申萬海外研究報(bào)告庫申萬地產(chǎn)china overseas

1、SWS Research Co. is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan 99EastNanjingRoad,+86212329RealEstate|BringingChinatothe23AugustThestronggetCHINAOVERSEASLAND&INVESTMENT(688MarketData:Aug,FinancialndClosing Price Price Revenue YOY52-week High/Low e EPS Market Cap (HK$ CoreEPSShares Outstanding ROE Exchange Rate

2、 (RMB-Price Performance -Core EPS is calculated as if all non-recurring items are excluded. P/E is calculated as closing price divided by each years core State-owned developer China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI) reported 1H16 results largely in line with our expectation, with a positive surprise

3、 on the dividend payment. Revenue up 21% YoY to HK$78.15bn, and core earnings climbed 16% YoY to HK$15.79bn. We maintain our full-year EPS forecasts of Rmb3.66 in 16E, Rmb4.03 in 17E and Rmb4.71 in 18E. Ourprice is unchanged at HK$33.60 and we maintain our BUY rating.Source: RelatedChina Overseas La

4、nd & Investment (688 HK )SentimentreplenishmentApril19,ChinaOverseasLand&Investment (688 HK )Room to Spread outMarch21,China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK )Room to growOctober27,ChinaOverseasLand&Investment (688HK)BuildingLeadership August 20, 2015Thecompanydoesnotholdanyequitiesor derivativeso

5、fthelistedcompanymentioned in this report (“”), but then we shall provide financial advisory services subject to the relevant laws and regulations. Any affiliates ofthe companymayhold equities of the , whiay exceed 1 percent of issued shares subject to the relevant laws and regulations. The company

6、may alsoprovideinvestmentbankingservicesto the . The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact complianceswsresearchcomforrelevant disclosure materials or log intoundercolumn for further information. The clients shallhaveacomprehensiveunderstandi

7、ng of the disclosure and dier upon the lastpage.Dividend surprise. Gross margin reached 28.2% in 1H16, down c.4ppts YoY but up 2.5ppts HoH. Underlying EPS edged up from HK$1.59 in 1H15 to HK$1.60 in 1H16 due to the impact of share dilution, but the company proposed a 75% YoY increase in interim divi

8、dend to HK$0.35 (vs our expectation of c.25% YoY). Meanwhile, with cash on hand further rising to HK$118bn and a decline in total debt to HK$104bn, COLI reported a net cash position by end-June 2016.CITIC deal to be finished by yearend. Chairman Hao Jianmin stated that the acquisition of the residen

9、tial-focused property development projects from CITIC (with a total consideration at c.HK$100bn, including an issue of c.1.1bn new shares to CITIC at HK$27.13/shr) is now pending regulatory approval and will be completed before yearend. In particular, he highlighted that COLI has already taken over

10、c.25 projects in the portfolio with an attributable size at 24m sqm and that of these, a number have begun sales.Upward revision of 2016 sales . Due to the contribution from the CITIC portfolio and Chinas stronger-than-expected property market this year, COLI announced at the yst meeting following r

11、elease of results that it raised its 2016 contract sales by c.17% from HK$180bn (flat with 2015) to HK$210bn. Hao noted investor concerns over COLIs seemingly slower-than-peers sales growth in 1H16 (11% YoY vs sector average of c.50% YoY), pointing out that COLI is expanding selectively with a great

12、er focus on profitability rather than focusing primarily on turnover.Margin confidence. InresponsetoconcernsthatCOLIsgrossmarginremained below 30% in 1H16, Hao stated his strong conviction that the companys full-year gross margin would exceed 30%, with particular confidence in the companys longer-te

13、rm margin growth prospects. COLI acquired just four land parcels from the open market in 1H16 as the land market overheated, spending just Rmb8.2bn, and the company aims to replenish land banks in future (currently at 34m sqm without taking CITIC portfolio into account) by pursuing mergers and acqui

14、sitions (M&A) rather than looking to the open market.Maintain BUY. COLI has acquired sizeable reserves from CITIC at decent cost, while its ability to secure land through further M&A, supported by its state-owned background and financial strength, promise steady and sustained earnings growth. We mai

15、ntain our EPS forecasts of Rmb3.66 in 16E (+1.4% YoY), Rmb4.03 in 17E (+10.1% YoY) and Rmb4.71 in 18E (+16.9% YoY). We maintain our discount to net asset value (NAV) for COLI at zero, retaining our previousprice at HK$33.60. With 25.1% upside, we maintain our rInr)157.9 16%32.2%4 影響，公司每股 凈利自去年上半年的 1

