2023年糧食安全報告（英）-138正式版

EUROPEAN

COMMISSION

Brussels,4.1.2023

SWD(2023)4final

COMMISSIONSTAFFWORKINGDOCUMENT

Driversoffoodsecurity

EN EN

TableofContents

1.

Introduction

3

2.

Conceptualframeworkfortheanalysisofdriversoffoodsecurity

4

3.

Overviewofthemainelementsofthedriversidentified

7

3.1.

Biophysicalandenvironmentaldrivers

7

3.2.

Research,innovationandtechnology

11

3.3.

Economicandmarketdrivers

12

3.4.

Foodsupplychainperformance

17

3.5.

Politicalandinstitutionaldrivers

17

3.6.

Socio-culturaldrivers

18

3.7.

Demographicdrivers

19

4.

InterlinkagesbetweendriversoffoodsecurityintheEU

20

5.

Short-termandlong-termtrends

23

6.

Focusonkeydriversinlow-incomecountries

26

7.

Conclusions

29

8.

Analysisoftheindividualdrivers

32

8.1.

Climatechange

32

8.2.

Environmentalpollution

36

8.3.

Soilhealth

38

8.4.

Pestsanddiseases

42

8.5.

Biodiversity

47

8.6.

Research,innovationandtechnology

51

8.7.

Intensityofproduction

55

8.8.

Trade

57

8.9.

Speculationinagriculturalcommoditymarkets

61

8.10.

Energyprices

63

8.11.

Fertilisers

65

8.12.

Pesticideuse

67

8.13.

Availabilityofworkers

72

8.14.

Agriculturalandconsumerfoodprices

75

8.15.

Farmincome

77

1

8.16.Accesstofinance

78

8.17.Householdincome

80

8.18.Competinglandandcropuses

82

8.19.Supplychainperformance

86

8.20.Foodlossandwaste

88

8.21.Governanceandlegislativeframework

91

8.22.Conflict

93

8.23.Generationalrenewal

96

8.24.Foodchoices

98

8.25.Demographictrends

101

AnnexI:Synopsisreport-Stakeholderconsultations

104

References

109

2

1. Introduction

Todayfoodsecurityisattheforefrontofthepoliticalagenda,bothattheEUandgloballevels.EnsuringtheavailabilityandaccesstofoodforconsumersatreasonablepricesareobjectivessetoutinArticle39oftheTreatyontheFunctioningoftheEuropeanUnion(TFEU).However,theachievementoftheseobjectivescannotbetakenforgranted.

Foodsecuritysitsatthenexusofsociety,agriculturalproduction,climate,biodiversity,energy,health,technology,peaceandsecurity.Withoutfarmersandfishers,thereisnofoodonourtable.Assuch,ensuringafairstandardoflivingforthesecommunitiesisofparamountimportanceforfoodproduction.Withhighpressureontheglobalfoodsystem,andasfoodproductionispredominantlybasedonnaturalprocessesandyieldsareinherentlyuncertain,vulnerabilitiesbecomemorerelevantintimesliketheoneswearecurrentlylivingin.

Overtheyears,theCommonAgriculturalPolicy(CAP)hasplayedanimportantroleinmakingEUagricultureoneoftheworld'sleadingfoodproducers,whichinturnguaranteesthefoodsecurityfor450millionEuropeancitizensandcontributestoglobalfoodsecurity.Europeanfarmersarerespondingtocitizens'demandsregardingfoodsupply,safety,quality,andsustainability.Europeanfarmersarerespondingtocitizens'demandsregardingfoodsecurity,safety,quality,andsustainability.Infisheriesandaquaculture,theCommonFisheriesPolicy(CFP)aimstoensurethatfishingandaquacultureactivitiesaresustainableandcontributetoprovideEuropeanswithnutritionalfood.

AttheheartoftheEuropeanGreenDeal,includingtheFarmtoFork,theBiodiversityandotherstrategies,theEUsetoutalong-termstrategicvisiononhowtochangethewayweproduce,distribute,andconsumefood.Thisvisionaimsatfair,healthyandenvironmentally-friendlyfoodsystems,whilefurtherstrengtheningtheiroverallresilience.

