-2024年全球娛樂及媒體行業(yè)展望：中國摘要

1、ContentsIntroduction: Pulling the future forward 02Shifting patterns of consumer behaviour 06Securing growth in defensive times 09Deals and M&A transactions: Targeting scale and growth 12Technology and infrastructure pave the way for growth 14Regulation and trust: Global polarisation looms 17Conclus

2、ion: The future on fast-forward 19 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Methodology and definitions 20 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Use and permissions 21Global Entertainment & Media Outlook territory contacts 22 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Contributors 241Introduction:Pulling the future forwardIn 2020, the entertainment

3、 and media industry absorbed the historic shock of COVID-19, which toppled long-standing business models, amplified existing trends and forged new opportunities. As the global economy shrinks for the first time since 2009, the US$2.1tn industry is forecast to contract in 2020 by 5.6%.On a macroecono

4、mic level, analysts have been debating which letter most accurately describes the shape ofthe recovery: a V-shaped rapid bounce-back, a slower U-shaped recovery or an L-shaped trajectory. But aK-shaped bifurcated recovery, in which some sectors rise while others fall, might be the most appropriate a

5、lphabetic reference for the economy as a whole and forentertainment and media (E&M) in particular. As the overall industry posts a 2.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2024, some E&M segments will expand quicklyexperiencing three years of anticipated growth in a single yearwhile others co

6、ntinue their downwards path.To a large degree, COVID-19 and its aftereffects have pulled the future forward, as consumers take more control of their own media consumption in a world of ever-expanding choice.Consumer habits can take a lifetime to learnbut just a lockdown to loseIn only a few short mo

7、nths, COVID-19 accelerated ongoing changes in consumers behaviour, pulling forward a series of digital disruptions that would have occurred in future years. Agile consumers, responding with alacrity to new conditions, are increasingly constructing their own bundles and media environments, paying dir

8、ectly for all-you-can- eat access to music, video and games. By a combination of design and circumstance, people are consuming more content and experiences at home and online. ProvidersPowering aheadGlobal E&M revenues recover from a 2020 decline and resume their historic growth trend.20192024CAGR2.

9、8%Projected data$2.1$2.2$2.3$2.4$2.5.0$2$1.7trillion$1.8$1.9$2.0Global E&M revenues (US$tn)38%Growth rate (%)4%20%1-4%02015201620172018201920202021202220232024-8%Global E&M revenuesAnnual global E&M growthGlobal GDP growthNote: 2019 is the latest available data. 20202024 values are forecasts.Source:

10、 PwC Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 20202024 ( HYPERLINK /outlook) /outlook), Omdia, World Bank, IMFSurging demand for on-demandSubscription video on demand revenues double box office revenues by 2024.Projected data80Global revenues (US$bn)60402002015201620172018201920202021202220232024Subscri

11、ption video on demand revenuesBox office revenuesNote: 2019 is the latest available data. 20202024 values are forecasts.Source: PwC Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 2020-2024 ( HYPERLINK /outlook) /outlook), Omdiathat were already well positioned to meet customers where they are, such as over-th

12、e-top (OTT) video companies and multiplayer game providers, have thrived. Others facing strategic headwinds adjusted quickly. News Corp Australia accelerated its digitisation plans in May 2020; it abruptly stopped the printing of 112 community and regionalnewspapers, turning 76 into digital-only mas

13、theads and shuttering the other 36 altogether.Hastening the arrival of industry tipping pointsThe acceleration of change has forged several compelling industry tipping points, as the lines on graphs cross and diverge, forming their own K shapes. As recently as 2015,Historically, E&M spending by cons

14、umers has been discretionary and tied tightly to macroeconomic conditions. A negative economic shock has tended to push spending to drop off faster than economic activity. But increasingly, many people regard their digital E&M spendinga Netflix subscription or mobile data allowanceas a utility on a

15、par with water or electricity and therefore a non-discretionary expense. In 2009, consumer spending on E&M (including internet access) rose 1.5% even as the global economy contracted by HYPERLINK /indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG 1.7%. Overall consumer spending (including internet access) in 2020 was pro

