中國房地產(chǎn)市場形勢總結(jié)7100字

20xx年中國房地產(chǎn)市場形勢總結(jié)7100字

一、20xx年中國房地產(chǎn)市場形勢總結(jié)1.政策環(huán)境：多輪調(diào)整促房地產(chǎn)市場化轉(zhuǎn)型，深化改革建立長效機(jī)制推進(jìn)穩(wěn)增長20xx年我國房地產(chǎn)市場步入調(diào)整期，各地商品住宅庫存量高企，對市場預(yù)期的轉(zhuǎn)變進(jìn)一步影響了整體新開工節(jié)奏，房地產(chǎn)投資增速明顯下滑。在此背景下，中央政策以“穩(wěn)”為主，更關(guān)注民生保障和頂層制度設(shè)計(jì)，并通過貨幣政策調(diào)整、戶籍改革、棚戶區(qū)改造等長效機(jī)制保障合理購房需求；各地方政府則靈活調(diào)整，限購、限貸手段逐步退出，行政干預(yù)趨弱，并通過信貸、公積金、財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼多輪政策調(diào)整刺激住房需求，加快庫存去化，穩(wěn)定住房消費(fèi)。PartOne—2014Chinarealestatemarketsituationsummary1.Policyenvironment:wavesofadjustmentsstimulatedthemarketmodetransformation;along-termmechanismofdeepeningreformacceleratedasteadygrowth?2014,asanadjustmentyearofChinarealestimatemarket,holdahighresidentialcommodityinventory,whichchangedmarketexpectationsandaffectedthewholeconstructionpace.Thisleadasignificantdeclineonrealestateinvestment.?Thecentralgovernmentdecideda"steady"strategy,focusingonpeople'slivelihoodsecurity,designingaseriesoflong-termmechanismssuchasmonetarypolicyadjustment,householdregistrationreformandtransformationofshantytowns,inordertoprotectthereasonablehousingdemand?Accordingly,localgovernmentstookflexibleactionssuchascredit,providentfundandfinancialsubsidytoaffectthedecliningtrendandaccelerateinventoryconsumption.2.新房：百城價(jià)格連續(xù)下跌，重點(diǎn)城市供大于求，房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資增速創(chuàng)五年來新低價(jià)格方面，百城價(jià)格指數(shù)自5月起連續(xù)8個(gè)月下跌，四季度跌幅收窄，20xx年累計(jì)下跌2.69％；十大城市累計(jì)下跌0.61%，跌幅顯著低于百城。不同城市表現(xiàn)分化，保定、廈門20xx年累計(jì)漲幅超過10%，菏澤等9個(gè)城市累計(jì)跌幅超過10%。成交方面，50個(gè)主要城市累計(jì)成交整體下降10.7%，其中一線城市同比下降顯著，降幅達(dá)16.3%。供應(yīng)方面，近幾年大規(guī)模成交的住宅用地在20xx年密集入市，同時(shí)銷售業(yè)績壓力促使房企加大開盤規(guī)模，累積效應(yīng)推動供應(yīng)規(guī)模增長至近五年最高水平。全國來看，商品房銷售面積和銷售額同比下降，整體資金來源自20xx年以來首次同比下降，房屋新開工面積亦同比下降，開發(fā)投資額增速創(chuàng)5年來新低。2Newhousing:priceof100citiesdroppedcontinuously,thesupplyexceededthedemandsinkeycities,andinvestmentgrowthofrealestatedevelopmentratehitalowestrateinrecent5years?Pricewise,thepriceindexdeclinedin8consecutivemonthsasofMay2014.Itwastotally2.69%decliningratein2014.Tenlargestcitydropped0.61%,whichwaslessthan100cities.?Dealwise,theturnoverinthe50maincitiesdeclined10.7%totally,withadropof16.3%inthefirsttiercities.?Supplywise,residentiallandswhichweresoldintherecentfiveyearsfinallylaunchedtothemarketin2014intensively.Residentialcompanyfacedhighpressurewhichforcedthemtoincreasethesellingscale.Thisleadthehighestlevelofthesupplyscaleinrecent5years.?Nationwise,year-on-yeardeclinehappenedtocommercialhousingonareaandsalesvalue.Theoverallfundingsourcesdroppedforthefirsttimesince2006.Meanwhile,thenewhousingconstructionareaalsodecreasedandinvestmentgrowthratehitisalowestrateinrecent5years.