16、.591.60港元，而與此同時(shí)，公司 派發(fā)中期股息同比大漲 75%35港仙，大幅超過我 20161800億港元（2015年基本持平）17%2100 億港元（17%）。此外，針對(duì)相比同業(yè)略顯的銷售增速（600 950 億港元，同比增長(zhǎng)約 11%，相比行業(yè)平均銷售同比增速則達(dá) 50%），公司管理層二線城市土地價(jià)格不斷飆升的熱潮 海外在今年上半年放緩了在公開市場(chǎng)82 億元 4 個(gè)項(xiàng)目，而與此同時(shí)，收并購將繼續(xù)成為公司增加土地儲(chǔ)備的重要 （若不考慮此次收購中信目標(biāo)資產(chǎn)的貢獻(xiàn)，公司目前的土地儲(chǔ)備合計(jì)約 3400 萬方）。元（同比增長(zhǎng) 1.4%）、4.03 港元（同比增長(zhǎng) 10.1%）4.71 港元（同比

17、增長(zhǎng) 本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用1H16State-owned developer China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI) reported 1H16 results largely in line with our expectation, with a positive surprise on the dividend payment. Revenue 21% YoY to HK$78.15bn, and core earnings climbed 16% YoY to HK$15.79bn. We

18、maintain our full-year EPS forecasts of Rmb3.66 in 16E, Rmb4.03 in 17E and Rmb4.71 in 18E. Our price is unchanged at HK$33.60 and we maintain our BUY rating.Dividend surprise. Gross margin reached 28.2% in 1H16, down c.4ppts YoY but 2.5ppts HoH. Underlying EPS edged up from HK$1.59 in 1H15 to HK$1.6

19、0 in 1H16 due to the impact of share dilution, but the company proposed a 75% YoY increase in interim dividend to HK$0.35 (vs our expectation of c.25% YoY).Net cash position. Thecompanywas inanetcashpositionfor the timeinmore than ten years, mainly due to improved liquidity in China and sales procee

20、ds collection increased substantially to HK$72.1bn, with cash on hand up from HK$102bn as of end-2015 to HK$118bn as of end-June 2016, while total borrowing dropped from HK$115bn to HK$104bn during the period. The average borrowing cost recorded 3.97% in 1H16, the lowest level in the industry.FigFig

21、 1: Revenue and underlying net profitwith corresponding Fig2:GrossandnetprofitmarginsandexpenseHK$ HK$ - %Chg YoYof%ChgYoYofunderlying netGrossprofitUnderlyingnetprofitSG&A as%ofHK$ Net Source:Companydata,SWSSource:CompanyHK$ Net FigFig3:DPS,coreEPSandpay-outFig4:Cash,debtandnetgearingCore Pay-out r

22、atio Interest-bearing Net gearing ratioSource:Companydata,SWSSource:Companydata,SWS本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用CITICdealtobefinishedbyChairman Hao Jianmin stated that the acquisition of the residential-focused property development projects from CITIC (with a total consideration at c.HK$100

23、bn, including an issue of c.1.1bn new shares to CITIC at HK$27.13/shr) is now pending regulatory approval and will be completed before yearend.In particular, he highlighted that COLI has already taken over c.25 projects in the portfolio with an attributable size at 24m sqm and that of these, a numbe

24、r have begun sales.Fig5:CitiescoveredbyCITICRealFig6:BreakdownbyregionsofCITICs24mnsqmland Pearl River PanBohaiOther tze River Source:Companydata,SWSSource:Companydata,SWSUpwardrevisionof2016sales Due to the contribution from the CITIC portfolio and Chinas stronger-than-expected property market this

25、 year, COLI announced at the yst meeting following release of results that it raised its 2016 contract sales by c.17% from HK$180bn (flat with 2015) to HK$210bn. Hao noted investor concerns over COLIs seemingly slower-than-peers sales growth in 1H16 (11% YoY vs sector average ofc.50% YoY), pointing

26、outthatCOLIisexpanding selectively withagreater focus on profitability rather than focusing primarily on turnover.contractedsalesduringeachperiod in1H16 % %1H16 ofCR Country Sino-688Source:Companydata,SWS本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用In response to concerns thatCOLIsgross margin remained bel

27、ow 30% in 1H16, Hao stated hisstrongconvictionthat thecompanysfull-yeargross marginwouldexceed 30%, with particular confidence in the companys longer-term margin growth prospects.COLIacquiredjust four landparcels from theopen market in1H16 as the land market overheated, spending just Rmb8.2bn, and t

28、he company aims to replenish land banks in future (currently at 34m sqm without taking CITIC portfolio into account) by pursuing mergers and acquisitions (M&A) rather than looking to the open market.Fig 8: Land replenishment as % of contacted 8CR Country 378489954745Sino-9841743426833Source:Companyd

29、ata,SWS%COLI has acquired sizeable reserves from CITIC at decent cost, while its ability to secure land through further M&A, supported by its state-owned background and financial strength, promise steady and sustained earnings growth.We maintain our EPS forecasts of Rmb3.66 in 16E (+1.4% YoY), Rmb4.

