宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量課件

1、主要的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量Major Macroeconomic Variable 產(chǎn)出、失業(yè)和通貨膨脹，這些詞語每天都出現(xiàn)在報(bào)紙和晚間新聞里。The words output, unemployment, and inflation appears daily in newspapers and on the evening news. 總產(chǎn)出Aggregate Output 在十九世紀(jì)早期，以及在大蕭條期間，研究經(jīng)濟(jì)活動的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們根本沒有可靠的整體經(jīng)濟(jì)活動的衡量方法。 Economists studying economic activity in the nineteenth century

2、or during the Great Depression had no measure of aggregate (total) activity on which to rely. 直到二戰(zhàn)結(jié)束后，在主要國家里，才匯總出了國民收入與產(chǎn)品帳戶（簡稱國民收入帳戶）。 It was not until the end of World War II that national income and product accounts (or national income accounts, for short) were put together in major countries. 總產(chǎn)出

3、Aggregate Output與其他帳戶體系一樣，國民收入帳戶定義一些概念，然后構(gòu)造對應(yīng)于這些概念的衡量指標(biāo)。 Like any accounting system, the national income accounts define concepts, and then construct measures corresponding to these concepts. 沒有這一帳戶，數(shù)字的相加就成為問題。 Without them, numbers that should add up do not. GDP、增加值和收入GDP, Value Added, and Income 在

4、國民收入帳戶中，總產(chǎn)出的衡量指標(biāo)是國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值，簡稱GDP。 The measure of aggregate output in the national income accounts is gross domestic product, or GDP, for short. GDP、增加值和收入GDP, Value Added, and Income考慮一個經(jīng)濟(jì)中的GDP 有三種方法： There are three ways of thinking about an economys GDP: GDP是一定時(shí)期內(nèi)、一個經(jīng)濟(jì)中所生產(chǎn)的最終產(chǎn)品與服務(wù)GDP的價(jià)值。 GDP is the v

5、alue of the final goods and services produced in the economy during a given period. GDP是一定時(shí)期內(nèi)、一個經(jīng)濟(jì)中增加值之和。 GDP is the sum of value added in the economy during a given period.GDP是一定時(shí)期內(nèi)、一個經(jīng)濟(jì)中收入之和。GDP is the sum of incomes in the economy during a given period. GDP：最終產(chǎn)品法GDP: Final Goods Approach 關(guān)鍵詞是最終。

6、The important word is final. 例子：假設(shè)一個經(jīng)濟(jì)僅有兩個企業(yè)組成 An example: Suppose that the economy is composed of just two firms GDP：最終產(chǎn)品法GDP: Final Goods Approach GDP：最終產(chǎn)品法GDP: Final Goods Approach 因?yàn)殇撌侵虚g產(chǎn)品用來生產(chǎn)最終產(chǎn)品（汽車） 的產(chǎn)品，因而不應(yīng)該被記入GDP 最終產(chǎn)品。Because steel is an intermediate good, a good used in the production of th

7、e final good, cars, and thus should not be counted in GDP the value of final output. 另一個考慮的方法是設(shè)想兩個企業(yè)合并后會發(fā)生什么。Another way to think of this is to imagine what happens when the two firms merge. GDP：增加值法GDP: Value Added Approach 一個企業(yè)在生產(chǎn)過程中產(chǎn)生的增加值，被定義成它產(chǎn)出的價(jià)值減去在它生產(chǎn)中使用的中間物品的價(jià)值。 The value added by a firm in

8、the production process is defined as the value of its production minus the value of the intermediate goods it uses in production. GDP：增加值法GDP: Value Added Approach在兩企業(yè)的例子中 In the two-firm example: 鋼廠Steel 沒有中間物品 No intermediate goods 增加值Value added = $100 汽車Cars 中間物品（鋼）Intermediate goods (steel) =$1

9、00 增加值Value added = $210 -$100 = $110 GDP：最終產(chǎn)品法與增加值法GDP: Final Good vs. Value Added Approach 這兩種定義隱含地說明了，最終物品與服務(wù)的價(jià)值（方法1）也可以被看成是這些最終物品生產(chǎn)鏈上的所有企業(yè)的增加值之和（方法2）。 The two definitions imply that the value of final goods and services (the first approach) can also be thought of as the sum of the value added by