二手房：十大城市量價(jià)均回落，二三季度尤為突出，四季度有所回升價(jià)格方面，20xx年十大城市二手住宅均價(jià)累計(jì)下跌1.05%，跌幅超過新房0.44個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，20xx年累計(jì)上漲18.98%；二季度以來二手房均價(jià)持續(xù)下跌，進(jìn)入四季度逐漸回升。成交方面，20xx年十大城市二手住宅總成交量為67.83萬套，同比下降31.07%，略高于20xx年成交水平；其中12月成交8.18萬套，為20xx年單月最高。Secondaryhousing:bothpriceandquantitiesfellintenbigcites—thisisparticularlyprominentinQ2andQ3whiletherewasasmallreboundinQ4.?Pricewise,averagepriceofsecond-handresidentialdropped1.05%inthetenlargestcityin2014,with0.44percentagedecreasingpointsmorethanthenewhousing?Dealwise,totalvolumeoftransactioninthetenlargestcityin2014is678300setswith31.07%year-on-yeardecline,slightlyhigherthan2012土地：整體供求同比大幅回落，一線城市熱度不減，二三線城市遇冷供求方面，20xx年以來庫存與資金壓力使房企拿地?zé)崆槌掷m(xù)下降，20xx年全國300個(gè)城市住宅用地推出及成交面積同比分別下降27.1%和33.1%；整體出讓金降幅超兩成，十大城市占比則顯著提高。價(jià)格方面，20xx年一線城市住宅用地成交樓面價(jià)同比大幅上漲55.1%，推動了土地市場整體成交均價(jià)的提升；而二三線城市土地市場趨冷，成交均價(jià)較為穩(wěn)定。Land:theoverallsupplyanddemanddeclinedcomparewithlastyear.Hotmarketinfirst-tiercitieswhileitturnscoldintiertwoandthreecities?Supplyanddemandsincewise,itshowedacontinueddeclineofthebiddingpassionfromresidentialcompaniessince2014,duetohighinventoryandfinancialpressure.In2014,residentiallandlaunchingandtransactionsizefell27.1%and33.1%respectivelyin300citiesnationwise;20%decreasehappenedonthewholeprojectssellingprices,withalotcaseshappenedintop10cities.?Pricewise,in2014,thefloorpriceincreased551%intieronecitiescomparedtolastyear,whichstimulatedtheincreaseofwholelandmarkettransactions.However,itisacoolingtrendintiertwoandtierthreecities,withstableaveragetransactionprice.3.企業(yè)：品牌房企業(yè)績穩(wěn)步增長，行業(yè)集中度顯著提升，融資渠道更趨多元業(yè)績方面，20xx年20家品牌房企銷售業(yè)績再創(chuàng)新高，銷售額同比增長17.6%，明顯高于行業(yè)平均水平，帶動行業(yè)集中度大幅提升。拿地方面，與20xx年大規(guī)模土地投資相比，20xx年品牌房企拿地節(jié)奏更顯謹(jǐn)慎，拿地銷售比保持在較低水平，布局熱衷一線城市。資金方面，由于20xx年資金沉淀和20xx年拿地投資大幅縮減，多數(shù)A股上市房企資金面較為穩(wěn)定，但有效負(fù)債率有所上升，短期負(fù)債的現(xiàn)金覆蓋率也呈趨勢性下降。融資方面，資本市場再融資開閘，中期票據(jù)監(jiān)管放松，上市房企股權(quán)融資、債券融資趨于活躍，融資渠道更趨多元。