16、jected to fall just 2.3%, compared with the 4.9% contraction in the global economy at large, as projected by the International Monetary Fund in June.box office revenues were three times those of the SVOD (subscription video on demand) sector. Having caught up with the box office sector in 2019, SVOD

17、 is now projected to surge away in the coming five years, reaching twice the size of the box office in 2024. In 2019, for the first time, more data was consumed on smartphones than through fixed broadband; by 2024, the amount of mobile data consumed will be 50% greater than the amount of broadband d

18、ata.Shifting mixAdvertising spending is projected to be more volatile than consumer spending.Projected data20192024CAGRGlobal E&M consumer revenues2.2%20192024CAGRGlobal E&M advertising revenues1.8%10%5%Growth rate (%)0-5%-10%-15%201620172018201920202021202220232024Global E&M consumer revenue growth

19、Global E&M advertising revenue growthNote: 2019 is the latest available data. 20202024 values are forecasts.Source: PwC Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 20202024 ( HYPERLINK /outlook) /outlook), OmdiaMashups present opportunities for new business modelsAs they strive to meet consumers where they

20、 are predominantly at home and onlinebusinesses are creating new arrangements and combinations aimed at opening up new revenue opportunities. Digital platforms have morphed into performance spaces, as when Londons Wireless Festival streamed recorded virtual reality (VR) music performances to a homeb

21、ound global audience in mid-2020. Gaming is integrating e-commerce into its experience to an ever greater extent, capitalising on the closure of many physical retail spaces. In India, empty stadiums for Indian Premier League cricket matches have spurred the development of digital visual effects to g

22、ive TV viewers an immersive experience.Consumer spending trumps advertisingperhaps for goodHistorically, advertising spending has risen and fallen in tandem with consumption. Not this year. Global E&Mrevenues will fall 5.6% in 2020, compared with a dramatic 13.4% decline for global advertising. Even

23、 internet advertising is set to fall slightly as recessionary conditions impact advertiser confidence. And although both streams will recover, advertising is slated to grow more slowly than consumer spending over the 20202024 period. Several structural and pandemic-related dynamics are at play.Busin

24、esses are reducing their spending on advertising and marketing. But it is likely that the mass personalisation of content experiences at relatively low cost and the resulting explosive growth in choice have altered the balance, perhaps permanently, between consumer spending and advertising. Companie

25、s find they can deliver immense choice at a price point that makes sense for both supplier and customer, while building powerful direct relationshipsall without relying excessively on fickle or intrusive ads. E&M companies are increasingly in the business of delivering experiences and content direct

26、ly to consumers, not delivering audiences and eyeballs to advertisers.Reconfiguration, powered by the forces of ADAPT, is under wayThe combined impact of these shifts is a sweeping reconfiguration of the vast E&M system. Todays world is facing five urgent global issuesa set of forces that weve group

27、ed into a framework called HYPERLINK /gx/en/issues/adapt.html ADAPT (see sidebar, at right). Around the world, governments, organisations and societies are struggling with the near-term manifestations of these trends and urgently seeking effective ways to address them. In the wake of the pandemic, t

28、he ADAPT issues will continue to shape sectors across E&M and beyond, driving a reconfiguration that will involve much more than digitisation.The unprecedented decline of 2020 will likely be followed by an impressive bounce-back in 2021 and beyond. Between 2019 and 2024, the E&M industry will grow a

29、t a 2.8% CAGR, roughly equivalent to the long-term trend. At the macro level, in other words, growth will regress to its mean. On a micro level, dramatic peaks and valleys will be evident. As consumers and businesses adapt in parallel, the industryis being reshaped before our eyes. Although there wi

30、ll still be challenges for E&M companies as we move beyond the pandemic, the digital migration that it has pulled forward will also generate opportunities in all segments.The ADAPT forcesAsymmetryIncreasing wealth disparity and the erosion of the middle classDisruptionThe pervasive nature of technol

31、ogy and its impact on individuals, society and Earths climateAgeDemographic pressure on business, social institutions and economiesPolarisationBreakdown in global consensus and a fracturing world, with growing nationalism and populismTrust/RegulationDeclining confidence in the institutions that unde