10、 all firms along the chain of production of those final goods (the second approach). GDP：收入法GDP: Income Approach 到目前為止，我們都是從產(chǎn)出方來看GDP We have looked so far at GDP from the production side. 看待GDP的第三種方法是從收入方來看。 A third way of looking at GDP is from the income side. GDP：收入法GDP: Income Approach考慮一個企業(yè)支付中間

11、產(chǎn)品后剩下的收益： Think about the revenue left to a firm after it has paid for intermediate goods. 一些收益以對銷售征稅的方式被政府獲得，這樣的稅被稱作間接稅。 Some of the revenues are collected by the government in the form of taxes on sales such taxes are called indirect taxes. 一些收益付給工人這一部分被稱作勞動收入。 Some of the revenues go to pay worke

12、rs this component is called labor income. 余下的進(jìn)入企業(yè)這一部分被稱作資本收入。 The rest goes to the firm that component is called capital income. GDP：收入法GDP: Income Approach從收入方看企業(yè)，增加值就是間接稅、勞動收入和資本收入之和。 Looking at the firm from the income side, value added is the sum of indirect taxes, labor income, and capital inco

13、me. GDP：收入法GDP: Income Approach美國按收入分類的GDP 構(gòu)成（1960 和1998 年）The Composition of GDP by Type of Income, 1960 and 1998 名義和實(shí)際GDP Nominal and Real GDP 名義GDP 是生產(chǎn)的最終產(chǎn)品的數(shù)量乘以它們的當(dāng)期價(jià)格再求和。 Nominal GDP is the sum of the quantities of final goods produced times their current price. 名義GDP 隨時(shí)間上升的原因有兩種： Nominal GDP i

14、ncreases over time for two reasons大多數(shù)產(chǎn)品的產(chǎn)量隨時(shí)間上升。The production of most goods increases over time.大多數(shù)產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格也隨時(shí)間上升。The prices of most goods also increases over time. 如果我們想衡量的是產(chǎn)量及其變動，我們就需要消除價(jià)格上升的影響。 If our intention is to measure production and its change over time, we need to eliminate the effect of in

15、creasing prices. 因此我們將實(shí)際GDP 構(gòu)造成最終產(chǎn)品數(shù)量乘以不變（而非當(dāng)期）價(jià)格再求和。 Thats why real GDP is constructed as the sum of the quantities of final goods times constant (rather than current) prices. 名義和實(shí)際GDP Nominal and Real GDP名義和實(shí)際GDP：單一產(chǎn)品經(jīng)濟(jì)Nominal and Real GDP: One Good Economy 名義和實(shí)際GDP：單一產(chǎn)品經(jīng)濟(jì)Nominal and Real GDP: One

16、 Good Economy如何定義實(shí)際GDP？ How should we define real GDP? 可以定義成汽車的數(shù)量。 We can define it as the number of cars. 或者用一個共同的價(jià)格來乘汽車的數(shù)量，例如，用1992 年汽車價(jià)格。 Or we can define it by multiplying the number of cars in each year by a common price, say, the price of a car in 1992. 這一方法實(shí)際上給出了以1992年美元衡量的實(shí)際GDP。 The approach

17、 gives us in effect real GDP in 1992 dollars. 名義和實(shí)際GDP：單一產(chǎn)品經(jīng)濟(jì)Nominal and Real GDP: One Good Economy名義和實(shí)際GDP：單一產(chǎn)品經(jīng)濟(jì)Nominal and Real GDP: One Good Economy如果我們用1993 年價(jià)格來衡量實(shí)際GDP ，結(jié)果會怎樣？ What if we decided to measure real GDP in 1993 prices? 實(shí)際GDP 的水平值會不同，但其逐年的增長率不變。 The level of real GDP would be differ

18、ent, but its increase from year to year would be the same as above. 名義和實(shí)際GDP：多產(chǎn)品經(jīng)濟(jì)Nominal and Real GDP: Multi-Good Economy 當(dāng)最終產(chǎn)品數(shù)量不只一種時(shí)，實(shí)際GDP 必須定義成所有最終產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)出的加權(quán)平均。這就導(dǎo)致一個問題：權(quán)重應(yīng)該時(shí)多少？ When there is more than one final good, real GDP must be defined as a weighted average of the output of all final goods,

