Food Security Update World Bank Response to Rising Food Insecurity行業(yè)報告上傳

dateDecemberThefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisupdatedonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheWorldBankitsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.ATATAGLANCE?Theagriculturalandexportpriceindicesclosed1percentand6percenthigher,respectively,thanreportedinthelastupdatepreparedonDecember1,2022;thecerealpriceindexclosedatthesamelevel.?Domesticfoodpriceinflationcontinuestoremainhighinalmostalllow-,middle-,andhigh-incomecountries.?AccordingtotheAgriculturalMarketInformationSystem(AMIS)December2022MarketMonitor,LaNi?ahashadvaryingimpactsonyieldsinkeyproducingregions.TheMonitoralsoindicatesthatpricevolatilitycausedbyspeculationcanincreasefoodsecurityrisks,especiallyforlow-incomecountries.?The2022GlobalHungerIndex(GHI)indicatesthatoverlappingcriseshaveexposedtheweaknessoffoodsystemsandthatglobalprogressagainsthungerhaslargelystagnatedinrecentyears.?AccordingtoaWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)report,WTOmemberstatesareintroducingtraderestrictionsatanincreasingpace.GLOBALGLOBALMARKETOUTLOOK(ASOFDECEMBER13,2022)griculturalCommodityPricesigureAgriculturalandCerealPriceTrendsNominalIndexesSource:WorldBankcommoditypricedata.NoteDailypricesfromJanuary1,toDecember13,2022.Theexportindexincludescocoa,coffee,andcotton;thecerealindexincludesricewheat,andmaize.lastupdatepreparedonDecember1,2022;thecerealpriceindexclosedatthesamelevel(Figure1).Wheatandricepricesclosed1percentand6percenthigher,respectively,whereasmaizepriceswere1percentloweroverthesameperiod.AveragewheatpricesforDecember2022arenow5percentloweronayear-on-yearbasis,andmaizeandhigher,respectively,thaninJanuary2021,andricepricesare11percentlower.FoodPriceInflationDashboardDomesticfoodpriceinflation(measuredasyear-on-yearchangeinthefoodcomponentofacountry’sConsumerdinAnnexAInformationfromthelatestmonthbetweenAugustandNovember2022forwhichfoodpriceinflationdataareavailableshowshighinflationinalmostalllow-andmiddle-incomecountries;88.2percentoflow-incomecountries,90.7percentoflower-middle-incomecountries,and93percentofupper-middle-incomecountrieshaveseeninflationlevelsabove5percent,withmanyexperiencingdouble-digitinflation.Theshareofhigh-incomecountrieswithhighinflationisalsohigh,withabout81.8percentexperiencinghighfoodpriceinflation.ThecountriesaffectedmostareAfrica,NorthAmerica,Latin(measuredasyear-on-yearchangeintheoverallCPI)in90percentofthe161countriesforwhichfoodCPIandoverallCPIindexesarebothavailable(Figure3).Thisweek’s10countrieswiththehighestfoodpriceinflation,innominalandrealterms,arelistedinTable1(usingthelatestmonthforwhichdataareavailablebetweenAugustandNovember2022).Figure2:FoodInflationHeatMapFigure3:RealFoodInflationHeatMapSource:InternationalMonetaryFund,HaverAnalytics,andTradingEconomics.NoteFoodinflationforeachcountryisbasedonthelatestmonthfromAugusttoNovember2022forwhichthefoodcomponentoftheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)andoverallCPIdataareavailable.Realfoodinflationisdefinedasfoodinflationminusoverallinflation.