Inrecentyears,theeffectsofclimatechangeandenvironmentaldegradationhaveputfoodsystems,includingagricultural,fisheriesandaquacultureproduction,underincreasingpressureallovertheworld.Foodsystemsbelongamongthemajordriversofclimatechangeandbiodiversityloss,andthesametime,foodproductionisamongthemostaffectedbythem.Inaddition,foodsystemscanprovideawealthofsolutionstothesechalleneges.

AgainstthebackdropoftheglobaleconomicdisruptionsstemmingfromtheCOVID-19pandemicandtheRussianinvasionofUkraine,tradeflowshavebeeninterrupted,andthishasnegativeimplicationsforthesupplyofkeyagriculturalcommoditiesandinputs.Thishasfurtherdestabilisedglobalfoodsystemsandintensifiedfoodinsecurityrisksandvulnerabilitiesacrosstheworld.

Thisstaffworkingdocumentaimsatanalysingthemaindriversaffectingfoodsecurityfromboththesupplyanddemandsides(1).Relyingonanevidence-basedapproach,thisdocumentprovidesafactualassessmentofthekeydriversandtheirinterlinkages,toinformtheongoingdebateintoday’scontext.Itlooksatshortandlongertermhorizonsandlinkagesbetweenthedrivers.Stakeholderviews,collectedthroughspecificconsultations,havebeentakenintoaccountintheanalysis.

(1) Thisdocumentdoesnotreplaceanyimpactassessmentassociatedtoanyspecificlegislativeproposal.

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TheEuropeanCommission’sCommunicationof23March2022on‘Safeguardingfoodsecurityandreinforcingtheresilienceoffoodsystems’putforwardanumberofshort-andmedium-termmeasurestosafeguardglobalfoodsecurity,whilesupportingEUfarmers,fishers,andconsumersmostaffectedbyRussia'sinvasionofUkraine.Amongotherthings,measuresincludesupportforafoodsecuritystrategyforUkraine,andforregionsandpopulationgroupsmostaffectedbyfoodinsecurity;asupportpackageofEUR500million,encompassingthemobilisationofthecrisisreserve;anamendedTemporaryCrisisFrameworkforStateaid;anexceptionaltemporaryderogationtoallowtheproductionofcropsforfoodandfeedpurposesonfallowland;thepossibilityforMemberStatestoreduceVATratesandencourageeconomicoperatorstocontainretailprices.

TheEU,togetherwithitsMemberStatesandtheEuropeanDevelopmentFinanceInstitutions,isrespondingtoshort-,medium-,andlonger-termfoodsecuritychallengesthroughaTeamEuropeapproachalongfourstrandsofaction:(i)asolidaritystrandtostepupemergencyaidandmacro-economicsupport;(ii)asustainableproductionstrandtostrengthenlocalfoodproductionsystemsandresilience;(iii)atradestrandtokeepmarketsopenandgetgrainsoutofUkraine,especiallyviaSolidarityLanesandsupporttotheUNandTurkey-ledBlackSeaGrainInitiative;and(iv)amultilateralstrandtoworkcloselywithinternationalpartners,notablytheUN.TheSolidarityLanesintitiativetogetherwiththeBlackSeaGraninitiativehasenabledtheexportofabove30Mtofcereals,oilseedsandrelatedproductsfromUkrainebetweenMayandNovember2022.

TheEUhaslaunchedmanyinitiativestosafeguardfoodsecurity,strengthentheresilienceoffoodsystems,andtoguaranteetheavailabilityofsupplies(2).ThisbringstangibleprogressinachievingtheUNSustainableDevelopmentGoal‘Zerohunger’(SDG2),whichfocusesonendinghungerandmalnutrition,increasingsustainableagriculturalproduction,andreducingitsenvironmentalimpactsamongotherthings.Moreover,theEUiscommittedtoachievingSDG14,aswellasconservingandsustainablyusingtheoceans,seas,andmarineresourcesbyimplementingtheCommonFisheriesPolicy.

2. Conceptualframeworkfortheanalysisofdriversoffoodsecurity

AttheWorldFoodSummitin1996,foodsecuritywasdefinedas‘whenallpeople,atalltimes,havephysicalandeconomicaccesstosufficient,safe,andnutritiousfoodthatmeetstheirdietaryneedsandfoodpreferencesforanactiveandhealthylife’(3).Thiswidelyaccepteddefinitionpointstofourdimensionsoffoodsecurity:

Foodavailabilityreferstotheavailabilityofsufficientquantitiesoffoodofappropriatequality,suppliedthroughdomesticproduction,importsorfoodaid.