19、which brings the question of what the weights should be. 物品的相對價(jià)格看起來是理所應(yīng)當(dāng)?shù)臋?quán)重。 Relative prices of the goods would appear to be the natural weights 名義和實(shí)際GDP：多產(chǎn)品經(jīng)濟(jì)Nominal and Real GDP: Multi-Good Economy不過，如果相對價(jià)格隨時(shí)間改變（這種情況經(jīng)常發(fā)生），又該怎么辦？ What if, as often the case, relative prices change over time? 固定一年（基年

20、）的相對價(jià)格作為權(quán)重 Choose the relative prices in a given year (base year) as weights 權(quán)重隨時(shí)間改變 Change the weights over time 在美國國民收入帳戶中，實(shí)際GDP的衡量指標(biāo)被稱作以環(huán)比（1992）美元衡量的實(shí)際GDP，為后者的一種形式。 The measure of real GDP in the U.S. national income accounts is called real GDP in chained (1992) dollars, a form of the latter. 名義和

21、實(shí)際的同義詞Synonyms of Nominal and Real GDP 名義GDP (表示為$Yt) Nominal GDP 美元 GDP dollar GDP以現(xiàn)價(jià)衡量的GDP GDP in current dollars 實(shí)際GDP(表示為Yt) Real GDP 以實(shí)物衡量的GDP GDP in terms of goods以不變價(jià)衡量的GDP GDP in constant dollars通貨膨脹調(diào)整的GDP GDP adjusted for inflation GDP增長GDP Growth GDP在第t年的增長率是指實(shí)際GDP 在第t年的變化率。GDP growth in y

22、ear t will refer to the rate of change of real GDP in year t GDP增長GDP GrowthGDP正增長的時(shí)期被成為擴(kuò)張期。 Periods of positive GDP growth are called expansion. GDP負(fù)增長的時(shí)期被稱作衰退期。 Periods of negative GDP growth are called recession. 只在經(jīng)濟(jì)至少持續(xù)兩個季度負(fù)增長時(shí)才用這個詞。 Macroeconomists usually use the word only if the economy goes

23、 through at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth. 實(shí)際GDP，技術(shù)進(jìn)步與計(jì)算機(jī)價(jià)格Real GDP, Technological Progress, and the Price of Computers 計(jì)算實(shí)際GDP的一個棘手問題是如何對待已有物品的質(zhì)量變化。尤其是計(jì)算機(jī)。 A tough problem in computing real GDP is dealing with changes in quality in existing goods. One of the most difficult cases

24、 is computers. 我們能夠假設(shè)1999 年的一臺個人計(jì)算機(jī)和1987年的計(jì)算機(jī)是同樣的產(chǎn)品嗎？ Should we assume that a personal computer in 1999 is the same good as a computer produced in 1987? 實(shí)際GDP，技術(shù)進(jìn)步與計(jì)算機(jī)價(jià)格Real GDP, Technological Progress, and the Price of Computers經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家用來調(diào)整這些質(zhì)量改進(jìn)的辦法，是觀察在給定年 份中，市場如何對具有不同特征的計(jì)算機(jī)做出評價(jià)。 The approach used by

25、economists to adjust for these improvements is to look at how the market values computers with different characteristics in a given year. 這一方法將物品看成提供了一系列特征（這里是速度、存儲等）的組合，每一特征有一個隱含的價(jià)格，因此被稱為享受定價(jià)。 This approach, which treats goods as providing a collection of characteristics (here speed, memory, and so

26、 on) each with an implicit price, is called hedonic pricing. 實(shí)際GDP，技術(shù)進(jìn)步與計(jì)算機(jī)價(jià)格Real GDP, Technological Progress, and the Price of Computers使用這一方法，（美國）商務(wù)部估計(jì)，自1987年以來，新計(jì)算機(jī)的質(zhì)量每年平均上升15。 Using this approach, the Department of Commerce estimates that the quality of new computers has increased on average 15%

