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ANALYSTREPORT
TheStateof
Retail&E-Commerce
Findingthenextwaveofonlineshoppinggrowth
amidmountinginflationarypressure
H22022
?2022MorningConsult.Allrightsreserved.
2
InThisReport
3ExecutiveSummary
4KeyTakeaways
5E-CommerceGrowthNormalizes
14FulfillmentConvenienceOutweighsSpeed
23InflationStrainsConsumers’Budgets
29TheDataBehindtheReport
83%
67%
67%
63%
55%
ExecutiveSummary
Growthinconsumers’useofe-commercechannelshasnormalized,andthenextphaseofgrowthwillrequireovercomingonlineanddeliveryfriction.Shoppersreducingdiscretionaryspendingduetoinflationwillmakeitharderforretailerstocontinuetheseinvestments.
MorningConsult’ssemiannualStateofRetail&
E-Commercereporttracksevolvingconsumershoppingbehaviorsandexpectationsandinterpretswhattheymeanfortheindustry’sfuture.
Thisyear,retailhasseencontinuedspendinggrowth,althoughthathasbeenledmorebyinflationthanbyincreasingconsumerdemand.While
consumerconfidence
hasplummeted,spendinghasremainedhigh,butwe’realreadyseeingshopperbehaviorchange,demonstratingthatthespendingspreecan’tgoonforever.Retailersneedtocloselymonitortheirkeyshoppersegmentsforindicationsofchangingdemandandbehaviorpatterns.
Basedonsurveyinterviewswithmorethan15,000adultsacrosstheUnitedStates,Australia,
Brazil,Canada,China,France,Germany,Italy,
Japan,Mexico,SouthKorea,Spain,ThailandandtheUnitedKingdom,thisreportprovidesinsightintoconsumertrendsthatwillshapethefutureofretailande-commerce.
Sharesofconsumerswhoprefertoshopinstores
versusonlineinthefollowingcategories:
ONLINE
INSTORES
15%
Groceriesand
householdgoods
21%
Homefurnishings
andappliances
Beautyand
24%
personalcare
products
33%
Apparel,shoes
andaccessories
37%
Personal
electronics
Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence.“Idon’tpurchaseproductsfromthiscategory”responsesnotshown.
3
4
2
Convenientdeliveryismoreimportantthanfastdelivery
Shoppersuse“buyonline,pickupinstore”servicesforconveniencemorethandeliveryspeed,andmostshoppersdon’texpecttheironlineorderstocomesoonerthanfivedays.
READMORE
3
Consumerscan’tcontinuetoabsorbhighercosts,andretailers’painwillgrow
Shoppershavemaintainedspendinginthefaceofsky-highinflationbutareincreasinglymakingtrade-offstoaccommodatehigherpricesforessentials.Nonessentialcategorieswillstruggleinthesecondhalfof2022.
READMORE
KeyTakeaways
1
Thenextphaseof
e-commercegrowthrequiresmoreIRLshoppingelements
Torealizecontinuedonlineshoppinggrowth,retailerswillneedtoimprovetheirdiscoveryanddeliveryexperiences.Advancingretailtechnologycanhelp,butconsumeradoptioniscurrentlylagging.
READMORE
5
SECTION1
E-CommerceGrowth
Normalizes
Ase-commercereturnstoitspre-pandemicgrowthtrajectory,
retailersshouldlooktobrick-and-mortarintegrationsand
advantagestoidentifyopportunitiestobringinnewshoppers
6
%2%21%
2%
%
mo
week
meawe
day
tima
10%
Globally,onlineshoppingratesarerelativelystable,withkeyexceptions
SOUTHKOREA
N
ot
ata
ll
9
O
nc
ea
nt
h
or
less
6
O
nc
ea
A
fe
wti
s
ek
6
O
nc
ea
8
Sev
eral
e
s
d
ay
Apr’21
Jul’22
UNITEDSTATES
17
%
%
16
%
19
%
7
9
%
%
32
Source:MorningConsultBrandIntelligence
Onlineshoppingfrequencybycountry
CHINA
18
%
12
9
%
%
%
18
%
%
22
22
UNITEDKINGDOM
11
%
%
%
21
8
%%
8
%
33
20
MEXICO
31%
36%
13%
15%
2%
FRANCE
28%
41%
11%
15%
4%
Onlineshoppingratesaremostlysteady
inmanyofthecountriesanalyzedforthis
report,butSouthKorea,Chinaand
Mexicoarestandouts.
