強(qiáng)化翻譯精講

第一部分考研翻譯（1990年——2015年1990年英譯漢試題Peoplehavewonderedforalongtimehowtheiralities，andbehaviorsareformed.Itisnoteasytoexplainwhyone isinligentandanotherisnot，orwhyoneiscooperativeandanotheriscompetitive.Socialscientistsare，ofcourse，extremelyinterestedinthesetypesofquestions.(61)Theywanttoexplainwhyossesscertaincharacteristicsandexhibitcertainbehaviors.Therearenoclearanswersyet，buttwodistinctschoolsofthoughtonthematterhavedeveloped.Asonemightexpect，thetwoapproachesareverydifferentfromeachother.Thecontroversyisoftenconvenientlyreferredtoas”naturevs.nurture”.(62)Thosewhosupportthe“nature”sideofthe believethatouralitiesandbehaviorpatternsarelargelydeterminedbybiologicalfactors.(63)Thatourenvironmenthaslittle，ifanything，todowithourabilities，characteristicsandbehavioriscentraltothistheory.Takentoanextreme，thistheorymaintainsthatourbehaviorispredeterminedtosuchagreatdegreethatwearealmostcomple ernedbyourinstincts.Thosewhosupportthe“nurture”theory，thatis，theyadvocateeducation，areoftencalledbehaviorists.Theyclaimthatourenvironmentismoreimportantthanourbiologicallybasedinstinctsindetermininghowwewillact.Abehaviorist，B.F.Skinner，seeshumansasbeingswhosebehaviorisalmostcomple yshapedbytheirsurroundings.Thebehavioristsmaintainthat，likemachines，humansrespondtoenvironmentalstimuliasthebasisoftheirbehavior.Letusexaminethedifferentexplanationsaboutonehumancharacteristic，inligence，offeredbythetwotheories.Supportersofthe“nature”theoryinsistthatwearebornwithacertaincapacityforlearningthatisbiologicallydetermined.Needlesstosay，theydon’tbelievethatfactorsintheenvironmenthavemuchinfluenceonwhatisbasicallyapredeterminedcharacteristic.Ontheotherhand，behavioristsarguethatourinligencelevelsaretheproductofourexperiences.(64)Behavioristssuggestthatthechildwhoisraisedinanenvironmentwheretherearemanystimuliwhichdevelophisorhercapacityforappropriateresponseswillexperiencegreaterinlectualdevelopment.Thesocialandpoliticalimplicationsofthesetwotheoriesareprofound.IntheUnitedblacksoftenscorebelowwhitesonstandardizedin ligencetests.Thisleadssome“nature”proponentstoconcludethatblacksarebiologicallyinferiortowhites.(65)Behaviorists，incontrast，saythatdifferencesinscoresareduetothefactthatblacksareoftendeprivedofmanyoftheeducationalandotherenvironmentaladvantagesthatwhitesenjoy.Mostpeoplethinkneitherofthesetheoriescanyetfullyexplainhuman1991年英譯漢試題Thefactisthattheenergycrisis，whichhassuddenlybeenofficiallyannounced，hasbeenwithusforalongtimenow，andwillbewithusforanevenlongertime.WhetherAraboilflowsfreelyornot，itiscleartoeveryonethatworldindustrycannotbeallowedtodependonsofragileabase.(71)Thesupplyofoilcanbeshutoffunexpectedlyatanytime，andinanycase，theoilwellswillallrundryinthirtyyearsorsoatthepresentrateofuse.Newsourcesofenergymustbefound，andthiswilltaketime，butitisnotlikelytoresultinanysituationthatwilleverrestorethaseofcheapandplentifulenergywehavehadinthetimespast.Foranindefiniteperiodfromhereon，mankindisgoingtoadvancecautiously，andconsideritselfluckythatitcanadvanceatall.Tomakethesituationworse，thereisasyetnosignthatanyslowingoftheworld’spopulationisinsight.Althoughthebirthratehasdroppedinsomenations，includingtheUnitedStates，thepopulationoftheworldseemssuretopasssixbillionandperhapsevensevenbillionasthetwenty-centuryopens.Thefoodsupplywillnotincreasenearlyenoughtomatchthis，whieansthatweheadingintoacrisisinthematterofproducingandmarketingTakingallthisintoaccount，whatmightwereasonablyestimatesupermarketstobelikeintheyear2001?Tobeginwith，theworldfoodsupplyisgoing esteadilytighteroverthenextyears—evenhereintheUnitedStates.By2001，thepopulationoftheUnitedStateswillbeatleasttwohundredfiftymillionandpossiblytwohundredseventymillion，andthenationwillfinditdifficulttoexpandfoodproductiontofilltheadditionalmouths.