(2)CommissionCommunication,‘Contingencyplanforensuringfoodsupplyandfoodsecurityintimesofcrisis’,COM(2021)689final;CommissionCommunication,‘Safeguardingfoodsecurityandreinforcingtheresilienceoffoodsystems’,COM(2022)133final;CommissionCommunication,‘TemporaryCrisisFrameworkforStateAidmeasurestosupporttheeconomyfollowingtheaggressionagainstUkrainebyRussia’,COM(2022)7945final;CommissionCommunication,‘Ensuringavailabilityandaffordabilityoffertilisers’,COM(2022)590final.

(3) FAO,Tradereformsandfoodsecurity,ConceptualizingtheLinkages,2003,Chapter2.Foodsecurity:

conceptsandmeasurement.

4

Foodaccessreferstoindividualshavingadequateresourcestoacquireappropriatefoodsforanutritiousdiet.

Utilisationrelatestoanindividual’snutritionalwell-beingreachedthroughadequatediet,cleanwater,sanitation,andhealthcare.

Stabilityistheconditionbywhichthedimensionsofavailability,accessandutilisationaresufficientlymet,andinwhichthewholesystemisstable,thusensuringthathouseholdsarefoodsecureatalltimes.Short-terminstabilitycanleadtoacutefoodinsecurity,andmedium-tolong-terminstabilitycanleadtochronicfoodinsecurity.Climatic,environmental,economic,social,andpoliticalfactorscanallbeasourceofinstability.

Recently(4),theHighLevelPanelofExpertsonFoodSecurityandNutritionoftheCommitteeonWorldFoodSecurityhighlightedtwoadditionaldimensions.Thefirstoneistheimportanceofagency,whichisthecapacityofthefoodsystem’sactorstomaketheirowndecisionsaboutfood.Thesecondissustainability,whichisthelong-termabilityoffoodsystemstoprovidefoodsecurityinawaythatdoesnotcompromisetheeconomic,social,andenvironmentalbasesthatgeneratefoodsecurityforfuturegenerations.

Sustainabilityisconsideredinthiswidelyaccepteddefinitionoffoodsecurity.Thementionof‘atalltimes’impliesnotonlyshort-terminstabilitiesinfoodsystems,butalsothelong-termdimension.Short-andlong-termdriversoffoodsecurityanditsintermediaryoutcomes,arehighlyinterlinked.Whilelong-termdriversdeterminetrends,short-termshocksarepartofthistrendandoftenbearlong-termconsequences.Long-termdriverscanthemselvescauseshorttermshocks–thedroughtsin2022areasadexample.Policyresponsestoshort-termshocksmustconsiderlong-termconsequencesandgoals.

FoodavailabilityisnotatriskintheEUtoday.TheEUislargelyself-sufficientforkeyagriculturalproductsandachievesastableoverallfoodexportsurplus.Itisamainwheatandbarleyexporter,andlargelyabletocoveritsownconsumptionneedsforotherstaplecrops,suchasmaizeandsugar.TheEUisalsolargelyself-sufficientforanimalproducts,includingdairyandmeat,withthenotableexceptionofseafood.

However,thecurrentfoodpriceinflation,estimatedat18%inOctober2022(5),endangersfoodaffordabilityforthemostvulnerablehouseholds.Asaresult,householdsspendalargershareoftheirbudgetsonfood,potentiallycompromisingthedietqualityiftheyswitchedtoproductsthatcontainmorecalorieswhilebeingpoorerinmicronutrients.Whilethemostsevereformsofhunger,includingundernourishment,arerareintheEU,self-reportedmoderateorseverefoodinsecurityintheEUincreasedbetween2019and2020.Thegrowingfoodpriceinflationhasmadethesituationworse,andaggravatestheincreasedpressureonhouseholds’incomes,alongsideenergycosts,fuelcosts,etc.

(4)HLPE.2020.Foodsecurityandnutrition:buildingaglobalnarrativetowards2030.AreportbytheHighLevelPanelofExpertsonFoodSecurityandNutritionoftheCommitteeonWorldFoodSecurity,Rome.