TheUnitedStates,UnitedKingdomand
Franceallseestablebutdifferinglevels
ofonlineshopping.TheUnitedKingdom
outpacestheUnitedStates,butFrance
islagging,givenitsconsumers’overall
preferenceforshoppinginstores.
Meanwhile,inSouthKorea,therising
andfallingfrequencyofonlineshopping
alignswithCOVID-19lockdowns;in
China,bothlockdownsandthe
government’sbigtechcrackdownledto
adipandrecoveryinonlineshopping
rates.Mexicohasseenmoresteady
growthandisonekeytestmarketfor
ultrafastdeliverydisruptors.
AsiancountriesandtheUnitedKingdomleadconsumerpreferenceforonlineshoppingacrossmultiplecategories
Thechallengesofdeliveringasatisfyingonlineshoppingexperiencevaryacrosscategoriesandcountries,andidentifyingwhichcompetitorsaregettingitrightinothermarketscanhelpretailersidentifypathstoe-commercegrowth.Forexample,apparelandelectronicsretailersmightlooktotheircounterpartsinChina,GermanyortheUnitedKingdomtodeterminebestpractices.
Thegrocerycategorypresentsaninterestingtestcaseforretailinnovation.DespitelowconsumerinterestoutsideChinaandSouthKorea—and,toalesserextent,theUnitedKingdom—groceryretailersaroundtheworldarefindingwaystodeliveronlineordersinaslittleas15minutes.Butit’sunlikelythattheseservicescanscaleinmarketswherepreferenceforonlineshoppingremainslow.
Preferenceforonlineshoppingbycategory
AMERICAS
ASIA-PACIFIC
EUROPE
BrazilCanadaMexicoU.S.FranceGermanyItalySpainU.K.AustraliaChinaJapanSouthKoreaThailand
Apparel,shoes
andaccessories
Beautyandpersonal
careproducts
Groceriesand
householdgoods
Homefurnishings
andappliances
Personalelectronics
10%
30%
40%
50%
20%
70%
80%
0%
60%
Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence.ResponsesforJapanshouldbeinterpretedwithcaution,asthecountryshowsextremebottom-boxbias.
7
8
E-commercebeatsin-storeshoppingonconvenienceandtimesaved
IntheUnitedStates,onlineshoppingwinsonconvenience,timesavingsandproductselection—allfactorsthatstoreswillalwayshaveahardtimecompetingwith.
Physicalstoresdohaveseveraladvantagesovere-commercethataredifficulttoreplicate,butretailersaremakingstridestoclosethatgap.Leadingbrandsareusingdigitalchannelsandlocationservicestopushcustomerstoreserveitemsforin-storepickuptogetthebestofbothworlds.
Advancementsinaugmentedrealityarehelpingconsumersseethree-dimensionalproductsintheirhomesandestimatefitforapparel,buttheseofferingsarestillapoorsubstituteforatactileexperience.
Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence
U.S.consumers’reasonsforshoppinginstoresversusonline
INSTORES
ONLINE
43%
22%
49%
24%
59%
25%
11%
22%
42%
13%
20%
Convenience
Timesaved
Productcomparisons
Productselection
Enjoyment
Moneysaved
Safety
Promotions
Productdetails
Productquality
Customerservice
Black,HispanicandGen
Zshoppershaveamuchlowerperceptionof
onlineconveniencethanthegeneralpopulation.
Shoppersfromhouseholdswith$100kormoreinannualincomearemuchmorelikelytosayproductcomparisonsareanadvantageofonlineshopping.
High-andmiddle-incomeshoppers(atleast$50kinannualincome)aremorelikelytocitebetterproductselectionasareasonforshoppingonline.
MillennialsandGenZadultsaremorelikelythanothergenerationstoprefershoppingonlinebecauseofbetterpromotionsanddiscounts.