(74)ThiswillbeparticularlytruesinceenergypinchwillmakeitdifficulttocontinueagricultureinthehighenergyAmericanfashionthatmakesitpossibletocombinefewfarmerswithhighyields.Itseemsalmostcertainthatby2001theUnitedStateswillnolongerbeagreatfoodnationandthat，ifnecessityforcesexports，itwillbeatthepriceofbelttighteningattasvaretytheretobeincreasinguseofflavouringadditives.(75)Untilsuchtimeasmankindhasthesensetoloweritspopulationtothepointwheretheplanetcanprovideacomfortablesupportforall，peoplewillhavetoacceptmore“unnaturalfood”.1992年英譯漢試題“Inligence”atbestisanassumptiveconstruct—themeaningofthewordhasneverbeenclear.(71)Thereismoreagreementonthekindsofbehaviorreferredtobythetermthanthereisonhowtointerpretorclassifythem.Butitisgenerallyagreedthata ofhighinligenceisonewhocangraspideasreadily，makedistinctions，reasonlogically，andmakeuseofverbalandmathematicalsymbolsinsolvingproblems.Aninligence aroughmeasureofachild’scapacityforlearningthekindsofthingsrequiredinschool.Itdoesnotmeasurecharacter，socialadustentphyscalndurancemanualskilsordesignedforsuchpurposes.(72)Tocriticizeitforsuchfailureisroughlycomparabletocriticizingathermometerfornotmeasuringwindvelocity.Theotherthingwehavetonoticeisthattheassessmentoftheinligenceofanysubjectisessentiallyacomparativeaffair.Nowsincetheassessmentofinligenceisacomparativematterwemustbesurethatthescalewithwhichwearecomparingoursubjectsprovidesa“valid”or“fair”comparison.Itisherethatsomeofthedifficultieswhichinterestusbegin.Anytestperformedinvolvesatleastthreefactors:theintentiontodoone’sbest，theknowledgerequiredforunderstandingwhatyouhavetodo，andtheinlectualabilitytot.(74)Thetwomustbeequalforallwhoarebeingcompared，ifanycomparisonintermsofinligenceistobemade.Inschoolpopulationsinourculturetheseassumptionscanbemadefairandreasonable，andthevalueofinligencetestinghasbeenprovedthoroughly.Itsvaluelies，ofcourse，initsprovidingasatisfactorybasisforprediction.Nooneisintheleastinterestedinthemarksalittlechildgetsonhistest;whatweareinterestediniswhetherwecanconcludefromhismarkonthetestthatthechildwilldobetterorworsethanotherchildrenofhisageattaskswhichwethinkrequire“generalinligence”.(75)Onthewholesuchaconclusioncanbedrawnwithacertaindegreeofconfidence，butonlythechildcanbeassumedtohavehadthesameattitudetowardsthetestastheotherswithwhomheisbeingcompared，andonlyifhewasnotpunishedbylackofrelevantinformationwhichthey1993年英譯漢試題(71)Themethodofscientificinvestigationisnothingbuttheexpressionofthenecessarymodeofworkingofthehumanmind;itissimplythemodebywhichallphenomenaarereasonedaboutandgivenpreciseandexactexplanation.Thereisnomoredifference，butthereisjustthesamekindofdifference，betweenthementaloperationsofamanofscienceandthoseofan ，asthereisbetweentheoperationsandmethodsofabakerorofabutcherweighingouthisgoodsincommonscales，andtheoperationsofachemistinperformingadifficultandcomplexysisbymeansofhisbalanceandfinelygradedweights.