3:Enterprise:brandedenterprisesperformedwithsteadygrowth,concentrationrateoftheindustrywassignificantlylifted,andfinancingchannelsweremorediversified?Performancewise,in201420brandedrealestateenterpriseshitahigherrecordwith17.6%growthratecomparedtolastyear,whichwassignificanthigherthantheindustryaveragelevel.Thishelpedtodrivetheconcentrationrateofthewholeindustry.?“Biddingforland”wise,comparedwithlarge-scalelandinvestmentin2013,brandedenterprisestookmorecautiousin2014andmostlyfocusedintieronecity,?Fundswise,mostA-sharelaunchedenterpriseshadstablefundsbecauseofshrinkoflandinginvestment.However,theireffectivedebtrateincreasedandtheshort-termdebtcashcoverageshowedatrendofdecline.?Financingwise,capitalmarketrefinancingopenedandmedium-termnotesderegulated.Anactivetrendwasshowedonequityfinancingandbondfinancingofrealestatecompanies,andfinancingchannelsweremorediversified二、20xx年中國房地產(chǎn)市場趨勢展望1.宏觀環(huán)境：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將進(jìn)一步放緩，貨幣政策松緊適度宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)方面，中央經(jīng)濟(jì)會議指出保持經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行在合理區(qū)間，強(qiáng)調(diào)深化改革，做到“調(diào)速不減勢，量增質(zhì)更優(yōu)”，預(yù)計(jì)20xx年我國經(jīng)濟(jì)仍將在改革中平穩(wěn)前行，但由于內(nèi)外部因素影響，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將進(jìn)一步放緩。貨幣信貸方面，中央仍將繼續(xù)實(shí)施積極的財(cái)政政策和穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策，其中，“積極的財(cái)政政策要有力度，貨幣政策要更加注重松緊適度”，面對當(dāng)前不斷增加的經(jīng)濟(jì)下行和通縮壓力，20xx年出現(xiàn)降息降準(zhǔn)的可能性較大，但整體貨幣環(huán)境仍將穩(wěn)健。房地產(chǎn)政策方面，限購限貸等行政手段逐漸退出，調(diào)節(jié)回歸市場化，長效機(jī)制逐步建立，同時(shí)受不同城市市場分化影響，地方政策調(diào)整也更趨靈活。2.市場趨勢：利好政策疊加效應(yīng)將顯現(xiàn)，市場整體向好但增速減緩根據(jù)“中國房地產(chǎn)中長期發(fā)展動態(tài)模型”分析，宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)在結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型中增速略有放緩，貨幣環(huán)境穩(wěn)健，調(diào)控回歸市場化的背景下，預(yù)計(jì)20xx年全國房地產(chǎn)市場將呈現(xiàn)銷售面積小幅回升，新開工企穩(wěn)，投資增速仍存放緩壓力”的特點(diǎn)。成交方面，20xx年，降息降準(zhǔn)成為大概率事件，貨幣政策支持力度有望進(jìn)一步加大，購房需求或?qū)⒂行蜥尫?，商品房銷售面積有望小幅回升。預(yù)計(jì)20xx年全年商品房銷售面積為12.1-12.4億平米，同比增幅在0.5%-2.5%之間。供應(yīng)方面，資金面及預(yù)期向好促使新開工規(guī)模企穩(wěn)，開發(fā)投資增速仍存放緩壓力，預(yù)計(jì)20xx年全國新開工面積同比增幅介于0%-2%之間，全國房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資額同比增幅介于9.5%-11%之間。價(jià)格方面，目前市場庫存高企，20xx年市場仍以去庫存為主，預(yù)計(jì)全年價(jià)格保持平穩(wěn)或小幅下跌，但不同城市價(jià)格表現(xiàn)分化，一線城市和少數(shù)熱點(diǎn)二線城市存在上漲壓力。3.