌高蛇的吉要杜求唯。綿同探時(shí)縮慧歷初史微壞漿賬民的皺完崇全酬解罵決季，衡還轟要杠求牧銀燥行龜獲杜得椅高余于爺必賄要屑水殊平征的持凈新息巨差仇。衡因扔此迷，睬采振取敲對威銀抽行簽不趨利華的陳非杯對芬稱州加租息執(zhí)被虹采少用必的榆可城能傻性揮很擠小頓。銀行規(guī)模到期日債務(wù)人說明工行3130億元2020.6.30華融資產(chǎn)管理公司2010年6月30日到期，再度延期10年。利率2.25%，若華融公司不能足額支付利息，財(cái)政部將提供支持。建行2470億元2019.9.30信達(dá)資產(chǎn)管理公司2009年9月已到期，延期10年。利率2.25%，財(cái)政部與信達(dá)公司建立共管基金，用于保障信達(dá)債券的本金支付。信達(dá)債券利息的支付繼續(xù)由財(cái)政部給予支持。農(nóng)行6650億元2022.12.31財(cái)政部年率3.3%，償還資金來源于財(cái)政部從農(nóng)行所獲得的所得稅、現(xiàn)金股利、減持股份收入、不良資產(chǎn)處置所得凈現(xiàn)金。截至2010年中期，余額降至6012億元。中行1600億元2020.6.30東方資產(chǎn)管理公司2010年6月30日到期，延期10年。利率2.25%。財(cái)政部承諾對債券本息給予資金支持。合計(jì)13850億元還款均有國家信用擔(dān)保，但實(shí)際現(xiàn)金流仍來自四大行加滿息凱背溉景縣下強(qiáng)，毒凈攻息永差脖將航提秒升我糕們撲保劈燕守格假罷設(shè)錘，改未動(dòng)來積基股準(zhǔn)第利朗率織僅免對閘稱與性僵上幅調(diào)1次著，葛幅務(wù)度峰為2剝5深b破p，串測顆算暮出灑上驗(yàn)市鵝銀甚行脫平緞均腎凈噸息典差乘有掠望蛇提浙升1烤0洽b陡p。如配果袍加角息執(zhí)次爽數(shù)猾和充幅浸度作高憂于因我乒們睜的笑假碌設(shè)取，泛則的凈亂息考差供升出幅巧將今高摘于雅我規(guī)們庭的義保事守誘測毅算火結(jié)紐奉果舌。銀行NISNIM2007200820092010E2011E2007200820092010E2011E工行3.622.722.192.272.333.412.882.312.362.44建設(shè)3.173.122.422.412.503.273.252.522.492.59農(nóng)行3.243.282.262.412.523.053.232.342.482.61中行2.452.341.981.982.092.782.612.092.082.21交通2.862.692.142.392.472.942.822.252.492.60華夏2.622.401.932.292.432.672.522.032.392.54民生2.732.942.522.832.892.833.112.642.933.00中信2.933.102.332.502.713.073.312.452.552.72浦發(fā)3.012.702.192.462.543.102.852.302.572.67招商2.903.162.152.432.523.023.282.242.522.63深發(fā)展A2.982.922.422.442.603.133.082.482.512.69興業(yè)2.722.642.212.252.302.852.822.332.362.43光大2.412.811.942.202.282.472.922.012.282.38南京2.682.742.472.512.602.973.142.652.662.75北京2.222.752.232.252.362.342.932.342.352.47寧波3.073.142.652.382.533.233.412.762.472.62撥虹備比壓脖力低上闖升丙，室但淚已好在聯(lián)市巨場鈔預(yù)匹期枯之陪內(nèi)未革來暖的2銅-菠3年執(zhí)，軋甚蒼至雹更而長流時(shí)院間斷，克中禾國愛銀婦行紋業(yè)?？山夷軚|要芬面鴨臨解信本貸糞成棗本毒上鋪升叉的錘壓嘉力嬌，狗而養(yǎng)壓工力許主據(jù)要逗來魄自污：地妥方繁政北府咱融浮資吼平逆臺(tái)稿貸判款輛；2懼.悠5嫩%的散撥提貸仗比婆達(dá)臘標(biāo)添要喉求庸；貨部幣喝政慎策濁趨株緊氏可刷能最降離低盒企顏業(yè)亦的改還撤款銜能嘩力脖。但檢是命，演對小于累這備些蒙可簡能餐驅(qū)部動(dòng)洗信享貸術(shù)成肝本濱上躺升擺的勇因貿(mào)素騙，裝市尺場籮均濱已染有肉顯輪著糠的界預(yù)篩期禍。詞我狠們堵并緊不源認(rèn)瞇為棒會(huì)洲對土股焦價(jià)零造叉成魂進(jìn)詠一崇步敘的虜壓燦力幕。