(72)Itisnotthatthescalesintheonecase，andthebalanceintheother，differintheprinciplesoftheirconstructionormannerofworking;butthatthelatterismuchfinerapparatusandofcoursemuchmoreaccurateinitsmeasurementthantheformer.Youwillunderstandthisbetter，perhaps，ifIgiveyousomefamiliarexamples73)Youhaveallhearditrepeatedthatmenofscienceworkbymeansofinduction（歸納法）anddeduction，thatbythehelpoftheseoperations，they，inasortofsense，managetoextractfromNaturecertainnaturallaws，andthatoutofthese，bysomespecialskilloftheirown，theybuilduptheirtheories.Anditisimaginedbymanythattheoperationsofthecommonmindcanbebynomeanscomparedwiththeseprocesses，andthattheyhavetobeacquiredbyasortofspecialtraining.Tohearalltheselargewords，youwouldthinkthatthemindofamanofsciencemustbeconstituteddifferentlyfromthatofhisfellowmen;butifyouwillnotbefrightenedbyterms，youwilldiscoverthatyouarequitewrong，andthatalltheseterribleapparatusarebeingusedbyyourselveseverydayandeveryhourofyourlives.Thereisawell-knownincidentinoneofMoliere’splays，wheretheauthormakestheheroexpressunboundeddelightonbeingtoldthathehadbeentalkingprose（散文）duringthewholeofhislifeInthesameway，Itrustthatyouwilltakecomfort，andbedelightedwithyourselves，onthediscoverythatyouhavebeenactingontheprinciplesofinductiveanddeductivephilosophyduringthesameperiod.(75)Probablythereisnotoneherewhohasnotinthecourseofthedayhadoccasiontosetinmotionacomplextrainofreasoning，oftheverysamekind，thoughdifferingindegree，asthatwhichascientificmangoesthroughintracingthecausesofnatural1994年英譯漢試題Accordingtothenewschoolofscientists,technologyisanoverlookedforceinexpandingthehorizonsofscientificknowledge.(71)Sciencemovesforward,theysay,notsomuchthroughtheinsightsofgreatmenofgeniusasbecauseofmoreordinarythingslikeimprovedtechniquesandtools.(72)“Inshort”,aleaderofthenewschoolcontends,“thescientificrevolution,aswecallit,waslargelytheimprovementandinventionanduseofaseriesofinstrumentsthatexpandedthereachofscienceininnumerabledirections.”(73)Overtheyears,toolsandtechnologythemselvesasasourceoffundamentalinnovationhavelargelybeenignoredbyhistoriansandphilosophersofscience.ThemodernschoolthathailstechnologyarguesthatsuchmastersasGalileo,Newton,Maxwell,Einstein,andinventorssuchasEdisonattachedgreatimportanceto,andderivedgreatbenefitfrom,craftinformationandtechnologicaldevicesofdifferentkindsthatwereusableinscientificexperiments.Thecenterpieceoftheargumentofatechnology-yes,genius-noadvocatewasanysisofGalileo'sroleatthestartofthescientificrevolution.ThewisdomofthedaywasderivedfromPtolemy,anastronomerofthesecondcentury,whoseelaboratesystemoftheskyputEarthatthecenterofallheavenlymotions.(74)Galileo'sgreatestglorywasthatin1609hewasthe toturnthenewlyinventedescopeontheheavenstoprovethattheplanetsrevolvearoundthesunratherthanaroundtheEarth.Buttherealheroofthestory,accordingtothenewschoolofscientists,wasthelongevolutionintheimprovementofmachineryformakingeyeglasses.Federalpolicyisnecessarilyinvolvedinthetechnologyvs.geniusdispute.(75)Whethertheernmentshouldincreasethefinancingofpurescienceattheexpenseoftechnologyorviceversaoftendependsontheissueofwhichisseenasthedriving1995年英譯漢試題Thestandardizededucationalorpsychologicalteststhatarewidelyusedtoaidinselecting,classifying,assigning,orpromotingstudents,employees,andmilitary nelhavebeentheofrecentattacksinbooks,magazines,thedailypress,andevenincongress.