27、 a year since 1987. 雖然計(jì)算機(jī)的貨幣價(jià)格在同一時(shí)期每年下降10，其經(jīng)質(zhì)量調(diào)整的價(jià)格每年下降15%+10%=25% 。 Although the dollar price of computers has declined by about 10% a year since 1987, their quality adjusted price has fallen at an average rate of 15%+10%=25% per year. 失業(yè)率Unemployment Rate 失業(yè)率被定義成失業(yè)人數(shù)與勞動力之比。 The unemployment rate i

28、s defined as the ratio of the number of unemployed to the labor force 勞動力被定義成就業(yè)人數(shù)與失業(yè)人數(shù)之和。 The labor force is defined as the sum of those employed and those unemployed. 什么決定一個工人是否被算作失業(yè)者？What determines whether a worker is counted as unemployed? 美國在1940 年、其他國家在更近以前，在失業(yè)辦公室登記的人數(shù)是失業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)的唯一可得的來源。 Until the

29、1940s in the United States, and more recently in other countries, the number of people registered at unemployment office was the only available source of data on unemployment. 那些沒有激勵進(jìn)行登記的人不被計(jì)入。 Those who had no incentive to register were not counted. 福利體系不夠慷慨的國家，失業(yè)者就更有可能不去登記，測量到的失業(yè)率就更小。 Countries wi

30、th less generous benefit systems were likely to have fewer unemployed registering, and therefore smaller measured unemployment rates. 什么決定一個工人是否被算作失業(yè)者？What determines whether a worker is counted as unemployed?今天，許多國家依靠大規(guī)模的家庭調(diào)查來計(jì)算失業(yè)率。 Today, most countries rely on large surveys of households to compu

31、te the unemployment rate. 在美國，這一調(diào)查被稱作當(dāng)前人口調(diào)查。 In the United States, this survey is called the Current Population Survey (CPS). 該調(diào)查基于每月對6萬戶家庭的訪談。 It relies on interviews of 60,000 households every month. 什么決定一個工人是否被算作失業(yè)者？What determines whether a worker is counted as unemployed?如果在過去的四個星期內(nèi)，一個人沒有工作，而且一

32、直在尋找工作，這一調(diào)查就把他（她）歸入失業(yè)者。 The survey classifies a person as unemployed if he or she does not have a job and has been looking for work in the last four weeks. 那些沒有工作但也沒有在找工作的被記入非勞動力。 Those not working and not looking for work are counted as not in the labor force. 當(dāng)失業(yè)率很高時(shí)，那些沒有工作的人放棄了找工作，因而不被計(jì)入失業(yè)者。這些人被稱

33、作氣餒的工人。 When unemployment is high, some of those without jobs give up looking for work and therefore are no longer counted as unemployed. These people are known as discouraged workers. 什么決定一個工人是否被算作失業(yè)者？What determines whether a worker is counted as unemployed? 一個更高的失業(yè)率通常和一個更低的參工率相聯(lián)系。參工率是勞動力與工作年齡的總?cè)丝?/p>

34、的比率。 A higher unemployment rate is typically associate with a lower participation rate, defined as the ratio of the labor force to the total population of working age. 為什么要關(guān)心失業(yè)率？Why Care about Unemployment? 宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家關(guān)心失業(yè)率有兩個原因： Macroeconomists care about unemployment for two main reasons: 失業(yè)率告訴他們一個經(jīng)濟(jì)是否

35、運(yùn)行在其正常水平上。The unemployment rate tells them something about whether an economy is operating above or below its normal level. 失業(yè)率有重要的社會后果。Unemployment has important social consequences. 失業(yè)與經(jīng)濟(jì)活動Unemployment and Activity 在大多數(shù)國家，失業(yè)率變化與GDP增長之間都有一個清晰的關(guān)系。 In most countries, there is a clear relation between

36、 the change in unemployment and GDP growth. 這一關(guān)系被稱作奧肯定律。 This relation is known as Okuns law. 它表示高的產(chǎn)出增長率通常與失業(yè)率的下降相聯(lián)系，低的產(chǎn)出增長率與失業(yè)率的上升相聯(lián)系。 It shows that high output growth is typically associated with a decrease in the unemployment rate, and low output growth is associated with an increase in the unemp