地麥方兔政偽府莖融枯資哨平往臺(tái)復(fù)貸煩款誓的月不行良敞率息有突望秧降鹿至鞏可鏟接盈受原水騎平平獨(dú)臺(tái)甩貸蹲款顏增盒速凡得指到歐了犧有串效影控弦制含?！把嬲V改探保碧全煌”洋化叔解輔已口發(fā)籌放敵的騙平盞臺(tái)搬貸敲款喝風(fēng)市險(xiǎn)乞。改長進(jìn)裁還沿款器方改式國利故于孤降掠低抽平瓜臺(tái)忌貸厚款伶的縮慧長虧期緩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)險(xiǎn)領(lǐng)。2島.我5示%的旁撥/貸豎比扇達(dá)利標(biāo)普期殃限穗的復(fù)緩纏沖值將院舒誓緩塵對沈盈池利質(zhì)的旗壓姨力企斷業(yè)絲式還老貸斧能他力家尚投未蓮見憲顯仍著噴不合利魔變顛化丑。財(cái)違務(wù)市狀故況未表插現(xiàn)恒穩(wěn)們健顧，緊負(fù)沉債妻比扮率對、濕償輩債踏能蘋力鈴均卵保均持傻良身好識勢狀頭寇，渣未潛表晨現(xiàn)撤出盆惡究化稻的仆跡扭象嫂。上胳市巾銀彈行亭盈貍利圾穩(wěn)姨定倦增武長我室們的預(yù)騾計(jì)傍上練市稍銀蓬行拉整礦體婦保極持1提5渠%的培平阿均耳增智速故。邀中六小就銀甘行權(quán)獲躺益冤于壟存欄、改貸瞞款繞規(guī)閑模僑的歉快叉速世增沒長輪，私有瓜望蓮獲濫得貫更兇高扮速務(wù)的善成親長翻。股票簡稱每股收益每股撥備前利潤每股凈資產(chǎn)凈利潤增速%08A09A10E11E12E08A09A10E11E12E08A09A10E11E12E08A09A10E11E12E工商銀行0.330.390.470.550.630.600.570.680.810.931.812.022.362.703.0836.316.126.816.815.7建設(shè)銀行0.400.460.540.640.740.730.700.800.941.081.992.382.823.213.6734.115.326.617.616.5中國銀行0.250.320.360.420.490.520.490.550.670.771.842.032.292.773.0713.0027.225.016.916.4農(nóng)業(yè)銀行0.200.250.280.360.440.400.440.460.580.711.121.321.631.842.1117.626.337.530.424.0交通銀行0.580.610.690.810.910.971.001.121.331.532.963.344.014.615.2838.65.829.017.512.4浦發(fā)銀行2.211.501.371.651.903.372.312.042.502.957.367.708.569.9411.51127.65.649.020.514.7華夏銀行0.620.751.211.651.941.791.642.352.963.485.496.067.148.5710.2146.122.460.536.118.1民生銀行0.420.540.620.740.840.900.941.031.241.432.863.953.944.665.4724.553.537.318.814.1招商銀行1.430.951.311.551.832.151.301.842.172.565.414.856.417.649.0838.3-13.555.618.317.4中信銀行0.340.370.540.630.760.620.560.800.941.132.442.633.083.584.1860.77.546.417.819.8深發(fā)展A0.201.621.842.232.652.622.492.743.434.115.286.599.7011.7414.17-76.8719.327.221.319.2光大銀行0.260.230.310.400.470.510.390.470.580.681.181.442.002.362.7745.14.561.730.218.6興業(yè)銀行2.282.662.963.594.163.483.554.195.165.969.8011.9215.4718.4721.9132.616.733.621.115.9北京銀行0.870.901.201.391.601.391.261.652.062.455.436.037.058.209.5361.84.032.715.815.3南京銀行0.790.840.811.051.191.211.211.151.501.806.156.556.467.358.3360.16.057.529.212.7寧波銀行0.530.580.800.981.170.720.871.041.351.613.523.905.526.337.3240.09.457.523.319.0行看業(yè)何估鑼值杠偏稈低課，啟給績予息推詢薦咬評貍級當(dāng)淘前天股茄價(jià)辟下醬，餓上岸市匠銀說行忙對菠應(yīng)2省0魚1邀0年P(guān)址B為1晴.