數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)基本問(wèn)題及展望課件

1、數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)基本問(wèn)題、及展望Outline 0. 國(guó)內(nèi)現(xiàn)狀1. Basic Concepts of NWP（基本問(wèn)題）2. Brief History of NWP（發(fā)展歷程）3. Operation of NWP and The Future數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)的應(yīng)用日益廣泛：中、短期天氣預(yù)報(bào) 氣候數(shù)值模擬、氣候預(yù)測(cè)和氣候變化 中小尺度數(shù)值模擬天氣預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)間分類(lèi) 0-2小時(shí) 臨近預(yù)報(bào)2-12小時(shí) 甚短期預(yù)報(bào)12-48小時(shí) 短期預(yù)報(bào)3-10天 中期預(yù)報(bào)10天以上 長(zhǎng)期預(yù)報(bào)國(guó)家氣象中心數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)最近10多年的發(fā)展時(shí)間業(yè)務(wù)模式系統(tǒng)計(jì)算機(jī)1996.5區(qū)域臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)（MTTP）CRAY-C921998.x200

2、1.9核污染擴(kuò)散傳輸模式系統(tǒng)核污染擴(kuò)散傳輸模式系統(tǒng)(HYSPLIT4)CRAY-C92DEC-ALPHA1998.62000.82004.6北京地區(qū)中尺度模式系統(tǒng)華北地區(qū)中尺度模式系統(tǒng)（HB-MM5） NMC中尺度模式系統(tǒng)SP-2神威-11999.x2004.9森林火險(xiǎn)氣象條件預(yù)報(bào)(模型)森林火險(xiǎn)氣象等級(jí)預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)CRAY-C92IBM-SP2000.3中期集合預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng) T106L19/32成員神威-12001.6城市空氣質(zhì)量預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)(47個(gè)城市)神威-12004.3沙塵數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)DEC-ALPHA2004.6紫外線(xiàn)等級(jí)預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)IBM-SP2004.6全球臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)IBM-SP2005.

3、x海浪數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)IBM-SP主要數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)業(yè)務(wù)體系各系統(tǒng)的側(cè)重功能模式預(yù)報(bào)的主要側(cè)重點(diǎn)T639L60預(yù)報(bào)1-10天內(nèi)全球大尺度環(huán)流的演變、大范圍降水的發(fā)生發(fā)展等，如高空槽脊、副熱帶高壓，地面高、低氣壓和冷、暖鋒面，大范圍雨帶等GRAPES-Meso對(duì)中國(guó)區(qū)域的降水進(jìn)行短期（60小時(shí)以?xún)?nèi)）預(yù)報(bào)，如降水發(fā)生區(qū)域、降水強(qiáng)度、降水出現(xiàn)時(shí)段等 臺(tái)風(fēng)模式專(zhuān)門(mén)針對(duì)發(fā)生在西太平洋-我國(guó)沿海的臺(tái)風(fēng)，進(jìn)行其中心位置、移動(dòng)路徑的中短期（96小時(shí)內(nèi)）預(yù)報(bào) 中期T213集合預(yù)報(bào)對(duì)未來(lái)1-10天，特別是第5-10天期間、全球大尺度環(huán)流和大范圍降水發(fā)展演變的可能性（即概率）進(jìn)行預(yù)報(bào) 中尺度(基于WRF,27-9-3km

4、)預(yù)報(bào)京津及其它地區(qū)氣象要素短時(shí)間（48小時(shí)）的連續(xù)變化，如氣溫、風(fēng)、相對(duì)濕度、降水量等間隔3小時(shí)的預(yù)報(bào) 到目前為止我國(guó)的業(yè)務(wù)數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)模式系統(tǒng)仍然是以引進(jìn)國(guó)外為主！我國(guó)天氣預(yù)報(bào)所用的數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品仍然以國(guó)外的模式結(jié)果為主！我國(guó)自主發(fā)展的數(shù)值模式中較少有針對(duì)我國(guó)特殊氣象問(wèn)題的物理過(guò)程！我國(guó)數(shù)值模式的資料同化能力很低！GRAPES中國(guó)氣象局新一代數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)的英文名字為“GRAPES(GlobalRegional Assimilation and Prediction System)”全球區(qū)域同化預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng),簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)“GRAPES”系統(tǒng)。2000年以來(lái),在科技部“十五”國(guó)家重點(diǎn)科技攻關(guān)和“973”國(guó)家

5、重大基礎(chǔ)研究項(xiàng)目經(jīng)費(fèi)支持下,中國(guó)氣象局組織中國(guó)科學(xué)家自主研究開(kāi)發(fā)的多尺度通用數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)。三份重要文件1.中國(guó)氣象局氣象科技創(chuàng)新體系建設(shè)指導(dǎo)意見(jiàn)（2014-2020年）2014.10.302.中國(guó)氣象局國(guó)家氣象科技創(chuàng)新工程（20142020年）實(shí)施方案2014.10.303.教育部、中國(guó)氣象局關(guān)于加強(qiáng)氣象人才培養(yǎng)工作的指導(dǎo)意見(jiàn)2015.2.3中國(guó)氣象局：2014.10.30氣象科技創(chuàng)新體系建設(shè)指導(dǎo)意見(jiàn)（2014-2020年）國(guó)家氣象科技創(chuàng)新工程（20142020年）實(shí)施方案明確的三個(gè)任務(wù)：1.高分辨率資料同化與數(shù)值天氣模式2.氣象資料質(zhì)量控制及多源數(shù)據(jù)融合與再分析3.次季節(jié)至季節(jié)氣候預(yù)測(cè)和