關(guān)注點(diǎn)：新常態(tài)下不同城市去化壓力更趨分化，房企變革應(yīng)對市場調(diào)整1)新常態(tài)：房地產(chǎn)市場由高速增長時(shí)期進(jìn)入平穩(wěn)增長的新常態(tài)展望20xx年乃至更長時(shí)期，中國房地產(chǎn)市場已經(jīng)告別過去高速增長的“黃金時(shí)代”，經(jīng)過市場調(diào)整后將步入平穩(wěn)增長的新常態(tài)階段，未來幾年房地產(chǎn)市場整體銷售規(guī)模增速將維持在2%-5%的增長區(qū)間。2)去庫存：消化庫存仍是20xx年市場主基調(diào)，不同城市去化壓力顯著分化20xx年房地產(chǎn)市場量價(jià)下行，庫存高企；去庫存將繼續(xù)成為20xx年市場的主基調(diào)，不同城市去化壓力顯著分化。北京、上海、廣州等城市潛在需求大，適當(dāng)刺激可迅速消化庫存，而深圳和廈門的供應(yīng)尚顯不足，這些城市皆存在量價(jià)反彈空間。以蘇州、佛山等為代表的二三線城市在明年降息降準(zhǔn)、地方加大購房財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼或契稅減免等政策預(yù)期下，市場需求或?qū)⒅鸩饺胧?，庫存?jīng)過一定時(shí)間的消化后有望恢復(fù)至合理水平。呼和浩特等城市早期開發(fā)力度較大但需求相對不足，庫存去化壓力顯著。以鄂爾多斯、營口為代表的三四線城市房地產(chǎn)市場面臨較嚴(yán)重的系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。3)謀變革：房企面臨變革壓力，深度挖掘客戶價(jià)值、整合多維資源應(yīng)對市場調(diào)整展望未來，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)將加快市場化轉(zhuǎn)型步伐，增長速度回歸理性平穩(wěn)。房企來自住宅開發(fā)業(yè)務(wù)的利潤將持續(xù)受到擠壓，需要根據(jù)自身業(yè)務(wù)特點(diǎn)和資源積累狀況積極進(jìn)行變革調(diào)整。對于大型品牌房企而言，其得益于早期的資產(chǎn)積累和市場地位，在未來市場中仍有較強(qiáng)的發(fā)展優(yōu)勢，可圍繞廣泛的客戶基礎(chǔ)深化業(yè)務(wù)、產(chǎn)品及服務(wù)的深層次挖掘，夯實(shí)長期穩(wěn)定增長的基礎(chǔ)。對于中等規(guī)模的企業(yè)來說，須更好的圍繞住房消費(fèi)市場日益多元化的需求，找準(zhǔn)自身定位，通過技術(shù)化、專業(yè)化、精細(xì)化發(fā)展提升品牌影響力并鑄就核心競爭力。對于多數(shù)小型房企而言，未來的市場空間會被進(jìn)一步擠壓，企業(yè)間的項(xiàng)目資源、資金資源整合加快，20xx年中小型房企的并購整合或?qū)⒉饺雽?shí)質(zhì)性階段。

＋20xx年中國房地產(chǎn)市場形勢總結(jié)發(fā)表于：2022.12.19來自：字?jǐn)?shù)：7171手機(jī)看范文一、20xx年中國房地產(chǎn)市場形勢總結(jié)1.政策環(huán)境：多輪調(diào)整促房地產(chǎn)市場化轉(zhuǎn)型，深化改革建立長效機(jī)制推進(jìn)穩(wěn)增長20xx年我國房地產(chǎn)市場步入調(diào)整期，各地商品住宅庫存量高企，對市場預(yù)期的轉(zhuǎn)變進(jìn)一步影響了整體新開工節(jié)奏，房地產(chǎn)投資增速明顯下滑。在此背景下，中央政策以“穩(wěn)”為主，更關(guān)注民生保障和頂層制度設(shè)計(jì)，并通過貨幣政策調(diào)整、戶籍改革、棚戶區(qū)改造等長效機(jī)制保障合理購房需求；各地方政府則靈活調(diào)整，限購、限貸手段逐步退出，行政干預(yù)趨弱，并通過信貸、公積金、財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼多輪政策調(diào)整刺激住房需求，加快庫存去化，穩(wěn)定住房消費(fèi)。PartOne—2014Chinarealestatemarketsituationsummary1.Policyenvironment:wavesofadjustmentsstimulatedthemarketmodetransformation;along-termmechanismofdeepeningreformacceleratedasteadygrowth?2014,asanadjustmentyearofChinarealestimatemarket,holdahighresidentialcommodityinventory,whichchangedmarketexpectationsandaffectedthewholeconstructionpace.Thisleadasignificantdeclineonrealestateinvestment.?Thecentralgovernmentdecideda"steady"strategy,focusingonpeople'slivelihoodsecurity,designingaseriesoflong-termmechanismssuchasmonetarypolicyadjustment,householdregistrationreformandtransformationofshantytowns,inordertoprotectthereasonablehousingdemand?Accordingly,localgovernmentstookflexibleactionssuchascredit,providentfundandfinancialsubsidytoaffectthedecliningtrendandaccelerateinventoryconsumption.2.