38%
69%
48%
45%
41%
78%
33%
14%
25%
24%
12%
50%
41%
Thedeclineinenjoymentofonlineshoppingisparticularlypronouncedamongmillennials—thegenerationmostlikelytopreferonlineshopping.InJune,just37%saidtheyshoponlinebecausetheyenjoydoingso.
Butenjoymentofonlineshoppingisdwindling,whilestoresareholdingsteady
U.S.consumers’enjoymentofonlineshoppinghasdwindledoverthelastfewmonths.InMarch,50%ofonlineshopperssaidtheyprefershoppingonlinebecausetheyenjoytheexperience;inJune,thatwasdownto41%.Don’tblamethesupplychain,though:Onlineshoppersarereportingfewerdelayedorders,butasconsumersbegindeferringdiscretionarypurchasesbecauseofinflation,shoppingforfunisn’twhatitusedtobe.
In-storeshoppingenjoymenthasalsodroppedslightly,buttoamuchlesserdegree.
Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence
ShareofU.S.consumerswhosaytheyshoponlineorinstoresbecausetheyenjoytheexperience
Instores
Online
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%Oct’21
Mar’22Apr’22May’22Jun’22
Nov’21Dec’21Jan’22Feb’22
9
France
Mexico
Spain
Canada
Australia
Thailand
Japan
Brazil
Italy
Germany
U.K.
U.S.
SouthKoreaChina
Globally,in-storeshoppingisconsumers’prevailingpreference
In-storeshoppingisthedominantpreferenceinallcountriessurveyedexceptSouthKoreaandChina.
IntheUnitedStates,youngerconsumerspredictablyshowahigherpreferenceforonlineshopping,butevenGenZadultspreferin-personoveronlineshopping.Householdsearninglessthan$50,000annuallyarealsomorelikelythanmiddle-andhigh-incomeconsumerstoprefergoingtostores.
RetailersaroundtheworldlooktoChinaforavisionofwhatthefutureofretailtechnologyholds.However,retailleadersmustrememberthatChineseconsumersarefarmoreadvancedwhenitcomestoadoptionofpersonaltechnology,withwidespreadrelianceonsuperappshelpingtoaccelerateChina’se-commerceboom.
Shareofconsumerswhoprefertoshop
INSTORES
68%
68%
63%
62%
61%
58%
58%
57%
54%
51%
48%
46%
41%
16%
instoresversusonline
ONLINEUnlikeinmostNorthAmerican
andEuropeancountries,whereshoppingpreferencesaresimilaracrossgenders,womeninAustralia,Italy,SouthKoreaandThailandshowahigherpreferenceforonlineshoppingthanmen.
28%
17%
27%
18%
21%
28%
28%
53%
57%
18%
20%
15%
16%
13%
Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence.“Idon’thaveapreferencewhereIshop”responsesnotshown.ResponsesforJapanshouldbeinterpretedwithcaution,
asthecountryshowsextremebottom-boxbias.
10
11
Perceivedin-storeadvantagesvaryglobally
EnjoymentofshoppinginstoresistheleadingreasonwhyU.S.consumerschoosein-personoveronlineshopping,butthatenjoymentisfarfromuniversalaroundtheworld;shoppersinothercountriestendtofindlessenjoymentinshoppinginpersonthanU.S.consumersdo.
Frenchconsumers,whohaveanoverwhelmingpreferenceforin-storeshopping,headtostoresforsuperiorselectionandtheabilitytocompareproducts.Incountrieswithastrongonlineshoppingculture,likeSouthKorea,in-storeadvantageslikeenjoymentandproductdetailshaveastrongerpull.
Globalconsumers’reasonsforshoppinginstores
U.S.
Australia
Brazil
Canada
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
Mexico
SouthKorea
Spain
Thailand
U.K.