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andanyotherinformationshownonthismapdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartoftheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.Table:FoodPriceInflation:Top10ListinflationnflationbwebweLebanonLebanonezuelaTürkiyeentinaTürkiyenkaeSource:InternationalMonetaryFund,HaverAnalytics,andTradingEconomics.NoteFoodinflationforeachcountryisbasedonthelatestmonthfromAugusttoNovember2022forwhichthefoodcomponentoftheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)andoverallCPIdataareavailable.Realfoodinflationisdefinedasfoodinflationminusoverallinflation.EMERGINGEMERGINGISSUESDecember2022AMISMarketMonitorHighlightstheImpactsofLaNi?aonSouthernsphereProductionWithmostnorthernhemispheregrainandoilseedcropsharvestedandtherecentrenewaloftheBlackSeaGrainInitiativefor120days,theAMISDecember2022MarketMonitorfocusesitsattentionongrowingconditionsinthesouthernhemisphere,whereLaNi?ahashadvaryingimpactsonyieldsinkeyproducingregions.Overall,month-over-monthtrendsininternationalgrainproductionprospectsandinternationalpriceshavebeenmixedinNovemberandDecember.Thereportinvestigatestowhatextentspeculationmayhaveaffectedcommoditypricevolatility.Argentinahasbeenexperiencingprolongeddrought,causedbythethirdconsecutiveyearofLaNi?a.Asaresult,wheatproductionprospectsaresharplylowerthanlastyear.Bycontrast,LaNi?ahasresultedinabnormallywetconditionsinAustralia,whichhavedrivenhigher-than-averagewheatyieldprospects.Plantingformaizeandsoybeansinthesouthernhemisphereisprogressingsteadily,butitistooearlytodeterminewhetheryieldswillreturntomore-normallevelsafterlastyear'sdrought-reducedproduction.Forrice,inSoutheastAsia,wet-seasonriceharvestingisatitspeakinnortherncountrieswhileIndonesiaiswrappingupdry-seasonriceharvesting.InDecember,theglobalwheatproductionforecastfor2022decreasedmonth-over-monthsinceNovember,fromentabovelevelsmarkingarecordhighInDecemberproductionprospectsformaizeremainedslightlylowermonth-over-monthsinceNovember,from1,167.5milliontonnesto1,163.6milliontonnes,withglobalproductionforecasttofall4percentbelow2021output,largelydrivenbydownwardrevisionsinUkraine,reflectingwar-relateddisruptions.InNovember,productionforecastsforriceremainedvirtuallyunchanged,at512.8milliontonnes,withsmallupwardrevisionsinafewcountries.Riceproductionin2022isstillexpectedtofall2.4percentbelowthe2021recordhigh.Soybeanproductionforecastsincreasedslightlymonth-on-monthinDecember,from392.4milliontonnesto394.6milliontonnes,withhigherforecastsforBrazilandtheUnitedStates,whereasthedroughtinArgentinamaydecreaseyields.Overall,inNovember,theInternationalGrainsCouncilGrainsandOilseedsIndexsawamonth-on-monthincreaseof0.5percent.Thesub-indexforwheataveraged2.9percentlowerinNovember,influencedbyconcernsaboutunfavorableweatherinArgentinaandtheUnitedStatesalongsideexpectationssurroundingglobaldemandamidpoorworldeconomicconditionsThesubindexformaizeindicatedanaverage2percentdecreaseininternationalpricesinNovember,drivenbygreatersuppliesintheUnitedStatesandlowerglobaldemand.Theaverageinternationalpriceforricewas1.8percenthighermonth-on-monthinNovember,withstrongerdemandfromIndonesia,wherethestategrainbuyerreceivedapprovaltoimportupto500,000tonnesoverthecomingmonthstoreplenishreserves.Finally,internationalsoybeanpriceswere2.6percenthigheronaverageinNovember.TheDecember2022MarketMonitorexaminesthepotentialimpactofspeculationoncommoditypricevolatility.Speculationisdefinedinthecontextofagriculturalcommoditymarketsasthebuyingandsellingoffuturescontractswiththeobjectiveofmakingaprofitratherthanreducingrisksrelatedtothephysicalexchangeofthecommodity.Speculativeactivitiessuchas“trendfollowing,”buyingwhenthepriceofcommodityfuturesgoesupunderlyingcashprice.TherearealsoseriousconcernsaboutmanipulationduringdeliveryoffuturescontractsngtosellandmakeahugeprofitAssuchdeliverymanipulationisaformofspeculationthatcanseverelyaffectmarkets,breakingtheverycorefunctionofcommodityfuturesasariskmanagementtool.Pricevolatilitycausedbyspeculationcanincreasefoodinsecurityrisks,especiallyforlow-incomecountries,destabilizingmarketsanddecreasingtheaffordabilityofimportedagriculturalproducts.2022GlobalHungerIndexReportIndicatesStalledProgressTowardZeroHungerThe2022GHI,1whichtheInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(IFPRI),ConcernWorldwide,andhilfereleasedonNovemberindicatesthatoverlappingcriseshaveexposedtheweaknessofgelystagnatedinrecentyearsTheGHIscorefordemicthewarinUkrainesupplychaindisruptionsandhighandvolatilefoodfertilizerandfuelpriceshavedrasticallyweakenedtheworld’salreadyinadequate,unsustainablefoodsystems.Asaresult,antchangeinthesetrendstheworldwillbeunabletoreachalowGHIscore,whichisconsideredlessthan10.0,by2030.TheregionswiththehighestGHIscoresareSouthAsiaandSub-SaharanAfrica,withGHIscoresof27.4and27.0,respectively(Figure4),whichareconsideredserious.Similartootherregions,andtheworldasawhole,progressinreducinghungerhasstagnatedsince2014(themostrecentreferenceyearinthisyear’sreport),whenSouthAsia’sandAfrica’sscoreswere28.0and28.1,respectively.Sub-SaharanAfricahadthehighestratesofundernourishmentandchildmortality,andSouthAsiaexperiencedthehighestchildstuntingandchildwastingratesInbothregionsconflicthasbeenamajorfactordrivingrisinghungerlevelsinmanycountries,ashaverisingfoodandfuelpricesfollowingtheCOVID-19pandemic,thewarinUkraineandextremeweathereventssuchasongoingseveredroughtinEastAfrica.1Eachcountry’sGHIscoreiscalculatedusingaformulathatcombinesfourindicatorstocapturethemultidimensionalnatureofhunger:undernourishment,childstunting,childwasting,andchildmortality.Valuesaredeterminedforthefourcomponentindicatorsforeachcountrydrawingonthelatestpublisheddataavailablefrominternationallyrecognizedsources.Eachofthefourcomponentindicatorsisgivenastandardizedscorebasedonthresholdssetslightlyabovethehighestcountry-levelvaluesobservedworldwideforthatindicatorsinceThestandardizedscoresareaggregatedtocalculatetheGHIscoreforeachcountry.Undernourishmentandchildmortalityeachcontributeone-thirdoftheGHIscore,andchildstuntingandchildwastingeachcontributeone-sixth.LowerGHIscoresindicateless-severehunger.AGHIscoreoflessthan10.0isconsideredlow,10.0to19.9isconsideredmoderate,20.0to34.9isconsideredserious,35.0to49.9isconsideredalarming,and50.0orhigherisconsideredextremelyalarming.2ConcernWorldwideandWelthungerhilfeareinternationalnongovernmentalorganizationsworkingindevelopmentcooperationandsistanceFigureWorldandRegionalGlobalHungerIndexScores0,2007,2014,and2022Source:GlobalHungerIndex2022In2022,forty-fourcountriesareexperiencingseriousoralarminghungerlevelsaccordingtotheirGHIscores.TheCentralAfricanRepublic,Chad,theDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo,Madagascar,andYemenareexperiencingalarminglevels.Thereportstatesthat,ifmoredatawereavailable,itislikelythatBurundi,Somalia,SouthSudan,andSyriawouldbemovedintothealarmingcategoryaswell,withSomaliapotentiallybeingrankedasextremelyalarmingandatseriousriskoffamine.Inaddition,20countrieswithmoderate,serious,oralarminghungerlevelsrankedhigheronthe2022GHIthaninthe2014report.ThesecountriesarespreadthroughouttheworldratherAngola,Bolivia,Brazil,Djibouti,Ghana,Malawi,Panama,Peru,Senegal,andUruguayhaveexperiencedreductionsintheirGHIscoresofmorethan50percent.Tostopandreversethetrendofrisinghungerlevelsattheglobal,regional,national,andlocallevels,thereportconcludeswithseveralpolicyrecommendations.Prioritizinginclusivegovernanceandaccountabilityineffortstotransformfoodsystems,buildinglocalcapacityandinvolvinglocalcommunities,andmobilizingtheinternationalcommunityincoordinatedeffortstopreventandrespondtoemergenciesareamongtheprimaryactionsthatwillcontributetotheSustainableDevelopmentGoalofendinghungerby2030.IncreaseInTradeRestrictionsAmidEconomicUncertaintyandMultipleCrisesArecentWTOnewsitemoutlinesDirector-GeneralNgoziOkonjo-Iweala’sannualoverviewofdevelopmentsintheberareintroducingtrademeasures,particularlythoseonfood,feed,andfertilizers.Frommid-October2021tomid-October2022,WTOcountriesintroducedmoretrade-facilitating(376)thantrade-restrictive(214)measuresongoodsunrelatedtothepandemic.TradecoverageofthefacilitativemeasureswasestimatedatUS$1,160.5billionandthatoftherestrictivemeasuresatUS$278.0billion.TheDirector-Generalhasalsoraisedconcernabouttheoverallnumberofimportrestrictions.Bymid-October2022,importrestrictionsinforcesince2009continuetoaffectsome9.3percentofglobalimports.othewarinimplementednewexportrestrictionsdespiteliftingsome.Forthefirsttimesince2009,exportrestrictionshaveoutpacedimportrestrictionsduringtheWTOTradeMonitoringreviewperiod(Figure5).Inherremarks,theDirector-Generalhighlightedthat,asofNovember24,“outofthe78export-restrictivemeasuresonfood,feed,andfertilizersintroducedsincethestartofryarestillinplacecoveringroughlyUSbillionoftradeOkonjoIwealahasstressedattheGeneralCouncilandvariousinternationalmeetings,includingtheG20,thatliftingthoserestrictionsis“fundamentaltoreducepricespikesandvolatility.”InOctober,theWTOdowngradeditsoutlookforinternationalestimatedinApril.Onapositivenote,thenumberofnewpandemic-relatedmeasuresongoodsandserviceshasdecreasedsignificantlyoverthepastyear,althoughtheirtradecoverageremainsimportant,atUS$134.6billion.FigureTradeRestrictiveMeasuresAveragePerMonth2014toMid-October2022Source:WTOSecretariat,FactSheetontheWTOTradeMonitoringReport,November2022Againstthebackdropoftheriseintrade-restrictivemeasures,aNovemberblogpostfromIFPRIexaminedhowsanctionsimposedonBelarusandRussiaarelimitingexportsofagriculturalproductsandfertilizer.Theoutlookismixed;thewar’soutbreaksignificantlyaffectedsomeexports,whichhavesincerecovered,whereasothershaveslowedconsiderably.TheUnitedStatesandEuropeanUnionhavespecified“carveouts”forthefoodandfertilizersuppliesandfertilizersareexcludedfromtheongoingsanctionsregimestolimitsecondaryeffectsonglobalfoodintoEUterritoryandaccountsforacritical10percentofallBelarusianexports(down50percentsincelastyear).isanhydrousammonia(down63percentsincelastyear),typicallyshippedthroughBalticportsandtheTolyatti-ivesourcesNotableexamplesincludeBrazilincreasingpotashimportsfromCanadaandMoroccosourcingmoreofitsanhydrousammoniafromEgyptandSaudiArabia.REGIONALREGIONALUPDATESEastandSouthernAfricamalnutritionandmorethan20millionpeopleacrossEthiopia,Kenya,andSomaliaestimatedtobeacutelyfoodinsecure(FEWSNET).IntheHornofAfrica,anunprecedentedsixthconsecutiveseasonofdroughtisforecast,andhungersurgesareexpectedontopofthealreadydireanddeterioratingfoodsecuritycrisisintheeasternHornofecastsindicateasignificantlikelihoodthattheMarch-to-May2023rainyseasonwillalsobebelowaverage,whichinturnwillaffectplantingeingrecordedacrosstheregionincreasingsufferingandreducingcopingmechanismsforcommunitiesintheeasternHorn.stAsiaandthePacificriceshavebeenrisinginseveralcountriesinEastAsiaandthePacificamidconcernsaboutlowerharvestsInariceincreasedinNovemberaslocaltraderspurchasedstockinanticipationofadecreaseinproduction,andpricesforShweBoPawsonriceremainedhigh,accordingtotheU.S.DepartmentofAgriculture.AnIFPRIsurveyinAugustindicatedthatmorethanhalfofallmillersexpectedadeclineofatleast10percentinthemonsoonpaddyharvestintheirtownshipfrom2021to2022,anadditional22percentofmillersrdeclineandjustpercentexpecttheirlocalpaddyproductiontobehigherMorethanhalfofthellerharvestthanin2021.TheDeltaregionisregardedasMyanmar’sricebasket.ThemonsoongrowingseasonisessentialforIntheLaoPeoplesDemocraticRepublic(PDR),ricepriceshaveremainedhighdespitemostfarmershavingcompletedthemainwet-tributedtothehighprices,andfarmersbelievethattheimpactoftheweakLaotiankipandnaturaldisasters,includingflooding,pests,anddisease,willincreasethepriceofricefurther.Manyfarmershavetakenotherjobsinsteadofgrowingricebecauseofthehighcostofinputssuchasfertilizer,labor,andfuel.InIndonesia,Novemberretail,wholesale,andmillpricesforriceincreasedby4.2percent,6.1percent,and10.8percent,respectively,inannualterms.AccordingtoStatisticsIndonesia,seasonalfactors(lowerproductiontowardtheendoftheyear)andfuelpriceadjustmentshavecontributedtothepriceincrease.ThegovernmentofIndonesia,throughstate-ownedenterpriseBulog,hasannouncedthatitisimportingricetomoderatepricesattheconsumerlevel.ThedecisiontoimportricewasmadeasBulog-managedgovernmentricereservelevels—whichcurrentlystandat0.5milliontonnes—areunlikelytoreachtheminimumtargetof1.2milliontonnesbyendoftheyear.Cambodiaexpectstoseeanincreaseinitsmilledriceexportsin2023becauseofdemandfromChina;recoveringdemandfromtheEuropeanUnionaftertheremovalofthetariffonCambodianwhiterice;andtheemergenceofnewmarkets,includingBangladesh,althoughthelatestCambodiaEconomicUpdatewarnsthatoilandfoodpriceshockshavestartedtoaffectagriculturalproductionasfertilizerandpesticidepricesincrease.AlthoughfoodinflationislowerinCambodiathannon-foodinflation,poorerhouseholdsspendahigherpercentageoftheirincomeonfoodthanwealthierhouseholdsandarevulnerabletofoodpriceincreases.Meanwhile,inflationandconflictcontinuetothreatenfoodsecurityinEastAsiaandthePacific.ThePhilippines’rateintheindexforfoodandnonalcoholicbeverages.Inflationforfoodatthenationallevelincreasedto10.3(25.8percent)andthericeindex(3.1percent)wastheprimarydriveroftheincreaseinfoodinflation.ThePhilippines’averageinflationratefromJanuarytoNovember2022was5.6percent.ThePhilippinesregisteredthehighestheadlineinflationofitsregionalpeerssinceSeptember(Indonesia,5.9percent