6、氣候系統(tǒng)模式 一、優(yōu)化氣象相關(guān)專(zhuān)業(yè)和人才結(jié)構(gòu)。辦好大氣科學(xué)、應(yīng)用氣象學(xué)、大氣物理與大氣環(huán)境等學(xué)科專(zhuān)業(yè)，加強(qiáng)數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)、大氣探測(cè)、公共氣象服務(wù)、氣象防災(zāi)減災(zāi)等方向的人才培養(yǎng)。 支持行業(yè)特色高校統(tǒng)籌招生計(jì)劃增量與存量，適度擴(kuò)大大氣科學(xué)類(lèi)專(zhuān)業(yè)本科生和研究生招生規(guī)模。教育部、中國(guó)氣象局關(guān)于加強(qiáng)氣象人才培養(yǎng)工作的指導(dǎo)意見(jiàn)2015.2.3一個(gè)重要事件2015.4.20：教育部、中國(guó)氣象局成立“中國(guó)氣象人才培養(yǎng)聯(lián)盟”氣象領(lǐng)域高等院校（氣象類(lèi)學(xué)院）、科研院所、企業(yè)以及國(guó)家級(jí)氣象業(yè)務(wù)單位、省（自治區(qū)、直轄市）氣象局均可申請(qǐng)加入聯(lián)盟。宇如聰：解讀（2015.4.23）氣象教育歷久彌新學(xué)科建設(shè)與人才培養(yǎng)面臨挑戰(zhàn)：

7、 天氣預(yù)報(bào)、數(shù)值模擬、大氣化學(xué)、地球觀測(cè)、人工影響天氣等方面仍有不足 1.1 Basic Concepts of NWP(1) What is Numerical Weather Prediction?(2) What are the main components of NWP?1.1 Basic Concepts of NWP(1) What is Numerical Weather Prediction?Numerical forecasts are generated by running computer models of the atmosphere that can simul

8、ate the evolution of the atmosphere over the next few hours or few days.NWP is an initial-value problem(初值問(wèn)題). The initial conditions are provided by analysis of weather observations and data assimilation.The skill of NWP forecasts depends on accuracy of the model and the initial conditions.(2) What

9、 are the main components of NWP?(2a) Model Equations -Dynamics Small-scale physical processes cannot be represented explicitly in computer models. They must be represented by bulk formulae. This is called parameterization of the sub-grid scale physics（次網(wǎng)格參數(shù)化）.(2b) Model Physics Parameterization（物理參數(shù)

10、化）Condensation phenomena（冷凝現(xiàn)象）Solar radiation（太陽(yáng)輻射）Long-wave radiation（長(zhǎng)波輻射）Orographic effects（地形效應(yīng)）Land-atmosphere interactions（陸-氣相互作用）Ocean-atmosphere interactions（海-氣相互作用）Turbulent transfer of momentum and heat（湍流輸運(yùn)）.(2b) Model Physics Parameterization（物理參數(shù)化）(2c) Model Discretion(2d) Model initi

11、al Value and Data AssimilationNWP is an initial-value problem.The model integrates the equations forward in time, starting from the initial conditions（從初始場(chǎng)開(kāi)始，沿時(shí)間方向積分）.In the early NWP experiments, hand interpolations of the observations to grid points were performed（手工插值-主觀分析）.The need for an automa

12、tic “objective analysis” quickly became apparent.（客觀分析）Accurate methods of Data Assimilation（資料同化方法）(2d) Model initial Value and Data Assimilation In 1904, the Norwegian hydrodynamist V. Bjerknes suggested that: The weather could be quantitatively predicted by applying the complete set of hydrodynam

13、ic and thermodynamic equations to carefully analyzed initial atmospheric states. 1.2 Brief History of NWPan overview of the milestones in numerical forecastingVilhelm Bjerknes威廉 皮葉克尼斯Born: 14 March 1862 in Christiania (now Oslo), NorwayDied: 9 April 1951 in Oslo, Norway 挪威學(xué)派的創(chuàng)始人 挪威氣象學(xué)家、物理學(xué)家、近代天氣學(xué)和大氣