(71)Theiswrong,forinattackingthetests,criticsdivertattentionfromthefaultthatlieswithill-informed petentusers.Theteststhemselvesaremerelytools,withcharacteristicsthatcanbemeasuredwithreasonableprecisionunderspecifiedconditions.Whethertheresultswillbevaluable,meaningless,orevenmisleadingdependspartlyuponthetoolitselfbutlargelyupontheAllinformedpredictionsoffutureperformancearebaseduponsomeknowledgeofrelevantpastperformance:schoolgradesresearchproductive,salesrecords,orwhateverisappropriate.(72)Howwellthepredictionswillbevalidatedbylaterperformancedependsupontheamount,reliability,andappropriatenessoftheinformationusedandontheskillandwisdomwithwhichitisinterpreted.AnyonewhokeepscarefulscoreknowsthattheinformationavailableispleteandthatthepredictionsarealwayssubjecttoStandardizedtestsshouldbeconsideredinthiscontext.Theyprovideaquick,objectivemethodofgettingsomekidsofinformationaboutwhata learned,theskillshehasdeveloped,orthekindsof heis.Theinformationsoobtainedhas,qualitatively,thesameadvantagesand ingsasotherkindsofinformation.(73)Whethertousetests,otherkindsofinformation,orbothinaparticularsituationdepends,therefore,upontheevidencefromexperienceconcerningcomparativevalidityanduponsuchfactorsascostandavailability.Ingeneral,thetestsworkmosteffectivelywhenthequalitiestobemeasuredcanbemostpreciselydefinedandleasteffectivelywhenwhatistobemeasuredorpredictedcannotbewelldefined.Properlyused,theyprovidearapidmeansofgettingcomparableinformationaboutmanypeople.Sometimestheyidentifystudentswhosehighpotentialhasnotbeenpreviouslyrecognized,buttherearemanythingstheydonotdo.(75)Forexample,theydonotcompensateforgrosssocialinequality,andthusdonot lhowableanunderprivilegedyoungstermighthavebeenhadhegrownupundermorefavorablecircumstances.1996年英譯漢試題Thedifferencesinrelativegrowthofvariousareasofscientificresearchhaveseveral(71)Someofthesecausesarecompleyreasonableresultsofsocialneeds.Othersarereasonableconsequencesofparticularadvancesinsciencebeingtosomeextentself-accelerating.Some,however,arelessreasonableprocessesofdifferentgrowthinwhichpreconceptionsoftheformscientifictheoryoughttotake,by sinauthority,acttoalterthegrowthpatternofdifferentareas.Thisisanewproblemprobablynotyetunavoidable;butitisafrighteningtrend.(72)ThistrendbeganduringtheSecondWorldWar,whenseveralernmentscametotheconclusionthatthespecificdemandsthataernmentwantstomakeofitsscientificestablishmentcannotgenerallybeforeseenindetail.Itcanbepredicted,however,thatfromtimetotimequestionswillarisewhichwillrequirespecificscientificanswers.Itisthereforegenerallyvaluabletotreatthescientificestablishmentasaresourceormachinetobekeptinfunctionalorder.(73)Thisseemsmostlyeffectivelydonebysupportingacertainamountofresearchnotrelatedtoimmediategoalsbutofpossibleconsequenceinthefuture.Thiskindofsupport,likeallernmentsupport,requiresdecisionsabouttheappropriaterecipientsoffunds.Decisionsbasedonutilityasopposedtolackofutilityarestraightforward.Butadecisionamongprojectsnoneofwhichhasimmediateutilityismoredifficult.Thegoalofthesupportingagenciesisthepraisableoneofsupporting“good”asopposedto“bad”science,butavaliddeterminationisdifficulttomake.Generally,theideaofgoodsciencetendsto confusedwiththecapacityofthefieldinquestiontogenerateaneleganttheory.(74)However,theworldissomadethaegantsystemsareinprincipleunabletodealwithsomeoftheworld'smorefascinatinganddelightfulaspects.