37、loyment rate. 奧肯定律Okuns Law 失業(yè)與經(jīng)濟(jì)活動Unemployment and Activity 如果當(dāng)前失業(yè)率過高，就需要通過一段時(shí)期更高的增長來加以降低。 If the current unemployment rate is too high, it will take a period of higher growth to reduce it. 如果相反的，失業(yè)率比較合適，那么產(chǎn)出應(yīng)該維持在與一個不變的失業(yè)率相當(dāng)?shù)脑鲩L率上。 If, instead, the unemployment rate is about right, then output shoul

38、d grow at the rate that is consistent with an unchanged unemployment rate. 因此，失業(yè)率為宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家提供了一個信號，以判斷經(jīng)濟(jì)處于何等位置，怎樣的增長率是合意的。 The unemployment rate therefore provides macroeconomists with a signal of where the economy stands and what growth rate might be desirable. 失業(yè)的社會影響Social Implications of Unemployme

39、nt 宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家關(guān)心失業(yè)的另一個理由是它對于失業(yè)者福利的直接影響。 Macroeconomists also care about unemployment because its direct effects on the welfare of the unemployed. 失業(yè)總是與金錢與心理的苦難相聯(lián)系。 Unemployment is associated with financial and psychological suffering. 一些群體（年輕人、少數(shù)族裔和非熟練工人）從失業(yè)中受到更大的損害。 Some groups (often the young, the eth

40、nic minorities, and the unskilled) suffer disproportionately from unemployment. 通貨膨脹率Inflation Rate 通貨膨脹是一般價(jià)格水平的持續(xù)上升。 Inflation is a sustained rise in the general level of prices, a sustained rise in the price level. 通貨膨脹率（通脹率）是價(jià)格水平上升的速度。 The inflation rate is the rate at which the price level incre

41、ases. 宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家通常看兩種衡量價(jià)格水平的指標(biāo)或價(jià)格指數(shù)：GDP平減指數(shù)和消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)。 Macroeconomists typically look at two measures of the price level, at two price indexes: the GDP deflator and the consumer price index. GDP平減指數(shù)The GDP Deflator 第t年的GDP平減指數(shù)Pt 被定義成第t年的名義GDP與實(shí)際GDP的比率。 The GDP deflator in year t , Pt , is defined as the ra

42、tio of nominal GDP to real GDP in year t: 這樣，名義GDP等于GDP平減指數(shù)乘以實(shí)際GDP。 Thus nominal GDP is equal to the GDP deflator times real GDP. GDP平減指數(shù)The GDP DeflatorGDP平減指數(shù)是一個指數(shù)。 The GDP deflator is an index number. 它的水平值是人為選定的，沒有經(jīng)濟(jì)含義。 Its level is chosen arbitrarily and has no economic interpretation. 但是它的變化率有

43、一個明確的經(jīng)濟(jì)含義：它給出了一般價(jià)格水平隨時(shí)間上升的速度通貨膨脹率。 But its rate of change has a clear economic interpretation: It gives the rate at which the general level of prices goes up over time the rate of inflation. 消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)The Consumer Price Index GDP 平減指數(shù)給出了GDP 中包括的物品經(jīng)濟(jì)中生產(chǎn)的最終物品的平均價(jià)格。 The GDP deflator gives the average price

44、 of the goods included in GDP the final goods produced in the economy. 消費(fèi)者關(guān)心的是他們消費(fèi)的物品的平均價(jià)格。 Consumers care about the average price of the goods they consume. 兩種價(jià)格未必相同 The two prices need not to be the same: GDP中的某些物品沒有賣給消費(fèi)者，而是賣給了企業(yè)（例如機(jī)器）、政府或者外國人。Some of the goods in GDP are sold not to consumers but

45、 to firms (e.g., machine tools), to the government, or to foreigners. 消費(fèi)者購買的一些物品不是國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)的，而是從國外進(jìn)口的。Some of the goods bought by consumers are not produced at home, but rather imported from abroad. 消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)The Consumer Price Index 為了測量消費(fèi)的平均價(jià)格，或者說，生活費(fèi)用，宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家觀察另一個指數(shù)消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)（CPI）。 To measure the average price

