excel股票估值-公司估值模型

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,一般情景預(yù)測,,,,,,,,

,公司名稱,久聯(lián)發(fā)展,代碼,002037,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,

,分析日期,2006/05/29,流通A股,"4,000.00",流通B股,0.00,流通H股,0.00,

,總股本,"11,000.00",A股股價,6.03,B股股價,0.00,H股股價,0.00,

,,,,,,,,,,

,Word模板指標(biāo)輸出,2004A,2005A,2006E,2007E,2008E,,,

,主營收入（萬元）,"39,827.00","47,847.00","53,092.40","62,408.39","75,287.30",,,

,主營收入增長率,15.66%,20.14%,10.96%,17.55%,20.64%,,,

,EBITDA（萬元）,"5,792.00","7,869.00","11,598.73","15,778.87","19,873.37",,,

,EBITDA增長率,19.60%,35.86%,47.40%,36.04%,25.95%,,,

,凈利潤（萬元）,"3,068.00","3,522.00","5,826.70","8,491.50","11,183.29",,,

,凈利潤增長率,0.39%,14.80%,65.44%,45.73%,31.70%,,,

,ROE,7.36%,8.56%,13.23%,17.59%,20.76%,,,

,EPS（元）,0.279,0.320,0.530,0.772,1.017,,,

,P/E,21.62,18.83,11.38,7.81,5.93,,,

,P/B,1.59,1.61,1.51,1.37,1.23,,,

,EV/EBITDA,7.42,5.86,3.99,2.81,1.97,,,

,,,,,,,,,,

,估值結(jié)果匯總,,,,,,,,

,估值方法,估值結(jié)果,估值區(qū)間,,,敏感度分析區(qū)間,,,

,FCFF,17.20,15.55,－,21.29,貼現(xiàn)率±1%，長期增長率±1%,,,5.74

,FCFE,9.27,8.49,－,10.89,貼現(xiàn)率±1%，長期增長率±1%,,,2.39

,DDM,6.26,5.68,－,7.49,貼現(xiàn)率±1%，長期增長率±1%,,,1.80

,APV,15.70,13.28,－,17.75,貼現(xiàn)率±1%，長期增長率±1%,,,4.47

,AE,9.87,9.31,－,11.04,貼現(xiàn)率±1%，長期增長率±1%,,,1.73

,EVA,13.20,12.01,－,16.15,貼現(xiàn)率±1%，長期增長率±1%,,,4.13

,,,,,,,,,,

,,2003,2004,2005,2006E,2007E,2008E,,

,EBIT,"4,843.00","5,028.00","6,641.00","9,647.42","13,480.62","17,311.65",,

,EBITDA,"4,843.00","5,792.00","7,869.00","11,598.73","15,778.87","19,873.37",,

,所得稅率,20.01%,22.62%,26.14%,24.38%,24.38%,24.38%,,

,NOPLAT,"3,873.71","3,890.90","4,905.07","7,295.62","10,194.39","13,091.51",,

,IC,"18,700.00","21,897.00","25,786.00","30,293.13","34,018.19","36,013.18",,

,Ve,"42,210.00","66,330.00","66,330.00","66,330.00","66,330.00","66,330.00",,

,Vd,"8,800.00","6,750.00","8,340.00","11,721.45","15,297.29","17,779.26",,

,WACC,9.20%,9.69%,9.57%,9.34%,9.11%,8.96%,,

,EV,"44,977.00","42,961.00","46,077.00","46,323.84","44,332.51","39,118.15",,

,,,,,,,,,,

,業(yè)績表現(xiàn),2003,2004,2005,2006E,2007E,2008E,,

,收入增長率,,15.66%,20.14%,10.96%,17.55%,20.64%,,

,凈利潤增長率,,0.39%,14.80%,65.44%,45.73%,31.70%,,

,EBITDA增長率,,19.60%,35.86%,47.40%,36.04%,25.95%,,

,EBIT增長率,,3.82%,32.08%,45.27%,39.73%,28.42%,,

,主營業(yè)務(wù)利潤率,33.99%,29.60%,35.17%,37.68%,41.12%,42.46%,,

,EBITDAMargin(%),,17.60%,25.90%,71.10%,44.87%,31.79%,,

,ROE,22.94%,7.36%,8.56%,13.23%,17.59%,20.76%,,

,ROIC,20.72%,17.77%,19.02%,24.08%,29.97%,36.35%,,

,ROIC－WACC,11.52%,8.08%,9.45%,14.75%,20.86%,27.39%,,

,,,,,,,,,,

,價值比率,2003,2004,2005,2006E,2007E,2008E,,

,P/E,21.70,21.62,18.83,11.38,7.81,5.93,,

,EV/收入,1.31,1.08,0.96,0.87,0.71,0.52,,