(5)EurostatHICP-monthlydata(annualrateofchange)

5

Globally,acutefoodinsecurityisincreasing(6)andaffectedupto222millionpeoplein53countries/territoriesinmid-2022.Thesituationislikelytodeterioratefurtherinmanycountriesand‘hungerhotspots’(7).Soaringfoodpricesareespeciallyaffectingthepooresthouseholdsindevelopingcountriesastheyoftenspendmorethan50%oftheirincomeonfood.Anestimated3.1billionpeople(42%oftheworldpopulation)couldnotaffordahealthydietin2020(8).Foodinsecurityincreaseshumanitarianneedsandfuelssocialunrest,instability,andconflict,andviceversa.Itcanalsoweakentherespectofhumanrightsandexacerbategenderinequality.

Figure1illustratestheconceptualframeworkusedforthisanalysisofthedriversoffoodsecuritywithintheEU.Itbuildsuponpreviouswork,inparticulartheHighLevelPanelofExperts’(9)conceptualframeworkoffoodsystemsfordietsandnutrition.

AsformulatedbytheFAO(10),asustainablefoodsystemdeliversfoodsecurityandnutritionforallinsuchawaythattheeconomic,social,andenvironmentalbasestogeneratefoodsecurityandnutritionforfuturegenerationsarenotcompromised.Asustainablefoodsystemshouldthusensureandcontributetoallelementsofenvironmental,social,andeconomicsustainability.Therearesevenmaincategoriesofdriversthataffecttheabilityoffoodsystemstodeliverhealthyandsustainabledietsforall,whileencompassingalltheelements(environment,people,inputs,processes,infrastructures,institutions,etc.)andactivitiesthatrelatetotheproduction,processing,distribution,preparationandconsumptionoffood,andtheoutputs.Thesearebiophysicalandenvironmentaldrivers;researchandinnovation,andtechnology;economicandmarketdrivers;foodvaluechainperformance;politicalandinstitutionaldrivers;socio-culturaldrivers,anddemographicdrivers.ThisanalysisfocussesonthedriversthatareespeciallyrelevantforensuringtheEU’sfoodsecuritytodayandtomorrow.

Thedrivers(mainly)affectthefoodsecurityatdifferentlevelsandwithadifferentmagnitude.Someshapemacro-levelconditionsinwhichourfoodsystemsexist.Otherdriversaffectthefoodsupplychain,i.e.foodproductionsystemsaswellasallotheractivitiesthatmovefoodfromproductiontoconsumption,whilesomeothersdirectlyaffectindividualsandhouseholdsandshapethewayinwhichconsumersacquire,prepareandconsumefood.

Thedriversandunderlyingtrends,suchasextremeweatherpatterns,biodiversityloss,higherinputcosts-justtonameafew-areprofoundlyinterconnectedandinteractwitheachotherinmultifacetedwaysacrossthefoodsystem.

(6)GlobalReportonFoodCrisis2022,Mid-yearUpdate

(7)HungerHotspots(September2022),FAO-WFP

(8)

TheStateofFoodSecurityandNutritionintheWorldreport(2022)

(9)

Nutritionandfoodsystems.AreportbytheHighLevelPanelofExpertsonFoodSecurityandNutritionof

theCommitteeonWorldFoodSecurity.September2017.HLPEReport12.Foodsecurityandnutrition:

buildingaglobalnarrativetowards2030()

(10)https://research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu/strategy/support-policy-making/scientific-support-eu-policies/group-chief-scientific-advisors/towards-sustainable-food-system_en

/3/ca2079en/CA2079EN.pdf

6

Aconceptthatrecognisesthecomplexinterlinkagesbetweenmanyofthedriversoffoodsecuritydescribedinthisanalysisisthe‘OneHealthapproach’that‘isanintegrated,unifyingapproachthataimstosustainablybalanceandoptimisethehealthofhumans,animals,plants,andecosystems.Itrecognisesthatthehealthofhumans,domesticandwildanimals,plantsandthewiderenvironment(includingecosystems)arecloselylinkedandinterdependent.