46、 of consumption, or equivalently, the cost of living, macroeconomists look at another index, the consumer price index (CPI). CPI給出了不同時(shí)期給定清單的物品和服務(wù)以貨幣單位衡量的費(fèi)用。 The CPI gives the cost in dollars of a specific list of goods and services over time. 消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)The Consumer Price Index 這一清單基于對消費(fèi)者支出的細(xì)致研究，旨在代表一個典型

47、的城市（農(nóng)村）消費(fèi)者的消費(fèi)。 The list, which is based on a detailed study of consumer spending, attempts to represent the consumption of a typical urban consumer. 這一清單每10年修訂1次（中國：5年大調(diào)，每年微調(diào)。） It is revised every 10 years. 每個月，勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局的雇員都要調(diào)查商店，以搜集列在清單上的物品的價(jià)格。 Each month, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employees vis

48、it stores to collect prices of the goods on the list. 計(jì)算消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)和通貨膨脹率：一個例子Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example 計(jì)算消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)和通貨膨脹率：一個例子Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example計(jì)算消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)和通貨膨脹率：一個例子Calculating the Consumer Price Index and th

49、e Inflation Rate: An Example計(jì)算消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)和通貨膨脹率：一個例子Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example計(jì)算消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)和通貨膨脹率：一個例子Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example使用CPI 和GDP 平減指數(shù)的通貨膨脹率Inflation Rate using the CPI and the GDP deflator 1965Percentper Year

50、1510501970197519801985199019952000CPIGDP deflator通貨膨脹與失業(yè)Inflation and Unemployment 通貨膨脹與產(chǎn)出或失業(yè)之間確實(shí)存在一定的關(guān)系。但這種關(guān)系并不固定，而是隨時(shí)間和國家而不同。 There is a relation between inflation and either output or unemployment, but it is far from mechanical it varies across time and country. 美國自1979年以來，失業(yè)率與通脹的變化之間表現(xiàn)出一種負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。

51、In the U.S. since 1970, there is a negative relation between the unemployment rate and the change in inflation. 這一負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系被稱作菲利普斯關(guān)系，相應(yīng)的曲線就是菲利普斯曲線。 This negative relation is called the Phillips relation, and the curve is called the Phillips Curve. 通貨膨脹與失業(yè)Inflation and Unemployment 為什么經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家會關(guān)心通脹？Why Do Ec

52、onomists Care About Inflation? 如果更高的通貨膨脹僅僅意味著所有價(jià)格和工資成比例上升得更快所謂純粹通貨膨脹通脹只會帶來小小的麻煩。 If higher inflation meant just a faster proportional increase in all prices and wage a case call pure inflation inflation would be only a minor inconvenience. 工人的實(shí)際工資以物品而非貨幣衡量的工資將會保持不變。 The workers real wage the wage me

53、asured in terms of goods rather than in dollars would remain the same. 為什么經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家會關(guān)心通脹？Why Do Economists Care About Inflation?經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家關(guān)心通脹恰是因?yàn)樘煜聸]有純粹的通脹。 Economists care about inflation precisely because there is no such thing as pure inflation. 在通脹期間，由于并非所有的價(jià)格和工資同比例上升，通脹影響了收入分配。 During period of inflation,

54、 because not all prices and wages rise proportionately, inflation affects income distribution. 在許多國家，退休者的收入不隨價(jià)格水平調(diào)整。 Retirees in many country receive payments that do not keep up with the price level. 為什么經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家會關(guān)心通脹？Why Do Economists Care About Inflation?通脹還會導(dǎo)致扭曲。 Inflation also leads to distortions.

55、一些價(jià)格由于被法律固定或者受到管制，比其他價(jià)格調(diào)整得更緩慢，這就導(dǎo)致了相對價(jià)格變動。 Some prices, which are fixed by law or by regulation, lag behind the others, leading to changes in relative prices. 如果稅收檔次不隨通脹調(diào)整，當(dāng)名義收入增加時(shí)，人們就會進(jìn)入更高的稅收檔次，即使實(shí)際收入不變。這被稱為稅級潛移。 If tax brackets are not adjusted for inflation, people move into higher tax brackets a