新房：百城價(jià)格連續(xù)下跌，重點(diǎn)城市供大于求，房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資增速創(chuàng)五年來新低價(jià)格方面，百城價(jià)格指數(shù)自5月起連續(xù)8個(gè)月下跌，四季度跌幅收窄，20xx年累計(jì)下跌2.69％；十大城市累計(jì)下跌0.61%，跌幅顯著低于百城。不同城市表現(xiàn)分化，保定、廈門20xx年累計(jì)漲幅超過10%，菏澤等9個(gè)城市累計(jì)跌幅超過10%。成交方面，50個(gè)主要城市累計(jì)成交整體下降10.7%，其中一線城市同比下降顯著，降幅達(dá)16.3%。供應(yīng)方面，近幾年大規(guī)模成交的住宅用地在20xx年密集入市，同時(shí)銷售業(yè)績壓力促使房企加大開盤規(guī)模，累積效應(yīng)推動供應(yīng)規(guī)模增長至近五年最高水平。全國來看，商品房銷售面積和銷售額同比下降，整體資金來源自20xx年以來首次同比下降，房屋新開工面積亦同比下降，開發(fā)投資額增速創(chuàng)5年來新低。2Newhousing:priceof100citiesdroppedcontinuously,thesupplyexceededthedemandsinkeycities,andinvestmentgrowthofrealestatedevelopmentratehitalowestrateinrecent5years?Pricewise,thepriceindexdeclinedin8consecutivemonthsasofMay2014.Itwastotally2.69%decliningratein2014.Tenlargestcitydropped0.61%,whichwaslessthan100cities.?Dealwise,theturnoverinthe50maincitiesdeclined10.7%totally,withadropof16.3%inthefirsttiercities.?Supplywise,residentiallandswhichweresoldintherecentfiveyearsfinallylaunchedtothemarketin2014intensively.Residentialcompanyfacedhighpressurewhichforcedthemtoincreasethesellingscale.Thisleadthehighestlevelofthesupplyscaleinrecent5years.?Nationwise,year-on-yeardeclinehappenedtocommercialhousingonareaandsalesvalue.Theoverallfundingsourcesdroppedforthefirsttimesince2006.Meanwhile,thenewhousingconstructionareaalsodecreasedandinvestmentgrowthratehitisalowestrateinrecent5years.二手房：十大城市量價(jià)均回落，二三季度尤為突出，四季度有所回升價(jià)格方面，20xx年十大城市二手住宅均價(jià)累計(jì)下跌1.05%，跌幅超過新房0.44個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，20xx年累計(jì)上漲18.98%；二季度以來二手房均價(jià)持續(xù)下跌，進(jìn)入四季度逐漸回升。成交方面，20xx年十大城市二手住宅總成交量為67.83萬套，同比下降31.07%，略高于20xx年成交水平；其中12月成交8.18萬套，為20xx年單月最高。Secondaryhousing:bothpriceandquantitiesfellintenbigcites—thisisparticularlyprominentinQ2andQ3whiletherewasasmallreboundinQ4.?Pricewise,averagepriceofsecond-handresidentialdropped1.05%inthetenlargestcityin2014,with0.44percentagedecreasingpointsmorethanthenewhousing?Dealwise,totalvolumeoftransactioninthetenlargestcityin2014is678300setswith31.07%year-on-yeardecline,slightlyhigherthan2012土地：整體供求同比大幅回落，一線城市熱度不減，二三線城市遇冷供求方面，20xx年以來庫存與資金壓力使房企拿地?zé)崆槌掷m(xù)下降，20xx年全國300個(gè)城市住宅用地推出及成交面積同比分別下降27.1%和33.1%；整體出讓金降幅超兩成，十大城市占比則顯著提高。