Figure1:ConceptualframeworkfortheanalysisofdriversaffectingfoodsecurityintheEUasdiscussedintheStaffWorkingDocument.

3. Overviewofthemainelementsofthedriversidentified

3.1. Biophysicalandenvironmentaldrivers

Soil,water,biodiversity,andairarebasicrequirementsforfoodproduction.BiophysicalandenvironmentaldriversleaveamajorimprintonthelandasEU′smajorresourceforfoodproduction,inducinglandcoverandland-usechangesandthusaffectingfoodproductionsystems.Thisanalysishasidentifiedthatthecurrenthighinputintensiveagriculturalmodel,basedonchemicalpesticides,islikelytoposeafoodsecuritythreatinthemediumtermduetoalossofbiodiversity,thelikelyincreaseinpests,declineinsoilhealthandlossofpollinatorswhichareessentialtoagriculturalproduction.

DifferentlandusescompeteintheEU:housing,infrastructure,energygeneration,tourismandrecreation,agriculture,etc.Allofwhichhaveimplicationsintermsofareaavailableforagriculturalproduction.Promotingamixtureofsystemsallowingforsustainablesoilmanagement,agricultureuseandotherusesinparallel,canhelpalleviatethetension.Agriculturallandisallocatedacrossdifferentusesandobjectivesincludinganimalrearingortheproductionofdifferentcropsforfood,animalfeed,bio-basedproductsorbiofuels.

In2020,accordingtothelastEurostatIntegratedFarmStatistics(IFS)census,61%ofagriculturallandisusedasarableland,31%iscoveredbypermanentgrassland,whiletherest

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isusedforpermanentcrops.Inthelastmarketingyear,morethanhalf(56%)ofthesurfacedevotedtoarablelandwasusedforfeed,while28%isusedforfoodand7%forbiofuels(thesesharesdependoncropchoices,productqualityandmarketdemand).

Enhancingtheresilienceofprimaryproductionsystemstosustainfoodsecurityrequiresamulti-dimensionalandinteractingapproach.Thisincludesactionaimedatreducingpollutionandchemicalinputs,closingnutrientcycles,fosteringbiodiversity,sustainableuseoffreshandmarinewatersandsoilhealth,reversingpollinatordecline,aswellasbetterprotectionagainstclimatechangewhilemaintainingvitalecosystemservices.TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(2022)notesthat“optionsthatpromoteintensificationofproductionhavebeenwidelyadoptedinagricultureforclimatechangeadaptation,butwithpotentialnegativeeffects.Integratedandsystems-orientedsolutionstoalleviatecompetitionandtrade-offsbetweenmitigationandadaptationwillreinforcelong-termresilienceandequityinwaterandfoodsystems”(11).

Primaryproductionandthewholefoodsupplychainarehighlyvulnerabletotheimpactsofclimatechangeandbiodiversityloss.ChangesinweatherpatternsinducedbyclimatechangearealreadyjeopardisingfoodproductioninEurope,andtheimpactswillworseninthecomingyears.Theconsequencesforregionalagricultureproductionandfoodhabitswillbesignificant.Furthermore,thelargestsocio-economicandfoodsecurityimpactswilloccurinregionswherethenaturalresourcesneededforproductionareunderparticularstress.

Formarinefisheries,theoverallexploitationratedecreased,whilebiomassofstocksincreased,intheNorth-EastAtlanticovertheperiod2003-2020.Still,manystocksareoverfishedand/oroutsidesafebiologicallimitsorstilllackfullscientificassessment(STECF,2022).ThesituationregardingstocksintheMediterraneanandBlackSeasremainschallengingwithannualexploitationratestwicetheoptimalonesovertheperiod2003-2019.Improvementstofishstocksshouldresultinslightincreasesinfuturefishingopportunities,whichwouldimprovetheresilienceoftheEUfishingfleet.Yet,adverseeffectsfromclimatechangewillincreasinglyaffectfishstocks,whilekeystressors,suchashumanimpactsonmarinebiodiversity,pollution,andinvasivealienspecies,shouldbeaddressedasamatterofurgencytohelpcomprehensivelyaddressthecrisisandhelpsustainfishstocks.