14、動(dòng)力學(xué)主要?jiǎng)?chuàng)始人之一，氣象學(xué)挪威學(xué)派的創(chuàng)始人。Vilhelm Bjerknes 1897年提出著名的環(huán)流理論（環(huán)流定理），這是將物理學(xué)引入大氣運(yùn)動(dòng)研究的開(kāi)端。 1904年用力學(xué)和物理學(xué)的觀點(diǎn)，制訂了研究天氣預(yù)報(bào)問(wèn)題的計(jì)劃。19131917年提出氣旋的極鋒學(xué)說(shuō)，創(chuàng)立了氣旋的現(xiàn)代模式，形成了氣象學(xué)的挪威（卑爾根）學(xué)派。（本世紀(jì)初到30年代的國(guó)際氣象學(xué)界的主流學(xué)派，40-50年代芝加哥學(xué)派形成。）1921年根據(jù)理論和觀測(cè)事實(shí)，提出了著名的大氣環(huán)流圖案。L.F. Richardson (1922) Weather Prediction by Numerical Process, Cambridge U

15、niversity Press The major reasons for the failure of Richardsons forecast:觀測(cè)站網(wǎng)的密度和資料的精確度不夠；用的是完全的原始方程組；所取的時(shí)間和空間的間隔不合適，使計(jì)算出現(xiàn)不穩(wěn)定The first electronic computer: ENIAC1945/46 - Studies of digital computers for the purpose of weather prediction were initiated by John Von Neumann. In 1948 a young meteorolo

16、gical theoretician, Jule Charney, succeeded to derive simplified mathematical models of the atmospheric motions, based on the quasi-geostrophic approximations. Meteorology Project, Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton Jule Charney, Norman Phillips, Glenn Lewis, N. Gilbarg, George Platzman.J. Smag

17、orinsky 1950 Von Neumann, Charney, and Fjortoft led scientists in producing a retrospective 24hr forecast, using the ENIAC The first numerical predictions in real time were prepared by C.G Rossbys team at the International Meteorological Institute in Sweden. （1954）Carl-Gustav ROSSBY (1898-1957) 芝加哥學(xué)

18、派40年代，Rossby確認(rèn)了高空西風(fēng)急流和長(zhǎng)波的結(jié)構(gòu)和變化，以及它們與地面氣旋波的關(guān)系。芝加哥學(xué)派的工作：一方面增強(qiáng)了天氣學(xué)與熱力學(xué)和動(dòng)力學(xué)的聯(lián)系，充實(shí)了天氣分析和預(yù)報(bào)的物理基礎(chǔ)；另一方面也為研究大型的大氣運(yùn)動(dòng)提供了理論依據(jù)，為數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)的開(kāi)展創(chuàng)造了條件。 芝加哥學(xué)派的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人RossbyMajor NWP research takes place in large national and internationaloperational weather centers and in universities.1.3 Operation of NWP and The FutureMajor

19、 NWP research takes place in large national and international operational weather centers and in universities. European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Center for At

20、mospheric Research (NCAR) National Meteorological Services (NMSs): UK, France, Germany, and other European countries Canada, Japan, Australia, China and others.數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)中心 WRF 模式 (國(guó)家大氣研究中心/濱州大學(xué)（PSU/NCAR）), RAMS (科羅拉多州立大學(xué)（CSU）的區(qū)域大氣模擬系統(tǒng)), ARPS (俄克拉何馬大學(xué)（OU）的先進(jìn)區(qū)域預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)), MASS (北卡州立大學(xué)的中尺度大氣模擬系統(tǒng))；RWM模式(空軍全球天氣中

21、心（AFGWC）的重置窗口模式), NORAPS6 (海軍業(yè)務(wù)區(qū)域預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)), RSM 模式(NCEP的區(qū)域譜模式), COAMPS (海軍艦隊(duì)數(shù)值氣象和海洋中心（FNMOC）的耦合海洋/大氣中尺度預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng))；Eta (early Eta, Meso-Eta, Eta-10) 模式(國(guó)家環(huán)境預(yù)報(bào)中心（NCEP）),主要數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)模式美國(guó)ECMWF Supercomputers（1）The improvements in skill of NWP over the last 50 years is due to four factors: Increased power of supercompu

22、ters（超級(jí)計(jì)算機(jī)）, allowing much finer numerical resolution and fewer model approximations; Improved representation of small-scale physical processes (次網(wǎng)格物理過(guò)程clouds, precipitation, turbulent transfers of heat,moisture, momentum,and radiation) within the models; Increased availability of data, especially s

23、atellite and aircraft data over the oceans and the Southern Hemisphere（觀測(cè)資料）. More accurate methods of data assimilation（資料同化方法）, which result in improved initial conditions for the models;（2）The FutureDetailed short-range forecasts, using storm-scale models（風(fēng)暴尺度） able to provide skilful predictions

24、 of severe weather（極端天氣預(yù)報(bào)能力）;More sophisticated methods of data assimilation, capable of extracting the maximum possible information from observing systems, specially remote sensors such as satellites and radars;（高級(jí)資料同化方法）Development of adaptive observing systems, in which additional observations ar

25、e placed where ensembles indicate that there is rapid error growth (low predictability);（自適應(yīng)觀測(cè)系統(tǒng)）Improvement in the usefulness of medium-range forecasts（中期預(yù)報(bào)）, especially through the use of ensemble forecasting;（集合預(yù)報(bào)）Fully coupled atmospherichydrological systems（氣象-水文耦合）, where the atmospheric model precipitation is down-scaled（降尺度） and used to extend the length of river flow prediction;More use of d