價(jià)格方面，20xx年一線城市住宅用地成交樓面價(jià)同比大幅上漲55.1%，推動了土地市場整體成交均價(jià)的提升；而二三線城市土地市場趨冷，成交均價(jià)較為穩(wěn)定。Land:theoverallsupplyanddemanddeclinedcomparewithlastyear.Hotmarketinfirst-tiercitieswhileitturnscoldintiertwoandthreecities?Supplyanddemandsincewise,itshowedacontinueddeclineofthebiddingpassionfromresidentialcompaniessince2014,duetohighinventoryandfinancialpressure.In2014,residentiallandlaunchingandtransactionsizefell27.1%and33.1%respectivelyin300citiesnationwise;20%decreasehappenedonthewholeprojectssellingprices,withalotcaseshappenedintop10cities.?Pricewise,in2014,thefloorpriceincreased551%intieronecitiescomparedtolastyear,whichstimulatedtheincreaseofwholelandmarkettransactions.However,itisacoolingtrendintiertwoandtierthreecities,withstableaveragetransactionprice.3.企業(yè)：品牌房企業(yè)績穩(wěn)步增長，行業(yè)集中度顯著提升，融資渠道更趨多元業(yè)績方面，20xx年20家品牌房企銷售業(yè)績再創(chuàng)新高，銷售額同比增長17.6%，明顯高于行業(yè)平均水平，帶動行業(yè)集中度大幅提升。拿地方面，與20xx年大規(guī)模土地投資相比，20xx年品牌房企拿地節(jié)奏更顯謹(jǐn)慎，拿地銷售比保持在較低水平，布局熱衷一線城市。資金方面，由于20xx年資金沉淀和20xx年拿地投資大幅縮減，多數(shù)A股上市房企資金面較為穩(wěn)定，但有效負(fù)債率有所上升，短期負(fù)債的現(xiàn)金覆蓋率也呈趨勢性下降。融資方面，資本市場再融資開閘，中期票據(jù)監(jiān)管放松，上市房企股權(quán)融資、債券融資趨于活躍，融資渠道更趨多元。3:Enterprise:brandedenterprisesperformedwithsteadygrowth,concentrationrateoftheindustrywassignificantlylifted,andfinancingchannelsweremorediversified?Performancewise,in201420brandedrealestateenterpriseshitahigherrecordwith17.6%growthratecomparedtolastyear,whichwassignificanthigherthantheindustryaveragelevel.Thishelpedtodrivetheconcentrationrateofthewholeindustry.?“Biddingforland”wise,comparedwithlarge-scalelandinvestmentin2013,brandedenterprisestookmorecautiousin2014andmostlyfocusedintieronecity,?Fundswise,mostA-sharelaunchedenterpriseshadstablefundsbecauseofshrinkoflandinginvestment.However,theireffectivedebtrateincreasedandtheshort-termdebtcashcoverageshowedatrendofdecline.?Financingwise,capitalmarketrefinancingopenedandmedium-termnotesderegulated.Anactivetrendwasshowedonequityfinancingandbondfinancingofrealestatecompanies,andfinancingchannelsweremorediversified二、20xx年中國房地產(chǎn)市場趨勢展望1.宏觀環(huán)境：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將進(jìn)一步放緩，貨幣政策松緊適度宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)方面，中央經(jīng)濟(jì)會議指出保持經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行在合理區(qū)間，強(qiáng)調(diào)深化改革，做到“調(diào)速不減勢，量增質(zhì)更優(yōu)”，預(yù)計(jì)20xx年我國經(jīng)濟(jì)