AroundonethirdoftheEUareasuffersfromwaterstressandwarming.ThisisespeciallythecaseinSouthernEuropeandtheMediterraneanregion,whichisseriouslythreatenedbydesertification.Intheabsenceofambitiousandeffectiveglobalmitigationactions,modelsforecastafurther2-5°CtemperatureriseinEuropeoverthenextdecades,resultinginanorthwardshiftofcurrentclimaticzones(Masson-Delmotteetal.,2022).Extremeclimaticevents,suchasseveredroughtsandheatwavesoccurwithincreasingfrequency(Vogel,2020;Toreti,2019;Seneviratne,2021).Thisgeneratesanactualriskthatconcurringandcombinedhazardsfromclimatechange(suchasinvasivealienspecies,pestoutbreaks,andemergingdiseases,increasedseverityofwindandhailstorms)mightalreadyhitsomeoftheworld’skeyagriculturalproductionandtriggerinternationalmarketshocks,highervolatility,andpricespikeswithinthenextfewyears.Implementingtargetedlocaladaptationstrategies,suchasswitchingtolesswaterdemandingcrops,improvingsoilhealthanditsspongecapacity,modernisingexistingirrigationsystemsbyimplementingwatersavingirrigationtechniques,deployingintegratednutrientmanagementplans,improvinglongtermplanning,andleveraging

(11)IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf

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internationaltrademayalleviatesomeoftheclimatechangeimpacts.Maladaptation,whichcanunderminelonger-termresilienceortheresilienceofotherusers,hasbeenobservedacrossmanyregions,butshouldbeavoided.E.g.theuseofhigh-costirrigationinareasthatareprojectedtohavemoreintensedroughtconditions,ortheplantingofunsuitabletreespecies(12).

Environmentalpollution,i.e.degradationofnaturalresources(air,water,soil),negativelyaffectsfoodsecurity.EvidenceshowsthatozoneairpollutionreducesEUstaplecropyieldsby5-10%(VanDingenen,2009;Mils,2018),andthatsuchareductionmightbecutbyhalfifsubstantialairpollutionreductionmeasuresareimplemented.Althoughitposesaserioushealthhazard,airpollutionfromairborneparticulatematterhasmoderate,andmulti-directionaleffectsoncropproduction.Globallyfood-systemsareresponsibleforaboutathirdofparticulatematteremissions.

Agricultureisalsothemainsourceofnitrogendischargeintowatersheds.InmanyEUcountriestheuseofanimalmanureandsyntheticfertiliserscauseshighlevelsofnitrateinsurfacewatersandgroundwater.Inadditiontopollutionfromemissionsandby-productsofhumanactivities,potentiallyharmfulsubstancesareoftenreleasedintheenvironment,eitherintentionallytocombatpests(e.g.pesticides)orcollaterallyaspartofwastemanagementpractices(e.g.landfills).However,someproperlytreatedorganicwastestreamsenrichthesoilwithnutrientsandorganicmatter(e.g.manure,sewagesludge,compost,digestatefromanaerobicdigestion).Chemicalpollutants(e.g.pesticides,nutrients,heavymetals,plasticsandmicroplastics)canhavemultiplenegativeeffectsonbothterrestrialandaquatic(freshwaterandmarine)ecosystems,compromisethequalityofdrinkingandirrigationwater,degradethequalityofsoilandofseafood,andhavedirectimpactsonhumanhealth.Eutrophicationinmarineandfreshwaterecosystemscanhavebroadeffectsonthenaturalinterconnectionoffoodchains,affectingfisheriesbyreducingtheproductionathighertrophiclevels(e.g.,fish,shellfish,etc.).Humanactivitiesatseaalsocontributetoenvironmentalpollution.Aquaculturepracticesmaydischargenutrients,veterinaryproductsandorganicmatterthatcanleadtopollutionifnotappropriatelymanaged.Macro-andmicroplasticisalsoreleasedintothemarineenvironmentthroughlostordiscardedfishinggearsandthewearofaquaculturefacilities.

IntheEU,95%offoodisproducedonlandanddependsonsoilhealth.Intensiveagriculturewithhighchemicalinputstogetherwithunsustainabledrainageincreasedpotentialforsoilerosion.Thespreadofpersistentpollutantsarethemaindriversofsoildegradation.Throughfilteringandtransformation,soilcanaccumulatepollutantsandbecomeapotentialsourc