30、03 in 17E (+10.1% YoY) and Rmb4.71 in 18E (+16.9% YoY).We maintain our discount to net asset value (NAV) for COLI at zero, retaining our previous price at HK$33.60. With 25.1% upside, we maintain our Fig9:ValuationFig9:ValuationandMarket PB 688CR1109O-3333U-1 Country 2007813O-Sino-33770 2777U-0 0 18

31、13O-Source:Bloomberg,Companydata,SWS本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用Appendix1:SummaryofCITICFig1:CompletedpropertiesheldbytheCITICGroupforYearof CITIC Harbour Apartment, CITIC CITIC Park City Phase I-2014-CITIC City Plaza Phase CITIC Fuchun Residential, commercial, CITICYuyuguan CITICTriumphRe

32、sidenceDongguan3682013- CITIC Guanlan Triumph TownCommercial, carpark DongtaiGardenResidential, commercial, carpark Forest Lake Lanxi ValleyResidential, carpark- 100% - CITICSunshineAoyuguan Commercial, carpark 321 2004 - 100% - CITICLa Defense Dongguan Carpark 1,004 2010 - 100% -Dongguan CITIC Comm

33、ercial Plaza4,754 CITIC Jinshan Bay Phase Residential, commercial, Residential, commercial, Guangzhou Asian Games CityResidential, commercial, carpark Guangzhou Asian Games City, Plot Residential, commercial, CITIC Triumph CITIC West Bank CITIC Golden Coast Phase I-2012-CITIC Huating Phase I-Residen

34、tial, commercial, 2013-ShantouCITICNanbingGrandHo 1993-CITIC Mangrove Bay Garden Residential, commercial, ShenzouPeninsula (United Part)Golfcourse Shenzou Peninsula (Jinxin ResidentialShenzou Peninsula (Renhe Residential, ho 2011-Shenzou Peninsula (Renxin CITIC Triumph Villa, commercial, Ho ,CITIC H

35、arbour 2013-Chongqing CITIC Yantai Yinzhi Beijing GuotaiNew Westgate Garden Phase Shanghai Zhujiege Plot 2012-ShanghaiZhujiegePlotD20 Shanghai Zhujiege Plot A2- Shanghai Zhujiege Plot A5-Villa, Shanghai Zhujiege Plot D2-3- Shanghai Zhujiege Plot Residential, townhouse, Suzhou Forest Lake Residential

36、, commercial, zhou Jinyuan Phase I- carpark, bicycle parkForest Lake Phase I- 2012-Lushan 2013-Changchun CITIC CITIC City West Residential, commercial, Commercial, CITIC Triumph City (West Commercial, CITIC New Town City Plaza Phase Commercial, CITIC Triumph Town Phase Shanghai Zhujiege Plot 2012-CI

37、TIC Mangrove Bay Source:Bloomberg,Companydata,SWS本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用FigFig2:PropertiesheldbytheCITICGroupunderYearGFAcost (Rmb Attr. CITIC Park City Phase II-CITICCityPlazaPhase HuangjiangPlot CITIC Jinshan Bay Phase kindergarten, carpark, hoAsian Games City Plot Asian Games City

38、Plot D Block 8- CITIC Mangrove Bay CITIC Southern Airlines Lushan Xihai Phase CITIC Harbour CITIC Huating Phase CITIC Binjiang InternationalPlaza Shenzou Peinsula (Jinxin Shenzou Peinsula (Renhe Beijing CITIC Suzhou Huanxiu Lake zhou Jiayuan Phase zhou Jinyuan Phase Shanghai Zhujiege Plot Shanghai Z

39、hujiege Plot A2-semi-detached Shanghai Zhujiege Plot D3- Shanghai Zhujiege Plot TaiLake Zhongxin Qingdao CITIC City Phase CITIC City East CITIC Triumph Town (East CITIC Wanjin City Phase Source:Bloomberg,Companydata,SWS本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用Fig3:PropertiesheldbytheCITICGroupforfuture

40、Planned Marketvalueinexisting state (Rmb mn)Attr. Markte value in CITIC Harbour City Taigu Apartment, CITIC Park City Phase IV-XI Apartment, office, hocommercial, CITIC City Plaza Phase III- Residential, commercial, ho Guangzhou Asian Games CITIC City East Hongzhou CITIC City Plaza CITIC Huating Pha

41、se ShenzhenBaoheProjectResidential, commercial- ZhuhaiFreeTaxZoneShenzou Peninsula (Renhe Shenzou Peninsula (Renxin Shenzou Peninsula (Reian Yantai CITIC CITIC New Town (Beijing Yizhuang Primary Development Project)JiangduPlotResidential, commercial Suzhou Taihu Suzhou Mudu Residential,Residential,