Enjoyment
59%
58%
42%
49%
39%
53%
46%
44%
50%
55%
50%
34%
56%
Productcomparisons
49%
52%
43%
47%
44%
40%
37%
22%
55%
46%
46%
37%
42%
Convenience
43%
53%
27%
50%
39%
43%
34%
26%
37%
23%
37%
51%
46%
Productdetails
42%
42%
35%
43%
39%
36%
47%
63%
40%
55%
46%
52%
35%
Moneysaved
25%
24%
26%
29%
19%
23%
12%
19%
29%
8%
19%
19%
26%
Productselection
24%
34%
34%
29%
44%
22%
16%
25%
14%
39%
11%
33%
29%
Timesaved
22%
21%
10%
30%
12%
18%
14%
12%
20%
6%
18%
33%
16%
Promotions
22%
23%
32%
30%
31%
47%
18%
5%
33%
7%
23%
21%
23%
Customerservice
20%
27%
22%
23%
20%
22%
24%
11%
15%
25%
26%
10%
22%
Productquality
13%
19%
16%
18%
16%
10%
9%
8%
14%
19%
9%
15%
17%
Safety
11%
12%
36%
9%
24%
16%
16%
18%
34%
15%
22%
28%
8%
Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence.ResponsesforJapanshouldbeinterpretedwithcaution,asthecountryshowsextremebottom-boxbias.
67%
43%
67%
61%
54%
16%
16%
14%
11%
ARtechnologycouldhelpbridgethegap,butinterestexceedsuse
ChinaGermanyThailand MexicoBrazil
Spain U.K.France
U.S.
SouthKorea ItalyAustraliaCanadaJapan
Shareofconsumerswhohaveused,orareinterestedinusing,augmentedrealitytovisualizeproducts
HaveusedInterestedinusing
36%
36%
31%
28%
27%
20%20%
20%
57%
55%
42%
41%
43%
19%
18%
47%
42%
42%
32%
Whileaugmentedrealityisonepromisingsolutiontobringakeyadvantageofstoresintopeople’shomesviasmartphones,interestfarexceedsuseglobally,andtheUnitedStateslagsothercountriesinbothinterestanduse.
Similarly,fitestimators—whichrecommendthebestapparelsizeandpromisetosolvethepainpointofreturnsforbothretailersandconsumers—garnersubstantialinterestfromconsumers,despitelowratesofuseoutsideofChinaandGermany.
Othershoppingtechnology,likeonline
estimatesoflocalstoreinventory,ismore
widespreadandcanatleastencourageonline
shopperstovisitastoretoexperiencea
productifoneisnearby.
Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence.ResponsesforJapanshouldbeinterpretedwithcaution,asthecountryshowsextreme
bottom-boxbias.
12
13
WHATITMEANS:Continuede-commercegrowthrequiresmoreIRLelements
WHATTHISMEANSFORRETAILBRANDS
It’shardtoreplicatethetactileexperienceofshoppinginstoresinadigitalenvironment,bute-commercetechnologyisgettingcloser.Retailersshouldcontinuetoinvestininnovationslikefitpredictorsthatshowagreatdealofpromise,evenifthey’renotquitethereyet.
Bylookingtocounterpartsinandoutofcategory—andtoregionswhereconsumersshowahigherpropensityforshoppingonline—retailerscandiscoverhowotherbrandsareclosingthegapbetweenonlineandofflinecommerce.
Onlineshoppingwillcontinuetogrow,bute-commercebrandshaveto
overcomea
15-percentage-pointtrustgap
amongthosewhopreferin-
storeshopping.Thefactis,shopperswanttoseeproductsinpersonto
validatetheirdecisions.Featureslikeratingsandreviewsareusefulbut
rifewithfraud;moreadvancedtechnologythatgivesa360-degreedigital
viewoftheproducthelpsbutdoesn’tletcustomerssitonanARsofa;fit
quizzesaddsomevaluebutareofteninaccurate.
Forretailerswithbothdigitalandbrick-and-mortarstores,encouraging
storevisitstoseeinventoryinpersoncanhelpovercomesomereticence.
Forthosethatareonline-only,continuedinvestmentinimprovingthe
technologythathassomuchpromiseisnecessary.
Asboththerateofonlineshoppinggrowthandconsumers’enjoymentof
itdecline,it’sincumbentupone-commercebrandstomakethe
experiencemorefunwhilesimultaneouslyreducingfriction.Many
retailersarebehindthecurveonpaymentacceptanceanddelivery
options,compoundingshoppers’frustrationsaftertheyclick“addtocart.”