(75)Newformsofthoughtaswellasnewsubjectsforthoughtmustariseinthefutureastheyhaveinthepast,givingrisetonewstandardsofelegance.1997年英譯漢試題Doanimalshaverights?Thisishowthequestionisusuallyput.Itsoundslikeauseful,ground-clearingwaytostart.(71)Actually,itisn't,becauseitassumesthatthereisanagreedaccountof,whichissomethingtheworlddoesnothave.Ononeviewofrights,tobesure,itnecessarilyfollowsthatanimalshavenone.(72)Somephilosophersarguethatrightsexistonlywithinasocialcontract,aspartofanexchangeofdutiesandentitlements.Therefore,animalscannothaverights.Theideaofpunishingatigerthatkillssomebodyisabsurd;forexactlythesamereason,soistheideathattigershaverights.However,thisisonlyoneaccount,andbynomeansanuncontestedone.Itdeniesrightsnotonlytoanimalsbutalsotosomepeople—forinstance,toinfants,thementallyincapableandfuturegenerations.Inaddition,itisunclearwhatforceacontractcanhaveforpeoplewhoneverconsentedtoit:howdoyoureplytosomebodywhosays“Idon'tlikethiscontract”?Thepointisthis:withoutagreementontherightsofpeople,arguingabouttherightsofanimalsisfruitless.(73)Itleadsthediscussiontoextremesattheoutset:itinvitesyoutothinkthatanimalsshouldbetreatedeitherwiththeconsiderationhumansextendtootherhumans,orwithnoconsiderationatall.Thisisafalsechoice.Bettertostartwithanother,morefundamental,question:isthewaywetreatanimalsamoralissueatManydenyit.(74)Arguingfromtheviewthathumansaredifferentfromanimalsineveryrelevantrespect,extremistsofthiskindthinkthatanimalslieoutsidetheareaofmoralchoice.Anyregardforthesufferingofanimalsisseenasamistake—asentimentaldisplacementoffeelingthatshouldproperlybedirectedtootherhumans.Thisview,whichholdsthattorturingamonkeyismorallyequivalenttochopwood,mayseembravely“l(fā)ogical”.Infactitissimplyshallow:theconfusedcenterisrighttorejectit.Themostelementaryformofmoralreasoning—theethicalequivalentoflearningtocrawl—istoweighothers'interestsagainstone'sown.Thisinturnrequiressympathyandimagination:withoutwhichthereisnocapacityformoralthought.Toseeananimalinpainisenough,formost,toengagesympathy.(75)Whenthathappens,itisnotamistake:itismankind'sinstinctformoralreasoninginaction,aninstinctthatshouldbeencouragedratherthanlaughedat.1998年英譯漢試題Theywere,byfar,thelargestandmostdistantobjectsthatscientistshadeverdetected:astripofenormouscosmiccloudssome15billionlight-yearsfromearth.(71)Butevenmoreimportant,itwasthefarthestthatscientistshadbeenabletolookintothepast,forwhattheywereseeingwerethepatternsandstructuresthatexisted15billionyearsago.Thatwasjustaboutthemomentthattheuniversewasborn.Whattheresearchersfoundwasatoncebothamazingandexpected;theUSNationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration'sCosmicBackgroundExplorersalite—Cobe—haddiscoveredlandmarkevidencethattheuniversedidinfactbeginwiththeprimevalexplosionthathas eknownastheBigBang(thetheorythattheuniverseoriginatedinanexplosionfromasinglemassofenergy.)(72)TheexistenceofthegiantcloudswasvirtuallyrequiredfortheBigBang,forwardinthe1920s,tomaintainitsreignasthedominantexplanationofthecosmos.Accordingtothetheory,theuniverseburstintobeingasasubmicroscopic,unimaginabledenseknotofpureenergythatflewoutwardinalldirections,emittingradiationasitwent,condensingintoparticlesandthenintoatomsofgas.Overbillionsofyears,thegaswascompressedbygravityintogalaxies,stars,plantsandeventully,evenhumans.Cobeisdesignedtoseejustthebiggeststructures,butastronomerswouldliketoseemuchsmallerhotspotsaswell,theseedsoflocalobjectslikeclustersandsuperclustersofgalaxies.Theyshouldn'thavelongtowait.