42、Shanghai Jiading Nanxiang Chenxiang Road Complex HuangshanTaiLakeZhongxin zhou Jiayuan Phase zhou Jiayuan Phase Ecological Health Town Plot PhaseIII CITIC QingdaoCITICCityPhase Qingdao CITIC CityPhase ForestLakePhaseIV& Shenzou Peninsula (Jinxin HuizhouCITIC Harbour CITIC Triumph Town Commercial, Lu

43、shan andSource:Bloomberg,Companydata,SWS本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用Appendix2:CompanyFigure1:eProperty Property CostofGross Revaluation Gains on assets Finance ProfitbeforeTax IncProfitforthe Minority Profitattrto Basic 0 Source:Companydata,SWS Investment InterestsinJVandNon-current Proper

44、ties under Pre-paid land Cashandcash TotalShare capital and Majority Minority TotalSenior Non-current Advanced sales Tax TotalTotalequityandSource:Companydata,SWS montIner(oitornerCash generated from/(used in) NetcashgeneratedfromoperatingNetcashgeneratedfromInvesting00 4 000NetNetcashgeneratedfromf

45、inancingIncreaseincashandcashCash and cash equivalents at beginning of Exchange losses on cash and cash CashandcashequivalentsatendoftheSource: Company data, SWS 本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用The views expressed in this report accuray reflect al views of the yst. The yst declares that neithe

46、r he/she nor his/her serves as an officer of nor has any financial interests in relation to the listed corporation reviewed by the yst. None of the listed corporations reviewedor any third party has providedor agreed to provide any compensationor other benefits inconnectionwiththis report to any of

47、the yst, the Company or the group company(ies). A group company(ies) of the Company confirm that they, whether individually or as a group (i) are not involvedin any market making activities for any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (ii) do not have any individual employed by or associated with

48、any group company(ies) of the Company serving as an officer of any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (iii) do not have any financial interest in relation to the listed corporation reviewed or (iv) do not, presently or within the last 12 months, have any investment banking relationship with the

49、listed corporation UndertakingsoftheI (We) am(are) conferredthe Professional Quality of Securities Investment ConsultingIndustry by the Securities Association of China andhave registered asthe Securities yst. I hereby issuethisreportindependently andobjectively withduediligence, professional andprud

50、entresearethods andonly legitimate information is used in this report. I am also responsible for the content and opinions of this report. I have never been, am not, and will not be compensated directly or indirectly in any form for the specificmendations or opinions herein.Disclosurewithrespecttothe

51、The company is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. The company is a qualified securities investment consulting institute approved by China Securities Regulatory Commission with the code number ZX0065.Releasing securities research reports is the basic form of the securities investment consul

52、ting services. The company may yze the values or market trends ofsecurities and related products orother relevant affecting factors,provide investment ysis advice on securities valuation/ investment rating, etc. by issuing securities research reports solely to its clients.The Company fulfills its du

53、ty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact complianfor the relevant disclosure materials or log intofor the ysts qualifications，the arrangement of the quiet period and the affiliates Introduction of Share Investment Rating Security Investment Rating：Whenmeasuring thedif

54、ferencebetweenthe markupofthe security and thatofthe marketsbenarkwithin six monthsafter thereleaseofthisreport, we define the terms as follows:TradingBUY:Sharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratemorethan20%upsideovera6-monthperiod. BUY: Share price performance is expected to generate more than 20%

55、upside over a 12-month period.Outperform:Sharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10-20%upsideovera12-monthHold:Sharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10%downsideto10%upsideovera12-monthperiod. Underperform: Share price performance is expected to generate between10-20% downside over

56、a 12-month period. SELL: Share price performance is expected to generate more than 20% downside over a 12-month period.Industry Investment When measuring the difference between the markup of the industry index and that of the markets benarkwithinsixmonthsafter thereleaseof the report, we define the

57、terms as follows:Overweight：Industry performs better than that of the whole Equalweight： Industryperformsaboutthesameasthatofthewholemarket；Underweight： Industry performs worse than that of the whole market.Wewould like to remindyou that different security research institutions adopt different ratin

58、gterminologies andrating standards. We adopt the relative rating method tomend the relative weightings of investment. The clients decisions to buy or sell securities shall be based on their actual situation, suchas their portfolio structures and other necessary factors. The clients shall read throug

59、h the whole report so as to obtain the complete opinions and information and shall not rely solely on the investment ratings to reach a conclusion. The Company employs its own industry classification system. The industry classification is available at our salesnel if you are interested.HSCEIistheben

60、 arkemployedinthisThis report is to be used solely by the clients of SWS Research Co., . ( subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, hereinafter referred to as asitsclientnotwithstandinghisreceiptofthisThisreport isbasedonpublicinformation, however, the authenticity, accuracyorcompleteness of suchi