32、rpin society2Shifting patterns of consumer behaviourThe pandemic has propelled consumers even faster towards digital behaviours in many areas of their lives, as lockdowns and social distancing have acted as a powerful spur to employ digital tools. People are using virtual collaboration tools such as

33、 Houseparty and Zoom to stay in touch with family and friends, consulting with physicians over video links, and making more use of mobile banking and contactless payment apps. Nowhere has this change been more evident than in media consumption.COVID-19 has rendered some popular activities off-limits

34、. By April 2020, more than 750 festivals globally had been cancelled or postponed, including stalwarts such as the Glastonbury Festival in the UK and Coachella in the US. Not surprisingly, eventslive music, cinema and trade showssuffered the most dramatic revenue declines in their history in 2020, f

35、alling 63.8%, and arent expected to regain their pre-pandemic levels until at least 2024.But the more interesting and impactful changes are seen in those activities that people were able to do beforethe pandemic but have now embraced with new ardour. Companies that were already well situated to capi

36、talise on the move towards home-based entertainment and activity received a major boost. In effect, people cocooned in their residences set about constructing their own bundles of content by purchasing or subscribing to all-you-can- eat packages of video, music, content, exercise and experiences. On

37、line fitness company Peloton Interactive, which provides hardware, software and exercisecontent, reported a massive HYPERLINK /article/us-peloton-results/peloton-gets-lockdown-boost-as-home-workouts-drive-exercise-bike-sales-idUKKBN22I338 surge in sales of its fitness equipment and subscriptions. Su

38、bscribers more thanThe show must go onHit hard by COVID-19, live events struggle to regain their footing.Projected data120Global revenues (US$bn)100806040200201920202021202220232024Live music revenuesTrade shows revenuesCinema revenuesNote: 2019 is the latest available data. 20202024 values are fore

39、casts.Source: PwC Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 20202024 ( HYPERLINK /outlook) /outlook), OmdiaPockets of growthMost of the worlds best-performing E&M consumer markets are in developing countries.5.4%5.4%8.6%5.8%8.8%10%CAGR 201920248%6%4%2%0%IndiaNigeriaPhilippinesSaudi ArabiaPakistanSource:

40、PwC Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 20202024 ( HYPERLINK /outlook) /outlook), OmdiaMuted demandE&M consumer spending is expected to be weakest in wealthy markets.-0.4%-0.4%-0.6%0.5%0.6%0.8%CAGR 201920240.4%0.0%-0.4%-0.8%DenmarkIsraelNorwaySwitzerlandFinlandSource: PwC Global Entertainment & Med

41、ia Outlook 20202024 ( HYPERLINK /outlook) /outlook), Omdiadoubled between August 2019 and August 2020, to HYPERLINK /static-files/0160c736-f0d2-400a-8a20-6f6fc3f85659 nearly HYPERLINK /static-files/0160c736-f0d2-400a-8a20-6f6fc3f85659 1.1mn, and the number of workouts initiated more than quadrupled.

42、 The launch of the Disney+ streaming service in late 2019 could hardly have been better timed. Having projected between 60mn and 90mn paying subscribers by 2024, Disney+ reached 60.5mn in early August 2020, helped by a surge in subscriptions triggered by a filmed performance of the Broadway smash hi

43、t Hamilton.Similar dynamics are playing out in markets worldwide. In Indonesia, remote working and home entertainment have propelled a strong increase in the take-up of subscription video services such as Netflix, Iflix and Viu, with local- language Bahasa content spurring growth. Netflix offers a g

44、rowing amount of Bahasa content, which may haveinfluenced the decision by state-owned Telkom in July 2020 to HYPERLINK https:/coconuts.co/jakarta/news/netflix-unblocked-on-telkomsel-indihome-for-real-this-time/ start including Netflix in its home internet serviceIndihome and mobile internet service

45、Telkomsel. In Australia, local OTT player Stan, launched in 2015, surpassed 2.2mn subscriptions, offering a mix of content from local sources and such global providers as NBCUniversal.Emerging markets compensate for slower developed-market growthThe K-shaped recovery is evident when we examine perfo