,EV/EBITDA,9.29,7.42,5.86,3.99,2.81,1.97,,

,EV/EBIT,9.29,8.54,6.94,4.80,3.29,2.26,,

,EV/NOPLAT,11.61,11.04,9.39,6.35,4.35,2.99,,

,EV/IC,2.41,1.96,1.79,1.53,1.30,1.09,,

,P/B,3.17,1.59,1.61,1.51,1.37,1.23,,

,DividendYield(%),0.00%,0.00%,5.80%,4.39%,6.40%,8.43%,,

,,,,,,,,,,

,每股指標(biāo),2003,2004,2005,2006E,2007E,2008E,,

,報表EPS,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.53,0.77,1.02,,

,經(jīng)常性EPS,,,,,,,,

,每股紅利,0.00,0.00,0.35,0.26,0.39,0.51,,

,每股經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流,,,,0.80,1.05,1.29,,

,每股凈資產(chǎn),1.90,3.79,3.74,4.00,4.39,4.90,,

,,,,,,,,,,

,流動性,2003,2004,2005,2006E,2007E,2008E,,

,凈負(fù)債/權(quán)益,0.21,(0.56),(0.49),(0.45),(0.46),(0.51),,

,總負(fù)債/總資產(chǎn),50.37%,24.35%,30.28%,34.06%,35.87%,36.39%,,

,流動比率,1.20,2.97,2.13,1.99,1.92,1.99,,

,速動比率,1.11,2.81,1.98,1.87,1.80,1.87,,

,,,,,,,,,,

,輸出到Word模板中的三張表（輸出2004-2008年）,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,

,利潤表（萬元）,2004,2005,2006E,增長率%,2007E,增長率%,2008E,增長率%

,主營業(yè)務(wù)收入,"39,827.00","47,847.00","53,092.40",10.96%,"62,408.39",17.55%,"75,287.30",20.64%

,主營業(yè)務(wù)利潤,"11,387.00","16,320.00","19,455.81",19.21%,"25,018.84",28.59%,"31,191.28",24.67%

,其他業(yè)務(wù)利潤,220.00,186.00,50.00,-73.12%,50.00,0.00%,100.00,100.00%

,營業(yè)費(fèi)用,"1,194.00","1,576.00","1,670.23",5.98%,"1,963.31",17.55%,"2,368.46",20.64%

,管理費(fèi)用,"5,385.00","8,289.00","8,188.16",-1.22%,"9,624.92",17.55%,"11,611.16",20.64%

,財務(wù)費(fèi)用,213.00,77.00,144.53,87.70%,277.11,91.74%,354.18,27.81%

,營業(yè)利潤,"4,815.00","6,564.00","9,502.89",44.77%,"13,203.50",38.94%,"16,957.48",28.43%

,投資收益,(55.00),(38.00),0.00,N/A,0.00,N/A,0.00,N/A

,利潤總額,"4,833.00","6,450.00","9,472.89",46.87%,"13,173.50",39.07%,"16,927.48",28.50%

,凈利潤,"3,068.00","3,522.00","5,826.70",65.44%,"8,491.50",45.73%,"11,183.29",31.70%

,NOPLAT,"3,890.90","4,905.07","7,295.62",48.74%,"10,194.39",39.73%,"13,091.51",28.42%

,,,,,,,,,,

,資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表（萬元）,2004,2005,2206E,增長率%,2007E,增長率%,2008E,增長率%

,流動資產(chǎn),"43,008.00","42,714.00","48,406.13",13.33%,"56,926.18",17.60%,"68,660.26",20.61%

,貨幣資金,"30,119.00","28,593.00","31,727.61",10.96%,"37,294.78",17.55%,"44,991.11",20.64%

,短期投資,0.00,0.00,0.00,N/A,0.00,N/A,0.00,N/A

,應(yīng)收帳款,"6,130.00","5,831.00","7,321.00",25.55%,"10,836.00",48.01%,"13,072.18",20.64%

,其他應(yīng)收款,"1,800.00","1,710.00","1,897.46",10.96%,"1,897.46",0.00%,"2,690.69",41.80%

,存貨,"2,382.00","3,146.00","3,083.33",-1.99%,"3,424.08",11.05%,"4,036.63",17.89%

,長期投資,489.00,489.00,598.00,22.29%,588.00,-1.67%,588.00,0.00%

,固定資產(chǎn),"9,915.00","18,951.00","23,456.88",23.78%,"26,615.83",13.47%,"27,511.31",3.36%