14
SECTION2
FulfillmentConvenience
OutweighsSpeed
Retailersshouldfocustheirfulfillmenteffortsonconveniencerather
thanoptimizingforspeed
15
Theindustryisfocusedonspeed,butconsumerswantflexibility
Tomanyretailers,winningthefulfillmentraceseemscriticaltostandoutfromthecompetition.ButwithultrafastdeliverydisruptorslikeJokrmakingbigwavesintheretailpressandthenquicklyexitingtheU.S.marketaltogether,theviabilityofthatmodelforU.S.shopperscomesintoquestion.Evenonlinegroceryshopperswhoexpecttheirorderswithinthesamedayaren’texpectingdeliverieswithinthehour.
Formostnongrocerycategories,theneedforspeedisindustry-led.Infact,consumersaregenerallyhappytoreceivetheironlineorderswithinfivedays,althoughsame-daydeliveryandpickupservicesareespeciallypopularwithyoung,wealthyandurbanshoppers.
Whileconveniencedrivesconsumers’fulfillmentchoices,retailersshouldrememberthatspeedisnotthesingulardefiningfactorofconvenience.Onlineshoppersalsovaluetheabilitytoreceivetheiritemsviatheirpreferreddeliverymethod,evenifthatmeanswaitinglonger.
Thisisnottosaythatgreaterdeliveryflexibilityiseasytoimplement.Thelogisticsofofferingavarietyoffulfillmentoptionsarechallenging.Butfornow,retailersshouldfocusonflexibilityoverspeed.
Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence
U.S.consumers’shippingspeedexpectations
forthefollowingcategories:
GroceriesandBeautyandpersonalApparel,shoesPersonalHomefurnishings
householdgoodscareproductsandaccessorieselectronicsandappliances
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Next
day
Within
2days
Within
5days
Within
aweek
Same
day
Within
2weeks
16
Globally,thereisenormousvariationindeliveryspeedexpectations
MostU.S.consumersdon’texpecttoreceivetheironlineorderswithintwodays.However,expectationsvaryacrosscategoriesandaroundtheworld.
Shoppersincountrieswithultrafastdeliveryservices—likeSouthKorea,ChinaandMexico—havesignificantlyhighershippingspeedexpectationsthanconsumersintheUnitedStates,AustraliaandEuropeannations.
Still,it’sclearthatevenincountrieswithestablishedultrafastgrocerydeliveryservices,thosesamespeedexpectationsdon’ttranslatetoothercategories,whereconsumersgiveretailersmuchmoreleeway.
Shareofconsumerswhoexpecttoreceivetheironlineordersintwodaysorfewer
AMERICAS
EUROPE
ASIA-PACIFIC
BrazilCanadaMexicoU.S.FranceGermanyItalySpainU.K.AustraliaChinaJapanSouthKoreaThailand
Groceriesand
householdgoods
Beautyandpersonal
careproducts
Apparel,shoesand
accessories
Personalelectronics
Homefurnishings
andappliances
30%
40%
50%
20%
70%
80%
60%
90%
Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence.ResponsesforJapanshouldbeinterpretedwithcaution,asthecountryshowsextremebottom-boxbias.
17
2daysorfewer
GENERATION
5daysormore
2daysorfewer
COMMUNITY
5daysormore
2daysorfewer
GENDER
5daysormore
Millennials,menandurbanitesdrivedemandforfastdelivery
ExaminingthedemographicprofilesofU.S.consumerswhoexpectdeliveryintwodaysorfewerasopposedtofivedaysormorerevealsthatmillennials,menandurbanitesareoverrepresentedinthegroupthatwantsfasterdelivery.
Retailershopingtoattractayoungerandmoreurbancustomerbase—aswellasstoreswithexpandingmen’sofferings—shouldcloselyfollowtheemergenceofultrafastdeliveryandexplorepartnershipswithsuchservices.Otherretailerscanresteasy,as30-minutedeliveryisunlikelytobecomeacommonexpectation.
Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence
Shippingspeedexpectationsforapparel,personalcareproductsandelectronics,
bydemographicprofile
GenZadultsMillennialsGenXersBabyboomers
10%
38%
28%
24%
9%
24%
24%
43%
UrbanSuburbanRural
33%
43%
25%
19%
56%
25%
MenWomen
53%
47%
42%
58%
18
Groceriesandhouseholdgoods
Personal
Homefurnishingsandappliances
electronics
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%CurbsideIn-storeCurbsideIn-storeCurbsideIn-storeCurbsideIn-storeCurbsideIn-store
Convenienceoutweighsspeedinomnichanneloptions
Convenience,notspeed,guidesconsumers’onlinedeliverydecisionsinmostcategories.Theoneexceptionispersonalelectronics,wherespeedconsistentlyoutranksconvenience.Theabilitytocontroltimingisalsocriticalacrosscategories.
Curbsideandin-storepickupoptionsretainextremelyhighlevelsofsatisfactionfromshoppers,suggestingthattheseservicestendtobeaccurate,timelyandeasytoaccess.
Despitethesehighratingsandperceptionsofconvenience,fewconsumersusein-storeandcurbsidepickupoptionsconsistently,indicatingthatthere’sroomtogrowtheseservices.Retailersalsoreportthatomnichannelcustomersspendmore,givingthemagoodreasontoprioritizetheseofferings.
Importanceofthefollowingfactorstoconsumerswhomadeonlinepurchases
forcurbsideorin-storepickup:
ConvenienceTimingSpeedCost
Apparel,shoesandaccessories
Beautyandpersonal
careproducts
Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence
Personalelectronics
Apparel,shoesandaccessories
In-storepickupremainspopularforelectronicsandhomepurchases
Useofin-storepickupforhomefurnishingsandpersonalelectronicsisrelativelyvolatile,asthesecategoriesarelinkedtomorepersistent
supplychainchallenges
.U.S.consumersaremorelikelytousethein-storepickupoptiontoensuretheygettheexactproducttheywant,whereasothercategorieshavemoresubstitutability.
Useofin-storepickupandsame-daydeliveryforapparelpurchaseshastickedupinrecentmonths,from31%inMarchto38%inJuneforin-storepickupandfrom28%to35%forsame-daydelivery.Thismomentumcomesamidgainsinapparelsectorspendingoverallandanupwardtrendinconsumers’preferenceforonlineapparelshopping.
Shareofshopperswhousedin-storepickupservicesinthefollowingcategories:
70%
60%
Homefurnishingsandappliances
50%
40%
30%
Beautyandpersonalcareproducts
20%
Groceriesandhouseholdgoods
10%
Nov’21Dec’21Jan’22Feb’22Mar’22Apr’22May’22Jun’22
Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence
19
20
Urbanites,menandmillennialstendtouse“buyonline,pickupinstore”servicesmost
WhencomparingthedemographicprofileofshoppersacrossarangeofcategoriestothosewhoareBOPISusersineachcategory,wecanseewhichconsumercohortsaremorelikelytotakeadvantageofcurbsideandin-storepickupofferings.
Acrosstheboard,urbanshoppersuseBOPISmorethansuburbanandruralones,whichshouldguideretailerstoprioritizeurbanstoreswhenreallocatingfloorspacetobetteraccommodateBOPISorders.MillennialsseesomeofthelargestdifferentialsinusingBOPISversusothershoppingmethods,andmenareslightlymorelikelythanwomentouseBOPISofferings.
SharesofallshoppersversussharesofBOPISusersinthefollowingdemographics:
MenGenZadultsMillennialsBabyboomersUrbanIncome:<$50kIncome:$100k+
Groceryand
householdgoods
48%
34%
31%
27%
50%
44%
31%
20%
AllBOPIS
shoppersusers
Apparel,shoesand
accessories
54%
45%
42%
34%
15%
8%
AllBOPIS
shoppersusers
Personalelectronics
58%
43%
17%
63%
50%
23%
AllBOPIS
shoppersusers
Beautyand
personalcare
52%
44%
37%
29%
12%
50%
49%
48%
38%
16%
AllBOPIS
shoppersusers
61%
57%
49%
43%
Homefurnishingsandappliances
68%
64%
51%
43%
AllBOPIS
shoppersusers
Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence
46%
39%
34%
34%
33%
32%
30%
29%
27%
23%
23%
22%
16%
16%
Source:MorningConsultResearchIntelligence
Supplychallengesareeasing,butretailersgettheblamefordelays
Demandforgoodsremainsstrongdesp
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