46、rmance by country. Overall, global consumer revenues (excluding internet access) are forecast to rise at a 2.2% CAGR, as customers are able to choose from highly competitive bundles of reasonably priced content. But emerging markets will continue to have the highestVirtual progressAn increasing shar

47、e of advertising spending is devoted to digital.Projected data500Global revenues (US$bn)40030020010002015201620172018201920202021202220232024Global E&M digital advertising revenuesGlobal E&M non-digital advertising revenuesNote: 2019 is the latest available data. 20202024 values are forecasts.Source

48、: PwC Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 20202024 ( HYPERLINK /outlook) /outlook), Omdiapercentage growth rates, albeit from smaller bases. In overall spending through 2024, Egypt leads the way with growth at 17.3% compounded annually; Nigeria, India and Pakistan also boast double-digit CAGRs. Loo

49、king solely at consumer revenues, India, the fifth-largest economy in the world, is in clear first place with an 8.8% CAGR, helped by the fact that print revenues are still rising in many regions of the country. By contrast, in Western Europe and North America, which between them account for about h

50、alf of global GDP, consumer growth above a 2% CAGR through to 2024 is rare; in Denmark, consumer revenues are actually expected to fall slightly.Advertising spending remains sluggishCleavages can also be seen in advertisingat several levels. Although advertising typically tracks consumer spending ac

51、tivity, as noted, it is likely to be a laggard in this recovery; the global total will not regain its 2019 peak until 2022. Advertising in emerging markets will thrive while developed markets will struggle. Belgium, for example, will see advertising revenues decline between 2019 and 2024 while Indon

52、esia will see a 7.4% advertising CAGR through 2024. Growth will be sluggish in established markets in part because of their historic reliance on print, television and radio advertising. As shown in the chart, above, in 2019, digital advertising revenues first caught up with non- digital advertising

53、revenues. With the lines having crossed, digital advertising is expected to grow at a 4.8% CAGR through 2024 while non-digital advertising flatlines.3Securing growth in defensive timesThe K-shaped recovery means market players cant sit still or expect to reap the same results by taking the same appr

54、oaches. As a result, innovative E&M companies are identifying and adopting new ways to seek out growth and adapt to consumers evolving preferences.In the 2019 strategy+business article “ HYPERLINK /feature/Making-connections-with-the-new-digital-consumer?gko=ccc89 Making connections HYPERLINK /featu

55、re/Making-connections-with-the-new-digital-consumer?gko=ccc89 with the new digital consumer,” we documented how digital spacese-commerce platforms, gaming channels, podcastsare evolving into powerful new platforms for marketing. As the future is pulled forward, and physical gatherings remain difficu

56、lt, theyve become the new platforms for performance and the sale of content or goods. In China, for example, rising usage of e-commerce via live streaming has emerged as a trend in the lockdown period. Tencent-backed Kuaishou blends social influencing and e-commerce, with celebrities appearing in vi

57、deosin which users can click through to buy featured goods. Kuaishou users can also sell goods to other users, and demonstrate products via a channel called Kuaishou Small Store.Because cinemas are closed, big new films have bypassed theatrical release windows and pushed content straightto OTT platf

58、orms. In July, Trolls World Tourproduced by DreamWorks Animation and distributed by Universal Pictureswas made available in theatres and for digitalrental (for US$20) on the same day. In China, many content owners have renegotiated their arrangements with cinemas to switch their movies to OTT stream

59、ing platforms. (A breakthrough came in late August 2020 with the cinema- only release of the widely anticipated film The Eight Hundred, which attracted huge audiences back to cinemas over its first weekend, pulling in US$112mn. By September, the global box office gross rose to U$441mn.)New content f

60、ormats are also emerging from the maelstrom of the pandemic. The jury is still out on the success of Quibi, a much-heralded and richly capitalised (US$1.7bn in funding) mobile-based SVOD service that launched in April 2020 and offers short-form episodes, or “quick bites,” released daily or weekly. T