56、s their nominal income increases, even if their real income remains the same. This is known as bracket creep. 為什么經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家會關(guān)心通脹？Why Do Economists Care About Inflation?相對價(jià)格的變動也會導(dǎo)致更大的不確定性，使得企業(yè)更難做出關(guān)于未來的決策，例如投資決策。 Variation in relative prices also lead to more uncertainty, making it harder for firms to make

57、decisions about the future, such as investment decision. 為什么經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家會關(guān)心通脹？Why Do Economists Care About Inflation?經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為高通脹影響了收入分配，造成了扭曲與不確定性。 Economists see high inflation as affecting income distribution, and creating both distortions and uncertainty. 中國的主要宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量 國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值就業(yè)與失業(yè)價(jià)格指數(shù)中國的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP） 中國的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值

58、的統(tǒng)計(jì)以生產(chǎn)法（增加值法）為主。年度支出法核算也同時(shí)進(jìn)行，作為驗(yàn)證的依據(jù)。沒有公布完整的收入法核算結(jié)果。中國的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP） GDP數(shù)據(jù)按季度（累計(jì)數(shù)）和年度由國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局公布。季度數(shù)據(jù)的發(fā)布（生產(chǎn)法，季后17-20 日）季度新聞發(fā)布會國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局網(wǎng)站： 中國經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣月報(bào)年度數(shù)據(jù)的發(fā)布（生產(chǎn)法和支出法）統(tǒng)計(jì)公報(bào)（次年2月）中國統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒（次年8月出版）對中國GDP數(shù)據(jù)可靠性的質(zhì)疑 質(zhì)疑的依據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)關(guān)系異常：地方之和大于全國經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的經(jīng)驗(yàn)關(guān)系異常：發(fā)電量對GDP的彈性可能的原因“技術(shù)性”問題全面調(diào)查vs. 抽樣調(diào)查實(shí)際（不變價(jià)）GDP 計(jì)算中的價(jià)格問題服務(wù)業(yè)核算薄弱“真實(shí)性”問題某些統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)容易

59、受到某些地方的干擾 中國失業(yè)率的衡量 我國目前官方公布的失業(yè)率衡量指標(biāo)是城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)率： 城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)率= 城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)人數(shù)/（城鎮(zhèn)單位就業(yè)人員-使用的農(nóng)村勞動力-聘用的離退休人員-聘用的港澳臺及外方人員）+不在崗職工+ 城鎮(zhèn)私營業(yè)主+城鎮(zhèn)個體戶主+城鎮(zhèn)私營企業(yè)及個體就業(yè)人員+ 城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)人數(shù)）城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)人數(shù)由勞動與社會保障部（ ）負(fù)責(zé)收集。目前可獲得的是季度和年度數(shù)據(jù)。見中國經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣月報(bào)、統(tǒng)計(jì)公報(bào)、中國統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒和中國勞動統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒。中國失業(yè)率衡量的基本問題 一般認(rèn)為，中國失業(yè)率明顯被低估了。登記失業(yè)率未考慮失業(yè)但未登記的工人。下崗職工(laid-off workers) 不記入失業(yè)者，而卻

60、記入了勞動力。2004年末下崗職工總數(shù)為421萬，而同時(shí)的城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)人數(shù)為800 萬。沒有考慮農(nóng)村剩余勞動力。 中國價(jià)格水平的衡量 生產(chǎn)價(jià)格統(tǒng)計(jì)工業(yè)品出廠價(jià)格指數(shù)原材料、燃料、動力購進(jìn)價(jià)格指數(shù)固定資產(chǎn)投資價(jià)格指數(shù)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)資料價(jià)格指數(shù)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)價(jià)格指數(shù)消費(fèi)價(jià)格統(tǒng)計(jì)居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)（CPI），又分為城市、農(nóng)村CPI 商品零售價(jià)格指數(shù)其他房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格指數(shù)：包括房屋銷售價(jià)格指數(shù)、土地交易價(jià)格指數(shù)和房屋租賃價(jià)格指數(shù)不給出GDP平減指數(shù)，需要根據(jù)名義和實(shí)際GDP進(jìn)行推算。 中國價(jià)格水平的衡量：CPI 各類價(jià)格統(tǒng)計(jì)的主要部門是國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局城市社會經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)查總隊(duì)和農(nóng)村社會經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)查總隊(duì)。CPI的權(quán)重來源于11萬城市