策7某4維x，廉其形中冷國狡有逢大案銀業(yè)行僚僅肢有1堂.稿6深7骨x，棉股胞份權(quán)制胖銀流行存在沸平奧均周為1辭.交7橡1縱x，駝其兔中失民扮生屑銀綿行表擁少有稍超婦低度的她估朋值仆。冒城惑商盲行潤估昌值壇平蝴均1鈴.朋9稈6祖x股票簡稱PEPBP/PPOPROAE%投資評級08A09A10E11E12E08A09A10E11E12E08A09A10E11E12E08A09A10E11E12E工商銀行15.113.010.79.27.92.772.482.121.851.628.398.837.356.195.3519.420.121.821.521.8謹(jǐn)慎推薦建設(shè)銀行12.110.58.87.56.52.402.011.701.491.306.596.856.015.074.4420.920.921.421.121.5謹(jǐn)慎推薦中國銀行13.310.49.27.96.71.801.641.451.201.086.426.716.054.934.3014.216.417.516.716.8謹(jǐn)慎推薦農(nóng)業(yè)銀行13.510.79.77.56.02.402.031.651.451.276.736.125.784.603.79-23.520.520.520.722.5謹(jǐn)慎推薦交通銀行10.09.48.47.16.31.951.731.441.251.095.955.775.164.343.7820.819.519.918.818.4中性浦發(fā)銀行5.98.89.67.96.91.781.701.531.321.143.905.696.425.254.4635.824.120.617.917.7推薦華夏銀行18.815.49.67.06.02.111.911.621.351.136.487.064.923.913.3315.213.018.321.020.7推薦民生銀行12.49.58.37.06.21.811.311.321.110.955.775.535.034.193.6215.217.117.217.216.6謹(jǐn)慎推薦招商銀行9.514.210.38.77.42.512.792.111.781.496.3210.427.396.265.3028.621.224.522.121.8謹(jǐn)慎推薦中信銀行16.615.410.58.97.52.312.151.831.581.359.1710.147.096.005.0114.814.518.819.019.5謹(jǐn)慎推薦深發(fā)展A86.010.59.37.66.43.222.581.751.451.206.496.836.214.964.144.227.323.620.820.5謹(jǐn)慎推薦光大銀行14.916.912.79.78.23.292.691.931.641.407.5710.048.186.625.6725.318.819.218.318.4謹(jǐn)慎推薦興業(yè)銀行10.89.38.36.95.92.512.061.591.331.127.086.945.884.774.1325.924.523.321.120.6謹(jǐn)慎推薦北京銀行14.213.610.38.97.72.272.041.751.501.298.839.817.495.995.0417.915.818.418.218.1謹(jǐn)慎推薦南京銀行14.914.014.511.29.91.921.801.821.601.429.739.7010.267.856.5413.713.215.515.215.1謹(jǐn)慎推薦寧波銀行23.821.816.012.910.93.613.262.302.011.7417.5714.6012.279.437.8815.815.717.916.617.1推薦行毒業(yè)搶估者值蘆偏會(huì)低列，激給燃予將推便薦撞評括級若矩不肝考趴慮但中禿國竊經(jīng)投濟(jì)殖的揉增挺長崗帶脹來耗的味銀棟行乳業(yè)勾成王長距性糾，描我留們歷以旅一填階供段D道D法M模腔型圓，苦估蘇算纏出礙中穴國煌銀扔行彈業(yè)魚的謹(jǐn)長慘期渣合鐘理P這B在1鹽.盲8嚷x欣-憐2役.蟲2記x之離間遠(yuǎn)。若瓦考雪慮燒到絡(luò)未壇來3居-繁5年猴，膊中論國形經(jīng)世濟(jì)正仍巧處傻于竿快嬌速踏增咸長較期距，跪銀垮行這業(yè)分仍帖具原有悉很樓好衛(wèi)的榴成粗長鼠能呢力舉，堪其瓦估嚇值局還礎(chǔ)應(yīng)尺在廊上這述挑水峰平利上姐享虛受協(xié)一廉定可的茅溢破價(jià)饞。但通是得，憂即紗使江與戶上脂述水保毒守翁估猶算覆值潛相基比攏，吉上航市提銀油行痕當(dāng)甩前1咱.釋7暴x的