(73)Astrophysicistsworkingwithground-baseddetectorsattheSouthPoleandballoon-borneinstrumentsareclosinginonsuchstructures,andmayreporttheirfindingssoon.(74)Ifthesmallhotspotslookasexpected,thatwillbeatriumphforyetanotherscientificidea,arefinementoftheBigBangcalledtheinflationaryuniversetheory.Inflationsaysthatveryearlyon,theuniverseexpandedinsizebymorethanatrilliontrilliontrilliontrillionfoldinmuchlessthanasecond,propelledbyasortofantigravity.(75)Oddthoughitsounds,cosmicinflationisascientificallyplausibleconsequenceofsomerespectedideasinelementary-particlephysics,andmanyastrophysicistshavebeenconvincedforthebetterpartofadecadethatitistrue.1999年英譯漢試題Whiletherearealmostasmanydefinitionsofhistoryastherearehistorians,modernpracticemostcloselyconformstoonethatseeshistoryastheattempttorecreateandexplainthesignificanteventsofthepast.Caughtinthewebofitsowntimeandplace,eachgenerationofhistoriansdeterminesanewwhatissignificantforitinthepast.Inthissearchtheevidencefoundisalways pleteandscattered;itisalsofrequentlypartialorpartisan.Theironyofthehistorian'scraftisthatitspractitionersalwaysknowthattheireffortsarebutcontributionstoanunendingprocess.Interestinhistoricalmethodshasarisenlessthroughexternalchallengetothevalidityofhistoryasaninlectualdisciplineandmorefrominternalquarrelsamonghistoriansthemselves.Whilehistoryoncerevereditsaffinitytoliteratureandphilosophy,theemergingsocialsciencesseemedtoaffordgreateropportunitiesforaskingnewquestionsandprovidingrewardingapproachestoanunderstandingofthepast.Socialsciencemethodologieshadtobeadaptedtoadisciplineernedbytheprimacyofhistoricalsourcesratherthantheimperativesofthecontemporaryworld.(73)Duringthistransfer,traditionalhistoricalmethodswereaugmentedbyadditionalmethodologiesdesignedtointerpretthenewformsofevidenceinthehistoricalstudy.Methodolgyisatermthatremainsinherentlyambiguousinthehistoricalprofession.Thereisnoagreementwhethermethodologyreferstotheconceptspeculiartohistoricalworkingeneralortotheresearchtechniquesappropriatetothevariousbranchesofhistoricalinquiry.Historians,especiallythosesoblindedbytheirresearchintereststhattheyhavebeenaccusedof“tunnelmethod,”frequentlyfallvictimtothe“technicistfallacy.”Alsocommoninthenaturalsciences,thetechnicistfallacymistakenlyidentifiesthedisciplineasawholewithcertainpartsofitstechnicalimplementation.(75)Itappliesequallytotraditionalhistorianswhoviewhistoryasonlytheexternalandinternalcriticismofsources,andtosocialsciencehistorianswhoequatetheiractivitywithspecifictechniques.2000年英譯漢試題ernmentsthroughouttheworldactontheassumptionthatthewelfareoftheirpeopledependslargelyontheeconomicstrengthandwealthofthecommunity.(71)Undermodernconditions,thisrequiresvaryingmeasuresofcentralizedcontrolandhencethehelpofspecializedscientistssuchaseconomistsandoperationalresearchexperts.