,無形資產(chǎn),"7,070.00","4,572.00","4,114.80",-10.00%,"3,657.60",-11.11%,"3,200.40",-12.50%

,總資產(chǎn),"60,482.00","66,895.00","77,174.81",15.37%,"88,269.61",14.38%,"100,314.97",13.65%

,無息負(fù)債,"7,730.00","11,667.00","12,566.08",7.71%,"14,368.64",14.34%,"16,722.69",16.38%

,有息負(fù)債,"6,750.00","8,340.00","11,721.45",40.54%,"15,297.29",30.51%,"17,779.26",16.22%

,少數(shù)股東權(quán)益,"4,063.00","5,515.00","6,851.94",24.24%,"8,322.58",21.46%,"9,940.28",19.44%

,股東權(quán)益,"41,692.00","41,122.00","44,035.35",7.08%,"48,281.10",9.64%,"53,872.75",11.58%

,凈營運(yùn)資本,"28,528.00","22,707.00","24,118.61",6.22%,"27,260.25",13.03%,"34,158.31",25.30%

,投入資本IC,"21,897.00","25,786.00","30,293.13",17.48%,"34,018.19",12.30%,"36,013.18",5.86%

,,,,,,,,,,

,現(xiàn)金流量表（萬元）,2004,2005,2006E,增長率%,2007E,增長率%,2008E,增長率%

,凈利潤,"3,068.00","3,522.00","5,826.70",65.44%,"8,491.50",45.73%,"11,183.29",31.70%

,折舊攤銷,764.00,"1,228.00","1,951.32",58.90%,"2,298.25",17.78%,"2,561.72",11.46%

,凈營運(yùn)資金增加,"25,199.00","(5,821.00)","1,411.61",N/A,"3,141.64",122.56%,"6,898.06",119.57%

,經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)金流,"1,372.00","4,894.00","8,801.04",79.83%,"11,514.19",30.83%,"14,160.18",22.98%

,投資活動產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)金流,"(3,986.00)","(1,156.00)","(5,990.00)",N/A,"(5,000.00)",N/A,"(3,000.00)",N/A

,融資活動產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)金流,"4,458.00","(4,756.00)",323.57,N/A,(947.02),N/A,"(3,463.84)",N/A

,現(xiàn)金凈增（減）,"1,844.00","(1,018.00)","3,134.61",N/A,"5,567.17",77.60%,"7,696.34",38.25%

,,,,,,,,,,

,指標(biāo)說明：,,,,,,,,

EV=股權(quán)價值+債權(quán)價值—現(xiàn)金,,,,,,,,

EBITDA＝EBIT＋折舊＋攤銷,,,,,,,,

,EBIT＝營業(yè)利潤＋財務(wù)費(fèi)用,,,,,,,,

,NOPLAT＝EBIT×（1－所得稅率）＝EBIT－所得稅（只考慮核心業(yè)務(wù)，扣除非經(jīng)常性損益）,,,,,,,,

,IC（investedcapital）＝股東權(quán)益＋長期借款＋短期借款＋應(yīng)付債券＋少數(shù)股東權(quán)益－現(xiàn)金－短期投資－長期投資,,,,,,,,

,ROIC＝NOPLAT/IC×100％,,,,,,,,

,OPFCF＝EBITDA－稅收－凈資本性支出－營運(yùn)資本的增加,,,,,,,,

,WACC＝[(Ke×Ve)＋（Kd×Vd）]/(Ve＋Vd),,,,,,,,

,Kd＝債務(wù)成本＝平均債務(wù)利率（1－稅率）＝（短期借款×短期借款利率＋長期借款×長期借款利率＋長期應(yīng)付債券×長期應(yīng)付債券利率）/（長期借款＋長期應(yīng)付債券）×（1－所得稅率）,,,,,,,,

,Ve＝股本價值＝股價×總股本（H股、B股按各自股價×匯率轉(zhuǎn)換為人民幣計算，非流通股按A股計算）,,,,,,,,

,Vd＝債務(wù)價值＝短期借款＋長期借款＋應(yīng)付債券,,,,,,,,

,Ke＝Rf+β(Rm－Rf),,,,,,,,

,營運(yùn)資本＝流動資產(chǎn)－流動負(fù)債,,,,,,,,

,公司自由現(xiàn)金流FCFF＝EBIT×（1-所得稅率）＋折舊－資本支出－非現(xiàn)金性流動資本變化,,,,,,,,

,股權(quán)資本自由現(xiàn)金流FCFE＝稅前利潤×（1-所得稅率）＋折舊－資本支出－非現(xiàn)金性流動資本變化＋新增債務(wù)－債務(wù)償還,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,

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excel股票估值-公司估值模型

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