;Malaysia,4.5percent;ThailandpercentInLaoPDR,thepriceofporkincreasedby44.7percent,vegetablesby43.0percent,poultryby28.8percent,andbeefby21.3percent,accordingtotheVientianeTimes,puttingagreaterburdenonlow-incomefamilies.InTimor-Leste,foodinflationroseby8.2percentinSeptember2022.Higherfoodinflationwaspartlyduetohigheragriculturalinputcosts,includingfortransport,fertilizer,andanimalfeed.Althoughmostcommoditypriceshaveretreatedfromtheirpeaks,highfoodpricescontinuetoplacetheheaviestburdenonvulnerablecommunities.AccordingtotheJune2022roundoftheTimor-LesteHighFrequencyHouseholdPhoneSurvey,theprevalenceofmoderateorseverefoodinsecurityisestimatedat44.5percent.InMyanmar,high-intensityconflictpersistedduringthethirdquarterof2022,particularlyinthenorthwestandsoutheast,witheandCentralAsiaonEUproduction,trade(importsandexports),anddomesticuseofabroadrangeoffeedproteinsources.ThecurrentandpastmarketingyearsBasedonavailabledataforitisassumedthatfeeddemandwillremainstableat72milliontonnesofcrudeprotein.EUself-sufficiencyforteinisexpectedtoremainatpercentdespiteloweravailabilityofEUmaizeduetothissummer’sdrought.Inadditiontobeingofeconomicbenefitforfoodandfeedproducersandfarmers,developmentofplantproteinproductionintheEuropeanUnionhasarangeofenvironmentalbenefits.Inparticular,proteincropshelpfixtheatmosphere’snitrogeninthesoilandthereforeplayanimportantroleinamoresustainablenutrientcycle.Developmentofproteincropsand,moregenerally,reductioninEUdependencyvantnowthanevergiventhewarinUkraineandrecord-highfeedcosts.Initscommunicationonfoodsecurity,theEuropeanCommissionannounceditsintentiontoreviewthepolicyandprioritiesidentifiedinits2018reportondevelopmentofplantproteinsintheEuropeanUnion.ThedevelopmentofEUplantproteinproductionandconsumptionwillbeamongtheobjectivesoftheCommissioninthecomingmonths.AftertherenewaloftheBlackSeaGrainInitiativeontheexportofUkrainiangrainthroughUkraine’sBlackSeaedOnNovemberthefirstshipwithcargoforAfricancountriesleftaportintheNetherlands,accordingtotheofficialrepresentativeoftheUNSecretaryGeneral.Accordingtoreports,thefirstbatchof20,000tonnesoffertilizerisonitswaytoMalawiviaMozambiqueonthevesselMVGreenwich,charteredbytheUNWorldFoodProgram(WFP).Fertilizerpriceshavebeenrisingsharplyworldwide,andrisinginputcostscouldaffectnextseason’sharvest,leadingtohighfoodpricesinthelongrun.Russiaisoneoftheworld’smostimportantexportersofthethreemajorgroupsoffertilizers—nitrogen,ashighas2019levels,mainlybecauseofsurginginputcosts,supplydisruptions,andexportrestrictions.inAmericaandtheCaribbeanInColombia,sincetheRussianinvasionofUkraine,supplyshortageshavebeenrecurring,becausemorethan30ethatthepricesofinputsforthemanufactureoffertilizershaveincreasedbyupto80percent,whichhasincreasedfoodprices.Inthiscontext,somefertilizerimportsanddistributioncompanieshavegivenwarningsignsbecauseofthesupply,whichcouldnotbeguaranteedforthecomingmonths,eventhoughinventoriesaresufficientforthemoment.NewsreportsindicatethatVenezuelaispreparingtoexportfertilizersin2023.ThestatecompanyPequiven,whichsupplies100percentofthedemandofthenationalmarket,wouldproducethefertilizers.InPeru,droughtandfrostscoulddecreasepotatoproductionthisyearbyupto40percent,whichcouldleadtoamaandotherregionsofthecountrywarnedtheGuildfortheProtectionofCropsoftheChamberofCommerce