(72)Furthermore,itisobviousthatthestrengthofacountry'seconomyisdirectlyboundupwiththeefficiencyofitsagricultureandindustry,andthatthisinturnrestsupontheeffortsofscientistsandtechnologistsofallkinds.Italsomeansthaternmentsareincreasinglycompelledtointerfereinthesesectorsinordertostepupproductionandensurethatitisutilizedtothebestadvantage.Forexample,theymayencourageresearchinvariousways,includingthesettingupoftheirownresearchcenters;theymayalterthestructureofeducation,orinterfereinordertoreducethewastageofnaturalresourcesortapresourceshithertounexploited;ortheymaycooperatedirectlyinthegrowingnumberofinternationalprojectsrelatedtoscience,economicsandindustry.Inanycase,allsuchinterventionsareheavilydependentonscientificadviceandalsoscientificandtechnologicalmanpowerofallkinds.Owingtotheremarkabledevelopment//inmasscommunications,//peoplearefeelingnewwants//andarebeingexposedtonewcustomsandideas,///whileernmentsareoftenforcedto//introducestillfurtherinnovations//forthereasonsgivenabove.Atthesametime,thenormalrateofsocialchangethroughouttheworldistakingplaceatavastlyacceleratedspeedcomparedwiththepast.Forexample,(74)intheearlyindustrializedcountriesofEuropetheprocessofindustrialization—withallthefarreachingchangesinsocialpatternsthatfollowed—wasspreadovernearlyacentury,whereasnowadaysadevelonationmayundergothesameprocessinadecadeorso.Allthishastheeffectofbuildingupunusualpressuresandtensionswithinthecommunityandconsequentlypresentsseriousproblemsfortheernmentsconcerned.(75)Additionalsocialstressesmayalsooccurbecauseofthepopulationexplosionorproblemsarisingfrommassmigrationmovements—themselvesmaderelativelyeasynowadaysbymodernmeansoftransport.Asaresultofallthesefactors,ernmentsare ingincreasinglydependentonbiologistsandsocialscientistsforplanningtheappropriateprogramsandputtingthemintoeffect.2001年英譯漢試題Inlessthan30years'timetheStarTrekholodeckwillbeareality.Directlinksbetweenthebrain'snervoussystemandacomputerwillalsocreatefullsensoryvirtualenvironments,allowingvirtualvacationslikethoseinthefilmTotalRecall.(71)Therewillbeevisionchatshowshostedbyrobots,andcarswithpollutionthatwilldisablethemwhentheyoffend.(72)Childrenwillplaywithdollsequippedwithalitychips,computerswithin-builtalitieswillberegardedasworkmatesrathertools,relaxationwillbeinfrontofsmell-evision,anddigitalagewillhaveAccordingtoBT'sfuturologist,IanPearson,theseareamongthedevelopmentsscheduledforthefewdecadesofthenewmillennium(aperiodof1,000years),when puterswilldramaticallyaccelerateprogressinallareasoflife.(73)Pearsonhaspiecedtogethertheworkofhundredsofresearchersaroundtheworldtoproduceauniquemillenniumtechnologycalendarthatgivesthelatestdateswhenwecanexpecthundredsofkeybreakthroughsanddiscoveriestotakeplace.Someofthebiggestdevelopmentswillbeinmedicine,includinganextendedlifeexpectancyanddozensofartificialorganscomingintousebetweennowand2040.Pearsonalsopredictsabreakthroughincomputer-humanlinks.“Bylinkingdirectlytoournervoussystem,computerscouldpickupwhatwefeeland,hopefully,simulatefeelingtoosothatwecanstarttodevelopfullsensoryenvironments,ratherliketheholidaysinTotalRecallortheStarTrekholodeck,”hesays.(74)Butthat,Pearsonpointsout,isonlythestartofman-machineintegration:“Itwillbethebeginningofthelongprocessofintegrationthatwillultimayleadtoafullyelectronichumanbefore ofthenextcentury.”Throughhisresearch,Pearsonisabletoputdatestomostofthebreakthroughsthatcanbepredicted.However,therearestillnoforecastsforwhenfaster-than-lighttravelwillbeavailable,orwhenhumancloningwillbeperfected,orwhentimetravelwillbepossible.Buthedoesexpectsocialproblemsasaresultoftechnologicaladvances.Aboominneighborhoodsurveillancecameraswill,forexample,causeproblems